From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 06:17:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 01:17:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511010617.jA16HQkU014819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010615 SWODY2 SPC AC 010613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 50 E DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BNO SMN BZN 10 NNW COD RIW 35 SSW BPI 10 ENE U31 15 ENE RBL 30 WSW LMT BNO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES COMPRISING THIS FEATURE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN STATES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...AS SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN. BOTH LATEST GFS AND NAM SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...LIKELY ADVANCING INTO AND ACROSS SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY ON TRAIL OF NORTH STREAM TROUGH. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY MAY BE OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... MODELS SUGGEST WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL BE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE FRONT ALREADY BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN TROUGH ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. IT NOW APPEARS ANY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED OR MINOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES...AND APPARENT LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE LOW... PROBABILITIES SEEM TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY WILL ALREADY BE ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES/NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 17:09:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:09:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511011709.jA1H9KMR000303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011704 SWODY2 SPC AC 011703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S EYW 50 E DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LMT 45 SSE BKE 30 SSW DLN 35 N JAC 50 NE EVW 25 E DPG 50 SSE NFL 35 NNW SAC 40 NW RBL 20 ENE LMT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... WLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD AND WEAKENING. DEEPER CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE BUT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...THEN ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...INTERIOR WEST... DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN IT APPEARS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WILL MOISTEN PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK UPDRAFTS MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...SHORT-LIVED AND SPARSE AT BEST. UPSTREAM...SHALLOW CONVECTION OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST MAY GENERATE LIGHTNING LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY3 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 06:15:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 01:15:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511020616.jA26G3hU029816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020613 SWODY2 SPC AC 020612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 25 NE PDX 50 SSE EUG 15 WSW 4BK 35 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SNY 10 NNW CDR 55 NW VTN 40 NW ONL OFK LNK 35 N CNK 30 SE MCK 40 SSE IML SNY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S...AS INTENSE HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK /NOW TOPPING CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE/ DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING THROUGH CREST OF BROADER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. IMPULSE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH...BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING DEEPER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR WESTERLIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE RIDGE NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE GULF STATES /IN WAKE OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE/ IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS IN WEAK BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THUS... WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY MODIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STEEP BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. DESPITE VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH- LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO SWEEP INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. ..KERR.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 16:46:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:46:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511021646.jA2Gk6QM023384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021632 SWODY2 SPC AC 021631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BLI 10 N PDX 30 S EUG 45 WNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN WY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 04/12Z. MEANWHILE TO THE W...STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND/OR AS OROGRAPHIC ASCENT BECOMES ENHANCED WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE FRONT. ..MEAD.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 05:51:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 00:51:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511030551.jA35ptol003694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030544 SWODY2 SPC AC 030543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 35 WNW DLS 60 SE EUG 40 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW ERI DUJ LBE HTS DYR ARG 40 SSW TBN JEF SPI 20 SSE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...NOW DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MAY BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING A BIT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IN RESPONSE TO REMNANTS OF INTENSE PACIFIC JET DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGGED TO LIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY TODAY...IS FORECAST INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING/BECOMING SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST OF RETREATING SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN VEERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS FEATURE INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION IN UPPER FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE RAPID RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER. ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED...BUT IT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES ENHANCED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE WEAK FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET CORE IS PROGGED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE CASCADES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /500 MB TEMPS AOB -30C/...AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM. ..KERR.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 17:00:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 12:00:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511031700.jA3H0eAT016697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031632 SWODY2 SPC AC 031631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TOL 20 NNE CLE 30 S YNG 20 SSE HLG 40 NNW JKL 20 W HOP 20 NW POF 10 E VIH 45 NW ALN 30 WNW DNV 20 W TOL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC...MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN WWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ...OH VALLEY... 03/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY INDICATED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS WARM AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AMBIENT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS SWLY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF PERSISTENT WAA/DEEPER-LAYER CONVERGENCE WHERE NRN EXTENSION OF SWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. ..MEAD.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 05:59:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 00:59:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511040559.jA45xiIY010150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040557 SWODY2 SPC AC 040556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CSV 35 ENE MEM 30 SW RUE 25 SSE GMJ 20 SW SZL 40 WSW VPZ 20 N TOL 25 SE MFD 35 SW HTS 30 NNW CSV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ROC 40 E BGM 20 E ABE 40 SW DCA 55 N HKY 50 ENE RMG 35 ENE 0A8 30 NW MEI 35 NNE MLU DEQ 15 S TUL 15 W OJC 10 SW OLU 20 SW FSD 25 NNW MKT LSE 20 SSE LNR 15 SE RAC 30 NE GRR 15 E BAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH SATURDAY. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR DAY 2 IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN EVOLVING UPPER JET STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR N AS THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH COOLING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND EWD ADVECTION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION...BUT EVOLUTION INTO LINES IS ALSO PROBABLE. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER THE MS VALLEY...SPREADING NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. ..DIAL.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 17:14:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 12:14:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511041714.jA4HEFBK011753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041710 SWODY2 SPC AC 041709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CLE 50 NW HTS 45 ENE BWG 30 SSW DYR 30 NNW LIT 30 WNW HRO 20 WSW COU 25 S MKG 65 E BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 35 NNE MLU DEQ 15 S TUL 25 WNW LWD 25 NNW FOD 20 WNW FRM 25 W MSP 10 SSW EAU 30 NE VOK 15 WNW MTW 20 SSE TVC 65 E APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST/ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK AND THEN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT RAPIDLY DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO LOWER MI SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS....TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE MID MS OH VALLEYS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS... 04/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP /ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER/ ATOP A RETURNING...MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS. PERSISTENT SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE BENEATH THIS STRONG CAP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER 60S S OF FRONTAL ZONE. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN LOWER MI TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER THE MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CAP REMOVAL AND SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...ESPECIALLY INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND FIELDS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVING TO MORE LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY ONGOING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES. ..MEAD.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 05:59:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 00:59:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511050558.jA55wxY1019348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050557 SWODY2 SPC AC 050556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE BML 15 WSW EPM ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 25 WSW BWG 20 S SDF 20 NNW LUK 20 SSW FDY 25 SSW DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 15 NNE ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES... PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 BY EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SLY SURFACE LAYER FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S PROBABLE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH ERN PA AND NY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR COULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...A STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE FORCING AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE DAY. A FORCED LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR E OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NRN VA THROUGH PA AND NY. STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND DAMAGING WIND. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..DIAL.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 17:02:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 12:02:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511051702.jA5H2NrO019449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051700 SWODY2 SPC AC 051659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 35 SSE ISP ...CONT... 50 SE ACY 15 SSE JKL 35 SSW LEX 30 NNE SDF 15 NNE ARB 50 E BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE BML 15 WSW EPM ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 20 SSW OWB 20 E BMG 30 NW FWA 25 NNW RQB 65 NNE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC...NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD...REACHING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI AT 06/12Z WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS ERN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ...UPPER OH VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY... STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWD INTO CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN. INTENSIFYING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL AID IN RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. DESPITE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 7 C/KM AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL NY/PA AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT...STRONG WIND FIELDS /I.E. CLOUD-BEARING...MEAN WINDS OF 55-65 KTS/...SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWS OR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE. ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 06:17:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 01:17:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511060616.jA66Gp96031358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060614 SWODY2 SPC AC 060613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 10 ENE OLM 20 WSW PDX 35 SSW EUG 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E AZO 20 ESE CAK 40 ESE PKB 40 SE HTS 35 WNW JKL 50 SSW HUF 50 S UIN 40 SE OTM 20 ENE CID 10 SE JVL 10 E AZO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI 30 SSW VCT 15 SE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL MONDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SWRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CNTRL PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE NWD RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE FROM PARTS OF MO EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF IL AND EWD INTO IND AND OH. AT THIS TIME THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 17:29:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 12:29:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511061729.jA6HTbU4024857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061727 SWODY2 SPC AC 061726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI 30 SSW VCT 15 SE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 10 ENE OLM 20 WSW PDX 35 SSW EUG 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SBN 25 SSE FDY 25 N UNI 45 NNW TRI 35 NNE CSV 45 ENE PAH 40 NE VIH 30 SE IRK BRL 25 W MMO 35 SE SBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ LIFTS NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PART OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PART OF FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...OH VALLEY... WAA ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ON BACKSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG...AND THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL ATTM TO WARRANT ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...S TX... A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY OWING TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG ANY SMALL-SCALE CONFLUENCE LINES/HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 06:37:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 01:37:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511070637.jA76basD029849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070636 SWODY2 SPC AC 070635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DAY 20 NNE HUF 25 WNW SPI 30 SW BRL 25 SSW CID 30 ENE ALO 25 SSE LSE 35 E VOK 35 SSE MTW 15 E GRR 25 NW TOL 25 WSW FDY 30 WNW DAY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ERI 30 S DUJ 35 E EKN 10 SSE SSU 30 W BLF 10 SSE JKL 40 S SDF 40 WSW OWB 20 ENE POF 25 NNE UNO 45 S SZL 40 SE SDA 35 SSW FOD 30 SSE RWF STC 10 ESE ASX MQT 30 NNE PLN 105 E OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF CUTTING OFF THE SRN BRANCH OF FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE W COAST MONDAY...WHILE ADVANCING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ...ERN PARTS OF MID MS VALLEY GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY... RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW RESIDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. BY LATE TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG ERN PART OF WARM FRONT FROM ERN KY...OH AND WV EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN STRONGER CAP WITH WWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP N OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING FROM NRN PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MID MS VALLEY NEAR TRIPLE POINT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 17:40:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 12:40:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511071739.jA7HdnGT004923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071737 SWODY2 SPC AC 071736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HTS 25 ESE LEX 30 ENE MVN 40 SE UIN 35 WNW BRL 15 WSW LSE 40 W CWA 45 ENE AUW 25 NNW MBL 10 S MBS 10 NNE CAK 25 ESE PKB 30 SE HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 25 WSW RIC 35 ESE DAN 30 NE HKY 40 NE CSV 20 WSW CGI 15 NNW TBN 35 NNE SZL 20 WSW OXV 20 WSW FOD 35 N SUX 30 WNW FSD 15 N VVV 25 N RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION... ...OH/MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WILL PROVE FAVORABLE ALLOWING UNCONTAMINATED TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INLAND...RETURNING NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE THREAT EARLY...WITH TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME AS LLJ MAINTAINS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED UPSTREAM ACROSS IL/SRN MO. NEUTRAL-WEAK UPPER HEIGHT RISES THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER 00Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE SEVERE RISK AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AIDING RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT. LATEST THINKING IS WARM SECTOR INITIATION MAY STRUGGLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/SRN IL SUGGEST WEAK INHIBITION AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DARROW.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 06:23:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 01:23:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511080622.jA86MvUF014082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080620 SWODY2 SPC AC 080618 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 25 WNW ELM 25 SSW IPT 15 SSW MRB 40 W SHD 50 ESE JKL 30 WSW LOZ 40 SSW SDF 30 SSE BMG 20 WSW MIE 40 W TOL 35 SSE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ART 35 NW GFL 20 SSW EEN 20 SSE EWB ...CONT... 15 SSE SBY 25 SE CHA 20 SSW TUP 20 S BVX 15 NNE UNO 25 NE FAM 15 NNE DEC 10 WNW CGX 35 SSW MBL 25 N TVC 35 ESE ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE EWD AND UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC AREA DURING THE DAY. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD AND SHOULD INITIALLY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. A ZONE OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE UPSTREAM PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OH VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY REMOVE ANY REMAINING CAP BY MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 17:42:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 12:42:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511081742.jA8Hg4GT007526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081739 SWODY2 SPC AC 081738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ROC ELM 10 NW POU 45 SSW BID ...CONT... 50 E SBY 10 WNW NHK 35 S PSK CSV CKV 20 SSW OWB 10 SSW SDF DAY FWA 10 E AZO MBS 55 ENE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EFK BML AUG 20 S EPM ...CONT... 30 ENE WAL AHN TCL LLQ HOT FSM POF 15 NNE EVV 40 E IND 35 WSW FWA 20 WNW AZO GRR 35 WNW MBS 70 ENE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW UKI UKI TVL 50 SSW LAS 20 SSW TRM 20 SW RAL 55 S OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW...NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO DIG OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONES WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWARD COLD FRONTAL SURGE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER... RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...ALREADY ONGOING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE. ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY...AS NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE....WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED. A DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AND FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG EXPECTED...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. WITH ONSET OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL COOLING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. A SQUALL LINE COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...SPREADING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 10 17:47:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 12:47:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511101746.jAAHksB5026309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101729 SWODY2 SPC AC 101728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF GDP ALM DMN 15 SE TUS 15 SE PHX LAS ENV JAC WRL 10 WNW VTN 10 SSE ANW EAR HLC 10 ENE GAG 30 ESE PVW 30 S 6R6. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 30 SSE SEA 50 WNW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... VIGOROUS JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS NORTHERN TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL STATES INTO THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...PLAINS... SURFACE RIDGING OVER WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...AND A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW. ...FOUR CORNERS STATES... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW. DESTABILIZATION/THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE NEAR MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY NEAR THE OLYMPICS AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES. ..KERR.. 11/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 06:45:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 01:45:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511110645.jAB6jIY2029192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110643 SWODY2 SPC AC 110642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEP 40 NW MWL SPS FSI END ICT MHK FOD MCW 45 SW LSE 30 SSE LNR RFD MMO BMI BLV FAM IER LFK ACT SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRP ALI COT 55 NNE DRT 45 E BGS 25 ENE GAG 45 W P28 DDC 35 NNW GCK GLD IML LBF BUB YKN AXN INL ...CONT... 40 WNW ERI 50 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ROX 50 WNW JMS Y22 2WX 4BQ BIL 3HT GTF CTB 45 NNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS N-CENTRAL/NE TX TO PORTIONS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST ALOFT THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA CHANNEL ISLANDS. 11/00Z SPECTRAL/ETA AND 10/21Z SREF MEAN APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM BEST...WITH NGM AS OUTLIER. BY 13/00Z...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI AND IA SWWD ACROSS W TX. FASTER/STRONGER SPECTRAL PROGS FOR UPSTREAM TROUGH -- NOW OVER DATA SPARSE NERN PACIFIC WATERS -- RESULT IN MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND TIGHTER GRADIENTS ALOFT FOR NRN PORTION OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH..AND THEREFORE...MUCH DEEPER SFC CYCLONE THAN ETA. SREF SOLUTIONS RUN THE FULL RANGE BETWEEN BOTH POSSIBILITIES. THEREFORE...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN PROGS BY MIDDLE OF PERIOD WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF SFC COLD FRONT. IN EITHER EVENT...EXPECT FRONT TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH DAY-2. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND/OR STALL SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX. ...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS -- SOME SEVERE -- ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT -- FIRST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...BECOMING MORE CONDITIONAL AND LATER IN AFTERNOON-EVENING FARTHER S TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN TX. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE SHIFTS EWD THROUGH ARKLATEX. SFC ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA INDICATE BROAD PLUME OF UPPER 60S TO 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AT ROOT OF SHALLOW TO MODERATELY DEEP MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS GULF. LOW LEVEL FRONT IS MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN GULF ATTM AND ASSOCIATED RETURN-FLOW GEOMETRY WILL RESULT IN NARROW PLUME OF FAVORABLY MODIFIED AIR MOVING NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK THROUGH EARLY-MIDDLE OF PERIOD. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 50S OVER UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID 60S CENTRAL TX. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...MOIST ADVECTION AND NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD OVERCOME CINH SOONER ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THAN FARTHER S...WHERE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE WARMER. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY -- BUT ALSO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING BOW ECHOES AND/OR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY ORIENTATION SHOULD BE LINEAR BUT STORM MODAL DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL THIS SOON. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND TIGHT DEEP-LAYER FLOW GRADIENTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY ESPECIALLY WITH OPTIMALLY VIGOROUS SPECTRAL FCST. ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY EXTEND FARTHER N THAN PRESENT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...HOWEVER VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT PRECIP IN PROGS PRECLUDE MORE THAN MARGINAL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM OVER MOST OF MN/WI. CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN PROGS OF DEEPENING/POSITION OF SFC CYCLONE -- AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COLD FRONT POSITION FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS -- RESULTS IN BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT WITH NEARLY UNIFORM PROBABILITIES ATTM. PRIND MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS SWATH AND THAT LARGER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS FOR THIS EVENT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 17:32:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 12:32:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511111731.jABHVx0F016926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111730 SWODY2 SPC AC 111729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEP 20 WNW MWL 30 E SPS 30 NNW PNC 40 NNW MHK 15 NW DNS MCW 45 SW LSE 30 SSE LNR RFD MMO BMI BLV 30 NNW POF IER LFK ACT SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP ALI 70 W COT 10 S DRT 45 E BGS 25 ENE GAG 45 W P28 DDC 35 NNW GCK GLD IML LBF BUB YKN AXN 25 NNE INL ...CONT... 40 WNW ERI 50 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROX 50 WNW JMS Y22 2WX 4BQ BIL 3HT GTF CTB 45 NNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NE TX TO PORTIONS OF LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS FOR A SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN TROUGH. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD REACHING IA TO WRN WI BY 13/00Z...AND THEN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP E/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS... REACHING EAST CENTRAL MN SWWD ACROSS WRN IA TO ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/ TX BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MODIFIED RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME ACROSS TX INTO OK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NOW INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN TX. SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SWRN STATES TROUGH. THIS LLJ SHOULD GENERALLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NRN MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA BY 13/00Z. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ENEWD ATOP A RATHER NARROW PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO ERN OK/KS TO WRN MO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...EXCEPT FOR THE AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES STATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SW WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 21-00Z AND EXTEND SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AND ERN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NERN TX WILL SPREAD E/SEWD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..PETERS.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 06:41:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 01:41:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511120640.jAC6ebQM027608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120637 SWODY2 SPC AC 120636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BUF JHW PIT CRW CHA 0A8 ASD 7R4 50 SE BPT ...CONT... DRT HDO 40 NW AUS SEP MWL CQB TUL FYV RUE LIT 60 W MEM 30 SE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CONUS PORTION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER CENTRAL STATES AND PORTIONS GREAT LAKES REGION...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES REINFORCE BUILDING MEAN TROUGH. FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER SWRN CO -- SHOULD CROSS PLAINS STATES THROUGH DAY-1...PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND PACIFIC NW. RESULTING MID/UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD EJECT FROM MN NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT THIS PERIOD. TRAILING LOW-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AT SFC...DEEP/OCCLUDED CYCLONE INITIALLY INVOF MN ARROWHEAD IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY REGION AND FILL...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD OVER OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL TX...MS AND AL. FRONT MAY RETREAT NWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF N TX AND SRN OK LATE IN PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO APCHG NRN PLAINS SYSTEM. ...LOWER MS VALLEY...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY. SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WITH TIME FROM LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY2 PERIOD...CONTINUING THAT TREND DISCUSSED IN LATEST SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. INITIALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR BOWS...BUT WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH TIME THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN DURING DAY -- ALONG AND S OF SFC FRONT. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS MAY SHIFT/SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ARKLATEX INTO ERN OK AFTER DARK...AS ELEVATED REGIME OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ABOVE SFC. GEN TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT IN THIS REGIME BECAUSE OF DECREASING BUOYANCY...BOTH SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED. ALSO TSTM RISK WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT THROUGH OH VALLEY TOWARD CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE WARM SECTOR INFLOW INTO FRONT/CONVERGENCE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 17:20:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 12:20:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511121719.jACHJbfM000901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121716 SWODY2 SPC AC 121715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 65 SSE BWD SEP MWL CQB TUL FYV RUE 15 NW LIT 10 SW JBR 30 SE DTW ...CONT... 25 WSW BUF JHW PIT CRW 35 NNE TYS 30 SSE RMG 50 WNW GZH ASD 35 E 7R4 60 SW 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION NEWD TO QUEBEC/NERN STATES...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS... REACHING NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO LA AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH 14/00Z...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO W GULF COASTAL PLAIN... THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND NERN TX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD SHOULD STILL BE ACTIVE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX NEWD TO WRN KY AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE ACTIVITY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF TN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD PROVIDE WEAKER UVVS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY FOCI FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR MESOSCALE BOUNDARY....ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ENEWD TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MS. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THUS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NNEWD SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO ERN OK/PARTS OF AR...AS ELEVATED REGIME OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE. ..PETERS.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 06:41:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 01:41:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511130641.jAD6fDPJ013550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130638 SWODY2 SPC AC 130637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV SLO 40 N EVV 25 E OWB BWG 40 S CKV ELD GGG TYR DAL GYI FYV BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BUF BUF BFD DUJ LBE JKL LOZ MSL 40 N ESF 40 S LFK SAT JCT BWD ADM JLN 45 SSE IRK 40 SE OTM OTM OXV FNB MHK HUT DDC GCK ITR TOR 85 E LWT GGW OLF SDY DIK PIR 9V9 YKN 40 SSE FSD EAU AUW MTW RQB 45 E BAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN TX TO SWRN INDIANA... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM GULF OF AK ACROSS AK PANHANDLE INTO NWRN BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES DAY-1 AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW DAY-2. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE FROM SERN ALTA/SWRN SASK SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO INVOF MN/IA BORDER DURING PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC SCENARIO...AND ON ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING OF THERMAL/ISOHYPSIC GRADIENTS FROM S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND MO...AND SWD ACROSS OK -- SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN PERIOD...TRAILING SWWD AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS TO ARKLATEX REGION AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE INVOF NERN TX. AMIDST RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG NRN STREAM LOW -- FRONT SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS ERN OK...AR...WRN TN AND SERN MO AS WARM FRONT DURING PERIOD. ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND RICHER IN WARM SECTOR THETAE -- AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN SFC ANALYSIS OF MID/UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS NOW OVER E TX. INITIAL/PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATE DAY-1 ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AND SHIFT SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO MN -- AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND INTERSECT RETREATING WARM FRONT INVOF CENTRAL/ERN NEB BY 15/00Z...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF POST-DRYLINE AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR AIR SHUNTED FARTHER SE OVER OUTLOOK AREA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT...ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLY MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT FROM MO TO SERN OK. ...ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER OH VALLEY... TWO PRIMARY REGIMES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. FIRST AND POTENTIALLY MOST SERIOUS WILL BE WITH RETURN FLOW AIR MASS AND INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS AR...PERHAPS ALSO WRN TN AND SERN MO DURING AFTERNOON. SEASONALLY STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG IN MODIFIED ETA/ETA-BKF SOUNDINGS. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVE SFC BACKING NEAR WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. MOIST NEAR-SFC AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. MAIN CONCERNS ATTM ARE NWD EXTENT OF RETURN FLOW -- WHICH VARIES CONSIDERABLY IN SREF MEMBERS -- AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR GENERATING TSTMS. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE IN PERIOD FROM LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX...AMIDST STRONG PREFRONTAL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS TX AS CAP STRENGTHENS...AND NEWD EXTENT OVER OH VALLEY REGION AS BUOYANCY BECOMES WEAKER/MORE ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 17:49:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 12:49:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511131749.jADHnH7b008798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131746 SWODY2 SPC AC 131745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N JLN 40 NW FAM 25 SSE MVN 25 ESE PAH 20 N UOX 45 NW JAN 10 WNW MLU GGG TYR DAL GYI 20 ENE TUL 60 N JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 35 NNW BPT 45 S LFK SAT JCT 25 WNW SEP 35 NW ADM 30 NNE PNC 25 N P28 GCK 35 NE LAA 25 W EGE 40 S EVW 10 WNW WEY GGW 15 SE SDY 20 SE DIK PIR 10 SSE 9V9 35 ENE ONL 30 W SDA LWD 30 SSW DBQ 30 ENE JVL 15 SSE MKG 40 E BAX ...CONT... 45 NW BUF 10 SSE BUF 25 NNE PSK 35 ESE RWI FAY 25 NNE AHN 15 NW BHM 30 NW MEI 30 NE MCB 35 SSE BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION/ERN OK NEWD TO SRN MO/AR... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SEWD FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN PARTS OF SD/NEB BY 12Z TUESDAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WWD AND CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA UNTIL AFTER 15/00Z. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES BY 15/00Z. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS LOW TRACKING SEWD INTO WRN OK BY 15/06Z...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TO CENTRAL MO BY 15/12Z AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AMPLIFIES. A COUPLE OF GENERALLY E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A PRIMARY WARM FRONT RETREATING SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...GIVEN INITIALLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THIS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NWD MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MO TO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NERN TX/NRN LA/ERN OK/AR/FAR SERN KS/SRN MO/SRN IL AND WRN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND AR WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AS SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD. DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE WARM SECTOR AND RETREATING WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN OK/SRN AR SWD INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY INTENSITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ERN OK/SERN KS INTO SRN MO TO NERN TX...AND MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY NWD WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM TX INTO ERN KS/MO/SRN IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO ERN OK COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ..PETERS.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 07:14:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:14:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511140713.jAE7Dwfp002487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140705 SWODY2 SPC AC 140704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RUE SLO HUF IND 40 WSW DAY LUK LEX TCL MEI JAN LLQ RUE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT GLS 55 SSW CLL TPL ACT 30 SSE MLC SGF VIH STL DEC CGX GRR FNT MTC CLE CAK PKB CRW TRI HSS ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC SYR BGM CXY 35 W DCA RIC 40 SSW ECG 15 SSE EWN ILM CRE 45 SE AGS MCN DHN 55 WSW PFN ...CONT... 70 W COT 30 NNW DAL 45 S CQB TUL 60 NNE JLN MKC BIE GRI 25 E ONL FSD RWF MSP EAU AUW 45 NNW TVC 55 E APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...CENTRAL/ERN AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/NRN AL...CENTRAL/WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN OH... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO PACIFIC NW AND BC THROUGH PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ROCKIES OF BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER IA BY AROUND 16/00Z. BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WILL SHIFT/AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS TX AND SEWD TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY OVER SRN SASK/NERN MT WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS DAY-1...AND ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NE TX SWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO JUST W DRT -- MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BY START OF PERIOD AND WILL ACT AS SWRN BOUND FOR TSTMS BACKBUILDING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CYCLONE ON OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN OZARKS REGION AT 15/12Z TOWARD SRN LM AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING DAY...ITSELF OCCLUDING INVOF ERN LOWER MI BY 16/12Z. CURRENT FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM MID TN SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG WARM FRONT FROM LATE DAY-1 THROUGH DAY-2 PERIODS...E OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. ...E TX TO LOWER MI AND GA/AL... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH NUMEROUS TOTAL REPORTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO...BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS EXPECTED ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...SOME SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE WIND AND/OR TORNADO EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERLAP OF LARGEST PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE AREA REPRESENTS AREA WHERE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND AS WARM FRONT RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN RICH MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN 14/00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND DRT...06Z SFC ANALYSIS AND LATEST GPS PW DATA. PLUMES OF SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F NOW ARE ANALYZED INLAND -- AND 70S OVER MOST OF OPEN WRN GULF. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY LATE DAY-1 INTO DAY-2 AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER MS DELTA REGION TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG N OF OH RIVER. HOWEVER...INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH WINDS ABOVE 50 KT JUST OFF SFC AND UPWARD THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. LARGE/LONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PRESENCE OF SBCAPE AND STRENGTH OF FLOW INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND OVER BROAD SWATH FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INDIANA/OH...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS LOWER MI. ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE -- HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DISCRETE AND FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUCH TSTMS TO DEVELOP. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD WEAKEN DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO MID TN AND PORTIONS GA/AL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 07:21:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:21:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511140720.jAE7KRRV004242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140712 SWODY2 SPC AC 140711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RUE SLO HUF IND 40 WSW DAY LUK LEX TCL MEI JAN LLQ RUE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT GLS 55 SSW CLL TPL ACT 30 SSE MLC SGF VIH STL DEC CGX GRR FNT MTC CLE CAK PKB CRW TRI HSS ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC SYR BGM CXY 35 W DCA RIC 40 SSW ECG 15 SSE EWN ILM CRE 45 SE AGS MCN DHN 55 WSW PFN ...CONT... 70 W COT 30 NNW DAL 45 S CQB TUL 60 NNE JLN MKC BIE GRI 25 E ONL FSD RWF MSP EAU AUW 45 NNW TVC 55 E APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...CENTRAL/ERN AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/NRN AL...CENTRAL/WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN LOWER MI... CORRECTED FOR TRANSPOSED HEADLINES ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO PACIFIC NW AND BC THROUGH PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ROCKIES OF BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER IA BY AROUND 16/00Z. BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WILL SHIFT/AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS TX AND SEWD TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY OVER SRN SASK/NERN MT WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS DAY-1...AND ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NE TX SWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO JUST W DRT -- MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BY START OF PERIOD AND WILL ACT AS SWRN BOUND FOR TSTMS BACKBUILDING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CYCLONE ON OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN OZARKS REGION AT 15/12Z TOWARD SRN LM AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING DAY...ITSELF OCCLUDING INVOF ERN LOWER MI BY 16/12Z. CURRENT FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM MID TN SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG WARM FRONT FROM LATE DAY-1 THROUGH DAY-2 PERIODS...E OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. ...E TX TO LOWER MI AND GA/AL... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH NUMEROUS TOTAL REPORTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO...BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS EXPECTED ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...SOME SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE WIND AND/OR TORNADO EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERLAP OF LARGEST PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE AREA REPRESENTS AREA WHERE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND AS WARM FRONT RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN RICH MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN 14/00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND DRT...06Z SFC ANALYSIS AND LATEST GPS PW DATA. PLUMES OF SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F NOW ARE ANALYZED INLAND -- AND 70S OVER MOST OF OPEN WRN GULF. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY LATE DAY-1 INTO DAY-2 AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER MS DELTA REGION TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG N OF OH RIVER. HOWEVER...INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH WINDS ABOVE 50 KT JUST OFF SFC AND UPWARD THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. LARGE/LONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PRESENCE OF SBCAPE AND STRENGTH OF FLOW INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND OVER BROAD SWATH FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INDIANA/OH...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS LOWER MI. ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE -- HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DISCRETE AND FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUCH TSTMS TO DEVELOP. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD WEAKEN DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO MID TN AND PORTIONS GA/AL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 17:35:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 12:35:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511141734.jAEHYup1003753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW FAM 20 NNE DEC 25 N DNV 25 ENE LAF 15 WSW MIE 25 WSW LUK 25 SW LEX 25 NW CSV 40 E HSV 20 WSW BHM 35 NNE MEI 25 NNW JAN 35 NNE MLU 40 N ELD 15 SSE RUE 35 NNW FAM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 20 W GLS 55 SSW CLL 20 SSE TPL 25 SSW DAL 35 SSE MKO SGF 25 ENE JEF 35 WNW SPI 25 SSW MMO CGX GRR FNT MTC 45 N CLE CAK 10 NNW PKB 10 W CRW 20 NNE TRI 45 WSW AVL ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC 35 WNW ELM 45 N UNV 30 E AOO 30 WNW DCA 10 ENE RIC 15 W ECG 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 N CRE 10 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 10 WNW AAF ...CONT... 70 W COT 25 ESE BWD 15 NNW ADM 35 W TUL 25 SSE EMP 30 NNW TOP 20 WNW SDA 10 SW DNS 35 E SPW 10 N RST 30 W CWA 50 SSE IMT 30 N TVC 55 E APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH PARTS OF THE SERN U.S...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS A STRONG JET STREAK DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER NE OK BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD WITHIN ZONE OF AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFT NEWD...THE WARM FRONT NOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT TAILING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY REACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH SRN GREAT LAKES... RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW RESIDING FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS SRN IL AND SRN IND. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY LARGE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 800 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO AOA 60 KT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN SPREADING NEWD DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES CONTAINING LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 07:09:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 02:09:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511150708.jAF78fws004275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150702 SWODY2 SPC AC 150701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HSE OAJ FLO CAE SPA HKY SHD MRB IPT ITH SYR 45 SW SLK 40 NW RUT RUT EEN GON 35 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW BVE MOB SEM CHA JKL UNI ZZV 45 N CLE ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 35 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND TO NRN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY TOWARD DEEP CENTRAL/ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC TROUGH. MAIN FEATURE INVOLVED IN THIS TRANSITION IS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ND. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD SRN HUDSON/JAMES BAYS DURING DAY-3...LEAVING HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS MS VALLEY. WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE DEEPLY OCCLUDES AND SIMILARLY EJECTS NEWD...INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM APPALACHIANS ACROSS ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND OFFSHORE. ...MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID MORNING...MOVE EWD ACROSS DE/HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS AND ADJACENT AREAS...AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY SHOULD INGEST PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...MOIST...