[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070522
SWODY2
SPC AC 070521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST AND SERN U.S....

...SERN U.S...

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES LATER IN
THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INDUCING
SEVERAL WEAK ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREAS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT
FROM NRN AL INTO SERN VA.  MORE CONCENTRATED
CYCLOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO
NC WHERE VEERED LLJ WILL FOCUS ASCENT WITH RETREATING WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ZONE.

IT APPEARS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LATE DAY1 CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS WILL AID SWD FRONTAL SURGE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR SUGGEST MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP SWLY SHEAR FOR
SUSTAINING ANY UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITHIN MODEST CAPE
ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AN UPWARD
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE WILL EMERGE BY MID DAY ALONG WIND SHIFT AS IT
DROPS SWD ACROSS AL/GA/COASTAL CAROLINAS.  THERE IS SOME REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY ALLOW ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN FL
PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE...IF SO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. 
DAMAGING WIND APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE...WHILE LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY MORE DISCRETE
STRUCTURES THAT ROTATE.

...NWRN U.S./NRN ROCKIES...

MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL ROTATE NWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S./NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG SPEED MAX SHIFT
INTO NRN CA.  STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS A RESULT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO CNTRL MT ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT AROUND 00Z.

..DARROW.. 04/07/2006