[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 150448
SWODY2
SPC AC 150447

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF IA/MO ESEWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO THE VA/NC COASTS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY INTENSIFYING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
W...RIDGING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO HUDSON BAY...AND CLOSED
MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. 
WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION...CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE
MID MO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT UNDERCUTS WRN GREAT
LAKES RIDGE...AND IS EVENTUALLY ENTRAINED INTO BROADER BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WRN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH MID MO VALLEY UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ALONG ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC
ZONE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

...MIDWEST EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO THE VA/NC COASTS...

MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S/ COUPLED WITH REMNANT PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
AND S OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MO/IL/IND...AND GENERALLY 500-1500
J/KG ESEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OH VALLEY INTO VA/NC.

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF OPENING
MID-LEVEL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN IA/NERN MO INTO IL/IND.  GIVEN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE OH VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND EWD
TO THE VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HERE TOO...DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/S LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...ERN MT...

BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...DIABATIC
HEATING COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL EXIST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH
REGION.  ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP...RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

..MEAD.. 04/15/2006