From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 04:22:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 23:22:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509010539.j815def3018271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010537 SWODY2 SPC AC 010536 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 10 ESE PFN TLH 35 SSW AYS 10 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 SSW HDO 40 E SAT 50 S CLL 40 NE HOU 25 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 50 WSW GTF 25 SSE MSO 40 ENE S80 40 ESE ALW 45 NNW ALW 40 WNW GEG 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 25 ENE GBN 30 SSE FLG 65 SSW 4BL 30 SW ASE 30 NNE 4FC 45 NNE CYS 40 WNW CDR 30 NW RAP 60 NNW REJ 45 WNW DIK 35 WNW P24 25 ENE MOT 45 NE DVL 10 SE TVF 40 SSE BJI 15 E STC 25 SSE MKT 15 N FOD 60 WSW FOD 35 ESE OFK 35 N GRI 45 ENE MCK 45 WSW HLC 30 SW GCK 30 NNE AMA 25 WSW PVW 25 ESE HOB 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE THE RETURNING MOISTURE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH...FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN WHEN WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 16:07:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 11:07:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509011725.j81HPBie001526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011723 SWODY2 SPC AC 011722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 10 ESE PFN TLH 35 SSW AYS 10 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 SSW HDO 40 E SAT 50 S CLL 40 NE HOU 25 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 50 WSW GTF 25 SSE MSO 40 ENE S80 40 ESE ALW 45 NNW ALW 40 WNW GEG 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 25 ENE GBN 30 SSE FLG 65 SSW 4BL 30 SW ASE 30 NNE 4FC 45 NNE CYS 40 WNW CDR 30 NW RAP 60 NNW REJ 45 WNW DIK 35 WNW P24 25 ENE MOT 45 NE DVL 10 SE TVF 40 SSE BJI 15 E STC 25 SSE MKT 25 NE FOD 60 ENE OMA 15 WNW FNB 35 SSE TOP 25 E BVO 20 N END 35 NW GAG 30 NNE AMA 25 WSW PVW 25 ESE HOB 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NWRN U.S. LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND EXTENSION OF LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SWEEP SEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. PREDOMINANT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAVE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE OZARKS NWWD INTO NEB WHERE IT WILL SHIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SERN SD... NAM MODEL DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE POOLED. THIS MODEL GENERATES LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO AROUND 40 KT EXTENDING NWD/NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SERN SD. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PLACING AREA UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION TO ENHANCE UVVS ACROSS THIS AREA IN NWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS. MODEL ALSO GENERATES 3000-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS WELL AS 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALL FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THAT IF STORM DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE ELEVATED. THUS...HAVE LIMITED PROBABILITIES DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 04:36:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:36:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509020553.j825rrW3027736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020552 SWODY2 SPC AC 020551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE YUM 15 SW EED 30 E LAS SGU 45 ENE BCE 10 NW GJT 25 S CAG 50 SSW LAR 30 SE CYS AKO 45 NNW LAA 40 NW CAO 50 ENE LVS 60 WSW TCC 40 ESE 4CR 40 SW ROW 25 ESE CNM 20 NNW MAF 60 ESE LBB FSI 30 N OKC 15 SSE ICT 20 N SLN 30 E HSI 20 SW OFK 35 NNW YKN 30 SSW ATY 45 SSW FAR 25 SW GFK 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNE CMX 20 W IMT 20 SE LNR 25 ENE BRL 30 NE SGF 30 SE FSM 20 NNE GGG LFK 40 WNW BPT 20 E GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 30 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 50 NNE 3DU 45 SSW MSO 50 ENE BKE 50 N BNO 40 ESE RDM 10 ENE RDM 45 NNE RDM 10 NNE PDT 20 NNW PUW 40 SE 63S 40 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO JAMES BAY...BETWEEN SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO WRN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN AB TO NRN SK...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL STRETCH SWD FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... PERSISTENT SSWLY LLJ AHEAD OF EVOLVING WRN CANADA TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AND S OF ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED WARM SECTOR. WHILE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS FORECAST INVOF SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT THE EML AND NEGLIGIBLE OR POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN RIDGE AXIS WILL SUPPRESS DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT N OF WARM FRONT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF MN/WI AND POSSIBLY INTO IA. HERE...WEAKER CAPPING ALONG ERN EDGE OF EML COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 16:12:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 11:12:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509021730.j82HUFkZ005279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021727 SWODY2 SPC AC 021726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CTY DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 25 N GGW 75 NE LWT 20 N BTM 65 E BKE 50 SW BKE 70 NNW BNO 65 SW PDT 20 WNW PDT 50 SW GEG 25 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 N JVL 30 ESE UIN 25 SSW HRO 35 SSW TXK 50 S SHV 35 SSE POE 35 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 15 SSE IPL 25 SE TRM 45 E DAG 20 N LAS 30 SW PUC 40 N CAG 10 W LAR 15 E CYS 10 N AKO 40 E LIC 45 N CAO 45 E 4CR 10 SW ROW 35 NE CNM 55 N MAF 10 SSW LTS 20 WNW END 15 S CNK 25 S MHE 55 NW ABR 30 ESE MOT 35 NNW MOT 65 NNE ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM INITIATION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR INITIATION WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NERN SD EXTENDING SEWD INTO SW MN AND NRN IA. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF SCATTERED STORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT RISK WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 04:15:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 23:15:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509030532.j835Wu6h026587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030530 SWODY2 SPC AC 030529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 65 E SOW 35 WSW FMN 10 SW GJT 35 WNW CAG 30 NNW LAR 55 WNW CDR 45 E 81V 40 N 81V 25 NNW SHR 20 ENE COD 45 ESE JAC 55 NE MLD 40 WNW PIH 45 NW SUN 75 S S80 20 SSW S80 20 SE 3TH 75 WNW CTB ...CONT... 100 N CMX 25 W CWA 25 SSW VOK 45 ENE ALO 20 E FOD 25 E SPW 15 N OTG 20 S BKX 50 W YKN 40 E AKO 20 W LIC 15 N PUB 25 NNE TAD 40 SSW LAA 25 N LBL 15 NE DDC 25 W SLN 30 SSW BIE 25 WNW FNB 15 WSW FLV 30 SSE TOP 40 SSW PNC 15 WSW FSI 35 E ABI 30 E JCT 20 NE HDO 30 NNW NIR 45 S VCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN 30 SW AYS 20 SE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EWD PROGRESSION OF BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN/CNTRL CANADA SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND AND SRN SK/MB...WHILE STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN BC/AB SWD INTO WA/ID PNHDL AND NRN MT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN ND INTO SRN MB. MEANWHILE TO THE W...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER ERN MT ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. ...NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS NRN MN... A PLUME OF VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE 60S WILL RESULT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. HOWEVER...RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOST UNSTABLE AIR. IT APPEARS THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED...SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MB/NWRN ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD LOCALLY ERODE CAP. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL SD WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FINALLY...STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. IF STORMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 16:13:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 11:13:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509031730.j83HUR7P023337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031728 SWODY2 SPC AC 031727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 E U17 30 NW CAG 50 SSE CPR 65 NE DGW 40 E 81V 25 ENE 4BQ 50 SW MLS 40 SE BIL 30 NW WRL 25 W LND 40 WSW BPI 35 NNE BYI 35 NW BOI 25 WSW BKE 25 S ALW 20 SSE GEG 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 65 ENE CMX 40 NE EAU 25 WSW MKT 20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 50 WNW LBF 20 S AKO 35 S LIC 10 ENE LHX 25 S LAA 15 SW GCK 25 NE RSL 10 NNE LNK 25 SSW FOD 40 WSW ALO 40 W CID 15 SW OTM 30 NNW SZL 35 SSE CNU 40 SW ADM 40 S SEP 15 NE AUS 10 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 NE BTR 35 ENE MCB 25 W SEM 40 NNE MCN CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD...ERN WY AND NRN CO WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIN ABOVE 100 J/KG AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C ACROSS MOST OF THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN PLAINS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH ASCENT CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAP INVERSION MAY PROBLEMATIC MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A JET MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKOTAS. IF STORMS INITIATE...THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. IF THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE GREATER. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A SLIGHT RISK WHICH MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 16:23:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 11:23:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509031740.j83HebQs027863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031738 SWODY2 SPC AC 031737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 E U17 30 NW CAG 40 ENE RWL 15 NW DGW 45 S GCC 25 SE SHR 35 W SHR 20 SE COD 55 NW LND 10 WNW BPI 60 ENE MLD 35 NNE BYI 35 NW BOI 25 WSW BKE 25 S ALW 20 SSE GEG 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 65 ENE CMX 40 NE EAU 25 WSW MKT 20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 50 WNW LBF 20 S AKO 35 S LIC 10 ENE LHX 25 S LAA 15 SW GCK 25 NE RSL 10 NNE LNK 25 SSW FOD 40 WSW ALO 40 W CID 15 SW OTM 30 NNW SZL 35 SSE CNU 40 SW ADM 40 S SEP 15 NE AUS 10 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 NE BTR 35 ENE MCB 25 W SEM 40 NNE MCN CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK TO ADJUST THUNDER LINE IN NE WY ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD...ERN WY AND NRN CO WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIN ABOVE 100 J/KG AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C ACROSS MOST OF THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN PLAINS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH ASCENT CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAP INVERSION MAY PROBLEMATIC MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A JET MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKOTAS. IF STORMS INITIATE...THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. IF THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE GREATER. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A SLIGHT RISK WHICH MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 04:36:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 23:36:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509040553.j845rnM7024742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040551 SWODY2 SPC AC 040550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 20 SSW HSI 25 SSE MCK IML 15 NW PIR 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 35 ESE IGM 30 NE GCN 75 NW GUP 40 NNE 4BL 15 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 35 SW DEN 45 ENE DEN 20 NW SNY 45 NNE CDR 35 ENE 81V 35 W SHR 20 SE BIL 25 NNE BIL 75 WSW GGW 70 NE HVR ...CONT... 115 ENE CMX 30 NNE ALO 40 N P28 40 ESE AMA 40 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AQQ 25 S AYS 30 SW CHS ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 30 NNE POE 55 SSW JBR 20 S DYR 45 NW MSL 20 N LUL 40 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ERN BC/SK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MT AND ND WITH A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK FORECAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE INTO NWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO WRN NEB AND ERN CO/WRN KS. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A PLUME OF QUITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/ ATOP BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN ND/NRN MN SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. SOME DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO WRN KS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH TIME...EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER ERN ND INTO NRN MN WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FORECAST. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AS FAR SW AS CNTRL/SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 16:09:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 11:09:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509041726.j84HQPfm011474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041724 SWODY2 SPC AC 041723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 20 SSE DLH 30 NW MKT 10 ESE EAR 40 ENE GLD 15 NNW GLD 45 SSW IML 35 ENE SNY PHP 45 E DIK 70 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 20 ESE PRC 40 SE CNY 35 SSW RWL 45 WSW CPR 35 S WRL 35 NW JAC 27U 40 W MSO 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 80 NE CMX 25 SW LSE 40 W HUT 55 NNW CDS 35 N BGS 20 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN TLH 20 W AYS 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 50 NE LFK 25 WSW LIT 55 NE LIT 40 S JBR 20 SW UOX 10 SSW LUL 20 WSW MOB 20 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL US WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM ND INTO CNTRL WY ON MONDAY. A PLAINS SFC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A SFC LOW IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN ND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...A LINEAR MCS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. IF A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MULTICELLS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL OR SQUALL-LINE CAN FORM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL US MONDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH NEB INTO WRN KS. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND ERN WY WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE PLAINS...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY AID THE FORMATION OF HAIL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER ACROSS NEB AND WRN KS THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 04:13:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 23:13:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509050530.j855UiWs002488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050528 SWODY2 SPC AC 050527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW ANJ 30 ESE FOD 35 SSW HLC 15 ESE GCK 25 WNW LBL 45 WNW EHA 35 W AKO 15 NNW SNY 40 NNW RWF 80 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 25 N NIR 30 W BPT 25 S BTR 10 SSE MOB 15 NNE PFN 20 W VLD 40 NNW SAV 20 N CRE 30 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 WSW TUS 55 W GUP 10 ESE FMN 50 NE DRO 35 SSW 4FC 20 W LAR 15 WNW DGW 45 ENE 81V 65 N PHP 25 SW ABR 45 SSE FAR 10 N INL ...CONT... 80 NNE APN 20 E DBQ 45 NE FNB 45 NNW P28 15 WSW PVW 35 SE CNM 65 WNW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH TRAILING BELT OF MODEST TO STRONG WLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO NRN PLAINS. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM IS FORECAST FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WITH SWWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO. THIS PORTION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM WI INTO NEB AND PERHAPS KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ. THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-3000 J/KG FROM NRN/CNTRL WI INTO WRN KS. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF CNTRL CANADIAN TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE UP OF MI SWWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE CONSIDERABLY MORE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR A FEW SUPERCELLS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SUSTAIN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/KS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 16:15:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 11:15:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509051733.j85HX4bt006114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051730 SWODY2 SPC AC 051729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 WNW DSM 30 NNE HLC 40 NNE GCK 30 SE LAA 15 WSW LHX 25 NNE COS 20 ESE 4FC 55 ENE CAG 40 ENE RWL DGW 20 SSE CDR 15 ESE VTN 15 WSW BKX 25 NNE STC 45 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 30 N NIR 30 NNE HOU 25 SW BTR 35 ENE MOB 15 SSE MAI 20 N VLD 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 30 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 NE APN HTL 35 S MKE 25 ENE BRL 35 ENE MKC 25 E ICT 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 95 WSW TUS 30 SE PHX 20 SE INW 15 SW FMN 40 SSE MTJ 55 SW CAG 50 SW RWL 45 WSW CPR 55 S GCC 25 W PHP 35 S ABR 35 WNW BRD 60 N ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA AND EXTENDING INTO NWRN MT WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PORTIONS BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGION OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WWD UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...SERN WY INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. THOUGH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...STRONG VEERING PROFILES BETWEEN 0-3 KM AGL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN WY INTO WRN NEB ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. BY EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STRONGEST FORCING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. DURING THE DAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE U.S. BORDER. INITIAL STORMS SHOULD THEREFORE DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISSIPATES...THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POST FRONTAL...AND THESE MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STILL...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 04:41:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 23:41:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509060558.j865wYmM004350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060556 SWODY2 SPC AC 060556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DGW 40 SSW MLS 15 NE MLS 25 S ISN 55 NNE BIS 30 E MCK 55 SW HLC 50 NNE LAA 20 ESE LIC 25 ESE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S GBN 20 W INW 15 NNW GUP 30 ESE DRO 35 E ASE 45 NW LAR 45 NNW SHR 50 NNE HVR ...CONT... 80 NE DVL 30 SW GFK 60 NNE ATY 35 SSE RWF 30 NW VOK 30 E APN ...CONT... 40 NNE CLE 10 SSW BMI 35 N SZL EMP 40 NE AMA 50 S CVS 45 S ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD 10 NNW ALI 45 NNE PSX 30 W BPT 15 SSW 7R4 ...CONT... 35 SSE TLH 30 NNE CTY 15 NW SSI 45 ENE SAV 20 S CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST ACROSS CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL TIER OF STATES. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LEE TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA AS RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR TIME OF PEAK HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND WRN EXTENSION OF WARM FRONT...LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE/ WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA N OF WARM FRONT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY... MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ ALONG/S OF PORTIONS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SWD DISPLACEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM STRONGER MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 16:11:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 11:11:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509061728.j86HScsO021672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061725 SWODY2 SPC AC 061724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S 81V 40 S MLS 40 WNW GDV 30 NE ISN 45 SW JMS 10 NNE HON 65 SSE 9V9 20 ENE GLD 50 W GLD 35 WSW AKO 55 S 81V. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 30 SW GFK 60 NNE ATY 25 WNW MKT 30 NW VOK 30 E APN ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 25 NW MFD 20 ESE CMI 30 N COU 10 SSE ICT 40 NE AMA 50 S CVS 45 S ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 W INW 15 NNW GUP 30 ESE DRO 35 E ASE 45 NW LAR 10 NNW BIL 50 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CTY 35 ESE VLD 35 SW SAV 35 NE SAV 20 S CRE ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW NIR 35 NNE VCT 15 NW HOU 10 N BPT 15 SE LCH 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL MOVE EWD INTO SERN CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY THEN RETREAT NWD WEDNESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EWD AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NW AS WRN SD WITH 50S INTO SERN MT AND SWRN ND. THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH 7.5-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO 35 OR 40 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HEATING AND MIXING MAY WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS BY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE STRONGEST. ...GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MIGHT EXIST WITH ANY MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 04:40:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 23:40:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509070557.j875vuAN025990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070555 SWODY2 SPC AC 070554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BKX 45 SW AXN STC 35 NE MSP 25 NNE VOK 25 SW OSH 15 NNE MKE 40 SE MKE 45 ESE MMO 30 W PIA 30 W BRL 40 W LWD 10 S OMA 20 NW SUX BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 40 WNW PRC 55 SSE PGA 30 SW 4BL 20 NW MTJ EGE 15 NW DEN 40 SSE LIC 15 NW CAO 45 NW TCC 35 NE 4CR 10 NW TCS 30 ESE SAD DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW 4BK 35 ESE OTH 70 SE EUG 35 ENE LMT 45 NNW SVE 45 SW SVE 35 ESE UKI 40 SSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT 45 N BRD 65 SSE DLH 20 N GRB 50 NNE GRR 15 SSE MBS 50 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 N EPM 20 W PWM 10 SSE PSF 25 SSE IPT 35 SSW HLG 35 WNW LUK 15 NW ALN 25 WNW SZL 15 NW MHK 10 SSW HSI 35 ESE ANW 30 NW MBG 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 15 NW NIR 35 NNE PSX GLS ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 30 NW GNV 20 NNW JAX 25 SSE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER WRN PARTS OF THE U.S. AND CANADA...WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRONGER...NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FATHER TO THE E...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST CNTRL CONUS RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND THEN TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES WHILE SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN IA/SRN MN. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS...POSSIBLY SWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SWLY LLJ. WHILE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MN/IA INTO SRN WI AND IL IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP S OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A FEED OF THIS STRONG INSTABILITY INTO WRN OR SWRN FLANK OF ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 16:05:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 11:05:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509071723.j87HN5Fn024679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071716 SWODY2 SPC AC 071715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BKX 50 SW AXN 35 SE AXN 30 E MSP 15 E LSE 15 NNE MSN 25 N MMO 15 W BMI 10 SE UIN 15 S P35 45 E OMA 35 E YKN 10 WSW BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W LRD 15 NW NIR 25 NNW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JFK 45 NE MKL 20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 25 NNW CAO 40 ENE 4CR 30 WSW TCS 35 NE TUS 60 WSW FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE YUM 45 WNW PRC 55 SSE PGA 25 NE U28 50 SE RKS 50 W CPR 40 SSE 81V 25 E SHR 40 NW COD 10 N SUN 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW 4BK 10 NNW RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 30 N IWD 25 NNW GRR 40 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WRN U.S./WRN CANADA TROUGH. AS A RESULT...TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE ERN U.S. WILL ALSO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE OH VALLEY NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WHILE CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS ONLY ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT INVOF THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION. ...SRN MN/IA/NRN MO/SWRN WI/NWRN IL... AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AND THOUGH BELT OF STRONGER/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND RIDGE WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT...CAPPING/INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. FURTHER E...WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SEWD INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. WEAK SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE MID MO VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUATION OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NE OF FRONT...WHICH MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS. WITH 30 TO PERHAPS 40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY YIELD THREAT FOR HAIL. SHOULD STORM COVERAGE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD NEAR SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE SURFACE-BASED...ORGANIZATION INTO A SEWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER/MCS ALONG BOUNDARY WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS ENHANCING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 04:35:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 23:35:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509080552.j885qMpO015315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080549 SWODY2 SPC AC 080548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ 30 E MLI 15 N LAF 20 NNE DAY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 55 NNW CSV 35 SW PAH 30 SSE TBN 20 WSW COU 15 E LWD 40 NNW DSM 25 WNW ALO 20 WNW DBQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 55 WSW GCN 10 NW BCE U24 60 N ENV 20 WNW PIH 35 WNW IDA 15 WSW 27U 45 SW 3DU 20 N HLN 30 NNE GTF 45 NNW HVR ...CONT... 40 NNW CMX 25 SSE DLH HON 30 WSW LBF 10 SE TAD 30 NE ONM 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY 30 NNW GNV 15 WSW SSI 30 NE SSI ...CONT... 35 SSW LRD 15 SSW NIR 25 SSW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EVOLUTION OF BROAD...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN STREAM LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN ND WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH AB/SK AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST FROM THIS LOW SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN... DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS OWING TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF EJECTING GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE GREATEST LIKLIHOOD FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO INTO WRN SD WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD LOCALLY ERODE CAP. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL REDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIALLY LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG NRN/NERN EDGE OF THE CAP WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLJ. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL ATTM FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 16:05:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 11:05:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509081722.j88HMjCn017842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081720 SWODY2 SPC AC 081719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ 30 E MLI 15 N LAF 20 NNE DAY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 55 NNW CSV 30 ENE DYR 40 NNW POF 35 WSW COU 15 E LWD 40 NNW DSM 25 WNW ALO 20 WNW DBQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S YUM 25 ESE LAS 55 NNW P38 40 SSW EKO 25 SW WMC 90 N WMC 20 NNE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK ...CONT... 40 NNW CMX 25 SSE DLH HON 30 WSW LBF 10 SE TAD 30 NE ONM 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LRD 15 SSW NIR 25 SSW PSX ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 30 NNW GNV 15 WSW SSI 30 NE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW... A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ON FRI ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WLYS DEVELOP SWD ATOP RESIDUAL MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE. THE UPPER LOW NW OF KSFO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW FRI AFTN/NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE. BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP A POOL OF MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE DESERTS...LIKELY MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM UT SWD INTO AZ. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND NRN/CNTRL AZ IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MAIN WARM CONVEYER BELT WHERE INSOLATION SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST FRI AFTN. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD CO/NWRN NM BY FRI NIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EVOLUTION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON FRI...WITH A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VLY. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MIGRATES SEWD INTO THE GRTLKS REGION. THIS MAY SUPPORT EARLY DAY TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN MN THAT MAY YIELD HAIL. FARTHER W...THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DIGGING SWD SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AS OPPOSED TO EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE LONGER OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOW THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S BENEATH THESE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. BUT...THE CAP WILL PROBABLY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED TSTMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH FROM NERN CO INTO WRN SD. COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERASE THE CAP AND ALLOW SURFACE BASED PARCELS TO REACH LFC/S. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT...THOUGH DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER INSTABILITY AND...THEREFORE...A REDUCED THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG NRN/NERN EDGE OF THE CAP WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLJ. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL ATTM FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..RACY.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 06:16:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 01:16:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509090734.j897YG6l011446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090607 SWODY2 SPC AC 090606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WSW TUS 20 E GBN 50 SE PRC 65 NNE INW 60 SW CEZ 10 ESE 4BL 35 NNE CNY 30 NE VEL 10 NW EVW 50 N DPG 45 SSW EKO 20 SSW OWY TWF 25 WNW SUN 45 N BOI 50 SE DLS 15 NNW MFR 45 N 4BK ...CONT... 140 NE CMX 55 WSW IWD 35 NNE RWF 40 ESE MHN 10 NNE AKO COS 20 NW RTN 20 NE ROW 25 W INK 20 WSW FST 40 NNE P07 55 W JCT 50 SSE BWD 10 N TPL 45 E CLL 20 S BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES AND A LARGE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TX AND THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE WRN TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD INTO ONTARIO AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF DEEP SLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING WRN TROUGH EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO CANADA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP OVER PARTS OF ERN DAKOTAS/NRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..CARBIN.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 15:37:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 10:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509091655.j89GteHp028623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091653 SWODY2 SPC AC 091652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NE GBN 40 SSE PRC 15 NNE FLG 50 SSE PGA 25 SSE U17 15 NE 4HV 50 N PUC 25 W SLC 45 WSW ENV 25 ENE U31 35 E NFL 20 WNW WMC 35 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 55 N BOI 30 SSE BKE 65 S RDM MFR CEC ...CONT... 90 E OSC 40 WSW ANJ 50 NNE MQT 60 ENE DLH 25 N BRD 35 W AXN 10 N MHE 40 E MHN 10 NNE AKO COS 20 NW RTN 20 NE ROW 25 W INK 20 WSW FST 40 NNE P07 55 W JCT 50 SSE BWD 10 N TPL 45 E CLL 20 S BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER GRTLKS REGION... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD AS STRONGEST PORTION OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE EPAC THROUGH EARLY SAT. AS A RESULT...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER CNTRL CA... WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NEWD TODAY/TONIGHT...THEN DAMPEN AS IT GLANCES OFF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MANITOBA-SASK SAT AFTN. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY MIGRATE INTO PARTS OF THE ERN DAKS AND CNTRL NEB SAT AFTN BEFORE RETREATING WWD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH GRTLKS REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS BENEATH A STOUT EML THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE/LEE-TROUGH. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRENGTH OF INHIBITION OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL LESSEN THE PROBABILITIES FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS NON-ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND FAR NWRN MN LATE SAT AFTN. GIVEN A PERSISTENT UPDRAFT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP THAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NWRN ONT/UPPER GRTLKS REGION SAT-SAT NIGHT. THOUGH A HIGHER ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...A FEW STORMS MAY GRAZE U.S. PORTIONS OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR/HURON AND ERN UPPER MI. ..RACY.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 05:24:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 00:24:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509100642.j8A6gYQj028880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100640 SWODY2 SPC AC 100639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 SSW DLH 30 NNW OTG 10 WNW HON 25 WSW ABR 45 SE JMS 15 ESE GFK 10 NW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 65 NE PHX 30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP 25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 20 NE Y22 20 SSE BIS 50 WNW JMS 20 NW DVL 80 NNE DVL ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 10 NNE RST 50 E SUX 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS ...CONT... CTY 20 NW AYS 55 N SAV 15 NE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 ESE BPI 30 ESE OGD 35 WNW DPG 35 ENE U31 LOL 45 WNW SVE 10 NE MHS 70 SSE RDM 40 W BOI 40 SW 27U 30 SW BIL 35 ENE WRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN CA INTO SCNTRL CANADA AND A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND EXTEND SW-NE FROM CO/WY TO NRN MN. SMALL SCALE AND GENERALLY WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WRN TROUGH AND RESULT IN ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT/SRN CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND PROMOTE NIGHTTIME MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST TPC TRACK FORECASTS SUGGEST LANDFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT TC TORNADO THREAT...MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD. ...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN TO NRN MN... WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BUT PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. APPROACH OF MT/SRN CANADA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH INCREASE IN MASS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD ERADICATE MOST WARM SECTOR INHIBITION BY EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 21Z SREF THAT STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12/03Z SUNDAY EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO AN MCS ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 16:05:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 11:05:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509101723.j8AHNsOf023728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101721 SWODY2 SPC AC 101721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 25 NNE BRD 40 W MSP 30 S RWF 30 SSW ATY 30 N ABR 30 W JMS 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FHU 55 ESE SOW 30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP 25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 25 NNE Y22 15 SW BIS 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS ...CONT... 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 SSE LND 25 SSE EVW 35 N MLF 10 SSW P38 70 W DRA 45 SE BIH 45 SW BIH 60 S TVL 45 W RNO 15 N SVE 20 SE LMT 75 SE EUG 35 WNW RDM 45 E DLS 50 SSW S06 15 WNW 3DU 25 NNW LVM 35 SSW BIL 35 ENE WRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS AND NRN/WRN MN... ...ERN DAKS INTO NRN/WRN MN... LARGE PAC NW UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT FILLS...NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR STREAM...THEN BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD INTO CNTRL MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...A FRONT...SITUATED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKS EARLY SUNDAY...WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS...PRIMARILY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS AND NRN/WRN MN. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. BUT... THE STRONG PERSISTENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED INITIATION DURING THE AFTN. WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING CANADIAN TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW/ MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION BY EVENING. AS A RESULT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET VCNTY THE FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKS/NWRN MN. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN. TSTMS CLUSTERS SHOULD BACKBUILD INTO THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES TOWARD SWRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER N...TSTMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF THE MCS AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/LLJ. ..RACY.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 05:10:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 00:10:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509110628.j8B6S6OF026342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110625 SWODY2 SPC AC 110624 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 50 NNE OMA 20 WNW LNK 20 SSE HSI 40 SW HSI 25 NNE IML 30 NNW SNY 55 W BFF 30 ESE DGW 55 S 81V 40 WNW RAP 15 WSW PHP 10 WSW PIR 55 NNE ATY 45 NW BRD 45 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW P07 35 NNW 4CR LVS 30 NNW TAD 10 NW PUB 20 ESE CAG 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15 NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20 SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND TRANSITION ENEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...SEVERAL PACKETS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE WITHIN A BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FIRST...A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS MN/SD AND INTERSECT THE LEE TROUGH OVER NEB. AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH WILL INDUCE WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO MN DURING MONDAY. AN INITIAL MID/UPPER PERTURBATION WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MN DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM UT/WY TO THE WRN DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...SD/NEB TO THE UPPER MS VLY... AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEB NEWD INTO MN. CAPPING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE QUICKLY OVERCOME AS INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ATOP THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS SPREADING ENEWD OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ON AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND NEAR WAVE CYCLONE...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE COINCIDENT WITH ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...OR WITH STORMS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. A SECONDARY AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. RESULTING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 16:21:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 11:21:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509111738.j8BHctS1013663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111727 SWODY2 SPC AC 111726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 60 NE OMA 10 WNW BIE 15 SSW HSI 20 SSE BBW 35 NE AIA 50 NE DGW 25 SE 81V 55 ESE REJ 35 NW ABR 30 SE FAR 35 SSE BJI 45 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW GDP 65 W CVS 25 NW EHA 10 W MCK 35 NW IML 45 NW 4FC 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15 NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20 SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING WRN STATES UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE TONIGHT-MON. AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. NUMEROUS JETLETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SRN CANADA TONIGHT AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR A MCS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. AT LEAST TWO MORE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS LATER MON-MON NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD IN WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE AUGMENTED BY THE MN MCS FROM SRN MN WWD TO ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...THEN MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MN BY MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH SWD INTO W TX. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... BROAD WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ON MON. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEAKER AS THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE DAY. BUT...AS THE CAP BECOMES BREACHED...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN MID-LATE AFTN. THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH STRONGER BULK SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE FRONT. THUS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. TO THE N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION FROM ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. MEANWHILE...A SECOND AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE STRONGEST OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY THE BLACK HILLS...AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... 09Z ENSEMBLES AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE QUITE STRONG VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX MON AFTN. SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRAZE THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLD TSTMS. AROUND 35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WOULD MAINLY BE OF MULTICELL VARIETY...BUT STILL PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 04:52:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 23:52:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509120610.j8C6Ae3V016754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120603 SWODY2 SPC AC 120602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AUW 15 E ESC 10 SSE PLN 20 N HTL 40 NE GRR 30 ESE CGX 10 N BMI 25 NNE SPI 35 SW STL 40 SW TBN 40 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 30 N CDS 10 NNE AMA 25 ENE CAO 45 S LAA 30 ESE LAA 35 NNW GCK 50 NE DDC 15 NW HUT 20 SE MHK 40 W LWD 45 ESE FOD 25 S RST 25 NNW RST 10 WSW EAU 30 NNW AUW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PBI 20 ENE GNV 40 N SAV 10 NNW GSB 20 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL 15 NNE LUK 30 SW SDF 15 SSW PAH 20 SSW POF 25 WSW LIT 15 N PRX 40 WNW MWL 40 W ABI 60 SW SJT 15 S FST 10 WNW INK 50 W CVS 20 NE LVS 35 N ALS 15 SW ASE 25 NE CAG 20 E LAR 20 W SNY 25 WNW MCK 45 SW EAR 15 SE EAR 25 NNE GRI 40 W YKN 25 SE 9V9 50 NNW VTN 20 NE CDR 60 ENE DGW 20 N CPR 35 NE RIW 25 WNW WRL 35 NE COD 35 ENE BIL 20 NE MLS 30 SSE GDV 35 NW DIK 25 ENE MOT 65 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF 40-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE WITHIN THIS BAND OF STRONG FLOW....FROM SWRN KS TO NRN WI. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE PRECEEDED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WIND SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS. AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM NRN MO/IA TO LOWER MI/IND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE FRONT...FROM KS/OK ACROSS SRN MO/NWRN AR...WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT WLY FLOW ALOFT. LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST FOR OPHELIA HAS THE HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL OVER ERN NC LATE IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE CIRCULATION COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF SERN NC WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... DIURNAL HEATING OF ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LATEST NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FROM OK TO WI AND POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY QUITE LIKELY IN AREAS RECEIVING GREATER INSOLATION. A FEW TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE EDGES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY INITIATING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE THE DAY BEFORE. SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECT CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR INVOF OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTIONS COULD LEAD TO AREAS WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE DEFINED BY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR REPEAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AFTER DARK AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THIS AREA FROM NM/CO. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR A SEVERE MCS OR TWO FROM CO/KS SEWD INTO OK. ..CARBIN.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 16:19:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 11:19:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509121737.j8CHbLbc024750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121735 SWODY2 SPC AC 121734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ESC PLN HTL GRR SGF OKC CSM AMA CAO 55 N CAO 35 SSE LAA DDC SLN 10 W ESC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 50 NNW CHS FAY 30 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE MTC TOL IND CGI PGO ADM SPS 70 S CDS 60 SW SJT 30 SSE FST MRF CVS 40 SW CAO 40 WSW RTN PUC 65 SW MLD PIH IDA 40 E WEY MLS DIK BIS 45 SE BIS 25 SSE MBG PHP CDR BFF AKO 40 SSW GLD 40 S HLC RSL CNK INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO LM AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS SRN CA. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL INCLUDE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN UT/SERN ID -- FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MN EARLY IN PERIOD...AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ALBERTA AND PACIFIC NW. ALBERTA TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER STATES. MEANWHILE NWRN TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO SOME GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL THERE VIA COOLING ALOFT...STEEPENED DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE. BROAD BELT OF SELYS ALOFT WILL OVERLIE SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. BY MID-AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT DECELERATING FRONT OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES AND EXTEND SSWWD TOWARD SERN NM. ...GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL/SRN LOW PLAINS... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EVENING INVOF SFC FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WEAKLY ANAFRONTAL REGIME AS BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIFTS SEWD BENEATH SWLY MEAN FLOW IN MID-UPPER LEVELS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH WILL BE LIMITED BY ORIENTATION OF SFC FRONT NEARLY PARALLEL TO WINDS ALOFT...AND BY LACK OF PRONOUNCED SFC CYCLONE TO ISALLOBARICALLY FORCE BACKING OF WARM-SECTOR INFLOW. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S/LOW 70S F IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF FRONT...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 100-1500 J/KG IN GREAT LAKES AREA...INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG INVOF KS/OK BORDER. STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND LARGEST HAIL THREAT MAY BE INVOF SRN END OF FRONT...WHILE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT LARGER FARTHER NE. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT RANGE AND RATON MESA AREAS DURING AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ONTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BEHIND FRONT -- FROM CENTRAL/SRN CO SEWD TOWARD SWRN KS -- ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS LIKELY IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SHOULD BE POSTFRONTAL DRY ADVECTION AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF SFC MOISTURE. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF WINDOW OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THIS AREA ATM. ...ERN NC... MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH TS OPHELIA -- N THROUGH NE OF CENTER -- MAY BRUSH ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NC BASED ON LATEST NHC FCST TRACK. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS SHOULD BE SMALL COVERAGE OF FAVORED SECTOR ON LAND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY AMIDST NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. MESOBETA SCALE FACTORS WILL MOST STRONGLY INFLUENCE STRENGTH OF MIDDLE-OUTER BAND CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO OR GUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF ENHANCED/DIFFERENTIAL SFC DIABATIC HEATING CAN DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS BETWEEN BANDS. SUCH SMALL SCALE DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM TO WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 05:15:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 00:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509130632.j8D6WoK5017258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130630 SWODY2 SPC AC 130629 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPS 60 WSW SPS 50 SSW CDS 25 E PVW 30 SE AMA 20 ENE AMA 55 NNE AMA 50 SSE LBL 35 WNW GAG 40 NE GAG END 40 S PNC 10 NW TUL 35 NW FYV 30 NNW HRO 40 WNW POF 25 W CGI 20 W PAH 45 SSE PAH 35 ENE MKL 30 SSW MKL MEM 10 NNW PBF 40 SSW HOT 30 ENE PRX 25 SSE DUA 45 S ADM 35 SSE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 40 N SAV 45 NNE RDU 20 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 15 W ALB 30 NE SSU 40 SE TYS 45 ENE RMG 25 SSE UOX 45 W GLH 30 NW SHV 35 SSE DAL 40 SSW ABI 35 SSW FST 40 WNW FST 35 SSE CNM 40 SW CVS 35 NW TCC 40 WNW TAD 30 W DEN 25 WNW FCL 30 WSW BFF 30 NNW AIA 20 N VTN 45 SSE 9V9 65 E ANW 35 E LBF 30 WNW HLC 15 E RSL 35 W P35 10 SSE UIN 15 WSW CMI 15 NE SBN 20 NE PLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY TODAY AS A PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...THE FUTURE TRACK OF OPHELIA REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LATEST NAM KEEPING THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ERN CAROLINAS...AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS ERN NC SIMILAR BUT FASTER THAN LATEST TPC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EVOLVING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS AT THE START THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA AS SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS EWD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND ESEWD ACROSS MIDWEST. