[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 231728
SWODY2
SPC AC 231727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD
TO THE TN VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN PARTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO
DEAMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS ON
MON.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM IMPULSE
DIGGING INTO THE GRTLKS REGION MON AFTN WILL FLATTEN THE BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS SRN NOAM.  BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE SAME FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
AND THE LOWER PLAINS.  A TRIPLE POINT WILL DEVELOP OVER NWRN OK MON
AFTN WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND CNTRL TX. THE
LOW WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SWD
MON EVE.  

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS QUITE VARIED WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
SURGING HIGH PLAINS COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SEVERE
SCENARIO IS LOW.  

CURRENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MON
EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG/S OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEG C PER KM AND HEATING...AIR MASS WILL BECOME POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE.  

ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS
ERN KS EWD INTO THE OZARKS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP AND
NOSE OF THE LLJ.  AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT ALONG SWRN EDGE
OF THIS COLD DOME AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS
NCNTRL OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS MON AFTN.  GIVEN GRADUAL LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS...HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE AS CINH WEAKENS. STORMS WILL TEND TO
EXPAND NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN KS AND SWWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO CNTRL OK/TX DURING THE EVENING.  

STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST N OF THE RED RIVER WHERE 40-50
KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
 SURFACE FLOW MAY REMAINED BACK ACROSS SERN KS AND ERN OK...BOTH DUE
TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN NWRN OK AND THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES.  THIS MAY AUGMENT THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THESE AREAS. 
BUT...AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SWD DURING THE MID-EVENING
HOURS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO BECOME UNDERCUT AND DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR
MCS.  AT THAT TIME...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE OF A
THREAT ANYWHERE FROM SRN MO INTO WRN AR OVERNIGHT.

...LWR OH AND TN VLYS...
PERSISTENT MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW ALONG/S OF AN OLD E-W ORIENTED
FRONT ACROSS THE LWR OH/TN VLYS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM
CLUSTERS MON AFTN.  REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.  HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES
SHOULD EXIST UPSTREAM OVER WRN KY/TN WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER.

..RACY.. 04/23/2006