[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010525
SWODY2
SPC AC 010523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE W COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
WEAKER IMPULSES TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. ONE SUCH
FEATURE OVER NM IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT
FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEAMPLIFICATION
OF SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SWD AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA
SWWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE ENEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -4C TO -6C AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN EXPANSIVE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF EWD
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN THAT
REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WSWLY
WIND PROFILES...WITH 50 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KM ACCOMPANYING EWD
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL EXIST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FAST MOVING CLUSTERS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. FARTHER SW ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO KS...WIND PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER...BUT A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.


...NERN STATES...

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W-E ACROSS ME AND MAY LIFT
SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE NERN STATES IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORTED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPSTREAM ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN CANADA
AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD
THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY. THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER MODERATE DEEP LAYER 40 KT WNWLY FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS EVOLVING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DIAL.. 08/01/2006