[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020550
SWODY2
SPC AC 020549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
NERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH IMPULSE NOW
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AREA IS PROGGED OVER THE NERN U.S. EARLY
THURSDAY WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND NERN STATES IN WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE. SWRN PORTIONS OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AREA.


...NERN STATES THROUGH OH VALLEY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN
STATES SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
FORCE NERN PORTION OF FRONT SEWD DURING THE DAY. A STRONG WLY
LOW-MID LEVEL JET WITH DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NERN STATES EARLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
MORNING AS THIS FEATURES MOVES OFFSHORE. GIVEN TIME OF DAY MUCH OF
THE EARLY STORMS OVER THE NERN STATES COULD BE ELEVATED WHICH COULD
LIMIT OVERALL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER IN THE
MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER WIND PROFILES SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW ALONG FRONT OVER REMAINING PORTIONS OF
THE NERN STATES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT
COVERAGE. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY.

OH VALLEY PORTION OF FRONT MAY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS UPSTREAM
VORT MAX...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT MCS...LIFTS ENEWD THROUGH
THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG
AND S OF FRONT. STORMS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING EARLY
THURSDAY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY SERVE TO REINFORCE THE
FRONT. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE
OF STRONGER WLYS WITH 30 TO 35 KT WLY FLOW EXPECTED IN THE 850 MB TO
500 MB LAYER...BUT WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS AS
THEY SPREAD EWD WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.


...SRN PLAINS AREA...

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL NOT BE VERY ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED WET
MICROBURSTS.


...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES FROM
CO THROUGH WY WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 08/02/2006