[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY...

...MID MO VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
NRN MS VALLEY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM WI EXTENDING SWWD INTO
NRN MO AND ERN KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS FROM 65 TO 75 F SHOULD BE PRESENT RESULTING IN
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIKELY EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
NRN MO AND NRN IL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG A SECONDARY INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO OH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM 25 TO 35 KT SUGGESTING
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY STEEP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE KS...NRN MO...NRN IL AND OH FAVORING ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD
CONFINE HAIL POTENTIAL TO THE STRONGEST OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT CO-LOCATED WITH BANDS OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...DECREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING.

...ERN CO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WRN U.S. AS A
COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM ERN WY EXTENDING SEWD INTO
SRN NEB SUNDAY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S
F ALLOWING FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS FROM NE CO THROUGH NRN KS. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO BY MIDDAY
WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THESE FACTORS MAY KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...NRN CA/SRN ORE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER-LOW
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC MOVES SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD NRN CA SUNDAY. IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NRN CA AND SRN ORE...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR 50 F ALLOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN CA
AND SRN ORE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN CA INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET
MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK DESTABILIZATION.

...EAST TX/LA...
A WEAK FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN U.S.
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELY MOVING WAVE IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WWD ACROSS LA AND EAST
TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST OF
STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/05/2006