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY WSWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS BENEATH 30-50KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITHIN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW. AT LEAST ONE FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE GREAT PLAINS DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE STRONG SLOPED ASCENT ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... FORECAST SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUMBER OF SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES AS A VARIETY OF FORCING MECHANISMS AFFECT MESOSCALE DYNAMICS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE FIRST POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGS SWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OK AND AR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW RESULTING IN ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM ERN OK/AR TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/WRN TN. STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/WRN OK AND NWRN TX INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FRONTAL/OUTFLOW INTRUSION INTO THIS AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG UPSTREAM HEATING AND ADVANCING DRYLINE...SHOULD ACT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM NM/CO. THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE INCREASING MASS TRANSPORT INTO/ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THIS PROCESS COULD MAINTAIN ONGOING SEVERE STORMS...OR RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TX PNHDL EWD INTO OK. FORECAST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION MAY INCREASE AND RESULT IN A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS BECOME MORE CERTAIN AND BETTER DEFINED. ...OH VALLEY TO WRN NY... MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THESE AREAS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. AT PRESENT...NAM/GFS MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN FORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WRN PA/NY LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING AND FLOW. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT...WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD KEEP OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED HAIL/WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE. ...ERN NC... ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY LANDFALL OF OPHELIA ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL PART OF THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 16:28:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 11:28:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509131746.j8DHk2A8029858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131743 SWODY2 SPC AC 131742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PRX 40 SSW SPS ABI BGS 40 WSW CDS AMA DHT EHA LBL END UNO ARG 45 SSW JBR PBF 40 NE TXK PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF MRF INK 35 ENE CVS 40 S RTN 45 SW PUB MTJ CNY PUC VEL CDR 35 N VTN 50 ENE ANW BUB BBW MCK HLC RSL SLN OJC DEC CMI AZO OSC ...CONT... HUL CXY HSS RMG TCL JAN GGG TYR SEP BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRE GSB 25 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC NW ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUE. SEVERAL MAINLY WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CONUS. WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NV/WRN UT. RESULT SHOULD BE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM WRN NEB TO NRN AZ BY 15/00Z...MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. 13/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS...SPECTRAL/NGM/ETA AND 09Z SREF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS PROCESS BUT NOT AMPLITUDE OF RESULTANT TROUGH. SFC FRONTAL ZONE IS NOW ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS WRN IA AND TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN PRESSURE RISES AND NLY FLOW COMPONENT OBSERVED ACROSS NERN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES BEHIND FRONT ATTM...EXPECT IT TO MOVE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FRONTAL WAVE CYCLOGENESIS -- AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH -- INVOF CDS-ABI AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THAT AREA EWD ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AREA AND ARKLATEX...THEN NEWD ACROSS OH...BY 15/00Z. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH OZARKS... ONGOING MCS MAY BE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY IN PERIOD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WRN OZARKS AND CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER REGION. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY ACT AS ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF SYNOPTIC SFC FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS BODY OF OK AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES GIVEN PROGGED LOW LEVEL AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS N OF FRONT. LOWEST LCLS...LARGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...STRONGEST DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEARS AND MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT ACROSS OK AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 55-65 KT...STRONG VEERING WITH 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING UP TO 3000 J/KG MLCAPES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG DRYLINE...ATOP DEEPLY MIXED AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AFTER DARK THAT COULD AFFECT ERN OK AND AR WITH HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. ...TN/OH VALLEYS TO ERN GREAT LAKES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS ARE EXPECTED INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM...MAINLY IN FORM OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE GUSTS. BECAUSE OF STRONGLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF MEAN FLOW VECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE...SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ALTHOUGH STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW IS FCST...WEAKNESS OF BOTH WINDS AND LAPSE RATS IN MIDLEVELS...RELATIVE TO FARTHER SW...SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN NC... LATEST NHC TRACK PROGS FOR OPHELIA WILL PLACE COASTAL PLAIN...SOUND SIDE SHORES AND OUTER BANKS IN FAVORED SECTOR FOR ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- N THROUGH ENE OF CENTER. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY...POSSIBILITY OF UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE CHARACTERIZED BY LACK OF DISCRETE STORMS...AND SMALL COVERAGE OF MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OVER LAND. A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR OPHELIA. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 05:02:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 00:02:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509140619.j8E6Jf7N020611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140617 SWODY2 SPC AC 140617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CKV 35 SSE BNA HSV 35 ENE CBM 35 S CBM 30 ENE JAN 40 NE HEZ 30 NNE POE 20 ESE LFK CLL 25 NW AUS 45 E SJT 15 N ABI 20 S SPS 10 S MLC 45 ENE FSM 25 WNW DYR 45 NNE MKL 35 S CKV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE AYS 20 SSW FLO 25 NE FAY 35 NNW RWI 15 SE DAN 40 ENE HKY 25 NW MCN TOI 35 WNW CEW 45 NNE MSY 45 W HUM ...CONT... GLS 45 NNW VCT 50 E DRT 35 ENE P07 35 SSW MAF 45 SSW LBB 25 WSW GAG 25 E P28 25 NW CNU 25 SE SZL 25 SE MTO 40 E TOL 30 W BFD 20 NW ITH 45 SW SLK 20 N PBG ...CONT... 80 NW CMX 25 ENE MSP 25 SE 9V9 40 SE MBG 35 W DIK 70 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WERE CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS. AS STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WHERE STRONG ASCENT WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS BEING TRANSPORTED NWD BY CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE GRADUALLY SWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE TO AFFECT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WAS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LOOPS OVER SRN CA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY DURING THURSDAY AND RESULT IN WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM OK TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. IN THE NRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FROM MT TO MN AND RESULT IN AN AXIS OF STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF FORCING AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION LEND CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE TSTM THREAT OVER THESE AREAS. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... A MATURE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MCV DYNAMICS...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM SERN OK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EWD/SEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY AS WAVE CYCLONE FURTHER INTENSIFIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MOVES EAST ACROSS AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW MAY EXTEND WSWWD BENEATH A CAPPED BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NERN TO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THIS TRAILING BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30KT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE COULD RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...NERN SD TO NERN MN... NAM/NAMKF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...GFS IS FORECASTING A MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE BORDER AREAS FROM MT TO MN. WHILE ONE OR TWO MARGINAL HAIL REPORTS OR A STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW THE 5 PERCENT THRESHOLD PROBABILITY OF SEVERE. ..CARBIN.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 16:07:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 11:07:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509141725.j8EHPLCK025525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141720 SWODY2 SPC AC 141719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL AUS JCT 35 S MAF HOB CVS CDS 30 SW SPS 45 SW PRX TYR 40 W LFK CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE OAJ 30 NW EWN 50 NE RWI 60 SW RIC DAN HKY ANB 0A8 35 ESE POE 60 SSW CLL 50 SSW JCT 70 ENE P07 35 SSW MAF 30 WSW HOB 55 NE 4CR LVS RTN CAO 20 NW GAG CNU HUF CAK FKL BFD SYR MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 65 SSE DLH MKT OTG FSD MHE HON ABR JMS 65 NNE BIS P24 GDV LWT GTF 105 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH PERIOD WITH LARGEST HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL CO SWWD OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. MORE AMPLIFIED SPECTRAL/ETA DEPICTIONS OF THIS PERTURBATION ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAJORITY OF 09Z SREF MEMBERS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND ARE PREFERRED. AT SFC...OUTFLOW-MODULATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM LOWER MI ACROSS SWRN MO TO SWRN OK AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD OVER SRN PLAINS MAINLY INFLUENCED BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS PRODUCED BY CONVECTION LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD. WEAK FONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG FRONT FROM AR UP OH VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD N OF SFC FRONT...MAIN THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MUCAPE. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE FROM MIDAFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING CLOSE TO FRONT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AMIDST SHORTWAVE RIDGING...DURING AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WARMING ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESTRICT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED VEERING OF MIDLEVEL FLOW TO WLY/WNWLY WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS BEAR STRONG ELY COMPONENT. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS FROM RED RIVER REGION WWD PAST CAPROCK AREA AND SWWD ACROSS NRN PERMIAN BASIN INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 60-70 KT AND 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR 50-60 KT...THOUGH WEAK WINDS IN 850-700 MB LAYER IMPOSE SOME CONSTRAINTS ON HODOGRAPH SIZE AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOW. SMALL CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME EVIDENT WITHIN THIS BROAD SLGT RISK AREA...BUT ACTUAL FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOBETA SCALE OUTFLOW PROCESSES YET TO OCCUR. THEREFORE BROAD/15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN ATTM. ...TN/OH VALLEY REGION TO NERN CONUS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL OVERALL BECAUSE OF WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...SFC AND ALOFT...AND ALSO IS CONDITIONAL ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THEREFORE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT BELOW CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS ATTM. MESOSCALE AREA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY REPRESENT PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS BECAUSE OF ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF DEPTH OF LOW RESEMBLES SPECTRAL PROGS MORE THAN ETA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SMALL DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DESPITE SOME ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THEREFORE BUOYANCY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON PRESENCE OF LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON INSOLATION...ITSELF QUITE CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD/PRECIP DEBRIS FROM PRIOR AND/OR UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ...COASTAL ERN NC... BASED ON NHC PROGS...GREAT MAJORITY OF NERN QUADRANT OF OPHELIA WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH COVERAGE OVER LAND SHRINKING DURING DAY. GIVEN THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY...TORNADO RISK APPEARS TOO MINIMAL ATTM TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FORECASTS AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS ON OPHELIA. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 05:53:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 00:53:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509150553.j8F5rQWO000476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150551 SWODY2 SPC AC 150550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45 E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY 15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD 30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY 40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX... DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS... LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..CARBIN.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 17:01:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 12:01:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509151701.j8FH19Gh028966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151659 SWODY2 SPC AC 151657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1157 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45 E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY 15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD 30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY 40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX... DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS... LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 06:10:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 01:10:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509190610.j8J6AQ50023081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190607 SWODY2 SPC AC 190606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 50 SSW RIC 50 ESE LYH LYH 30 NW DCA 30 NNE ABE 25 SW PSF 20 SSE ORH 15 SSE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FMY 25 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SJC 60 NNE SAC 35 WSW WMC 55 SSE BYI 55 ENE EVW 45 E RWL 55 SSE DGW 30 S CDR 30 W VTN 50 SSE 9V9 30 SE YKN 25 WSW FNB 15 E SLN 20 NE DDC 40 NW GAG 25 ENE AMA 20 NW TCC ABQ 60 NNW SVC 10 S DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SAV 25 E DHN 30 SW LUL 20 SW ESF 45 NW LFK 40 SSW PRX 20 SE MLC 40 ESE HRO 35 NNE POF 55 WNW LUK 30 W MFD 40 NE CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS... ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WILL RESULT IN A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. 40-60 KT OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO VA WITH THE STRONGER FLOW LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. AT 12Z TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY. THE LOW WILL TRACK ENE TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED FROM ERN VA/MD NEWD INTO FAR ERN PA/NJ...WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE POTENTIAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PA/NJ AND SWD INTO ERN VA/MD AS THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH... BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...SRN FL... OFFICIAL NHC/TPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA WILL BE A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS WWD JUST SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND PARTS OF SRN FL. ...TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES AND PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THIS REGION...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WEAK UPPER FORCING/DEEP SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA INTO NV AND WRN UT/AZ... CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND WRN AZ. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 09/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 06:05:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 01:05:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509200605.j8K65GgU026716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200602 SWODY2 SPC AC 200602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX 30 SSE FSD 25 WNW OTG 25 SW MSP 10 SE EAU 15 SE VOK 35 WSW RFD 25 N BRL 25 WSW OTM 30 SE OMA 25 SW SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 10 NW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW IPL 35 N TRM 65 SE BIH 20 ESE RNO 40 SE 4LW 45 WSW BOI 55 WSW MQM 45 E WEY 60 ESE WRL 40 E DGW 15 NNW AIA 20 S VTN 40 SSE 9V9 35 SSE ABR 35 ENE STC 10 S IMT 35 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC 20 ESE GRR 25 NNW CMI 35 SSE UIN 30 WSW CNK 20 SE GLD 35 N LHX 55 S ALS 55 S GUP 50 ESE PHX 55 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 25 NE MGR 45 SSW SEM 15 SSE MCB 30 NE LCH 40 S SHV 20 SSE ELD 25 WNW UOX 40 WNW CSV 30 NNW GSO 15 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN/IA INTO SWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SD/NRN NEB INTO SRN MN/IA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHEARS EWD...AND ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA TRANSLATES OVER THIS REGION WITHIN STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN STATES. IN THE WEST...TROUGH OVER CA WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD TO THE DAKOTAS SHOULD MOVE SSE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN NEB BY 22/00Z. MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE WAVE INITIALLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN WRN SD WILL REDEVELOP SEWD TO NERN NEB BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SRN MN/SWRN WI/IA SWWD TO NEB... SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION NNEWD TO THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AID IN WEAKENING THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA INTO SWRN WI. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...MAY BACKBUILD INTO ERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NRN NEB...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER THIS AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GREAT BASIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ALTHOUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2...A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET LOCATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..PETERS.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 17:44:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 12:44:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509201744.j8KHiiIn026216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201743 SWODY2 SPC AC 201742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MLI 30 SE OTM 25 NNE LWD 45 E OMA 25 SSE SUX 25 SSE FSD 20 E BKX 30 NNW RWF 15 E STC 60 N EAU 15 W RHI 40 S IMT 35 W MBL 40 E MKE 20 N CGX 40 E MLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE OSC 10 NNW AZO 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW STJ 25 NNE RSL 20 SE GLD 35 N LHX 55 S ALS 10 SSW GNT 70 ESE SOW 35 E DUG ...CONT... 25 ESE CZZ 45 ENE RAL 50 NW NID 10 SW NFL 55 NW WMC 45 SSW BOI 35 SW DLN 30 S LVM 30 SE SHR 35 NE DGW 35 WSW CDR 55 NE AIA 35 NNE VTN 15 W ATY 40 E AXN 45 SSW CMX 40 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 40 NNE MLU 25 NW MSL 20 WNW HSS 20 NNE HKY 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN U.S. WHILE A BROAD BELT OF STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA...IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS IMPULSE BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST ZONAL NRN STREAM... ONE OR TWO LEADING PERTURBATIONS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... PERSISTENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND STRONG CAP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS IA AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEWD BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE MO VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS NRN IA AND SERN MN. FRONTOGENESIS AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SRN MN/NRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. MASS INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONT IN THESE AREAS SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION BY EVENING AND RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ZONE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR WAVE CYCLONE/WARM FRONT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STORM INITIATION. PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS TRACKING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SRN MN/NERN IA...SEWD INTO PARTS OF WI AND NRN IL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE MN/IA SYSTEM. LIFT ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THESE AREAS AND PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFTER DARK. ...GREAT BASIN/NRN AZ TO CNTRL ROCKIES... ANOMALOUS PLUME OF HIGH PW AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE POCKETS OF MUCAPE APPROACHING 300 J/KG COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY LIMIT HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS AS THIS UNUSUALLY MOIST DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 06:01:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 01:01:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509210602.j8L61n20001134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210559 SWODY2 SPC AC 210558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DAY 30 ENE EVV 35 WNW POF 15 ESE JLN BVO 40 NNE PNC 35 E ICT 20 NE EMP FLV 25 E IRK 40 SE MMO 35 NW FWA 25 ENE FWA 30 ESE FWA 10 WNW DAY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 35 WNW GBN 45 NNE TRM 15 E NID 15 WNW TPH 20 N ELY 35 ESE DPG 25 E SLC 15 NW MLD 35 SW SUN 45 WSW 27U 30 S 3DU 10 WNW LVM 60 E JAC 30 N RWL 20 NW CYS 45 E FCL 15 E LHX 35 NW TCC 30 S 4CR 20 WSW DMN 45 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 40 SE CLL 55 ENE CLL 20 SW GGG 40 ESE PRX 10 W FSM 30 WNW TUL 25 W ICT 20 WSW MHK FNB 10 ENE MLI 40 NW CGX 20 NNE GRR 20 S OSC ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 35 WSW GFL 25 ENE AVP 15 WSW ILG 20 S WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS ENEWD INTO INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NERN U.S. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT SWD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SWD EXTENDING FROM SERN BC SWWD ACROSS NWRN CA BY 23/12Z. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES AS ABNORMALLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. ...ERN KS/WRN MO ENEWD THRU IL AND INDIANA... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD THRU NWRN MO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NERN STATES...AND SLOWLY SWD/SSEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OK INTO NWRN TX DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DUE TO STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX...BUT MODELS INDICATE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AIR MASS ALONG AND S AND E OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY. NAM LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING SLIGHTLY THE POOLING OF DEW POINTS OVER ERN KS/WRN MO AT THIS TIME...BUT IN GENERAL...MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. THUS...