[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 301727
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX INTERACTION AMONG A NUMBER OF MULTI-STREAM AND MULTI-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. ERNESTO/S DEEP-LAYER TROPICAL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MANITOBA. HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED
HEIGHT RISES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
TROUGH...SPREADING FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...WILL AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WNWWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS PARTS OF AZ/NM.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF GUIDANCE THAT
STRONG TO INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE
ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS...LIFT
ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING ERNESTO CIRCULATION...WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE TROPICAL LOW  SHOULD TRANSLATE
NWD/NWWD AND INLAND ACROSS THE COASTLINE FROM NERN SC TO THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW...AND CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING OF SRH IN THE NERN
QUADRANT OF TROPICAL LOW...A FEW ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE STRONG MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR NEAR LEE-TROUGH
AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SWRN NEB SWD ALONG CO/KS BORDER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE
80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MEAN LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 J/KG IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON...WHEN FORCING NEAR
INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK DRY LINE SHOULD
LOCALLY ELIMINATE CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. WEAK
BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM LOWER TO MID-LEVELS...BENEATH
MODERATE WESTERLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WITH SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN RELATIVELY MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM NEB PNHDL TO THE CO FRONT
RANGE.

DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND FOCUSED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH...ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE OR MORE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLY SPREADING SSEWD FROM WRN KS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 08/30/2006