[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020536
SWODY2
SPC AC 020535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN THE POLAR WESTERLIES
WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  DIGGING IMPULSES WITHIN THIS REGIME...UPSTREAM OF
TROUGH AXIS...ARE PROGGED TO MERGE INTO ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...NEAR/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  SOME
DIFFERENCE EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS
OCCURS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO
THE FORECAST INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED
SURFACE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST.  COMMENCEMENT OF
MORE RAPID SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SEEM POSSIBLE ABOVE WARM FRONTAL
INVERSION LAYER ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...BUT THE MOST
VIGOROUS WARM SECTOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL
OFFSHORE.  RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 12/02/2006