[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 011651
SWODY2
SPC AC 011650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED FROM TEXAS INTO NORTH CAROLINA.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS.

...GREAT LAKES INTO KANSAS...

SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THIS FRONT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING...AND TEND TO DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS DIURNALLY.  CLOUD DEBRIS AND PRECIPITATION FROM
THESE WEAKENING STORMS WILL MAKE PINPOINTING FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRICKY. 
STRONG FLOW AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 500 HPA EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN, BUT THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WHERE
STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ELEVATED.  SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE
WEAKER AROUND 25-35 KNOTS BUT MLCAPE WILL BE HIGHER AROUND 2500 J/KG
WHERE STRONG INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.  THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND GIVEN 850 MB FLOW AROUND 25
KNOTS, WIND DAMAGE WILL BE A THREAT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 6.0 K/KM SO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED AT
MOST.  FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS, THE WRF IS SHOWING A STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  500 MB FLOW WILL ALSO BE AROUND 25-35
KNOTS SO THAT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SCATTERED DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...NEW ENGLAND...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY STATIONARY IN THIS REGION, AND WITH
INSOLATION MLCAPES WILL RISE TO OVER 3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING
BY 1800 UTC.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 40 KNOTS OF 500
MB FLOW.  THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45-50 KNOTS IN THE
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING BY THAT TIME.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY LOCAL BOUNDARIES
INTERACT WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE INSTABILITY DECREASES.

..AFWA.. 08/01/2006