From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 05:35:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 00:35:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510010535.j915ZqRb028731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010534 SWODY2 SPC AC 010532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW 63S 40 WSW GEG 35 E PUW 15 ESE MSO 35 NW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 35 NE RKS 40 S SLC 40 W ELY 15 WNW U31 25 NNE LOL 60 SSE 4LW 55 E MHS 75 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ 45 W MBS 40 W TOL 10 WNW CMH 30 NNW HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 NW BNA 25 W DYR 40 ESE HRO 15 WNW FYV 25 NE CNU 30 WSW FOD 55 NNW EAU 130 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 S GBN 25 NW SOW 35 W 4SL 45 SE SAF 40 S 4CR 35 SSW ELP ...CONT... 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT 40 S AUS 45 ENE CLL 10 S SHV 45 N HEZ 10 NNW GPT 65 S MOB ...CONT... 40 SSE AQQ 30 S FLO 10 NNW OAJ 65 NNE HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS NWD THROUGH THE ERN PARTS OF THE U.S. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TRACKING ACROSS NRN CA TO THE NRN GRT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL ACCELERATE NEWD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WELL-ESTABLISHED SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN. A BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH...WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GRT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...NRN GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W... INCREASING BANDS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE RESPONSE TO INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWATS WILL BE FARTHER S AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW...SCANT INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. ...PLAIN/UPPER MS VLY... WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS/CORN BELT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AS ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED DOWNSTREAM. STRONGEST DCVA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY IN WAKE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THUS...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THE IMPULSE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT...AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE...BUT DOWNWARD MOTION AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 10/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 17:21:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 12:21:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510011721.j91HLSGR010435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011720 SWODY2 SPC AC 011719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ MBS 20 WNW TOL 10 WNW CMH 30 NNW HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 NW BNA 55 SSW JBR 30 NNW HOT 25 W FYV 25 NE CNU 30 WSW FOD 55 NNW EAU 130 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW 63S 40 WSW GEG 35 E PUW 15 ESE MSO 35 NW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 35 NE RKS 40 S SLC 40 W ELY 15 WNW U31 25 NNE LOL 60 SSE 4LW 55 E MHS 75 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT 40 S AUS 45 ENE CLL 40 S SHV 10 W HEZ 10 NNW GPT 70 SSE MOB ...CONT... 40 SSW PFN 40 NE AYS 10 NNW OAJ 65 NNE HSE ...CONT... 110 S GBN 25 NW SOW 35 W 4SL 45 SE SAF 40 S 4CR 35 SSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W SUNDAY...LARGELY DUE TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WILL OPEN AND DE-AMPLIFY AS IT IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY PUSHING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH APPROACH OF ERN PACIFIC SPEED MAXIMA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS S-CNTRL KS. SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ ALONG/E OF WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NWD/NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LOCAL CLOUD BREAKS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NERN MO...ERN IA AND IL AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM WITH 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 10/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 2 05:50:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 02 Oct 2005 00:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510020550.j925ovi9023085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020549 SWODY2 SPC AC 020548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 40 SSW PRC 40 NE GCN 10 SSW U28 45 NNE GJT 40 ENE GUC 20 NE PUB 45 NNE LAA 45 WSW HLC 50 NNE DDC 25 ESE DDC 45 SSE LBL 50 E TCC 50 N ROW 30 NNE ELP 55 SSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT 60 WNW AUS 50 ENE CLL 40 SE POE 15 NNE MOB 10 ESE DHN 50 SSW AGS 10 S SOP 75 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 185 NNW BUF 20 W MBS 25 NE JVL 35 SSE RST 20 ESE FRM 15 S OTG 20 SW BKX 35 ENE ABR 25 N FAR 45 SSE RRT 55 NNE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N 4OM 45 E GEG 40 SW 3DU 30 N BZN 40 ENE WEY 25 E JAC 15 N EVW 15 ENE DPG 60 WSW ELY 20 WNW TVL 60 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES DEEPENS. INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SWD TOWARD THE NRN GRT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD IN WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...REACHING THE UPPER GRTLKS-UPPER MS VLY-CNTRL PLAINS LINE BY EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...UPPER MS VLY/UPPER GRTLKS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND GRTLKS REGION THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN CAPPED VCNTY THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...INHIBITION WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MN EWD THROUGH NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR TO COMPENSATE WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN/EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /AOB 30 KTS/...SUGGESTING THAT MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE FAVORED WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...WILL BE FOR POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY INCREASES AND IS ENHANCED WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET OVER ONTARIO. MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL. THOUGH THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL RUNS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER STORMS WILL BE MAINLY POST-FRONTAL OR SURFACE BASED. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 10/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 2 17:16:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 02 Oct 2005 12:16:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510021716.j92HGSHg025334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021714 SWODY2 SPC AC 021713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT 60 WNW AUS 50 ENE CLL 40 SE POE 15 NNE MOB 10 ESE DHN 50 SSW AGS 10 S SOP 75 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N 4OM 45 E GEG 40 SW 3DU 30 N BZN 40 ENE WEY 25 E JAC 15 N EVW 35 N DPG 50 SSW EKO 20 SE SVE 55 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 40 SSW PRC 40 NE GCN 25 SE U17 25 SSW MTJ 35 NNW ALS 15 SSE PUB 35 NE CAO 25 WSW DHT 25 SE TCC 50 N ROW 30 NNE ELP 55 SSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 185 NNW BUF 20 W MBS 25 NE JVL 20 NE ALO 15 SW FOD 35 NNE SUX 20 SW BKX 35 ENE ABR 25 N FAR 45 SSE RRT 55 NNE INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAXIMA CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH BASE AND THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...NEXT UPSTREAM SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO MEAN TROUGH BASE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS OF A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N AS ERN SD AND SWRN MN. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ S OF FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING TIME OF STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS...HOWEVER BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG/N OF FRONT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN N OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. NOCTURNAL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 10/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 6 05:32:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 00:32:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510060532.j965VxZU004902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060529 SWODY2 SPC AC 060528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 15 SW AHN 25 SW SSU 15 W AVP 20 SW MPV 65 NE EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW FHU 45 SSE PHX 60 W SOW 55 ENE SOW 15 ESE ALM 25 NNE MRF 80 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE THU...THEN LIKELY SPLIT INTO TWO WAVES. ONE PIECE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY...WHILE ONE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SRN DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO DISLODGE THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN STATES FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST WITH TWO REGIONS OF PRIMARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...ONE OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN DISTURBANCE...AND ANOTHER OVER NEW ENGLAND TIED MORE TO THE UPPER OH VLY SYSTEM. THE SERN LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SAT. ...COASTAL SE... VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL SERN STATES ON FRI. IF THERE IS ANY HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM SRN GA INTO SERN NC. ENHANCED SLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN ERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLD TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS OR A WET MICROBURST. OTHERWISE...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 10/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 6 17:23:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 12:23:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510061723.j96HNjem000966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061721 SWODY2 SPC AC 061720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW FHU 45 SSE PHX 60 WSW SOW SAD 10 NNW SVC 35 SSW ALM 50 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BVE 0A8 TYS LOZ LUK 35 NNW ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL GENERALLY STALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. MODELS DO SUGGEST COLDER AIR WILL ADVANCE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY/WESTERN QUEBEC. UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WESTERN PERIMETER OF HIGH-LEVEL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES. TO THE WEST...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE POLAR WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PHASE WITH STRONGER BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM AND MOIST/MOISTENING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...AS IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY PROVIDED BY LINGERING LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN TROPICAL AIR MASS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HEATING IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT...WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. ...