[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140550
SWODY2
SPC AC 140549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN AREAS WHILE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH...GENERALLY EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A COUPLE OF DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO BE SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MOVES CLOSE
TO...OR OVER...FL AND THE ERN GULF. THE OTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SPREADING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC..CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...AND TN VALLEY AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD
MOTION MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP INTO VERY MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SWWD/WWD FROM VA TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS TO SRN VA...
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS...POSSIBLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND LAPSE
RATES PRECLUDE A HIGHER SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. A FEW STORM
CLUSTERS...CELL MERGERS...AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN BRIEFLY INTENSE ACTIVITY NEAR THE DECAYING FRONT AND ALONG
RESIDUAL/GULF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHWEST...
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION/WIND
SHIFT MAY AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NM/AZ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CHANNELED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE TO
THE EAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST...WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MOGOLLON PLATEAU AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NM. GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED BY
SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A
FEW LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...NRN PLAINS...
FAST FLOW WITHIN BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EXIST ATOP
STRONGLY HEATED AND MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BREACH
THE CAP BY LATE IN THE DAY FROM ERN MT INTO ND. PERSISTENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET...COUPLED
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EMANATING FROM DEVELOPING WRN U.S.
TROUGH...COULD SUSTAIN A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND
POTENTIAL OVER THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 08/14/2006