[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030624
SWODY2
SPC AC 030623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH A
STRONG NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CNTRL CANADA AND
PROMOTE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. RESULTING
NOREASTER WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AND UNDERGO OCCLUSION
AS A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE FORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK.

MEANWHILE...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SEVERE WEATHER WILL ENSUE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THESE
REGIONS. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
BENEATH PLAINS CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD PROMOTE MCS
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING...FROM THE SRN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MO OZARKS...BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IN THE WEST...COLD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM CA TO
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY.

...CNTRL CA...
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT THIS COMPLEX TROUGH/LOW WILL
REDEVELOP INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY AS 100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK
CROSSES SRN CA AND THE LOWER CO VALLEY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR NEAR THE CORE OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER LOW...VERY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OF -26C TO -30C WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL CA
THROUGH THE DAY. LOW STATIC STABILITY COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AND POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF MODEST
DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
COAST INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY. MARGINAL HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS CONVECTION.

...SRN PLAINS TO KS/MO LATE...
NAM-ETA WAS FORECASTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
CNTRL/NWRN TX THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHERE LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS RETREATING SYNOPTIC FRONT.
HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE QUICKLY INHIBITED BY
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITHIN BUILDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE....AT LEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY AND PROMOTE EFFICIENT CHANNELING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD/NEWD WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. A WEAK
IMPULSE...POSSIBLY EMANATING FROM SRN PORTION OF WEST COAST
TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO CREST THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK/SWRN KS IF STRONG HEATING IN THESE AREAS CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP.

A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND....COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...PROMOTE LATE
NIGHT ELEVATED STORMS TO FORM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN
OK/SERN KS INTO MO. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS...IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME.

..CARBIN.. 04/03/2006