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 10/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 05:26:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 00:26:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510070526.j975QJ0s006833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070524 SWODY2 SPC AC 070520 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 45 NW BHM 40 ENE BNA 40 SSW LOZ 30 NE AVL 15 NW LYH 45 SSW MRB 35 E CXY 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 15 N MLB 25 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW WMC 10 N BNO 45 ENE BKE 50 SSE 27U 35 W SHR 55 ENE RWL 20 WNW DEN 25 W ALS 15 WSW FMN 55 SE U17 45 ENE MLF 25 NNE U31 70 NW WMC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM NEW ENGLAND SSWWD ACROSS THE E COAST STATES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SWD...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEAKENS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH -- FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... THOUGH VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE E COAST STATES THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD YIELD A DEEP MOIST/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. ...INTERIOR ROCKIES... COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST/SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELD SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 10/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 17:27:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 12:27:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510071727.j97HRfNC010458@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071725 SWODY2 SPC AC 071724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AQQ DHN LGC BLF HGR MSV 20 S LEB 30 NNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM EED 10 N NID 40 WNW TVL 40 NNW SVE 55 ESE RDM PUW 3TH 50 NNE MSO HLN MQM 50 NE MLD BPI RIW 10 ENE CPR 45 N ALS 45 SW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL...GENERALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EAST CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...TROPICAL TYPE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST...ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. UPSTREAM...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST LATER TODAY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH IMPULSE IN BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOWER LEVELS WILL WARM IN DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION. FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. HOWEVER... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MOISTURE RETURN IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN APPEARS UNLIKELY SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONG COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MAY OCCUR FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. ..KERR.. 10/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 8 06:01:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 08 Oct 2005 01:01:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510080601.j9861Pqg004411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080558 SWODY2 SPC AC 080557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DUG 35 E PHX 35 W FLG 55 SW SGU 35 SSE ELY 25 SE SLC 30 SSW LAR 25 NNW AKO 35 SSW MHN 20 WNW EAR 15 NNE HUT 40 S SPS 40 WSW BWD 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W AQQ 35 SSW TOI 20 WNW BNA 10 E SDF 20 ESE UNI 10 SSE CHO 30 SSW PSF 20 S PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH TIME...EXPECT A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO EVOLVE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER OVER THE E COAST REGION...WHILE LEE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN REGION OF COOLING ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF STRONG/DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED/CYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST MODELS ATTM -- ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND ADJACENT W TX. AS LEE SURFACE LOW MOVES SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT MARGINAL MOISTURE NWD. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE WIND FIELD VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SLY TO SWLY WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. ATTM HOWEVER...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TO ISOLATED/SUB-SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER...WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST ONLY FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING -- I.E. NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS REGION BEARS MONITORING...AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST... MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE E COAST AND INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THOUGH PRECIPITATION -- ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 10/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From bogus@does.not.exist.com Sat Oct 8 17:35:51 2005 From: bogus@does.not.exist.com () Date: Sat, 08 Oct 2005 12:35:51 -0500 Subject: No subject Message-ID: <200510081735.j98HZcEG024670@mail.goshen.edu> From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 20 16:38:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 11:38:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510201638.j9KGcsGI029802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201636 SWODY2 SPC AC 201635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPT LUL 45 NNW TUP 30 SW OWB 45 S BMG 20 S DAY 25 NNE ZZV 15 NNE MGW 45 NE CHO 15 W WAL 50 ESE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN ON FRI FAVORING A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY ON THU WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY ON FRI AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY BEFORE STRENGTHENING LATER FRI NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND DEEP S FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ...OH/TN VLYS AND SERN STATES... ADVECTION OF HIGHER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH FRI AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT SOMEWHAT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..RACY.. 10/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 05:41:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 00:41:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510210541.j9L5fVKl010742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210539 SWODY2 SPC AC 210538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE EWN 10 WSW SOP GSO 25 W RIC 50 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY 30 ENE AYS 60 WNW CHS 10 SE GSP 30 ENE TRI 40 N SSU 25 NW MRB 10 ENE ABE 15 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 40 NW SAD 30 WSW PRC 45 NE IGM 50 W PGA 45 S 4BL 45 N SAF 50 W CVS 30 W MAF 45 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRENGTHENING MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM WITH FLOW INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 90KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS VA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS WLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OVER SC/NC BY MID DAY AS FLOW SLOWLY VEERS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS ZONE OF STRONG HEATING WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE FOCUSED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. NRN LIMIT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE NWD EXTENT OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER SRN MD OR SRN DE. ..DARROW.. 10/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 17:28:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 12:28:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510211728.j9LHSM5s012968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211726 SWODY2 SPC AC 211725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE AQQ 30 ENE AYS 60 WNW CHS 10 SE GSP 30 ENE TRI 40 N SSU 25 NW MRB 10 ENE ABE 55 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE DUG 40 NW SAD 30 WSW PRC 45 NE IGM 50 W PGA 45 S 4BL 45 N SAF 50 W CVS 30 W MAF 60 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN FULL SWING SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST. A LEAD IMPULSE NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUSION WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH NEW CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY AFTN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SERN SEABOARD. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FL AS HRCN WILMA BEGINS A TURN TO THE NE IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...COASTAL NC/VA/MD... 12Z ETA HAS TRENDED N WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AND IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS OPPOSED TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PCPN SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL AFFECT AFTN HEATING AND LIKELY DECREASE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGER HEATING MAY DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN NC. BUT...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT. FARTHER N...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION GIVEN EARLIER TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. GIVEN THE TREND IN EARLIER TIMING/FARTHER N POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS FAR ERN NC NWD INTO COASTAL VA AND MD. THIS IS WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UVV ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 10/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 05:28:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 00:28:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510220528.j9M5SJE7004598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220526 SWODY2 SPC AC 220525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 50 W SAD 55 SSE IGM 35 WNW IGM 10 SSW SGU 30 NNW PGA 45 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 40 SE LVS 45 NNE ROW 40 NNW MAF 35 SE MAF 50 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 20 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... HURRICANE WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SRN FL UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...OR PERHAPS ON DAY3. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION TO WARRANT A RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS SRN FL. FOR MORE INFO ON WILMA REF LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST FROM NHC. ...SWRN U.S... SRN CA UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS AZ INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ INTO NM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DOWNSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION ATOP COOLER UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY IF LIFTING A PARCEL BETWEEN 800-700MB...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTING WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 10/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 17:18:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 12:18:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510221718.j9MHI1Lx021251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221716 SWODY2 SPC AC 221715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PIE 30 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CTY 50 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 50 W SAD 55 SSE IGM 35 WNW IGM 10 SSW SGU 30 NNW PGA 45 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 40 SE LVS 45 NNE ROW 40 NNW MAF 35 SE MAF 50 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD TROUGH IN THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY DISLODGE HRCN WILMA AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRESH SURGE OF CP AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...REACHING THE OH VLY AND DEEP S BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEEDED BY THE CURRENT FRONT MIGRATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NRN FL. CONTINENTAL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS PARTS OF FL. