[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...CAROLINAS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN MS VALLEY WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS MONDAY
MORNING. IN RESPONSE...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE IN THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 55-60 F RANGE MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER-END MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND AN MCS GRADUALLY DEVELOPS.
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE MCS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ANY THREAT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MCS MOVES ESEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

...NEB/SD...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES MAKING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN NEB MONDAY
AFTERNOON DEVELOP LOWER-END MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL JET
DRIFTS EWD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
STORMS MATURE IN THE EARLY EVENING. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 04/16/2006