[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131645
SWODY2
SPC AC 131644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TODAY THEN
EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GRTLKS THROUGH MON. ASSOCD COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TRAIL SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY MON EVE.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS
MON AFTN-EVE.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
SCT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE GRTLKS REGION SWWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON MON VCNTY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
THIS FRONT WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS DURING THE AFTN.  STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING WILL EXIST ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGER FLOW LOCATED FARTHER N.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION
FROM LOW CAPE/MODEST SHEAR ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY TO 
HIGH CAPE/WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE LWR OH VLY.  AS A RESULT...THERE
WILL BE A TRANSITION IN CHARACTER OF CONVECTION... FROM FAST MOVING
LOW-TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS N...TO MORE MULTICELLULAR SLOWER MOVING
STORMS S. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

...OZARKS WWD TO SRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
SUB-TROPICAL PLUME OF MSTR WILL STREAM NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
MON.  HEATING AND FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE OZARKS
WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS SERN CO...NERN NM...AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO LARGE SCALE LIFT.  WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND MOSTLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD POSE SOME THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.  BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
PWAT AIR MASS...HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...LWR MS VALLEY TO FL...
PERSISTENT REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE...HEATING AND AMPLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY
TO FL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MEAGER. 
THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL PULSE-TYPE OF SEVERE CAN BE EXPECTED GIVING
LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.

..RACY.. 08/13/2006