[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU APR 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NERN U.S FRIDAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE QUICKLY
ESEWD ACROSS REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING AND
REACHING OH BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...REINTENSIFICATION BY
MID-DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS WV..SWRN
PA...WRN MD AND WRN VIRGINIA. OTHER STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BEHIND THE FIRST LINEAR MCS AIDED BY
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET.


FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS QUICKLY DEVELOP
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND
DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT AS THE FIRST LINE MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
MORNING. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY MID-DAY...LITTLE OR NO
CAPPING...INCREASING ASCENT FROM THE WEST AND THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY HAVE A TORNADO THREAT...LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME THE FAVORED THREAT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND BECOME MORE UNDIRECTIONAL. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP-OFF BY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

...OH VALLEY...
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY FRIDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-DAY...STRENGTHENING
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS
TO INITIATE IN IL...IND...ERN IA AND KY SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH
AN MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS
ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS IL AND SRN IND BY 22Z FRIDAY SHOW SBCAPES
OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING FEEDING  THE DEVELOPING
STORM COMPLEX. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE VEERED...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB SUGGESTING
A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS AN
MCS EXPANDS AND DRIFTS ESEWD ACROSS OH AND KY INTO THE WRN
APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY EVENING...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2006