From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 05:04:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 00:04:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505010515.j415FD3j008921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010513 SWODY2 SPC AC 010512 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW P07 35 NNW GDP 20 NNE PRC 50 ESE BIH 45 NE SCK 10 NW MHS 35 S EUG 20 N SLE 35 NE DLS 40 NW PDT 50 SSW S80 10 N BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA 50 N CDS 30 ENE SPS 45 S DAL 45 NW HOU 15 NE GLS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 25 SSE GNV 20 E JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NRN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST SOUTH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH...FROM SRN CA/NRN MEXICO..ACROSS THE PLAINS...TO FL. A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...IS FCST TO UNDERCUT MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND MOVE INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COLD SURGE...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SRN CO ATTM...WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SFC ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX DURING THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. ...TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND REGION OF TX... NAM IS LIKELY TOO SLOW WITH SSWWD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CRITICAL TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. WHILE UPSLOPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AHEAD THE BOUNDARY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A NARROW PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE FRONT...AND...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RESULT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED/POST FRONTAL TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS. IF NAM SCENARIO IS CORRECT...A MORE NWD PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE PECOS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY. STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HEATING OVERCOMES INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS BY EVENING. GREATER POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 16:48:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 11:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505011658.j41Gwxkt032500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011657 SWODY2 SPC AC 011656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SBY 40 W ILG 40 SE IPT 35 NNW MSV ALB 30 SW EEN ORH 25 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW P07 GDP PRC DRA 45 NE SCK MHS EUG PDX GEG 3TH 3DU 45 NNE BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA LTS SPS MWL 25 SW CLL 30 E PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GNV 35 SE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION...WITH ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BIG BEND REGION OF TX... A SECONDARY SURGE OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR WAS MOVING SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SWRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME SELY UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RETURN MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER DUE TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS/ WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT ALSO MAY BE ACCENTUATED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NV...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...WHILE DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STILL TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION/EVOLUTION FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...NJ NWD INTO SRN NY/CT... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ROTATING A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID/NRN ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM UPSTATE NY SWD INTO DELMARVA AT 18Z AND THEN SWEEP EWD TO LONG ISLAND/CT BY 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCAPES AOB 300 J/KG...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM MAY TRANSPORT STRONGER MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..IMY.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 05:50:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 00:50:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505020600.j4260HcP014351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020557 SWODY2 SPC AC 020556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 10 ENE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 45 SW BIL 30 ESE FCL 35 E LAA 35 ENE GAG 30 ESE OKC 15 NW PRX 20 SE LFK 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 35 S DMN 40 W SOW 45 SE SGU 55 SSE ELY 40 ENE U31 15 WSW U31 30 NW TPH 25 SE BIH 10 NE FAT 35 NE SCK 20 SSE RBL 45 ESE CEC 25 N EUG 45 NE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES... A BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN US DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ON THE SWRN END OF THE SFC HIGH...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM THE MTNS OF ERN NM EXTENDING SOUTH AND EWD ACROSS SW TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN WEST TX AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...MODEST INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM BY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S AND THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD HELP KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 17:06:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 12:06:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505021716.j42HGvqK021587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021714 SWODY2 SPC AC 021713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN FLG SGU 55 SSE ELY U31 65 SSE NFL BIH 30 N FAT RBL 45 ESE CEC EUG SLE PDX 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 35 NW CTB WRL CPR BFF BBW EAR 40 SSW HSI 35 NNW RSL 50 ENE LAA EHA CDS MWL 55 SSW TYR 40 ESE CLL 35 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS CONUS...WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF ERN CONUS TROUGH EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD. NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION WILL CROSS CONUS IN ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW STREAM THAT WILL EVOLVE FROM ERN HEIGHT RISES. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW MOVING ONSHORE CA -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS GREAT BASIN THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1...THEN FROM 4-CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME PHASED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING SWD ACROSS ERN MT. AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH WLY/NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. LARGE...SEASONALLY STRONG...CONTINENTAL/POLAR HIGH WILL DOMINATE REMAINDER CONUS E OF ROCKIES...WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. ...SW TX - RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SRN NM... LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN PLAINS AND NERN MEX -- ATOP SWRN FRINGE OF SLOWLY MODIFYING CONTINENTAL/POLAR BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THIS REGION...A PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY BASED ON SELY FLOW AND 8.5 DEG C DEW POINTS OBSERVED IN 850 MB ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BETWEEN BIG BEND AND LRD WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BREAK CAP...ESPECIALLY OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE OF NRN COAHUILA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD ME MAXIMIZED. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS BORDER WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM BIG BEND NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL NM...WITH BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 05:37:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 00:37:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505030547.j435ln2p023543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030546 SWODY2 SPC AC 030545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 50 NNE GTF 20 NNE LWT 25 NNE BIL 25 NNW WRL 50 NNW CPR 50 NW CDR 25 WNW 9V9 35 E ATY 45 WNW BRD 10 WSW INL ...CONT... 85 WNW ANJ 30 ENE MSN 15 S MLI 20 S IRK 30 SE MHK 45 NNW P28 30 ESE LBL 40 WSW GAG 25 WSW CSM 20 NNE ADM 15 NW PRX 35 SSW GGG 15 SSW BPT ...CONT... 45 SE DMN 30 W TCS 55 NNE SOW 25 WSW SGU 25 NNW DRA 25 WNW NID 10 WNW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 10 SSE ABY 30 WSW AGS 20 NW CLT 20 NE GSO 25 NNE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES... NAM AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHIFTING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PECOS REGION. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD DURING THE DAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER IN AREAS FARTHER WEST...FORECAST SOUNDING FOR WCNTRL TX SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS CELLS MATURE AND MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 17:31:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 12:31:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505031741.j43HfnCM025455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031740 SWODY2 SPC AC 031739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CTB LWT 10 S GCC 35 NNE CDR VTN 25 E 9V9 10 NNE INL ...CONT... MQT LNR OTM TOP HUT P28 30 NNW END MKO PGO GGG CLL VCT 35 ENE CRP ...CONT... 40 WSW ELP TCS 70 NNE INW SGU TPH 30 E BIH 25 WNW NID BFL PRB MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE AYS 30 WNW SAV CHS 55 S CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS -- WITH BLENDED NRN/SRN STREAM FLOW -- AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN NERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS STATES -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS EARLY IN PERIOD AND ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY BY 05/12Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APCHS FRONTAL ZONE NOW ESSENTIALLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON -- PRIMARILY ALONG SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...S OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING AND 70S F DEW POINTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG BETWEEN E AND W COAST SEA BREEZES. MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONSIDERABLE DISPARITIES REMAIN IN SHORT-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AS TO TIMING/LOCATION OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO PENINSULA. THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE IMPORTANT FOR ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED ALIGNMENTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ACROSS REGION -- AND RESULTANT INFLUENCES ON BOTH SEA BREEZE BEHAVIOR AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEARS. IN ANY EVENT...HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL SPEEDS SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE AND RESTRICT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ...SW TX/SRN NM AREA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM SRN NM SEWD ACROSS BIG BEND AND COAHUILA. GREATEST INSTABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER MEX MOUNTAINS W OF DRT/LRD AREA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AIR MASS CONTAINING MOST HIGHLY MODIFIED GULF TRAJECTORIES. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THAT MOISTENING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS. PRIND POCKETS OR SWATHS OF CLEARING WILL EXIST IN STRATUS DECK...BASED ON DAY TO DAY CLOUD TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING/MODIFICATIONS OF BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG AND W OF RIO GRANDE. SOME TSTMS MAY REACH BORDER WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING EVENING. FARTHER NW...WEAKER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND HIGH BASED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH ALSO MAY MOVE EWD OFF W TX/SRN NM MOUNTAINS. HAIL/GUSTS HEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 05:52:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 00:52:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505040602.j4462Bom027797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040559 SWODY2 SPC AC 040558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E YKN 20 W FSD BKX 55 NW RWF 35 E BRD 25 ESE DLH 25 W IWD 35 S IWD 40 WSW RHI 25 SE EAU 20 NW MCW 25 SW SPW 40 E YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 55 SW SEM 10 NNW SEM 35 NW AUO 25 WNW MCN 30 S CAE 30 NE FLO 45 N RWI 30 SE RIC 20 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ANJ 30 SSE OSH 25 SW DBQ 15 W STJ 25 NW END 60 SW SPS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 N SVC 30 SW GUP 40 NE INW 15 NE FLG 30 S IGM 30 W EED 40 NNE TRM 25 E CZZ ...CONT... 35 N ONP 30 S YKM 40 WNW MSO 25 NNE LWT 70 WNW MLS 55 N SHR 55 ESE RIW 20 NNW EGE 15 S 4FC 45 SSW BFF 50 SE MBG 15 E FAR 15 ENE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...MS/WI... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MN AND ERN SD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN MN SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NE NM/WEST TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN CNTRL FL SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY ACROSS FL. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SFC HEATING WOULD BE REDUCED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED. THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ..BROYLES.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 06:36:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 01:36:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505040646.j446kaef015655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040644 SWODY2 SPC AC 040643 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E YKN 20 W FSD BKX 55 NW RWF 35 E BRD 25 ESE DLH 25 W IWD 35 S IWD 40 WSW RHI 25 SE EAU 20 NW MCW 25 SW SPW 40 E YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 55 SW SEM 10 NNW SEM 35 NW AUO 25 WNW MCN 30 S CAE 30 NE FLO 45 N RWI 30 SE RIC 20 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ANJ 30 SSE OSH 25 SW DBQ 15 W STJ 25 NW END 60 SW SPS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 N SVC 30 SW GUP 40 NE INW 15 NE FLG 30 S IGM 30 W EED 40 NNE TRM 25 E CZZ ...CONT... 35 N ONP 30 S YKM 40 WNW MSO 25 NNE LWT 70 WNW MLS 55 N SHR 55 ESE RIW 20 NNW EGE 15 S 4FC 45 SSW BFF 50 SE MBG 15 E FAR 15 ENE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...MN/WI... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MN AND ERN SD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN MN SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NE NM/WEST TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN CNTRL FL SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY ACROSS FL. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SFC HEATING WOULD BE REDUCED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED. THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ..BROYLES.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 17:33:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 12:33:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505041743.j44HhcCU015431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041741 SWODY2 SPC AC 041740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE CTB HVR 80 WNW MLS SHR RWL 45 SW LAR FCL AIA PIR INL ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ PLN MTW CID FNB MHK ICT END MWL SEP HDO COT 45 S LRD ...CONT... ELP TCS INW FLG EED RAL 40 NE SBA 30 ENE SFO 40 WSW MHS EUG PDX 4OM 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB TCL 35 NNW BHM 25 NNE GAD RMG ATL MCN 45 S AGS FLO FAY RWI 35 E ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FCST AS ERN CANADIAN VORTEX WEAKENS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER SABINE RIVER REGION IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS INDUCING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ATTM OVER E-CENTRAL GULF -- ALONG QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND DELINEATE NRN BOUND OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES UNTIL PASSAGE OF DEEPENING FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE NEWD ACROSS PENINSULA...LIKELY THROUGH FIRST 6 HOURS OF PERIOD. NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER KANSAS CITY AREA -- WILL PIVOT EWD NEARLY IN PHASE WITH AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING ADDITIONALLY TO LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE GA/SC/NERN FL. GEN TSTMS MAY OCCUR IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR BUT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE GA/SC. MEANWHILE...12Z RAOB DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATE TWO SMALL NRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT OVER NRN AND SRN SASK. THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA...NRN MN AND ERN ND DURING DAY-2 PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MN BY AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF SFC FRONT -- SWWD TOWARD BLACK HILLS AREA...SHOULD STALL BY 06/00Z THEN RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT. HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE W COAST AND OVER PORTIONS GREAT BASIN BY END OF PERIOD...CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF WRN CONUS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER REGION...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL FL NEAR FRONT. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES IN AREA OF BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW - AHEAD OF SFC WAVE CYCLONE -- MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES. FCST HODOGRAPHS IN THAT REGIME SHOW LOOPINESS IN LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS 35-40 KT. ALTHOUGH TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LARGE COVERAGE OF PRECEDING CLOUD/PRECIP LIKELY...ACROSS AREA OF GREATEST PROGGED SHEAR...MAKES THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL TO EXTEND DAY-1 CATEGORICAL SGLT RISK INTO THIS PERIOD. AFTER WAVE CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE NERN FL COAST...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW AND SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF LOSS OF SUPPORTING SFC HEATING. SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON OR AFTER DARK -- E THROUGH NE OF SFC WAVE. LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH FRONTAL ACTIVITY. PRIND SFC MOISTURE RETURN FCST BY ETA IS TOO AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING TRAJECTORY ORIGINATION FROM GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY CONTINENTAL RIDGING AREA...AND 850 MB FLOW EMANATING FROM RAIN-COOLED AND RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AIR MASS NOW OVER W TX. RELATIVELY DRY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S/40S F...COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING...LEAD TO MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG AND HIGH STORM BASES IN MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION. ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS WELL...WITH SIMILAR BUOYANCY VALUES USING ELEVATED PARCELS. ...SRN PLAINS TO SRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/ EVENING FROM ERN MOUNTAINS OF NM EWD TO LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AS FLOW ALOFT VEERS...BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING OVER ERN NM. STRONG DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ENLARGED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS LIKELY OVER W-CENTRAL/NW TX...BUT IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON HEATING IMPOSED BY PRE-EXISTING CLOUDS/PRECIP. MEANWHILE FARTHER W...STRONGER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT...BUT WEAKER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED ON HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS...PRIND SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCALES BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 05:53:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 00:53:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505050603.j4563nJF028754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050601 SWODY2 SPC AC 050600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW GCK 20 SW GLD 25 W IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 20 NNW RAP 60 NNW PHP 25 ENE BKX 20 E OTG 35 SW DSM 30 NE STJ 30 NNE TOP 30 NE SLN 50 N DDC 50 NW GCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV 25 SSW FLO 50 NNE RDU 25 W NHK 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 40 SSE CTY SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX 20 SE VIH 25 SSW SGF 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... RRT 50 NNW IWD 10 N MQT 40 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN US TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL JET TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL TRANSPORT 55 TO 65 F SFC DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY NWD WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NEB OR SD FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z FRIDAY IN CNTRL NEB SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 00Z ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH STORMS SPREADING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SD. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO CREATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS... ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM. ...ERN NC/SE VA... A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DRIFT NNEWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS CONVECTION SPREADS NWD ACROSS ERN NC AND SE VA AROUND MIDDAY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE MOIST AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 16:53:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 11:53:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505051703.j45H3nrm029373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051700 SWODY2 SPC AC 051659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 15 SE REJ 35 E Y22 40 E ABR 20 E OTG 15 WSW FOD 50 ESE OMA 40 ESE LNK 35 SSW HSI MCK 15 NW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 10 E MLB ...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 30 SSE FAY 20 E GSB 35 WNW ECG 10 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX 20 ENE COU 25 N JLN 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 30 S GFK 30 WSW DLH 15 ESE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INTO SRN MN AND WRN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE W COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER ERN MT FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM E-CNTRL WY INTO ERN ND WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E BY 06/12Z BEFORE LIFTING NWD ACROSS SD AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SD/NEB INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA... INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SLY LLJ AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASINGLY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WRN/NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ALONG NOSE OF SWLY 45-55 KT LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...WRN KS INTO WRN TX... BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS SRN EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. LATEST RUN OF THE NAMKF DOES SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CAP TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GIVEN INITIATION...MODESTLY STRONG /30-40 KTS/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. ..MEAD.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 05:45:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 00:45:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505060555.j465tUHB022690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060553 SWODY2 SPC AC 060552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI STC MCW DSM 10 S TOP 10 S EMP PNC FSI BWD 35 NNW HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 FST LBB LBL 10 WSW LBF PHP REJ 35 ESE MLS 40 NW GDV 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW P07 10 SW FST LBB 65 NNE AMA 10 NE LBL 45 ENE GLD 10 WSW LBF 45 W VTN 35 WNW CDR 35 SW DGW 45 S RWL 20 N GUC 20 W DRO 40 SSW CEZ 25 WNW U28 40 S EVW 40 E WEY 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 115 N CMX 45 NW TVC 20 ESE MBS 10 NE YNG 30 NE SHD 45 S RIC 20 N RWI 25 N TRI 25 NNE LEX 15 W BMG 10 ENE SPI 40 SE SZL 30 WNW FSM 50 ENE DAL 50 SE AUS 50 WNW MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW TODAY AND TOWARD THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LEE-LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN TRAVEL EWD INTO ERN SD BY EARLY SUNDAY. A DRYLINE TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS AND WRN OK/TX BY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VLY REGION. THE FRONTS/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY/CORN BELT ALONG NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ENEWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO REDEVELOP WWD THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY... PRIMARILY SATURDAY MORNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MINIMAL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE. MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AS FAR N AS THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT IN ND. AS H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE FIRST ACROSS ND/ERN MT ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE CINH WILL BE LOWER THAN FARTHER S. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL SD SWD TO CNTRL KS AS CINH BEGINS TO ERODE OWING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GLANCE OFF THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER E...AND LIFT MORE NWD WITH TIME...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME DEEP SLY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY STORMS DEVELOP...CELLS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...THOUGH MARGINAL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL COULD RESULT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES...PRIMARILY OVER SWRN MN... CNTRL/SERN SD AND PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB. FARTHER N...MAINLY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VLY OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HIGH WINDS/HAIL...BUT AS THE STORMS MIGRATE BEYOND THE LLJ AXIS...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH. ...SRN PLAINS... FARTHER S...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS INTO W TX...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLD GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LESS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE THAN FARTHER N...AND GIVEN THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD RESULT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...BUT THE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE TIME STORMS MOVE INTO CNTRL/NERN OK AND NCNTRL TX. OVERNIGHT...TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD AND MORE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX AND MOVE EWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ...MID/UPPER OH VLY... A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES SWD FROM ONTARIO. KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO PERHAPS BACKBUILD NWWD INTO THE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E AXIS. STORMS WILL THEN HAVE A PROPENSITY TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AS THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE CONCRETE...AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS PSBL. ATTM...LOW PROBABILISTIC THREATS WILL SUFFICE. ..RACY.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 17:17:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 12:17:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505061727.j46HRJCg029894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061725 SWODY2 SPC AC 061724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI STC MCW DSM 10 S TOP 10 S EMP PNC 30 ESE FSI BWD 35 NNW HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 30 E FST 20 NE LBB 15 NE LBL 25 SSE LBF PHP REJ 35 ESE MLS 40 NW GDV 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 N CMX 45 NW TVC 20 ESE MBS 10 NE YNG 35 S MRB 10 NNE ECG 15 S OAJ 40 E CLT 35 WSW LEX 45 NE EVV 20 ENE ALN 15 NW TBN 30 WNW FSM 50 ENE DAL 50 SE AUS 50 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SSW P07 10 SW FST 15 NW LBB 45 N AMA 25 WNW LBL 10 ENE GLD 40 N IML 55 NE AIA 35 WNW CDR 35 SW DGW 45 S RWL 20 N GUC 20 W DRO 40 SSW CEZ 25 WNW U28 40 S EVW 40 E WEY 70 NW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE E...MERGING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT AT 07/12Z WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN SD WITH ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFYING FROM RED RIVER VALLEY SEWD TO THIS LOW...AND THEN WWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SWD THROUGH WRN KS...ERN TX PNHDL AND W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE NC COAST. ...DAKOTAS/NEB... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/IA...FOCUSED WITHIN WAA PATTERN ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS AS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO CNTRL NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEB WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND OVERALL SHORTER HODOGRAPH LENGTH NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE MULTICELLULAR WITH NWD EXTENT...THOUGH STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S...POSSIBLY INTO LOWER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WEAKER PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL APPROACH DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHEN COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIALLY LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THOUGH IT SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD 08/00Z...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... THOUGH AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL SATURDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKENING LATER SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 05:09:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 00:09:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505080519.j485JKdx015782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080517 SWODY2 SPC AC 080516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BMG 40 ENE MKL 15 NNW GWO 35 WSW PBF 35 WSW COU 25 ESE SPW 40 SSE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 NE DLH 25 NW AUW 20 WSW MSN 30 NE LAF 25 SSE BMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 20 WSW NIR 40 W ALI 45 S LRD ...CONT... 15 E DRT 45 ENE ABI 35 WSW OKC 10 SSE LBL 15 NW LHX 25 ESE GUC 20 SW U17 40 NNW IGM 10 NNE EDW 30 WNW SMX ...CONT... 45 ENE CTB 40 NNE BIL 40 NNE RAP 40 SSW MHN 30 SSW EAR 20 E BIE 25 SSE YKN 35 N HON 10 E JMS 85 WNW RRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 10 WNW HTS 40 ESE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD/WEAKEN AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER SD WILL MOVE INTO NERN MN BY MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND CNTRL PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL OSCILLATE OVER OK AND CNTRL TX...BUT BEGIN TO SURGE WWD AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN OVER THE WRN STATES MONDAY NIGHT. ...MS VLY/MIDWEST... CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE TSTMS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MS VLY/MIDWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MCS OR TWO SITUATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO THE MID-SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY A 30 KT SWLY LLJ. STRONGEST LLJ CORE SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. BIG QUESTION REMAINS IF ANY HEATING CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE OVERHEAD. ANY DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL...IND AND FAR W KY AS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CATEGORICAL SLGT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WELL...SO SEVERE TSTM THREAT LONGEVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL. UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO ERN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD DURING PEAK HEATING AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST. BUT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY POOR AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT. ...ERN OK...CNTRL/NERN TX EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY... H5 TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SABINE RVR VLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A MYRIAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING /DRYLINE-COLD FRONT-OUTFLOW-SEABREEZE/. SUSPECT THAT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A 5 PERCENT RISK OF AN ISOLD SEVERE TSTM. TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE SABINE AND LWR MS VLYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS THE MAIN LLJ TRANSLATES INTO THE MIDWEST. BUT... HEATING AND AT LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO LA AND PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS THROUGH EVENING. SHOULD STORMS FORM...STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD OFFSET WEAK SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISKS AND AWAIT LATER DATA FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES. ...GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXCESSIVE...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD AND MAGNITUDE OF PVA WILL SUPPORT LINES OF TSTMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 16:45:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 11:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505081654.j48GsoPN017195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081652 SWODY2 SPC AC 081651 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BMG 40 ENE MKL 15 ENE GWO 25 E HEZ 30 SSE SHV TYR 15 N DUA 40 SSW OJC 10 E P35 25 ESE SPW 40 SSE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 NE DLH 10 N AUW 30 SW OSH 30 NE LAF 25 SSE BMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 15 NNW SEP 40 E FSI 45 ESE ICT 35 NE MHK 40 ENE OLU 45 SSW MHE 30 ESE MBG 55 NE BIS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 N BIL 45 SE 81V 15 N AKO 25 WNW COS 20 S MTJ 20 SW U17 40 NNW IGM 10 NNE EDW 30 WNW SMX ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 10 WNW HTS 40 ESE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS THEY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM WRN MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE SWWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY RETREATS NWD IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS. MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EWD OR NEWD AWAY FROM STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST LATER MONDAY ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF MN/ERN IA INTO WI...IL AND MO. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR AS IT APPEARS THAT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY TEND TO RETARD THIS PROCESS. GIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND SOME CLOUD BREAKS...MLCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS OWING TO OVERALL WEAKENING OF TROUGH. NONETHELESS...SHOULD POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS/ARKLATEX... SRN EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED WAA TSTMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 09/12Z. SOME MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE W OF THE MS RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/ OVER THE SRN LOW PLAINS/ARKLATEX REGION BY AFTERNOON. SINCE AXIS OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE NEAR MS RIVER BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING...QUESTION IS WHETHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP ALONG STALLING COLD FRONT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER-SCALE FORCING. SHOULD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W... STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ARE FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT FROM NERN NV/ID EWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO WRN WY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 05:44:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 00:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505090554.j495sAPr031625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090552 SWODY2 SPC AC 090551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SNY 30 SSE DGW 55 SSW 81V 25 WNW 9V9 35 ESE BKX 15 SSW RST 25 NE DBQ 40 N PIA 40 E UIN 25 SSE IRK 50 W LWD 25 W LNK EAR 30 WNW MCK 25 SE SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC 20 E SLN 40 W HLC 35 SSE AKO 30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 10 W ART 35 WNW ELM 20 WNW AOO 35 N SSU 40 W GSO 25 WNW FLO 20 NNE SAV 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... THOUGH STILL BLOCKY...THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE WRN STATES...THE CNTRL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO THE GRTLKS...OH VLY AND SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NWD AGAIN ON TUESDAY. A CP AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE SWD FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT/MID-MS VLY... DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN UPPER LOW...LARGE SCALE RIDGING/MID-LEVEL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES/REDEVELOPS FROM SERN WY LEE-LOW EWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN. A MODERATELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO ERN WY IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER WY TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE TSTMS...