[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020622
SWODY2
SPC AC 020621

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CST SUN APR 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN PA...WV AND
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ENEWD TOWARD
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UNDERGOES OCCLUSION...TRIPLE POINT LOW
MAY TAKE FORM OVER WRN PA/WV AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY AND RESULT IN SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
AND SECONDARY LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
VIRGINIA...AND THEN OFFSHORE AFTER DARK.

...WRN PA/WV AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT WITHIN LARGE SCALE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS NWD/NWWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/WRN TO CNTRL PA. ANOTHER
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING AHEAD
THE COLD FRONT...FROM ERN TN TO OH. POCKET OF DESTABILIZATION IS
INDICATED IN LATEST GUIDANCE ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA DURING THE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CROSSES THIS AREA. DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR THE
NOSE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL WIND MAX...AND LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT...MAY SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION ACROSS ERN
OH/WRN PA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT MAINTAIN A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL MOVING EAST OVER SRN PA AND WV.

FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE DEEP
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF LOW TO
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO SRN VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN COLD COVER IN THE WAKE OF ANY MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...CAPE 500-1000 J/KG...ACROSS PARTS OF SC/NC AND SERN
VA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY AS DEEP FRONTAL
CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT
WITH INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER FLOW. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND FOCUSED FORCING OR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT SUGGESTS
LINEAR STORM MODE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING CELL MOTIONS IN
EXCESS OF 50KT. STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED NEAR THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE FORM NEAR DELMARVA AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND WIND.

..CARBIN.. 04/02/2006