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... NHC/TPC FORECAST GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER OF HRCN WILMA VERY NEAR THE FL SW COAST BY 12Z MON. ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITIONS. IN THIS SITUATION...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM EARLIER THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED AND NECESSITATES AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK. ..RACY.. 10/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 04:40:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 23:40:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510230440.j9N4eeiB027388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230438 SWODY2 SPC AC 230437 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... FORECAST BASED ON NHC TRACK OF HURRICANE WILMA ACROSS S FL FIRST PORTION OF DAY2 PERIOD. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS S FL INCLUDING THE FL STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFF THE S FL COAST INTO ATLANTIC ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE COLD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POLAR HIGH DOMINATES E OF ROCKIES. ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON DAY2 WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO CA AFTER 25/00Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A THUNDER FORECAST. ..HALES.. 10/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 17:31:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 12:31:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510231731.j9NHVXA4007525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231729 SWODY2 SPC AC 231728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW SRQ 55 ESE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PIE 55 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W TPH 25 N LAS 50 WNW EED 15 NNW DAG 35 W NID 40 SSW FAT 20 N MER 25 S TVL 70 S NFL 15 W TPH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MON. HRCN WILMA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NEWD FROM FL TO OFFSHORE NC BY EARLY TUE AS IT PHASES WITH THE ERN CONUS TROUGH. UPSTREAM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF KSFO WILL DIG SEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN CA LATE MON AS STRONGER GULF OF AK TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... NHC/TPC/MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A 12Z MON LANDFALL OF HRCN WILMA ACROSS SWRN FL. SPIRAL RAINBANDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER MOST OF CNTRL/SRN FL WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE CENTER OF WILMA SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF THE FL EAST COAST BY EARLY AFTN AND INTO THE SWRN ATLANTIC WATERS BY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT... CONSEQUENTLY...WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MON AFTN AS WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. BUT...TRAILING CONFLUENCE BANDS MAY SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS INTO LATE AFTN ACROSS THE ERN PART OF SRN FL. ....SRN CA/WRN NV AREA... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE ACROSS SRN CA/WRN NV MON EVE/NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. INCREASING DCVA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION MON NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCES UVV. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. ..RACY.. 10/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 06:03:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 01:03:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510240603.j9O63Xl3020263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240601 SWODY2 SPC AC 240600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SLC 35 E GJT 25 WNW LVS 15 SSE 4CR 10 E TCS 30 E PHX 35 NW BLH 15 NNE NID 15 WNW BIH 35 ESE LOL 45 NNE EKO SLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CA TO A POSITION SIMILAR TO CURRENT TROUGH OVER NRN AZ. THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 100-200J/KG...IT APPEARS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM SRN NV INTO NWRN NM. THIS REGION WILL ALSO RESIDE ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER JET AXIS WHICH SHOULD AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 10/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 04:50:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 23:50:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510250451.j9P4pAfQ023432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250448 SWODY2 SPC AC 250448 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N 4FC 15 SW COS 40 SSE LHX 40 NW GAG 10 WSW CSM BWD 30 NNW JCT 30 NE FST 20 NNE ROW 25 W ABQ 25 SW CEZ 25 ENE CNY 30 WSW CAG 20 N 4FC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS... WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/27TH. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERCUT HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND TURN SEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE DOMINANT SFC RIDGE IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION/MOISTENING WILL BE SLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING DUE TO ASCENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY...FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IF LIFTING A PARCEL IN THE 800-700MB LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...OR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DARROW.. 10/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 17:06:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 12:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510251706.j9PH6ijW019264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251704 SWODY2 SPC AC 251703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE 4BL 50 N GJT 20 NE CAG 35 SW LAR 15 WSW FCL 15 E COS 30 S LHX 35 SSE SPD 35 NE BGD 55 W CSM 20 WSW LTS 45 NE ABI 10 NNE BWD 30 E JCT 25 SSE JCT 50 N DRT 40 NE 6R6 35 NE FST HOB 40 NE ROW 35 ENE 4CR 10 ENE ABQ 35 NE GNT 45 NNE GUP 25 W CEZ 45 NNE 4BL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST REGIONS SEPARATED BY A SHARP RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS NWD TO CNTRL CANADA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS...WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO NWRN TX. ...ROCKIES TO NWRN TX... MODEST ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE UNDERCUTTING SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE...FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO AND NRN NM...THEN SPREADING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/NWRN TX WITH TIME. LATEST NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...INDICATING NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TX GULF COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION APPEARS UNREALISTIC GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GFS/NAMKF AND ENS GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO S TX. THUS...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST QG FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES INTO PARTS OF TX BY EARLY THURSDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION. ..CARBIN.. 10/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 26 05:28:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2005 00:28:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510260529.j9Q5SpM8020866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260527 SWODY2 SPC AC 260525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 30 N MRF 40 W CNM 45 N ROW 30 NNW CVS 40 W CDS 65 N ABI 55 ENE JCT 45 N NIR 40 SSE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD BENEATH PLAINS RIDGE TOWARD THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER TX. IT APPEARS EARLIER NAM GUIDANCE WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WITH LATEST DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ALONG THE TX COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL BE MEAGER AT BEST...BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING/DEVELOPING SEWD IN RESPONSE TO GREATEST ZONE OF ASCENT. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 26 16:53:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2005 11:53:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510261653.j9QGrkA2027850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261651 SWODY2 SPC AC 261650 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 6R6 20 N FST 40 NNE CNM 30 NNE ROW 40 WSW CVS 30 NE CVS 15 NW PVW 25 SW ABI SAT 50 SE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ON DAY 2 WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE EAST AND WEST...AND A SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY UNDERCUTTING SCNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS TX ON THURSDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN BLANKETED BY A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESTRICTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT...GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON THE FAR SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...ACROSS THE WRN/SWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...SERN NM TO SRN TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE CVA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD FROM WEST TX DURING THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ATOP RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. NAM APPEARS TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST DURING THE DAY WHICH RESULTS IN GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THUS...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OCCUR WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW. ..CARBIN.. 10/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 27 05:35:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 00:35:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510270539.j9R5dGRR021312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270534 SWODY2 SPC AC 270533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE SAD 25 NNE SOW 45 ESE PGA 30 SSE 4HV 25 W GJT 25 SSE ASE 35 W TAD 60 WSW TCC 55 WNW CNM 15 E DMN 45 NE SAD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL LINGER AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF DOMINANT SFC RIDGE WEDGED INTO TX...EVENTUALLY RETURNING NWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN ROCKIES REGION AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...FEW HUNDRED J/KG...WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM SRN NM INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COVERAGE OF TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 27 17:30:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 12:30:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510271731.j9RHV9Tk018270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271729 SWODY2 SPC AC 271728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW EED 65 W DRA 65 E TPH 45 ENE P38 55 N PUC 45 SSE LND 25 ESE SHR 45 SE 81V 15 S SNY 20 NNW LHX 30 N CVS 15 SSW GDP 45 SW DMN 45 WNW SAD 40 S FLG 50 NNW GBN 45 WNW EED. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE W COAST STATES -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE INTERIOR ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SPECIFIC TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST...A SMALLER-SCALE/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 29/12Z. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A CORRESPONDING/SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN THE WRN AND ERN TROUGHS. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO WY... MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH -- SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING MAINLY INTO NM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 10/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 28 05:21:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2005 00:21:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510280522.j9S5MBSa006456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280520 SWODY2 SPC AC 280519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW HVR GDV 15 NNW Y22 PIR 9V9 10 E BKX MSP EAU VOK 10 SE CID OJC EMP AVK CDS 60 W MRF ...CONT... 50 SSW DMN GUP U28 10 SW DPG OWY 20 ENE BKE PDT 25 ESE DLS 15 NE PDX 60 WSW HQM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE REGIME LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...STILL EVOLVING TODAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. LARGE-SURFACE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN/RETREAT...AND IT APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG. THIS WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF LOWER-LEVELS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE...AHEAD OF BROADENING /LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER A BROAD AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITHIN THIS AREA... COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIRMASS /500 TEMPS AOB -20C/ IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...WEAK MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD... DESTABILIZATION WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MISSOURI VALLEY... MID-LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS COOL...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST A LIMITED NORTHEASTWARD RETURN FLOW OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO...AND NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH... FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SATURDAY EVENING...NEW WEAK STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ..KERR.. 10/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 28 17:30:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2005 12:30:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510281730.j9SHUXbs027653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281724 SWODY2 SPC AC 281723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 60 ENE SOW 20 S U28 40 ENE ELY OWY 25 E MYL 15 E HLN 60 SW GGW GDV 20 S Y22 45 NNW VTN 40 SSW 9V9 30 WNW ATY 40 NNW ELO ...CONT... 90 NE MQT 40 NNE RHI 10 ESE DSM 30 ESE OJC 15 S CQB 25 WNW FSI BGS 40 WNW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS LIKEWISE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WEAKENING WITH TIME. WITH LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS... COOLING TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG WEAK FRONT OVER THE PLAINS FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED. ..GOSS.. 10/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 29 05:43:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 00:43:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510290544.j9T5iHSR019196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290542 SWODY2 SPC AC 290541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLI 25 NNW DLS 50 ENE EUG 40 WSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR MHN EAR LNK SDA 10 ESE LWD 45 SSE IRK TBN FLP HOT TXK FTW PVW 10 NNW RTN U17 U24 DPG MLD WEY BIL 10 NNW GCC CDR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN BETWEEN...A LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC REGIME IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY...BEFORE BROAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRECEDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO LARGE HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY MINIMIZING OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS... ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AT LEAST BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ..KERR.. 10/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 29 17:05:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 12:05:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510291706.j9TH6Eso030600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291704 SWODY2 SPC AC 291703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR MHN EAR LNK SDA 10 ESE LWD 45 SSE IRK 30 NNW POF 10 SSE JBR 15 SSE GLH 15 SW SHV FTW PVW 35 NNW LVS U17 U24 DPG MLD WEY BIL 10 NNW GCC CDR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO PAC NW EARLY SUNDAY. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ON W COAST...SRN PORTION OF S/WV TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 70KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET MOVING THRU 4-CORNERS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING. SRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL SLOW AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE GULF COAST PERSISTS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS TX INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD ON 25-30KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TX RANGING DOWNWARD TO THE 50S SWRN MO. WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH DIGGING S/WV NOT ENTERING THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE PERSISTENT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH LIMITED CIN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... MOST LIKELY VICINITY AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SWRN MO INTO NRN OK. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT ALONG WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL. SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AS STRONG UPWARD MOTION SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES. ..HALES.. 10/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 30 05:25:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2005 00:25:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510300525.j9U5PUmf019319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300522 SWODY2 SPC AC 300521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX SAT BWD SPS 20 S MLC 10 WNW DEQ IER 50 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 35 ENE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 25 WNW BGS 25 WNW CDS AVK ICT LWD 30 WSW RHI 95 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 65 E OSC LAN MVN MKL JAN 70 SW HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF COASTAL AREAS.... DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AS THE TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION...MODELS INDICATE UPSTREAM PATTERN ...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S... WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH HAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC REGIME...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES NOW PROGRESSING INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN AMPLIFYING/ DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF COLDER LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO SEEMS MOST LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST NAM RUN IS NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH GFS...INDICATING SHORT WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS... LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS IS FINALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY...AND MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AT LEAST LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY. EVOLUTION INTO PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW ...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST WITH CONVECTION INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES... FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY...BUT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 10/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 30 17:36:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2005 12:36:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510301736.j9UHante019123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301735 SWODY2 SPC AC 301734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST SUN OCT 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CRP 10 SSW NIR 35 NW COT 20 N DRT 35 SSW ABI 45 W SPS 20 S MLC 10 WNW DEQ IER 50 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 35 ENE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW 6R6 45 N BGS 20 NNW PVW 45 ENE BGD 35 E CNU 25 SE BRL 25 NE MLI 15 SW DBQ 25 WSW ALO 10 ESE OTG 30 NNE RWF 15 S BFW 30 ESE CMX 30 N APN 25 SSE OSC 45 SSW JXN 25 SSE MVN 60 ENE PBF 45 NNE HEZ 50 SE BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND INTO DAY TWO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO OK/W TX. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN 2/3 OF TX... THOUGH COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT FROM OK/AR NEWD. FURTHER S INTO TX...RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCESSIVELY STRONG...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SPREADING EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF TX -- MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS AIRMASS SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 06:24:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 01:24:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510310624.j9V6OCfl013681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310622 SWODY2 SPC AC 310621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 55 SE OLM EUG 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S LCH HEZ JAN MEI TOI ABY 40 E CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW AFTER IT REACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER/MORE PROMINENT BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHERN STREAM...ACCELERATES MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ITS WAKE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. ...GULF COAST... PERSISTENT COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...AND WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW. ...FLORIDA... PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...NOW SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES LOCALLY ENHANCED. THOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IN WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. ..KERR.. 10/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 17:24:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 12:24:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510311724.j9VHORcQ011098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311722 SWODY2 SPC AC 311721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 10 W OLM 45 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AAF 40 ESE SSI ...CONT... 65 SSE 7R4 30 S HEZ 40 SSW JAN 20 SE PIB 45 SSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF COAST/FL PENINSULA... SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE LA COAST AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. A VERY FOCUSED WIND SHIFT AND SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH DAY1 INTO THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. NRN PORTIONS OF TSTM LINE SEGMENT WILL TRANSLATE OFF THE LA/MS COAST EARLY WITH INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM...LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN FL PENINSULA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTEN/WEAKEN PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...SPREADING NWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...PACIFIC NW... POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WA COAST. IT APPEARS STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HOLDING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 05:35:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 00:35:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510010535.j915ZqRb028731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010534 SWODY2 SPC AC 010532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW 63S 40 WSW GEG 35 E PUW 15 ESE MSO 35 NW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 35 NE RKS 40 S SLC 40 W ELY 15 WNW U31 25 NNE LOL 60 SSE 4LW 55 E MHS 75 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ 45 W MBS 40 W TOL 10 WNW CMH 30 NNW HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 NW BNA 25 W DYR 40 ESE HRO 15 WNW FYV 25 NE CNU 30 WSW FOD 55 NNW EAU 130 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 S GBN 25 NW SOW 35 W 4SL 45 SE SAF 40 S 4CR 35 SSW ELP ...CONT... 