[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040519
SWODY2
SPC AC 040518

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST SUN DEC 03 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
IS WELL UNDERWAY...ALREADY PENETRATING DEEP INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BY 12Z TUESDAY. DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO AREAS NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  

SOME MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
BEGIN TO OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SURFACE RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS.  AND...AS ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES...WITHIN THE PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE POLAR
TROUGH...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BENEATH THE
CONFLUENT REGIME TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. ROCKIES.  AN INFLUX
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS COULD  OCCUR WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE.  BUT...AT THE
PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TOO MINIMAL TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 12/04/2006