[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 311730
SWODY2
SPC AC 311729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC...ERN
VA...SRN MD AND DE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO AND FAR
WRN KS...

...ERN SEABOARD...
BASED ON THE HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK OF ERNESTO/SEE TPC
FORECAST ADVISORY 28...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE A NWD MOVEMENT AND SHOULD BE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NC BY 12Z
FRI. ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM...SOME
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT BEFORE ERNESTO
MOVES INLAND NEAR WILMINGTON NC. STRONG ELY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS NC FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE OF INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AT 12Z FRIDAY SHOW
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF NC WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF THE CENTER WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS EAST OF I-40 AND I-95. THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS
THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES FURTHER INLAND. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD ACROSS ERN NC TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO CONTINUE NWD INTO ERN VA...MD AND DE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO.

...SRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AND THE
FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AFFECT THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
EXTENDING NWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN CO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE IN THE 55-65 F RANGE. AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS SE
CO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR A BAND OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN ERN CO BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN CO FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
MAY ALSO OCCUR AS AN MCS MOVES SWD ACROSS SERN CO BY EARLY EVENING.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL UPGRADE THE AREA TO SLIGHT RISK.

FURTHER SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER-TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS
REASON...ANY THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 08/31/2006