[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 180554
SWODY2
SPC AC 180553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED INTO THE SRN U.S. SATURDAY
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SFC PRESSURES WILL RISE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ANY MEANINGFUL
FLOW ALOFT INTO THAT REGION MOSTLY DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGING.

...OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM UPSTATE NY...SWWD INTO SRN IL BY EARLY EVENING. 
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES.
 AS EXPECTED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MOIST PROFILES ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  DUE TO
MOIST PROFILES IT APPEARS ANY ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL PROVE
EFFICIENT IN GENERATING CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AIRMASS SHOULD BE
MOST BUOYANT ALONG AN E-W AXIS SOUTH OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY REGION.  AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY INTO NRN TN WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
EVEN SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME...DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG COLD FRONT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...

NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO ERN NM DURING THE PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS SWWD ACROSS KS
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK
UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE.  GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN WEAKLY CONVERGENT
FRONTAL ZONE INTO OK COULD GENERATE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.  THIS
REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURSTS DUE TO STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB CLOUD AIRMASS.

..DARROW.. 08/18/2006