[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141707
SWODY2
SPC AC 141706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM
FLOW BELT...AND MESSY RIDGING WITH SOME WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN STATES.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
-- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER ONT AND UPPER GREAT LAKES -- IS FCST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN QUE...NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY-2. 
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...TRAILING SWWD ACROSS TN/NRN GA AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY
OVER OK.

MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF W COAST AND
GREAT BASIN REGIONS...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 49N147W.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN AND DIG SEWD...MOVING ONSHORE NRN CA LATE DAY-2 OR EARLY
DAY-3. SWLY FLOW ALOFT -- POSSIBLY WITH ONE OR TWO WEAK/EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS -- SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS
BY 16/00Z...WHILE MIDLEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EWD OVER DAKOTAS. 
ASSOCIATED LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FCST AT SFC ACROSS PORTIONS
NRN WY AND ERN MT...WITH SFC FRONTOGENESIS OVER PORTIONS NRN MT AND
SRN SASK.

...NRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING ACROSS ERN MT AND/OR WRN DAKOTAS...SHIFTING EWD DURING
EVENING.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAST THROUGH EVENING HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 30-40 KT LLJ...MOVING EWD TO NEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS DAKOTAS.  OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE.  AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER AND THEN E OF THIS
AREA...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT AND LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS
IN LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR. FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST MRGL POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
ASSOCIATED RISK OF HAIL.  LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE...DESPITE STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APCHG DRY ADIABATIC.  HOWEVER...WELL-MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYERS DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
NEAR-SFC LAYER COOLS SUBSTANTIALLY...WILL SUPPORT HAIL/GUSTS NEAR
SVR LIMITS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP.

...SERN CONUS...
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY...MOISTURE...HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON CINH ARE
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS.  RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE -- CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID
70S F -- WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND S OF FRONT.  A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING
PRIMARY FOCI.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  WEAKNESS OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW
AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR TO PRECLUDE WELL ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. 
CONVERGENCE ALONG CAROLINAS/GA PORTION OF FRONT MAY BE REDUCED BY
ISALLOBARIC INFLUENCES ON SFC WIND FIELDS RELATED TO LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER BAHAMAS.  REF NHC OUTLOOKS UNDER ABNT20 KNHC
FOR LATEST INFO ON TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG WRN SEGMENT OF FRONT -- ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER MS
VALLEY -- MAY BE ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
PORTION OF WEAK/SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW DRIFTING NEWD FROM W-CENTRAL
TX.

...SWRN CONUS...
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SRN NM AND SERN AZ...AS WELL AS
FAR W TX...DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SVR
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE TSTMS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. 
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
DAY-2...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 60S F LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
50S IN MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTMS WITH WEAK CINH AND
HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS.  ONE
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED PRECIP...LEFT BEHIND BY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY DAY-1.
 THIS WOULD DELAY/RESTRICT SFC HEATING BUT ALSO FOCUS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES.

..EDWARDS.. 08/14/2006