[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150609
SWODY2
SPC AC 150608

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
JAC 10 ESE BPI 45 ESE VEL 35 SW 4HV 45 S P38 20 NNW DRA 30 SSW TPH
45 SE NFL 60 S EKO 35 S BYI 20 W PIH 30 SSW JAC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
HOB 10 N DHT 55 S GLD 30 S IML 25 NNW MCK 40 NE HLC 30 S GAG 40 E
LBB 50 NNE HOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 10 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF 20 NNW ROW
35 ENE TAD 15 NNE ALS 45 ESE PGA 40 NNW IGM 45 N TRM 30 ENE OXR 35
SSW BFL 30 N BFL 30 NNW FAT 40 W SAC 50 E EKA 10 NNE MHS 30 WSW SVE
10 SSW SVE 35 S BKE 45 E PUW 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 20 W
BRD 45 WSW EAU 25 WNW DBQ 30 E LWD 25 NE FNB 35 SW EMP 25 NE OKC 25
NNW ADM 35 SE DAL 35 SSE BWD 40 WNW JCT 20 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS / THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WHILE FURTHER WEST A SECOND TROUGH -- TAKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME -- MOVES FROM THE W COAST EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES.  BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SHARP
RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH TIME.

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
INVOF THE ATLANTIC / GULF COASTS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THOUGH
NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FRONT --
INITIALLY ACROSS TX -- SHOULD WASH OUT DURING THE DAY...WITH BROAD
WARM ADVECTION REGIME FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
WRN U.S. TROUGH.

MEANWHILE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY
EWD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MT
/ WRN WY SWWD ACROSS NRN UT / SRN NV AT 17/00Z...AND THEN EWD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...GREAT BASIN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG /
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH.  MAIN QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/ INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF UT AND NV -- AND PERHAPS
NWD ACROSS SERN ID / SWRN WY -- WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT.

STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH...INCLUDING 40 TO 45 KTS SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB AND
65-80 KT SWLY MID / UPPER JET. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS -- BUT WITH FLOW ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  THOUGH LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY MARGINAL HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE LINES. THOUGH
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD TOWARD WRN CO AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS.

...WRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS..
DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MEAN-LAYER CAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG/.  CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRYLINE / LEE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY PASSAGE OF
WEAK LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER FEATURE.

THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER
RIDGE...20 KT WSWLY FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / WEAK ROTATION.  MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...WEAKENING AS CAP
RE-INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.