[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261728
SWODY2
SPC AC 261727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED APR 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SWD INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WILL ADVECT NWWD THROUGH SWRN AND WRN TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RETURNS TO SLY AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS E OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAINED CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM AND SWRN TX WITHIN ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING...OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH. THERMODYNAMIC AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL FROM ERN NM INTO PARTS OF WRN TX WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW VEERING TO SWLY AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH 8 KM. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO SWRN KS AND SERN CO IN VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS AREA...BUT INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT STORMS
CONTINUING SOME DISTANCE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
WHERE THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FARTHER N INTO OK AND SRN KS WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 04/26/2006