[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 091718
SWODY2
SPC AC 091717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN BASE OF WEST COAST TROUGH EXPECTED TO
TRACK NEWD ACROSS SRN CA SUNDAY EVENING IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON /TOWARD 11/00Z/.  WSWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN LEE-SIDE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED IN SERN MT/ERN WY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF LEAD IMPULSE.  

PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ATOP MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED AIR MASS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING
IS EXPECTED TO PROVE EFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/
JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW/HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN MT/ERN WY/WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB. THE WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ALSO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY. 
NAMKF/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW
AXIS OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM MT/WRN ND SWD TO
WRN NEB...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...SMALL TIME/SPACE ASPECTS OF THIS THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL
RISK AT THIS TIME.  STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ALONG THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ENEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...REACHING NRN/WRN MN BY 12Z
TUESDAY.  ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHILE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES OVERNIGHT.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2006