[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 100734
SWODY2
SPC AC 100734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN KS TO WI...

NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP CNTRL U.S. RIDGE FORCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO
MODIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SFC RIDGING AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR MEANINGFUL RETURN FLOW. 
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THUS BE LIMITED ALONG/AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM MN INTO CNTRL KS.  IT APPEARS STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO STRONG HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN KS INTO CNTRL IA.  LIMITED MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS REGION.  FOR THIS REASON...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2006