[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261731
SWODY2
SPC AC 261729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
GMJ 35 S OJC STJ 30 ESE OMA 15 S FOD 10 ENE DBQ 20 SW CGX 20 SE HUF
20 NNW HOP 30 N TUP 35 SSE GWO 20 WNW HEZ 30 NNW ESF 25 S TXK 35 S
RKR 20 SW GMJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LBX 35 WNW BPT
35 NNW GGG 30 E DUA 30 SE CQB PNC 35 SSW BIE 10 ENE OLU 35 S MHE 25
WNW BKX 15 WNW BRD 20 N CMX 30 NNE PLN MBS 25 ESE MIE 20 SSW BWG 15
ENE MSL 15 NE SEM 50 SSE AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS...OZARKS...MID/LWR MS VLYS...

...ERN PLAINS TO THE MID-LWR MS VLY...
POWERFUL UPPER JET /120+KT H25 JET AT KOAK/ WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE
CA/GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.  STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS
KS.  THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD NEAR/N OF KANSAS CITY
BY 00Z MON...THEN INTO NCNTRL IA BY 12Z MON.  THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL SURGE NWD AND REACH AT LEAST CNTRL IA-CNTRL IL LINE BY
SUNDAY EVENING WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
ERN TX TOWARD THE MS RVR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THE LOW/ COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY LATE
SUNDAY AFTN INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY
TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY CAUSE A RELAXATION OF THE RETURN FLOW. 
AS PRESSURES FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE FLOW WILL
TEND TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SLY EARLY SUNDAY.  AS A
RESULT...MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD THROUGH THE ERN
PLAINS AND MS VLY.  THIS RAPID MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...
LIMITING HEATING.  NONETHELESS...MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
500-1000 J/KG FROM EXTREME SRN IA TO AR BY LATE AFTN.

INITIAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
ERN KS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE OZARKS SWD INTO CNTRL AR AS THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR.  THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP/EVOLVE NNEWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
LOW INTO CNTRL/NCNTRL IA BY 12Z MON.  FARTHER E...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO IL...FAR W KY...WRN TN...NWRN MS BY EARLY
MONDAY.

PRESENCE OF 100+ KT SWLY H5 JET ATOP A 60+ KT SLY H85 JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS.  2-6KM SHEAR
VECTORS EXHIBIT ENOUGH OF A PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARIES THAT DISCRETE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
BUT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...STORM
MODE SHOULD MAINLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OZARKS WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY.  THERE WILL BE A SEPARATE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS IA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHERE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 11/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM