[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH.
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
NEB AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE LEE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH NEB THURSDAY WITH TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT
EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVER ERN NEB. 


...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...IA THROUGH NERN KS AND NRN MO...


PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S IS
ADVANCING NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AS FAR NORTH AS SRN OK.
HOWEVER...12Z RAOB DATA FROM DFW...CRP...AND BRO SHOW THE DEPTH OF
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHALLOW...GENERALLY AOB 950 MB. THIS
IMPLIES THAT AFTERNOON MIXING MAY LOWER THE DEWPOINTS AND SLOW THE
NWD ADVANCE OF THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE STRONG SLY LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AROUND 60 INTO ERN NEB AND IA DURING THE DAY. PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL
FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE MLCAPE EXPECTED
BY MID DAY FROM ERN NEB...WRN IA SWD INTO NERN KS AND WRN MO.
ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
AND ASCENT N OF WARM FRONT FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO PARTS
OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB NEAR TRIPLE POINT WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EXIT REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD SEWD INTO NERN KS AND NWRN MO ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED EAST AND SE OF TRIPLE POINT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN BACKED TO ESELY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB
INTO PARTS OF WRN/SRN IA AND NRN MO.  



...CNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL AR...ERN OK AND NE TX...

POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER CAP WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION AS THE EML IS
ADVECTED EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NEWD DURING THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS FROM PARTS OF MO...WRN AR...ERN
OK...NERN TX DURING THE DAY ALONG MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000
TO 2500 J/KG LIKELY. STRONGER CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
SUGGEST A STRONG VORT LOBE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG EWD ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT FROM PARTS OF
SRN MO THROUGH ERN OK AND NERN TX. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...WRN/CNTRL TN THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS...

STORMS WILL HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY SPREAD
EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE MCS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO DAMAGING
WIND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/05/2006