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. IF CINH CAN BE OVERCOME ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY SURVIVE INTO WRN NEB AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN IA. ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AFTN TSTM INITIATION...BUT EXPECTED HEATING AND MASS CONVERGENCE LEND A HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BY LATE TUE AFTN FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. LCL/S WILL BE RATHER HIGH FOR TORNADOES...BUT AN ISOLD EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT...SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AOA 60 KTS...BLOWING NORMAL TO THE FRONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...SRN SD EWD TOWARD THE MS VLY. ...ERN GRT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES... CYCLONIC 60-KT H5 JET WILL ARC AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...LINES OF TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. LINE SEGMENTS COULD BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WIND SUCH THAT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:58:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:58:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505091708.j49H8Jwc006193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091706 SWODY2 SPC AC 091705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SNY 50 WNW BFF 65 WNW CDR 50 S PHP 30 S RWF 10 NE RST 25 S MKE 35 S CGX 15 ENE DEC 25 S UIN 35 WSW P35 BIE 20 SE MCK 40 SSW IML 20 W SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC SLN 40 WSW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 E SSI 40 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEB AND IA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD FROM CANADA DURING THE EVENING...WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED WITHIN THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEB/IA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO IA. STRONG 0-2 KM HELICITY IS FORECAST IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE GREATEST LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT DURING THE EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SWD SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND N OF SURFACE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MOSTLY ELEVATED AND SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 17:13:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 12:13:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505091722.j49HMtGi017758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091720 SWODY2 SPC AC 091720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SNY 50 WNW BFF 65 WNW CDR 50 S PHP 30 S RWF 10 NE RST 25 S MKE 35 S CGX 15 ENE DEC 25 S UIN 35 WSW P35 BIE 20 SE MCK 40 SSW IML 20 W SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC SLN 40 WSW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 E SSI 40 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... CORRECTED TO REPLACE WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY WITHIN THE TEXT BODY ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEB AND IA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD FROM CANADA DURING THE EVENING...WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED WITHIN THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEB/IA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO IA. STRONG 0-2 KM HELICITY IS FORECAST IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE GREATEST LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT DURING THE EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SWD SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MOSTLY ELEVATED AND SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 06:00:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 01:00:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505100609.j4A69jr1023316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100607 SWODY2 SPC AC 100606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GLD 20 WSW BBW 15 WNW ALO 15 ENE MLI 40 ENE UIN STJ 35 ENE ICT 30 SW LTS 50 N SJT 15 N MAF 40 S GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CAR 35 ESE MWN 25 E ISP ...CONT... 25 N PBI 35 S FMY ...CONT... 30 W PNS 25 E CBM 30 S STL 35 SW SZL 55 WNW MLC 60 NW AUS LRD ...CONT... 45 SSW MRF 25 N CVS 35 N CAO 30 SSE PUB 30 NNE ALS 35 SE FMN 25 SW PGA 40 WNW P38 35 NNE LOL 90 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 30 ESE IDA 40 NNE RKS 50 S DGW 60 W VTN 40 E ATY 20 S CWA 10 WSW HTL 90 E OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE WRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY EWD ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON WED WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH MIGRATES THROUGH SRN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT FROM SERN CANADA TO IA THEN WWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AFTN AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLS SWD IN WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK LOW VCNTY NWRN KS EARLY WED WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY EARLY THU...BUT THE MAIN TRIPLE POINT WILL REDEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION THROUGH WRN KS AND INTO THE TX PNHDL BY LATE WED EVENING. MAIN IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... TUE NIGHT MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER MS VLY WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. LARGE PORTION OF THIS MCS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY BACKS/ REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WED AFTN. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN U.S. TROUGH BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY WED AFTN...THOUGH WARM SECTOR MAY BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT...AS WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD COMBINED WITH EXPECTED STRONG HEATING...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NWRN KS INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA MID-LATE AFTN. STORMS WILL PROBABLY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WRN TX S PLAINS. MAJORITY OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD INTO W TX. FARTHER N...CELLS MAY FORM...THEN GET UNDERCUT BY THE ACCELERATING SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. BUT...ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL MCS AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO KS AND WRN OK. ISOLD CELLS SWD IN W TX SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...PALMER DIVIDE... DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE...A FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY DEVELOP WED AFTN/EVENING. H5 CYCLONIC JET OF 60-KTS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR HAILSTORMS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES. WILL CARRY LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE BUT NOT SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK SINCE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE COLD DOME WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY/SUFFICIENTLY TO ELIMINATE INSTABILITY QUICKLY. ...MIDWEST... THERE IS A SIGNAL IN A COUPLE OF THE 21Z SREF MEMBERS IN EVOLVING A MCV OUT OF THE UPPER MS VLY MCS WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD TRACK EWD...PROBABLY TOWARD SRN LWR MI. INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT IS APT TO SUPPORT STRONGER TSTMS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV THROUGH IND AND OH WED AFTN. THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK/ UNIDIRECTIONAL...DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORIENTED IN N-S LINE SEGMENTS. WILL INTRODUCE A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT AND LET LATER OUTLOOKS EVALUATE MODEL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK. ..RACY.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 17:51:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 12:51:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505101801.j4AI1O5m016316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101759 SWODY2 SPC AC 101757 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LBF 20 SSE BBW 25 W OLU 30 N OMA 30 W DSM 25 SW P35 FLV 25 E MHK 20 NW SLN 50 ENE DDC 20 NE GAG 45 WSW GAG 60 SSE EHA 25 E GLD 25 SSW LBF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GLD 45 WNW LBF 40 NNW BBW 10 W FOD 30 SW LNR MKE 20 SSE MKG 15 WSW FNT 30 NE ERI 20 ESE FKL 20 SE PIT 25 ESE CMH BMG 35 NNE SZL 10 WSW MKC 10 NNW EMP 30 SW LTS 45 NNW SJT 15 N MAF 25 NW LBB 40 S GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRF 25 N CVS 35 N CAO 30 SSE PUB 30 NNE ALS 35 SE FMN 25 SW PGA 40 WNW P38 35 NNE LOL 90 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 30 ESE IDA 40 NNE RKS 50 S DGW 60 W VTN 40 E ATY 20 S CWA 10 WSW HTL 90 E OSC ...CONT... 25 NW CAR 35 ESE MWN 25 E ISP ...CONT... 25 N PBI 35 S FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW PNS MEI 25 SSW GWO 50 N GLH 25 SSW POF 20 NE VIH 35 SW SZL 55 WNW MLC 60 NW AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE/MUCH OF WRN-NRN KS/SRN NEB TO SWRN IA/NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE WRN STATES UPPER LOW ATTM OVER SRN CA/SRN NV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ASSOCIATED 60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO WRN KS/NEB BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI WWD ACROSS IA/SRN NEB TO A LEE LOW OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD E AND SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH VALLEY...WHILE THE WRN PORTION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN ROCKIES TROUGH...BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO SRN/SERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS WRN KS TO WEST TX. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NWRN KS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO PORTION OF THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SEVERE STORMS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN IL. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB/IA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS IT REDEVELOPS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SLY LLJ INCREASING TO 40-50 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO WEST TX WILL BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL CAP. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AND EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. STRENGTHENING LLJ WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S ACROSS KS/NEB WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO. ...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... STRONG...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL. AIR MASS SOUTH AND EAST OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS MCS FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN LOWER MI/OH/WRN PA IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY SPREADS E/SE INTO THE AFTERNOON. 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT AND ENHANCED BY INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY N-S LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...WITH HAIL ALSO LIKELY FROM IL EWD. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ONGOING MCS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN OH AND REACH WRN PA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SRN GA INTO CENTRAL FL... 30 KT OF NWLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SEWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS AGAIN OVER SRN GA AND SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. IF SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 05:53:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 00:53:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505110602.j4B62o9B027812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110600 SWODY2 SPC AC 110600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 15 S HOB 25 WSW GCK 25 WSW GLD 40 N GLD 20 SSW HSI 10 E OMA 35 S FOD 25 NW CID 25 SSE DBQ 35 SW RFD 20 SSW MMO 20 SW BMI 45 WSW SPI 25 SSE SZL 50 SW JLN 60 E OKC 20 NW SPS 40 W BWD 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 SE LHX 20 WSW COS 35 N 4BL 55 W U24 45 SSE TWF 25 SSW MQM 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 S TVC 20 NE CLE HLG 15 SSW SHD 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ENE MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH THAT WILL MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS THU AND THU NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE... NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD RECENT ECMWF/GFS IN DEPICTING THE STRONGEST SURGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LWR MO VLY...KS AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THU AFTN BEFORE RESUMING A SEWD MOTION THU NITE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY SWD THROUGH W TX. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY THU ALONG THE NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTN. COOL OUTFLOW FROM THIS STORMS SHOULD REINFORCE THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL IL AND SRN IA. WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL LIKELY RETAIN MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS/FRONT BY AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IA TO CNTRL KS. SWLY H5 FLOW 60-65 KTS ATOP SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. GIVEN LARGELY PARALLEL COMPONENT OF THE MEAN SHEAR VECTORS ALONG THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE ENEWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CINH IS ERODED LATE THU AFTN FROM SWRN KS INTO WRN TX. STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE DRYLINE AND GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIST FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK/SWRN KS. TWO-8 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE MORE NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE LONGER THAN FARTHER N. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A MCS WILL PROBABLY FORM AFTER DARK AND MOVE THROUGH NWRN/CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS BY EARLY FRI. ...OH VLY... ISOLD STORMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE OH VLY. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE IN THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY RESULT WITH A FEW STORMS. CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY INCREASE AFTER DARK...ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE OH VLY. PINPOINTING A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT ATTM AND LOW PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE. ..RACY.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 17:38:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 12:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505111748.j4BHmAD3003105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111746 SWODY2 SPC AC 111745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 15 S HOB 25 W GCK 35 SW GLD 40 N GLD 15 SSW HSI 10 E OMA 35 S FOD 25 NW CID 25 SSE DBQ 35 SW RFD 20 SSW MMO 20 SW BMI 40 S UIN 30 NNW TBN 25 N FYV 15 ESE TUL 40 SSE OKC 10 WNW BWD 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 SE LHX 20 WSW COS 35 N 4BL 55 W U24 45 SSE TWF 25 SSW MQM 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 S TVC 20 NE CLE HLG 15 SSW SHD 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES WILL DE-AMPLIFY FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2 AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH NRN STREAM FLOW OVER CANADA. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER SRN NEB WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD SRN IA BY 13/00Z...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WRN TX WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD TO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE NEB SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STATIONARY...BUT RETREAT NWD OVER MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ELEVATED MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND NRN KS ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE LLJ WEAKENS/REDEVELOPS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AND NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET...TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN MS VALLEY...WILL AID IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS STORMS BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AND SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS CROSSING THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO SRN IA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD FAVOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THIS AREA. AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KT NOSING INTO NRN OK/SRN KS. THIS SUGGESTS UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD TOWARD WRN MO BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...MID MS/OH VALLEYS... MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SRN WV/SWRN VA WNWWD ACROSS KY TO SRN IL/SERN IA. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS. PINPOINTING A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT ATTM GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST OF LOW PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 05:27:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 00:27:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505120537.j4C5bGx4029111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120535 SWODY2 SPC AC 120534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BUF 25 NNW LBE 25 WNW HTS 20 SW EVV 30 NNE POF 30 NNE TXK 40 S DAL 45 NNW SAT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 25 WNW MAF 20 S CDS 35 NE GAG 20 WSW HUT 35 E STJ 40 SW RFD 35 S MKG 30 N MBS 100 ENE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 55 SSW LWS 65 WNW WMC 15 WSW RNO 30 WNW SAC 35 ESE CEC 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 55 S GLD 25 WSW OMA 35 SW ESC 20 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 15 SW BAF 25 SSW ABE 40 N SHD 45 S PSK 20 N FAY 35 W ILM 40 NE CHS 40 N SAV 50 E MCN 30 NNW MCN 20 WNW RMG 15 NNW HSV 30 S UOX 15 WSW ELD 20 SSE SAT LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL GRTLKS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POSITIVE-TILT OPEN WAVE TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGS SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE GRTLKS...MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO STEADILY MOVE SEWD...PROBABLY REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS...OH VLY...N TX LINE BY FRI EVENING. MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN IL EARLY FRI TO ONTARIO BY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS/OH VLY... A DIFFICULT FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NCEP ENSEMBLES/GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THEIR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THE PAST WEEK. THERE ARE APT TO BE SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-45 KT LLJ EARLY FRI FROM PARTS OF NRN OK NEWD TO LOWER MI. MAIN PART OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL GRTLKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG SRN EDGE OF MORNING ACTIVITY. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AS FAR N AS SERN LOWER MI...WITH SURFACE BASED STORM PROBABILITIES INCREASING THERE BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS...TSTMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES MIGHT ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW AND RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/UPPER OH VLY. FARTHER SW...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN LLJ WILL PEEL NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE THAT THE MODELS DEPICT MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. MOREOVER...LOCATION/INTENSITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALSO PLACE UNKNOWNS INTO THE MIX. PRIND THAT AS THE TAIL-END OF THE UPPER TROUGH/H5 SPEED MAX MOVES EWD ATOP A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...TSTMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NRN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS COULD FORM SWD ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX AS CINH IS ERASED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS MAY TEND TO GET UNDERCUT EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLES AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE OZARKS... ERN OK AND N TX...DURING THE NIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD INTO THE 20-25 KT SLY LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NWRN TX THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK AFTER DARK. FARTHER S...A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS W TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN A STORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT MAY BE COMPENSATED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUPERCELLS MAY RESULT. ..RACY.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 17:31:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 12:31:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505121741.j4CHfKWm030829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121737 SWODY2 SPC AC 121736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 25 WNW MAF 35 ESE PVW 65 WSW GAG 20 WSW HUT 35 E STJ 40 SW RFD 15 SSE MKG 30 N MBS 100 ENE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 25 NNW LBE 25 WNW HTS 20 SW EVV 30 NNE POF 30 NNE TXK 45 NE ACT 45 NNW SAT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 55 SSW LWS 65 WNW WMC 15 WSW RNO 30 WNW SAC 35 ESE CEC 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 55 S GLD 25 WSW OMA 35 SW ESC 20 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 15 SW BAF 25 SSW ABE 40 N SHD 45 S PSK 20 N FAY 35 W ILM 40 NE CHS 40 N SAV 50 E MCN 30 NNW MCN 20 WNW RMG 15 NNW HSV 30 S UOX 15 WSW ELD 20 SSE SAT LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS DAY 1 AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SPEED MAX DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER IA AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN OK TO SERN NM...WITH A DRY LINE THEN EXTENDING SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. EAST OF THE IA SURFACE LOW...A BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING SRN LOWER MI TO SRN NY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AS IT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. A STRONGER SURGE IN THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING E/SE AND REACHING A LINE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DAY 1 CONVECTION...AND TIMING OF DAY 2 SRN PLAINS CONVECTIVE INITIATION... THIS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NCEP ENSEMBLES/GFS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG AXIS OF A 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX TO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN PART OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO IL TO LOWER MI AND MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM MO TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD. A COUPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO SRN LOWER MI/NRN OH...AS ONE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI BY 14/00Z...AND A SECOND LOW INTENSIFIES FROM NERN MO TO NRN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS. FARTHER SW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM WRN MO SWWD TO WRN OK/NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COLD FRONT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORMS MAY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SSWLY LLJ ACROSS TX INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 05:56:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 00:56:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505130606.j4D66UQA025721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130604 SWODY2 SPC AC 130603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ROC 20 SE ELM 20 NNE CXY 45 SE LBE 15 WSW BKW 30 E CHA 10 SE HSV 35 SW MKL 25 NNE PAH 30 E IND 15 SSW TOL 50 NNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN 20 WNW ONM 35 SSW GNT 40 ESE INW 45 SSW PRC 30 S LAS 65 S NFL 10 N TVL 55 NW NID 35 NNW BFL 35 SSE UKI 10 SW EKA OTH 10 ESE OLM 25 WSW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE HVR 50 W GGW 65 ENE BIL 30 ENE WRL 50 SSW DGW 35 NNW GLD 15 S EHA 35 WNW CDS 15 NNW DUA 20 N PGO 30 SE TBN 35 NNW DNV 30 ESE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH / LOW -- INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE WRN UPPER LAKES / UPPER MS VALLEY -- WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES / OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY 60 TO 70 KT JET STREAK. FURTHER W...WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES THROUGH MEAN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO A SINGLE LOW CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD EXTEND WWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH / MID MS VALLEYS INTO TX INITIALLY...AND WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SECOND COLD SURGE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH INITIAL FRONT...AND EXTEND FROM ERN NY SWWD IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO CENTRAL TX. ...OH / TN VALLEY REGION... MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...LIKELY FROM PARTS OF ERN INDIANA / WRN OH SWWD ACROSS WRN KS / WRN TN. STORM INTENSITY / SEVERITY MAY BE MODULATED TO SOME DEGREE DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEGREE OF HEATING / INSTABILITY WHICH CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WSW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DESPITE POTENTIALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN KY NWD WHERE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE STRONGEST. SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SUFFICIENT VEERING IN AT VERY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ISOLATED / PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. HOWEVER...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARD A SQUALL LINE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PA / THE TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...WILL UPGRADE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO 25% -- THOUGH QUESTIONS DO PERSIST REGARDING ONGOING CONVECTION / POSSIBLY CONTAMINATED AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT. SHOULD CONVECTION BE LESS WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF FRONT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ALLOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ...SERN PA SWWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS... MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TROUGH MAY EVOLVE IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS ANTICIPATED. THOUGH REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT...CONVERGENCE ALONG POSSIBLE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS. ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP...SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN NC NWD. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY E OF THE APPALACHIANS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ...PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS OF TX INTO ERN NM... PERSISTENT ELY / SELY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT LOW LEVELS AS COLD FRONT SAGS SWD INTO TX. WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ANTICIPATED...UPSLOPE FLOW -- AND POSSIBLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT COLD FRONT -- SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX INTO ERN NM...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...AS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WITH THESE STORMS LIKELY DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL PROCESSES...CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 17:30:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 12:30:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505131739.j4DHdqDv006439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131737 SWODY2 SPC AC 131736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ART UCA 25 NE ABE 15 SSW PHL 25 WSW DOV 10 WNW DCA 45 W MRB 20 WSW BKW 30 E CHA 10 SE HSV 35 SW MKL 25 NNE PAH 30 E IND 15 ENE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E DUG 55 NW TCS 65 SW GNT 40 ESE INW 45 SSW PRC 30 S LAS 65 S NFL 10 N TVL 55 NW NID 35 NNW BFL 35 SSE UKI 10 SW EKA OTH 10 ESE OLM 25 WSW BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE HVR 50 W GGW 50 NNW SHR 50 E DGW 45 ESE CYS 35 NNW GLD 15 S EHA 35 WNW CDS 15 NNW DUA 20 N PGO 30 SE TBN 20 WSW SBN 10 SSW MTC ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CO...WILL PHASE WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATTM. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 70-80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/AXIS OF SWLY LLJ FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING E AND S WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY. ...OH/TN VALLEYS... CLOUDINESS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/ COMBINED WITH A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION FARTHER EAST INTO NY/PA...WITH ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS IN THE NEXT SECTION. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND LEAD TROUGH. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /75 KT AT 500 MB AND 40-50 KT AT 850 MB/ SUGGEST THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LINEAR. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS... REACHING WRN NY TO ERN TN BY 15/00Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FARTHER S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ORIENTED AT MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS IN ADVANCE OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS WOULD REQUIRE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST WIND FIELDS. ...PORTIONS OF NY/ERN PA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS... SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS TO MD/ERN PA AND SRN NY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR RE-INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER NY INTO ERN PA/MD. THUS...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE SLIGHT RISK. ...PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS OF TX INTO ERN NM... WRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY WITH MOIST ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT FROM SRN/SWRN TX INTO ERN NM. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK... ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK WLY MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX INTO ERN NM. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 06:02:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 01:02:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505150611.j4F6BqPo016176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150609 SWODY2 SPC AC 150608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW JAC 10 ESE BPI 45 ESE VEL 35 SW 4HV 45 S P38 20 NNW DRA 30 SSW TPH 45 SE NFL 60 S EKO 35 S BYI 20 W PIH 30 SSW JAC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HOB 10 N DHT 55 S GLD 30 S IML 25 NNW MCK 40 NE HLC 30 S GAG 40 E LBB 50 NNE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 10 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF 20 NNW ROW 35 ENE TAD 15 NNE ALS 45 ESE PGA 40 NNW IGM 45 N TRM 30 ENE OXR 35 SSW BFL 30 N BFL 30 NNW FAT 40 W SAC 50 E EKA 10 NNE MHS 30 WSW SVE 10 SSW SVE 35 S BKE 45 E PUW 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 20 W BRD 45 WSW EAU 25 WNW DBQ 30 E LWD 25 NE FNB 35 SW EMP 25 NE OKC 25 NNW ADM 35 SE DAL 35 SSE BWD 40 WNW JCT 20 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE FURTHER WEST A SECOND TROUGH -- TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME -- MOVES FROM THE W COAST EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SHARP RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH TIME. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF THE ATLANTIC / GULF COASTS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FRONT -- INITIALLY ACROSS TX -- SHOULD WASH OUT DURING THE DAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. MEANWHILE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MT / WRN WY SWWD ACROSS NRN UT / SRN NV AT 17/00Z...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG / NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH. MAIN QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF UT AND NV -- AND PERHAPS NWD ACROSS SERN ID / SWRN WY -- WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...INCLUDING 40 TO 45 KTS SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB AND 65-80 KT SWLY MID / UPPER JET. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS -- BUT WITH FLOW ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY MARGINAL HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE LINES. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD TOWARD WRN CO AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS. ...WRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MEAN-LAYER CAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG/. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE / LEE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY PASSAGE OF WEAK LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE...20 KT WSWLY FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / WEAK ROTATION. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...WEAKENING AS CAP RE-INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 05:13:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 00:13:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505160524.j4G5Of3u000785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160522 SWODY2 SPC AC 160521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE RAP 40 SSE MBG 25 NW HON 35 ENE YKN 35 ENE OLU 25 SW BIE 30 WNW HUT 30 NNW GAG 25 SSW LBL 50 NW GCK 25 SE SNY 25 NW AIA 25 S RAP 55 NNE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE MSP 10 SE OTM 45 NE SZL 45 SSW END ABI 15 NNE SJT 35 SSE MAF 45 NE HOB 30 W AMA 40 S LAA 15 NNE LHX PUB 30 NE ALS 50 E DRO 45 SSE 4BL 35 NW U17 50 SE EVW 35 SE RKS 35 N RKS 30 W COD 50 N BIL 55 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW HUM 35 S BTR 55 SE MEI 15 W ANB 40 NW AND 40 E HSS 25 SE RDU 45 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT WITH TIME THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG LOW / TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD-MOVING UPPER FEATURE. ...CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS... STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG / ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO SURFACE HIGH / RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SRN PLAINS OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT...WEAKER INSTABILITY / SHEAR FURTHER N...AND PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD / PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS WRN KS / NEB INTO THE SRN HALF OF SD. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE VERY STRONG FROM THE S...A COMPARATIVELY MODEST / COMPACT SSWLY 45 KT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. AS A RESULT...SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELD WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF SMALL-SCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION COULD EVOLVE. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT -- AIDED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...SERN U.S. / FL PENINSULA... MODELS SUGGEST ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS / GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF RESULTING CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE AIRMASS...AND UPON AMOUNT OF SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...AND PERHAPS A LOW-END / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER S ACROSS FL...MOIST / DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION INVOF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES -- WITH MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID / UPPER FLOW ON NRN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER / MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND LOCAL / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 17:31:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 12:31:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505161742.j4GHgOYk003467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161740 SWODY2 SPC AC 161739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DIK 20 ESE BIS 10 W ABR 35 ENE YKN 35 WNW OMA 30 SSW BIE 20 WNW HUT 30 NNW GAG 20 WSW LBL 35 ESE GLD 15 NNW IML 25 NW AIA 25 SE REJ 25 SE DIK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE MSP 10 N OTM 15 WNW SZL OKC ABI 15 NNE SJT 35 SSE MAF 45 NE HOB 50 WSW AMA 40 S LAA 15 NNE LHX PUB 10 E ALS 35 SSE DRO 60 SSW 4BL 35 NW U17 10 W PUC 35 SSW RKS LND 30 W COD 50 N BIL 20 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PSX 30 NW HOU 45 SW LFK 45 NE LFK 45 SW MLU 10 ESE MEI 25 NW AUO 40 NW AND 30 W GSO 30 NW RWI 30 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM KS INTO THE DAKOTAS. EARLY MORNING NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ND BY 00Z. THIS RETURN APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO SOUTH TX...AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AHEAD OF CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC EARLIEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...THUS HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BY 00Z/18TH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY 12Z. ...SERN U.S... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN U.S. PROVIDING LARGE SCALE UPPER VENTING FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH WEAK SFC RIDGING IS CURRENTLY WEDGED INTO THE FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SC FOR MORE FOCUSED UPDRAFTS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE FL PENINSULA. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND THUS LOW PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED. ..DARROW.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 05:22:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 00:22:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505170533.j4H5XOFV000642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170531 SWODY2 SPC AC 170529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ATY 30 SE STC 20 NNE CID 50 SSW UIN 10 SSE MLC 20 WNW SEP 15 SSW ABI 20 W CSM 40 W EMP 25 NE BIE 25 NE MHE 25 NE ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW GGW 75 ENE LWT 50 E WEY 60 WSW MLD 35 S OWY 45 ESE BNO 45 SSE DLS 35 NE EUG 45 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PFN 25 W DHN 30 E GWO 25 E PBF 45 WSW TYR 10 NNE JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 20 SSW BGS 50 ENE AMA 10 SSW CNK 15 ENE GRI 20 SSE ANW 40 SSE PHP 50 NNW PHP 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 50 NE ELO 30 WNW AUW 30 W MKE 30 SSE DAY 20 E HTS SSU 35 W SHD 50 NE EKN 20 SW AOO 25 N HGR 15 N BWI WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD INTO OK / N TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY THIS PERIOD THROUGH MEAN LONG-WAVE RIDGE POSITION ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM IA SWWD INTO OK / WRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW / TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN CONUS. FURTHER WEST...LARGE UPPER LOW / TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE W COAST...WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD SWLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NWRN U.S. / NRN ROCKIES. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS / OK INTO N TX... LARGELY NON-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF RISK AREA AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY / REDEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAKLY-DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AS LIMITED /25 TO 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE WARM SECTOR S OF UPPER FEATURE...MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...VA AND VICINITY... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD...BUT SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN PA / MD SWD TO NRN NC. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED /LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. HOWEVER...NWLY WIND PROFILES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO 40 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO ATTM. ..GOSS.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 17:37:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 12:37:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505171748.j4HHmTpf007822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171746 SWODY2 SPC AC 171745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW STC 30 ENE MSP 15 SSE DBQ 20 SSE UIN 25 NE FYV 20 WNW SEP 55 ENE BGS 25 E AMA 35 SE LBL 35 SW HUT 30 N MHK 25 SSE OMA 10 NE OTG 40 SW STC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N FCA 55 NNE 3DU 25 ENE MQM MLD 35 N ENV 40 NNW EKO 55 SSW BNO 60 ESE EUG 40 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ELO 30 NNW MBL 30 NE GRR 30 SSE DAY 25 NNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 30 SW EKN 40 ESE MGW 20 SW AOO 25 NNE HGR 20 E BWI 30 NE ORF ...CONT... 40 SSE MOB 40 N MOB 30 SSW GWO 20 W ELD 45 WSW TYR 10 NNE JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 25 WNW BGS 45 E CVS 15 SE DHT 10 WNW LBL 25 S RSL 40 E HSI 25 ENE YKN 20 WNW BKX 40 NW HON 35 NNE PHP 35 SW Y22 55 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN INTO NWRN TX... ...MN TO TX... NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM MN...ARCING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NRN OK. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A N-S BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION FROM MN INTO IA. THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...YET SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE AS LLJ BECOMES FOCUSED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TX...NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SWRN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN ALONG THIS ZONE ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC INITIALLY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY EXCEED 2500 J/KG. IT APPEARS ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... STRONG HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BANKED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF IT APPEARS FORCING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS...A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS REGION GIVEN THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ROTATING STORMS AND HAIL. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 05:34:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 00:34:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505180544.j4I5ik2t014027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180542 SWODY2 SPC AC 180541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MGW 30 SSE EKN 25 S BLF 30 NNW CHA 15 NNE HSV 15 S UOX 10 N TXK 40 N MWL 15 SW SPS 10 NE FSI 25 WSW TUL 25 SSW SZL 30 ENE UIN 10 E MLI JVL 35 S FDY 25 WSW MGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 10 NE LCH 45 ENE LFK 30 ESE ACT 30 S SEP 30 ENE SJT 45 SSE LBB 50 ENE AMA 50 S RSL 35 NE STJ 45 W DSM 20 NNE SUX 30 N ABR 35 S BIS 15 WSW Y22 40 SSW BFF 45 NNW PUC 35 S EKO 45 W BKE 50 WSW YKM 30 N OTH ...CONT... 10 NW INL 15 N OSH 15 S MKG 20 NE CLE 30 N LBE 35 NW MRB 10 NNW BWI 30 SE DOV ...CONT... 40 SE EWN 15 NNW FLO 45 ESE AGS 15 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS INTO THE OZARKS / ERN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MODEL FORECASTS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ALL MODELS ABANDONING THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM INVOF IA / SRN MN INTO THE WRN GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY NOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AS TO EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM...THOUGH SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER FEATURE WILL TAKE A MORE SELY PATH FROM SRN MN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. NAM IS THE FURTHEST E OF THE THREE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A DEEPER LOW OVER SERN OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER W WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND INDICATES A WEAKER LOW OVER ERN KY WITH A SECOND CENTER OVER SWRN TN. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST W WITH THE UPPER FEATURE...AND INDICATES NO SURFACE LOW OF CONSEQUENCE OVER THE TN / OH VALLEY REGION. ...OH / TN / MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE OZARKS / ERN OK... INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL EVOLUTIONS IS RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ATTM...IT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SEWD FROM MN INTO THE MIDWEST / LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MO AND OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG / AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO PARTS OF OK...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. ONGOING CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION FORECAST ATTM MAY LIMIT DOWNSTREAM HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE THIS REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL THREAT -- WOULD LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION SUGGESTS THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH NAMKF -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM AND GFS -- HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENTIALLY SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH AND INTO THE TN VALLEY REGIONS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A 15% SEVERE THREAT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD THIS SCENARIO BECOME MORE LIKELY. STORMS AND PERHAPS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION / INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... AS INDICATED ABOVE...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS CASTING A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF VA / NRN NC INVOF ERN EXTENSION OF OH VALLEY WARM FRONT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH AREA MAY REMAIN BENEATH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW / TROUGH...A FEW STRONG / POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AIDED BY MODERATE FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL / LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM THE W. ..GOSS.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 17:28:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 12:28:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505181739.j4IHdQU9022988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181736 SWODY2 SPC AC 181735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE RFD 20 SSW SBN 30 ESE FWA 25 ESE CMH 20 NE CRW 25 WNW HKY 35 NW AND 15 E GAD 35 WNW UOX 35 WSW HOT 40 SSW SPS 15 ESE CDS 15 E GAG 30 SSE ICT 15 SSW OJC 25 WSW IRK 35 E CID 10 ENE RFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 30 E CWA 15 S MKG 20 NE CLE 30 N LBE 35 NW MRB 10 NNW BWI 30 SE DOV ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 W POE 30 S GGG 45 SE DAL 30 E BWD 15 NE JCT 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 85 S MRF 80 S MRF 10 NNW CAO 20 NNW LAA 40 ESE GLD 25 ENE RSL 20 ENE FNB 20 W DSM 30 W MCW 45 N RWF 60 S FAR 10 W ABR 45 SSW PIR 50 WSW MHN 25 SE BFF 50 NW BFF 40 SSE CPR 25 SE RKS 45 ESE SLC 45 WNW ELY 45 SE NFL 45 ESE SVE 20 ESE BNO 30 WSW PDT 50 WSW YKM 30 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...OH/TN VALLEYS... EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING SOME DISCREPANCY IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. LATEST NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE UPPER LOW INTO SRN IL. THIS LATTER SOLUTION HAS MORE CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT AND THUS A SHARPER SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS KS/MO/IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 MCS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL...SWWD INTO ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID DAY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ALONG ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER 2000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL OR SEGMENTED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND/IL/KY/TN REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... FARTHER WEST...MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL EXIST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INTENSE ACROSS NWRN TX INTO EXTREME SWRN OK. THIS HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING MODIFIED OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...YET RELATIVELY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT FAVORS WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE OFF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...KS/MO/IL... SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL IL...WWD INTO KS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS KS...NOSING INTO NRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FRONTAL ZONE DROPS SWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 06:04:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 01:04:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505190615.j4J6FEGu026859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190612 SWODY2 SPC AC 190611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 25 ESE POE 35 NNW SHV 15 N PBF 25 NE UOX 25 S HSV 25 SSE ANB 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT 30 SE SEP 35 NE AMA 15 ESE LAA 45 W RTN 15 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 55 SE RKS 40 W VEL 30 SW DPG ENV 10 E PIH 20 SSE MQM 40 S 27U 50 N BOI 30 ENE BKE 20 SSW EPH 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 85 E ELO 25 ENE MSP 25 ESE SPW 25 NNW FNB 55 S OJC 30 N UNO 35 E MVN 25 S LAF 25 NNW CMH 25 WSW MGW 25 ESE EKN 10 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SINCE MAIN CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE E OF THIS AREA WHERE MODELS ARE MORE SIMILAR...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTS FOR THIS PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO THE DAY 3 FORECAST ISSUED 24 HOURS EARLIER. OVERALL...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER W...NOSE OF SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE FLATTENED WITH TIME...AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES IN BROAD BELT OF FAST / WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A CENTRAL APPALACHIANS / MID-ATLANTIC REGION LOW ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEY REGION. WITH TIME...THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS / TN VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST STATES / TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TROUGH / FRONT IN THE WEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN / SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SERN VA / CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST REGION / SERN U.S. AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MORE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING FRONT. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE NLY...FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED / SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST WITH TIME...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER WNWWD INTO TX / THE RED RIVER VALLEY...STRONGER CAPPING INVOF BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL / WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN ND / SD / WRN HALF OF NEB... DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...LIMITED NUMBER OF STORMS EXPECTED ATTM AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ONLY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 17:24:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 12:24:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505191735.j4JHZWO7012473@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191731 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE HUM 15 SW ESF 25 SW ELD 35 NNE ELD 15 WNW UOX 20 SW HSV 15 NE LGC 50 NE MGR VLD 40 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 ENE ATY 20 WSW HON 15 WNW PIR 55 NNE SHR 55 ENE BIL 90 WNW MLS 20 S OLF 15 SE MOT 80 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GLS 15 S SEP 70 SSE CDS 25 W EHA 10 SSW DEN 30 SE RKS 20 S PIH 65 NNE LMT 10 NNW 4BK ...CONT... 85 E ELO 25 ENE MSP 25 ESE SPW 15 NW FNB 45 S OJC 20 NE SGF 25 WSW MDH 30 S BMG 30 NE LUK 30 WSW MGW 30 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN US... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SERN US... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DAMPEN AND SHIFT SEWD INTO THE SERN US FRIDAY. A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM AR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN AL INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL AID INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN MS...AL AND GA. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MS AND AL SHOW VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE VEERED AND A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM SERN MT ACROSS ND. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS ND AND DEVELOP SWD INTO SD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN MT AND WRN ND. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW IN NW SD OR CNTRL ND WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BACKED. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 05:52:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 00:52:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505200602.j4K62rDX018335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200600 SWODY2 SPC AC 200559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E ELO 35 SSW IWD 10 NNW VOK 35 S MLI 20 E JEF 35 NW SGF 30 N PNC 10 ENE DDC 35 S MCK 15 SSW BUB 15 SSE MHE 55 NE ABR 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ART 20 WNW ALB 20 WSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE ORF 25 SSW SHD 30 WNW HLG 40 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 35 SW DHN 55 NW AYS 30 W CHS 35 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 40 NNW BEH 55 SSW BLV 20 SSW FSM 15 S FSI 35 NNW TCC 45 NNE ALS 25 WSW DEN 35 SSW ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 SSW JMS DIK 35 SSE OLF 50 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE NWRN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB AND NE CO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. TRAILING END OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH KS AND INTO NRN OK EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THESE STORMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF KS THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. FARTHER NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...LESS INSTABILITY IS LIKELY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE MCS AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN IN WAKE OF MCS AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO ERN NEB AND IA AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE...STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SWD INTO KS. PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. ...FL... SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG. STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF FL...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 17:24:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 12:24:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505201735.j4KHZKwP018241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201729 SWODY2 SPC AC 201727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE CMX 30 ESE AUW 15 E DBQ 30 WNW UIN 30 SW SZL 45 NNW BVO 20 E P28 15 NE DDC 55 SW HLC 35 SSE MCK 40 ENE BUB 25 W FSD 25 SSW FAR 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF 45 SW RIC 35 S SHD MGW 15 E YNG 25 NNE ERI ...CONT... 10 ENE MSS 35 SSE SLK 20 NE POU 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ANJ 35 N BEH 20 WSW SLO 15 SE UNO 25 NW PGO 25 ESE FSI 30 ESE AMA 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 15 SSW DEN 40 SSW ANW 20 ENE 9V9 40 NNW ABR 45 W JMS 25 SSW SDY 25 S OLF 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 35 SW DHN 55 NW AYS 30 WSW CHS 30 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS... ....UPPER MIDWEST... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AND CLOSE OFF ACROSS SRN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND IA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO MN...OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND LIKELY WEAKENING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLEARING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST IN WRN MN AND SE SD. STORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE UPPER-LOW ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN WITH STORMS REMAINING ISOLATED ACROSS ERN SD WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F AND RESULTANT SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN CNTRL AND NRN MN WHERE THE SHEAR AND LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH 65 TO 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SWD INTO KS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE IN ECNTRL NEB AND NW IA WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING SEWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NE KS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MODERATE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH KS AND NW MO. PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...FL... AN ERN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM COVERAGE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF SRN FL. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 05:52:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 00:52:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505210603.j4L63FqY004938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210600 SWODY2 SPC AC 210559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI 20 WSW HLG 15 SSW CRW 20 W HSS 20 W RMG 35 W CBM 15 WSW TXK 40 SW ADM 40 WNW OKC 20 WSW ICT 30 ESE SZL 15 SE SPI BEH 30 ESE MBL 10 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ROC PSB 15 NNW RIC 50 ESE EWN ...CONT... 30 E CHS 35 NNW ABY 50 N MOB 30 NNE POE 60 NNE ABI 45 SSW GAG 25 ENE DDC 40 NE MKC 35 NW PIA 35 W MKE 40 NW GRB 70 SSE DLH 30 E BJI 10 N RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE 4SL 25 WSW 4FC 20 SSW FCL 40 NNW LIC 40 ESE RTN 10 N CNM 45 SSE ALM 15 ESE TCS 35 NNE 4SL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 15 ESE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE SW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TURN SEWD AFTER CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THEN SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND KS. BY LATE SUNDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. ...CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM OK...SRN KS THROUGH SRN MO AND INTO AR. ONE OR MORE MCSS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KS INTO PARTS OF MO...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY OR NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. INITIATION BECOMES LESS LIKELY WITH WWD EXTENT INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE DUE TO STRONGER CAP. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN FROM OK AND KS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET CONTINUES SEWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE SE INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREAS... LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DUE TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING STORMS. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. THREAT FOR BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OROGRAPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE 40S IN ERN CO TO THE LOWER 50S OVER ERN NM ARE ANTICIPATED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG CAP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATED SLOW SSEWD STORM MOTION AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND WILL NOT LIKELY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 17:20:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 12:20:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505211730.j4LHUwc6005262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211728 SWODY2 SPC AC 211727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ERI PKB 20 SSE JKL 50 SE BNA 20 N TUP 20 SW PBF 30 NW PRX 15 E LTS 35 W CSM 10 E GAG 25 E P28 40 SW EMP 35 SW SZL 25 SE SPI 25 WNW SBN MKG 40 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 30 NNE ABY 55 ESE MEI 35 SSW MLU 15 W MWL 10 N LBB 35 WSW AMA 55 SSE EHA 20 NNW HUT MKC 40 WSW PIA 10 ESE RFD 25 SW OSH INL ...CONT... 35 NW ROC 45 SE BUF 25 WSW CXY 30 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ALM 15 S ALM 30 NNW ALM 35 ESE ASE 25 SSE 4FC 30 ESE DEN 25 SSW LIC 35 E RTN 30 ENE ROW 35 NW CNM 35 SE ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW FMY PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT REACHING SCNTRL MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK ON SUNDAY. ELEVATED STORMS LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MO. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS INITIATE. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF INITIATION AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAP AND WEAK ASCENT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LARGEST HAIL MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CANADA WILL OPEN AND DRIFT SEWD TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO IL AND IND DURING THE DAY. STORMS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. THE MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IS PARTIALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD AID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR POCKETS OF LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE. ...CO/NM... AS SFC TEMPS WARM SUNDAY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MTNS OF CO AND NM AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...ASCENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. THE BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK HEATING AS THE STORMS MATURE AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 06:19:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 01:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505220630.j4M6UOFK025316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220628 SWODY2 SPC AC 220627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GPT 50 ENE LFK 35 SW CDS 35 SSW CAO 25 S PUB 35 ESE DEN 25 SE BFF 20 WNW VTN 50 E ANW 30 SE BUB 20 N GCK END 35 SSE MKO 50 N GLH 25 NW TCL 40 ESE ATL 20 NE CAE 15 NW GSB 35 WSW ORF 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 25 SE SEP 35 ENE BGS 10 SE INK 40 NNW GDP 45 SW 4CR 30 E ABQ 30 SSW ALS 15 N 4FC 30 SE RKS 40 NNE BPI 35 NNW COD 45 W 4BQ 45 S P24 45 S JMS 30 NE MHE 20 ENE OLU 15 WNW SLN 30 WNW BVO 55 SSE HRO 35 SW MSL 35 E RMG 35 E SPA 30 E HKY 45 N HKY 30 SSW 5I3 30 W UNI 20 S CAK 20 SSW PSB 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN U.S. WWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES WHILE A TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE EAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TURN SE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SE U.S. MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SWWD THROUGH OK AND NERN NM EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH VA/ERN NC AND OFFSHORE BY EVENING...WITH TRAILING FRONT STRETCHING SWWD THROUGH SRN PART OF THE SERN STATES THEN NWWD INTO OK. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES... WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS EWD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. 40+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH 30-40 KT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME STORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...OK THROUGH NRN TX... SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OK OR NRN TX AND EXTEND WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF FRONT UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE MAKES CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH HEATING THE CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OR ALONG ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25 TO 30 KT WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY ELY OR SELY FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID LEVELS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NERN NM THROUGH ERN CO AND WRN KS AND NEB... LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD. THIS SHOULD ESTABLISH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WRN KS AND WRN NEB UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BY AFTERNOON MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST FOR 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM CO NEWD THROUGH NEB WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN MCS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 17:23:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 12:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505221733.j4MHXeBo030007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 30 NE BTR 55 ENE LFK 50 NW MWL 30 NNE TCC 25 WNW RTN 45 ENE ALS 15 E LAR 30 ESE DGW 55 WNW CDR 30 NNE CDR 60 E CDR 15 W MHN 25 ENE IML 50 SSE GLD 20 SE GCK 10 WNW END 40 NW PGO 20 SSW CBM 25 ENE LGC 45 W AGS 15 WSW FLO 25 WSW GSB 15 NW RWI 25 NE LYH CHO 50 SW DCA 10 SSE WAL ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 25 NNW GNV 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BVE 50 N BPT 20 SE SEP 45 ESE LBB 20 SE LBB 40 SW LBB 25 NW MAF 25 SSW INK 15 NE GDP 45 SW 4CR 25 NNE DRO 60 SW CAG 20 WSW RKS 30 S BPI 30 N BPI 40 W WRL 25 E 4BQ 25 SE Y22 40 N PIR 45 SSE 9V9 20 S EAR 25 ESE RSL 25 WNW BVO 50 SE HRO 30 SW MSL 30 NNW AHN 20 SW CLT 35 E HKY 45 SSW BLF 30 NNW 5I3 25 WNW UNI 20 NNW ZZV 20 NNW PIT 20 SW PSB 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTHEAST US AND ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING INTO ERN CO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE WITH 50F SFC DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO A RIDGE ALOFT...TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN INSTABILITY QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN ERN CO MONDAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY ABOVE 1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN CO SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN REACH THE MID 50S F AND A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX DRIFTS OVER THE RIDGE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS WRN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE OR INTO WRN OK DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SERN US/ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS AL AND GA MONDAY. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SWD REACHING THE COASTAL SECTIONS BY EVENING. SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND THE UPPER-LOW ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORECAST WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A LINE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND SRN SC. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS AR AND MS DURING THE DAY. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN AR BUT WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE CELLS SPREAD SEWD INTO LA AND SRN MS DURING THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 06:30:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 01:30:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505230641.j4N6fAkQ030783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230638 SWODY2 SPC AC 230637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BUB 40 ESE GRI 20 W TOP 15 E CNU 35 NNW FYV 30 SW MKO 25 NNW FSI 60 WSW GAG 45 N CAO 25 NNW COS 30 E CYS 20 WNW MHN 35 E BUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LCH 40 WNW TYR 60 NNW ABI 25 WSW SJT 40 S MAF 30 S HOB 25 SSW TCC 40 W TAD 20 E CAG 55 NNW RWL 45 SW GCC 25 SSE RAP 50 SW ABR 65 SSW FAR 25 NNW GFK 25 SE MOT GGW 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 55 N CMX 35 WNW EAU 25 SW MCW LWD 45 WNW TBN 45 N LIT 25 NNW JAN 40 WNW CEW 35 SW VLD 10 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SOP 25 WNW GSO 15 N BKW 20 WNW EKN 20 SW MRB 35 ESE CHO 35 W ECG 30 NW EWN 25 SSW GSB 10 NE SOP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF OK... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS OVER TOP OF SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN OK OR SRN KS FROM A LEE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS SWWD INTO SE WY EARLY TUESDAY AND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL CO BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH FL AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE SERN STATES. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH OK... AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF AND N OF THE FRONT FROM NRN OK THROUGH KS. PERSISTENT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN KS AND NEB WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM NEB THROUGH PARTS OF KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH KS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT INTO KS AND OK MAKES EVOLUTION OF EARLY ACTIVITY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST FARTHER W OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME BY LATE AFTERNOON. SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 3 KM WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY THROUGH ERN CO WRN KS AND WRN NEB. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND SPREAD SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO OK IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO EXPECTED STRONGER CAP. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...GENERALLY AOB 30 KT DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. ..DIAL.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:22:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:22:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505231732.j4NHWp2F005636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231730 SWODY2 SPC AC 231729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW VTN MHE 10 SSE SUX LNK BIE 20 W TOP 15 E CNU GWO 10 N LUL GPT 10 NNE HUM 10 WNW ESF TXK MLC OKC CDS 10 SE AMA 10 S EHA LIC 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 NNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO IWD 10 S CID LWD SZL JBR 10 SSW CBM 10 NW MGM 50 S AGS FLO SOP PSK 35 WNW SHD CHO 40 WSW ORF 30 E ECG ...CONT... 20 S BPT LFK 45 SSE DAL SEP 40 ESE JCT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSE DUG GNT 4BL PUC EVW COD 35 N SHR 10 W Y22 50 WSW P24 SDY 25 NNW LWT 30 E 3TH 25 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SLOW TO CHANGE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND IN BELT FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WITH SERIES OF AMPLIFIED PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...INCLUDING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING PERIPHERY OF EASTERN U.S. CIRCULATION WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ARE PROGGED TO BOTH BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CLOSED/LOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER FEATURES...ONE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES ...WHILE ANOTHER ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD LIKELY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES IN WEAKER STREAM OF FLOW ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN ROCKIES HIGH. ACCESS TO BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITH THIS STREAM...ON EDGE OF STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL FOCUS RELEASE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WEAKENING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS AT 12Z TUESDAY. AS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD...FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTERN STATES TROUGH LIKELY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK...MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...WEST CENTRAL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG INSOLATION AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF INITIATION...BUT BOTH LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THOUGH LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...EAST/ SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ONE OR MORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVENTUALLY EVOLVES. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA/ KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA.. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/ CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO EXIST WHERE CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR SEA BREEZE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE COULD BECOME FAIRLY LARGE /UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG/ ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN MODERATELY SHEARED CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 06:10:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 01:10:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505240620.j4O6KhP6002393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240618 SWODY2 SPC AC 240617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BGS 55 SSW CVS 70 ENE 4CR 20 SSE LVS 20 WNW RTN 25 N TAD 25 SE LHX 15 SSE LBL 30 SSW END 20 N MLC 20 ENE PRX TYR 45 ESE ACT 45 ESE BWD 40 NNW BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 25 WSW SDY 30 ESE DIK 35 WSW JMS 45 ENE JMS 65 W RRT ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 35 SW MBL 25 NNE PIA 30 SE SZL 55 N HOT 25 ESE MLU 25 SSE GPT ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 15 S AUS 35 W JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 W MRF 15 NW ALM 40 SSE DRO 20 SW ASE DEN 35 SSW GLD 55 S EAR 15 NNW SUX 15 SSE BKX 20 NNE HON 35 NW PHP 30 NNW GCC 20 SE BIL 45 SE GTF 30 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 20 NNW MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN SURGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN W TX NEWD THROUGH OK OR N TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD DURING THE DAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. ...SRN PLAINS... FORECAST IS COMPLICATED THIS PERIOD BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF POTENTIAL ONGOING MCSS AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION. THE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN KS OR NRN OK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HEATING S OF THE MCS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO NRN TX. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE W TX LEE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH W TX...NERN NM...AND SERN CO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED. EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE EARLY MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST THROUGH PARTS OF OK OR NRN TX AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND POSSIBLY SE CO WITHIN THE ELY UPSLOPE REGIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...BUT ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. ...CNTRL/NRN MN THROUGH NWRN WI... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH PARTS OF MN AND WI DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INITIALLY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION MAY OVERTAKE THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 17:24:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 12:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505241734.j4OHYSV4024140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241731 SWODY2 SPC AC 241730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SJT 20 W MAF 20 ESE 4CR 15 ENE SAF 45 E GUC 10 WSW DEN 45 NNE TCC 40 SE AMA CSM 25 E OKC 20 ENE PRX TXK POE 20 ESE CLL 25 WNW SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 45 SE FMY 45 SW AGR 15 N AGR 15 SSE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NNE CMX MQT LNR OTM MKC 15 NNE CNU 55 N HOT 25 ESE MLU 25 SSE GPT ...CONT... 35 SW GLS AUS HDO 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG TCS ABQ FMN CNY 25 NNW CDC 55 NW TPH 60 SSE TVL RBL MHS 80 WNW WMC ENV 30 SSE BPI 50 NNE LAR CDR 10 SE RAP 45 SSW REJ BIL 55 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 25 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES.... AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES WITH SERIES OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ...FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. EASTERNMOST OF THESE FEATURES...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...IS PROGGED BY MODELS T0 REDEVELOP OFFSHORE...EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EASTWARD ACCELERATION WILL AWAIT PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER IMPULSE AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST CENTRAL CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAKER BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU UPPER RIDGE INTO BASE OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME APPEAR LIKELY TO AGAIN PROVIDE FORCING FOR MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHRINK AS COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM BEGIN TO STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT. ...GULF STATES/FLORIDA... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTH OF EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CAPPING BENEATH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND LATEST GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR/NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE/FRONTAL ZONE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND SURFACE HEATING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FOR HAIL...BUT MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE ONGOING AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. SYSTEM LIKELY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND EXTENT OF STABILIZING INFLUENCE ON PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS UNCERTAIN. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG... SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ..KERR.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 06:10:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 01:10:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505250620.j4P6KSwX009905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250618 SWODY2 SPC AC 250617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SSE LRD ...CONT... 35 S DMN 55 W ONM 45 W 4SL DRO 30 SW GUC 60 ESE ASE PUB 15 NE RTN 20 N AMA 30 ESE CSM 15 E MLC 35 SE HRO 10 SW MVN 10 SSE DEC 30 NW UIN 20 WNW LWD 20 NW OFK 25 SSW HON 40 NE ATY 20 WNW AUW 25 SSE ESC 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 25 NW MGW 35 SE HTS 45 NNE CSV 40 NNE TUP SHV 35 WSW POE 10 W LFT 25 ESE MSY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE ERN STATES WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO TX BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. ...NM THROUGH TX... A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN OK OR NRN TX...SWWD THROUGH W TX AND INTO ERN NM EARLY THURSDAY. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS FAR W AS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SW TX AND SERN NM. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WILL EXIST FARTHER EAST S OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN TX. AN MCS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF W TX EWD THROUGH NRN OR CNTRL TX. S OF THE MCS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WITH MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST IF AN MCV EVOLVES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHTS STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX AND NM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK IN THESE AREAS ALSO DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE AND THIS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...MOSTLY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:32:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:32:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505251742.j4PHgF0Y010055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251725 SWODY2 SPC AC 251724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SSE LRD ...CONT... 45 SSW DMN GUP CEZ GJT 15 NNE CAG RWL RIW COD MLS 60 NE 4BQ Y22 ABR AXN 65 SW IWD 40 E CMX ...CONT... 20 SW BUF FKL CMH IND SPI FLV 30 S EAR MCK GLD 40 E LAA LBL END MLC 65 N LIT 10 SE POF HOP BNA MSL 15 SSE GWO 10 S MLU LUL 25 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EUG 45 E SLE 65 N 4LW 75 NW WMC EKO ELY TPH 25 W BIH 25 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 25 ESE EKA 30 NE 4BK EUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PIE 25 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... CENTER OF BROAD UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FROM AREAS OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COOLING/DRYING IN LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZING TRENDS OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WARMEST AIR MASS BY THURSDAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...BUT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION ...AND MUCH OF THE WEST...REMAINS RATHER DRY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH THE SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...FLORIDA... INHIBITION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO THURSDAY. WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE/WHEN CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZES. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PROPAGATION AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY... MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH/EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG AN EAST- WEST AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING. ANY HAIL LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT DRY...FAIRLY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 06:24:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 01:24:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505260634.j4Q6YgEp016883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260632 SWODY2 SPC AC 260631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CVS 15 NNW ROW 10 W 4CR 20 ENE SAF 35 E ALS 30 NNE TAD 50 SSE LHX 35 NNE TCC 40 S CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE UNI 30 W LUK 40 E SLO 15 SSW DEC 20 NE BMI 20 SSE SBN 10 SSE ARB 25 ESE MFD 15 NE UNI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 30 ESE CAE 20 E LGC 10 SE 0A8 HEZ 25 WNW ESF 45 NW LFT 35 SE LCH ...CONT... 65 SSW GBN 45 SE PHX 50 N SAD 25 NW ONM 15 NW 4SL 25 SE GUC 30 S DEN 40 ESE LIC 30 NW GCK 20 W P28 35 NNW BVO 40 SW EMP 20 SW TOP 35 NW SZL 35 ESE IRK 15 SE MLI 10 S MSN 55 NE EAU 45 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 20 E LEB 25 WNW BOS 20 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SRQ 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW 4OM 50 WSW PDT 60 SSE BNO 35 SSE OWY 40 N DPG U24 MLF 30 ESE TPH 40 ESE FAT 45 SSW MER 10 WSW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CANADA AS IT AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE ERN OH VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD IMPULSE AND EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME ERN OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND TX EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT OR TROUGH MAY ACCOMPANY THE SECONDARY UPSTREAM IMPULSE INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER FRIDAY. SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE LARGE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NWRN U.S. COAST BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. ...OH VALLEY AND SRN LOWER MI... MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE EARLY FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXPECTED. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20 C ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI. FORCING FOR ASCENT GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ABOVE MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NM THROUGH SERN CO... SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE SWD INTO TX THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM. ANY EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND SERN CO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL AND ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ABOVE ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NWRN U.S... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NWRN U.S. COAST WITH THE ETA BEING FASTER AND FARTHER N. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN OREGON AND CA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 17:23:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 12:23:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505261733.j4QHXCoX019820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261731 SWODY2 SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE INK GDP 25 N ALM 15 SSE SAF 45 N SAF 30 NW RTN CAO 40 NNW MAF 10 ENE INK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ART 15 ESE UCA 10 NNE TTN 10 NE NHK 10 SW BKW 40 WSW OWB 15 NNE CGI 35 W TBN 10 ENE OJC 15 ENE OTM CGX 20 N LAN 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 20 E LEB 25 WNW BOS 20 NE BID ...CONT... 15 NE ILM 40 SE CAE MCN AUO SEM 50 NE MOB 20 S MOB ...CONT... CZZ RAL 25 SSE BFL 30 NE PRB SCK UKI 15 SW EKA ...CONT... 25 SW BLI YKM BNO 10 WNW OWY 10 ESE ENV 15 SE U24 BCE 75 SSE U17 GUP DRO EGE 10 E FCL 40 NW IML ANW YKN 10 SSE OTG MSP RHI 85 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 10 ESE GNV 35 N GNV 20 E AYS SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY EWD INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AS WEAK UPPER JET AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. ...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...LWR GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS /500 MB TEMPS AOB -20C/. THOUGH SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL COLD SURGES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECLUDING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INSTABILITY BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL. DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL WEAK MID/UPPER PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REGIME WILL ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT PEAK INTENSITIES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST IN MOST ACTIVITY. ...FLORIDA... GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY. SHEAR LIKELY WILL BE WEAKER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED HAIL/DOWNBURSTS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AGAIN PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSL0PE FLOW BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...GREAT BASIN INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES... STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CASCADES. GIVEN A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 06:37:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 01:37:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505270648.j4R6m3aC007725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270646 SWODY2 SPC AC 270645 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JLN 35 SSE P28 45 WSW GAG 50 WSW AMA 45 NE ROW 40 SSE 4CR 30 E ONM 20 ESE COS LIC 35 NNW GLD 30 NNW CNK 15 SSE FNB 35 N SZL 50 N SGF JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W IPL 15 NW EED 50 WNW GUP 35 NNW 4SL 20 S 4FC 10 SSE LAR 45 NNW CYS 35 SE AIA 15 S OFK 20 WNW DSM 15 ENE BRL 25 ENE PIA 15 S RFD 25 N FRM 30 E HON 45 NNE ABR 80 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BLI 20 SE SEA 10 SSE DLS 40 ESE BNO 15 NW OWY 25 ENE EKO 15 WNW U31 40 E SAC 55 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 45 NW ORL 15 SE GNV 45 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE...COLD CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES WILL WEAKEN ON DAY 2 AS IT EVOLVES INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE NERN STATES. BAND OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY OVER WRN ND/ERN MT...WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE WEAKER IMPULSES TRANSLATE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS REGION. IN THE WEST...MEAN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SWRN STATES NWD TO WRN CANADA. IMPULSES EMANATING FROM BAJA AND MEXICO WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND ALSO ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FURTHER N...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND GENERAL LOCATION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NRN CA/ ORE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO TX IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ...NM/ERN CO EWD ACROSS KS TO WRN MO... MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NEWD ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH AND INTO KS TO WRN MO ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD AND EXTENDING FROM NERN NM TO WRN KS...AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN NM/ERN CO WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF AN E-W BOUNDARY OVER KS INTO WRN MO. HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS KS INTO FAR NRN OK AND WRN MO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX EWD TO GULF COAST/SERN STATES... MID TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO EXTEND ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE SERN STATES TO TX CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL SINCE THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH. THUS...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX AS ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER... MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW...THUS LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORM THREAT. PORTIONS OF TX MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...MID ATLANTIC... A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT REACHING CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN NC. THIS COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL. ...UPPER OH VALLEY/NERN STATES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ...FL... OLD MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO PER WV IMAGERY...IS PROGGED BY BOTH NAM/GFS TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA BY 29/00Z. AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. ...NRN CA INTO PORTIONS WRN OREGON... DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM NRN CA TO WRN ORE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 17:26:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:26:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505271736.j4RHavfJ022945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271732 SWODY2 SPC AC 271731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIA ALN 15 WNW VIH 15 ENE EMP 10 NNW GCK 60 ESE GLD EAR LNK OMA 20 WNW DSM 15 E CID PIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HKY 25 SSE DAN 45 W ECG 10 NE OAJ 50 N CHS AGS AHN AVL 30 NNE HKY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CNM MAF 10 SW SJT 35 ESE DRT P07 15 ESE MRF GDP CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RBL 30 SE CEC EUG RDM 30 SW BNO 75 NW WMC 25 NNE WMC 10 WSW U31 35 ENE TVL 50 SW SVE RBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BLI YKM 15 W PDT 10 WSW SUN LND LAR 10 WSW BFF 35 SE AIA OFK SPW RWF AXN 15 NNW IWD ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 E CZZ PMD 45 N FAT SAC 25 WNW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE TBN CNU BVO MKO PGO 20 NNE HOT 20 NW MEM 10 SE MKL OWB EVV MVN 30 WNW MDH 20 ESE TBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 40 SE GNV 20 S VLD 35 SW DHN 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SAT AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN AND EARLY EVE NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NRN SIERRA NEVADA.... WHILE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN STATES. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW WHICH EMANATED FROM MORE NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SYSTEM IS PROGGED INTO NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... SOUTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. IN WEAKER MORE SOUTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BROADER SCALE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINS VERY WARM...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY MINOR WIND/HAIL THREATS...BUT SEVERE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IN SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREAS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... SOUTH/EAST OF MANITOBA CLOSED LOW...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM ACCELERATING EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MODELS MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS KANSAS INTO CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS MISSOURI SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSES. STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREAT. PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS COMPARED TO AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. FURTHERMORE...FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWEST TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST...BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ...NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CASCADES... MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT... MODERATE FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 06:33:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 01:33:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505280643.j4S6hWxF011324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280641 SWODY2 SPC AC 280640 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW GAD 15 SW SEM 30 ENE MCB 30 WSW POE 50 SW LFK 15 ENE AUS 50 SSE BWD 30 E SEP 35 NNW MWL 40 E LBB 30 S CVS 50 SSW LVS 30 SSE ALS 45 NNE ALS 30 W COS 35 SSW GLD 20 SSW GCK 35 WSW ICT 20 SSE EMP 30 E MKC 15 SW IRK 20 NNW SPI 15 NNW MTO 30 E MDH 25 ENE POF 20 SW POF 10 ESE JBR 50 SSW BNA 30 WNW GAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 45 ESE LRD 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 WNW YUM 15 WSW EED 40 NNW BIH 45 NW TVL 60 NW UKI ...CONT... 65 NW FCA MSO 20 NNW WEY 20 NNW RIW 45 S DGW 35 S BFF 30 E IML 15 SE GRI 60 ENE OMA 30 SSW FOD 10 W FOD 45 NE BUB 35 ESE ANW 30 SW PHP 55 NE 4BQ 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV 35 NW BWI 30 NE SSU 30 NE HKY 20 ESE CLT 20 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN CO/NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED E-W ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD TO NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 1 WILL REMAIN ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS ON SUNDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE-STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE PACIFIC TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE...WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2 BREAKING DOWN THE SWRN STATES RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z MONDAY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE SERN STATES. GENERALLY WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SRN STREAM SHOULD ENHANCE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND FURTHER S ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION SATURDAY NIGHT TO 12Z SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2. ...ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... NAM/GFS/NAMKF AGREE THAT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG/N OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN OK SEWD TO CENTRAL MS/SRN AL AT 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EARLY MORNING TSTM CLUSTER EWD ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS...THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS UNCERTAIN. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN/ERN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY LOWER TN VALLEY. ...MID MS VALLEY WSWWD TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE SWRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO NWRN MO AND NRN KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE S/SE REACHING A LINE FROM ERN WI TO CENTRAL MO AND NRN OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO/CENTRAL IL. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS MOISTURE AXIS. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS MOST LIKELY IN A LINEAR MODE. FURTHER W...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN KS/NRN OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO INTO UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MAINLY MULTICELLS...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM. SEVERE THREAT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO/NERN NM MAY BE LONGER LIVED AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING OF AN ELY LLJ INTO THIS REGION. ...NRN UT... MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTED EWD ACROSS NRN UT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MULTICELLS AS MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES DEVELOP ACROSS NRN UT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 17:34:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 12:34:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505281744.j4SHic42026220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281739 SWODY2 SPC AC 281738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO 50 NW LRD 25 N DRT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 35 S CDS 45 E CVS 40 WSW TCC 35 SSW RTN TAD 45 SE LHX 30 NW GCK 25 NW RSL 30 SSE DSM 10 WNW BRL 45 SSE UIN 20 SSW JEF 15 NW JLN 10 S TUL 35 ENE MLC 45 WSW MEM 30 E CBM 20 E MGM 30 WSW DHN 15 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 25 ESE 3TH 20 NNW WEY 20 NNW RIW 45 S DGW 35 S BFF 25 NNW IML 25 N EAR 20 SSE OFK 20 S YKN 30 WSW MHE PIR 50 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF ...CONT... 25 WNW YUM 15 WSW EED 40 NNW BIH 45 NW TVL 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W WAL 30 NE CHO 35 E PKB 10 SSW UNI 35 W BLF 10 SW AVL 30 E AND 20 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES...AND AREAS NORTH FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... ABNORMALLY LOW UPPER HEIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SRN BRANCH NOW IN PLACE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE MORE PRODUCTIVE BRANCH...CONVECTIVE-WISE...WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AS HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST WSWLY FLOW. ...GULF COAST STATES... EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SLY BRANCH EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO...ACROSS SRN TX. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER TX. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES ENHANCING THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY FLOW. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE UPSTREAM FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH SCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND 70S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON AS 30-35KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST SOUTH TX WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE INHIBITION AND CREATING VERY UNSTABLE PROFILES AS MANY TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S. MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 3500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT EVOLVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS UNDERESTIMATED...AS SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS MODELS SAMPLE THIS FEATURE LATER THIS EVENING...MORE CONFIDENCE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MO... FARTHER NORTH...SWD PLUNGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ZONE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NRN MO...POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPPER TROUGH OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THAT WILL SHEAR ESEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THUS DIURNAL HEATING WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS ORE/NRN CA WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS NRN NV INTO UT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD ENABLE DEEP CONVECTION TO EASILY DEVELOP NORTH OF JET AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 06:34:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 01:34:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505290644.j4T6iYqd019069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290638 SWODY2 SPC AC 290637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW INK 30 SW ROW 50 SSE SAF 45 WNW RTN 30 WNW PUB 40 SE LIC 10 NE LAA 10 N DHT 20 WNW LBB 30 NE BGS 45 W BWD 35 ENE JCT 15 ENE HDO 25 NW COT 35 SE DRT 25 ENE P07 30 WNW INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW 40 SE PGA 45 W MLF 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 15 E WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR 10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW...NOW OVER NRN CA...WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NRN UT INTO CO ON MONDAY. FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTH...A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z MONDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE NWRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX... WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45-50 KT ACROSS ERN CO/ERN NM AS THE NRN UT TROUGH MOVES EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD FROM OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NM. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN NM TO NEAR DRT BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE MID 60S OVER SWRN TX WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS THE DRY LINE. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER SRN CO/ERN NM WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH MULTICELLS EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMMON SEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN TX INTO WRN KS MONDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO MCS/S TO DEVELOP ESEWD INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN TX MONDAY NIGHT. ...SRN TX NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO SERN STATES... BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING FROM SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN SEWD TO SERN GA AT 12Z MONDAY. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE GA PORTION MOVING NEWD INTO SC. SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS DIFFERENCE WHICH AFFECTS THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS RESULTED IN A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD TO THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ACROSS THESE AREAS. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...WHEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE OBVIOUS. ...OH VALLEY STATES... DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH...A BAND OF MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT/ SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN IA/IL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATED DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WITH THE SPEED OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/ COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 17:08:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 12:08:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505291718.j4THIIWA006728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291711 SWODY2 SPC AC 291710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 40 WSW INK 35 SSW ROW 50 SSE SAF 30 W PUB 20 N COS 30 SE DEN LIC 30 NNE LHX 15 E CAO 40 E CVS 40 S LBB 30 N SJT JCT 40 NW COT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW 40 N INW 35 NW GCN 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR 10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. ERN PORTIONS OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OH VLY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. BUT...UPSTREAM WRN PORTIONS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTN. ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A NUMBER OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...OWING TO A NUMBER OF RECENT COLD FRONTS DROPPING SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NERN UPPER LOW. ONE FRONT...VCNTY OH VLY...WILL BE REINFORCED MONDAY AFTN AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES DROPS SWD FROM THE GRTLKS. ANOTHER FRONT...DELINEATING NRN EDGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE DEEP S. LASTLY...LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... DIURNAL UPSLOPE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING GREAT BASIN H5 TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS ON THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. TSTMS WILL GROW ON THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS BY MID-DAY...WITH LIKELY PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT ON THE PALMER DIVIDE/RATON MESA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS 50-60 KT MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION BY LATE-AFTN. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW STABLE THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE GIVEN MORNING LOW-CLOUDS/FOG. BUT...IF SUFFICIENT RECOVERY CAN OCCUR...TSTMS MAY ROOT/DEVELOP INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES ADDED THREATS. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. FARTHER S...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SERN NM/FAR W TX. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE WEAKER HERE...BUT NWLY COMPONENT ATOP SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD THAN FARTHER N ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO. ISOLD THREAT WILL PRECLUDE SLGT RISK ATTM. ...OH VLY TO SRN MID-ATLANTIC... FAST WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED GRTLKS UPPER LOW. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION COULD INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VLY JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID-DAY MONDAY. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ALIGNED NORMAL TO THE SHEAR VECTORS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING AT SUNSET. ...DEEP S... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE DEEP S MONDAY AS THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HEAVY RNFL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...IF ANY AREA CAN RECEIVE SUN...STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY RESULT AND ISOLD DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD OCCUR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...BUT A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED. ..RACY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 06:20:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 01:20:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505300630.j4U6USCG012312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300628 SWODY2 SPC AC 300627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SJT 30 SE MAF 45 E HOB 30 E TCC 15 NNE RTN 25 S PUB 20 SE COS 45 ENE LAA EHA 40 W GAG 40 NE CSM FSI 15 WSW MWL 50 S BWD 45 S SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE 7R4 15 SSW MCB 40 SSE GWO 20 SSE CBM 20 NNW LGC 40 E MCN 30 WSW AYS 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 10 SSE CNM 35 ENE 4CR 20 SW FMN 25 SW 4HV 20 W ELY 45 SSE TVL 25 SW SAC 40 NNE UKI 15 NW MFR 45 NW DLS 60 E BLI ...CONT... 35 W INL 30 E MCW 30 SE IRK 40 SW STL 25 SSE SDF SSU 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 30 W CXY 25 NNW YNG 40 SE MTC 30 SE OSC ...CONT... 70 WNW CAR 25 WNW AUG 20 SSE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS SERN CO TO PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE NWRN STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THESE TROUGHS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO TX. FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO WRN/CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK... NAM/GFS/NAMKF AGREE THAT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF A MCS...SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AT 12Z TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OK. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WRN MOST PORTION OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NWRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DRY LINE MIXING EWD AND EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX NEAR SJT AND NE OF DRT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH 30-35 OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NWWD INTO CO AND SERN WY...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PROGGED TO EXTEND INTO SERN CO. ONE OR TWO MCS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND MOVE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS/OK AND INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL TX. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS FROM DAY 1 THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INLAND OVER THIS REGION ON TUESDAY. THE GFS DOES SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY AREAS THAT CAN RECEIVE SOME SUN/STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 17:29:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 12:29:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505301739.j4UHdSaq002142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301737 SWODY2 SPC AC 301736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AUS 40 WSW SJT 45 E HOB 30 E TCC 25 E RTN 25 S LHX 35 NW EHA 30 NE EHA 25 ESE LBL 35 E DDC ICT BVO 30 NNW PRX 60 SW TYR 15 NNW AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 15 SSW MCB LUL 25 W SEM CSG 20 NE SSI 30 SE JAX 15 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 30 ESE EEN BID ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 25 S CXY 10 SW PSB 15 NW DUJ 40 NW JHW ...CONT... 45 WNW RRT 20 WSW OTG 40 WSW JEF 55 NNW POF 40 SE BNA 25 S CLT 25 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 10 SSE CNM 40 S LVS 35 ESE GUC 35 W CAG 40 N EVW 40 NNE EKO 65 SE 4LW 15 NNW 4LW 50 NNW BNO 15 SSE ALW 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SRN GA AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH BROKE OFF FROM ELONGATED VORTEX OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES LATE SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EWD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... MODELS STRETCH PVA FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/NAM-KF INDICATE VERY STRONG SIGNAL ENHANCING UVVS OVER SERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE MOVING IT SEWD ALONG/JUST S OF THE OK/TX RED RIVER TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LOCATED IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL SRN BRANCH NEAR 90 KT INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WHERE DEW POINTS AT 850 MB ARE 10-16C. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE FORECAST AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5C/KM. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN AND N CENTRAL TX...POSSIBLY SRN OK...TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SCENARIO SPELLS BOW ECHO/DERECHO TYPE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-50 KT IS FORECAST FROM NERN KS NWD INTO ERN ND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ENEWD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST INTO ERN KS...BUT SOURCE REGION OF LOW LEVEL AIR NORTH OF THIS AREA IS AROUND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST EWD ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL... REMNANTS OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE PERIOD. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM...HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 06:16:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 01:16:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505310625.j4V6Prml026451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310621 SWODY2 SPC AC 310621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 55 SSW ALI 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 NW DRT 65 NE P07 25 E MAF 50 SSE LBB 65 NNW ABI 20 NW MWL 45 S DAL 55 SW TYR 10 S LFK 35 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S P07 35 W INK 60 ENE 4CR 35 E ALS 30 WNW COS EGE 20 ENE U28 50 NNE P38 10 SSW TPH 35 NE MER 10 SW SAC 20 SE RBL 65 NNW SVE 90 NNW WMC 70 ESE BNO 30 WSW BKE 40 E DLS 40 W YKM 15 SW OLM 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... HUL 25 WNW AUG BDL 10 SW EWR 15 NW DOV 20 WNW DCA 50 ENE EKN 30 SSW CAK 15 ENE DAY 20 NNE LEX 20 WNW HSS 25 NNW SOP 20 SW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... GIVEN STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO/ QUEBEC...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO AS HEIGHTS FALL UPSTREAM OVER THE WRN STATES AS LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE WEST. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. ...CENTRAL AND SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA... THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA WILL DEPEND UPON THE EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF DAY 1. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SERN TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH THE GFS INDICATING EVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT 30-35 KT OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS...ONCE THE LOCATION OF GREATEST RISK CAN BE DETERMINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE... A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWD ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SWD EXTENTION OF CONVECTION INTO IA/MO AND ERN OK TO AR. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS FAR NORTH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL LOCALLY APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES. FARTHER S ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB TO NRN TX...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ...FL TO SERN GA/ERN SC/SERN NC... 30-35 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GULF NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE SERN STATES. MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WEAK UPPER FORCING...A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 17:36:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 12:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505311746.j4VHk9nr024466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311742 SWODY2 SPC AC 311741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ANW 35 NNW MHN 40 E CDR 15 N RAP 35 WSW Y22 25 S P24 45 ENE MOT 65 NE DVL 40 NNW TVF 10 NW BJI 30 ENE AXN 45 NE BKX 25 ENE ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BRO 55 N MFE 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE P07 50 ESE FST 25 SSE MAF 20 N BGS 25 NW ABI 30 NNE BWD 20 NW TPL 25 W CLL 40 NW HOU GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 35 WNW PBI 45 ESE FMY 40 S FMY ...CONT... 25 SSE TLH 15 WNW VLD 25 NNW AYS 20 W SAV 45 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 WNW AUG 10 NW ORH 15 NE EWR 20 SE PHL 15 E BWI 20 W HGR 20 N CAK 40 SE FWA 15 SSE SDF TYS 35 S GSO 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 35 W INK 65 WSW TCC 15 WNW TAD 45 W COS 35 N MTJ 10 NNE 4HV 50 NNE P38 10 SSW TPH 35 NE MER 10 SW SAC 20 SE RBL 65 NNW SVE 90 NNW WMC 70 ESE BNO 30 WSW BKE 40 E DLS 40 W YKM 15 SW OLM 20 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND S TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND NRN FL INTO SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW U.S.. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. NRN EXTENTION OF UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER AZ AND NM...SHIFTING EWD INTO PARTS OF TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN GULF WILL LIFT NWD. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER AL EWD THROUGH SRN GA AND SC. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH WRN MN... THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW FROM ERN MT SEWD THROUGH SD SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH ND AND INTO SRN CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CONVECTION. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM -14 TO -16C AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SPEED MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE DAKOTAS BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX... THREAT IN THIS AREA APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL. AN MCS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR SRN TX WITH AN ONGOING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW MAKES CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...CNTRL FL THROUGH SRN GA... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST OVER FL AND SRN GA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ENEWD WITH THE SRN EXTENTION OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NRN FL DURING THE DAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FL INTO GA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL INTO SRN GA WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST. ..DIAL.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 05:04:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 00:04:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505010515.j415FD3j008921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010513 SWODY2 SPC AC 010512 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW P07 35 NNW GDP 20 NNE PRC 50 ESE BIH 45 NE SCK 10 NW MHS 35 S EUG 20 N SLE 35 NE DLS 40 NW PDT 50 SSW S80 10 N BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA 50 N CDS 30 ENE SPS 45 S DAL 45 NW HOU 15 NE GLS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 25 SSE GNV 20 E JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT OF STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM NRN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST SOUTH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH...FROM SRN CA/NRN MEXICO..ACROSS THE PLAINS...TO FL. A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...IS FCST TO UNDERCUT MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND MOVE INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. COLD SURGE...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SRN CO ATTM...WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SFC ANTICYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX DURING THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. ...TRANS PECOS/BIG BEND REGION OF TX... NAM IS LIKELY TOO SLOW WITH SSWWD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CRITICAL TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. WHILE UPSLOPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AHEAD THE BOUNDARY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A NARROW PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE FRONT...AND...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...RESULT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED/POST FRONTAL TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HAIL EVENTS. IF NAM SCENARIO IS CORRECT...A MORE NWD PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE PECOS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY. STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HEATING OVERCOMES INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS BY EVENING. GREATER POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 16:48:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 11:48:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505011658.j41Gwxkt032500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011657 SWODY2 SPC AC 011656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SBY 40 W ILG 40 SE IPT 35 NNW MSV ALB 30 SW EEN ORH 25 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW P07 GDP PRC DRA 45 NE SCK MHS EUG PDX GEG 3TH 3DU 45 NNE BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA LTS SPS MWL 25 SW CLL 30 E PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GNV 35 SE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION...WITH ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BIG BEND REGION OF TX... A SECONDARY SURGE OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR WAS MOVING SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SWRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME SELY UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RETURN MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER DUE TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS/ WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT ALSO MAY BE ACCENTUATED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NV...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...WHILE DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STILL TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION/EVOLUTION FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...NJ NWD INTO SRN NY/CT... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ROTATING A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID/NRN ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM UPSTATE NY SWD INTO DELMARVA AT 18Z AND THEN SWEEP EWD TO LONG ISLAND/CT BY 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCAPES AOB 300 J/KG...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM MAY TRANSPORT STRONGER MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..IMY.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 05:50:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 00:50:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505020600.j4260HcP014351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020557 SWODY2 SPC AC 020556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 10 ENE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 45 SW BIL 30 ESE FCL 35 E LAA 35 ENE GAG 30 ESE OKC 15 NW PRX 20 SE LFK 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 35 S DMN 40 W SOW 45 SE SGU 55 SSE ELY 40 ENE U31 15 WSW U31 30 NW TPH 25 SE BIH 10 NE FAT 35 NE SCK 20 SSE RBL 45 ESE CEC 25 N EUG 45 NE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES... A BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN US DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ON THE SWRN END OF THE SFC HIGH...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM THE MTNS OF ERN NM EXTENDING SOUTH AND EWD ACROSS SW TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN WEST TX AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...MODEST INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM BY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S AND THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD HELP KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 17:06:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 12:06:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505021716.j42HGvqK021587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021714 SWODY2 SPC AC 021713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN FLG SGU 55 SSE ELY U31 65 SSE NFL BIH 30 N FAT RBL 45 ESE CEC EUG SLE PDX 55 NW 63S ...CONT... 35 NW CTB WRL CPR BFF BBW EAR 40 SSW HSI 35 NNW RSL 50 ENE LAA EHA CDS MWL 55 SSW TYR 40 ESE CLL 35 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS CONUS...WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF ERN CONUS TROUGH EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD. NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION WILL CROSS CONUS IN ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW STREAM THAT WILL EVOLVE FROM ERN HEIGHT RISES. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW MOVING ONSHORE CA -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS GREAT BASIN THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1...THEN FROM 4-CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME PHASED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING SWD ACROSS ERN MT. AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH WLY/NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. LARGE...SEASONALLY STRONG...CONTINENTAL/POLAR HIGH WILL DOMINATE REMAINDER CONUS E OF ROCKIES...WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. ...SW TX - RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SRN NM... LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN PLAINS AND NERN MEX -- ATOP SWRN FRINGE OF SLOWLY MODIFYING CONTINENTAL/POLAR BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THIS REGION...A PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY BASED ON SELY FLOW AND 8.5 DEG C DEW POINTS OBSERVED IN 850 MB ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BETWEEN BIG BEND AND LRD WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BREAK CAP...ESPECIALLY OVER SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE OF NRN COAHUILA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD ME MAXIMIZED. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS BORDER WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM BIG BEND NWWD INTO S-CENTRAL NM...WITH BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 05:37:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 00:37:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505030547.j435ln2p023543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030546 SWODY2 SPC AC 030545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 50 NNE GTF 20 NNE LWT 25 NNE BIL 25 NNW WRL 50 NNW CPR 50 NW CDR 25 WNW 9V9 35 E ATY 45 WNW BRD 10 WSW INL ...CONT... 85 WNW ANJ 30 ENE MSN 15 S MLI 20 S IRK 30 SE MHK 45 NNW P28 30 ESE LBL 40 WSW GAG 25 WSW CSM 20 NNE ADM 15 NW PRX 35 SSW GGG 15 SSW BPT ...CONT... 45 SE DMN 30 W TCS 55 NNE SOW 25 WSW SGU 25 NNW DRA 25 WNW NID 10 WNW OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 10 SSE ABY 30 WSW AGS 20 NW CLT 20 NE GSO 25 NNE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES... NAM AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHIFTING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PECOS REGION. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD DURING THE DAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER IN AREAS FARTHER WEST...FORECAST SOUNDING FOR WCNTRL TX SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS CELLS MATURE AND MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 3 17:31:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 May 2005 12:31:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505031741.j43HfnCM025455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031740 SWODY2 SPC AC 031739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CTB LWT 10 S GCC 35 NNE CDR VTN 25 E 9V9 10 NNE INL ...CONT... MQT LNR OTM TOP HUT P28 30 NNW END MKO PGO GGG CLL VCT 35 ENE CRP ...CONT... 40 WSW ELP TCS 70 NNE INW SGU TPH 30 E BIH 25 WNW NID BFL PRB MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE AYS 30 WNW SAV CHS 55 S CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS -- WITH BLENDED NRN/SRN STREAM FLOW -- AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN NERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS STATES -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS EARLY IN PERIOD AND ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY BY 05/12Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APCHS FRONTAL ZONE NOW ESSENTIALLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON -- PRIMARILY ALONG SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...S OF FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING AND 70S F DEW POINTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG BETWEEN E AND W COAST SEA BREEZES. MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED MAY BE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONSIDERABLE DISPARITIES REMAIN IN SHORT-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AS TO TIMING/LOCATION OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO PENINSULA. THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE IMPORTANT FOR ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED ALIGNMENTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ACROSS REGION -- AND RESULTANT INFLUENCES ON BOTH SEA BREEZE BEHAVIOR AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEARS. IN ANY EVENT...HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL SPEEDS SHOULD LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE AND RESTRICT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ...SW TX/SRN NM AREA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM SRN NM SEWD ACROSS BIG BEND AND COAHUILA. GREATEST INSTABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER MEX MOUNTAINS W OF DRT/LRD AREA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AIR MASS CONTAINING MOST HIGHLY MODIFIED GULF TRAJECTORIES. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THAT MOISTENING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS. PRIND POCKETS OR SWATHS OF CLEARING WILL EXIST IN STRATUS DECK...BASED ON DAY TO DAY CLOUD TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING/MODIFICATIONS OF BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG AND W OF RIO GRANDE. SOME TSTMS MAY REACH BORDER WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING EVENING. FARTHER NW...WEAKER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND HIGH BASED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH ALSO MAY MOVE EWD OFF W TX/SRN NM MOUNTAINS. HAIL/GUSTS HEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 05:52:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 00:52:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505040602.j4462Bom027797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040559 SWODY2 SPC AC 040558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E YKN 20 W FSD BKX 55 NW RWF 35 E BRD 25 ESE DLH 25 W IWD 35 S IWD 40 WSW RHI 25 SE EAU 20 NW MCW 25 SW SPW 40 E YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 55 SW SEM 10 NNW SEM 35 NW AUO 25 WNW MCN 30 S CAE 30 NE FLO 45 N RWI 30 SE RIC 20 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ANJ 30 SSE OSH 25 SW DBQ 15 W STJ 25 NW END 60 SW SPS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 N SVC 30 SW GUP 40 NE INW 15 NE FLG 30 S IGM 30 W EED 40 NNE TRM 25 E CZZ ...CONT... 35 N ONP 30 S YKM 40 WNW MSO 25 NNE LWT 70 WNW MLS 55 N SHR 55 ESE RIW 20 NNW EGE 15 S 4FC 45 SSW BFF 50 SE MBG 15 E FAR 15 ENE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...MS/WI... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MN AND ERN SD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN MN SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NE NM/WEST TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN CNTRL FL SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY ACROSS FL. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SFC HEATING WOULD BE REDUCED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED. THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ..BROYLES.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 06:36:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 01:36:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505040646.j446kaef015655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040644 SWODY2 SPC AC 040643 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E YKN 20 W FSD BKX 55 NW RWF 35 E BRD 25 ESE DLH 25 W IWD 35 S IWD 40 WSW RHI 25 SE EAU 20 NW MCW 25 SW SPW 40 E YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 55 SW SEM 10 NNW SEM 35 NW AUO 25 WNW MCN 30 S CAE 30 NE FLO 45 N RWI 30 SE RIC 20 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ANJ 30 SSE OSH 25 SW DBQ 15 W STJ 25 NW END 60 SW SPS 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 35 N SVC 30 SW GUP 40 NE INW 15 NE FLG 30 S IGM 30 W EED 40 NNE TRM 25 E CZZ ...CONT... 35 N ONP 30 S YKM 40 WNW MSO 25 NNE LWT 70 WNW MLS 55 N SHR 55 ESE RIW 20 NNW EGE 15 S 4FC 45 SSW BFF 50 SE MBG 15 E FAR 15 ENE INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...MN/WI... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING NRN WI EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MN AND ERN SD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THURSDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN MN SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NE NM/WEST TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SWLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S F. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN CNTRL FL SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY ACROSS FL. IF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SFC HEATING WOULD BE REDUCED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED. THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. ..BROYLES.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 17:33:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 12:33:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505041743.j44HhcCU015431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041741 SWODY2 SPC AC 041740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE CTB HVR 80 WNW MLS SHR RWL 45 SW LAR FCL AIA PIR INL ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ PLN MTW CID FNB MHK ICT END MWL SEP HDO COT 45 S LRD ...CONT... ELP TCS INW FLG EED RAL 40 NE SBA 30 ENE SFO 40 WSW MHS EUG PDX 4OM 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB TCL 35 NNW BHM 25 NNE GAD RMG ATL MCN 45 S AGS FLO FAY RWI 35 E ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FCST AS ERN CANADIAN VORTEX WEAKENS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER SABINE RIVER REGION IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS INDUCING WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ATTM OVER E-CENTRAL GULF -- ALONG QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND DELINEATE NRN BOUND OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES UNTIL PASSAGE OF DEEPENING FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE NEWD ACROSS PENINSULA...LIKELY THROUGH FIRST 6 HOURS OF PERIOD. NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER KANSAS CITY AREA -- WILL PIVOT EWD NEARLY IN PHASE WITH AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING ADDITIONALLY TO LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE GA/SC/NERN FL. GEN TSTMS MAY OCCUR IN ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR BUT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE GA/SC. MEANWHILE...12Z RAOB DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATE TWO SMALL NRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT OVER NRN AND SRN SASK. THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA...NRN MN AND ERN ND DURING DAY-2 PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MN BY AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF SFC FRONT -- SWWD TOWARD BLACK HILLS AREA...SHOULD STALL BY 06/00Z THEN RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT. HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE W COAST AND OVER PORTIONS GREAT BASIN BY END OF PERIOD...CONTRIBUTING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF WRN CONUS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER REGION...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL FL NEAR FRONT. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES IN AREA OF BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW - AHEAD OF SFC WAVE CYCLONE -- MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES. FCST HODOGRAPHS IN THAT REGIME SHOW LOOPINESS IN LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS 35-40 KT. ALTHOUGH TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LARGE COVERAGE OF PRECEDING CLOUD/PRECIP LIKELY...ACROSS AREA OF GREATEST PROGGED SHEAR...MAKES THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL TO EXTEND DAY-1 CATEGORICAL SGLT RISK INTO THIS PERIOD. AFTER WAVE CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE NERN FL COAST...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW AND SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF LOSS OF SUPPORTING SFC HEATING. SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON OR AFTER DARK -- E THROUGH NE OF SFC WAVE. LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH FRONTAL ACTIVITY. PRIND SFC MOISTURE RETURN FCST BY ETA IS TOO AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING TRAJECTORY ORIGINATION FROM GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY CONTINENTAL RIDGING AREA...AND 850 MB FLOW EMANATING FROM RAIN-COOLED AND RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AIR MASS NOW OVER W TX. RELATIVELY DRY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S/40S F...COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING...LEAD TO MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG AND HIGH STORM BASES IN MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION. ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS WELL...WITH SIMILAR BUOYANCY VALUES USING ELEVATED PARCELS. ...SRN PLAINS TO SRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/ EVENING FROM ERN MOUNTAINS OF NM EWD TO LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AS FLOW ALOFT VEERS...BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING OVER ERN NM. STRONG DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ENLARGED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS LIKELY OVER W-CENTRAL/NW TX...BUT IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON HEATING IMPOSED BY PRE-EXISTING CLOUDS/PRECIP. MEANWHILE FARTHER W...STRONGER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT...BUT WEAKER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED ON HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS...PRIND SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCALES BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 05/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 05:53:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 00:53:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505050603.j4563nJF028754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050601 SWODY2 SPC AC 050600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW GCK 20 SW GLD 25 W IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 20 NNW RAP 60 NNW PHP 25 ENE BKX 20 E OTG 35 SW DSM 30 NE STJ 30 NNE TOP 30 NE SLN 50 N DDC 50 NW GCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV 25 SSW FLO 50 NNE RDU 25 W NHK 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 40 SSE CTY SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX 20 SE VIH 25 SSW SGF 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... RRT 50 NNW IWD 10 N MQT 40 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN US TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL JET TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL TRANSPORT 55 TO 65 F SFC DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY NWD WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NEB OR SD FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z FRIDAY IN CNTRL NEB SHOW A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 00Z ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH STORMS SPREADING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SD. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO CREATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS... ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM. ...ERN NC/SE VA... A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DRIFT NNEWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS CONVECTION SPREADS NWD ACROSS ERN NC AND SE VA AROUND MIDDAY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE MOIST AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 16:53:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 11:53:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505051703.j45H3nrm029373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051700 SWODY2 SPC AC 051659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 15 SE REJ 35 E Y22 40 E ABR 20 E OTG 15 WSW FOD 50 ESE OMA 40 ESE LNK 35 SSW HSI MCK 15 NW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 10 E MLB ...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 30 SSE FAY 20 E GSB 35 WNW ECG 10 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX 20 ENE COU 25 N JLN 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 30 S GFK 30 WSW DLH 15 ESE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INTO SRN MN AND WRN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE W COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER ERN MT FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM E-CNTRL WY INTO ERN ND WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E BY 06/12Z BEFORE LIFTING NWD ACROSS SD AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SD/NEB INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA... INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SLY LLJ AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASINGLY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WRN/NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ALONG NOSE OF SWLY 45-55 KT LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...WRN KS INTO WRN TX... BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS SRN EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. LATEST RUN OF THE NAMKF DOES SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CAP TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GIVEN INITIATION...MODESTLY STRONG /30-40 KTS/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. ..MEAD.. 05/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 05:45:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 00:45:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505060555.j465tUHB022690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060553 SWODY2 SPC AC 060552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI STC MCW DSM 10 S TOP 10 S EMP PNC FSI BWD 35 NNW HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 FST LBB LBL 10 WSW LBF PHP REJ 35 ESE MLS 40 NW GDV 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW P07 10 SW FST LBB 65 NNE AMA 10 NE LBL 45 ENE GLD 10 WSW LBF 45 W VTN 35 WNW CDR 35 SW DGW 45 S RWL 20 N GUC 20 W DRO 40 SSW CEZ 25 WNW U28 40 S EVW 40 E WEY 70 NW GGW ...CONT... 115 N CMX 45 NW TVC 20 ESE MBS 10 NE YNG 30 NE SHD 45 S RIC 20 N RWI 25 N TRI 25 NNE LEX 15 W BMG 10 ENE SPI 40 SE SZL 30 WNW FSM 50 ENE DAL 50 SE AUS 50 WNW MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW TODAY AND TOWARD THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LEE-LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN TRAVEL EWD INTO ERN SD BY EARLY SUNDAY. A DRYLINE TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS AND WRN OK/TX BY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VLY REGION. THE FRONTS/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY/CORN BELT ALONG NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ENEWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO REDEVELOP WWD THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY... PRIMARILY SATURDAY MORNING. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MINIMAL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE. MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AS FAR N AS THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT IN ND. AS H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE FIRST ACROSS ND/ERN MT ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE CINH WILL BE LOWER THAN FARTHER S. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL SD SWD TO CNTRL KS AS CINH BEGINS TO ERODE OWING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GLANCE OFF THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER E...AND LIFT MORE NWD WITH TIME...THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME DEEP SLY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY STORMS DEVELOP...CELLS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...THOUGH MARGINAL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL COULD RESULT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES...PRIMARILY OVER SWRN MN... CNTRL/SERN SD AND PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB. FARTHER N...MAINLY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VLY OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HIGH WINDS/HAIL...BUT AS THE STORMS MIGRATE BEYOND THE LLJ AXIS...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH. ...SRN PLAINS... FARTHER S...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS INTO W TX...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLD GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LESS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE THAN FARTHER N...AND GIVEN THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD RESULT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...BUT THE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE TIME STORMS MOVE INTO CNTRL/NERN OK AND NCNTRL TX. OVERNIGHT...TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD AND MORE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX AND MOVE EWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ...MID/UPPER OH VLY... A FEW TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES SWD FROM ONTARIO. KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO PERHAPS BACKBUILD NWWD INTO THE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGHER THETA-E AXIS. STORMS WILL THEN HAVE A PROPENSITY TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AS THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE CONCRETE...AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS PSBL. ATTM...LOW PROBABILISTIC THREATS WILL SUFFICE. ..RACY.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 17:17:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 12:17:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505061727.j46HRJCg029894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061725 SWODY2 SPC AC 061724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI STC MCW DSM 10 S TOP 10 S EMP PNC 30 ESE FSI BWD 35 NNW HDO 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 30 E FST 20 NE LBB 15 NE LBL 25 SSE LBF PHP REJ 35 ESE MLS 40 NW GDV 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 N CMX 45 NW TVC 20 ESE MBS 10 NE YNG 35 S MRB 10 NNE ECG 15 S OAJ 40 E CLT 35 WSW LEX 45 NE EVV 20 ENE ALN 15 NW TBN 30 WNW FSM 50 ENE DAL 50 SE AUS 50 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SSW P07 10 SW FST 15 NW LBB 45 N AMA 25 WNW LBL 10 ENE GLD 40 N IML 55 NE AIA 35 WNW CDR 35 SW DGW 45 S RWL 20 N GUC 20 W DRO 40 SSW CEZ 25 WNW U28 40 S EVW 40 E WEY 70 NW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE E...MERGING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT AT 07/12Z WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN SD WITH ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFYING FROM RED RIVER VALLEY SEWD TO THIS LOW...AND THEN WWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SWD THROUGH WRN KS...ERN TX PNHDL AND W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE NC COAST. ...DAKOTAS/NEB... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/IA...FOCUSED WITHIN WAA PATTERN ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS AS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO CNTRL NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEB WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND OVERALL SHORTER HODOGRAPH LENGTH NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE MULTICELLULAR WITH NWD EXTENT...THOUGH STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE SATURDAY E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S...POSSIBLY INTO LOWER 60S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WEAKER PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL APPROACH DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHEN COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIALLY LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...THOUGH IT SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD 08/00Z...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... THOUGH AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL SATURDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKENING LATER SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 05/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 05:09:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 00:09:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505080519.j485JKdx015782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080517 SWODY2 SPC AC 080516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BMG 40 ENE MKL 15 NNW GWO 35 WSW PBF 35 WSW COU 25 ESE SPW 40 SSE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 NE DLH 25 NW AUW 20 WSW MSN 30 NE LAF 25 SSE BMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 20 WSW NIR 40 W ALI 45 S LRD ...CONT... 15 E DRT 45 ENE ABI 35 WSW OKC 10 SSE LBL 15 NW LHX 25 ESE GUC 20 SW U17 40 NNW IGM 10 NNE EDW 30 WNW SMX ...CONT... 45 ENE CTB 40 NNE BIL 40 NNE RAP 40 SSW MHN 30 SSW EAR 20 E BIE 25 SSE YKN 35 N HON 10 E JMS 85 WNW RRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 10 WNW HTS 40 ESE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD/WEAKEN AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER SD WILL MOVE INTO NERN MN BY MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND CNTRL PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL OSCILLATE OVER OK AND CNTRL TX...BUT BEGIN TO SURGE WWD AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN OVER THE WRN STATES MONDAY NIGHT. ...MS VLY/MIDWEST... CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE TSTMS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MS VLY/MIDWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MCS OR TWO SITUATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO THE MID-SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY A 30 KT SWLY LLJ. STRONGEST LLJ CORE SHOULD SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. BIG QUESTION REMAINS IF ANY HEATING CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE OVERHEAD. ANY DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL...IND AND FAR W KY AS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CATEGORICAL SLGT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WELL...SO SEVERE TSTM THREAT LONGEVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL. UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY BETTER THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO ERN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD DURING PEAK HEATING AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SUPPORT FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST. BUT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY POOR AND SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL BE MOST LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT. ...ERN OK...CNTRL/NERN TX EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY... H5 TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SABINE RVR VLY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A MYRIAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING /DRYLINE-COLD FRONT-OUTFLOW-SEABREEZE/. SUSPECT THAT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A 5 PERCENT RISK OF AN ISOLD SEVERE TSTM. TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE SABINE AND LWR MS VLYS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS THE MAIN LLJ TRANSLATES INTO THE MIDWEST. BUT... HEATING AND AT LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO LA AND PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS THROUGH EVENING. SHOULD STORMS FORM...STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD OFFSET WEAK SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISKS AND AWAIT LATER DATA FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADES. ...GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXCESSIVE...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD AND MAGNITUDE OF PVA WILL SUPPORT LINES OF TSTMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 16:45:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 11:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505081654.j48GsoPN017195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081652 SWODY2 SPC AC 081651 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BMG 40 ENE MKL 15 ENE GWO 25 E HEZ 30 SSE SHV TYR 15 N DUA 40 SSW OJC 10 E P35 25 ESE SPW 40 SSE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 NE DLH 10 N AUW 30 SW OSH 30 NE LAF 25 SSE BMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 15 NNW SEP 40 E FSI 45 ESE ICT 35 NE MHK 40 ENE OLU 45 SSW MHE 30 ESE MBG 55 NE BIS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 N BIL 45 SE 81V 15 N AKO 25 WNW COS 20 S MTJ 20 SW U17 40 NNW IGM 10 NNE EDW 30 WNW SMX ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP 25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 10 WNW HTS 40 ESE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS THEY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM WRN MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE SWWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY RETREATS NWD IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS. MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EWD OR NEWD AWAY FROM STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST LATER MONDAY ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF MN/ERN IA INTO WI...IL AND MO. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR AS IT APPEARS THAT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY TEND TO RETARD THIS PROCESS. GIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND SOME CLOUD BREAKS...MLCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS OWING TO OVERALL WEAKENING OF TROUGH. NONETHELESS...SHOULD POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS/ARKLATEX... SRN EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED WAA TSTMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 09/12Z. SOME MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE W OF THE MS RIVER. IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/ OVER THE SRN LOW PLAINS/ARKLATEX REGION BY AFTERNOON. SINCE AXIS OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE NEAR MS RIVER BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING...QUESTION IS WHETHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP ALONG STALLING COLD FRONT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER-SCALE FORCING. SHOULD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INITIATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W... STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ARE FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT FROM NERN NV/ID EWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO WRN WY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 05:44:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 00:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505090554.j495sAPr031625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090552 SWODY2 SPC AC 090551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SNY 30 SSE DGW 55 SSW 81V 25 WNW 9V9 35 ESE BKX 15 SSW RST 25 NE DBQ 40 N PIA 40 E UIN 25 SSE IRK 50 W LWD 25 W LNK EAR 30 WNW MCK 25 SE SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC 20 E SLN 40 W HLC 35 SSE AKO 30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 10 W ART 35 WNW ELM 20 WNW AOO 35 N SSU 40 W GSO 25 WNW FLO 20 NNE SAV 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... THOUGH STILL BLOCKY...THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE WRN STATES...THE CNTRL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO THE GRTLKS...OH VLY AND SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NWD AGAIN ON TUESDAY. A CP AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE SWD FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT/MID-MS VLY... DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN UPPER LOW...LARGE SCALE RIDGING/MID-LEVEL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES/REDEVELOPS FROM SERN WY LEE-LOW EWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO EDGE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN. A MODERATELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO ERN WY IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER WY TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE TSTMS...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. IF CINH CAN BE OVERCOME ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY SURVIVE INTO WRN NEB AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN IA. ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AFTN TSTM INITIATION...BUT EXPECTED HEATING AND MASS CONVERGENCE LEND A HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BY LATE TUE AFTN FROM ERN NEB TO SWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. LCL/S WILL BE RATHER HIGH FOR TORNADOES...BUT AN ISOLD EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT...SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AOA 60 KTS...BLOWING NORMAL TO THE FRONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...SRN SD EWD TOWARD THE MS VLY. ...ERN GRT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES... CYCLONIC 60-KT H5 JET WILL ARC AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL...LINES OF TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. LINE SEGMENTS COULD BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WIND SUCH THAT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:58:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:58:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505091708.j49H8Jwc006193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091706 SWODY2 SPC AC 091705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SNY 50 WNW BFF 65 WNW CDR 50 S PHP 30 S RWF 10 NE RST 25 S MKE 35 S CGX 15 ENE DEC 25 S UIN 35 WSW P35 BIE 20 SE MCK 40 SSW IML 20 W SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC SLN 40 WSW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 E SSI 40 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEB AND IA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD FROM CANADA DURING THE EVENING...WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED WITHIN THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEB/IA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO IA. STRONG 0-2 KM HELICITY IS FORECAST IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE GREATEST LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT DURING THE EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SWD SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND N OF SURFACE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MOSTLY ELEVATED AND SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 17:13:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 12:13:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505091722.j49HMtGi017758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091720 SWODY2 SPC AC 091720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SNY 50 WNW BFF 65 WNW CDR 50 S PHP 30 S RWF 10 NE RST 25 S MKE 35 S CGX 15 ENE DEC 25 S UIN 35 WSW P35 BIE 20 SE MCK 40 SSW IML 20 W SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG 30 NE SGF 35 SSE OJC SLN 40 WSW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 NNE 4FC 10 N EGE 45 NNW DRO 45 ESE PGA 40 N IGM 50 S DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E 27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 70 SSW DLH 20 S GRR 15 ENE LAN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS 10 SSE BGM 20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 E SSI 40 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... CORRECTED TO REPLACE WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY WITHIN THE TEXT BODY ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEB AND IA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD FROM CANADA DURING THE EVENING...WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED WITHIN THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEB/IA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO IA. STRONG 0-2 KM HELICITY IS FORECAST IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE GREATEST LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT DURING THE EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SWD SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE FRONT DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MOSTLY ELEVATED AND SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 06:00:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 01:00:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505100609.j4A69jr1023316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100607 SWODY2 SPC AC 100606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GLD 20 WSW BBW 15 WNW ALO 15 ENE MLI 40 ENE UIN STJ 35 ENE ICT 30 SW LTS 50 N SJT 15 N MAF 40 S GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CAR 35 ESE MWN 25 E ISP ...CONT... 25 N PBI 35 S FMY ...CONT... 30 W PNS 25 E CBM 30 S STL 35 SW SZL 55 WNW MLC 60 NW AUS LRD ...CONT... 45 SSW MRF 25 N CVS 35 N CAO 30 SSE PUB 30 NNE ALS 35 SE FMN 25 SW PGA 40 WNW P38 35 NNE LOL 90 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 30 ESE IDA 40 NNE RKS 50 S DGW 60 W VTN 40 E ATY 20 S CWA 10 WSW HTL 90 E OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE WRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY EWD ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON WED WHILE A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH MIGRATES THROUGH SRN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT FROM SERN CANADA TO IA THEN WWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AFTN AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLS SWD IN WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK LOW VCNTY NWRN KS EARLY WED WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SERN NEB BY EARLY THU...BUT THE MAIN TRIPLE POINT WILL REDEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION THROUGH WRN KS AND INTO THE TX PNHDL BY LATE WED EVENING. MAIN IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... TUE NIGHT MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER MS VLY WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. LARGE PORTION OF THIS MCS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY BACKS/ REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WED AFTN. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN U.S. TROUGH BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY WED AFTN...THOUGH WARM SECTOR MAY BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT...AS WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD COMBINED WITH EXPECTED STRONG HEATING...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NWRN KS INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA MID-LATE AFTN. STORMS WILL PROBABLY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WRN TX S PLAINS. MAJORITY OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD INTO W TX. FARTHER N...CELLS MAY FORM...THEN GET UNDERCUT BY THE ACCELERATING SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. BUT...ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL MCS AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO KS AND WRN OK. ISOLD CELLS SWD IN W TX SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...PALMER DIVIDE... DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE...A FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY DEVELOP WED AFTN/EVENING. H5 CYCLONIC JET OF 60-KTS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR HAILSTORMS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES. WILL CARRY LOW PROBS FOR SEVERE BUT NOT SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK SINCE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE COLD DOME WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY/SUFFICIENTLY TO ELIMINATE INSTABILITY QUICKLY. ...MIDWEST... THERE IS A SIGNAL IN A COUPLE OF THE 21Z SREF MEMBERS IN EVOLVING A MCV OUT OF THE UPPER MS VLY MCS WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD TRACK EWD...PROBABLY TOWARD SRN LWR MI. INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT IS APT TO SUPPORT STRONGER TSTMS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MCV THROUGH IND AND OH WED AFTN. THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK/ UNIDIRECTIONAL...DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORIENTED IN N-S LINE SEGMENTS. WILL INTRODUCE A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT AND LET LATER OUTLOOKS EVALUATE MODEL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK. ..RACY.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 17:51:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 12:51:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505101801.j4AI1O5m016316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101759 SWODY2 SPC AC 101757 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LBF 20 SSE BBW 25 W OLU 30 N OMA 30 W DSM 25 SW P35 FLV 25 E MHK 20 NW SLN 50 ENE DDC 20 NE GAG 45 WSW GAG 60 SSE EHA 25 E GLD 25 SSW LBF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GLD 45 WNW LBF 40 NNW BBW 10 W FOD 30 SW LNR MKE 20 SSE MKG 15 WSW FNT 30 NE ERI 20 ESE FKL 20 SE PIT 25 ESE CMH BMG 35 NNE SZL 10 WSW MKC 10 NNW EMP 30 SW LTS 45 NNW SJT 15 N MAF 25 NW LBB 40 S GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW MRF 25 N CVS 35 N CAO 30 SSE PUB 30 NNE ALS 35 SE FMN 25 SW PGA 40 WNW P38 35 NNE LOL 90 WNW OWY 40 WSW SUN 30 ESE IDA 40 NNE RKS 50 S DGW 60 W VTN 40 E ATY 20 S CWA 10 WSW HTL 90 E OSC ...CONT... 25 NW CAR 35 ESE MWN 25 E ISP ...CONT... 25 N PBI 35 S FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW PNS MEI 25 SSW GWO 50 N GLH 25 SSW POF 20 NE VIH 35 SW SZL 55 WNW MLC 60 NW AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE/MUCH OF WRN-NRN KS/SRN NEB TO SWRN IA/NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE WRN STATES UPPER LOW ATTM OVER SRN CA/SRN NV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ASSOCIATED 60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO WRN KS/NEB BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI WWD ACROSS IA/SRN NEB TO A LEE LOW OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD E AND SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH VALLEY...WHILE THE WRN PORTION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN ROCKIES TROUGH...BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO SRN/SERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS WRN KS TO WEST TX. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NWRN KS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO PORTION OF THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SEVERE STORMS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN IL. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ERN NEB/IA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS IT REDEVELOPS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SLY LLJ INCREASING TO 40-50 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO WEST TX WILL BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL CAP. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AND EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. STRENGTHENING LLJ WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S ACROSS KS/NEB WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT EWD INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO. ...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... STRONG...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL. AIR MASS SOUTH AND EAST OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS MCS FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN LOWER MI/OH/WRN PA IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY SPREADS E/SE INTO THE AFTERNOON. 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT AND ENHANCED BY INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY N-S LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...WITH HAIL ALSO LIKELY FROM IL EWD. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ONGOING MCS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN OH AND REACH WRN PA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...SRN GA INTO CENTRAL FL... 30 KT OF NWLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SEWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS AGAIN OVER SRN GA AND SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. IF SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 05/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 05:53:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 00:53:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505110602.j4B62o9B027812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110600 SWODY2 SPC AC 110600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 15 S HOB 25 WSW GCK 25 WSW GLD 40 N GLD 20 SSW HSI 10 E OMA 35 S FOD 25 NW CID 25 SSE DBQ 35 SW RFD 20 SSW MMO 20 SW BMI 45 WSW SPI 25 SSE SZL 50 SW JLN 60 E OKC 20 NW SPS 40 W BWD 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 SE LHX 20 WSW COS 35 N 4BL 55 W U24 45 SSE TWF 25 SSW MQM 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 S TVC 20 NE CLE HLG 15 SSW SHD 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ENE MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH THAT WILL MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS THU AND THU NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE... NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD RECENT ECMWF/GFS IN DEPICTING THE STRONGEST SURGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LWR MO VLY...KS AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THU AFTN BEFORE RESUMING A SEWD MOTION THU NITE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY SWD THROUGH W TX. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY THU ALONG THE NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTN. COOL OUTFLOW FROM THIS STORMS SHOULD REINFORCE THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL IL AND SRN IA. WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL LIKELY RETAIN MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS/FRONT BY AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IA TO CNTRL KS. SWLY H5 FLOW 60-65 KTS ATOP SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. GIVEN LARGELY PARALLEL COMPONENT OF THE MEAN SHEAR VECTORS ALONG THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE ENEWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CINH IS ERODED LATE THU AFTN FROM SWRN KS INTO WRN TX. STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE DRYLINE AND GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIST FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK/SWRN KS. TWO-8 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE MORE NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE LONGER THAN FARTHER N. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A MCS WILL PROBABLY FORM AFTER DARK AND MOVE THROUGH NWRN/CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS BY EARLY FRI. ...OH VLY... ISOLD STORMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE OH VLY. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE IN THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY RESULT WITH A FEW STORMS. CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY INCREASE AFTER DARK...ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE OH VLY. PINPOINTING A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT ATTM AND LOW PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE. ..RACY.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 17:38:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 12:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505111748.j4BHmAD3003105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111746 SWODY2 SPC AC 111745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 15 S HOB 25 W GCK 35 SW GLD 40 N GLD 15 SSW HSI 10 E OMA 35 S FOD 25 NW CID 25 SSE DBQ 35 SW RFD 20 SSW MMO 20 SW BMI 40 S UIN 30 NNW TBN 25 N FYV 15 ESE TUL 40 SSE OKC 10 WNW BWD 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 SE LHX 20 WSW COS 35 N 4BL 55 W U24 45 SSE TWF 25 SSW MQM 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 S TVC 20 NE CLE HLG 15 SSW SHD 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES WILL DE-AMPLIFY FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2 AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH NRN STREAM FLOW OVER CANADA. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY OVER SRN NEB WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD SRN IA BY 13/00Z...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WRN TX WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD TO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE NEB SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY STATIONARY...BUT RETREAT NWD OVER MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ELEVATED MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND NRN KS ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE LLJ WEAKENS/REDEVELOPS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AND NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET...TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN MS VALLEY...WILL AID IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS STORMS BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AND SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS CROSSING THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO SRN IA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD FAVOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THIS AREA. AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KT NOSING INTO NRN OK/SRN KS. THIS SUGGESTS UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO AN MCS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD TOWARD WRN MO BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...MID MS/OH VALLEYS... MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SRN WV/SWRN VA WNWWD ACROSS KY TO SRN IL/SERN IA. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS. PINPOINTING A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT ATTM GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST OF LOW PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 05/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 05:27:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 00:27:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505120537.j4C5bGx4029111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120535 SWODY2 SPC AC 120534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BUF 25 NNW LBE 25 WNW HTS 20 SW EVV 30 NNE POF 30 NNE TXK 40 S DAL 45 NNW SAT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 25 WNW MAF 20 S CDS 35 NE GAG 20 WSW HUT 35 E STJ 40 SW RFD 35 S MKG 30 N MBS 100 ENE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 55 SSW LWS 65 WNW WMC 15 WSW RNO 30 WNW SAC 35 ESE CEC 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 55 S GLD 25 WSW OMA 35 SW ESC 20 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 15 SW BAF 25 SSW ABE 40 N SHD 45 S PSK 20 N FAY 35 W ILM 40 NE CHS 40 N SAV 50 E MCN 30 NNW MCN 20 WNW RMG 15 NNW HSV 30 S UOX 15 WSW ELD 20 SSE SAT LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL GRTLKS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POSITIVE-TILT OPEN WAVE TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGS SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE GRTLKS...MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO STEADILY MOVE SEWD...PROBABLY REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS...OH VLY...N TX LINE BY FRI EVENING. MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN IL EARLY FRI TO ONTARIO BY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS/OH VLY... A DIFFICULT FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NCEP ENSEMBLES/GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THEIR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THE PAST WEEK. THERE ARE APT TO BE SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-45 KT LLJ EARLY FRI FROM PARTS OF NRN OK NEWD TO LOWER MI. MAIN PART OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL GRTLKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG SRN EDGE OF MORNING ACTIVITY. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AS FAR N AS SERN LOWER MI...WITH SURFACE BASED STORM PROBABILITIES INCREASING THERE BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS...TSTMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES MIGHT ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW AND RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/UPPER OH VLY. FARTHER SW...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN LLJ WILL PEEL NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE THAT THE MODELS DEPICT MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. MOREOVER...LOCATION/INTENSITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALSO PLACE UNKNOWNS INTO THE MIX. PRIND THAT AS THE TAIL-END OF THE UPPER TROUGH/H5 SPEED MAX MOVES EWD ATOP A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...TSTMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NRN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS COULD FORM SWD ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX AS CINH IS ERASED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS MAY TEND TO GET UNDERCUT EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLES AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE OZARKS... ERN OK AND N TX...DURING THE NIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD INTO THE 20-25 KT SLY LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NWRN TX THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK AFTER DARK. FARTHER S...A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS W TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN A STORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT MAY BE COMPENSATED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUPERCELLS MAY RESULT. ..RACY.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 17:31:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 12:31:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505121741.j4CHfKWm030829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121737 SWODY2 SPC AC 121736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 25 WNW MAF 35 ESE PVW 65 WSW GAG 20 WSW HUT 35 E STJ 40 SW RFD 15 SSE MKG 30 N MBS 100 ENE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 25 NNW LBE 25 WNW HTS 20 SW EVV 30 NNE POF 30 NNE TXK 45 NE ACT 45 NNW SAT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 55 SSW LWS 65 WNW WMC 15 WSW RNO 30 WNW SAC 35 ESE CEC 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 55 S GLD 25 WSW OMA 35 SW ESC 20 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 15 SW BAF 25 SSW ABE 40 N SHD 45 S PSK 20 N FAY 35 W ILM 40 NE CHS 40 N SAV 50 E MCN 30 NNW MCN 20 WNW RMG 15 NNW HSV 30 S UOX 15 WSW ELD 20 SSE SAT LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS DAY 1 AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SPEED MAX DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER IA AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN OK TO SERN NM...WITH A DRY LINE THEN EXTENDING SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. EAST OF THE IA SURFACE LOW...A BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING SRN LOWER MI TO SRN NY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AS IT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. A STRONGER SURGE IN THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING E/SE AND REACHING A LINE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DAY 1 CONVECTION...AND TIMING OF DAY 2 SRN PLAINS CONVECTIVE INITIATION... THIS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NCEP ENSEMBLES/GFS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG AXIS OF A 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX TO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN PART OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO IL TO LOWER MI AND MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM MO TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD. A COUPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO SRN LOWER MI/NRN OH...AS ONE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI BY 14/00Z...AND A SECOND LOW INTENSIFIES FROM NERN MO TO NRN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS. FARTHER SW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM WRN MO SWWD TO WRN OK/NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COLD FRONT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORMS MAY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SSWLY LLJ ACROSS TX INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 05:56:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 00:56:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505130606.j4D66UQA025721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130604 SWODY2 SPC AC 130603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ROC 20 SE ELM 20 NNE CXY 45 SE LBE 15 WSW BKW 30 E CHA 10 SE HSV 35 SW MKL 25 NNE PAH 30 E IND 15 SSW TOL 50 NNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN 20 WNW ONM 35 SSW GNT 40 ESE INW 45 SSW PRC 30 S LAS 65 S NFL 10 N TVL 55 NW NID 35 NNW BFL 35 SSE UKI 10 SW EKA OTH 10 ESE OLM 25 WSW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE HVR 50 W GGW 65 ENE BIL 30 ENE WRL 50 SSW DGW 35 NNW GLD 15 S EHA 35 WNW CDS 15 NNW DUA 20 N PGO 30 SE TBN 35 NNW DNV 30 ESE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH / LOW -- INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE WRN UPPER LAKES / UPPER MS VALLEY -- WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES / OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY 60 TO 70 KT JET STREAK. FURTHER W...WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES THROUGH MEAN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO A SINGLE LOW CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD EXTEND WWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH / MID MS VALLEYS INTO TX INITIALLY...AND WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SECOND COLD SURGE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH INITIAL FRONT...AND EXTEND FROM ERN NY SWWD IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO CENTRAL TX. ...OH / TN VALLEY REGION... MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...LIKELY FROM PARTS OF ERN INDIANA / WRN OH SWWD ACROSS WRN KS / WRN TN. STORM INTENSITY / SEVERITY MAY BE MODULATED TO SOME DEGREE DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEGREE OF HEATING / INSTABILITY WHICH CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WSW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DESPITE POTENTIALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN KY NWD WHERE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE STRONGEST. SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SUFFICIENT VEERING IN AT VERY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ISOLATED / PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. HOWEVER...