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS FRONTAL FORCING BREAKS THRU CAPPING INVERSION. STRONG INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM ALONG AND JUST S OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AS WELL AS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FROM MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 18:07:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 13:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509211807.j8LI7Qv0003309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211805 SWODY2 SPC AC 211804 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 15 NW MFD 40 NNE DAY 25 ENE IND 25 WSW IND 15 NNE ALN 35 E COU 15 S SZL 40 NE CNU 30 NNW CNU 40 W EMP 30 ESE SLN 20 N MHK FNB 25 W LWD 10 N OTM 45 SE DBQ 30 W MKE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ILM CAE 15 NE LGC 30 SE MEI 25 WSW MCB 25 NNW BTR 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 30 E TRM 20 SSE DAG 50 SSW DRA 45 N LAS 25 SE P38 20 NNW CDC 30 ENE MLF 45 W PUC 35 SE SLC 25 WNW OGD 50 S BYI 20 WSW TWF 55 SE BOI 35 NW SUN 35 SSE 27U 15 NNW BZN 50 ESE LWT 50 NW MLS 30 NW DIK 20 SW BIS 50 WSW MBG 50 NE RAP 40 ESE 81V 45 SW GCC 20 SSE WRL 45 NW RIW 30 E BPI 15 NNE RKS 20 WNW RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 NNE CYS 10 SE SNY 25 SSE LBF 20 NNE GRI 25 S SUX 15 ESE SPW 35 WSW RST 25 SE CWA 35 NNE GRB 40 W PLN ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PWM 20 SSW PSF 20 S MSV 25 ESE IPT 20 SE HGR 25 NNE SSU 30 ESE 5I3 20 SE LOZ 25 NE BNA 35 ENE DYR 25 ENE ARG 15 E UMN 30 SW BVO 20 SE END 25 W CDS 50 S CVS ROW 10 SSE ALM 30 E DMN 45 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NRN BORDER STATES WILL EXPAND SWD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WITH ORIGINS IN THE SRN STREAM...PHASE WITH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM LAKE MI WSWWD TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ONLY ADVANCE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... A STRONG MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY FROM LOWER MI INTO NRN IL AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCES ASCENT ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD TO IA. NARROW WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAINTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CAPPED INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF HAIL UNTIL WARM SECTOR CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SO THAT RESULTANT COLD POOLS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING AND SUPPORT CLUSTERS OR LINES OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER MI/IND BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS. FROM IL WWD TO ERN KS...CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THESE AREAS AND MAY ONLY BE OVERCOME AS LIFT DEEPENS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND IL AFTER DARK. A LINEAR MCS WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AREAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 18:31:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 13:31:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509211831.j8LIVRtp019580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211829 SWODY2 SPC AC 211828 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 15 NW MFD 40 NNE DAY 25 ENE IND 25 WSW IND 15 NNE ALN 35 E COU 15 S SZL 40 NE CNU 30 NNW CNU 40 W EMP 30 ESE SLN 20 N MHK FNB 25 W LWD 10 N OTM 45 SE DBQ 30 W MKE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LCH 25 NNW BTR 25 WSW MCB 30 SE MEI 15 NE LGC CAE 10 ENE ILM ...CONT... 10 SSE PWM 20 SSW PSF 20 S MSV 25 ESE IPT 20 SE HGR 25 NNE SSU 30 ESE 5I3 20 SE LOZ 25 NE BNA 35 ENE DYR 25 ENE ARG 15 E UMN 30 SW BVO 20 SE END 25 W CDS 50 S CVS ROW 10 SSE ALM 30 E DMN 45 SW DMN ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 30 E TRM 20 SSE DAG 50 SSW DRA 45 N LAS 25 SE P38 20 NNW CDC 30 ENE MLF 45 W PUC 35 SE SLC 25 WNW OGD 50 S BYI 20 WSW TWF 55 SE BOI 35 NW SUN 35 SSE 27U 15 NNW BZN 50 ESE LWT 50 NW MLS 30 NW DIK 20 SW BIS 50 WSW MBG 50 NE RAP 40 ESE 81V 45 SW GCC 20 SSE WRL 45 NW RIW 30 E BPI 15 NNE RKS 20 WNW RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 NNE CYS 10 SE SNY 25 SSE LBF 20 NNE GRI 25 S SUX 15 ESE SPW 35 WSW RST 25 SE CWA 35 NNE GRB 40 W PLN ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED TO ADJUST GENERAL THUNDER LINE OVER THE SOUTH ...SYNOPSIS... FAST NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NRN BORDER STATES WILL EXPAND SWD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WITH ORIGINS IN THE SRN STREAM...PHASE WITH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM LAKE MI WSWWD TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ONLY ADVANCE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... A STRONG MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY FROM LOWER MI INTO NRN IL AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCES ASCENT ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD TO IA. NARROW WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAINTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CAPPED INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF HAIL UNTIL WARM SECTOR CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SO THAT RESULTANT COLD POOLS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING AND SUPPORT CLUSTERS OR LINES OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER MI/IND BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS. FROM IL WWD TO ERN KS...CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THESE AREAS AND MAY ONLY BE OVERCOME AS LIFT DEEPENS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND IL AFTER DARK. A LINEAR MCS WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AREAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 05:46:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 00:46:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509220546.j8M5kmuV009408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220543 SWODY2 SPC AC 220542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HLC 45 E LAA 40 NNE LHX 35 WNW AKO 15 NNE BFF 30 SSE RAP 20 NNE PHP 30 NE VTN 35 WNW BUB 35 WNW EAR 45 S HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 N HOU 40 SE LFK 30 NNW LCH 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT 25 NNE ACT 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE PBF 40 ESE GWO 55 SE MEI 30 N CEW 15 WSW MGR 40 W JAX 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 NNE BLH 35 E LAS 25 NNE CDC 35 E CNY 50 NNW 4FC 40 S DGW 45 NNE CPR 40 WSW WRL 15 NNE MLD 55 NNW ENV 20 SSW WMC 85 WNW WMC 65 S BNO 60 NNW BOI 15 ENE DLN 30 NW BIL 35 SSE GGW 65 NNW ISN ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 15 ESE JMS 25 WNW BKX 30 NE SUX 15 SSE DSM 25 SSW RFD 20 SSW ARB 20 WNW LBE 20 E BWI 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 40 ESE EWN 35 N FLO 45 WNW AND 25 W CSV 20 NW DYR FYV 50 ENE CSM 30 E LBB 10 SW MAF 50 WSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AFTER MID AFTERNOON AS HRCN RITA APPROACHES TX GULF COAST.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE TX GULF COAST WHERE HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST... REFER TO LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS BY THE NHC/TPC ON HURRICANE RITA. FORECASTS ARE CALLING FOR CENTER OF THIS STRONG HURRICANE TO APPROACH THE TX COAST SSE OF THE HOU AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLE QUADRANT WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND TORNADOES WILL BE EFFECTING PARTS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND NAM-KF SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES OVER SERN TX INTO WRN LA DURING THIS PERIOD TO SUPPORT TORNADOES IN THE ADVANCING RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS AS SLY/SELY RETURN FLOW OCCURS AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN KS INTO NERN SD ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT AT 500 MB AND 70-80 KT AT 250 MB WILL CREATE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO ADVECTION AND AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE 7.5C/KM. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE BETWEEN 45-50 KT SUPPORTING ROTATING STORMS. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 17:07:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 12:07:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509221706.j8MH6ptQ001880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221704 SWODY2 SPC AC 221703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PSX 40 N HOU 35 ESE LFK 25 SE POE 10 SSE 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MCK 45 SW IML 40 NE CYS 40 ENE DGW 30 W RAP 10 NNW PHP 15 NW ANW 20 E MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SZL STL 15 W MVN 25 ENE CGI POF 20 NW UMN 60 N JLN SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT 25 NNE ACT 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE PBF 40 ESE GWO 55 SE MEI 30 N CEW 15 WSW MGR 40 W JAX 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 35 W SOW 60 N INW 35 SSW 4BL 40 SSW GJT 30 WNW GJT 50 E PUC 35 ENE U24 35 WSW DPG 45 NNW ELY 35 NNE U31 25 ENE LOL 20 N WMC 20 N OWY 20 SSE BYI 40 NNE IDA 40 WSW SHR 35 WSW REJ 15 E MBG 50 ENE ABR 35 WSW BRD 65 NE MSP 40 NNE EAU 35 NE VOK 30 NNW MKE 35 S MKG FWA 15 SW CMH 40 WSW MGW 25 SE MRB 15 E ACY ...CONT... 40 ESE EWN 35 N FLO 45 WNW AND 25 W CSV 20 NW DYR FYV 50 ENE CSM 30 E LBB 10 SW MAF 50 WSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN MO INTO SWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH /COMPRISED OF TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES/ IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WITH A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF HEIGHT RISES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. FARTHER TO THE NW...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ERN WY. FINALLY.../PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/ CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER TX COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN MO INTO SWRN IL... MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70/ COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WLY WIND FIELDS ABOVE 6 KM AGL SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS REGION INDICATE COOL/DRY ADVECTION OCCURRING IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO AID IN THE NWWD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN SD INTO ERN WY...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD AND SEWD OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO SUSTAIN ANY DEVELOPING STORMS. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS AREA. POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONCURRENTLY INCREASE WITH ANY OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 05:57:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 00:57:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509250557.j8P5v8VE029954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250554 SWODY2 SPC AC 250554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW CTY 35 SSE GNV 45 E DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ORF 35 NE RWI 25 NNW AGS 30 W ABY 20 N PFN 20 SSW PFN 45 WSW AQQ ...CONT... 45 S PSX 55 E CLL 45 NW ELD 15 W MDH 20 NW MIE 30 ESE DTW ...CONT... 35 W ART 10 NW MPV 50 SSE BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF RITA TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD REACHING WRN KY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THIS RUN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH INCREASES CERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. AS AN UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...STRONG ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE A MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW WELL THE INSTABILITY PHASES WITH LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A LOCALIZED AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN LATER MODELS...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ...TN VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MS...LA AND AL. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F...WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 18:04:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 13:04:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509251804.j8PI4R4c006403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251718 SWODY2 SPC AC 251717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GLS 25 NNW HOU 10 S ACT 35 N PRX 35 N ARG 25 WSW BLV BRL 55 E APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY LK HURON SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS INTO TX. AS SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SSWWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE NORTHEAST... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST NEAR AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THUS LIKELY HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF KY/TN DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW SMALL-SCALE LINES/BOWS WHICH COULD ORGANIZE ALONG FRONT IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN FAR EWD AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION HOWEVER...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE THREAT ATTM. ..GOSS.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 05:35:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 00:35:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509260534.j8Q5YvNk016567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260532 SWODY2 SPC AC 260531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EWD MONDAY REACHING THE PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE RIDGE...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN STATES AND SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE UPPER-RIDGE TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER A CAPPED AIRMASS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING ASCENT AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEB...KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ..BROYLES.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 05:43:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 00:43:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509260543.j8Q5hHtO020026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260541 SWODY2 SPC AC 260540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ONM 30 SSE GCN 25 ESE SGU 45 ESE ELY 20 NNE ENV 10 SSE BYI 20 NNE IDA 10 WSW COD 35 NW GCC 30 E PHP 50 SSW MHE 10 E OFK BIE 35 ENE ICT 25 SE END 30 NNW FSI 40 ESE PVW 50 SSW CVS 40 W ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE PSX 20 S NIR 40 W NIR 30 ENE COT 25 ESE HDO 10 N SAT 25 E AUS 30 SE LFK 35 E MCB DHN 55 NNE AYS 25 NNW CHS 45 ESE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EWD MONDAY REACHING THE PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE RIDGE...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN STATES AND SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE UPPER-RIDGE TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER A CAPPED AIRMASS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING ASCENT AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEB...KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ..BROYLES.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 17:25:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 12:25:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509261725.j8QHP4L9021048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261722 SWODY2 SPC AC 261721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 50 SSE IGM 60 NE NID 40 WNW BIH 20 ESE RNO 35 NNW LOL 20 N OWY 20 N PIH 35 NW LND 20 SW CPR 35 NNE CYS 40 ENE SNY 15 S BUB 20 SE OLU 35 WSW FNB 25 WNW EMP 30 N P28 60 S LBL 10 W HOB 65 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 25 WSW NIR 25 SSW AUS 45 NE ACT 50 SE PRX 35 WNW ELD 20 E MLU 30 N BTR 15 SSW GPT 20 SSE CEW 45 SSW AGS 20 SSW FLO 15 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE SRN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ANY MEANINGFUL AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...SWWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX. AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING AND ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AID POTENTIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK. ...GREAT BASIN TO KS... SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NV INTO WRN CO LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES...AOA 14C...WILL CAP RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER DARK...INCREASING LLJ AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SURGES SOUTH INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ...GULF COAST/CAROLINA COAST... E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. STRONG HEATING ALONG WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THUS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 05:53:54 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 00:53:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509270553.j8R5rRqO030343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270550 SWODY2 SPC AC 270549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG 15 NW FHU 15 NNW TUS 35 SE PHX 40 ESE PRC 40 E GCN 25 ESE U17 45 SE CNY 20 N MTJ 30 E GUC 45 NW TAD 35 SE RTN 35 NNE TCC 30 WSW AMA 50 ESE AMA 30 SSE GAG 35 E P28 30 N EMP 35 SSW P35 35 ESE IRK 30 SSE SPI 40 ENE BWG HSS 40 W SOP 35 S HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRP 45 S SAT 50 N DRT 10 WSW FST 40 SSE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF NRN CA AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND OZARK MTNS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO NOW APPEARS MORE CERTAIN BECAUSE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN AGREEMENT AS OF THIS EVENINGS MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY STEEP...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE OF GREATER MAGNITUDE IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE MODE AND STORM COVERAGE...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 17:39:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 12:39:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509271739.j8RHdOSp024797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271737 SWODY2 SPC AC 271735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 45 S SAT 50 N DRT 10 WSW FST 30 S ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 65 WSW PRC 30 NE LAS 20 WNW P38 40 W U24 50 S SLC 15 WNW VEL 40 WNW 4FC 25 WSW DEN 35 SW COS 15 SE LVS 30 NW CVS 30 S AMA 60 NE AMA 30 ESE LBL 30 SSW RSL 10 S CNK 15 WNW STJ 30 SW UIN 25 NE ALN MVN 10 ENE PAH 25 NNE MKL 55 SW BNA 45 SSW LEX 15 SW UNI 45 WNW EKN 20 NNE SSU 25 W AVL 30 SSE GSP 35 SSW FAY 25 SE EWN 35 SE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ART 35 NW ITH 10 W BFD 20 W YNG 15 SE TOL 20 NE BEH 50 WNW MKG 25 SSE ESC 90 NW ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX TO SRN MO... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH ERN PORTIONS OF OK/SRN MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...SFC PRESSURES WILL RISE MARKEDLY AND FORCE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SEWD TO A POSITION FROM ECNTRL MO...SWWD INTO NWRN TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NOT UNTIL CAP IS ERODED BY AFTERNOON HEATING...AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCEL ASCENT ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD IN THE WAKE OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE INTO WRN MO BEFORE STRONGER HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT ALLOWS BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. IT APPEARS ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE RETURNS NEWD AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT. VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THERE IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR GUSTY SFC WINDS AS HIGH CLOUD BASES AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RESULT IN RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD RH VALUES. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IF CONVECTION CAN INDEED DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...4-CORNERS... UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG INTO NRN AZ DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ENHANCED BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED EAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL READILY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST CONVEYOR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF AZ INTO NRN NM. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THIS REGION...HOWEVER THIS REGION MAY NEED LOW PROBS FOR HAIL IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DARROW.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 05:56:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 00:56:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509280555.j8S5tnsT011691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280553 SWODY2 SPC AC 280552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LRD 35 SSW SAT 15 ESE TPL 45 SE PRX 45 W MEM 50 NNW CSV 15 WSW ROA 45 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 20 NE PRC 10 E BCE 40 ENE PUC 55 SW CAG 10 E EGE 25 SW COS 10 N RTN 35 ESE 4CR 15 SSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A FAST-MOVING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES ADVECTING RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE SRN AND ERN US. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE SERN US. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE SRN US. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DECREASING LIFT AND WEAK SHEAR...NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 17:43:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 12:43:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509281743.j8SHh8mO027879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281729 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW CAR 25 W 3B1 25 NW CON 15 WNW POU 35 NW AVP 40 WNW ELM 55 N ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 25 SSW FLG 30 S BCE 45 WNW 4HV 50 WSW CAG 30 NNE 4FC 30 WNW LIC 15 SSW LHX 50 N ROW 80 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 20 SE JCT 30 ESE BWD 35 S DAL 40 NNW GGG 20 NNW GWO 40 N HSV 20 ENE LOZ 20 NE BLF 55 SSE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 200M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IN ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY BY MID DAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z/30TH. AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IMPEDED BY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. EVEN SO...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST A NARROW LINE OF FORCED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES FROM UPSTATE NY...INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...ELSEWHERE... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WHERE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL PROVE NEGLIGIBLE...FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS...SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION BENEATH UPPER LOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE PERIOD. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE BENEFICIAL IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 05:48:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 00:48:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509290547.j8T5lrDL009870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290545 SWODY2 SPC AC 290544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BGS 45 E HOB 55 SSE CVS 45 NE CVS 35 E DHT 40 SSW LBL 20 NW GAG 35 N CSM 25 ENE LTS 60 SW SPS 45 W ABI 20 NW BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 30 ENE DMN 25 NW TCS 25 ESE GNT 40 NNE 4SL 40 NW TAD 35 ENE LAA 40 SSW RSL 20 NNE ICT 20 NNW BVO 35 W MKO 20 SSE ADM 10 NW SEP 20 ESE SJT 15 E FST 60 S GDP 40 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE 7R4 35 N GPT 25 NE CSG 35 NW CHS 30 SE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO WITH THE 00Z EVENING MODEL RUNS. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...A LEE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP ADVECT 50 TO 55 F SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL TX NWD INTO AT LEAST THE SRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN ADDITION NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES BELOW 850 MB. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS COINCIDING WITH THE PEAK IN INSTABILITY. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES SEWD INTO NW TX...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 17:06:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 12:06:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509291706.j8TH5xkk004367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291702 SWODY2 SPC AC 291701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BGS 55 NW BGS 30 NW LBB 10 S AMA 50 SSW GAG 30 NE LTS 25 S SPS 45 ENE ABI 35 SSW ABI 25 ESE BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ELP 20 ESE ALM 4CR SAF 55 WSW RTN 40 NNW CAO 15 WSW GCK 45 W HUT 20 S EMP 35 ENE JLN 35 ESE FYV 30 SSW PGO 15 WNW DAL BWD 30 NW JCT 65 N DRT 40 W DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S 7R4 35 N GPT 25 NE CSG 45 N SAV 50 ESE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW FCA S06 40 SW S80 20 S BKE 55 S PDT 40 ESE YKM 10 NE EAT 35 WNW 4OM 70 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MAIN REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL OPEN AND TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN SRN PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NWRN TX/SWRN OK... STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER LOW MAY SUSTAIN AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AT THIS TIME ALONG LEE TROUGH AS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM THE TX S PLAINS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO SWRN OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN CHANNEL OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF OPENING UPPER SYSTEM. HERE...GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER. ..MEAD.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 04:22:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 23:22:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509010539.j815def3018271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010537 SWODY2 SPC AC 010536 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 10 ESE PFN TLH 35 SSW AYS 10 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 SSW HDO 40 E SAT 50 S CLL 40 NE HOU 25 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 50 WSW GTF 25 SSE MSO 40 ENE S80 40 ESE ALW 45 NNW ALW 40 WNW GEG 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 25 ENE GBN 30 SSE FLG 65 SSW 4BL 30 SW ASE 30 NNE 4FC 45 NNE CYS 40 WNW CDR 30 NW RAP 60 NNW REJ 45 WNW DIK 35 WNW P24 25 ENE MOT 45 NE DVL 10 SE TVF 40 SSE BJI 15 E STC 25 SSE MKT 15 N FOD 60 WSW FOD 35 ESE OFK 35 N GRI 45 ENE MCK 45 WSW HLC 30 SW GCK 30 NNE AMA 25 WSW PVW 25 ESE HOB 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE THE RETURNING MOISTURE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH...FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN WHEN WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 1 16:07:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 11:07:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509011725.j81HPBie001526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011723 SWODY2 SPC AC 011722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 10 ESE PFN TLH 35 SSW AYS 10 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 SSW HDO 40 E SAT 50 S CLL 40 NE HOU 25 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 50 WSW GTF 25 SSE MSO 40 ENE S80 40 ESE ALW 45 NNW ALW 40 WNW GEG 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 25 ENE GBN 30 SSE FLG 65 SSW 4BL 30 SW ASE 30 NNE 4FC 45 NNE CYS 40 WNW CDR 30 NW RAP 60 NNW REJ 45 WNW DIK 35 WNW P24 25 ENE MOT 45 NE DVL 10 SE TVF 40 SSE BJI 15 E STC 25 SSE MKT 25 NE FOD 60 ENE OMA 15 WNW FNB 35 SSE TOP 25 E BVO 20 N END 35 NW GAG 30 NNE AMA 25 WSW PVW 25 ESE HOB 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NWRN U.S. LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND EXTENSION OF LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SWEEP SEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. PREDOMINANT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAVE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE OZARKS NWWD INTO NEB WHERE IT WILL SHIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SERN SD... NAM MODEL DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE POOLED. THIS MODEL GENERATES LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO AROUND 40 KT EXTENDING NWD/NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SERN SD. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PLACING AREA UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION TO ENHANCE UVVS ACROSS THIS AREA IN NWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS. MODEL ALSO GENERATES 3000-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS WELL AS 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALL FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THAT IF STORM DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE ELEVATED. THUS...HAVE LIMITED PROBABILITIES DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 04:36:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 23:36:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509020553.j825rrW3027736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020552 SWODY2 SPC AC 020551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE YUM 15 SW EED 30 E LAS SGU 45 ENE BCE 10 NW GJT 25 S CAG 50 SSW LAR 30 SE CYS AKO 45 NNW LAA 40 NW CAO 50 ENE LVS 60 WSW TCC 40 ESE 4CR 40 SW ROW 25 ESE CNM 20 NNW MAF 60 ESE LBB FSI 30 N OKC 15 SSE ICT 20 N SLN 30 E HSI 20 SW OFK 35 NNW YKN 30 SSW ATY 45 SSW FAR 25 SW GFK 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNE CMX 20 W IMT 20 SE LNR 25 ENE BRL 30 NE SGF 30 SE FSM 20 NNE GGG LFK 40 WNW BPT 20 E GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 30 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 50 NNE 3DU 45 SSW MSO 50 ENE BKE 50 N BNO 40 ESE RDM 10 ENE RDM 45 NNE RDM 10 NNE PDT 20 NNW PUW 40 SE 63S 40 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO JAMES BAY...BETWEEN SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO WRN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN AB TO NRN SK...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL STRETCH SWD FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... PERSISTENT SSWLY LLJ AHEAD OF EVOLVING WRN CANADA TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AND S OF ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED WARM SECTOR. WHILE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS FORECAST INVOF SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT THE EML AND NEGLIGIBLE OR POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN RIDGE AXIS WILL SUPPRESS DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT N OF WARM FRONT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF MN/WI AND POSSIBLY INTO IA. HERE...WEAKER CAPPING ALONG ERN EDGE OF EML COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 2 16:12:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 11:12:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509021730.j82HUFkZ005279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021727 SWODY2 SPC AC 021726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CTY DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 25 N GGW 75 NE LWT 20 N BTM 65 E BKE 50 SW BKE 70 NNW BNO 65 SW PDT 20 WNW PDT 50 SW GEG 25 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 N JVL 30 ESE UIN 25 SSW HRO 35 SSW TXK 50 S SHV 35 SSE POE 35 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 15 SSE IPL 25 SE TRM 45 E DAG 20 N LAS 30 SW PUC 40 N CAG 10 W LAR 15 E CYS 10 N AKO 40 E LIC 45 N CAO 45 E 4CR 10 SW ROW 35 NE CNM 55 N MAF 10 SSW LTS 20 WNW END 15 S CNK 25 S MHE 55 NW ABR 30 ESE MOT 35 NNW MOT 65 NNE ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM INITIATION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR INITIATION WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NERN SD EXTENDING SEWD INTO SW MN AND NRN IA. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF SCATTERED STORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT RISK WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 04:15:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 02 Sep 2005 23:15:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509030532.j835Wu6h026587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030530 SWODY2 SPC AC 030529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 65 E SOW 35 WSW FMN 10 SW GJT 35 WNW CAG 30 NNW LAR 55 WNW CDR 45 E 81V 40 N 81V 25 NNW SHR 20 ENE COD 45 ESE JAC 55 NE MLD 40 WNW PIH 45 NW SUN 75 S S80 20 SSW S80 20 SE 3TH 75 WNW CTB ...CONT... 100 N CMX 25 W CWA 25 SSW VOK 45 ENE ALO 20 E FOD 25 E SPW 15 N OTG 20 S BKX 50 W YKN 40 E AKO 20 W LIC 15 N PUB 25 NNE TAD 40 SSW LAA 25 N LBL 15 NE DDC 25 W SLN 30 SSW BIE 25 WNW FNB 15 WSW FLV 30 SSE TOP 40 SSW PNC 15 WSW FSI 35 E ABI 30 E JCT 20 NE HDO 30 NNW NIR 45 S VCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN 30 SW AYS 20 SE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EWD PROGRESSION OF BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN/CNTRL CANADA SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND AND SRN SK/MB...WHILE STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN BC/AB SWD INTO WA/ID PNHDL AND NRN MT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN ND INTO SRN MB. MEANWHILE TO THE W...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER ERN MT ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. ...NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS NRN MN... A PLUME OF VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE 60S WILL RESULT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. HOWEVER...RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOST UNSTABLE AIR. IT APPEARS THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED...SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MB/NWRN ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD LOCALLY ERODE CAP. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL SD WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FINALLY...STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MT WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. IF STORMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 16:13:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 11:13:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509031730.j83HUR7P023337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031728 SWODY2 SPC AC 031727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 E U17 30 NW CAG 50 SSE CPR 65 NE DGW 40 E 81V 25 ENE 4BQ 50 SW MLS 40 SE BIL 30 NW WRL 25 W LND 40 WSW BPI 35 NNE BYI 35 NW BOI 25 WSW BKE 25 S ALW 20 SSE GEG 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 65 ENE CMX 40 NE EAU 25 WSW MKT 20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 50 WNW LBF 20 S AKO 35 S LIC 10 ENE LHX 25 S LAA 15 SW GCK 25 NE RSL 10 NNE LNK 25 SSW FOD 40 WSW ALO 40 W CID 15 SW OTM 30 NNW SZL 35 SSE CNU 40 SW ADM 40 S SEP 15 NE AUS 10 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 NE BTR 35 ENE MCB 25 W SEM 40 NNE MCN CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD...ERN WY AND NRN CO WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIN ABOVE 100 J/KG AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C ACROSS MOST OF THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN PLAINS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH ASCENT CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAP INVERSION MAY PROBLEMATIC MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A JET MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKOTAS. IF STORMS INITIATE...THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. IF THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE GREATER. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A SLIGHT RISK WHICH MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 3 16:23:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 11:23:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509031740.j83HebQs027863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031738 SWODY2 SPC AC 031737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 E U17 30 NW CAG 40 ENE RWL 15 NW DGW 45 S GCC 25 SE SHR 35 W SHR 20 SE COD 55 NW LND 10 WNW BPI 60 ENE MLD 35 NNE BYI 35 NW BOI 25 WSW BKE 25 S ALW 20 SSE GEG 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 65 ENE CMX 40 NE EAU 25 WSW MKT 20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 50 WNW LBF 20 S AKO 35 S LIC 10 ENE LHX 25 S LAA 15 SW GCK 25 NE RSL 10 NNE LNK 25 SSW FOD 40 WSW ALO 40 W CID 15 SW OTM 30 NNW SZL 35 SSE CNU 40 SW ADM 40 S SEP 15 NE AUS 10 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 NE BTR 35 ENE MCB 25 W SEM 40 NNE MCN CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK TO ADJUST THUNDER LINE IN NE WY ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD...ERN WY AND NRN CO WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIN ABOVE 100 J/KG AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C ACROSS MOST OF THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN PLAINS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. IF ENOUGH ASCENT CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAP INVERSION MAY PROBLEMATIC MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A JET MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKOTAS. IF STORMS INITIATE...THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. IF THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE GREATER. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A SLIGHT RISK WHICH MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 04:36:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 03 Sep 2005 23:36:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509040553.j845rnM7024742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040551 SWODY2 SPC AC 040550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 20 SSW HSI 25 SSE MCK IML 15 NW PIR 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 35 ESE IGM 30 NE GCN 75 NW GUP 40 NNE 4BL 15 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 35 SW DEN 45 ENE DEN 20 NW SNY 45 NNE CDR 35 ENE 81V 35 W SHR 20 SE BIL 25 NNE BIL 75 WSW GGW 70 NE HVR ...CONT... 115 ENE CMX 30 NNE ALO 40 N P28 40 ESE AMA 40 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AQQ 25 S AYS 30 SW CHS ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 30 NNE POE 55 SSW JBR 20 S DYR 45 NW MSL 20 N LUL 40 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ERN BC/SK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MT AND ND WITH A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK FORECAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE INTO NWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO WRN NEB AND ERN CO/WRN KS. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A PLUME OF QUITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/ ATOP BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN ND/NRN MN SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. SOME DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO WRN KS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH TIME...EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER ERN ND INTO NRN MN WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FORECAST. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AS FAR SW AS CNTRL/SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 4 16:09:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 11:09:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509041726.j84HQPfm011474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041724 SWODY2 SPC AC 041723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 20 SSE DLH 30 NW MKT 10 ESE EAR 40 ENE GLD 15 NNW GLD 45 SSW IML 35 ENE SNY PHP 45 E DIK 70 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 20 ESE PRC 40 SE CNY 35 SSW RWL 45 WSW CPR 35 S WRL 35 NW JAC 27U 40 W MSO 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 80 NE CMX 25 SW LSE 40 W HUT 55 NNW CDS 35 N BGS 20 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN TLH 20 W AYS 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 50 NE LFK 25 WSW LIT 55 NE LIT 40 S JBR 20 SW UOX 10 SSW LUL 20 WSW MOB 20 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL US WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM ND INTO CNTRL WY ON MONDAY. A PLAINS SFC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A SFC LOW IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN ND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...A LINEAR MCS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. IF A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MULTICELLS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL OR SQUALL-LINE CAN FORM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL US MONDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH NEB INTO WRN KS. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND ERN WY WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE PLAINS...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY AID THE FORMATION OF HAIL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER ACROSS NEB AND WRN KS THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 04:13:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2005 23:13:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509050530.j855UiWs002488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050528 SWODY2 SPC AC 050527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW ANJ 30 ESE FOD 35 SSW HLC 15 ESE GCK 25 WNW LBL 45 WNW EHA 35 W AKO 15 NNW SNY 40 NNW RWF 80 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 25 N NIR 30 W BPT 25 S BTR 10 SSE MOB 15 NNE PFN 20 W VLD 40 NNW SAV 20 N CRE 30 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 WSW TUS 55 W GUP 10 ESE FMN 50 NE DRO 35 SSW 4FC 20 W LAR 15 WNW DGW 45 ENE 81V 65 N PHP 25 SW ABR 45 SSE FAR 10 N INL ...CONT... 80 NNE APN 20 E DBQ 45 NE FNB 45 NNW P28 15 WSW PVW 35 SE CNM 65 WNW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH TRAILING BELT OF MODEST TO STRONG WLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO NRN PLAINS. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM IS FORECAST FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WITH SWWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO. THIS PORTION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM WI INTO NEB AND PERHAPS KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ. THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-3000 J/KG FROM NRN/CNTRL WI INTO WRN KS. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF CNTRL CANADIAN TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE UP OF MI SWWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE CONSIDERABLY MORE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR A FEW SUPERCELLS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SUSTAIN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/KS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 5 16:15:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 11:15:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509051733.j85HX4bt006114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051730 SWODY2 SPC AC 051729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 WNW DSM 30 NNE HLC 40 NNE GCK 30 SE LAA 15 WSW LHX 25 NNE COS 20 ESE 4FC 55 ENE CAG 40 ENE RWL DGW 20 SSE CDR 15 ESE VTN 15 WSW BKX 25 NNE STC 45 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 30 N NIR 30 NNE HOU 25 SW BTR 35 ENE MOB 15 SSE MAI 20 N VLD 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 30 E ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 NE APN HTL 35 S MKE 25 ENE BRL 35 ENE MKC 25 E ICT 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 95 WSW TUS 30 SE PHX 20 SE INW 15 SW FMN 40 SSE MTJ 55 SW CAG 50 SW RWL 45 WSW CPR 55 S GCC 25 W PHP 35 S ABR 35 WNW BRD 60 N ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA AND EXTENDING INTO NWRN MT WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PORTIONS BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGION OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WWD UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FROM PARTS OF ERN CO...SERN WY INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. THOUGH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...STRONG VEERING PROFILES BETWEEN 0-3 KM AGL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN WY INTO WRN NEB ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. BY EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STRONGEST FORCING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. DURING THE DAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE U.S. BORDER. INITIAL STORMS SHOULD THEREFORE DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISSIPATES...THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POST FRONTAL...AND THESE MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STILL...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 04:41:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2005 23:41:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509060558.j865wYmM004350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060556 SWODY2 SPC AC 060556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DGW 40 SSW MLS 15 NE MLS 25 S ISN 55 NNE BIS 30 E MCK 55 SW HLC 50 NNE LAA 20 ESE LIC 25 ESE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S GBN 20 W INW 15 NNW GUP 30 ESE DRO 35 E ASE 45 NW LAR 45 NNW SHR 50 NNE HVR ...CONT... 80 NE DVL 30 SW GFK 60 NNE ATY 35 SSE RWF 30 NW VOK 30 E APN ...CONT... 40 NNE CLE 10 SSW BMI 35 N SZL EMP 40 NE AMA 50 S CVS 45 S ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD 10 NNW ALI 45 NNE PSX 30 W BPT 15 SSW 7R4 ...CONT... 35 SSE TLH 30 NNE CTY 15 NW SSI 45 ENE SAV 20 S CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST ACROSS CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL TIER OF STATES. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LEE TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA AS RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR TIME OF PEAK HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND WRN EXTENSION OF WARM FRONT...LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE/ WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA N OF WARM FRONT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY... MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ ALONG/S OF PORTIONS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SWD DISPLACEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM STRONGER MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 6 16:11:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 11:11:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509061728.j86HScsO021672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061725 SWODY2 SPC AC 061724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S 81V 40 S MLS 40 WNW GDV 30 NE ISN 45 SW JMS 10 NNE HON 65 SSE 9V9 20 ENE GLD 50 W GLD 35 WSW AKO 55 S 81V. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 30 SW GFK 60 NNE ATY 25 WNW MKT 30 NW VOK 30 E APN ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 25 NW MFD 20 ESE CMI 30 N COU 10 SSE ICT 40 NE AMA 50 S CVS 45 S ELP ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 W INW 15 NNW GUP 30 ESE DRO 35 E ASE 45 NW LAR 10 NNW BIL 50 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CTY 35 ESE VLD 35 SW SAV 35 NE SAV 20 S CRE ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW NIR 35 NNE VCT 15 NW HOU 10 N BPT 15 SE LCH 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL MOVE EWD INTO SERN CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY THEN RETREAT NWD WEDNESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EWD AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NW AS WRN SD WITH 50S INTO SERN MT AND SWRN ND. THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH 7.5-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO 35 OR 40 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HEATING AND MIXING MAY WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS BY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE STRONGEST. ...GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MIGHT EXIST WITH ANY MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 04:40:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 23:40:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509070557.j875vuAN025990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070555 SWODY2 SPC AC 070554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BKX 45 SW AXN STC 35 NE MSP 25 NNE VOK 25 SW OSH 15 NNE MKE 40 SE MKE 45 ESE MMO 30 W PIA 30 W BRL 40 W LWD 10 S OMA 20 NW SUX BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 40 WNW PRC 55 SSE PGA 30 SW 4BL 20 NW MTJ EGE 15 NW DEN 40 SSE LIC 15 NW CAO 45 NW TCC 35 NE 4CR 10 NW TCS 30 ESE SAD DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW 4BK 35 ESE OTH 70 SE EUG 35 ENE LMT 45 NNW SVE 45 SW SVE 35 ESE UKI 40 SSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT 45 N BRD 65 SSE DLH 20 N GRB 50 NNE GRR 15 SSE MBS 50 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 N EPM 20 W PWM 10 SSE PSF 25 SSE IPT 35 SSW HLG 35 WNW LUK 15 NW ALN 25 WNW SZL 15 NW MHK 10 SSW HSI 35 ESE ANW 30 NW MBG 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 15 NW NIR 35 NNE PSX GLS ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 30 NW GNV 20 NNW JAX 25 SSE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER WRN PARTS OF THE U.S. AND CANADA...WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRONGER...NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FATHER TO THE E...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST CNTRL CONUS RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND THEN TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES WHILE SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN IA/SRN MN. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS...POSSIBLY SWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SWLY LLJ. WHILE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MN/IA INTO SRN WI AND IL IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP S OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A FEED OF THIS STRONG INSTABILITY INTO WRN OR SWRN FLANK OF ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 7 16:05:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 11:05:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509071723.j87HN5Fn024679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071716 SWODY2 SPC AC 071715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BKX 50 SW AXN 35 SE AXN 30 E MSP 15 E LSE 15 NNE MSN 25 N MMO 15 W BMI 10 SE UIN 15 S P35 45 E OMA 35 E YKN 10 WSW BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W LRD 15 NW NIR 25 NNW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JFK 45 NE MKL 20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 25 NNW CAO 40 ENE 4CR 30 WSW TCS 35 NE TUS 60 WSW FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE YUM 45 WNW PRC 55 SSE PGA 25 NE U28 50 SE RKS 50 W CPR 40 SSE 81V 25 E SHR 40 NW COD 10 N SUN 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW 4BK 10 NNW RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 30 N IWD 25 NNW GRR 40 NE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WRN U.S./WRN CANADA TROUGH. AS A RESULT...TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE ERN U.S. WILL ALSO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE OH VALLEY NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WHILE CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS ONLY ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT INVOF THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION. ...SRN MN/IA/NRN MO/SWRN WI/NWRN IL... AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AND THOUGH BELT OF STRONGER/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND RIDGE WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT...CAPPING/INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. FURTHER E...WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SEWD INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. WEAK SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE MID MO VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUATION OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NE OF FRONT...WHICH MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS. WITH 30 TO PERHAPS 40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY YIELD THREAT FOR HAIL. SHOULD STORM COVERAGE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD NEAR SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE SURFACE-BASED...ORGANIZATION INTO A SEWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER/MCS ALONG BOUNDARY WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS ENHANCING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 04:35:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 23:35:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509080552.j885qMpO015315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080549 SWODY2 SPC AC 080548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ 30 E MLI 15 N LAF 20 NNE DAY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 55 NNW CSV 35 SW PAH 30 SSE TBN 20 WSW COU 15 E LWD 40 NNW DSM 25 WNW ALO 20 WNW DBQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 55 WSW GCN 10 NW BCE U24 60 N ENV 20 WNW PIH 35 WNW IDA 15 WSW 27U 45 SW 3DU 20 N HLN 30 NNE GTF 45 NNW HVR ...CONT... 40 NNW CMX 25 SSE DLH HON 30 WSW LBF 10 SE TAD 30 NE ONM 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY 30 NNW GNV 15 WSW SSI 30 NE SSI ...CONT... 35 SSW LRD 15 SSW NIR 25 SSW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EVOLUTION OF BROAD...