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIR AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS PA/NY/NRN DELMARVA REGION. INFLOW LAYER ALSO SHOULD DEEPEN AS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES FROM PA/NY HIGHLANDS INTO LOWER TERRAIN NEAR COAST. NEUTRALLY TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BAND UNTIL ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INGEST MORE STABLE MARINE AIR IN CENTRAL/ERN NEW ENGLAND. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM -- ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENCE OF 50-70 KT FLOW BEGINNING A KM OR LESS ABOVE SFC ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION -- WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS DESPITE WEAKNESS OF CAPE. TORNADO RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL -- OWING TO CONCERNS OVER CONVECTIVE MODE AND BUOYANCY. ...VA/CAROLINAS... FARTHER S ACROSS POTOMAC VALLEY REGION INTO ERN VA AND CAROLINAS...EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SFC HEATING. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG -- SUPPORTED BY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DIURNALLY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CAROLINAS ACROSS GA AND NRN FL. THIS WILL RAMP DOWN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH SWD EXTENT. ...EARLY-MIDMORNING...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN... PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS AL/GA EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS WILL REPRESENT A CONTINUATION OF LATE DAY-1 REGIME OVER AL/GA...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE TREND WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL....THOUGH FCST SOUNDINGS IN MOST MOIST/UNSTABLE SCENARIOS SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 16:58:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 11:58:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511151657.jAFGvEpD002090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151651 SWODY2 SPC AC 151650 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HSE OAJ 40 WSW CRE CAE SPA HKY 40 NE SSU 45 W EKN 40 NNW JHW ART 50 NE UCA 20 ESE GFL 30 ENE PSF 15 ESE BDL 35 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GPT MGM 50 ESE CHA 45 NNW TRI 20 E UNI ZZV 45 N CLE ...CONT... 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/SWRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...AS A 120 KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTS NWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN SRN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND CONTINUE LIFTING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NWD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...PA/NY/NRN VA AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG GRADIENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND FAST MOTION OF LINE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES LESS THAN 200 J/KG SUGGEST THE WIND THREAT MAY BE LOW. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA/NY AND ERN WV WHERE VERY STRONG FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. AS THUNDERSTORM LINE/FRONT MOVES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN PA/SRN NY SWD INTO VA. THE WIND THREAT WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIR. ...SRN VA AND CAROLINAS... THE FORCING AND WIND FIELDS...AND CONSEQUENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN ACROSS PA/NY. HOWEVER... 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF DISCRETE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST 1 KM SRH FROM 200-250 M2/S2 MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINEAR SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS FRONT/STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE. ...SERN AL EWD ACROSS GA AND NRN FL... BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AR...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFTED PARCELS BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:54:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:54:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511160553.jAG5riJx025239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160549 SWODY2 SPC AC 160548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND RIDGE INVOF PACIFIC COAST ...WILL CHARACTERIZE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD. INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW SWEEPING EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS AND SEWD INTO NWRN GULF -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD THROUGH PENINSULAR FL BY ABOUT 18/00Z. AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT FLOW TO SHIFT TO ELY/ENELY IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY 17/12Z. MEANWHILE...IN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...RELATIVELY STABLE MIDLEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER FL. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND KEEP CAPE CONFINED TO LAYERS BELOW THOSE NEEDED FOR OPTIMAL ICE FORMATION AND CHARGE SEPARATION. THERFORE...TSTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW FOR OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 17:21:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 12:21:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511161720.jAGHKXqS001852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161708 SWODY2 SPC AC 161707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION...DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ..DIAL.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 06:12:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 01:12:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511170611.jAH6Bqtn003068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170609 SWODY2 SPC AC 170608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS SERN CONUS...AS STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...AND SEWD THROUGH FL PENINSULA...WILL RENDER AIR MASS TOO DRY/STABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SRN FL WHERE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY MAY STALL DAY-1 INTO DAY-2. ...SRN FL/KEYS... REMAINS OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SRN FL OR FL STRAITS...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE MIDLEVEL LAYER EVIDENT IN VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND WARM-CLOUD IN CHARACTER. LATEST OPERATIONAL ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS -- AND MORE SO THAN MOST SREF MEMBERS -- IN OVERCOMING MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER AND GENERATING DEEP CAPE. ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM TO ASSIGN GEN TSTM RISK AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 17:03:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 12:03:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511171702.jAHH2kxR002505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171657 SWODY2 SPC AC 171656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN US WILL BE REINFORCED AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN US WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST. LOW-LEVEL NLY FLOW IN THE SRN AND ERN US WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION OFF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 06:18:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 01:18:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511180617.jAI6HboJ027023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180615 SWODY2 SPC AC 180614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO WRN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD AND STABLE AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE TSTM PROSPECTS MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS REMAIN HIGH. A THUNDER AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED IN THIS OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME BUT SOME MARGINAL POTENTIAL MAY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. ..CARBIN.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 17:29:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 12:29:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511181728.jAIHSHHo028976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181725 SWODY2 SPC AC 181724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 25 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY AMPLIFY REACHING THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN SRN FL MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 06:03:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 01:03:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511190602.jAJ62ZXC020836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190601 SWODY2 SPC AC 190600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE MOB 30 N TLH 50 ENE ABY 20 N VDI 10 NNE CHS 30 SSE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION BEGINS TO ENSUE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND ASCENT BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ARE FCST TO INTENSIFY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENEWD TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EVENTUALLY...ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN/NERN GULF AND PROBABLY TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN FL WHILE CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF T.S. GAMMA FCST TO BE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES A TREND ESTABLISHED IN PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATING A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST NAM...NCEP SREF MEAN...AND NOGAPS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW...OVER FL BY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD/EARLY MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IN PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NERN GULF/NRN FL AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING AMPLITUDE/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LATER HALF OF THIS OUTLOOK. ...SOUTHEAST/FL... BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF AND FL. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO LOWER STATIC STABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK/LIMITED OVER MUCH OF FL AND THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STRONGER TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW/UNCERTAIN FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. ..CARBIN.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 17:16:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 12:16:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511191715.jAJHF77G010422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191712 SWODY2 SPC AC 191711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 20 W GNV 15 WSW JAX 20 NW SSI 35 ENE SAV 55 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL US WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN UPPER-LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND A WARM FRONT WILL ORGANIZE IN SRN FL AND LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM TROPICAL STORM GAMA MAY IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION SOME OVER FL. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 06:27:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 01:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511200625.jAK6PtfK026200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200623 SWODY2 SPC AC 200622 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW CTY 35 SE VLD 35 NE SSI 45 SE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN 30 SW MCN 35 ESE AND 35 ENE RZZ 30 SE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WILL PROMOTE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM AND DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT/COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO APPALACHEE BAY FL BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE/REDEVELOP TO NEAR CHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROM THERE THE LOW WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TO A POSITION EAST OF NJ BY 12Z TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...FL... MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD COVER MUCH OF FL BY MONDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF THE DAY IN AREAS BETWEEN THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF FL MAY LIFT INTO SRN GA AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND FROM THE GULF. AS THE LOW SPREADS NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT EVOLVING IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF FL SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/. GUIDANCE FROM NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT EXIST THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH SSWLY 850MB FLOW INCREASING TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM MODE STILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL DURING THE DAY. MOST LIKELY SEVERE TSTM SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50-75KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST. ..CARBIN.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 17:22:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 12:22:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511201721.jAKHLpEm018865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201719 SWODY2 SPC AC 201717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AAF 10 W SSI 30 SSE SAV 25 S CHS 10 NNE CRE 15 WNW ILM 15 E OAJ 40 W HSE 50 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS 20 W ABY 40 NNW VDI CAE 25 W SOP 20 ENE RZZ 35 SSE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...FL PENINSULA AND GA/SC/NC COASTS... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND WARM FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F ALONG THE COAST OF GA...SC AND NC THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS STORMS MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WRN COAST OF FL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z IN THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY SHOW SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1400 J/KG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.60 INCHES COMBINED WITH 70 KT AT 850 MB MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY BE WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN NC. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD OFFSHORE. ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 05:52:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 00:52:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511210551.jAL5pTpD002941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210550 SWODY2 SPC AC 210549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DURING TUESDAY...CENTER OF POWERFUL NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND...ACROSS CAPE COD...TO A POSITION IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EVENING. FROM THERE...THE LOW WILL TRACK NNEWD TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE NOREASTER WILL COVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN A COLD AIR MASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SPORADIC CG LTG MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF MAINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW LTG STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ORGANIZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TSTM CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 17:12:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 12:12:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511211711.jALHBJHi021440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211709 SWODY2 SPC AC 211708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ISP 25 ESE EEN 20 ENE CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. A 980 TO 985 MB SURFACE-LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IS MOVES NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN INTO ERN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH SOME IN-CLOUD AND PERHAPS A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES -- SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD INVOF DEEPENING/NWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW. THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY...NAMKF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS. LIKEWISE...SREF DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST 50% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 50 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND...THUS SUPPORTING THE INCLUSION OF A 10% THUNDER LINE THIS FORECAST. EITHER WAY...AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 05:42:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 00:42:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511220541.jAM5fUnj002023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220539 SWODY2 SPC AC 220538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CRESTS LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW INTERIOR OF CANADA AND RESULTS IN A STRONG JET EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE NCNTRL U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE NERN U.S. WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WITHIN BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. A SRN BRANCH UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE PACIFIC TO A POSITION NEAR SRN CA/BAJA BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN DRY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OCCUR OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF POLAR JET...COUPLED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UNFROZEN LAKES...WILL RESULT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VIGOROUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED TURBULENCE ABOVE THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. SPORADIC CG LTG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW-TOPPED LES BANDS ORIGINATING OVER THE LAKES. HOWEVER...TSTM PERSISTENCE OVER LAND AREAS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LIMITED CHARGE SEPARATION. ..CARBIN.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 17:21:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511221720.jAMHK7Zf021205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221716 SWODY2 SPC AC 221715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A VERY LARGE TROUGH REMAINING OVER ERN CANADA/THE ERN CONUS. THOUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM ERN U.S. TROUGH. WITH GENERALLY STABLE/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF NW FLOW ALOFT...LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER EXISTS. POLAR VORTEX -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE ERN TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS CHANGEABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WITH TIME SHOULD GENERALLY NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY-ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE...AS PASSAGE OF 850/700 MB TROUGHS MAY RESULT IN MORE UNIFORM NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- AND THUS MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT BANDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A THUNDER OUTLOOK. ..GOSS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 05:39:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 00:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511230538.jAN5cLAQ028021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230536 SWODY2 SPC AC 230534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BUF 35 S BUF 20 S JHW 15 ENE YNG 20 NE CAK 20 S CLE 30 N MFD 30 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 20 NE BDR 10 SW PVD 25 ESE BOS 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 20 W ANJ 35 W APN 25 W RQB 30 E SBN 15 WSW SBN 40 NW BEH 50 NE MTW MQT 60 ENE GNA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FEATURE A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...AND A DEEP LARGE SCALE POLAR VORTEX ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF ERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION TO THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...A SRN BRANCH MID LEVEL WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NRN MEXICO. POWERFUL JET MAX WITH 500MB FLOW NEARING 150KT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL RESULT IN 1) CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND...AND 2) SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT IN GENERALLY FAVORED MESOSCALE AREAS DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKES. ...DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR...MICHIGAN...ERIE... LES BANDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND INTENSE DURING THE DAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THIS REGION AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EASES. MEANWHILE...LES EVENT WILL BE ONGOING FROM SUPERIOR SWD. EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 150 J/KG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOVE 700MB AND EL TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -20C. COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE LARGE SCALE...MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LES BANDS SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDER...MOSTLY OVER THE LAKES...BUT OCCASIONALLY WITHIN BANDS EXTENDING ONSHORE. ...SERN NEW ENGLAND... THERMALLY INDIRECT CIRCULATION IN JET EXIT REGION WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ON COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 17:49:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 12:49:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511231748.jANHmH2e000645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231741 SWODY2 SPC AC 231740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 30 W GON 15 S CON 15 W AUG 45 SSE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ART 20 ESE ART 20 ENE SYR 15 NNW ROC 35 NW BUF 30 SE BUF 15 E JHW 30 N YNG 10 NNE CLE 35 NW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW ANJ 20 W ANJ 35 W APN 20 W RQB 30 E SBN 15 WSW SBN 40 NW BEH 50 NE MTW 30 NNW MQT 80 N CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE EMBEDDED POLAR VORTEX ROTATES CYCLONICALLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN QUEBEC THROUGH 25/12Z. MEANWHILE...WRN U.S. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WRN U.S./WRN CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE -- A WEAK TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS IT SHIFTS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT THUNDER OFFSHORE...WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW STRIKES AS FAR W AS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOCATION OF WARM SECTOR. ...GREAT LAKES... VERY COLD /-36 TO -38C/ MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2. WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER...AS POLAR VORTEX MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES. THIS SHOULD ACT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL-ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT BANDS TO SOME DEGREE OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES -- AND LIKEWISE LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING. OVER THE ERN LAKES...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE UNIFORM FROM THE WNW...AS 850 AND 700 MB LOWS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD JUST TO THE N OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. HOWEVER...WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE PLUMES -- ALSO LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. WILL MAINTAIN 10% THUNDER LINE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT IN GENERAL...EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 06:05:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 01:05:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511240604.jAO64StA004825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240602 SWODY2 SPC AC 240600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF 30 SW FST 50 ENE BGS 40 ESE FSI 35 SSE MLC 15 NW TXK SHV 45 SE POE 65 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HQM 30 SE AST 60 ESE OTH 50 E MHS 70 WNW LOL 15 NNW BAM 30 NW ENV 30 NNW DPG 60 SE U24 BCE 40 W SGU 10 E DRA 45 ESE FAT 35 W SAC 25 NNW UKI 70 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MIDWEST AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE LAYER OVER THESE AREAS. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AND EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ACCELERATING NEWD ACROSS SOUTH TX FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ...TX... LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN/NWRN GULF COAST WWD TO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE NRN MEXICO TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RETURN OF GRADUALLY MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. NAM AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF COAST AND SOUTH TX APPEAR TO SUGGEST ONLY A MARGINAL SKIN LAYER OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THESE AREAS BENEATH A MID LEVEL CAP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY...THE FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GUIDANCE OVER THE REGION APPEARS SUSPECT BASED ON LATEST OBS OVER THE GULF AND THIS LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY STRONG FORCING AND THE EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CAP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IF TSTMS CAN TAP POTENTIALLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND WIND WOULD INCREASE GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK. MODEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS APPEAR TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MOVING OVER SOUTH TX AFTER DARK. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 17:49:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 12:49:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511241748.jAOHmL3D003842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241731 SWODY2 SPC AC 241730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 40 ESE LRD 20 W COT 20 W SAT 55 N VCT 20 NE LBX 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF 30 SW FST 50 ENE BGS 40 ESE FSI 35 SSE MLC 20 NW TXK 40 WNW IER 15 SSW POE 35 ESE 7R4 60 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HQM 30 SE AST 60 ESE OTH 50 E MHS 70 WNW LOL 15 NNW BAM 30 NW ENV 30 NNW DPG 60 SE U24 BCE 40 W SGU 10 E DRA 45 ESE FAT 35 W SAC 25 NNW UKI 70 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST... ...CNTRL/SRN TX... UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL BAJA WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TURNS EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TONIGHT/FRI. GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF THIS WAVE. IT DOES APPEAR... HOWEVER...THAT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM/NAMKF IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH SATL TRENDS AND THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES. THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ADVECTING A MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD. BY FRI AFTN...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX BENEATH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION BENEATH THE CAP DURING MOST OF FRI ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF SRN TX. BUT...AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST TSTMS FRI EVE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS CINH GRADUALLY WEAKENS. GIVEN INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PRIMARILY FRI EVE/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ALONG/JUST S OF THE INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ATOP MODEST BUOYANCY...HAVE UPGRADED TO A SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX FOR MAINLY FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ..RACY.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 06:36:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 01:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511250635.jAP6Z18I002088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250632 SWODY2 SPC AC 250631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 25 WNW VCT 45 SW CLL 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BLI 30 ESE AST 20 ESE OTH 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD JCT SPS 20 NW BVO 15 WNW TOP 25 WNW CDJ FAM MKL 10 S SEM 45 SSE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT EVE ACROSS TX/LA COASTAL AREAS.... DEEP...COLD CORE LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY...AND...BY EARLY SATURDAY... BROADER SCALE POLAR VORTEX WILL BECOME CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S...SUPPORTING AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT NOSES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FORCING A COUPLE OF DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PERHAPS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE LATTER PAIR...WEAKENING SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST RAPID MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS ALL BUT...PERHAPS...PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW TONGUE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL MODIFYING...THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD GENERATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY. DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER AREAS INLAND OF THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST MAY BE BASED ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIMITED. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL APPEARS BETTER FOR STORMS ROOTED IN MORE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AT 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER FORCING THROUGH THE DAY. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF DIGGING JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS... GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND. ..KERR.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 17:38:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 12:38:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511251737.jAPHbHpf007147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BRO 45 WNW NIR 10 W BAZ 20 SW UTS 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DRT 55 SW SJT 20 S END 40 SSW MHK 30 E OMA 25 WSW MLI 15 S SPI 30 NW HOP 30 SE MKL 20 SSW MEI 50 S PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY... ...CNTRL/ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY... UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY TONIGHT...PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS IT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT...NOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS S TX AND THE WRN GULF BASIN...WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX SATURDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD MODEST INSTABILITY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY. THIS MAY TEMPER THE NWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS/WARM FRONT...AND MOST TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE ROOTED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. MORE ROBUST TSTMS...HOWEVER...MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN/SRN EDGE OF THE MCS ACROSS THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP. STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LINEAR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO... DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. STRONGER TSTMS MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME. THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION...HOWEVER. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. ..RACY.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 06:02:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 01:02:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511260601.jAQ61647008399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260559 SWODY2 SPC AC 260557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TUL CNU MKC LWD OTM MLI MMO 35 NW LAF 10 SSE OWB 20 SE MKL UOX 10 SSE GWO 45 WNW JAN ELD TXK 20 W DEQ TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE GLS 30 NNE BPT 20 WSW LFK 30 NNE TYR DUA CHK MHK OTG BRD 60 ENE GNA 85 NE MQT 35 ENE APN MTC LUK HSV TOI 50 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER JET...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID- LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...AFTER LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR CYCLONE CENTER LEVEL OFF LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL RAPID DEEPENING MAY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY AS CENTER OF BROAD POLAR LOW CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND AT LEAST LIMITED RETURN FLOW /CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FEATURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS IN AMPLIFYING BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. IN ITS WAKE...NORTHWARD RETURNING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER TEXAS/ LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...MODELS SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL COLD POOL TO LAG TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES...LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 28/00Z...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 28/00Z...FROM PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE RAPID EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE MAY OCCUR DESPITE CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE. HOWEVER...SHEAR BENEATH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 70 KT SUNDAY EVENING/ WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED TO LAG WELL BEHIND FRONT AT THAT TIME...AND ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED ABOVE/JUST TO THE WEST OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 17:38:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 12:38:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511261736.jAQHarkd029770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261731 SWODY2 SPC AC 261729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GMJ 35 S OJC STJ 30 ESE OMA 15 S FOD 10 ENE DBQ 20 SW CGX 20 SE HUF 20 NNW HOP 30 N TUP 35 SSE GWO 20 WNW HEZ 30 NNW ESF 25 S TXK 35 S RKR 20 SW GMJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LBX 35 WNW BPT 35 NNW GGG 30 E DUA 30 SE CQB PNC 35 SSW BIE 10 ENE OLU 35 S MHE 25 WNW BKX 15 WNW BRD 20 N CMX 30 NNE PLN MBS 25 ESE MIE 20 SSW BWG 15 ENE MSL 15 NE SEM 50 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID/LWR MS VLYS... ...ERN PLAINS TO THE MID-LWR MS VLY... POWERFUL UPPER JET /120+KT H25 JET AT KOAK/ WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CA/GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS KS. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD NEAR/N OF KANSAS CITY BY 00Z MON...THEN INTO NCNTRL IA BY 12Z MON. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NWD AND REACH AT LEAST CNTRL IA-CNTRL IL LINE BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ERN TX TOWARD THE MS RVR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE LOW/ COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTN INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY CAUSE A RELAXATION OF THE RETURN FLOW. AS PRESSURES FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE FLOW WILL TEND TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SLY EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS AND MS VLY. THIS RAPID MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR... LIMITING HEATING. NONETHELESS...MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG FROM EXTREME SRN IA TO AR BY LATE AFTN. INITIAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN KS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE OZARKS SWD INTO CNTRL AR AS THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR. THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP/EVOLVE NNEWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO CNTRL/NCNTRL IA BY 12Z MON. FARTHER E...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO IL...FAR W KY...WRN TN...NWRN MS BY EARLY MONDAY. PRESENCE OF 100+ KT SWLY H5 JET ATOP A 60+ KT SLY H85 JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. 2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS EXHIBIT ENOUGH OF A PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES THAT DISCRETE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BUT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...STORM MODE SHOULD MAINLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OZARKS WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY. THERE WILL BE A SEPARATE AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS IA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 06:38:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 01:38:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511270637.jAR6bEZB029827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270635 SWODY2 SPC AC 270634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE 7R4 MCB TUP BNA 45 SSW LOZ 25 SSW HSS AHN 10 WNW MCN VLD 55 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 20 WSW HEZ 55 S GLH MEM MDH BRL 45 NW LWD DNS 35 ESE BKX AXN ELO 40 NNE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS UCA BGM DCA RDU 55 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND PARTS OF THE TN VLY.... ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROCEED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN BEGIN TO OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MERGE INTO CYCLONIC REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF RETROGRADING POLAR LOW IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BROADER SCALE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. BUT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT JET IS PROGGED TO NOSE THROUGH BASE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z MONDAY...BEFORE PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET CORE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY... STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AND THERMAL TROUGH STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO LAG TO THE NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE GULF STATES IS IN QUESTION. OF GREATER CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN RATHER MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE TO MAGNITUDES AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. BUT...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH AT LEAST WEAKLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEVELOPING NORTHWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION. FORCING MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AFTER DARK FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BEFORE BEGINNING TO SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT...ALONG WHICH STRONG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE BAND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FORECAST MAGNITUDE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /AOA 70 KT/...STABLE LAYER COULD BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SPORADIC DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ..KERR.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 17:36:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 12:36:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511271735.jARHZMUo012375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271727 SWODY2 SPC AC 271726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 7R4 30 SE HEZ 15 WSW UOX 35 SSE PAH 25 NE MVN 40 W LUK 15 E LOZ 30 W AVL AHN 10 WNW MCN VLD 55 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 10 NE IER 35 SW LLQ 40 SE BVX 25 S FAM 35 W BRL 45 NW LWD DNS 35 ESE BKX AXN ELO 40 NNE GNA ...CONT... MSS UCA BGM DCA RDU 55 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VLYS SWD TO THE GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG CYCLONE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY EARLY MON ACROSS THE CORN BELT THEN GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUE. BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY ON MON...AWAITING THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER JET STREAKS TO MIGRATE SEWD THROUGH TX. THIS IMPULSE AND THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY/UPPER MIDWEST MON. TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY 12Z TUE. ...GULF STATES AND TN VLY... STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...GRTLKS REGION AND OH VLY ON MON. BUT...AS THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LAGGING WITHIN SRN PARTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS EWD...THE GULF STATES AND TN VLY WILL RESIDE IN AN INTENSIFYING ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ H5 JET...BOOSTING LARGE SCALE UVV MON AFTN. MAINTENANCE OF A MODEST SLY LLJ WILL ADVECT THE MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS JUST OFFSHORE NOW...AS FAR N AS THE TN VLY BY MON AFTN. THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. BUT...MODEST HEATING AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE UVV WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM PARTS OF MS INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY MON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ORIENTATION OF THE 2-8KM MEAN WIND WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT A MIXED-MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE CELLS IS LIKELY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEVELOPING NORTHWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION WITH THE DAMAGING WIND/ISOLD TORNADO THREATS. FORCING MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AFTER DARK FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BEFORE BEGINNING TO SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...MIDWEST AND OH VLY... A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO THE WRN GULF STATES EARLY MON. STRONG DCVA AND STRONG DEEP SSWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY DURING THE DAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND...WRN/CNTRL KY BY LATE AFTN...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND COULD BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE BY THE CONVECTION...PRODUCING ISOLD AND SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS THE OH VLY WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST. FARTHER N...POTENTIAL FOR A SHALLOW-SURFACE STABLE LAYER MAY MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 06:49:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 01:49:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511280647.jAS6lfZM020017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280645 SWODY2 SPC AC 280644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE JAX AGS SPA MRB BWI 40 SE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BVE GZH TYS CAK 50 NNW ERI ...CONT... 50 NNW BTV GFL ALB 25 S PSF 45 E ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN... BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE U.S. WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IMPULSES COMPRISING LARGE SCALE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH ARE FORCED NORTHEASTWARD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES ACCELERATING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC... THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. WHILE REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ARE PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING...OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z TUESDAY...IS PROGGED NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLE WITH MAGNITUDE AND RATE OF PROGRESSION...FLOW IN BASE OF SOUTHERN IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG. MID-LEVEL JET CORE MAY REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 70-90 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS IT NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER FEATURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ...EAST COAST... COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP LAYER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SATURATED PRE-FRONTAL PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND PROVIDES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR OF UNCERTAIN SURFACE HEATING...NAM/NAM BKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. THIS IS FORECAST IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW....WITH RATHER LARGE...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. LOW-LEVEL PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS IT FINALLY SURGES INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE...SPREAD TOWARD COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 18:09:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 13:09:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511281807.jASI7hX9031409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281728 SWODY2 SPC AC 281727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 25 NW SAV 20 NW CLT 15 WSW MRB 15 WSW BWI 25 E GSB 50 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSS 40 W ALB 30 NW EWR 45 E ACY ...CONT... 55 S PNS 25 S TOI 35 W TRI 35 N ZZV 60 N CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 S OLM 25 SSE SLE 40 E OTH 55 WNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S... BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST REGION WHERE 60S SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AS CYCLONE GRADUALLY FILLS AND WEAKENS NORTH OF THE BORDER. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HOWEVER MOVE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG...WILL EVOLVE WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK LAPSE RATE...YET STRONGLY SHEARED...ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/OR BE MAINTAINED ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THIS OCCURRENCE WILL BE INTERIOR SECTIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 05:47:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 00:47:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511290545.jAT5jv5P020556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290533 SWODY2 SPC AC 290532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 10 NE PSF 55 NE EFK ...CONT... 50 ESE CRE 45 NNE EWN 50 E ORF ...CONT... 55 WSW FMY 40 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...ARE BEGINNING TO SUPPORT NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CENTRAL U.S. CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. LATTER FEATURES ARE PROGGED INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND LIFT THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THEIR WAKE...MODELS SUGGEST POLAR LOW WILL TURN MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANITOBA. SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY 12Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL U.S. CYCLONE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL HAVE ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH ALL BUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z. STABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RISK OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WESTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...AHEAD OF PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...IS PROGGED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE IT SPREADS INLAND. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT...OR PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER INHIBITION WILL BECOME WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ..KERR.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 17:24:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 12:24:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511291722.jATHMlUS020106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291719 SWODY2 SPC AC 291718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE JFK 15 N BAF 10 NNW LCI 15 WSW AUG 50 SSW BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE AS SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA TO ADVECT NWD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB MAY YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. IT APPEARS CLOUD TOPS COULD ATTAIN LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION THUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..DARROW.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 05:48:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 00:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511300547.jAU5lBW6026778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300544 SWODY2 SPC AC 300543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW HQM 20 ENE PDX 40 SE PDX 40 W RDM 30 ESE MFR 55 W EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO 15 E CRP PSX BPT 25 W 7R4 35 SSW HUM 60 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LATEST NAM/GFS AND NCEP SREF ALL INDICATE STRONG...LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY PHASING OF POLAR LOW...DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF HUDSON BAY...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED. BY 12Z THURSDAY...LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST POLAR LOW WILL LINGER UPSTREAM...OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MIGRATES OFF THE PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE... THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY...EXCEPT PERHAPS OREGON COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CASCADES LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING INLAND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...EAST OF THE ROCKIES... REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PERHAPS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ONE OTHER EXCEPTION COULD BE THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SHORES...WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING. ..KERR.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 17:28:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 12:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511301727.jAUHRFxu025240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301725 SWODY2 SPC AC 301724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW HQM 25 W PDX 30 SE EUG 45 SW MFR 55 W EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... WELL DEFINED SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH SW ORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INLAND AROUND NOON WITH POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCT CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH NEAR THE MARINE LAYER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ...NWRN GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING AIRMASS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO GRADUALLY RETURN NWD TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE WEAKER THAN THE NAM SUGGESTS ACROSS THIS REGION. RESULTANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE THAT SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 06:17:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 01:17:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511010617.jA16HQkU014819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010615 SWODY2 SPC AC 010613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 50 E DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BNO SMN BZN 10 NNW COD RIW 35 SSW BPI 10 ENE U31 15 ENE RBL 30 WSW LMT BNO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES COMPRISING THIS FEATURE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN STATES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...AS SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN. BOTH LATEST GFS AND NAM SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...LIKELY ADVANCING INTO AND ACROSS SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY ON TRAIL OF NORTH STREAM TROUGH. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY MAY BE OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... MODELS SUGGEST WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL BE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE FRONT ALREADY BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN TROUGH ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. IT NOW APPEARS ANY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED OR MINOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES...AND APPARENT LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE LOW... PROBABILITIES SEEM TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY WILL ALREADY BE ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES/NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 1 17:09:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:09:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511011709.jA1H9KMR000303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011704 SWODY2 SPC AC 011703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S EYW 50 E DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LMT 45 SSE BKE 30 SSW DLN 35 N JAC 50 NE EVW 25 E DPG 50 SSE NFL 35 NNW SAC 40 NW RBL 20 ENE LMT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... WLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD AND WEAKENING. DEEPER CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE BUT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...THEN ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...INTERIOR WEST... DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN IT APPEARS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WILL MOISTEN PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK UPDRAFTS MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...SHORT-LIVED AND SPARSE AT BEST. UPSTREAM...SHALLOW CONVECTION OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST MAY GENERATE LIGHTNING LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY3 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 11/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 06:15:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 01:15:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511020616.jA26G3hU029816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020613 SWODY2 SPC AC 020612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 25 NE PDX 50 SSE EUG 15 WSW 4BK 35 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SNY 10 NNW CDR 55 NW VTN 40 NW ONL OFK LNK 35 N CNK 30 SE MCK 40 SSE IML SNY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S...AS INTENSE HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK /NOW TOPPING CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE/ DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING THROUGH CREST OF BROADER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. IMPULSE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH...BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING DEEPER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR WESTERLIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE RIDGE NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE GULF STATES /IN WAKE OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE/ IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS IN WEAK BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THUS... WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY MODIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STEEP BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. DESPITE VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH- LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO SWEEP INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. ..KERR.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 2 16:46:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:46:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511021646.jA2Gk6QM023384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021632 SWODY2 SPC AC 021631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BLI 10 N PDX 30 S EUG 45 WNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN WY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 04/12Z. MEANWHILE TO THE W...STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND/OR AS OROGRAPHIC ASCENT BECOMES ENHANCED WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE FRONT. ..MEAD.. 11/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 05:51:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 00:51:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511030551.jA35ptol003694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030544 SWODY2 SPC AC 030543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 35 WNW DLS 60 SE EUG 40 WSW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW ERI DUJ LBE HTS DYR ARG 40 SSW TBN JEF SPI 20 SSE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...NOW DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MAY BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING A BIT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IN RESPONSE TO REMNANTS OF INTENSE PACIFIC JET DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGGED TO LIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY TODAY...IS FORECAST INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING/BECOMING SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST OF RETREATING SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN VEERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS FEATURE INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION IN UPPER FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE RAPID RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER. ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED...BUT IT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES ENHANCED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE WEAK FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET CORE IS PROGGED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE CASCADES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /500 MB TEMPS AOB -30C/...AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM. ..KERR.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 3 17:00:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 12:00:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511031700.jA3H0eAT016697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031632 SWODY2 SPC AC 031631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TOL 20 NNE CLE 30 S YNG 20 SSE HLG 40 NNW JKL 20 W HOP 20 NW POF 10 E VIH 45 NW ALN 30 WNW DNV 20 W TOL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC...MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN WWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ...OH VALLEY... 03/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY INDICATED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS WARM AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AMBIENT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS SWLY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF PERSISTENT WAA/DEEPER-LAYER CONVERGENCE WHERE NRN EXTENSION OF SWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. ..MEAD.. 11/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 05:59:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 00:59:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511040559.jA45xiIY010150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040557 SWODY2 SPC AC 040556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CSV 35 ENE MEM 30 SW RUE 25 SSE GMJ 20 SW SZL 40 WSW VPZ 20 N TOL 25 SE MFD 35 SW HTS 30 NNW CSV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ROC 40 E BGM 20 E ABE 40 SW DCA 55 N HKY 50 ENE RMG 35 ENE 0A8 30 NW MEI 35 NNE MLU DEQ 15 S TUL 15 W OJC 10 SW OLU 20 SW FSD 25 NNW MKT LSE 20 SSE LNR 15 SE RAC 30 NE GRR 15 E BAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH SATURDAY. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR DAY 2 IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN EVOLVING UPPER JET STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR N AS THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH COOLING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND EWD ADVECTION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION...BUT EVOLUTION INTO LINES IS ALSO PROBABLE. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER THE MS VALLEY...SPREADING NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. ..DIAL.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 4 17:14:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 04 Nov 2005 12:14:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511041714.jA4HEFBK011753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041710 SWODY2 SPC AC 041709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CLE 50 NW HTS 45 ENE BWG 30 SSW DYR 30 NNW LIT 30 WNW HRO 20 WSW COU 25 S MKG 65 E BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MSS 10 SSE ELM UNV 25 SSW EKN 15 NE TRI 35 ESE CHA 30 SSE HSV 30 E GWO 35 NNE MLU DEQ 15 S TUL 25 WNW LWD 25 NNW FOD 20 WNW FRM 25 W MSP 10 SSW EAU 30 NE VOK 15 WNW MTW 20 SSE TVC 65 E APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST/ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK AND THEN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT RAPIDLY DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO LOWER MI SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS....TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE MID MS OH VALLEYS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS... 04/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP /ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER/ ATOP A RETURNING...MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS. PERSISTENT SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE BENEATH THIS STRONG CAP WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER 60S S OF FRONTAL ZONE. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN LOWER MI TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER THE MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CAP REMOVAL AND SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...ESPECIALLY INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND FIELDS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVING TO MORE LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY ONGOING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES. ..MEAD.. 11/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 05:59:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 00:59:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511050558.jA55wxY1019348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050557 SWODY2 SPC AC 050556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST FRI NOV 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE BML 15 WSW EPM ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 25 WSW BWG 20 S SDF 20 NNW LUK 20 SSW FDY 25 SSW DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 15 NNE ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES... PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 BY EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT SLY SURFACE LAYER FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S PROBABLE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH ERN PA AND NY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR COULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...A STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE FORCING AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD DURING THE DAY. A FORCED LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR E OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM NRN VA THROUGH PA AND NY. STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND DAMAGING WIND. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..DIAL.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 5 17:02:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 05 Nov 2005 12:02:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511051702.jA5H2NrO019449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051700 SWODY2 SPC AC 051659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 35 SSE ISP ...CONT... 50 SE ACY 15 SSE JKL 35 SSW LEX 30 NNE SDF 15 NNE ARB 50 E BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE BML 15 WSW EPM ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 25 SE RDU 40 S SPA 35 NNE SEM MEI 40 SSE GWO 30 SW UOX 20 SSW OWB 20 E BMG 30 NW FWA 25 NNW RQB 65 NNE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 25 NNE SEA 45 S OLM 50 SW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC...NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD...REACHING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI AT 06/12Z WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS ERN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ...UPPER OH VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY... STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWD INTO CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN. INTENSIFYING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL AID IN RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. DESPITE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 7 C/KM AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL NY/PA AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT...STRONG WIND FIELDS /I.E. CLOUD-BEARING...MEAN WINDS OF 55-65 KTS/...SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWS OR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE. ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 06:17:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 01:17:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511060616.jA66Gp96031358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060614 SWODY2 SPC AC 060613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 10 ENE OLM 20 WSW PDX 35 SSW EUG 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E AZO 20 ESE CAK 40 ESE PKB 40 SE HTS 35 WNW JKL 50 SSW HUF 50 S UIN 40 SE OTM 20 ENE CID 10 SE JVL 10 E AZO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI 30 SSW VCT 15 SE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL MONDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SWRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CNTRL PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE NWD RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE FROM PARTS OF MO EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF IL AND EWD INTO IND AND OH. AT THIS TIME THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 6 17:29:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 06 Nov 2005 12:29:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511061729.jA6HTbU4024857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061727 SWODY2 SPC AC 061726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LRD 40 NNW ALI 30 SSW VCT 15 SE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 10 ENE OLM 20 WSW PDX 35 SSW EUG 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SBN 25 SSE FDY 25 N UNI 45 NNW TRI 35 NNE CSV 45 ENE PAH 40 NE VIH 30 SE IRK BRL 25 W MMO 35 SE SBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ LIFTS NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PART OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PART OF FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...OH VALLEY... WAA ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ON BACKSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG...AND THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL ATTM TO WARRANT ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...S TX... A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY OWING TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG ANY SMALL-SCALE CONFLUENCE LINES/HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 11/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 06:37:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 01:37:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511070637.jA76basD029849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070636 SWODY2 SPC AC 070635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DAY 20 NNE HUF 25 WNW SPI 30 SW BRL 25 SSW CID 30 ENE ALO 25 SSE LSE 35 E VOK 35 SSE MTW 15 E GRR 25 NW TOL 25 WSW FDY 30 WNW DAY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ERI 30 S DUJ 35 E EKN 10 SSE SSU 30 W BLF 10 SSE JKL 40 S SDF 40 WSW OWB 20 ENE POF 25 NNE UNO 45 S SZL 40 SE SDA 35 SSW FOD 30 SSE RWF STC 10 ESE ASX MQT 30 NNE PLN 105 E OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF CUTTING OFF THE SRN BRANCH OF FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE W COAST MONDAY...WHILE ADVANCING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ...ERN PARTS OF MID MS VALLEY GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY... RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW RESIDING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. BY LATE TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG ERN PART OF WARM FRONT FROM ERN KY...OH AND WV EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN STRONGER CAP WITH WWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP N OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING FROM NRN PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...MODERATE MUCAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MID MS VALLEY NEAR TRIPLE POINT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 7 17:40:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 07 Nov 2005 12:40:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511071739.jA7HdnGT004923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071737 SWODY2 SPC AC 071736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HTS 25 ESE LEX 30 ENE MVN 40 SE UIN 35 WNW BRL 15 WSW LSE 40 W CWA 45 ENE AUW 25 NNW MBL 10 S MBS 10 NNE CAK 25 ESE PKB 30 SE HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BUF 25 WNW UNV 30 NW DCA 25 WSW RIC 35 ESE DAN 30 NE HKY 40 NE CSV 20 WSW CGI 15 NNW TBN 35 NNE SZL 20 WSW OXV 20 WSW FOD 35 N SUX 30 WNW FSD 15 N VVV 25 N RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRY 25 NE MER 50 N BIH 45 ENE TPH 50 S ELY 25 WNW CDC 40 SSE SGU 10 N IGM 40 NE TRM 35 SSW SAN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION... ...OH/MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WILL PROVE FAVORABLE ALLOWING UNCONTAMINATED TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INLAND...RETURNING NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE THREAT EARLY...WITH TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME AS LLJ MAINTAINS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED UPSTREAM ACROSS IL/SRN MO. NEUTRAL-WEAK UPPER HEIGHT RISES THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER 00Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE SEVERE RISK AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AIDING RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT. LATEST THINKING IS WARM SECTOR INITIATION MAY STRUGGLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/SRN IL SUGGEST WEAK INHIBITION AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DARROW.. 11/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 06:23:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 01:23:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511080622.jA86MvUF014082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080620 SWODY2 SPC AC 080618 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 25 WNW ELM 25 SSW IPT 15 SSW MRB 40 W SHD 50 ESE JKL 30 WSW LOZ 40 SSW SDF 30 SSE BMG 20 WSW MIE 40 W TOL 35 SSE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ART 35 NW GFL 20 SSW EEN 20 SSE EWB ...CONT... 15 SSE SBY 25 SE CHA 20 SSW TUP 20 S BVX 15 NNE UNO 25 NE FAM 15 NNE DEC 10 WNW CGX 35 SSW MBL 25 N TVC 35 ESE ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE EWD AND UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC AREA DURING THE DAY. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... A STRONG WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD AND SHOULD INITIALLY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. A ZONE OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE UPSTREAM PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OH VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY REMOVE ANY REMAINING CAP BY MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY KINEMATIC PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 8 17:42:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 12:42:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511081742.jA8Hg4GT007526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081739 SWODY2 SPC AC 081738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ROC ELM 10 NW POU 45 SSW BID ...CONT... 50 E SBY 10 WNW NHK 35 S PSK CSV CKV 20 SSW OWB 10 SSW SDF DAY FWA 10 E AZO MBS 55 ENE BAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EFK BML AUG 20 S EPM ...CONT... 30 ENE WAL AHN TCL LLQ HOT FSM POF 15 NNE EVV 40 E IND 35 WSW FWA 20 WNW AZO GRR 35 WNW MBS 70 ENE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW UKI UKI TVL 50 SSW LAS 20 SSW TRM 20 SW RAL 55 S OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW...NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO DIG OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONES WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWARD COLD FRONTAL SURGE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER... RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...ALREADY ONGOING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE. ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY...AS NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE....WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED. A DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS AND FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG EXPECTED...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. WITH ONSET OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL COOLING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. A SQUALL LINE COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...SPREADING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 11/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 10 17:47:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2005 12:47:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511101746.jAAHksB5026309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101729 SWODY2 SPC AC 101728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF GDP ALM DMN 15 SE TUS 15 SE PHX LAS ENV JAC WRL 10 WNW VTN 10 SSE ANW EAR HLC 10 ENE GAG 30 ESE PVW 30 S 6R6. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 30 SSE SEA 50 WNW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... VIGOROUS JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS NORTHERN TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL STATES INTO THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...PLAINS... SURFACE RIDGING OVER WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...AND A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW. ...FOUR CORNERS STATES... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW. DESTABILIZATION/THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE NEAR MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY NEAR THE OLYMPICS AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES. ..KERR.. 11/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 06:45:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 01:45:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511110645.jAB6jIY2029192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110643 SWODY2 SPC AC 110642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEP 40 NW MWL SPS FSI END ICT MHK FOD MCW 45 SW LSE 30 SSE LNR RFD MMO BMI BLV FAM IER LFK ACT SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRP ALI COT 55 NNE DRT 45 E BGS 25 ENE GAG 45 W P28 DDC 35 NNW GCK GLD IML LBF BUB YKN AXN INL ...CONT... 40 WNW ERI 50 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ROX 50 WNW JMS Y22 2WX 4BQ BIL 3HT GTF CTB 45 NNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS N-CENTRAL/NE TX TO PORTIONS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST ALOFT THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA CHANNEL ISLANDS. 11/00Z SPECTRAL/ETA AND 10/21Z SREF MEAN APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM BEST...WITH NGM AS OUTLIER. BY 13/00Z...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI AND IA SWWD ACROSS W TX. FASTER/STRONGER SPECTRAL PROGS FOR UPSTREAM TROUGH -- NOW OVER DATA SPARSE NERN PACIFIC WATERS -- RESULT IN MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND TIGHTER GRADIENTS ALOFT FOR NRN PORTION OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH..AND THEREFORE...MUCH DEEPER SFC CYCLONE THAN ETA. SREF SOLUTIONS RUN THE FULL RANGE BETWEEN BOTH POSSIBILITIES. THEREFORE...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN PROGS BY MIDDLE OF PERIOD WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF SFC COLD FRONT. IN EITHER EVENT...EXPECT FRONT TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH DAY-2. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND/OR STALL SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX. ...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS -- SOME SEVERE -- ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT -- FIRST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...BECOMING MORE CONDITIONAL AND LATER IN AFTERNOON-EVENING FARTHER S TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN TX. ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN CONVERGENCE LINE SHIFTS EWD THROUGH ARKLATEX. SFC ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA INDICATE BROAD PLUME OF UPPER 60S TO 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AT ROOT OF SHALLOW TO MODERATELY DEEP MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS GULF. LOW LEVEL FRONT IS MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN GULF ATTM AND ASSOCIATED RETURN-FLOW GEOMETRY WILL RESULT IN NARROW PLUME OF FAVORABLY MODIFIED AIR MOVING NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK THROUGH EARLY-MIDDLE OF PERIOD. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 50S OVER UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID 60S CENTRAL TX. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...MOIST ADVECTION AND NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD OVERCOME CINH SOONER ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THAN FARTHER S...WHERE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE WARMER. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY -- BUT ALSO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING BOW ECHOES AND/OR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY ORIENTATION SHOULD BE LINEAR BUT STORM MODAL DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL THIS SOON. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND TIGHT DEEP-LAYER FLOW GRADIENTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY ESPECIALLY WITH OPTIMALLY VIGOROUS SPECTRAL FCST. ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY EXTEND FARTHER N THAN PRESENT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...HOWEVER VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT PRECIP IN PROGS PRECLUDE MORE THAN MARGINAL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM OVER MOST OF MN/WI. CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN PROGS OF DEEPENING/POSITION OF SFC CYCLONE -- AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COLD FRONT POSITION FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS -- RESULTS IN BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT WITH NEARLY UNIFORM PROBABILITIES ATTM. PRIND MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS SWATH AND THAT LARGER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS FOR THIS EVENT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 11 17:32:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2005 12:32:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511111731.jABHVx0F016926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111730 SWODY2 SPC AC 111729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEP 20 WNW MWL 30 E SPS 30 NNW PNC 40 NNW MHK 15 NW DNS MCW 45 SW LSE 30 SSE LNR RFD MMO BMI BLV 30 NNW POF IER LFK ACT SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP ALI 70 W COT 10 S DRT 45 E BGS 25 ENE GAG 45 W P28 DDC 35 NNW GCK GLD IML LBF BUB YKN AXN 25 NNE INL ...CONT... 40 WNW ERI 50 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROX 50 WNW JMS Y22 2WX 4BQ BIL 3HT GTF CTB 45 NNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NE TX TO PORTIONS OF LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS FOR A SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SWRN TROUGH. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD REACHING IA TO WRN WI BY 13/00Z...AND THEN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP E/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS... REACHING EAST CENTRAL MN SWWD ACROSS WRN IA TO ERN KS TO CENTRAL OK/ TX BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MODIFIED RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME ACROSS TX INTO OK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NOW INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN TX. SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SWRN STATES TROUGH. THIS LLJ SHOULD GENERALLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NRN MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA BY 13/00Z. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ENEWD ATOP A RATHER NARROW PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO ERN OK/KS TO WRN MO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...EXCEPT FOR THE AIR MASS RESIDING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES STATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SW WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 21-00Z AND EXTEND SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AND ERN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NERN TX WILL SPREAD E/SEWD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..PETERS.. 11/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 06:41:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 01:41:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511120640.jAC6ebQM027608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120637 SWODY2 SPC AC 120636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BUF JHW PIT CRW CHA 0A8 ASD 7R4 50 SE BPT ...CONT... DRT HDO 40 NW AUS SEP MWL CQB TUL FYV RUE LIT 60 W MEM 30 SE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CONUS PORTION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HEIGHT FALLS OVER CENTRAL STATES AND PORTIONS GREAT LAKES REGION...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES REINFORCE BUILDING MEAN TROUGH. FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER SWRN CO -- SHOULD CROSS PLAINS STATES THROUGH DAY-1...PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND PACIFIC NW. RESULTING MID/UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD EJECT FROM MN NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT THIS PERIOD. TRAILING LOW-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AT SFC...DEEP/OCCLUDED CYCLONE INITIALLY INVOF MN ARROWHEAD IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY REGION AND FILL...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD OVER OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL TX...MS AND AL. FRONT MAY RETREAT NWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF N TX AND SRN OK LATE IN PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO APCHG NRN PLAINS SYSTEM. ...LOWER MS VALLEY...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY. SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WITH TIME FROM LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY2 PERIOD...CONTINUING THAT TREND DISCUSSED IN LATEST SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK. INITIALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR BOWS...BUT WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY WITH TIME THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ACROSS WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN DURING DAY -- ALONG AND S OF SFC FRONT. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS MAY SHIFT/SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ARKLATEX INTO ERN OK AFTER DARK...AS ELEVATED REGIME OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ABOVE SFC. GEN TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT IN THIS REGIME BECAUSE OF DECREASING BUOYANCY...BOTH SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED. ALSO TSTM RISK WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT THROUGH OH VALLEY TOWARD CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE WARM SECTOR INFLOW INTO FRONT/CONVERGENCE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 12 17:20:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 12 Nov 2005 12:20:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511121719.jACHJbfM000901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121716 SWODY2 SPC AC 121715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 65 SSE BWD SEP MWL CQB TUL FYV RUE 15 NW LIT 10 SW JBR 30 SE DTW ...CONT... 25 WSW BUF JHW PIT CRW 35 NNE TYS 30 SSE RMG 50 WNW GZH ASD 35 E 7R4 60 SW 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION NEWD TO QUEBEC/NERN STATES...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS... REACHING NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO LA AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH 14/00Z...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO W GULF COASTAL PLAIN... THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/AR AND NERN TX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD SHOULD STILL BE ACTIVE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX NEWD TO WRN KY AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE ACTIVITY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF TN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD PROVIDE WEAKER UVVS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY FOCI FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR MESOSCALE BOUNDARY....ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ENEWD TO PARTS OF CENTRAL MS. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THUS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NNEWD SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO ERN OK/PARTS OF AR...AS ELEVATED REGIME OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE. ..PETERS.. 11/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 06:41:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 01:41:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511130641.jAD6fDPJ013550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130638 SWODY2 SPC AC 130637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV SLO 40 N EVV 25 E OWB BWG 40 S CKV ELD GGG TYR DAL GYI FYV BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BUF BUF BFD DUJ LBE JKL LOZ MSL 40 N ESF 40 S LFK SAT JCT BWD ADM JLN 45 SSE IRK 40 SE OTM OTM OXV FNB MHK HUT DDC GCK ITR TOR 85 E LWT GGW OLF SDY DIK PIR 9V9 YKN 40 SSE FSD EAU AUW MTW RQB 45 E BAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN TX TO SWRN INDIANA... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM GULF OF AK ACROSS AK PANHANDLE INTO NWRN BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES DAY-1 AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW DAY-2. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE FROM SERN ALTA/SWRN SASK SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO INVOF MN/IA BORDER DURING PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BASIC SCENARIO...AND ON ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING OF THERMAL/ISOHYPSIC GRADIENTS FROM S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND MO...AND SWD ACROSS OK -- SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN PERIOD...TRAILING SWWD AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS TO ARKLATEX REGION AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE INVOF NERN TX. AMIDST RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG NRN STREAM LOW -- FRONT SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS ERN OK...AR...WRN TN AND SERN MO AS WARM FRONT DURING PERIOD. ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND RICHER IN WARM SECTOR THETAE -- AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN SFC ANALYSIS OF MID/UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS NOW OVER E TX. INITIAL/PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATE DAY-1 ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AND SHIFT SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO MN -- AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND INTERSECT RETREATING WARM FRONT INVOF CENTRAL/ERN NEB BY 15/00Z...HOWEVER PRESENCE OF POST-DRYLINE AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR AIR SHUNTED FARTHER SE OVER OUTLOOK AREA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD OVERNIGHT...ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLY MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT FROM MO TO SERN OK. ...ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER OH VALLEY... TWO PRIMARY REGIMES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. FIRST AND POTENTIALLY MOST SERIOUS WILL BE WITH RETURN FLOW AIR MASS AND INVOF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS AR...PERHAPS ALSO WRN TN AND SERN MO DURING AFTERNOON. SEASONALLY STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG IN MODIFIED ETA/ETA-BKF SOUNDINGS. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVE SFC BACKING NEAR WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. MOIST NEAR-SFC AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. MAIN CONCERNS ATTM ARE NWD EXTENT OF RETURN FLOW -- WHICH VARIES CONSIDERABLY IN SREF MEMBERS -- AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR GENERATING TSTMS. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE IN PERIOD FROM LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX...AMIDST STRONG PREFRONTAL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS TX AS CAP STRENGTHENS...AND NEWD EXTENT OVER OH VALLEY REGION AS BUOYANCY BECOMES WEAKER/MORE ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 13 17:49:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2005 12:49:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511131749.jADHnH7b008798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131746 SWODY2 SPC AC 131745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N JLN 40 NW FAM 25 SSE MVN 25 ESE PAH 20 N UOX 45 NW JAN 10 WNW MLU GGG TYR DAL GYI 20 ENE TUL 60 N JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 35 NNW BPT 45 S LFK SAT JCT 25 WNW SEP 35 NW ADM 30 NNE PNC 25 N P28 GCK 35 NE LAA 25 W EGE 40 S EVW 10 WNW WEY GGW 15 SE SDY 20 SE DIK PIR 10 SSE 9V9 35 ENE ONL 30 W SDA LWD 30 SSW DBQ 30 ENE JVL 15 SSE MKG 40 E BAX ...CONT... 45 NW BUF 10 SSE BUF 25 NNE PSK 35 ESE RWI FAY 25 NNE AHN 15 NW BHM 30 NW MEI 30 NE MCB 35 SSE BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION/ERN OK NEWD TO SRN MO/AR... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SEWD FROM SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN PARTS OF SD/NEB BY 12Z TUESDAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WWD AND CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA UNTIL AFTER 15/00Z. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES BY 15/00Z. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS LOW TRACKING SEWD INTO WRN OK BY 15/06Z...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TO CENTRAL MO BY 15/12Z AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AMPLIFIES. A COUPLE OF GENERALLY E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A PRIMARY WARM FRONT RETREATING SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY MONDAY...GIVEN INITIALLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THIS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NWD MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MO TO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...NERN TX/NRN LA/ERN OK/AR/FAR SERN KS/SRN MO/SRN IL AND WRN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND AR WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AS SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD. DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE WARM SECTOR AND RETREATING WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN OK/SRN AR SWD INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY INTENSITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ERN OK/SERN KS INTO SRN MO TO NERN TX...AND MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY NWD WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM TX INTO ERN KS/MO/SRN IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO ERN OK COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED AND CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ..PETERS.. 11/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 07:14:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:14:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511140713.jAE7Dwfp002487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140705 SWODY2 SPC AC 140704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RUE SLO HUF IND 40 WSW DAY LUK LEX TCL MEI JAN LLQ RUE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT GLS 55 SSW CLL TPL ACT 30 SSE MLC SGF VIH STL DEC CGX GRR FNT MTC CLE CAK PKB CRW TRI HSS ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC SYR BGM CXY 35 W DCA RIC 40 SSW ECG 15 SSE EWN ILM CRE 45 SE AGS MCN DHN 55 WSW PFN ...CONT... 70 W COT 30 NNW DAL 45 S CQB TUL 60 NNE JLN MKC BIE GRI 25 E ONL FSD RWF MSP EAU AUW 45 NNW TVC 55 E APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...CENTRAL/ERN AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/NRN AL...CENTRAL/WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN OH... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO PACIFIC NW AND BC THROUGH PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ROCKIES OF BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER IA BY AROUND 16/00Z. BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WILL SHIFT/AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS TX AND SEWD TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY OVER SRN SASK/NERN MT WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS DAY-1...AND ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NE TX SWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO JUST W DRT -- MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BY START OF PERIOD AND WILL ACT AS SWRN BOUND FOR TSTMS BACKBUILDING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CYCLONE ON OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN OZARKS REGION AT 15/12Z TOWARD SRN LM AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING DAY...ITSELF OCCLUDING INVOF ERN LOWER MI BY 16/12Z. CURRENT FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM MID TN SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG WARM FRONT FROM LATE DAY-1 THROUGH DAY-2 PERIODS...E OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. ...E TX TO LOWER MI AND GA/AL... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH NUMEROUS TOTAL REPORTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO...BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS EXPECTED ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...SOME SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE WIND AND/OR TORNADO EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERLAP OF LARGEST PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE AREA REPRESENTS AREA WHERE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND AS WARM FRONT RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN RICH MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN 14/00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND DRT...06Z SFC ANALYSIS AND LATEST GPS PW DATA. PLUMES OF SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F NOW ARE ANALYZED INLAND -- AND 70S OVER MOST OF OPEN WRN GULF. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY LATE DAY-1 INTO DAY-2 AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER MS DELTA REGION TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG N OF OH RIVER. HOWEVER...INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH WINDS ABOVE 50 KT JUST OFF SFC AND UPWARD THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. LARGE/LONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PRESENCE OF SBCAPE AND STRENGTH OF FLOW INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND OVER BROAD SWATH FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INDIANA/OH...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS LOWER MI. ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE -- HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DISCRETE AND FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUCH TSTMS TO DEVELOP. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD WEAKEN DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO MID TN AND PORTIONS GA/AL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 07:21:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:21:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511140720.jAE7KRRV004242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140712 SWODY2 SPC AC 140711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RUE SLO HUF IND 40 WSW DAY LUK LEX TCL MEI JAN LLQ RUE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S BPT GLS 55 SSW CLL TPL ACT 30 SSE MLC SGF VIH STL DEC CGX GRR FNT MTC CLE CAK PKB CRW TRI HSS ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC SYR BGM CXY 35 W DCA RIC 40 SSW ECG 15 SSE EWN ILM CRE 45 SE AGS MCN DHN 55 WSW PFN ...CONT... 70 W COT 30 NNW DAL 45 S CQB TUL 60 NNE JLN MKC BIE GRI 25 E ONL FSD RWF MSP EAU AUW 45 NNW TVC 55 E APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL INDIANA...SRN IL...SERN MO...CENTRAL/ERN AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/NRN AL...CENTRAL/WRN KY...EXTREME SWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN LOWER MI... CORRECTED FOR TRANSPOSED HEADLINES ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH FCST OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS BY END OF PERIOD. NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO PACIFIC NW AND BC THROUGH PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ROCKIES OF BC -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER IA BY AROUND 16/00Z. BROAD FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WILL SHIFT/AMPLIFY SWD ACROSS TX AND SEWD TO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS NOW UNDERWAY OVER SRN SASK/NERN MT WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS DAY-1...AND ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NE TX SWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY TO JUST W DRT -- MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD BY START OF PERIOD AND WILL ACT AS SWRN BOUND FOR TSTMS BACKBUILDING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CYCLONE ON OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MOVE FROM WRN OZARKS REGION AT 15/12Z TOWARD SRN LM AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING DAY...ITSELF OCCLUDING INVOF ERN LOWER MI BY 16/12Z. CURRENT FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS STALLED FROM MID TN SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG WARM FRONT FROM LATE DAY-1 THROUGH DAY-2 PERIODS...E OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. ...E TX TO LOWER MI AND GA/AL... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH NUMEROUS TOTAL REPORTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO...BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS EXPECTED ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA...AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...SOME SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE WIND AND/OR TORNADO EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERLAP OF LARGEST PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE AREA REPRESENTS AREA WHERE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND AS WARM FRONT RETREATS RAPIDLY NWD. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN RICH MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN 14/00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND DRT...06Z SFC ANALYSIS AND LATEST GPS PW DATA. PLUMES OF SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F NOW ARE ANALYZED INLAND -- AND 70S OVER MOST OF OPEN WRN GULF. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY LATE DAY-1 INTO DAY-2 AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT OVER WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER MS DELTA REGION TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG N OF OH RIVER. HOWEVER...INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH WINDS ABOVE 50 KT JUST OFF SFC AND UPWARD THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. LARGE/LONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PRESENCE OF SBCAPE AND STRENGTH OF FLOW INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND OVER BROAD SWATH FROM LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INDIANA/OH...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS LOWER MI. ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR -- AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE -- HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DISCRETE AND FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUCH TSTMS TO DEVELOP. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD WEAKEN DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST SRN PORTION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO MID TN AND PORTIONS GA/AL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 14 17:35:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2005 12:35:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511141734.jAEHYup1003753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW FAM 20 NNE DEC 25 N DNV 25 ENE LAF 15 WSW MIE 25 WSW LUK 25 SW LEX 25 NW CSV 40 E HSV 20 WSW BHM 35 NNE MEI 25 NNW JAN 35 NNE MLU 40 N ELD 15 SSE RUE 35 NNW FAM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 20 W GLS 55 SSW CLL 20 SSE TPL 25 SSW DAL 35 SSE MKO SGF 25 ENE JEF 35 WNW SPI 25 SSW MMO CGX GRR FNT MTC 45 N CLE CAK 10 NNW PKB 10 W CRW 20 NNE TRI 45 WSW AVL ATL TOI 30 S MOB 60 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC 35 WNW ELM 45 N UNV 30 E AOO 30 WNW DCA 10 ENE RIC 15 W ECG 25 ENE EWN 10 ENE ILM 20 N CRE 10 E CAE 40 WSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 10 WNW AAF ...CONT... 70 W COT 25 ESE BWD 15 NNW ADM 35 W TUL 25 SSE EMP 30 NNW TOP 20 WNW SDA 10 SW DNS 35 E SPW 10 N RST 30 W CWA 50 SSE IMT 30 N TVC 55 E APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH PARTS OF THE SERN U.S...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS A STRONG JET STREAK DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER NE OK BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD WITHIN ZONE OF AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFT NEWD...THE WARM FRONT NOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT TAILING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY REACHING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT. ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH SRN GREAT LAKES... RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW RESIDING FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS SRN IL AND SRN IND. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY LARGE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 800 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO AOA 60 KT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN SPREADING NEWD DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES CONTAINING LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 11/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 07:09:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 02:09:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511150708.jAF78fws004275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150702 SWODY2 SPC AC 150701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HSE OAJ FLO CAE SPA HKY SHD MRB IPT ITH SYR 45 SW SLK 40 NW RUT RUT EEN GON 35 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW BVE MOB SEM CHA JKL UNI ZZV 45 N CLE ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 35 WSW APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND TO NRN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY TOWARD DEEP CENTRAL/ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC TROUGH. MAIN FEATURE INVOLVED IN THIS TRANSITION IS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ND. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD SRN HUDSON/JAMES BAYS DURING DAY-3...LEAVING HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS MS VALLEY. WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE DEEPLY OCCLUDES AND SIMILARLY EJECTS NEWD...INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM APPALACHIANS ACROSS ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND OFFSHORE. ...MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID MORNING...MOVE EWD ACROSS DE/HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS AND ADJACENT AREAS...AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY SHOULD INGEST PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...MOIST...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIR AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS PA/NY/NRN DELMARVA REGION. INFLOW LAYER ALSO SHOULD DEEPEN AS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES FROM PA/NY HIGHLANDS INTO LOWER TERRAIN NEAR COAST. NEUTRALLY TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BAND UNTIL ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INGEST MORE STABLE MARINE AIR IN CENTRAL/ERN NEW ENGLAND. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM -- ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENCE OF 50-70 KT FLOW BEGINNING A KM OR LESS ABOVE SFC ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION -- WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS DESPITE WEAKNESS OF CAPE. TORNADO RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL -- OWING TO CONCERNS OVER CONVECTIVE MODE AND BUOYANCY. ...VA/CAROLINAS... FARTHER S ACROSS POTOMAC VALLEY REGION INTO ERN VA AND CAROLINAS...EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SFC HEATING. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG -- SUPPORTED BY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DIURNALLY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...AS WELL AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CAROLINAS ACROSS GA AND NRN FL. THIS WILL RAMP DOWN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH SWD EXTENT. ...EARLY-MIDMORNING...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN... PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS AL/GA EARLY IN PERIOD. THIS WILL REPRESENT A CONTINUATION OF LATE DAY-1 REGIME OVER AL/GA...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE TREND WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL....THOUGH FCST SOUNDINGS IN MOST MOIST/UNSTABLE SCENARIOS SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 15 16:58:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 11:58:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511151657.jAFGvEpD002090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151651 SWODY2 SPC AC 151650 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE HSE OAJ 40 WSW CRE CAE SPA HKY 40 NE SSU 45 W EKN 40 NNW JHW ART 50 NE UCA 20 ESE GFL 30 ENE PSF 15 ESE BDL 35 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GPT MGM 50 ESE CHA 45 NNW TRI 20 E UNI ZZV 45 N CLE ...CONT... 20 ENE MLB 30 SSW APF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/SWRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...AS A 120 KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTS NWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN SRN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND CONTINUE LIFTING/DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NWD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ...PA/NY/NRN VA AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG GRADIENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND FAST MOTION OF LINE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES LESS THAN 200 J/KG SUGGEST THE WIND THREAT MAY BE LOW. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA/NY AND ERN WV WHERE VERY STRONG FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. AS THUNDERSTORM LINE/FRONT MOVES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN PA/SRN NY SWD INTO VA. THE WIND THREAT WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIR. ...SRN VA AND CAROLINAS... THE FORCING AND WIND FIELDS...AND CONSEQUENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN ACROSS PA/NY. HOWEVER... 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF DISCRETE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST 1 KM SRH FROM 200-250 M2/S2 MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINEAR SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS FRONT/STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE. ...SERN AL EWD ACROSS GA AND NRN FL... BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AR...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFTED PARCELS BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 11/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 05:54:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 00:54:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511160553.jAG5riJx025239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160549 SWODY2 SPC AC 160548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND RIDGE INVOF PACIFIC COAST ...WILL CHARACTERIZE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD. INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW SWEEPING EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS AND SEWD INTO NWRN GULF -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD THROUGH PENINSULAR FL BY ABOUT 18/00Z. AHEAD OF FRONT...EXPECT FLOW TO SHIFT TO ELY/ENELY IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY 17/12Z. MEANWHILE...IN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...RELATIVELY STABLE MIDLEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER FL. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND KEEP CAPE CONFINED TO LAYERS BELOW THOSE NEEDED FOR OPTIMAL ICE FORMATION AND CHARGE SEPARATION. THERFORE...TSTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW FOR OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 16 17:21:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 12:21:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511161720.jAGHKXqS001852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161708 SWODY2 SPC AC 161707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CST WED NOV 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION...DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ..DIAL.. 11/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 06:12:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 01:12:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511170611.jAH6Bqtn003068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170609 SWODY2 SPC AC 170608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS SERN CONUS...AS STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...AND SEWD THROUGH FL PENINSULA...WILL RENDER AIR MASS TOO DRY/STABLE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SRN FL WHERE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY MAY STALL DAY-1 INTO DAY-2. ...SRN FL/KEYS... REMAINS OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SRN FL OR FL STRAITS...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE MIDLEVEL LAYER EVIDENT IN VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND WARM-CLOUD IN CHARACTER. LATEST OPERATIONAL ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS -- AND MORE SO THAN MOST SREF MEMBERS -- IN OVERCOMING MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER AND GENERATING DEEP CAPE. ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM TO ASSIGN GEN TSTM RISK AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 17 17:03:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 12:03:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511171702.jAHH2kxR002505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171657 SWODY2 SPC AC 171656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CST THU NOV 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN US WILL BE REINFORCED AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN US WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST. LOW-LEVEL NLY FLOW IN THE SRN AND ERN US WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION OFF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 11/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 06:18:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 01:18:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511180617.jAI6HboJ027023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180615 SWODY2 SPC AC 180614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO WRN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD AND STABLE AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST WITH TIME...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE TSTM PROSPECTS MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS REMAIN HIGH. A THUNDER AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED IN THIS OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME BUT SOME MARGINAL POTENTIAL MAY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. ..CARBIN.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 18 17:29:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2005 12:29:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511181728.jAIHSHHo028976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181725 SWODY2 SPC AC 181724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 25 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY AMPLIFY REACHING THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN SRN FL MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 06:03:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 01:03:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511190602.jAJ62ZXC020836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190601 SWODY2 SPC AC 190600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE MOB 30 N TLH 50 ENE ABY 20 N VDI 10 NNE CHS 30 SSE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION BEGINS TO ENSUE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT TROUGH...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND ASCENT BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ARE FCST TO INTENSIFY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENEWD TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EVENTUALLY...ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN/NERN GULF AND PROBABLY TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN FL WHILE CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF T.S. GAMMA FCST TO BE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES A TREND ESTABLISHED IN PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATING A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST NAM...NCEP SREF MEAN...AND NOGAPS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW...OVER FL BY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD/EARLY MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IN PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NERN GULF/NRN FL AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING AMPLITUDE/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LATER HALF OF THIS OUTLOOK. ...SOUTHEAST/FL... BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF AND FL. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO LOWER STATIC STABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK/LIMITED OVER MUCH OF FL AND THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER... DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STRONGER TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW/UNCERTAIN FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. ..CARBIN.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 19 17:16:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 12:16:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511191715.jAJHF77G010422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191712 SWODY2 SPC AC 191711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 20 W GNV 15 WSW JAX 20 NW SSI 35 ENE SAV 55 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL US WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN UPPER-LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND A WARM FRONT WILL ORGANIZE IN SRN FL AND LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM TROPICAL STORM GAMA MAY IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION SOME OVER FL. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 06:27:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 01:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511200625.jAK6PtfK026200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200623 SWODY2 SPC AC 200622 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW CTY 35 SE VLD 35 NE SSI 45 SE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN 30 SW MCN 35 ESE AND 35 ENE RZZ 30 SE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WILL PROMOTE PRIMARY FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM AND DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT/COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO APPALACHEE BAY FL BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE/REDEVELOP TO NEAR CHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROM THERE THE LOW WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TO A POSITION EAST OF NJ BY 12Z TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...FL... MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS SHOULD COVER MUCH OF FL BY MONDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF THE DAY IN AREAS BETWEEN THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF FL MAY LIFT INTO SRN GA AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND FROM THE GULF. AS THE LOW SPREADS NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT COULD RESULT IN A POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT EVOLVING IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. WEAK INHIBITION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF FL SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/. GUIDANCE FROM NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT EXIST THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH SSWLY 850MB FLOW INCREASING TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM MODE STILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL DURING THE DAY. MOST LIKELY SEVERE TSTM SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50-75KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST. ..CARBIN.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 20 17:22:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2005 12:22:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511201721.jAKHLpEm018865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201719 SWODY2 SPC AC 201717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AAF 10 W SSI 30 SSE SAV 25 S CHS 10 NNE CRE 15 WNW ILM 15 E OAJ 40 W HSE 50 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS 20 W ABY 40 NNW VDI CAE 25 W SOP 20 ENE RZZ 35 SSE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...FL PENINSULA AND GA/SC/NC COASTS... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND WARM FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F ALONG THE COAST OF GA...SC AND NC THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS STORMS MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WRN COAST OF FL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z IN THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY SHOW SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1400 J/KG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.60 INCHES COMBINED WITH 70 KT AT 850 MB MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY BE WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN NC. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD OFFSHORE. ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 05:52:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 00:52:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511210551.jAL5pTpD002941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210550 SWODY2 SPC AC 210549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DURING TUESDAY...CENTER OF POWERFUL NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND...ACROSS CAPE COD...TO A POSITION IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EVENING. FROM THERE...THE LOW WILL TRACK NNEWD TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE NOREASTER WILL COVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN A COLD AIR MASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SPORADIC CG LTG MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF MAINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW LTG STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ORGANIZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TSTM CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 21 17:12:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 12:12:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511211711.jALHBJHi021440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211709 SWODY2 SPC AC 211708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ISP 25 ESE EEN 20 ENE CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. A 980 TO 985 MB SURFACE-LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IS MOVES NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND THEN INTO ERN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH SOME IN-CLOUD AND PERHAPS A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES -- SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD INVOF DEEPENING/NWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW. THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY...NAMKF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS. LIKEWISE...SREF DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST 50% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 50 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND...THUS SUPPORTING THE INCLUSION OF A 10% THUNDER LINE THIS FORECAST. EITHER WAY...AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 05:42:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 00:42:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511220541.jAM5fUnj002023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220539 SWODY2 SPC AC 220538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CRESTS LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW INTERIOR OF CANADA AND RESULTS IN A STRONG JET EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE NCNTRL U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE NERN U.S. WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WITHIN BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. A SRN BRANCH UPPER LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE PACIFIC TO A POSITION NEAR SRN CA/BAJA BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN DRY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OCCUR OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF POLAR JET...COUPLED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UNFROZEN LAKES...WILL RESULT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VIGOROUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED TURBULENCE ABOVE THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. SPORADIC CG LTG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW-TOPPED LES BANDS ORIGINATING OVER THE LAKES. HOWEVER...TSTM PERSISTENCE OVER LAND AREAS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LIMITED CHARGE SEPARATION. ..CARBIN.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 22 17:21:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511221720.jAMHK7Zf021205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221716 SWODY2 SPC AC 221715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A VERY LARGE TROUGH REMAINING OVER ERN CANADA/THE ERN CONUS. THOUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM ERN U.S. TROUGH. WITH GENERALLY STABLE/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITHIN BROAD AREA OF NW FLOW ALOFT...LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER EXISTS. POLAR VORTEX -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE ERN TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS CHANGEABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WITH TIME SHOULD GENERALLY NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY-ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE...AS PASSAGE OF 850/700 MB TROUGHS MAY RESULT IN MORE UNIFORM NWLY FLOW ALOFT -- AND THUS MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT BANDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A THUNDER OUTLOOK. ..GOSS.. 11/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 05:39:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 00:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511230538.jAN5cLAQ028021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230536 SWODY2 SPC AC 230534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BUF 35 S BUF 20 S JHW 15 ENE YNG 20 NE CAK 20 S CLE 30 N MFD 30 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 20 NE BDR 10 SW PVD 25 ESE BOS 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 20 W ANJ 35 W APN 25 W RQB 30 E SBN 15 WSW SBN 40 NW BEH 50 NE MTW MQT 60 ENE GNA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY AND FEATURE A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...AND A DEEP LARGE SCALE POLAR VORTEX ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF ERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION TO THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...A SRN BRANCH MID LEVEL WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NRN MEXICO. POWERFUL JET MAX WITH 500MB FLOW NEARING 150KT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL RESULT IN 1) CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND...AND 2) SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT IN GENERALLY FAVORED MESOSCALE AREAS DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKES. ...DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR...MICHIGAN...ERIE... LES BANDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND INTENSE DURING THE DAY AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THIS REGION AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EASES. MEANWHILE...LES EVENT WILL BE ONGOING FROM SUPERIOR SWD. EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 150 J/KG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOVE 700MB AND EL TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -20C. COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE LARGE SCALE...MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LES BANDS SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDER...MOSTLY OVER THE LAKES...BUT OCCASIONALLY WITHIN BANDS EXTENDING ONSHORE. ...SERN NEW ENGLAND... THERMALLY INDIRECT CIRCULATION IN JET EXIT REGION WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ON COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 23 17:49:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2005 12:49:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511231748.jANHmH2e000645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231741 SWODY2 SPC AC 231740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 30 W GON 15 S CON 15 W AUG 45 SSE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ART 20 ESE ART 20 ENE SYR 15 NNW ROC 35 NW BUF 30 SE BUF 15 E JHW 30 N YNG 10 NNE CLE 35 NW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW ANJ 20 W ANJ 35 W APN 20 W RQB 30 E SBN 15 WSW SBN 40 NW BEH 50 NE MTW 30 NNW MQT 80 N CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE EMBEDDED POLAR VORTEX ROTATES CYCLONICALLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN QUEBEC THROUGH 25/12Z. MEANWHILE...WRN U.S. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WRN U.S./WRN CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE -- A WEAK TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS IT SHIFTS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT THUNDER OFFSHORE...WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW STRIKES AS FAR W AS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOCATION OF WARM SECTOR. ...GREAT LAKES... VERY COLD /-36 TO -38C/ MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2. WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS. HOWEVER...AS POLAR VORTEX MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES. THIS SHOULD ACT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL-ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT BANDS TO SOME DEGREE OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES -- AND LIKEWISE LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING. OVER THE ERN LAKES...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE UNIFORM FROM THE WNW...AS 850 AND 700 MB LOWS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD JUST TO THE N OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. HOWEVER...WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE PLUMES -- ALSO LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. WILL MAINTAIN 10% THUNDER LINE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT IN GENERAL...EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 06:05:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 01:05:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511240604.jAO64StA004825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240602 SWODY2 SPC AC 240600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF 30 SW FST 50 ENE BGS 40 ESE FSI 35 SSE MLC 15 NW TXK SHV 45 SE POE 65 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HQM 30 SE AST 60 ESE OTH 50 E MHS 70 WNW LOL 15 NNW BAM 30 NW ENV 30 NNW DPG 60 SE U24 BCE 40 W SGU 10 E DRA 45 ESE FAT 35 W SAC 25 NNW UKI 70 WNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MIDWEST AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE LAYER OVER THESE AREAS. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AND EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ACCELERATING NEWD ACROSS SOUTH TX FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ...TX... LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN/NWRN GULF COAST WWD TO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE NRN MEXICO TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RETURN OF GRADUALLY MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. NAM AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF COAST AND SOUTH TX APPEAR TO SUGGEST ONLY A MARGINAL SKIN LAYER OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THESE AREAS BENEATH A MID LEVEL CAP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY...THE FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GUIDANCE OVER THE REGION APPEARS SUSPECT BASED ON LATEST OBS OVER THE GULF AND THIS LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY STRONG FORCING AND THE EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CAP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IF TSTMS CAN TAP POTENTIALLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND WIND WOULD INCREASE GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK. MODEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS APPEAR TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MOVING OVER SOUTH TX AFTER DARK. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 24 17:49:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2005 12:49:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511241748.jAOHmL3D003842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241731 SWODY2 SPC AC 241730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 40 ESE LRD 20 W COT 20 W SAT 55 N VCT 20 NE LBX 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF 30 SW FST 50 ENE BGS 40 ESE FSI 35 SSE MLC 20 NW TXK 40 WNW IER 15 SSW POE 35 ESE 7R4 60 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HQM 30 SE AST 60 ESE OTH 50 E MHS 70 WNW LOL 15 NNW BAM 30 NW ENV 30 NNW DPG 60 SE U24 BCE 40 W SGU 10 E DRA 45 ESE FAT 35 W SAC 25 NNW UKI 70 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST... ...CNTRL/SRN TX... UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL BAJA WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TURNS EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TONIGHT/FRI. GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF THIS WAVE. IT DOES APPEAR... HOWEVER...THAT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM/NAMKF IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH SATL TRENDS AND THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES. THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ADVECTING A MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD. BY FRI AFTN...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX BENEATH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION BENEATH THE CAP DURING MOST OF FRI ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF SRN TX. BUT...AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST TSTMS FRI EVE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS CINH GRADUALLY WEAKENS. GIVEN INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PRIMARILY FRI EVE/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ALONG/JUST S OF THE INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ATOP MODEST BUOYANCY...HAVE UPGRADED TO A SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX FOR MAINLY FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ..RACY.. 11/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 06:36:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 01:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511250635.jAP6Z18I002088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250632 SWODY2 SPC AC 250631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 25 WNW VCT 45 SW CLL 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BLI 30 ESE AST 20 ESE OTH 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD JCT SPS 20 NW BVO 15 WNW TOP 25 WNW CDJ FAM MKL 10 S SEM 45 SSE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT EVE ACROSS TX/LA COASTAL AREAS.... DEEP...COLD CORE LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY...AND...BY EARLY SATURDAY... BROADER SCALE POLAR VORTEX WILL BECOME CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...ACROSS HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S...SUPPORTING AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT NOSES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FORCING A COUPLE OF DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PERHAPS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE LATTER PAIR...WEAKENING SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST RAPID MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS ALL BUT...PERHAPS...PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW TONGUE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL MODIFYING...THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD GENERATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY. DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER AREAS INLAND OF THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST MAY BE BASED ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIMITED. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL APPEARS BETTER FOR STORMS ROOTED IN MORE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AT 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER FORCING THROUGH THE DAY. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF DIGGING JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS... GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND. ..KERR.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 25 17:38:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 25 Nov 2005 12:38:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511251737.jAPHbHpf007147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BRO 45 WNW NIR 10 W BAZ 20 SW UTS 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DRT 55 SW SJT 20 S END 40 SSW MHK 30 E OMA 25 WSW MLI 15 S SPI 30 NW HOP 30 SE MKL 20 SSW MEI 50 S PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY... ...CNTRL/ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY... UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY TONIGHT...PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS IT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT...NOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS S TX AND THE WRN GULF BASIN...WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX SATURDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD MODEST INSTABILITY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY. THIS MAY TEMPER THE NWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS/WARM FRONT...AND MOST TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE ROOTED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. MORE ROBUST TSTMS...HOWEVER...MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN/SRN EDGE OF THE MCS ACROSS THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP. STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LINEAR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO... DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. STRONGER TSTMS MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME. THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION...HOWEVER. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. ..RACY.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 06:02:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 01:02:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511260601.jAQ61647008399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260559 SWODY2 SPC AC 260557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TUL CNU MKC LWD OTM MLI MMO 35 NW LAF 10 SSE OWB 20 SE MKL UOX 10 SSE GWO 45 WNW JAN ELD TXK 20 W DEQ TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE GLS 30 NNE BPT 20 WSW LFK 30 NNE TYR DUA CHK MHK OTG BRD 60 ENE GNA 85 NE MQT 35 ENE APN MTC LUK HSV TOI 50 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER JET...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID- LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...AFTER LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR CYCLONE CENTER LEVEL OFF LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL RAPID DEEPENING MAY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY AS CENTER OF BROAD POLAR LOW CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND AT LEAST LIMITED RETURN FLOW /CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS UPPER FEATURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS IN AMPLIFYING BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. IN ITS WAKE...NORTHWARD RETURNING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER TEXAS/ LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...MODELS SUGGEST A TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL COLD POOL TO LAG TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES...LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 28/00Z...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 28/00Z...FROM PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE RAPID EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE MAY OCCUR DESPITE CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE. HOWEVER...SHEAR BENEATH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 70 KT SUNDAY EVENING/ WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED TO LAG WELL BEHIND FRONT AT THAT TIME...AND ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED ABOVE/JUST TO THE WEST OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 26 17:38:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2005 12:38:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511261736.jAQHarkd029770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261731 SWODY2 SPC AC 261729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GMJ 35 S OJC STJ 30 ESE OMA 15 S FOD 10 ENE DBQ 20 SW CGX 20 SE HUF 20 NNW HOP 30 N TUP 35 SSE GWO 20 WNW HEZ 30 NNW ESF 25 S TXK 35 S RKR 20 SW GMJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LBX 35 WNW BPT 35 NNW GGG 30 E DUA 30 SE CQB PNC 35 SSW BIE 10 ENE OLU 35 S MHE 25 WNW BKX 15 WNW BRD 20 N CMX 30 NNE PLN MBS 25 ESE MIE 20 SSW BWG 15 ENE MSL 15 NE SEM 50 SSE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID/LWR MS VLYS... ...ERN PLAINS TO THE MID-LWR MS VLY... POWERFUL UPPER JET /120+KT H25 JET AT KOAK/ WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CA/GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS KS. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD NEAR/N OF KANSAS CITY BY 00Z MON...THEN INTO NCNTRL IA BY 12Z MON. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NWD AND REACH AT LEAST CNTRL IA-CNTRL IL LINE BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ERN TX TOWARD THE MS RVR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE LOW/ COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTN INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY CAUSE A RELAXATION OF THE RETURN FLOW. AS PRESSURES FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE FLOW WILL TEND TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SLY EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS AND MS VLY. THIS RAPID MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR... LIMITING HEATING. NONETHELESS...MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG FROM EXTREME SRN IA TO AR BY LATE AFTN. INITIAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN KS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE OZARKS SWD INTO CNTRL AR AS THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR. THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP/EVOLVE NNEWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO CNTRL/NCNTRL IA BY 12Z MON. FARTHER E...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO IL...FAR W KY...WRN TN...NWRN MS BY EARLY MONDAY. PRESENCE OF 100+ KT SWLY H5 JET ATOP A 60+ KT SLY H85 JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. 2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS EXHIBIT ENOUGH OF A PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES THAT DISCRETE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BUT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...STORM MODE SHOULD MAINLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OZARKS WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY. THERE WILL BE A SEPARATE AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS IA...ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 11/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 06:38:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 01:38:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511270637.jAR6bEZB029827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270635 SWODY2 SPC AC 270634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE 7R4 MCB TUP BNA 45 SSW LOZ 25 SSW HSS AHN 10 WNW MCN VLD 55 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 20 WSW HEZ 55 S GLH MEM MDH BRL 45 NW LWD DNS 35 ESE BKX AXN ELO 40 NNE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS UCA BGM DCA RDU 55 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AND PARTS OF THE TN VLY.... ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROCEED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN BEGIN TO OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MERGE INTO CYCLONIC REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF RETROGRADING POLAR LOW IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BROADER SCALE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. BUT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT JET IS PROGGED TO NOSE THROUGH BASE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z MONDAY...BEFORE PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET CORE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY... STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AND THERMAL TROUGH STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO LAG TO THE NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE GULF STATES IS IN QUESTION. OF GREATER CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN RATHER MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE TO MAGNITUDES AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. BUT...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH AT LEAST WEAKLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEVELOPING NORTHWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION. FORCING MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AFTER DARK FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BEFORE BEGINNING TO SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT...ALONG WHICH STRONG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE BAND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FORECAST MAGNITUDE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /AOA 70 KT/...STABLE LAYER COULD BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SPORADIC DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ..KERR.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 27 17:36:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 27 Nov 2005 12:36:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511271735.jARHZMUo012375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271727 SWODY2 SPC AC 271726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 7R4 30 SE HEZ 15 WSW UOX 35 SSE PAH 25 NE MVN 40 W LUK 15 E LOZ 30 W AVL AHN 10 WNW MCN VLD 55 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 10 NE IER 35 SW LLQ 40 SE BVX 25 S FAM 35 W BRL 45 NW LWD DNS 35 ESE BKX AXN ELO 40 NNE GNA ...CONT... MSS UCA BGM DCA RDU 55 ESE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VLYS SWD TO THE GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG CYCLONE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY EARLY MON ACROSS THE CORN BELT THEN GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUE. BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY ON MON...AWAITING THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER JET STREAKS TO MIGRATE SEWD THROUGH TX. THIS IMPULSE AND THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY/UPPER MIDWEST MON. TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY 12Z TUE. ...GULF STATES AND TN VLY... STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...GRTLKS REGION AND OH VLY ON MON. BUT...AS THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LAGGING WITHIN SRN PARTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS EWD...THE GULF STATES AND TN VLY WILL RESIDE IN AN INTENSIFYING ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ H5 JET...BOOSTING LARGE SCALE UVV MON AFTN. MAINTENANCE OF A MODEST SLY LLJ WILL ADVECT THE MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS JUST OFFSHORE NOW...AS FAR N AS THE TN VLY BY MON AFTN. THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. BUT...MODEST HEATING AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE UVV WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM PARTS OF MS INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY MON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ORIENTATION OF THE 2-8KM MEAN WIND WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT A MIXED-MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE CELLS IS LIKELY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEVELOPING NORTHWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION WITH THE DAMAGING WIND/ISOLD TORNADO THREATS. FORCING MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AFTER DARK FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BEFORE BEGINNING TO SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...MIDWEST AND OH VLY... A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO THE WRN GULF STATES EARLY MON. STRONG DCVA AND STRONG DEEP SSWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY DURING THE DAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION. THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND...WRN/CNTRL KY BY LATE AFTN...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND COULD BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE BY THE CONVECTION...PRODUCING ISOLD AND SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS THE OH VLY WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST. FARTHER N...POTENTIAL FOR A SHALLOW-SURFACE STABLE LAYER MAY MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 11/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 06:49:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 01:49:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511280647.jAS6lfZM020017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280645 SWODY2 SPC AC 280644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE JAX AGS SPA MRB BWI 40 SE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BVE GZH TYS CAK 50 NNW ERI ...CONT... 50 NNW BTV GFL ALB 25 S PSF 45 E ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN... BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE U.S. WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IMPULSES COMPRISING LARGE SCALE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH ARE FORCED NORTHEASTWARD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES ACCELERATING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC... THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. WHILE REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ARE PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING...OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z TUESDAY...IS PROGGED NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLE WITH MAGNITUDE AND RATE OF PROGRESSION...FLOW IN BASE OF SOUTHERN IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG. MID-LEVEL JET CORE MAY REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 70-90 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS IT NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPPER FEATURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ...EAST COAST... COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP LAYER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SATURATED PRE-FRONTAL PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND PROVIDES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR OF UNCERTAIN SURFACE HEATING...NAM/NAM BKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. THIS IS FORECAST IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW....WITH RATHER LARGE...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. LOW-LEVEL PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS IT FINALLY SURGES INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE...SPREAD TOWARD COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 28 18:09:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 28 Nov 2005 13:09:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511281807.jASI7hX9031409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281728 SWODY2 SPC AC 281727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 25 NW SAV 20 NW CLT 15 WSW MRB 15 WSW BWI 25 E GSB 50 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSS 40 W ALB 30 NW EWR 45 E ACY ...CONT... 55 S PNS 25 S TOI 35 W TRI 35 N ZZV 60 N CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 S OLM 25 SSE SLE 40 E OTH 55 WNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S... BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST REGION WHERE 60S SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AS CYCLONE GRADUALLY FILLS AND WEAKENS NORTH OF THE BORDER. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HOWEVER MOVE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG...WILL EVOLVE WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK LAPSE RATE...YET STRONGLY SHEARED...ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/OR BE MAINTAINED ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THIS OCCURRENCE WILL BE INTERIOR SECTIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 11/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 05:47:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 00:47:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511290545.jAT5jv5P020556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290533 SWODY2 SPC AC 290532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 10 NE PSF 55 NE EFK ...CONT... 50 ESE CRE 45 NNE EWN 50 E ORF ...CONT... 55 WSW FMY 40 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...ARE BEGINNING TO SUPPORT NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CENTRAL U.S. CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. LATTER FEATURES ARE PROGGED INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND LIFT THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THEIR WAKE...MODELS SUGGEST POLAR LOW WILL TURN MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANITOBA. SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY 12Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL U.S. CYCLONE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL HAVE ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH ALL BUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z. STABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RISK OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WESTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...AHEAD OF PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...IS PROGGED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER COLD POOL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE IT SPREADS INLAND. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT...OR PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER INHIBITION WILL BECOME WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ..KERR.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 29 17:24:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 12:24:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511291722.jATHMlUS020106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291719 SWODY2 SPC AC 291718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE JFK 15 N BAF 10 NNW LCI 15 WSW AUG 50 SSW BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE AS SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA TO ADVECT NWD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB MAY YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. IT APPEARS CLOUD TOPS COULD ATTAIN LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION THUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND. ..DARROW.. 11/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 05:48:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 00:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511300547.jAU5lBW6026778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300544 SWODY2 SPC AC 300543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW HQM 20 ENE PDX 40 SE PDX 40 W RDM 30 ESE MFR 55 W EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO 15 E CRP PSX BPT 25 W 7R4 35 SSW HUM 60 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LATEST NAM/GFS AND NCEP SREF ALL INDICATE STRONG...LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY PHASING OF POLAR LOW...DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF HUDSON BAY...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED. BY 12Z THURSDAY...LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST POLAR LOW WILL LINGER UPSTREAM...OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MIGRATES OFF THE PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE... THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY...EXCEPT PERHAPS OREGON COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CASCADES LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING INLAND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...EAST OF THE ROCKIES... REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PERHAPS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ONE OTHER EXCEPTION COULD BE THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SHORES...WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING. ..KERR.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 30 17:28:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 12:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200511301727.jAUHRFxu025240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301725 SWODY2 SPC AC 301724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW HQM 25 W PDX 30 SE EUG 45 SW MFR 55 W EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... WELL DEFINED SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH SW ORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INLAND AROUND NOON WITH POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCT CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH NEAR THE MARINE LAYER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ...NWRN GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING AIRMASS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO GRADUALLY RETURN NWD TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE WEAKER THAN THE NAM SUGGESTS ACROSS THIS REGION. RESULTANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE THAT SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM