[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 240604
SWODY2
SPC AC 240603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FLAT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN WITH STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS REGION...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MID
MS-LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN
CANADA/NERN STATES.  

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
TO THE OZARKS REGION INTO CENTRAL TX AT 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DAY 2 AS BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH FORCES THE FRONT E/SE.  A TRIPLE POINT
LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER ERN OK BY LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2...WITH
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING SSEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  A SECOND
SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AND/OR ONGOING MCS
MAY BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO OR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.  

...TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO SRN TX...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG/S OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD THROUGH THE
TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS TO TX.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND RESULTANT GREATER INSTABILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY REGION.  THUS...GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING START OF DAY 2 ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
KS/ERN OK THROUGH MO/OZARKS REGION INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.  SURFACE
HEATING EAST OF THIS COMPLEX INTO KY/TN AND ALSO SWWD INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY TO S TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW
WEAKLY SHEARED STORMS PER NAM ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM SERN TX/LA INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING.  

GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM TN SWWD INTO AR...WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FOUND FARTHER S OVER SRN TX SUPPORTING
ORGANIZED STORMS...DUE TO BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODERATE
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE
WRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED THREAT.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY...MODERATE-STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  THIS
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH
THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2006