[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221736
SWODY2
SPC AC 221735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE TN VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH CLOSED LOWS
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE NERN STATES AND THE DESERT SW AND A WEAKER
NRN STREAM TROUGH SKIRTING THE NRN PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...AN
OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE LWR GRTLKS WILL TRACK NEWD WITH ITS TRAILING
FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  WRN EXTENT OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE TN VLY...OZARKS AND CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A LEE-LOW OVER ERN CO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SWRN KS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL AND SWRN TX.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE TN VLY...
LOW-LEVEL MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD BENEATH THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL KS
ALONG/S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. 
HEATING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SWRN STATES CYCLONE WILL AID IN WEAKENING CINH. TSTM
INITIATION IS LIKELY VCNTY THE TRIPLE POINT DURING THE LATE AFTN. 
VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAK EARLY IN THE DAY...WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL.  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CNTRL KS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL BE
THE STRONGEST.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING
THE EVENING AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ECNTRL/SERN KS INTO SRN MO WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SWD THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE INTO W TX
SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN STRONG.  THE SW TX
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS FROM ERN TX PNHDL INTO SCNTRL KS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE PLAINS SFC LOW DEEPENS...NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH INCREASING SWLY
FLOW ALOFT.  SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST TO BOOST
CAPE VALUES AND SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
BAND OF MODEST H5 FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LWR GRTLKS UPPER
LOW AND FAVORABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A BAND OR TWO OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

...OH/TN VLYS...
E-W ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SPORADIC
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS DESPITE THE OVERALL WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE. 
BUT...SUSTAINED SSWLY MOIST INFLOW AND MODEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FRONT VCNTY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...WITH THE SEVERE
THREATS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 04/22/2006