[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 111714
SWODY2
SPC AC 111713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EPAC DIGS SWD AND FORCES A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF NOAM.  AS A RESULT...THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT
ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VLY/GRTLKS REGION ON WED.  A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN...WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE...REACHING THE MIDWEST BY WED AFTN.  

AT THE SFC...PRIMARY LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO QUE THROUGH EARLY THU.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANYING
THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH...WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE GRTLKS AND
OH VLY BY WED EVENING. WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...OH VLY...
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH MID-WEEK OWING TO SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE GULF OF
MEXICO RIDGE.  THUS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE OH VLY WILL BE WEAK WITH MAINLY 50S SFC DEW POINTS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIMITING OVERALL
INSTABILITY.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE BANDS OF CONVECTION TIED TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND OH
VLY REGION EARLY WED.  IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS/PCPN...BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD HEAT ALONG THE LWR OH VLY NWD INTO WRN/CNTRL OH.  AS
THE SECONDARY IMPULSE TRANSLATES SEWD...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IN ERN IND/WRN OH BY
MID-AFTN...THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE OH RVR DURING THE EVE.  

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE THE LOW
INSTABILITY...DESPITE THE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES.  ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY ISOLD TSTMS MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  BUT...LATER OTLKS WILL NEED TO ASSESS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CLOSELY AND A SLGT RISK MAY BE JUSTIFIED CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

..RACY.. 04/11/2006