[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 250534
SWODY2
SPC AC 250533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/
OZARKS REGION BEGINNING OF DAY 2 WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS IT TRACKS SEWD
REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY. BAND OF 40-50 KT WLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST/SERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND WWD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THEN SWWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD INTO
SC ALONG WEDGE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
SETTLING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST.  COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SURGE
SWD INTO CENTRAL FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW MOVES OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS S OF FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND S OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS LIKELY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.  IN ADDITION...WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD MINIMIZE DESTABILIZATION...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL WINDS...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROMOTING MAINLY A LINEAR MODE.  HOWEVER...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...THUS CONTINUING THE OUTLOOK OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2006