[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 170609
SWODY2
SPC AC 170608

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CONUS THROUGH
PERIOD.  FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS SERN CONUS...AS STRONGLY
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD
ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY.  INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT
NOW MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...AND SEWD THROUGH FL
PENINSULA...WILL RENDER AIR MASS TOO DRY/STABLE FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS.  POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS
SRN FL WHERE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY MAY STALL DAY-1 INTO DAY-2.

...SRN FL/KEYS...
REMAINS OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SRN
FL OR FL STRAITS...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE MIDLEVEL LAYER EVIDENT IN
VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND
WARM-CLOUD IN CHARACTER.  LATEST OPERATIONAL ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS -- AND MORE SO THAN MOST SREF MEMBERS --
IN OVERCOMING MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER AND GENERATING DEEP CAPE. 
ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM TO ASSIGN GEN TSTM RISK
AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.