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN STREAM LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN ND WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH AB/SK AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST FROM THIS LOW SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN... DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS OWING TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF EJECTING GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE GREATEST LIKLIHOOD FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO INTO WRN SD WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD LOCALLY ERODE CAP. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL REDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIALLY LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG NRN/NERN EDGE OF THE CAP WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLJ. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL ATTM FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 8 16:05:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Sep 2005 11:05:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509081722.j88HMjCn017842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081720 SWODY2 SPC AC 081719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ 30 E MLI 15 N LAF 20 NNE DAY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 55 NNW CSV 30 ENE DYR 40 NNW POF 35 WSW COU 15 E LWD 40 NNW DSM 25 WNW ALO 20 WNW DBQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S YUM 25 ESE LAS 55 NNW P38 40 SSW EKO 25 SW WMC 90 N WMC 20 NNE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK ...CONT... 40 NNW CMX 25 SSE DLH HON 30 WSW LBF 10 SE TAD 30 NE ONM 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LRD 15 SSW NIR 25 SSW PSX ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 30 NNW GNV 15 WSW SSI 30 NE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW... A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ON FRI ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WLYS DEVELOP SWD ATOP RESIDUAL MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE. THE UPPER LOW NW OF KSFO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW FRI AFTN/NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE. BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP A POOL OF MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE DESERTS...LIKELY MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM UT SWD INTO AZ. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND NRN/CNTRL AZ IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MAIN WARM CONVEYER BELT WHERE INSOLATION SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST FRI AFTN. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD CO/NWRN NM BY FRI NIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EVOLUTION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON FRI...WITH A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VLY. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MIGRATES SEWD INTO THE GRTLKS REGION. THIS MAY SUPPORT EARLY DAY TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN MN THAT MAY YIELD HAIL. FARTHER W...THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DIGGING SWD SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AS OPPOSED TO EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE LONGER OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOW THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S BENEATH THESE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. BUT...THE CAP WILL PROBABLY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED TSTMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH FROM NERN CO INTO WRN SD. COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERASE THE CAP AND ALLOW SURFACE BASED PARCELS TO REACH LFC/S. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT...THOUGH DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER INSTABILITY AND...THEREFORE...A REDUCED THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG NRN/NERN EDGE OF THE CAP WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLJ. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL ATTM FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..RACY.. 09/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 06:16:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 01:16:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509090734.j897YG6l011446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090607 SWODY2 SPC AC 090606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WSW TUS 20 E GBN 50 SE PRC 65 NNE INW 60 SW CEZ 10 ESE 4BL 35 NNE CNY 30 NE VEL 10 NW EVW 50 N DPG 45 SSW EKO 20 SSW OWY TWF 25 WNW SUN 45 N BOI 50 SE DLS 15 NNW MFR 45 N 4BK ...CONT... 140 NE CMX 55 WSW IWD 35 NNE RWF 40 ESE MHN 10 NNE AKO COS 20 NW RTN 20 NE ROW 25 W INK 20 WSW FST 40 NNE P07 55 W JCT 50 SSE BWD 10 N TPL 45 E CLL 20 S BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES AND A LARGE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM TX AND THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE WRN TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NEWD INTO ONTARIO AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF DEEP SLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING WRN TROUGH EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO CANADA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP OVER PARTS OF ERN DAKOTAS/NRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..CARBIN.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 9 15:37:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Sep 2005 10:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509091655.j89GteHp028623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091653 SWODY2 SPC AC 091652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 NE GBN 40 SSE PRC 15 NNE FLG 50 SSE PGA 25 SSE U17 15 NE 4HV 50 N PUC 25 W SLC 45 WSW ENV 25 ENE U31 35 E NFL 20 WNW WMC 35 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 55 N BOI 30 SSE BKE 65 S RDM MFR CEC ...CONT... 90 E OSC 40 WSW ANJ 50 NNE MQT 60 ENE DLH 25 N BRD 35 W AXN 10 N MHE 40 E MHN 10 NNE AKO COS 20 NW RTN 20 NE ROW 25 W INK 20 WSW FST 40 NNE P07 55 W JCT 50 SSE BWD 10 N TPL 45 E CLL 20 S BPT ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 20 ESE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER GRTLKS REGION... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD AS STRONGEST PORTION OF THE JET REMAINS OVER THE EPAC THROUGH EARLY SAT. AS A RESULT...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER CNTRL CA... WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NEWD TODAY/TONIGHT...THEN DAMPEN AS IT GLANCES OFF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MANITOBA-SASK SAT AFTN. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY MIGRATE INTO PARTS OF THE ERN DAKS AND CNTRL NEB SAT AFTN BEFORE RETREATING WWD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH GRTLKS REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS BENEATH A STOUT EML THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE/LEE-TROUGH. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRENGTH OF INHIBITION OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL LESSEN THE PROBABILITIES FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS NON-ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND FAR NWRN MN LATE SAT AFTN. GIVEN A PERSISTENT UPDRAFT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP THAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NWRN ONT/UPPER GRTLKS REGION SAT-SAT NIGHT. THOUGH A HIGHER ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...A FEW STORMS MAY GRAZE U.S. PORTIONS OF THE LAKES SUPERIOR/HURON AND ERN UPPER MI. ..RACY.. 09/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 05:24:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 00:24:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509100642.j8A6gYQj028880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100640 SWODY2 SPC AC 100639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 SSW DLH 30 NNW OTG 10 WNW HON 25 WSW ABR 45 SE JMS 15 ESE GFK 10 NW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 65 NE PHX 30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP 25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 20 NE Y22 20 SSE BIS 50 WNW JMS 20 NW DVL 80 NNE DVL ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 10 NNE RST 50 E SUX 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS ...CONT... CTY 20 NW AYS 55 N SAV 15 NE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 ESE BPI 30 ESE OGD 35 WNW DPG 35 ENE U31 LOL 45 WNW SVE 10 NE MHS 70 SSE RDM 40 W BOI 40 SW 27U 30 SW BIL 35 ENE WRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN CA INTO SCNTRL CANADA AND A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND EXTEND SW-NE FROM CO/WY TO NRN MN. SMALL SCALE AND GENERALLY WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WRN TROUGH AND RESULT IN ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT/SRN CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND PROMOTE NIGHTTIME MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST TPC TRACK FORECASTS SUGGEST LANDFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT TC TORNADO THREAT...MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD. ...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN TO NRN MN... WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BUT PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. APPROACH OF MT/SRN CANADA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH INCREASE IN MASS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD ERADICATE MOST WARM SECTOR INHIBITION BY EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 21Z SREF THAT STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12/03Z SUNDAY EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO AN MCS ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 10 16:05:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2005 11:05:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509101723.j8AHNsOf023728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101721 SWODY2 SPC AC 101721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 25 NNE BRD 40 W MSP 30 S RWF 30 SSW ATY 30 N ABR 30 W JMS 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FHU 55 ESE SOW 30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP 25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 25 NNE Y22 15 SW BIS 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS ...CONT... 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 SSE LND 25 SSE EVW 35 N MLF 10 SSW P38 70 W DRA 45 SE BIH 45 SW BIH 60 S TVL 45 W RNO 15 N SVE 20 SE LMT 75 SE EUG 35 WNW RDM 45 E DLS 50 SSW S06 15 WNW 3DU 25 NNW LVM 35 SSW BIL 35 ENE WRL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS AND NRN/WRN MN... ...ERN DAKS INTO NRN/WRN MN... LARGE PAC NW UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT FILLS...NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR STREAM...THEN BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD INTO CNTRL MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...A FRONT...SITUATED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKS EARLY SUNDAY...WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS...PRIMARILY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS AND NRN/WRN MN. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. BUT... THE STRONG PERSISTENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED INITIATION DURING THE AFTN. WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING CANADIAN TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW/ MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION BY EVENING. AS A RESULT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET VCNTY THE FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKS/NWRN MN. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN. TSTMS CLUSTERS SHOULD BACKBUILD INTO THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES TOWARD SWRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER N...TSTMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF THE MCS AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/LLJ. ..RACY.. 09/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 05:10:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 00:10:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509110628.j8B6S6OF026342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110625 SWODY2 SPC AC 110624 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 50 NNE OMA 20 WNW LNK 20 SSE HSI 40 SW HSI 25 NNE IML 30 NNW SNY 55 W BFF 30 ESE DGW 55 S 81V 40 WNW RAP 15 WSW PHP 10 WSW PIR 55 NNE ATY 45 NW BRD 45 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW P07 35 NNW 4CR LVS 30 NNW TAD 10 NW PUB 20 ESE CAG 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15 NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20 SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND TRANSITION ENEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...SEVERAL PACKETS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE WITHIN A BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FIRST...A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS MN/SD AND INTERSECT THE LEE TROUGH OVER NEB. AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH WILL INDUCE WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO MN DURING MONDAY. AN INITIAL MID/UPPER PERTURBATION WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MN DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM UT/WY TO THE WRN DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...SD/NEB TO THE UPPER MS VLY... AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NCNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEB NEWD INTO MN. CAPPING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE QUICKLY OVERCOME AS INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ATOP THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS SPREADING ENEWD OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ON AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND NEAR WAVE CYCLONE...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE COINCIDENT WITH ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...OR WITH STORMS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. A SECONDARY AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. RESULTING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 11 16:21:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 11:21:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509111738.j8BHctS1013663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111727 SWODY2 SPC AC 111726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 60 NE OMA 10 WNW BIE 15 SSW HSI 20 SSE BBW 35 NE AIA 50 NE DGW 25 SE 81V 55 ESE REJ 35 NW ABR 30 SE FAR 35 SSE BJI 45 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW GDP 65 W CVS 25 NW EHA 10 W MCK 35 NW IML 45 NW 4FC 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC 15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15 NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20 SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING WRN STATES UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE TONIGHT-MON. AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. NUMEROUS JETLETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SRN CANADA TONIGHT AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR A MCS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. AT LEAST TWO MORE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS LATER MON-MON NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD IN WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE AUGMENTED BY THE MN MCS FROM SRN MN WWD TO ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...THEN MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MN BY MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH SWD INTO W TX. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... BROAD WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ON MON. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE RECENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEAKER AS THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE DAY. BUT...AS THE CAP BECOMES BREACHED...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN MID-LATE AFTN. THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH STRONGER BULK SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE FRONT. THUS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. TO THE N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION FROM ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. MEANWHILE...A SECOND AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE STRONGEST OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY THE BLACK HILLS...AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... 09Z ENSEMBLES AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE QUITE STRONG VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX MON AFTN. SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRAZE THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLD TSTMS. AROUND 35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WOULD MAINLY BE OF MULTICELL VARIETY...BUT STILL PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 04:52:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2005 23:52:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509120610.j8C6Ae3V016754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120603 SWODY2 SPC AC 120602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AUW 15 E ESC 10 SSE PLN 20 N HTL 40 NE GRR 30 ESE CGX 10 N BMI 25 NNE SPI 35 SW STL 40 SW TBN 40 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 30 N CDS 10 NNE AMA 25 ENE CAO 45 S LAA 30 ESE LAA 35 NNW GCK 50 NE DDC 15 NW HUT 20 SE MHK 40 W LWD 45 ESE FOD 25 S RST 25 NNW RST 10 WSW EAU 30 NNW AUW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PBI 20 ENE GNV 40 N SAV 10 NNW GSB 20 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL 15 NNE LUK 30 SW SDF 15 SSW PAH 20 SSW POF 25 WSW LIT 15 N PRX 40 WNW MWL 40 W ABI 60 SW SJT 15 S FST 10 WNW INK 50 W CVS 20 NE LVS 35 N ALS 15 SW ASE 25 NE CAG 20 E LAR 20 W SNY 25 WNW MCK 45 SW EAR 15 SE EAR 25 NNE GRI 40 W YKN 25 SE 9V9 50 NNW VTN 20 NE CDR 60 ENE DGW 20 N CPR 35 NE RIW 25 WNW WRL 35 NE COD 35 ENE BIL 20 NE MLS 30 SSE GDV 35 NW DIK 25 ENE MOT 65 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF 40-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE WITHIN THIS BAND OF STRONG FLOW....FROM SWRN KS TO NRN WI. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE PRECEEDED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WIND SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS. AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM NRN MO/IA TO LOWER MI/IND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE FRONT...FROM KS/OK ACROSS SRN MO/NWRN AR...WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT WLY FLOW ALOFT. LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST FOR OPHELIA HAS THE HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL OVER ERN NC LATE IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE CIRCULATION COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF SERN NC WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... DIURNAL HEATING OF ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LATEST NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FROM OK TO WI AND POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY QUITE LIKELY IN AREAS RECEIVING GREATER INSOLATION. A FEW TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE EDGES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY INITIATING NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE THE DAY BEFORE. SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECT CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR INVOF OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTIONS COULD LEAD TO AREAS WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE DEFINED BY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR REPEAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AFTER DARK AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THIS AREA FROM NM/CO. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR A SEVERE MCS OR TWO FROM CO/KS SEWD INTO OK. ..CARBIN.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 12 16:19:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 11:19:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509121737.j8CHbLbc024750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121735 SWODY2 SPC AC 121734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ESC PLN HTL GRR SGF OKC CSM AMA CAO 55 N CAO 35 SSE LAA DDC SLN 10 W ESC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 50 NNW CHS FAY 30 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE MTC TOL IND CGI PGO ADM SPS 70 S CDS 60 SW SJT 30 SSE FST MRF CVS 40 SW CAO 40 WSW RTN PUC 65 SW MLD PIH IDA 40 E WEY MLS DIK BIS 45 SE BIS 25 SSE MBG PHP CDR BFF AKO 40 SSW GLD 40 S HLC RSL CNK INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO LM AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS SRN CA. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL INCLUDE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN UT/SERN ID -- FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MN EARLY IN PERIOD...AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ALBERTA AND PACIFIC NW. ALBERTA TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER STATES. MEANWHILE NWRN TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO SOME GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL THERE VIA COOLING ALOFT...STEEPENED DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE. BROAD BELT OF SELYS ALOFT WILL OVERLIE SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. BY MID-AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT DECELERATING FRONT OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES AND EXTEND SSWWD TOWARD SERN NM. ...GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL/SRN LOW PLAINS... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EVENING INVOF SFC FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WEAKLY ANAFRONTAL REGIME AS BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIFTS SEWD BENEATH SWLY MEAN FLOW IN MID-UPPER LEVELS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE EACH WILL BE LIMITED BY ORIENTATION OF SFC FRONT NEARLY PARALLEL TO WINDS ALOFT...AND BY LACK OF PRONOUNCED SFC CYCLONE TO ISALLOBARICALLY FORCE BACKING OF WARM-SECTOR INFLOW. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S/LOW 70S F IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF FRONT...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 100-1500 J/KG IN GREAT LAKES AREA...INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG INVOF KS/OK BORDER. STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND LARGEST HAIL THREAT MAY BE INVOF SRN END OF FRONT...WHILE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT LARGER FARTHER NE. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT RANGE AND RATON MESA AREAS DURING AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ONTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BEHIND FRONT -- FROM CENTRAL/SRN CO SEWD TOWARD SWRN KS -- ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS LIKELY IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SHOULD BE POSTFRONTAL DRY ADVECTION AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF SFC MOISTURE. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF WINDOW OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THIS AREA ATM. ...ERN NC... MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH TS OPHELIA -- N THROUGH NE OF CENTER -- MAY BRUSH ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NC BASED ON LATEST NHC FCST TRACK. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS SHOULD BE SMALL COVERAGE OF FAVORED SECTOR ON LAND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY AMIDST NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. MESOBETA SCALE FACTORS WILL MOST STRONGLY INFLUENCE STRENGTH OF MIDDLE-OUTER BAND CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO OR GUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF ENHANCED/DIFFERENTIAL SFC DIABATIC HEATING CAN DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS BETWEEN BANDS. SUCH SMALL SCALE DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM TO WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 05:15:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 00:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509130632.j8D6WoK5017258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130630 SWODY2 SPC AC 130629 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPS 60 WSW SPS 50 SSW CDS 25 E PVW 30 SE AMA 20 ENE AMA 55 NNE AMA 50 SSE LBL 35 WNW GAG 40 NE GAG END 40 S PNC 10 NW TUL 35 NW FYV 30 NNW HRO 40 WNW POF 25 W CGI 20 W PAH 45 SSE PAH 35 ENE MKL 30 SSW MKL MEM 10 NNW PBF 40 SSW HOT 30 ENE PRX 25 SSE DUA 45 S ADM 35 SSE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 40 N SAV 45 NNE RDU 20 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 15 W ALB 30 NE SSU 40 SE TYS 45 ENE RMG 25 SSE UOX 45 W GLH 30 NW SHV 35 SSE DAL 40 SSW ABI 35 SSW FST 40 WNW FST 35 SSE CNM 40 SW CVS 35 NW TCC 40 WNW TAD 30 W DEN 25 WNW FCL 30 WSW BFF 30 NNW AIA 20 N VTN 45 SSE 9V9 65 E ANW 35 E LBF 30 WNW HLC 15 E RSL 35 W P35 10 SSE UIN 15 WSW CMI 15 NE SBN 20 NE PLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY TODAY AS A PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...THE FUTURE TRACK OF OPHELIA REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LATEST NAM KEEPING THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ERN CAROLINAS...AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS ERN NC SIMILAR BUT FASTER THAN LATEST TPC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EVOLVING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS AT THE START THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA AS SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS EWD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND ESEWD ACROSS MIDWEST. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY WSWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS BENEATH 30-50KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITHIN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW. AT LEAST ONE FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE GREAT PLAINS DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE STRONG SLOPED ASCENT ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... FORECAST SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUMBER OF SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES AS A VARIETY OF FORCING MECHANISMS AFFECT MESOSCALE DYNAMICS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE FIRST POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGS SWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OK AND AR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW RESULTING IN ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM ERN OK/AR TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/WRN TN. STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/WRN OK AND NWRN TX INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FRONTAL/OUTFLOW INTRUSION INTO THIS AREA...COUPLED WITH STRONG UPSTREAM HEATING AND ADVANCING DRYLINE...SHOULD ACT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM NM/CO. THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE INCREASING MASS TRANSPORT INTO/ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THIS PROCESS COULD MAINTAIN ONGOING SEVERE STORMS...OR RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TX PNHDL EWD INTO OK. FORECAST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION MAY INCREASE AND RESULT IN A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIOS BECOME MORE CERTAIN AND BETTER DEFINED. ...OH VALLEY TO WRN NY... MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THESE AREAS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. AT PRESENT...NAM/GFS MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN FORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WRN PA/NY LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING AND FLOW. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE FRONT...WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD KEEP OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED HAIL/WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE. ...ERN NC... ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY LANDFALL OF OPHELIA ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL PART OF THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 13 16:28:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2005 11:28:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509131746.j8DHk2A8029858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131743 SWODY2 SPC AC 131742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PRX 40 SSW SPS ABI BGS 40 WSW CDS AMA DHT EHA LBL END UNO ARG 45 SSW JBR PBF 40 NE TXK PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF MRF INK 35 ENE CVS 40 S RTN 45 SW PUB MTJ CNY PUC VEL CDR 35 N VTN 50 ENE ANW BUB BBW MCK HLC RSL SLN OJC DEC CMI AZO OSC ...CONT... HUL CXY HSS RMG TCL JAN GGG TYR SEP BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRE GSB 25 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC NW ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUE. SEVERAL MAINLY WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CONUS. WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NV/WRN UT. RESULT SHOULD BE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM WRN NEB TO NRN AZ BY 15/00Z...MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. 13/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS...SPECTRAL/NGM/ETA AND 09Z SREF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS PROCESS BUT NOT AMPLITUDE OF RESULTANT TROUGH. SFC FRONTAL ZONE IS NOW ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS WRN IA AND TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN PRESSURE RISES AND NLY FLOW COMPONENT OBSERVED ACROSS NERN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES BEHIND FRONT ATTM...EXPECT IT TO MOVE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FRONTAL WAVE CYCLOGENESIS -- AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH -- INVOF CDS-ABI AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THAT AREA EWD ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AREA AND ARKLATEX...THEN NEWD ACROSS OH...BY 15/00Z. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH OZARKS... ONGOING MCS MAY BE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY IN PERIOD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WRN OZARKS AND CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER REGION. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY ACT AS ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF SYNOPTIC SFC FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS BODY OF OK AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES GIVEN PROGGED LOW LEVEL AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS N OF FRONT. LOWEST LCLS...LARGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...STRONGEST DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEARS AND MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT ACROSS OK AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 55-65 KT...STRONG VEERING WITH 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING UP TO 3000 J/KG MLCAPES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG DRYLINE...ATOP DEEPLY MIXED AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AFTER DARK THAT COULD AFFECT ERN OK AND AR WITH HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. ...TN/OH VALLEYS TO ERN GREAT LAKES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS ARE EXPECTED INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM...MAINLY IN FORM OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE GUSTS. BECAUSE OF STRONGLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF MEAN FLOW VECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE...SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ALTHOUGH STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW IS FCST...WEAKNESS OF BOTH WINDS AND LAPSE RATS IN MIDLEVELS...RELATIVE TO FARTHER SW...SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN NC... LATEST NHC TRACK PROGS FOR OPHELIA WILL PLACE COASTAL PLAIN...SOUND SIDE SHORES AND OUTER BANKS IN FAVORED SECTOR FOR ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- N THROUGH ENE OF CENTER. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY...POSSIBILITY OF UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE CHARACTERIZED BY LACK OF DISCRETE STORMS...AND SMALL COVERAGE OF MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OVER LAND. A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR OPHELIA. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 05:02:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 00:02:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509140619.j8E6Jf7N020611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140617 SWODY2 SPC AC 140617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CKV 35 SSE BNA HSV 35 ENE CBM 35 S CBM 30 ENE JAN 40 NE HEZ 30 NNE POE 20 ESE LFK CLL 25 NW AUS 45 E SJT 15 N ABI 20 S SPS 10 S MLC 45 ENE FSM 25 WNW DYR 45 NNE MKL 35 S CKV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE AYS 20 SSW FLO 25 NE FAY 35 NNW RWI 15 SE DAN 40 ENE HKY 25 NW MCN TOI 35 WNW CEW 45 NNE MSY 45 W HUM ...CONT... GLS 45 NNW VCT 50 E DRT 35 ENE P07 35 SSW MAF 45 SSW LBB 25 WSW GAG 25 E P28 25 NW CNU 25 SE SZL 25 SE MTO 40 E TOL 30 W BFD 20 NW ITH 45 SW SLK 20 N PBG ...CONT... 80 NW CMX 25 ENE MSP 25 SE 9V9 40 SE MBG 35 W DIK 70 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WERE CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS. AS STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WHERE STRONG ASCENT WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS BEING TRANSPORTED NWD BY CIRCULATION AROUND OPHELIA. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE GRADUALLY SWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE TO AFFECT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WAS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LOOPS OVER SRN CA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY DURING THURSDAY AND RESULT IN WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM OK TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. IN THE NRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FROM MT TO MN AND RESULT IN AN AXIS OF STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF FORCING AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION LEND CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE TSTM THREAT OVER THESE AREAS. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY... A MATURE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MCV DYNAMICS...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM SERN OK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EWD/SEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY AS WAVE CYCLONE FURTHER INTENSIFIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MOVES EAST ACROSS AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW MAY EXTEND WSWWD BENEATH A CAPPED BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NERN TO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THIS TRAILING BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30KT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE COULD RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...NERN SD TO NERN MN... NAM/NAMKF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...GFS IS FORECASTING A MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE BORDER AREAS FROM MT TO MN. WHILE ONE OR TWO MARGINAL HAIL REPORTS OR A STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW THE 5 PERCENT THRESHOLD PROBABILITY OF SEVERE. ..CARBIN.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 14 16:07:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2005 11:07:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509141725.j8EHPLCK025525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141720 SWODY2 SPC AC 141719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLL AUS JCT 35 S MAF HOB CVS CDS 30 SW SPS 45 SW PRX TYR 40 W LFK CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE OAJ 30 NW EWN 50 NE RWI 60 SW RIC DAN HKY ANB 0A8 35 ESE POE 60 SSW CLL 50 SSW JCT 70 ENE P07 35 SSW MAF 30 WSW HOB 55 NE 4CR LVS RTN CAO 20 NW GAG CNU HUF CAK FKL BFD SYR MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 65 SSE DLH MKT OTG FSD MHE HON ABR JMS 65 NNE BIS P24 GDV LWT GTF 105 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH PERIOD WITH LARGEST HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL CO SWWD OVER 4-CORNERS REGION -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER/MID MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. MORE AMPLIFIED SPECTRAL/ETA DEPICTIONS OF THIS PERTURBATION ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAJORITY OF 09Z SREF MEMBERS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND ARE PREFERRED. AT SFC...OUTFLOW-MODULATED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM LOWER MI ACROSS SWRN MO TO SWRN OK AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD OVER SRN PLAINS MAINLY INFLUENCED BY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS PRODUCED BY CONVECTION LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD. WEAK FONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG FRONT FROM AR UP OH VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD N OF SFC FRONT...MAIN THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MUCAPE. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE FROM MIDAFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING CLOSE TO FRONT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AMIDST SHORTWAVE RIDGING...DURING AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WARMING ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESTRICT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED VEERING OF MIDLEVEL FLOW TO WLY/WNWLY WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS BEAR STRONG ELY COMPONENT. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS FROM RED RIVER REGION WWD PAST CAPROCK AREA AND SWWD ACROSS NRN PERMIAN BASIN INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 60-70 KT AND 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR 50-60 KT...THOUGH WEAK WINDS IN 850-700 MB LAYER IMPOSE SOME CONSTRAINTS ON HODOGRAPH SIZE AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOW. SMALL CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME EVIDENT WITHIN THIS BROAD SLGT RISK AREA...BUT ACTUAL FOCI FOR CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOBETA SCALE OUTFLOW PROCESSES YET TO OCCUR. THEREFORE BROAD/15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN ATTM. ...TN/OH VALLEY REGION TO NERN CONUS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL OVERALL BECAUSE OF WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...SFC AND ALOFT...AND ALSO IS CONDITIONAL ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THEREFORE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT BELOW CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS ATTM. MESOSCALE AREA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY REPRESENT PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS BECAUSE OF ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF DEPTH OF LOW RESEMBLES SPECTRAL PROGS MORE THAN ETA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SMALL DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DESPITE SOME ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THEREFORE BUOYANCY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON PRESENCE OF LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON INSOLATION...ITSELF QUITE CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD/PRECIP DEBRIS FROM PRIOR AND/OR UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ...COASTAL ERN NC... BASED ON NHC PROGS...GREAT MAJORITY OF NERN QUADRANT OF OPHELIA WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH COVERAGE OVER LAND SHRINKING DURING DAY. GIVEN THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY...TORNADO RISK APPEARS TOO MINIMAL ATTM TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FORECASTS AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS ON OPHELIA. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 05:53:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 00:53:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509150553.j8F5rQWO000476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150551 SWODY2 SPC AC 150550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45 E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY 15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD 30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY 40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX... DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS... LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..CARBIN.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 15 17:01:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 12:01:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509151701.j8FH19Gh028966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151659 SWODY2 SPC AC 151657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1157 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ELP 35 SE ROW 45 E TCC 45 NNE EHA 20 NE IML 15 NE MHN 15 ESE MBG 35 W BIS 25 SSE SDY 15 NNE BIL 20 WNW MQM 20 SE BOI 80 NNW WMC 45 S 4LW 10 E MHS 35 SSE MFR 55 N LMT 60 SE RDM 40 WSW BKE 30 SW LWS 25 E PUW 35 NNE 3TH 25 S CTB 25 WSW HVR 40 WNW GGW 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 90 NW CMX 30 SSE BRD 30 NNW SUX 20 N MHK 30 SE ICT 25 ESE END 20 SSW OKC 30 SW ADM 35 SW PRX 30 NW ELD 40 WSW UOX 25 SSE CKV 30 NNE EVV 15 SSW IND 40 NE DAY 40 W CLE 25 WSW BUF 35 WNW SYR 20 W POU 20 SSE PVD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OH VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO WRN NY/PA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND BE LOCATED FROM PA TO THE NCNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATOP DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GENERALLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED TO THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO LATEST GFS WHICH INDICATES A MORE NWD TRACK AND SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE IMPULSE. THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE BEST GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS INVOF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE FROM OH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH FORCING NEAR FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WIND DAMAGE FROM STRONGER CELLS/LINES AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. PRESENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FORECAST SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN APPALACHIANS TO NRN GULF COAST/NERN TX... DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENTLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO TROUGH/LOW FARTHER NORTH. MIXING AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM NC SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ANY THREAT SHOULD DECLINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS... LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS MID LEVEL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO HIGH PLAINS. IN TURN...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE TX PNHDL TO THE DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR MAY BE NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION FROM ND TO MN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ACROSS THE REGION PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..AFWA.. 09/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 19 06:10:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 01:10:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509190610.j8J6AQ50023081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190607 SWODY2 SPC AC 190606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 50 SSW RIC 50 ESE LYH LYH 30 NW DCA 30 NNE ABE 25 SW PSF 20 SSE ORH 15 SSE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FMY 25 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SJC 60 NNE SAC 35 WSW WMC 55 SSE BYI 55 ENE EVW 45 E RWL 55 SSE DGW 30 S CDR 30 W VTN 50 SSE 9V9 30 SE YKN 25 WSW FNB 15 E SLN 20 NE DDC 40 NW GAG 25 ENE AMA 20 NW TCC ABQ 60 NNW SVC 10 S DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SAV 25 E DHN 30 SW LUL 20 SW ESF 45 NW LFK 40 SSW PRX 20 SE MLC 40 ESE HRO 35 NNE POF 55 WNW LUK 30 W MFD 40 NE CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS... ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WILL RESULT IN A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. 40-60 KT OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO VA WITH THE STRONGER FLOW LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. AT 12Z TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY. THE LOW WILL TRACK ENE TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED FROM ERN VA/MD NEWD INTO FAR ERN PA/NJ...WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE POTENTIAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PA/NJ AND SWD INTO ERN VA/MD AS THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH... BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...SRN FL... OFFICIAL NHC/TPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA WILL BE A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS WWD JUST SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND PARTS OF SRN FL. ...TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES AND PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THIS REGION...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WEAK UPPER FORCING/DEEP SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA INTO NV AND WRN UT/AZ... CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND WRN AZ. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 09/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 06:05:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 01:05:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509200605.j8K65GgU026716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200602 SWODY2 SPC AC 200602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SUX 30 SSE FSD 25 WNW OTG 25 SW MSP 10 SE EAU 15 SE VOK 35 WSW RFD 25 N BRL 25 WSW OTM 30 SE OMA 25 SW SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 10 NW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW IPL 35 N TRM 65 SE BIH 20 ESE RNO 40 SE 4LW 45 WSW BOI 55 WSW MQM 45 E WEY 60 ESE WRL 40 E DGW 15 NNW AIA 20 S VTN 40 SSE 9V9 35 SSE ABR 35 ENE STC 10 S IMT 35 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC 20 ESE GRR 25 NNW CMI 35 SSE UIN 30 WSW CNK 20 SE GLD 35 N LHX 55 S ALS 55 S GUP 50 ESE PHX 55 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 25 NE MGR 45 SSW SEM 15 SSE MCB 30 NE LCH 40 S SHV 20 SSE ELD 25 WNW UOX 40 WNW CSV 30 NNW GSO 15 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS SRN MN/IA INTO SWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SD/NRN NEB INTO SRN MN/IA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHEARS EWD...AND ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA TRANSLATES OVER THIS REGION WITHIN STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN STATES. IN THE WEST...TROUGH OVER CA WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD TO THE DAKOTAS SHOULD MOVE SSE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN NEB BY 22/00Z. MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE WAVE INITIALLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN WRN SD WILL REDEVELOP SEWD TO NERN NEB BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SRN MN/SWRN WI/IA SWWD TO NEB... SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION NNEWD TO THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AID IN WEAKENING THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA INTO SWRN WI. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...MAY BACKBUILD INTO ERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NRN NEB...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER THIS AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GREAT BASIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ALTHOUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2...A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET LOCATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..PETERS.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 20 17:44:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 12:44:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509201744.j8KHiiIn026216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201743 SWODY2 SPC AC 201742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MLI 30 SE OTM 25 NNE LWD 45 E OMA 25 SSE SUX 25 SSE FSD 20 E BKX 30 NNW RWF 15 E STC 60 N EAU 15 W RHI 40 S IMT 35 W MBL 40 E MKE 20 N CGX 40 E MLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE OSC 10 NNW AZO 35 ESE BRL 20 WSW STJ 25 NNE RSL 20 SE GLD 35 N LHX 55 S ALS 10 SSW GNT 70 ESE SOW 35 E DUG ...CONT... 25 ESE CZZ 45 ENE RAL 50 NW NID 10 SW NFL 55 NW WMC 45 SSW BOI 35 SW DLN 30 S LVM 30 SE SHR 35 NE DGW 35 WSW CDR 55 NE AIA 35 NNE VTN 15 W ATY 40 E AXN 45 SSW CMX 40 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 40 NNE MLU 25 NW MSL 20 WNW HSS 20 NNE HKY 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN U.S. WHILE A BROAD BELT OF STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA...IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS IMPULSE BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST ZONAL NRN STREAM... ONE OR TWO LEADING PERTURBATIONS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... PERSISTENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND STRONG CAP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS IA AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEWD BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE MO VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS NRN IA AND SERN MN. FRONTOGENESIS AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SRN MN/NRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. MASS INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONT IN THESE AREAS SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION BY EVENING AND RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ZONE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR WAVE CYCLONE/WARM FRONT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STORM INITIATION. PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS TRACKING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SRN MN/NERN IA...SEWD INTO PARTS OF WI AND NRN IL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE MN/IA SYSTEM. LIFT ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THESE AREAS AND PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFTER DARK. ...GREAT BASIN/NRN AZ TO CNTRL ROCKIES... ANOMALOUS PLUME OF HIGH PW AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE POCKETS OF MUCAPE APPROACHING 300 J/KG COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY LIMIT HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS AS THIS UNUSUALLY MOIST DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 06:01:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 01:01:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509210602.j8L61n20001134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210559 SWODY2 SPC AC 210558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DAY 30 ENE EVV 35 WNW POF 15 ESE JLN BVO 40 NNE PNC 35 E ICT 20 NE EMP FLV 25 E IRK 40 SE MMO 35 NW FWA 25 ENE FWA 30 ESE FWA 10 WNW DAY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 35 WNW GBN 45 NNE TRM 15 E NID 15 WNW TPH 20 N ELY 35 ESE DPG 25 E SLC 15 NW MLD 35 SW SUN 45 WSW 27U 30 S 3DU 10 WNW LVM 60 E JAC 30 N RWL 20 NW CYS 45 E FCL 15 E LHX 35 NW TCC 30 S 4CR 20 WSW DMN 45 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 40 SE CLL 55 ENE CLL 20 SW GGG 40 ESE PRX 10 W FSM 30 WNW TUL 25 W ICT 20 WSW MHK FNB 10 ENE MLI 40 NW CGX 20 NNE GRR 20 S OSC ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 35 WSW GFL 25 ENE AVP 15 WSW ILG 20 S WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS ENEWD INTO INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NERN U.S. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT SWD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SWD EXTENDING FROM SERN BC SWWD ACROSS NWRN CA BY 23/12Z. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES AS ABNORMALLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. ...ERN KS/WRN MO ENEWD THRU IL AND INDIANA... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD THRU NWRN MO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NERN STATES...AND SLOWLY SWD/SSEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OK INTO NWRN TX DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DUE TO STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX...BUT MODELS INDICATE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AIR MASS ALONG AND S AND E OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY. NAM LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING SLIGHTLY THE POOLING OF DEW POINTS OVER ERN KS/WRN MO AT THIS TIME...BUT IN GENERAL...MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. THUS...