[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040644
SWODY2
SPC AC 040643

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
YKN 20 W FSD BKX 55 NW RWF 35 E BRD 25 ESE DLH 25 W IWD 35 S IWD 40
WSW RHI 25 SE EAU 20 NW MCW 25 SW SPW 40 E YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 55 SW SEM
10 NNW SEM 35 NW AUO 25 WNW MCN 30 S CAE 30 NE FLO 45 N RWI 30 SE
RIC 20 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ANJ 30 SSE OSH
25 SW DBQ 15 W STJ 25 NW END 60 SW SPS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 SW
DMN 35 N SVC 30 SW GUP 40 NE INW 15 NE FLG 30 S IGM 30 W EED 40 NNE
TRM 25 E CZZ ...CONT... 35 N ONP 30 S YKM 40 WNW MSO 25 NNE LWT 70
WNW MLS 55 N SHR 55 ESE RIW 20 NNW EGE 15 S 4FC 45 SSW BFF 50 SE MBG
15 E FAR 15 ENE INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...MN/WI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN MS VALLEY BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
REACHING NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MN AND ERN SD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ERN MN SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...NE NM/WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
AS SFC TEMPS WARM...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MOVING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE
MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

...FL...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN CNTRL FL SHOW MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
INSTABILITY ACROSS FL. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SFC HEATING
WOULD BE REDUCED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE VEERED. THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

..BROYLES.. 05/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.