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT 40 S AUS 45 ENE CLL 10 S SHV 45 N HEZ 10 NNW GPT 65 S MOB ...CONT... 40 SSE AQQ 30 S FLO 10 NNW OAJ 65 NNE HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS NWD THROUGH THE ERN PARTS OF THE U.S. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TRACKING ACROSS NRN CA TO THE NRN GRT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL ACCELERATE NEWD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WELL-ESTABLISHED SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN. A BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH...WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GRT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...NRN GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W... INCREASING BANDS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE RESPONSE TO INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWATS WILL BE FARTHER S AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW...SCANT INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. ...PLAIN/UPPER MS VLY... WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS/CORN BELT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AS ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED DOWNSTREAM. STRONGEST DCVA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY IN WAKE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THUS...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THE IMPULSE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT...AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE...BUT DOWNWARD MOTION AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 10/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 1 17:21:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2005 12:21:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510011721.j91HLSGR010435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011720 SWODY2 SPC AC 011719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ MBS 20 WNW TOL 10 WNW CMH 30 NNW HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 NW BNA 55 SSW JBR 30 NNW HOT 25 W FYV 25 NE CNU 30 WSW FOD 55 NNW EAU 130 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW 63S 40 WSW GEG 35 E PUW 15 ESE MSO 35 NW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 35 NE RKS 40 S SLC 40 W ELY 15 WNW U31 25 NNE LOL 60 SSE 4LW 55 E MHS 75 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT 40 S AUS 45 ENE CLL 40 S SHV 10 W HEZ 10 NNW GPT 70 SSE MOB ...CONT... 40 SSW PFN 40 NE AYS 10 NNW OAJ 65 NNE HSE ...CONT... 110 S GBN 25 NW SOW 35 W 4SL 45 SE SAF 40 S 4CR 35 SSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W SUNDAY...LARGELY DUE TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WILL OPEN AND DE-AMPLIFY AS IT IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY PUSHING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH APPROACH OF ERN PACIFIC SPEED MAXIMA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS S-CNTRL KS. SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ ALONG/E OF WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED NWD/NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LOCAL CLOUD BREAKS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NERN MO...ERN IA AND IL AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM WITH 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 10/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 2 05:50:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 02 Oct 2005 00:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510020550.j925ovi9023085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020549 SWODY2 SPC AC 020548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 40 SSW PRC 40 NE GCN 10 SSW U28 45 NNE GJT 40 ENE GUC 20 NE PUB 45 NNE LAA 45 WSW HLC 50 NNE DDC 25 ESE DDC 45 SSE LBL 50 E TCC 50 N ROW 30 NNE ELP 55 SSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT 60 WNW AUS 50 ENE CLL 40 SE POE 15 NNE MOB 10 ESE DHN 50 SSW AGS 10 S SOP 75 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 185 NNW BUF 20 W MBS 25 NE JVL 35 SSE RST 20 ESE FRM 15 S OTG 20 SW BKX 35 ENE ABR 25 N FAR 45 SSE RRT 55 NNE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N 4OM 45 E GEG 40 SW 3DU 30 N BZN 40 ENE WEY 25 E JAC 15 N EVW 15 ENE DPG 60 WSW ELY 20 WNW TVL 60 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES DEEPENS. INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SWD TOWARD THE NRN GRT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD IN WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...REACHING THE UPPER GRTLKS-UPPER MS VLY-CNTRL PLAINS LINE BY EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...UPPER MS VLY/UPPER GRTLKS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND GRTLKS REGION THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN CAPPED VCNTY THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...INHIBITION WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MN EWD THROUGH NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR TO COMPENSATE WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN/EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /AOB 30 KTS/...SUGGESTING THAT MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE FAVORED WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...WILL BE FOR POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY INCREASES AND IS ENHANCED WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET OVER ONTARIO. MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL. THOUGH THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL RUNS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER STORMS WILL BE MAINLY POST-FRONTAL OR SURFACE BASED. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 10/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 2 17:16:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 02 Oct 2005 12:16:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510021716.j92HGSHg025334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021714 SWODY2 SPC AC 021713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT 60 WNW AUS 50 ENE CLL 40 SE POE 15 NNE MOB 10 ESE DHN 50 SSW AGS 10 S SOP 75 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N 4OM 45 E GEG 40 SW 3DU 30 N BZN 40 ENE WEY 25 E JAC 15 N EVW 35 N DPG 50 SSW EKO 20 SE SVE 55 WNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 40 SSW PRC 40 NE GCN 25 SE U17 25 SSW MTJ 35 NNW ALS 15 SSE PUB 35 NE CAO 25 WSW DHT 25 SE TCC 50 N ROW 30 NNE ELP 55 SSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 185 NNW BUF 20 W MBS 25 NE JVL 20 NE ALO 15 SW FOD 35 NNE SUX 20 SW BKX 35 ENE ABR 25 N FAR 45 SSE RRT 55 NNE INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAXIMA CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH BASE AND THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...NEXT UPSTREAM SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO MEAN TROUGH BASE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT SAGS SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS OF A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N AS ERN SD AND SWRN MN. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ S OF FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING TIME OF STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS...HOWEVER BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG/N OF FRONT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN N OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. NOCTURNAL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 10/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 6 05:32:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 00:32:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510060532.j965VxZU004902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060529 SWODY2 SPC AC 060528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 15 SW AHN 25 SW SSU 15 W AVP 20 SW MPV 65 NE EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW FHU 45 SSE PHX 60 W SOW 55 ENE SOW 15 ESE ALM 25 NNE MRF 80 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE THU...THEN LIKELY SPLIT INTO TWO WAVES. ONE PIECE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY...WHILE ONE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SRN DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO DISLODGE THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN STATES FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST WITH TWO REGIONS OF PRIMARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...ONE OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN DISTURBANCE...AND ANOTHER OVER NEW ENGLAND TIED MORE TO THE UPPER OH VLY SYSTEM. THE SERN LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SAT. ...COASTAL SE... VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL SERN STATES ON FRI. IF THERE IS ANY HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM SRN GA INTO SERN NC. ENHANCED SLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN ERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLD TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS OR A WET MICROBURST. OTHERWISE...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 10/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 6 17:23:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 12:23:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510061723.j96HNjem000966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061721 SWODY2 SPC AC 061720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW FHU 45 SSE PHX 60 WSW SOW SAD 10 NNW SVC 35 SSW ALM 50 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BVE 0A8 TYS LOZ LUK 35 NNW ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL GENERALLY STALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. MODELS DO SUGGEST COLDER AIR WILL ADVANCE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY/WESTERN QUEBEC. UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WESTERN PERIMETER OF HIGH-LEVEL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES. TO THE WEST...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE POLAR WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PHASE WITH STRONGER BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM AND MOIST/MOISTENING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...AS IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY PROVIDED BY LINGERING LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN TROPICAL AIR MASS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HEATING IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT...WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. ...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 10/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 05:26:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 00:26:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510070526.j975QJ0s006833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070524 SWODY2 SPC AC 070520 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 45 NW BHM 40 ENE BNA 40 SSW LOZ 30 NE AVL 15 NW LYH 45 SSW MRB 35 E CXY 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 15 N MLB 25 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW WMC 10 N BNO 45 ENE BKE 50 SSE 27U 35 W SHR 55 ENE RWL 20 WNW DEN 25 W ALS 15 WSW FMN 55 SE U17 45 ENE MLF 25 NNE U31 70 NW WMC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM NEW ENGLAND SSWWD ACROSS THE E COAST STATES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SWD...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEAKENS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH -- FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... THOUGH VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE E COAST STATES THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD YIELD A DEEP MOIST/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. ...INTERIOR ROCKIES... COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST/SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELD SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 10/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 7 17:27:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 07 Oct 2005 12:27:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510071727.j97HRfNC010458@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071725 SWODY2 SPC AC 071724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AQQ DHN LGC BLF HGR MSV 20 S LEB 30 NNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM EED 10 N NID 40 WNW TVL 40 NNW SVE 55 ESE RDM PUW 3TH 50 NNE MSO HLN MQM 50 NE MLD BPI RIW 10 ENE CPR 45 N ALS 45 SW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL...GENERALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EAST CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...TROPICAL TYPE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST...ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. UPSTREAM...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST LATER TODAY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH IMPULSE IN BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOWER LEVELS WILL WARM IN DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIFT OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION. FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. HOWEVER... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MOISTURE RETURN IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN APPEARS UNLIKELY SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONG COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MAY OCCUR FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. ..KERR.. 10/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 8 06:01:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 08 Oct 2005 01:01:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510080601.j9861Pqg004411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080558 SWODY2 SPC AC 080557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DUG 35 E PHX 35 W FLG 55 SW SGU 35 SSE ELY 25 SE SLC 30 SSW LAR 25 NNW AKO 35 SSW MHN 20 WNW EAR 15 NNE HUT 40 S SPS 40 WSW BWD 25 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W AQQ 35 SSW TOI 20 WNW BNA 10 E SDF 20 ESE UNI 10 SSE CHO 30 SSW PSF 20 S PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH TIME...EXPECT A LARGE CLOSED LOW TO EVOLVE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER OVER THE E COAST REGION...WHILE LEE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN REGION OF COOLING ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF STRONG/DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED/CYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST MODELS ATTM -- ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND ADJACENT W TX. AS LEE SURFACE LOW MOVES SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT MARGINAL MOISTURE NWD. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE WIND FIELD VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SLY TO SWLY WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. ATTM HOWEVER...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TO ISOLATED/SUB-SEVERE STORMS. FURTHER...WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST ONLY FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING -- I.E. NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS REGION BEARS MONITORING...AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST... MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE E COAST AND INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THOUGH PRECIPITATION -- ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 10/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From bogus@does.not.exist.com Sat Oct 8 17:35:51 2005 From: bogus@does.not.exist.com () Date: Sat, 08 Oct 2005 12:35:51 -0500 Subject: No subject Message-ID: <200510081735.j98HZcEG024670@mail.goshen.edu> From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 20 16:38:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 11:38:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510201638.j9KGcsGI029802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201636 SWODY2 SPC AC 201635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPT LUL 45 NNW TUP 30 SW OWB 45 S BMG 20 S DAY 25 NNE ZZV 15 NNE MGW 45 NE CHO 15 W WAL 50 ESE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN ON FRI FAVORING A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY ON THU WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY ON FRI AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY BEFORE STRENGTHENING LATER FRI NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND DEEP S FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ...OH/TN VLYS AND SERN STATES... ADVECTION OF HIGHER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH FRI AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT SOMEWHAT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..RACY.. 10/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 05:41:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 00:41:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510210541.j9L5fVKl010742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210539 SWODY2 SPC AC 210538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE EWN 10 WSW SOP GSO 25 W RIC 50 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY 30 ENE AYS 60 WNW CHS 10 SE GSP 30 ENE TRI 40 N SSU 25 NW MRB 10 ENE ABE 15 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 40 NW SAD 30 WSW PRC 45 NE IGM 50 W PGA 45 S 4BL 45 N SAF 50 W CVS 30 W MAF 45 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRENGTHENING MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM WITH FLOW INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 90KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS VA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS WLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OVER SC/NC BY MID DAY AS FLOW SLOWLY VEERS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS ZONE OF STRONG HEATING WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE FOCUSED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. NRN LIMIT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE NWD EXTENT OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER SRN MD OR SRN DE. ..DARROW.. 10/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 21 17:28:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 12:28:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510211728.j9LHSM5s012968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211726 SWODY2 SPC AC 211725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE AQQ 30 ENE AYS 60 WNW CHS 10 SE GSP 30 ENE TRI 40 N SSU 25 NW MRB 10 ENE ABE 55 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE DUG 40 NW SAD 30 WSW PRC 45 NE IGM 50 W PGA 45 S 4BL 45 N SAF 50 W CVS 30 W MAF 60 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN FULL SWING SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST. A LEAD IMPULSE NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUSION WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH NEW CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY AFTN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SERN SEABOARD. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FL AS HRCN WILMA BEGINS A TURN TO THE NE IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...COASTAL NC/VA/MD... 12Z ETA HAS TRENDED N WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AND IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS OPPOSED TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PCPN SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL AFFECT AFTN HEATING AND LIKELY DECREASE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGER HEATING MAY DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN NC. BUT...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT. FARTHER N...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION GIVEN EARLIER TIMING OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. GIVEN THE TREND IN EARLIER TIMING/FARTHER N POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS FAR ERN NC NWD INTO COASTAL VA AND MD. THIS IS WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UVV ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 10/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 05:28:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 00:28:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510220528.j9M5SJE7004598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220526 SWODY2 SPC AC 220525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 50 W SAD 55 SSE IGM 35 WNW IGM 10 SSW SGU 30 NNW PGA 45 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 40 SE LVS 45 NNE ROW 40 NNW MAF 35 SE MAF 50 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 20 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... HURRICANE WILMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SRN FL UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...OR PERHAPS ON DAY3. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION TO WARRANT A RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS SRN FL. FOR MORE INFO ON WILMA REF LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST FROM NHC. ...SWRN U.S... SRN CA UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS AZ INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ INTO NM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. DOWNSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION ATOP COOLER UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY IF LIFTING A PARCEL BETWEEN 800-700MB...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTING WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 10/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 22 17:18:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 12:18:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510221718.j9MHI1Lx021251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221716 SWODY2 SPC AC 221715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW PIE 30 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CTY 50 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 50 W SAD 55 SSE IGM 35 WNW IGM 10 SSW SGU 30 NNW PGA 45 WSW ALS 40 W RTN 40 SE LVS 45 NNE ROW 40 NNW MAF 35 SE MAF 50 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD TROUGH IN THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY DISLODGE HRCN WILMA AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRESH SURGE OF CP AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH...REACHING THE OH VLY AND DEEP S BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEEDED BY THE CURRENT FRONT MIGRATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NRN FL. CONTINENTAL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS PARTS OF FL. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... NHC/TPC FORECAST GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER OF HRCN WILMA VERY NEAR THE FL SW COAST BY 12Z MON. ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITIONS. IN THIS SITUATION...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM EARLIER THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED AND NECESSITATES AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK. ..RACY.. 10/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 04:40:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 22 Oct 2005 23:40:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510230440.j9N4eeiB027388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230438 SWODY2 SPC AC 230437 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... FORECAST BASED ON NHC TRACK OF HURRICANE WILMA ACROSS S FL FIRST PORTION OF DAY2 PERIOD. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS S FL INCLUDING THE FL STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFF THE S FL COAST INTO ATLANTIC ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE COLD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POLAR HIGH DOMINATES E OF ROCKIES. ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON DAY2 WOULD BE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO CA AFTER 25/00Z. AT THIS TIME EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A THUNDER FORECAST. ..HALES.. 10/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 23 17:31:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2005 12:31:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510231731.j9NHVXA4007525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231729 SWODY2 SPC AC 231728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW SRQ 55 ESE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PIE 55 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W TPH 25 N LAS 50 WNW EED 15 NNW DAG 35 W NID 40 SSW FAT 20 N MER 25 S TVL 70 S NFL 15 W TPH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MON. HRCN WILMA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NEWD FROM FL TO OFFSHORE NC BY EARLY TUE AS IT PHASES WITH THE ERN CONUS TROUGH. UPSTREAM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF KSFO WILL DIG SEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN CA LATE MON AS STRONGER GULF OF AK TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... NHC/TPC/MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A 12Z MON LANDFALL OF HRCN WILMA ACROSS SWRN FL. SPIRAL RAINBANDS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER MOST OF CNTRL/SRN FL WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE CENTER OF WILMA SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF THE FL EAST COAST BY EARLY AFTN AND INTO THE SWRN ATLANTIC WATERS BY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT... CONSEQUENTLY...WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MON AFTN AS WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. BUT...TRAILING CONFLUENCE BANDS MAY SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS INTO LATE AFTN ACROSS THE ERN PART OF SRN FL. ....SRN CA/WRN NV AREA... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE ACROSS SRN CA/WRN NV MON EVE/NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. INCREASING DCVA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION MON NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCES UVV. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. ..RACY.. 10/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 24 06:03:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 01:03:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510240603.j9O63Xl3020263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240601 SWODY2 SPC AC 240600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SLC 35 E GJT 25 WNW LVS 15 SSE 4CR 10 E TCS 30 E PHX 35 NW BLH 15 NNE NID 15 WNW BIH 35 ESE LOL 45 NNE EKO SLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CA TO A POSITION SIMILAR TO CURRENT TROUGH OVER NRN AZ. THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 100-200J/KG...IT APPEARS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM SRN NV INTO NWRN NM. THIS REGION WILL ALSO RESIDE ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER JET AXIS WHICH SHOULD AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 10/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 04:50:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 23:50:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510250451.j9P4pAfQ023432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250448 SWODY2 SPC AC 250448 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N 4FC 15 SW COS 40 SSE LHX 40 NW GAG 10 WSW CSM BWD 30 NNW JCT 30 NE FST 20 NNE ROW 25 W ABQ 25 SW CEZ 25 ENE CNY 30 WSW CAG 20 N 4FC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS... WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/27TH. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERCUT HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND TURN SEWD TOWARD CNTRL TX LATER IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE DOMINANT SFC RIDGE IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION/MOISTENING WILL BE SLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING DUE TO ASCENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY...FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IF LIFTING A PARCEL IN THE 800-700MB LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...OR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DARROW.. 10/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 25 17:06:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 12:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510251706.j9PH6ijW019264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251704 SWODY2 SPC AC 251703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE 4BL 50 N GJT 20 NE CAG 35 SW LAR 15 WSW FCL 15 E COS 30 S LHX 35 SSE SPD 35 NE BGD 55 W CSM 20 WSW LTS 45 NE ABI 10 NNE BWD 30 E JCT 25 SSE JCT 50 N DRT 40 NE 6R6 35 NE FST HOB 40 NE ROW 35 ENE 4CR 10 ENE ABQ 35 NE GNT 45 NNE GUP 25 W CEZ 45 NNE 4BL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST REGIONS SEPARATED BY A SHARP RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS NWD TO CNTRL CANADA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS...WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO NWRN TX. ...ROCKIES TO NWRN TX... MODEST ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE UNDERCUTTING SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE...FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO AND NRN NM...THEN SPREADING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/NWRN TX WITH TIME. LATEST NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...INDICATING NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TX GULF COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION APPEARS UNREALISTIC GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND GFS/NAMKF AND ENS GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO S TX. THUS...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST QG FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES INTO PARTS OF TX BY EARLY THURSDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION. ..CARBIN.. 10/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 26 05:28:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2005 00:28:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510260529.j9Q5SpM8020866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260527 SWODY2 SPC AC 260525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 30 N MRF 40 W CNM 45 N ROW 30 NNW CVS 40 W CDS 65 N ABI 55 ENE JCT 45 N NIR 40 SSE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD BENEATH PLAINS RIDGE TOWARD THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER TX. IT APPEARS EARLIER NAM GUIDANCE WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WITH LATEST DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ALONG THE TX COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL BE MEAGER AT BEST...BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING/DEVELOPING SEWD IN RESPONSE TO GREATEST ZONE OF ASCENT. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 26 16:53:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2005 11:53:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510261653.j9QGrkA2027850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261651 SWODY2 SPC AC 261650 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 6R6 20 N FST 40 NNE CNM 30 NNE ROW 40 WSW CVS 30 NE CVS 15 NW PVW 25 SW ABI SAT 50 SE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ON DAY 2 WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE EAST AND WEST...AND A SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY UNDERCUTTING SCNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS TX ON THURSDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN BLANKETED BY A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESTRICTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT...GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON THE FAR SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...ACROSS THE WRN/SWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...SERN NM TO SRN TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE CVA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD FROM WEST TX DURING THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ATOP RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. NAM APPEARS TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST DURING THE DAY WHICH RESULTS IN GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THUS...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OCCUR WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW. ..CARBIN.. 10/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 27 05:35:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 00:35:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510270539.j9R5dGRR021312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270534 SWODY2 SPC AC 270533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE SAD 25 NNE SOW 45 ESE PGA 30 SSE 4HV 25 W GJT 25 SSE ASE 35 W TAD 60 WSW TCC 55 WNW CNM 15 E DMN 45 NE SAD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL LINGER AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF DOMINANT SFC RIDGE WEDGED INTO TX...EVENTUALLY RETURNING NWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN ROCKIES REGION AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...FEW HUNDRED J/KG...WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM SRN NM INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COVERAGE OF TSTMS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 27 17:30:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 12:30:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510271731.j9RHV9Tk018270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271729 SWODY2 SPC AC 271728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW EED 65 W DRA 65 E TPH 45 ENE P38 55 N PUC 45 SSE LND 25 ESE SHR 45 SE 81V 15 S SNY 20 NNW LHX 30 N CVS 15 SSW GDP 45 SW DMN 45 WNW SAD 40 S FLG 50 NNW GBN 45 WNW EED. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE W COAST STATES -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE INTERIOR ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE SPECIFIC TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST...A SMALLER-SCALE/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 29/12Z. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A CORRESPONDING/SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN THE WRN AND ERN TROUGHS. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO WY... MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH -- SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON THE EVENING...AND SHIFTING MAINLY INTO NM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 10/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 28 05:21:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2005 00:21:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510280522.j9S5MBSa006456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280520 SWODY2 SPC AC 280519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW HVR GDV 15 NNW Y22 PIR 9V9 10 E BKX MSP EAU VOK 10 SE CID OJC EMP AVK CDS 60 W MRF ...CONT... 50 SSW DMN GUP U28 10 SW DPG OWY 20 ENE BKE PDT 25 ESE DLS 15 NE PDX 60 WSW HQM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE REGIME LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...STILL EVOLVING TODAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. LARGE-SURFACE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN/RETREAT...AND IT APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG. THIS WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF LOWER-LEVELS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE...AHEAD OF BROADENING /LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER A BROAD AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITHIN THIS AREA... COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIRMASS /500 TEMPS AOB -20C/ IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...WEAK MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD... DESTABILIZATION WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MISSOURI VALLEY... MID-LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS COOL...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST A LIMITED NORTHEASTWARD RETURN FLOW OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO...AND NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH... FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SATURDAY EVENING...NEW WEAK STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ..KERR.. 10/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 28 17:30:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2005 12:30:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510281730.j9SHUXbs027653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281724 SWODY2 SPC AC 281723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 60 ENE SOW 20 S U28 40 ENE ELY OWY 25 E MYL 15 E HLN 60 SW GGW GDV 20 S Y22 45 NNW VTN 40 SSW 9V9 30 WNW ATY 40 NNW ELO ...CONT... 90 NE MQT 40 NNE RHI 10 ESE DSM 30 ESE OJC 15 S CQB 25 WNW FSI BGS 40 WNW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS LIKEWISE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WEAKENING WITH TIME. WITH LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS... COOLING TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG WEAK FRONT OVER THE PLAINS FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED. ..GOSS.. 10/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 29 05:43:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 00:43:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510290544.j9T5iHSR019196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290542 SWODY2 SPC AC 290541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLI 25 NNW DLS 50 ENE EUG 40 WSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR MHN EAR LNK SDA 10 ESE LWD 45 SSE IRK TBN FLP HOT TXK FTW PVW 10 NNW RTN U17 U24 DPG MLD WEY BIL 10 NNW GCC CDR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN BETWEEN...A LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC REGIME IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY...BEFORE BROAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRECEDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO LARGE HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY MINIMIZING OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS... ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AT LEAST BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ..KERR.. 10/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 29 17:05:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 29 Oct 2005 12:05:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510291706.j9TH6Eso030600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291704 SWODY2 SPC AC 291703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR MHN EAR LNK SDA 10 ESE LWD 45 SSE IRK 30 NNW POF 10 SSE JBR 15 SSE GLH 15 SW SHV FTW PVW 35 NNW LVS U17 U24 DPG MLD WEY BIL 10 NNW GCC CDR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO PAC NW EARLY SUNDAY. WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ON W COAST...SRN PORTION OF S/WV TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 70KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET MOVING THRU 4-CORNERS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING. SRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL SLOW AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE GULF COAST PERSISTS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS TX INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD ON 25-30KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TX RANGING DOWNWARD TO THE 50S SWRN MO. WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH DIGGING S/WV NOT ENTERING THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE PERSISTENT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH LIMITED CIN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... MOST LIKELY VICINITY AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SWRN MO INTO NRN OK. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT ALONG WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL. SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AS STRONG UPWARD MOTION SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES. ..HALES.. 10/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 30 05:25:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2005 00:25:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510300525.j9U5PUmf019319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300522 SWODY2 SPC AC 300521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE PSX SAT BWD SPS 20 S MLC 10 WNW DEQ IER 50 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 35 ENE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 25 WNW BGS 25 WNW CDS AVK ICT LWD 30 WSW RHI 95 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 65 E OSC LAN MVN MKL JAN 70 SW HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF COASTAL AREAS.... DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AS THE TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION...MODELS INDICATE UPSTREAM PATTERN ...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S... WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH HAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC REGIME...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES NOW PROGRESSING INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN AMPLIFYING/ DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF COLDER LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO SEEMS MOST LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST NAM RUN IS NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH GFS...INDICATING SHORT WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS... LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS IS FINALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN EARLY MONDAY...AND MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AT LEAST LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY MONDAY. EVOLUTION INTO PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW ...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST WITH CONVECTION INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES... FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE IN COVERAGE. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY...BUT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 10/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 30 17:36:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 30 Oct 2005 12:36:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510301736.j9UHante019123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301735 SWODY2 SPC AC 301734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST SUN OCT 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CRP 10 SSW NIR 35 NW COT 20 N DRT 35 SSW ABI 45 W SPS 20 S MLC 10 WNW DEQ IER 50 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 35 ENE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW 6R6 45 N BGS 20 NNW PVW 45 ENE BGD 35 E CNU 25 SE BRL 25 NE MLI 15 SW DBQ 25 WSW ALO 10 ESE OTG 30 NNE RWF 15 S BFW 30 ESE CMX 30 N APN 25 SSE OSC 45 SSW JXN 25 SSE MVN 60 ENE PBF 45 NNE HEZ 50 SE BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND INTO DAY TWO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO OK/W TX. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN 2/3 OF TX... THOUGH COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT FROM OK/AR NEWD. FURTHER S INTO TX...RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCESSIVELY STRONG...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SPREADING EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF TX -- MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS AIRMASS SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 06:24:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 01:24:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510310624.j9V6OCfl013681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310622 SWODY2 SPC AC 310621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 55 SE OLM EUG 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S LCH HEZ JAN MEI TOI ABY 40 E CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW AFTER IT REACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER/MORE PROMINENT BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHERN STREAM...ACCELERATES MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ITS WAKE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. ...GULF COAST... PERSISTENT COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...AND WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW. ...FLORIDA... PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...NOW SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES LOCALLY ENHANCED. THOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IN WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. ..KERR.. 10/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 31 17:24:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 12:24:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200510311724.j9VHORcQ011098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311722 SWODY2 SPC AC 311721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 10 W OLM 45 NW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AAF 40 ESE SSI ...CONT... 65 SSE 7R4 30 S HEZ 40 SSW JAN 20 SE PIB 45 SSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF COAST/FL PENINSULA... SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE LA COAST AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. A VERY FOCUSED WIND SHIFT AND SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH DAY1 INTO THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. NRN PORTIONS OF TSTM LINE SEGMENT WILL TRANSLATE OFF THE LA/MS COAST EARLY WITH INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM...LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN FL PENINSULA TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTEN/WEAKEN PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...SPREADING NWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...PACIFIC NW... POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WA COAST. IT APPEARS STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HOLDING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.