[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 160605
SWODY2
SPC AC 160604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND
NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WITH ONE OR MORE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
EMANATING FROM THIS FEATURE AND TRANSLATING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN BAND
OF FAST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM MT/WY TO THE DAKOTAS/MN. EXPANSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SRN U.S FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL
VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE EDGES OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH. ONE
OR TWO OF THESE WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MO AND MID MS VALLEY AREAS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

...NRN PLAINS...
A WSW-ENE ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXIST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THE SRN EDGE OF FASTER WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE REGION AND ENHANCE
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. STRONG EML/CAP ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. INFLOW OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM CAPPED AIR MASS
INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD FUEL ROBUST STORMS IN STRONGLY SHEARED
FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
AS IT DEVELOPS EWD/SEWD FROM ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS /NRN KS TO IA/ WILL ACT AS
A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. PARTS OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE LOCALLY REINFORCED THROUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND/OR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL FUEL STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WHERE CAP CAN
BE OVERCOME BY HEATING AND SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. SOME SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT MAY BE PROVIDED BY THE
PASSAGE OF SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AND OUT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY EVOLVE FROM AREAS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. AS ACTIVITY COALESCES AND GROWS
UPSCALE...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN PLAINS WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MAY SUSTAIN A STORM COMPLEX THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE MO
VALLEY EWD TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

..CARBIN.. 08/16/2006