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS FRONTAL FORCING BREAKS THRU CAPPING INVERSION. STRONG INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM ALONG AND JUST S OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AS WELL AS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FROM MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 18:07:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 13:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509211807.j8LI7Qv0003309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211805 SWODY2 SPC AC 211804 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 15 NW MFD 40 NNE DAY 25 ENE IND 25 WSW IND 15 NNE ALN 35 E COU 15 S SZL 40 NE CNU 30 NNW CNU 40 W EMP 30 ESE SLN 20 N MHK FNB 25 W LWD 10 N OTM 45 SE DBQ 30 W MKE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ILM CAE 15 NE LGC 30 SE MEI 25 WSW MCB 25 NNW BTR 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 30 E TRM 20 SSE DAG 50 SSW DRA 45 N LAS 25 SE P38 20 NNW CDC 30 ENE MLF 45 W PUC 35 SE SLC 25 WNW OGD 50 S BYI 20 WSW TWF 55 SE BOI 35 NW SUN 35 SSE 27U 15 NNW BZN 50 ESE LWT 50 NW MLS 30 NW DIK 20 SW BIS 50 WSW MBG 50 NE RAP 40 ESE 81V 45 SW GCC 20 SSE WRL 45 NW RIW 30 E BPI 15 NNE RKS 20 WNW RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 NNE CYS 10 SE SNY 25 SSE LBF 20 NNE GRI 25 S SUX 15 ESE SPW 35 WSW RST 25 SE CWA 35 NNE GRB 40 W PLN ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PWM 20 SSW PSF 20 S MSV 25 ESE IPT 20 SE HGR 25 NNE SSU 30 ESE 5I3 20 SE LOZ 25 NE BNA 35 ENE DYR 25 ENE ARG 15 E UMN 30 SW BVO 20 SE END 25 W CDS 50 S CVS ROW 10 SSE ALM 30 E DMN 45 SW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NRN BORDER STATES WILL EXPAND SWD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WITH ORIGINS IN THE SRN STREAM...PHASE WITH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM LAKE MI WSWWD TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ONLY ADVANCE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... A STRONG MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY FROM LOWER MI INTO NRN IL AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCES ASCENT ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD TO IA. NARROW WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAINTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CAPPED INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF HAIL UNTIL WARM SECTOR CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SO THAT RESULTANT COLD POOLS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING AND SUPPORT CLUSTERS OR LINES OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER MI/IND BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS. FROM IL WWD TO ERN KS...CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THESE AREAS AND MAY ONLY BE OVERCOME AS LIFT DEEPENS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND IL AFTER DARK. A LINEAR MCS WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AREAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 21 18:31:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2005 13:31:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509211831.j8LIVRtp019580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211829 SWODY2 SPC AC 211828 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 15 NW MFD 40 NNE DAY 25 ENE IND 25 WSW IND 15 NNE ALN 35 E COU 15 S SZL 40 NE CNU 30 NNW CNU 40 W EMP 30 ESE SLN 20 N MHK FNB 25 W LWD 10 N OTM 45 SE DBQ 30 W MKE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LCH 25 NNW BTR 25 WSW MCB 30 SE MEI 15 NE LGC CAE 10 ENE ILM ...CONT... 10 SSE PWM 20 SSW PSF 20 S MSV 25 ESE IPT 20 SE HGR 25 NNE SSU 30 ESE 5I3 20 SE LOZ 25 NE BNA 35 ENE DYR 25 ENE ARG 15 E UMN 30 SW BVO 20 SE END 25 W CDS 50 S CVS ROW 10 SSE ALM 30 E DMN 45 SW DMN ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 30 E TRM 20 SSE DAG 50 SSW DRA 45 N LAS 25 SE P38 20 NNW CDC 30 ENE MLF 45 W PUC 35 SE SLC 25 WNW OGD 50 S BYI 20 WSW TWF 55 SE BOI 35 NW SUN 35 SSE 27U 15 NNW BZN 50 ESE LWT 50 NW MLS 30 NW DIK 20 SW BIS 50 WSW MBG 50 NE RAP 40 ESE 81V 45 SW GCC 20 SSE WRL 45 NW RIW 30 E BPI 15 NNE RKS 20 WNW RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 NNE CYS 10 SE SNY 25 SSE LBF 20 NNE GRI 25 S SUX 15 ESE SPW 35 WSW RST 25 SE CWA 35 NNE GRB 40 W PLN ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED TO ADJUST GENERAL THUNDER LINE OVER THE SOUTH ...SYNOPSIS... FAST NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NRN BORDER STATES WILL EXPAND SWD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WITH ORIGINS IN THE SRN STREAM...PHASE WITH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM LAKE MI WSWWD TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ONLY ADVANCE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS BEGINS TO SUBSIDE. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... A STRONG MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY FROM LOWER MI INTO NRN IL AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCES ASCENT ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD TO IA. NARROW WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAINTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CAPPED INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF HAIL UNTIL WARM SECTOR CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SO THAT RESULTANT COLD POOLS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING AND SUPPORT CLUSTERS OR LINES OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER MI/IND BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS. FROM IL WWD TO ERN KS...CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THESE AREAS AND MAY ONLY BE OVERCOME AS LIFT DEEPENS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND IL AFTER DARK. A LINEAR MCS WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AREAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 05:46:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 00:46:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509220546.j8M5kmuV009408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220543 SWODY2 SPC AC 220542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HLC 45 E LAA 40 NNE LHX 35 WNW AKO 15 NNE BFF 30 SSE RAP 20 NNE PHP 30 NE VTN 35 WNW BUB 35 WNW EAR 45 S HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 N HOU 40 SE LFK 30 NNW LCH 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT 25 NNE ACT 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE PBF 40 ESE GWO 55 SE MEI 30 N CEW 15 WSW MGR 40 W JAX 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 NNE BLH 35 E LAS 25 NNE CDC 35 E CNY 50 NNW 4FC 40 S DGW 45 NNE CPR 40 WSW WRL 15 NNE MLD 55 NNW ENV 20 SSW WMC 85 WNW WMC 65 S BNO 60 NNW BOI 15 ENE DLN 30 NW BIL 35 SSE GGW 65 NNW ISN ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 15 ESE JMS 25 WNW BKX 30 NE SUX 15 SSE DSM 25 SSW RFD 20 SSW ARB 20 WNW LBE 20 E BWI 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 40 ESE EWN 35 N FLO 45 WNW AND 25 W CSV 20 NW DYR FYV 50 ENE CSM 30 E LBB 10 SW MAF 50 WSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AFTER MID AFTERNOON AS HRCN RITA APPROACHES TX GULF COAST.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE TX GULF COAST WHERE HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST... REFER TO LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS BY THE NHC/TPC ON HURRICANE RITA. FORECASTS ARE CALLING FOR CENTER OF THIS STRONG HURRICANE TO APPROACH THE TX COAST SSE OF THE HOU AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLE QUADRANT WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND TORNADOES WILL BE EFFECTING PARTS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND NAM-KF SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES OVER SERN TX INTO WRN LA DURING THIS PERIOD TO SUPPORT TORNADOES IN THE ADVANCING RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS AS SLY/SELY RETURN FLOW OCCURS AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN KS INTO NERN SD ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT AT 500 MB AND 70-80 KT AT 250 MB WILL CREATE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO ADVECTION AND AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE 7.5C/KM. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE BETWEEN 45-50 KT SUPPORTING ROTATING STORMS. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 22 17:07:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 12:07:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509221706.j8MH6ptQ001880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221704 SWODY2 SPC AC 221703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PSX 40 N HOU 35 ESE LFK 25 SE POE 10 SSE 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MCK 45 SW IML 40 NE CYS 40 ENE DGW 30 W RAP 10 NNW PHP 15 NW ANW 20 E MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SZL STL 15 W MVN 25 ENE CGI POF 20 NW UMN 60 N JLN SZL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT 25 NNE ACT 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE PBF 40 ESE GWO 55 SE MEI 30 N CEW 15 WSW MGR 40 W JAX 45 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 35 W SOW 60 N INW 35 SSW 4BL 40 SSW GJT 30 WNW GJT 50 E PUC 35 ENE U24 35 WSW DPG 45 NNW ELY 35 NNE U31 25 ENE LOL 20 N WMC 20 N OWY 20 SSE BYI 40 NNE IDA 40 WSW SHR 35 WSW REJ 15 E MBG 50 ENE ABR 35 WSW BRD 65 NE MSP 40 NNE EAU 35 NE VOK 30 NNW MKE 35 S MKG FWA 15 SW CMH 40 WSW MGW 25 SE MRB 15 E ACY ...CONT... 40 ESE EWN 35 N FLO 45 WNW AND 25 W CSV 20 NW DYR FYV 50 ENE CSM 30 E LBB 10 SW MAF 50 WSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN MO INTO SWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH /COMPRISED OF TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES/ IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WITH A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF HEIGHT RISES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. FARTHER TO THE NW...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ERN WY. FINALLY.../PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/ CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER TX COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SRN MO INTO SWRN IL... MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70/ COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WLY WIND FIELDS ABOVE 6 KM AGL SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS REGION INDICATE COOL/DRY ADVECTION OCCURRING IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO AID IN THE NWWD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN NEB. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN SD INTO ERN WY...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD AND SEWD OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO SUSTAIN ANY DEVELOPING STORMS. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS AREA. POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONCURRENTLY INCREASE WITH ANY OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 05:57:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 00:57:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509250557.j8P5v8VE029954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250554 SWODY2 SPC AC 250554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW CTY 35 SSE GNV 45 E DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ORF 35 NE RWI 25 NNW AGS 30 W ABY 20 N PFN 20 SSW PFN 45 WSW AQQ ...CONT... 45 S PSX 55 E CLL 45 NW ELD 15 W MDH 20 NW MIE 30 ESE DTW ...CONT... 35 W ART 10 NW MPV 50 SSE BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF RITA TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD REACHING WRN KY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THIS RUN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH INCREASES CERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. AS AN UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...STRONG ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE A MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW WELL THE INSTABILITY PHASES WITH LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A LOCALIZED AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN LATER MODELS...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ...TN VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MS...LA AND AL. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F...WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 25 18:04:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2005 13:04:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509251804.j8PI4R4c006403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251718 SWODY2 SPC AC 251717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GLS 25 NNW HOU 10 S ACT 35 N PRX 35 N ARG 25 WSW BLV BRL 55 E APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY LK HURON SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS INTO TX. AS SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SSWWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE NORTHEAST... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST NEAR AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THUS LIKELY HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF KY/TN DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW SMALL-SCALE LINES/BOWS WHICH COULD ORGANIZE ALONG FRONT IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN FAR EWD AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION HOWEVER...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE THREAT ATTM. ..GOSS.. 09/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 05:35:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 00:35:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509260534.j8Q5YvNk016567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260532 SWODY2 SPC AC 260531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EWD MONDAY REACHING THE PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE RIDGE...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN STATES AND SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE UPPER-RIDGE TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER A CAPPED AIRMASS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING ASCENT AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEB...KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ..BROYLES.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 05:43:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 00:43:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509260543.j8Q5hHtO020026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260541 SWODY2 SPC AC 260540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ONM 30 SSE GCN 25 ESE SGU 45 ESE ELY 20 NNE ENV 10 SSE BYI 20 NNE IDA 10 WSW COD 35 NW GCC 30 E PHP 50 SSW MHE 10 E OFK BIE 35 ENE ICT 25 SE END 30 NNW FSI 40 ESE PVW 50 SSW CVS 40 W ONM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE PSX 20 S NIR 40 W NIR 30 ENE COT 25 ESE HDO 10 N SAT 25 E AUS 30 SE LFK 35 E MCB DHN 55 NNE AYS 25 NNW CHS 45 ESE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EWD MONDAY REACHING THE PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE RIDGE...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN STATES AND SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE UPPER-RIDGE TO FLATTEN OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION ALLOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER A CAPPED AIRMASS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING ASCENT AND LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEB...KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ..BROYLES.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 26 17:25:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 12:25:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509261725.j8QHP4L9021048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261722 SWODY2 SPC AC 261721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 50 SSE IGM 60 NE NID 40 WNW BIH 20 ESE RNO 35 NNW LOL 20 N OWY 20 N PIH 35 NW LND 20 SW CPR 35 NNE CYS 40 ENE SNY 15 S BUB 20 SE OLU 35 WSW FNB 25 WNW EMP 30 N P28 60 S LBL 10 W HOB 65 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 25 WSW NIR 25 SSW AUS 45 NE ACT 50 SE PRX 35 WNW ELD 20 E MLU 30 N BTR 15 SSW GPT 20 SSE CEW 45 SSW AGS 20 SSW FLO 15 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE SRN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ANY MEANINGFUL AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...SWWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX. AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING AND ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AID POTENTIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK. ...GREAT BASIN TO KS... SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NV INTO WRN CO LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES...AOA 14C...WILL CAP RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER DARK...INCREASING LLJ AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SURGES SOUTH INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ...GULF COAST/CAROLINA COAST... E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. STRONG HEATING ALONG WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THUS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 09/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 05:53:54 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 00:53:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509270553.j8R5rRqO030343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270550 SWODY2 SPC AC 270549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG 15 NW FHU 15 NNW TUS 35 SE PHX 40 ESE PRC 40 E GCN 25 ESE U17 45 SE CNY 20 N MTJ 30 E GUC 45 NW TAD 35 SE RTN 35 NNE TCC 30 WSW AMA 50 ESE AMA 30 SSE GAG 35 E P28 30 N EMP 35 SSW P35 35 ESE IRK 30 SSE SPI 40 ENE BWG HSS 40 W SOP 35 S HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRP 45 S SAT 50 N DRT 10 WSW FST 40 SSE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF NRN CA AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND OZARK MTNS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO NOW APPEARS MORE CERTAIN BECAUSE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN AGREEMENT AS OF THIS EVENINGS MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY STEEP...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE OF GREATER MAGNITUDE IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE MODE AND STORM COVERAGE...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 27 17:39:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 12:39:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509271739.j8RHdOSp024797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271737 SWODY2 SPC AC 271735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 45 S SAT 50 N DRT 10 WSW FST 30 S ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 65 WSW PRC 30 NE LAS 20 WNW P38 40 W U24 50 S SLC 15 WNW VEL 40 WNW 4FC 25 WSW DEN 35 SW COS 15 SE LVS 30 NW CVS 30 S AMA 60 NE AMA 30 ESE LBL 30 SSW RSL 10 S CNK 15 WNW STJ 30 SW UIN 25 NE ALN MVN 10 ENE PAH 25 NNE MKL 55 SW BNA 45 SSW LEX 15 SW UNI 45 WNW EKN 20 NNE SSU 25 W AVL 30 SSE GSP 35 SSW FAY 25 SE EWN 35 SE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ART 35 NW ITH 10 W BFD 20 W YNG 15 SE TOL 20 NE BEH 50 WNW MKG 25 SSE ESC 90 NW ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX TO SRN MO... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH ERN PORTIONS OF OK/SRN MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...SFC PRESSURES WILL RISE MARKEDLY AND FORCE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SEWD TO A POSITION FROM ECNTRL MO...SWWD INTO NWRN TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NOT UNTIL CAP IS ERODED BY AFTERNOON HEATING...AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCEL ASCENT ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD IN THE WAKE OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE INTO WRN MO BEFORE STRONGER HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT ALLOWS BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. IT APPEARS ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE RETURNS NEWD AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT. VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THERE IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR GUSTY SFC WINDS AS HIGH CLOUD BASES AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RESULT IN RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD RH VALUES. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IF CONVECTION CAN INDEED DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...4-CORNERS... UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG INTO NRN AZ DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ENHANCED BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED EAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL READILY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST CONVEYOR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF AZ INTO NRN NM. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THIS REGION...HOWEVER THIS REGION MAY NEED LOW PROBS FOR HAIL IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DARROW.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 05:56:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 00:56:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509280555.j8S5tnsT011691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280553 SWODY2 SPC AC 280552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW LRD 35 SSW SAT 15 ESE TPL 45 SE PRX 45 W MEM 50 NNW CSV 15 WSW ROA 45 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 20 NE PRC 10 E BCE 40 ENE PUC 55 SW CAG 10 E EGE 25 SW COS 10 N RTN 35 ESE 4CR 15 SSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A FAST-MOVING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES ADVECTING RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE SRN AND ERN US. ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE SERN US. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE SRN US. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DECREASING LIFT AND WEAK SHEAR...NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 28 17:43:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 12:43:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509281743.j8SHh8mO027879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281729 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW CAR 25 W 3B1 25 NW CON 15 WNW POU 35 NW AVP 40 WNW ELM 55 N ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 25 SSW FLG 30 S BCE 45 WNW 4HV 50 WSW CAG 30 NNE 4FC 30 WNW LIC 15 SSW LHX 50 N ROW 80 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 20 SE JCT 30 ESE BWD 35 S DAL 40 NNW GGG 20 NNW GWO 40 N HSV 20 ENE LOZ 20 NE BLF 55 SSE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 200M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IN ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY BY MID DAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z/30TH. AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IMPEDED BY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. EVEN SO...STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST A NARROW LINE OF FORCED SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES FROM UPSTATE NY...INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...ELSEWHERE... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WHERE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL PROVE NEGLIGIBLE...FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS...SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION BENEATH UPPER LOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE PERIOD. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE BENEFICIAL IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 09/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 05:48:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 00:48:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509290547.j8T5lrDL009870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290545 SWODY2 SPC AC 290544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BGS 45 E HOB 55 SSE CVS 45 NE CVS 35 E DHT 40 SSW LBL 20 NW GAG 35 N CSM 25 ENE LTS 60 SW SPS 45 W ABI 20 NW BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 30 ENE DMN 25 NW TCS 25 ESE GNT 40 NNE 4SL 40 NW TAD 35 ENE LAA 40 SSW RSL 20 NNE ICT 20 NNW BVO 35 W MKO 20 SSE ADM 10 NW SEP 20 ESE SJT 15 E FST 60 S GDP 40 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE 7R4 35 N GPT 25 NE CSG 35 NW CHS 30 SE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO WITH THE 00Z EVENING MODEL RUNS. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...A LEE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP ADVECT 50 TO 55 F SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL TX NWD INTO AT LEAST THE SRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN ADDITION NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES BELOW 850 MB. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS COINCIDING WITH THE PEAK IN INSTABILITY. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES SEWD INTO NW TX...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 29 17:06:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 12:06:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200509291706.j8TH5xkk004367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291702 SWODY2 SPC AC 291701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BGS 55 NW BGS 30 NW LBB 10 S AMA 50 SSW GAG 30 NE LTS 25 S SPS 45 ENE ABI 35 SSW ABI 25 ESE BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ELP 20 ESE ALM 4CR SAF 55 WSW RTN 40 NNW CAO 15 WSW GCK 45 W HUT 20 S EMP 35 ENE JLN 35 ESE FYV 30 SSW PGO 15 WNW DAL BWD 30 NW JCT 65 N DRT 40 W DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S 7R4 35 N GPT 25 NE CSG 45 N SAV 50 ESE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW FCA S06 40 SW S80 20 S BKE 55 S PDT 40 ESE YKM 10 NE EAT 35 WNW 4OM 70 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MAIN REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL OPEN AND TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN SRN PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NWRN TX/SWRN OK... STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER LOW MAY SUSTAIN AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AT THIS TIME ALONG LEE TROUGH AS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM THE TX S PLAINS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO SWRN OK IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN CHANNEL OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF OPENING UPPER SYSTEM. HERE...GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER. ..MEAD.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.