[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 240538
SWODY2
SPC AC 240537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN WI TO SRN PORTIONS
OF LAKE MI...

NRN PLAINS SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE DAY2
PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID A BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE
FROM PORTIONS OF MN...SEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THIS REGION
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST/BUOYANT THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE COOL SECTOR PRIOR TO LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS WITHIN THIS ZONE...IT APPEARS ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE TOO WEAK
FOR MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BENEATH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS 18Z.  STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN IL
INTO SERN WI...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW...ALLOWING A NARROW
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...1500-2000 J/KG.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS...OR PERHAPS
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...SHOULD EVOLVE OVER SERN WI BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ESEWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI.  HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

...CNTRL PLAINS...

TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO KS AND SERN CO FRIDAY AS
MAIN BELT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION. 
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT PROVE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE THAN
WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT.  MODELS
DIFFER ON SWD EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/OK...POSSIBLY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW PROCESSES.  STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD OCCUR IN ZONE OF GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 08/24/2006