[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 310524
SWODY2
SPC AC 310523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS PARTS OF THE  MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. 
BUT...IN GENERAL TERMS...AN AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO BEGIN SPLIT AS IT VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITHIN
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES...WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...AND BEGIN
TO EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WHILE THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT OR REDEVELOP EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AS MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ROTATE
AROUND ITS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.  AS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ERNESTO INTERACTS WITH THIS FEATURE...TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD
BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION.  LATER IN THE DAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE HEATING STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS SAME
REGION...IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. IF THIS OCCURS...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL STATES...
MODELS STILL VARY SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE TIMING OF INITIAL COOL
SURGE INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING
MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS ALSO A CONCERN TO
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION IN MORE MOIST POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW 
REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PAINS.  IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY
...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION.  BUT...PEAK LATE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 TO  1500 J/KG...IN ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SEEMS LIKELY TO MARGINALIZE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 08/31/2006