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARD A SQUALL LINE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PA / THE TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...WILL UPGRADE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO 25% -- THOUGH QUESTIONS DO PERSIST REGARDING ONGOING CONVECTION / POSSIBLY CONTAMINATED AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT. SHOULD CONVECTION BE LESS WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF FRONT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ALLOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ...SERN PA SWWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS... MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TROUGH MAY EVOLVE IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS ANTICIPATED. THOUGH REGION SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT...CONVERGENCE ALONG POSSIBLE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS. ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP...SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN NC NWD. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY E OF THE APPALACHIANS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ...PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS OF TX INTO ERN NM... PERSISTENT ELY / SELY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT LOW LEVELS AS COLD FRONT SAGS SWD INTO TX. WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ANTICIPATED...UPSLOPE FLOW -- AND POSSIBLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT COLD FRONT -- SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX INTO ERN NM...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...AS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WITH THESE STORMS LIKELY DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL PROCESSES...CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 17:30:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 12:30:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505131739.j4DHdqDv006439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131737 SWODY2 SPC AC 131736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ART UCA 25 NE ABE 15 SSW PHL 25 WSW DOV 10 WNW DCA 45 W MRB 20 WSW BKW 30 E CHA 10 SE HSV 35 SW MKL 25 NNE PAH 30 E IND 15 ENE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E DUG 55 NW TCS 65 SW GNT 40 ESE INW 45 SSW PRC 30 S LAS 65 S NFL 10 N TVL 55 NW NID 35 NNW BFL 35 SSE UKI 10 SW EKA OTH 10 ESE OLM 25 WSW BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE HVR 50 W GGW 50 NNW SHR 50 E DGW 45 ESE CYS 35 NNW GLD 15 S EHA 35 WNW CDS 15 NNW DUA 20 N PGO 30 SE TBN 20 WSW SBN 10 SSW MTC ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CO...WILL PHASE WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATTM. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 70-80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/AXIS OF SWLY LLJ FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING E AND S WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY. ...OH/TN VALLEYS... CLOUDINESS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/ COMBINED WITH A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION FARTHER EAST INTO NY/PA...WITH ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS IN THE NEXT SECTION. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND LEAD TROUGH. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS /75 KT AT 500 MB AND 40-50 KT AT 850 MB/ SUGGEST THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LINEAR. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS... REACHING WRN NY TO ERN TN BY 15/00Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FARTHER S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ORIENTED AT MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS IN ADVANCE OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS WOULD REQUIRE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST WIND FIELDS. ...PORTIONS OF NY/ERN PA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS... SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS TO MD/ERN PA AND SRN NY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR RE-INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER NY INTO ERN PA/MD. THUS...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE SLIGHT RISK. ...PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS OF TX INTO ERN NM... WRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY WITH MOIST ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT FROM SRN/SWRN TX INTO ERN NM. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK... ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK WLY MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX INTO ERN NM. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 06:02:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 01:02:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505150611.j4F6BqPo016176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150609 SWODY2 SPC AC 150608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW JAC 10 ESE BPI 45 ESE VEL 35 SW 4HV 45 S P38 20 NNW DRA 30 SSW TPH 45 SE NFL 60 S EKO 35 S BYI 20 W PIH 30 SSW JAC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HOB 10 N DHT 55 S GLD 30 S IML 25 NNW MCK 40 NE HLC 30 S GAG 40 E LBB 50 NNE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 10 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF 20 NNW ROW 35 ENE TAD 15 NNE ALS 45 ESE PGA 40 NNW IGM 45 N TRM 30 ENE OXR 35 SSW BFL 30 N BFL 30 NNW FAT 40 W SAC 50 E EKA 10 NNE MHS 30 WSW SVE 10 SSW SVE 35 S BKE 45 E PUW 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 75 NNW GFK 20 W BRD 45 WSW EAU 25 WNW DBQ 30 E LWD 25 NE FNB 35 SW EMP 25 NE OKC 25 NNW ADM 35 SE DAL 35 SSE BWD 40 WNW JCT 20 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE FURTHER WEST A SECOND TROUGH -- TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME -- MOVES FROM THE W COAST EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SHARP RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH TIME. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF THE ATLANTIC / GULF COASTS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FRONT -- INITIALLY ACROSS TX -- SHOULD WASH OUT DURING THE DAY...WITH BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. MEANWHILE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MT / WRN WY SWWD ACROSS NRN UT / SRN NV AT 17/00Z...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG / NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH. MAIN QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF UT AND NV -- AND PERHAPS NWD ACROSS SERN ID / SWRN WY -- WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...INCLUDING 40 TO 45 KTS SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB AND 65-80 KT SWLY MID / UPPER JET. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS -- BUT WITH FLOW ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY MARGINAL HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE LINES. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD TOWARD WRN CO AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS. ...WRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MEAN-LAYER CAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG/. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE / LEE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY PASSAGE OF WEAK LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE...20 KT WSWLY FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION / WEAK ROTATION. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...WEAKENING AS CAP RE-INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 05:13:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 00:13:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505160524.j4G5Of3u000785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160522 SWODY2 SPC AC 160521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE RAP 40 SSE MBG 25 NW HON 35 ENE YKN 35 ENE OLU 25 SW BIE 30 WNW HUT 30 NNW GAG 25 SSW LBL 50 NW GCK 25 SE SNY 25 NW AIA 25 S RAP 55 NNE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE MSP 10 SE OTM 45 NE SZL 45 SSW END ABI 15 NNE SJT 35 SSE MAF 45 NE HOB 30 W AMA 40 S LAA 15 NNE LHX PUB 30 NE ALS 50 E DRO 45 SSE 4BL 35 NW U17 50 SE EVW 35 SE RKS 35 N RKS 30 W COD 50 N BIL 55 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW HUM 35 S BTR 55 SE MEI 15 W ANB 40 NW AND 40 E HSS 25 SE RDU 45 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT WITH TIME THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG LOW / TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD-MOVING UPPER FEATURE. ...CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS... STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG / ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO SURFACE HIGH / RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SRN PLAINS OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT...WEAKER INSTABILITY / SHEAR FURTHER N...AND PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD / PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS WRN KS / NEB INTO THE SRN HALF OF SD. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE VERY STRONG FROM THE S...A COMPARATIVELY MODEST / COMPACT SSWLY 45 KT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. AS A RESULT...SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. WIND FIELD WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF SMALL-SCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION COULD EVOLVE. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT -- AIDED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...SERN U.S. / FL PENINSULA... MODELS SUGGEST ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS / GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF RESULTING CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE AIRMASS...AND UPON AMOUNT OF SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...AND PERHAPS A LOW-END / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER S ACROSS FL...MOIST / DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION INVOF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES -- WITH MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID / UPPER FLOW ON NRN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL JET MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER / MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND LOCAL / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 17:31:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 12:31:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505161742.j4GHgOYk003467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161740 SWODY2 SPC AC 161739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DIK 20 ESE BIS 10 W ABR 35 ENE YKN 35 WNW OMA 30 SSW BIE 20 WNW HUT 30 NNW GAG 20 WSW LBL 35 ESE GLD 15 NNW IML 25 NW AIA 25 SE REJ 25 SE DIK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE MSP 10 N OTM 15 WNW SZL OKC ABI 15 NNE SJT 35 SSE MAF 45 NE HOB 50 WSW AMA 40 S LAA 15 NNE LHX PUB 10 E ALS 35 SSE DRO 60 SSW 4BL 35 NW U17 10 W PUC 35 SSW RKS LND 30 W COD 50 N BIL 20 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PSX 30 NW HOU 45 SW LFK 45 NE LFK 45 SW MLU 10 ESE MEI 25 NW AUO 40 NW AND 30 W GSO 30 NW RWI 30 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM KS INTO THE DAKOTAS. EARLY MORNING NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ND BY 00Z. THIS RETURN APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO SOUTH TX...AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AHEAD OF CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC EARLIEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...THUS HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BY 00Z/18TH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS LLJ SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY 12Z. ...SERN U.S... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN U.S. PROVIDING LARGE SCALE UPPER VENTING FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH WEAK SFC RIDGING IS CURRENTLY WEDGED INTO THE FL PENINSULA...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SC FOR MORE FOCUSED UPDRAFTS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE FL PENINSULA. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS. HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND THUS LOW PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED. ..DARROW.. 05/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 05:22:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 00:22:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505170533.j4H5XOFV000642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170531 SWODY2 SPC AC 170529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ATY 30 SE STC 20 NNE CID 50 SSW UIN 10 SSE MLC 20 WNW SEP 15 SSW ABI 20 W CSM 40 W EMP 25 NE BIE 25 NE MHE 25 NE ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW GGW 75 ENE LWT 50 E WEY 60 WSW MLD 35 S OWY 45 ESE BNO 45 SSE DLS 35 NE EUG 45 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PFN 25 W DHN 30 E GWO 25 E PBF 45 WSW TYR 10 NNE JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 20 SSW BGS 50 ENE AMA 10 SSW CNK 15 ENE GRI 20 SSE ANW 40 SSE PHP 50 NNW PHP 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 50 NE ELO 30 WNW AUW 30 W MKE 30 SSE DAY 20 E HTS SSU 35 W SHD 50 NE EKN 20 SW AOO 25 N HGR 15 N BWI WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD INTO OK / N TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY THIS PERIOD THROUGH MEAN LONG-WAVE RIDGE POSITION ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM IA SWWD INTO OK / WRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW / TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN CONUS. FURTHER WEST...LARGE UPPER LOW / TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE W COAST...WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD SWLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NWRN U.S. / NRN ROCKIES. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS / OK INTO N TX... LARGELY NON-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF RISK AREA AWAY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY / REDEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAKLY-DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AS LIMITED /25 TO 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE WARM SECTOR S OF UPPER FEATURE...MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...VA AND VICINITY... MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD...BUT SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN PA / MD SWD TO NRN NC. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED /LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. HOWEVER...NWLY WIND PROFILES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO 40 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO ATTM. ..GOSS.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 17:37:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 12:37:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505171748.j4HHmTpf007822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171746 SWODY2 SPC AC 171745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW STC 30 ENE MSP 15 SSE DBQ 20 SSE UIN 25 NE FYV 20 WNW SEP 55 ENE BGS 25 E AMA 35 SE LBL 35 SW HUT 30 N MHK 25 SSE OMA 10 NE OTG 40 SW STC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N FCA 55 NNE 3DU 25 ENE MQM MLD 35 N ENV 40 NNW EKO 55 SSW BNO 60 ESE EUG 40 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ELO 30 NNW MBL 30 NE GRR 30 SSE DAY 25 NNW HTS 20 ESE CRW 30 SW EKN 40 ESE MGW 20 SW AOO 25 NNE HGR 20 E BWI 30 NE ORF ...CONT... 40 SSE MOB 40 N MOB 30 SSW GWO 20 W ELD 45 WSW TYR 10 NNE JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 SSW P07 25 WNW BGS 45 E CVS 15 SE DHT 10 WNW LBL 25 S RSL 40 E HSI 25 ENE YKN 20 WNW BKX 40 NW HON 35 NNE PHP 35 SW Y22 55 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN INTO NWRN TX... ...MN TO TX... NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM MN...ARCING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NRN OK. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A N-S BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION FROM MN INTO IA. THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...YET SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE AS LLJ BECOMES FOCUSED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TX...NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SWRN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN ALONG THIS ZONE ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC INITIALLY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY EXCEED 2500 J/KG. IT APPEARS ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... STRONG HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BANKED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF IT APPEARS FORCING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS...A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS REGION GIVEN THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ROTATING STORMS AND HAIL. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 05:34:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 00:34:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505180544.j4I5ik2t014027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180542 SWODY2 SPC AC 180541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MGW 30 SSE EKN 25 S BLF 30 NNW CHA 15 NNE HSV 15 S UOX 10 N TXK 40 N MWL 15 SW SPS 10 NE FSI 25 WSW TUL 25 SSW SZL 30 ENE UIN 10 E MLI JVL 35 S FDY 25 WSW MGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 10 NE LCH 45 ENE LFK 30 ESE ACT 30 S SEP 30 ENE SJT 45 SSE LBB 50 ENE AMA 50 S RSL 35 NE STJ 45 W DSM 20 NNE SUX 30 N ABR 35 S BIS 15 WSW Y22 40 SSW BFF 45 NNW PUC 35 S EKO 45 W BKE 50 WSW YKM 30 N OTH ...CONT... 10 NW INL 15 N OSH 15 S MKG 20 NE CLE 30 N LBE 35 NW MRB 10 NNW BWI 30 SE DOV ...CONT... 40 SE EWN 15 NNW FLO 45 ESE AGS 15 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS INTO THE OZARKS / ERN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MODEL FORECASTS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ALL MODELS ABANDONING THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM INVOF IA / SRN MN INTO THE WRN GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY NOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AS TO EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM...THOUGH SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER FEATURE WILL TAKE A MORE SELY PATH FROM SRN MN INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. NAM IS THE FURTHEST E OF THE THREE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A DEEPER LOW OVER SERN OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER W WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND INDICATES A WEAKER LOW OVER ERN KY WITH A SECOND CENTER OVER SWRN TN. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST W WITH THE UPPER FEATURE...AND INDICATES NO SURFACE LOW OF CONSEQUENCE OVER THE TN / OH VALLEY REGION. ...OH / TN / MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE OZARKS / ERN OK... INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL EVOLUTIONS IS RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ATTM...IT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SEWD FROM MN INTO THE MIDWEST / LOWER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MO AND OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG / AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO PARTS OF OK...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. ONGOING CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION FORECAST ATTM MAY LIMIT DOWNSTREAM HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE THIS REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL THREAT -- WOULD LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION SUGGESTS THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH NAMKF -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM AND GFS -- HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENTIALLY SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH AND INTO THE TN VALLEY REGIONS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A 15% SEVERE THREAT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD THIS SCENARIO BECOME MORE LIKELY. STORMS AND PERHAPS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION / INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... AS INDICATED ABOVE...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS CASTING A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF VA / NRN NC INVOF ERN EXTENSION OF OH VALLEY WARM FRONT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH AREA MAY REMAIN BENEATH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW / TROUGH...A FEW STRONG / POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AIDED BY MODERATE FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL / LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM THE W. ..GOSS.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 17:28:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 12:28:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505181739.j4IHdQU9022988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181736 SWODY2 SPC AC 181735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE RFD 20 SSW SBN 30 ESE FWA 25 ESE CMH 20 NE CRW 25 WNW HKY 35 NW AND 15 E GAD 35 WNW UOX 35 WSW HOT 40 SSW SPS 15 ESE CDS 15 E GAG 30 SSE ICT 15 SSW OJC 25 WSW IRK 35 E CID 10 ENE RFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 30 E CWA 15 S MKG 20 NE CLE 30 N LBE 35 NW MRB 10 NNW BWI 30 SE DOV ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 W POE 30 S GGG 45 SE DAL 30 E BWD 15 NE JCT 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 85 S MRF 80 S MRF 10 NNW CAO 20 NNW LAA 40 ESE GLD 25 ENE RSL 20 ENE FNB 20 W DSM 30 W MCW 45 N RWF 60 S FAR 10 W ABR 45 SSW PIR 50 WSW MHN 25 SE BFF 50 NW BFF 40 SSE CPR 25 SE RKS 45 ESE SLC 45 WNW ELY 45 SE NFL 45 ESE SVE 20 ESE BNO 30 WSW PDT 50 WSW YKM 30 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...OH/TN VALLEYS... EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE IS DISPLAYING SOME DISCREPANCY IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. LATEST NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE UPPER LOW INTO SRN IL. THIS LATTER SOLUTION HAS MORE CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT AND THUS A SHARPER SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS KS/MO/IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 MCS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL...SWWD INTO ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID DAY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ALONG ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER 2000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL OR SEGMENTED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND/IL/KY/TN REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... FARTHER WEST...MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL EXIST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INTENSE ACROSS NWRN TX INTO EXTREME SWRN OK. THIS HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING MODIFIED OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...YET RELATIVELY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT FAVORS WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE OFF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...KS/MO/IL... SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL IL...WWD INTO KS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS KS...NOSING INTO NRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FRONTAL ZONE DROPS SWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 06:04:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 01:04:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505190615.j4J6FEGu026859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190612 SWODY2 SPC AC 190611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 25 ESE POE 35 NNW SHV 15 N PBF 25 NE UOX 25 S HSV 25 SSE ANB 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT 30 SE SEP 35 NE AMA 15 ESE LAA 45 W RTN 15 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 55 SE RKS 40 W VEL 30 SW DPG ENV 10 E PIH 20 SSE MQM 40 S 27U 50 N BOI 30 ENE BKE 20 SSW EPH 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 85 E ELO 25 ENE MSP 25 ESE SPW 25 NNW FNB 55 S OJC 30 N UNO 35 E MVN 25 S LAF 25 NNW CMH 25 WSW MGW 25 ESE EKN 10 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SINCE MAIN CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE E OF THIS AREA WHERE MODELS ARE MORE SIMILAR...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EXISTS FOR THIS PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO THE DAY 3 FORECAST ISSUED 24 HOURS EARLIER. OVERALL...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER W...NOSE OF SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE FLATTENED WITH TIME...AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES IN BROAD BELT OF FAST / WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A CENTRAL APPALACHIANS / MID-ATLANTIC REGION LOW ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEY REGION. WITH TIME...THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS / TN VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST STATES / TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TROUGH / FRONT IN THE WEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN / SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SERN VA / CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST REGION / SERN U.S. AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MORE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING FRONT. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE NLY...FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED / SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST WITH TIME...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER WNWWD INTO TX / THE RED RIVER VALLEY...STRONGER CAPPING INVOF BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL / WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN ND / SD / WRN HALF OF NEB... DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...LIMITED NUMBER OF STORMS EXPECTED ATTM AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ONLY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 17:24:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 12:24:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505191735.j4JHZWO7012473@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191731 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE HUM 15 SW ESF 25 SW ELD 35 NNE ELD 15 WNW UOX 20 SW HSV 15 NE LGC 50 NE MGR VLD 40 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 ENE ATY 20 WSW HON 15 WNW PIR 55 NNE SHR 55 ENE BIL 90 WNW MLS 20 S OLF 15 SE MOT 80 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GLS 15 S SEP 70 SSE CDS 25 W EHA 10 SSW DEN 30 SE RKS 20 S PIH 65 NNE LMT 10 NNW 4BK ...CONT... 85 E ELO 25 ENE MSP 25 ESE SPW 15 NW FNB 45 S OJC 20 NE SGF 25 WSW MDH 30 S BMG 30 NE LUK 30 WSW MGW 30 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN US... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SERN US... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DAMPEN AND SHIFT SEWD INTO THE SERN US FRIDAY. A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM AR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NRN AL INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL AID INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN MS...AL AND GA. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MS AND AL SHOW VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE VEERED AND A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM SERN MT ACROSS ND. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS ND AND DEVELOP SWD INTO SD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN MT AND WRN ND. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW IN NW SD OR CNTRL ND WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BACKED. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 05:52:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 00:52:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505200602.j4K62rDX018335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200600 SWODY2 SPC AC 200559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E ELO 35 SSW IWD 10 NNW VOK 35 S MLI 20 E JEF 35 NW SGF 30 N PNC 10 ENE DDC 35 S MCK 15 SSW BUB 15 SSE MHE 55 NE ABR 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ART 20 WNW ALB 20 WSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE ORF 25 SSW SHD 30 WNW HLG 40 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 35 SW DHN 55 NW AYS 30 W CHS 35 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 40 NNW BEH 55 SSW BLV 20 SSW FSM 15 S FSI 35 NNW TCC 45 NNE ALS 25 WSW DEN 35 SSW ANW 20 ENE 9V9 35 SSW JMS DIK 35 SSE OLF 50 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE NWRN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB AND NE CO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. TRAILING END OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH KS AND INTO NRN OK EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THESE STORMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF KS THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. FARTHER NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...LESS INSTABILITY IS LIKELY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE MCS AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN IN WAKE OF MCS AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO ERN NEB AND IA AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE...STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SWD INTO KS. PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. ...FL... SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG. STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF FL...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 17:24:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 12:24:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505201735.j4KHZKwP018241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201729 SWODY2 SPC AC 201727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE CMX 30 ESE AUW 15 E DBQ 30 WNW UIN 30 SW SZL 45 NNW BVO 20 E P28 15 NE DDC 55 SW HLC 35 SSE MCK 40 ENE BUB 25 W FSD 25 SSW FAR 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF 45 SW RIC 35 S SHD MGW 15 E YNG 25 NNE ERI ...CONT... 10 ENE MSS 35 SSE SLK 20 NE POU 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ANJ 35 N BEH 20 WSW SLO 15 SE UNO 25 NW PGO 25 ESE FSI 30 ESE AMA 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 15 SSW DEN 40 SSW ANW 20 ENE 9V9 40 NNW ABR 45 W JMS 25 SSW SDY 25 S OLF 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 35 SW DHN 55 NW AYS 30 WSW CHS 30 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS... ....UPPER MIDWEST... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AND CLOSE OFF ACROSS SRN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND IA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO MN...OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND LIKELY WEAKENING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLEARING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST IN WRN MN AND SE SD. STORM INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE UPPER-LOW ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN WITH STORMS REMAINING ISOLATED ACROSS ERN SD WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F AND RESULTANT SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE IN CNTRL AND NRN MN WHERE THE SHEAR AND LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH 65 TO 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SWD INTO KS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE IN ECNTRL NEB AND NW IA WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING SEWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NE KS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MODERATE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH KS AND NW MO. PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...FL... AN ERN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM COVERAGE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF SRN FL. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 05:52:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 00:52:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505210603.j4L63FqY004938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210600 SWODY2 SPC AC 210559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI 20 WSW HLG 15 SSW CRW 20 W HSS 20 W RMG 35 W CBM 15 WSW TXK 40 SW ADM 40 WNW OKC 20 WSW ICT 30 ESE SZL 15 SE SPI BEH 30 ESE MBL 10 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ROC PSB 15 NNW RIC 50 ESE EWN ...CONT... 30 E CHS 35 NNW ABY 50 N MOB 30 NNE POE 60 NNE ABI 45 SSW GAG 25 ENE DDC 40 NE MKC 35 NW PIA 35 W MKE 40 NW GRB 70 SSE DLH 30 E BJI 10 N RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE 4SL 25 WSW 4FC 20 SSW FCL 40 NNW LIC 40 ESE RTN 10 N CNM 45 SSE ALM 15 ESE TCS 35 NNE 4SL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 15 ESE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE SW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TURN SEWD AFTER CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THEN SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND KS. BY LATE SUNDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. ...CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM OK...SRN KS THROUGH SRN MO AND INTO AR. ONE OR MORE MCSS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KS INTO PARTS OF MO...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY OR NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. INITIATION BECOMES LESS LIKELY WITH WWD EXTENT INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE DUE TO STRONGER CAP. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN FROM OK AND KS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET CONTINUES SEWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE SE INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AREAS... LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DUE TO MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ONGOING STORMS. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. THREAT FOR BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OROGRAPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE 40S IN ERN CO TO THE LOWER 50S OVER ERN NM ARE ANTICIPATED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG CAP E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATED SLOW SSEWD STORM MOTION AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND WILL NOT LIKELY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 17:20:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 12:20:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505211730.j4LHUwc6005262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211728 SWODY2 SPC AC 211727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ERI PKB 20 SSE JKL 50 SE BNA 20 N TUP 20 SW PBF 30 NW PRX 15 E LTS 35 W CSM 10 E GAG 25 E P28 40 SW EMP 35 SW SZL 25 SE SPI 25 WNW SBN MKG 40 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 30 NNE ABY 55 ESE MEI 35 SSW MLU 15 W MWL 10 N LBB 35 WSW AMA 55 SSE EHA 20 NNW HUT MKC 40 WSW PIA 10 ESE RFD 25 SW OSH INL ...CONT... 35 NW ROC 45 SE BUF 25 WSW CXY 30 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ALM 15 S ALM 30 NNW ALM 35 ESE ASE 25 SSE 4FC 30 ESE DEN 25 SSW LIC 35 E RTN 30 ENE ROW 35 NW CNM 35 SE ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW FMY PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT REACHING SCNTRL MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK ON SUNDAY. ELEVATED STORMS LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MO. HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS INITIATE. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF INITIATION AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAP AND WEAK ASCENT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LARGEST HAIL MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CANADA WILL OPEN AND DRIFT SEWD TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO IL AND IND DURING THE DAY. STORMS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. THE MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IS PARTIALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD AID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR POCKETS OF LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE. ...CO/NM... AS SFC TEMPS WARM SUNDAY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MTNS OF CO AND NM AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...ASCENT WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. THE BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK HEATING AS THE STORMS MATURE AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 06:19:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 01:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505220630.j4M6UOFK025316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220628 SWODY2 SPC AC 220627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GPT 50 ENE LFK 35 SW CDS 35 SSW CAO 25 S PUB 35 ESE DEN 25 SE BFF 20 WNW VTN 50 E ANW 30 SE BUB 20 N GCK END 35 SSE MKO 50 N GLH 25 NW TCL 40 ESE ATL 20 NE CAE 15 NW GSB 35 WSW ORF 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 25 SE SEP 35 ENE BGS 10 SE INK 40 NNW GDP 45 SW 4CR 30 E ABQ 30 SSW ALS 15 N 4FC 30 SE RKS 40 NNE BPI 35 NNW COD 45 W 4BQ 45 S P24 45 S JMS 30 NE MHE 20 ENE OLU 15 WNW SLN 30 WNW BVO 55 SSE HRO 35 SW MSL 35 E RMG 35 E SPA 30 E HKY 45 N HKY 30 SSW 5I3 30 W UNI 20 S CAK 20 SSW PSB 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN U.S. WWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SWRN STATES WHILE A TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE EAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TURN SE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SE U.S. MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SWWD THROUGH OK AND NERN NM EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH VA/ERN NC AND OFFSHORE BY EVENING...WITH TRAILING FRONT STRETCHING SWWD THROUGH SRN PART OF THE SERN STATES THEN NWWD INTO OK. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES... WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS EWD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. 40+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH 30-40 KT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME STORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...OK THROUGH NRN TX... SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OK OR NRN TX AND EXTEND WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF FRONT UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE MAKES CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH HEATING THE CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OR ALONG ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25 TO 30 KT WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY ELY OR SELY FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID LEVELS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NERN NM THROUGH ERN CO AND WRN KS AND NEB... LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD. THIS SHOULD ESTABLISH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WRN KS AND WRN NEB UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BY AFTERNOON MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST FOR 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM CO NEWD THROUGH NEB WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. AN MCS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 17:23:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 12:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505221733.j4MHXeBo030007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 30 NE BTR 55 ENE LFK 50 NW MWL 30 NNE TCC 25 WNW RTN 45 ENE ALS 15 E LAR 30 ESE DGW 55 WNW CDR 30 NNE CDR 60 E CDR 15 W MHN 25 ENE IML 50 SSE GLD 20 SE GCK 10 WNW END 40 NW PGO 20 SSW CBM 25 ENE LGC 45 W AGS 15 WSW FLO 25 WSW GSB 15 NW RWI 25 NE LYH CHO 50 SW DCA 10 SSE WAL ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 25 NNW GNV 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BVE 50 N BPT 20 SE SEP 45 ESE LBB 20 SE LBB 40 SW LBB 25 NW MAF 25 SSW INK 15 NE GDP 45 SW 4CR 25 NNE DRO 60 SW CAG 20 WSW RKS 30 S BPI 30 N BPI 40 W WRL 25 E 4BQ 25 SE Y22 40 N PIR 45 SSE 9V9 20 S EAR 25 ESE RSL 25 WNW BVO 50 SE HRO 30 SW MSL 30 NNW AHN 20 SW CLT 35 E HKY 45 SSW BLF 30 NNW 5I3 25 WNW UNI 20 NNW ZZV 20 NNW PIT 20 SW PSB 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTHEAST US AND ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING INTO ERN CO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE WITH 50F SFC DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS DENVER. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO A RIDGE ALOFT...TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN INSTABILITY QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN ERN CO MONDAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY ABOVE 1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN CO SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF SFC DEWPOINTS CAN REACH THE MID 50S F AND A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX DRIFTS OVER THE RIDGE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS TRACKING ACROSS WRN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE OR INTO WRN OK DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SERN US/ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS AL AND GA MONDAY. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SWD REACHING THE COASTAL SECTIONS BY EVENING. SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A 80 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND THE UPPER-LOW ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORECAST WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A LINE OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND SRN SC. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS AR AND MS DURING THE DAY. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN AR BUT WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE CELLS SPREAD SEWD INTO LA AND SRN MS DURING THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 06:30:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 01:30:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505230641.j4N6fAkQ030783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230638 SWODY2 SPC AC 230637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BUB 40 ESE GRI 20 W TOP 15 E CNU 35 NNW FYV 30 SW MKO 25 NNW FSI 60 WSW GAG 45 N CAO 25 NNW COS 30 E CYS 20 WNW MHN 35 E BUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LCH 40 WNW TYR 60 NNW ABI 25 WSW SJT 40 S MAF 30 S HOB 25 SSW TCC 40 W TAD 20 E CAG 55 NNW RWL 45 SW GCC 25 SSE RAP 50 SW ABR 65 SSW FAR 25 NNW GFK 25 SE MOT GGW 30 NW HVR ...CONT... 55 N CMX 35 WNW EAU 25 SW MCW LWD 45 WNW TBN 45 N LIT 25 NNW JAN 40 WNW CEW 35 SW VLD 10 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SOP 25 WNW GSO 15 N BKW 20 WNW EKN 20 SW MRB 35 ESE CHO 35 W ECG 30 NW EWN 25 SSW GSB 10 NE SOP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF OK... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS OVER TOP OF SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN OK OR SRN KS FROM A LEE LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS SWWD INTO SE WY EARLY TUESDAY AND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL CO BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH FL AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE SERN STATES. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH OK... AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF AND N OF THE FRONT FROM NRN OK THROUGH KS. PERSISTENT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN KS AND NEB WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM NEB THROUGH PARTS OF KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH KS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT INTO KS AND OK MAKES EVOLUTION OF EARLY ACTIVITY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST FARTHER W OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME BY LATE AFTERNOON. SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY ABOVE 3 KM WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY THROUGH ERN CO WRN KS AND WRN NEB. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND SPREAD SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO OK IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO EXPECTED STRONGER CAP. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...GENERALLY AOB 30 KT DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. ..DIAL.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:22:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:22:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505231732.j4NHWp2F005636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231730 SWODY2 SPC AC 231729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW VTN MHE 10 SSE SUX LNK BIE 20 W TOP 15 E CNU GWO 10 N LUL GPT 10 NNE HUM 10 WNW ESF TXK MLC OKC CDS 10 SE AMA 10 S EHA LIC 30 E CYS 35 SW CDR 25 NNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ELO IWD 10 S CID LWD SZL JBR 10 SSW CBM 10 NW MGM 50 S AGS FLO SOP PSK 35 WNW SHD CHO 40 WSW ORF 30 E ECG ...CONT... 20 S BPT LFK 45 SSE DAL SEP 40 ESE JCT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSE DUG GNT 4BL PUC EVW COD 35 N SHR 10 W Y22 50 WSW P24 SDY 25 NNW LWT 30 E 3TH 25 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SLOW TO CHANGE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND IN BELT FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WITH SERIES OF AMPLIFIED PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...INCLUDING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING PERIPHERY OF EASTERN U.S. CIRCULATION WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ARE PROGGED TO BOTH BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS...SLOW EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF CLOSED/LOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES/NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST. IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER FEATURES...ONE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES ...WHILE ANOTHER ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD LIKELY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES IN WEAKER STREAM OF FLOW ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN ROCKIES HIGH. ACCESS TO BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITH THIS STREAM...ON EDGE OF STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL FOCUS RELEASE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WEAKENING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS AT 12Z TUESDAY. AS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD...FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTERN STATES TROUGH LIKELY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THOUGH SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK...MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...WEST CENTRAL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG INSOLATION AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF INITIATION...BUT BOTH LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THOUGH LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...EAST/ SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR BROADER SCALE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ONE OR MORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVENTUALLY EVOLVES. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA/ KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA.. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/ CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO EXIST WHERE CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR SEA BREEZE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE COULD BECOME FAIRLY LARGE /UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG/ ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN MODERATELY SHEARED CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 05/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 06:10:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 01:10:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505240620.j4O6KhP6002393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240618 SWODY2 SPC AC 240617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BGS 55 SSW CVS 70 ENE 4CR 20 SSE LVS 20 WNW RTN 25 N TAD 25 SE LHX 15 SSE LBL 30 SSW END 20 N MLC 20 ENE PRX TYR 45 ESE ACT 45 ESE BWD 40 NNW BGS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 25 WSW SDY 30 ESE DIK 35 WSW JMS 45 ENE JMS 65 W RRT ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 35 SW MBL 25 NNE PIA 30 SE SZL 55 N HOT 25 ESE MLU 25 SSE GPT ...CONT... 35 SW GLS 15 S AUS 35 W JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 W MRF 15 NW ALM 40 SSE DRO 20 SW ASE DEN 35 SSW GLD 55 S EAR 15 NNW SUX 15 SSE BKX 20 NNE HON 35 NW PHP 30 NNW GCC 20 SE BIL 45 SE GTF 30 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 20 NNW MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN SURGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN W TX NEWD THROUGH OK OR N TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD DURING THE DAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. ...SRN PLAINS... FORECAST IS COMPLICATED THIS PERIOD BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF POTENTIAL ONGOING MCSS AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION. THE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN KS OR NRN OK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HEATING S OF THE MCS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO NRN TX. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE W TX LEE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH W TX...NERN NM...AND SERN CO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED. EVOLUTION OF POSSIBLE EARLY MCS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST THROUGH PARTS OF OK OR NRN TX AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND POSSIBLY SE CO WITHIN THE ELY UPSLOPE REGIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...BUT ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. ...CNTRL/NRN MN THROUGH NWRN WI... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH PARTS OF MN AND WI DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INITIALLY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION MAY OVERTAKE THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 17:24:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 12:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505241734.j4OHYSV4024140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241731 SWODY2 SPC AC 241730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SJT 20 W MAF 20 ESE 4CR 15 ENE SAF 45 E GUC 10 WSW DEN 45 NNE TCC 40 SE AMA CSM 25 E OKC 20 ENE PRX TXK POE 20 ESE CLL 25 WNW SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 45 SE FMY 45 SW AGR 15 N AGR 15 SSE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NNE CMX MQT LNR OTM MKC 15 NNE CNU 55 N HOT 25 ESE MLU 25 SSE GPT ...CONT... 35 SW GLS AUS HDO 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG TCS ABQ FMN CNY 25 NNW CDC 55 NW TPH 60 SSE TVL RBL MHS 80 WNW WMC ENV 30 SSE BPI 50 NNE LAR CDR 10 SE RAP 45 SSW REJ BIL 55 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 25 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES.... AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES WITH SERIES OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ...FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. EASTERNMOST OF THESE FEATURES...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...IS PROGGED BY MODELS T0 REDEVELOP OFFSHORE...EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EASTWARD ACCELERATION WILL AWAIT PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER IMPULSE AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST CENTRAL CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAKER BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU UPPER RIDGE INTO BASE OF EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME APPEAR LIKELY TO AGAIN PROVIDE FORCING FOR MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHRINK AS COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM BEGIN TO STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT. ...GULF STATES/FLORIDA... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTH OF EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CAPPING BENEATH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND LATEST GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR/NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE/FRONTAL ZONE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND SURFACE HEATING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FOR HAIL...BUT MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE ONGOING AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. SYSTEM LIKELY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND EXTENT OF STABILIZING INFLUENCE ON PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS UNCERTAIN. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG... SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ..KERR.. 05/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 06:10:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 01:10:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505250620.j4P6KSwX009905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250618 SWODY2 SPC AC 250617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SSE LRD ...CONT... 35 S DMN 55 W ONM 45 W 4SL DRO 30 SW GUC 60 ESE ASE PUB 15 NE RTN 20 N AMA 30 ESE CSM 15 E MLC 35 SE HRO 10 SW MVN 10 SSE DEC 30 NW UIN 20 WNW LWD 20 NW OFK 25 SSW HON 40 NE ATY 20 WNW AUW 25 SSE ESC 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 25 NW MGW 35 SE HTS 45 NNE CSV 40 NNE TUP SHV 35 WSW POE 10 W LFT 25 ESE MSY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE ERN STATES WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO TX BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. ...NM THROUGH TX... A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN OK OR NRN TX...SWWD THROUGH W TX AND INTO ERN NM EARLY THURSDAY. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS FAR W AS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SW TX AND SERN NM. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WILL EXIST FARTHER EAST S OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN TX. AN MCS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF W TX EWD THROUGH NRN OR CNTRL TX. S OF THE MCS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WITH MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST IF AN MCV EVOLVES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHTS STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX AND NM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK IN THESE AREAS ALSO DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE AND THIS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...MOSTLY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:32:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:32:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505251742.j4PHgF0Y010055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251725 SWODY2 SPC AC 251724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 50 SSE LRD ...CONT... 45 SSW DMN GUP CEZ GJT 15 NNE CAG RWL RIW COD MLS 60 NE 4BQ Y22 ABR AXN 65 SW IWD 40 E CMX ...CONT... 20 SW BUF FKL CMH IND SPI FLV 30 S EAR MCK GLD 40 E LAA LBL END MLC 65 N LIT 10 SE POF HOP BNA MSL 15 SSE GWO 10 S MLU LUL 25 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EUG 45 E SLE 65 N 4LW 75 NW WMC EKO ELY TPH 25 W BIH 25 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 25 ESE EKA 30 NE 4BK EUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PIE 25 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... CENTER OF BROAD UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FROM AREAS OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COOLING/DRYING IN LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZING TRENDS OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WARMEST AIR MASS BY THURSDAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...BUT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION ...AND MUCH OF THE WEST...REMAINS RATHER DRY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH THE SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...FLORIDA... INHIBITION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO THURSDAY. WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE/WHEN CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZES. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND PROPAGATION AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY... MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH/EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG AN EAST- WEST AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO CENTRAL IOWA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING. ANY HAIL LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT DRY...FAIRLY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 06:24:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 01:24:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505260634.j4Q6YgEp016883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260632 SWODY2 SPC AC 260631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CVS 15 NNW ROW 10 W 4CR 20 ENE SAF 35 E ALS 30 NNE TAD 50 SSE LHX 35 NNE TCC 40 S CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE UNI 30 W LUK 40 E SLO 15 SSW DEC 20 NE BMI 20 SSE SBN 10 SSE ARB 25 ESE MFD 15 NE UNI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 30 ESE CAE 20 E LGC 10 SE 0A8 HEZ 25 WNW ESF 45 NW LFT 35 SE LCH ...CONT... 65 SSW GBN 45 SE PHX 50 N SAD 25 NW ONM 15 NW 4SL 25 SE GUC 30 S DEN 40 ESE LIC 30 NW GCK 20 W P28 35 NNW BVO 40 SW EMP 20 SW TOP 35 NW SZL 35 ESE IRK 15 SE MLI 10 S MSN 55 NE EAU 45 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 20 E LEB 25 WNW BOS 20 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SRQ 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW 4OM 50 WSW PDT 60 SSE BNO 35 SSE OWY 40 N DPG U24 MLF 30 ESE TPH 40 ESE FAT 45 SSW MER 10 WSW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CANADA AS IT AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE ERN OH VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD IMPULSE AND EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME ERN OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND TX EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT OR TROUGH MAY ACCOMPANY THE SECONDARY UPSTREAM IMPULSE INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER FRIDAY. SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY THE LARGE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NWRN U.S. COAST BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. ...OH VALLEY AND SRN LOWER MI... MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE EARLY FRIDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXPECTED. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -20 C ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI. FORCING FOR ASCENT GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ABOVE MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NM THROUGH SERN CO... SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE SWD INTO TX THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM. ANY EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND SERN CO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL AND ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ABOVE ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NWRN U.S... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NWRN U.S. COAST WITH THE ETA BEING FASTER AND FARTHER N. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN OREGON AND CA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 17:23:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 12:23:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505261733.j4QHXCoX019820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261731 SWODY2 SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE INK GDP 25 N ALM 15 SSE SAF 45 N SAF 30 NW RTN CAO 40 NNW MAF 10 ENE INK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ART 15 ESE UCA 10 NNE TTN 10 NE NHK 10 SW BKW 40 WSW OWB 15 NNE CGI 35 W TBN 10 ENE OJC 15 ENE OTM CGX 20 N LAN 65 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 20 E LEB 25 WNW BOS 20 NE BID ...CONT... 15 NE ILM 40 SE CAE MCN AUO SEM 50 NE MOB 20 S MOB ...CONT... CZZ RAL 25 SSE BFL 30 NE PRB SCK UKI 15 SW EKA ...CONT... 25 SW BLI YKM BNO 10 WNW OWY 10 ESE ENV 15 SE U24 BCE 75 SSE U17 GUP DRO EGE 10 E FCL 40 NW IML ANW YKN 10 SSE OTG MSP RHI 85 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 10 ESE GNV 35 N GNV 20 E AYS SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY EWD INTO PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER BROAD CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AS WEAK UPPER JET AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. ...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...LWR GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS /500 MB TEMPS AOB -20C/. THOUGH SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL COLD SURGES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECLUDING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INSTABILITY BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL. DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL WEAK MID/UPPER PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REGIME WILL ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT PEAK INTENSITIES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST IN MOST ACTIVITY. ...FLORIDA... GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY. SHEAR LIKELY WILL BE WEAKER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED HAIL/DOWNBURSTS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AGAIN PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSL0PE FLOW BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...GREAT BASIN INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES... STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CASCADES. GIVEN A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS INTO THE SOUTHERN CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 06:37:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 01:37:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505270648.j4R6m3aC007725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270646 SWODY2 SPC AC 270645 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JLN 35 SSE P28 45 WSW GAG 50 WSW AMA 45 NE ROW 40 SSE 4CR 30 E ONM 20 ESE COS LIC 35 NNW GLD 30 NNW CNK 15 SSE FNB 35 N SZL 50 N SGF JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W IPL 15 NW EED 50 WNW GUP 35 NNW 4SL 20 S 4FC 10 SSE LAR 45 NNW CYS 35 SE AIA 15 S OFK 20 WNW DSM 15 ENE BRL 25 ENE PIA 15 S RFD 25 N FRM 30 E HON 45 NNE ABR 80 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BLI 20 SE SEA 10 SSE DLS 40 ESE BNO 15 NW OWY 25 ENE EKO 15 WNW U31 40 E SAC 55 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 45 NW ORL 15 SE GNV 45 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE...COLD CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES WILL WEAKEN ON DAY 2 AS IT EVOLVES INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE NERN STATES. BAND OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY OVER WRN ND/ERN MT...WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE WEAKER IMPULSES TRANSLATE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS REGION. IN THE WEST...MEAN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SWRN STATES NWD TO WRN CANADA. IMPULSES EMANATING FROM BAJA AND MEXICO WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS AZ/NM AND ALSO ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FURTHER N...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND GENERAL LOCATION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NRN CA/ ORE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO TX IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ...NM/ERN CO EWD ACROSS KS TO WRN MO... MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NEWD ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH AND INTO KS TO WRN MO ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD AND EXTENDING FROM NERN NM TO WRN KS...AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN NM/ERN CO WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF AN E-W BOUNDARY OVER KS INTO WRN MO. HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS KS INTO FAR NRN OK AND WRN MO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX EWD TO GULF COAST/SERN STATES... MID TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO EXTEND ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE SERN STATES TO TX CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL SINCE THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH. THUS...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX AS ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER... MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW...THUS LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORM THREAT. PORTIONS OF TX MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...MID ATLANTIC... A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT REACHING CENTRAL NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN NC. THIS COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL. ...UPPER OH VALLEY/NERN STATES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ...FL... OLD MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO PER WV IMAGERY...IS PROGGED BY BOTH NAM/GFS TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA BY 29/00Z. AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. ...NRN CA INTO PORTIONS WRN OREGON... DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM NRN CA TO WRN ORE COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 17:26:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:26:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505271736.j4RHavfJ022945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271732 SWODY2 SPC AC 271731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIA ALN 15 WNW VIH 15 ENE EMP 10 NNW GCK 60 ESE GLD EAR LNK OMA 20 WNW DSM 15 E CID PIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HKY 25 SSE DAN 45 W ECG 10 NE OAJ 50 N CHS AGS AHN AVL 30 NNE HKY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CNM MAF 10 SW SJT 35 ESE DRT P07 15 ESE MRF GDP CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RBL 30 SE CEC EUG RDM 30 SW BNO 75 NW WMC 25 NNE WMC 10 WSW U31 35 ENE TVL 50 SW SVE RBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BLI YKM 15 W PDT 10 WSW SUN LND LAR 10 WSW BFF 35 SE AIA OFK SPW RWF AXN 15 NNW IWD ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 E CZZ PMD 45 N FAT SAC 25 WNW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE TBN CNU BVO MKO PGO 20 NNE HOT 20 NW MEM 10 SE MKL OWB EVV MVN 30 WNW MDH 20 ESE TBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 40 SE GNV 20 S VLD 35 SW DHN 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SAT AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN AND EARLY EVE NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NRN SIERRA NEVADA.... WHILE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN STATES. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW WHICH EMANATED FROM MORE NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SYSTEM IS PROGGED INTO NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... SOUTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. IN WEAKER MORE SOUTHERN STREAM...ANOTHER UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BROADER SCALE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINS VERY WARM...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY MINOR WIND/HAIL THREATS...BUT SEVERE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IN SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOCALIZED AREAS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... SOUTH/EAST OF MANITOBA CLOSED LOW...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM ACCELERATING EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MODELS MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS KANSAS INTO CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS MISSOURI SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MODERATELY STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSES. STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREAT. PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS COMPARED TO AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES. FURTHERMORE...FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWEST TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST...BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ...NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CASCADES... MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT... MODERATE FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 06:33:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 01:33:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505280643.j4S6hWxF011324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280641 SWODY2 SPC AC 280640 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW GAD 15 SW SEM 30 ENE MCB 30 WSW POE 50 SW LFK 15 ENE AUS 50 SSE BWD 30 E SEP 35 NNW MWL 40 E LBB 30 S CVS 50 SSW LVS 30 SSE ALS 45 NNE ALS 30 W COS 35 SSW GLD 20 SSW GCK 35 WSW ICT 20 SSE EMP 30 E MKC 15 SW IRK 20 NNW SPI 15 NNW MTO 30 E MDH 25 ENE POF 20 SW POF 10 ESE JBR 50 SSW BNA 30 WNW GAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 45 ESE LRD 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 WNW YUM 15 WSW EED 40 NNW BIH 45 NW TVL 60 NW UKI ...CONT... 65 NW FCA MSO 20 NNW WEY 20 NNW RIW 45 S DGW 35 S BFF 30 E IML 15 SE GRI 60 ENE OMA 30 SSW FOD 10 W FOD 45 NE BUB 35 ESE ANW 30 SW PHP 55 NE 4BQ 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV 35 NW BWI 30 NE SSU 30 NE HKY 20 ESE CLT 20 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN CO/NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED E-W ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD TO NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 1 WILL REMAIN ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS ON SUNDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE-STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE PACIFIC TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE...WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2 BREAKING DOWN THE SWRN STATES RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z MONDAY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE SERN STATES. GENERALLY WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SRN STREAM SHOULD ENHANCE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND FURTHER S ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION SATURDAY NIGHT TO 12Z SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2. ...ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... NAM/GFS/NAMKF AGREE THAT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG/N OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN OK SEWD TO CENTRAL MS/SRN AL AT 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EARLY MORNING TSTM CLUSTER EWD ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS...THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS UNCERTAIN. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN/ERN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY LOWER TN VALLEY. ...MID MS VALLEY WSWWD TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE SWRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO NWRN MO AND NRN KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE S/SE REACHING A LINE FROM ERN WI TO CENTRAL MO AND NRN OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO/CENTRAL IL. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS MOISTURE AXIS. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS MOST LIKELY IN A LINEAR MODE. FURTHER W...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN KS/NRN OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO INTO UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MAINLY MULTICELLS...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM. SEVERE THREAT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND THUS SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO/NERN NM MAY BE LONGER LIVED AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING OF AN ELY LLJ INTO THIS REGION. ...NRN UT... MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTED EWD ACROSS NRN UT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MULTICELLS AS MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES DEVELOP ACROSS NRN UT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 17:34:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 12:34:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505281744.j4SHic42026220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281739 SWODY2 SPC AC 281738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO 50 NW LRD 25 N DRT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 35 S CDS 45 E CVS 40 WSW TCC 35 SSW RTN TAD 45 SE LHX 30 NW GCK 25 NW RSL 30 SSE DSM 10 WNW BRL 45 SSE UIN 20 SSW JEF 15 NW JLN 10 S TUL 35 ENE MLC 45 WSW MEM 30 E CBM 20 E MGM 30 WSW DHN 15 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 25 ESE 3TH 20 NNW WEY 20 NNW RIW 45 S DGW 35 S BFF 25 NNW IML 25 N EAR 20 SSE OFK 20 S YKN 30 WSW MHE PIR 50 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF ...CONT... 25 WNW YUM 15 WSW EED 40 NNW BIH 45 NW TVL 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W WAL 30 NE CHO 35 E PKB 10 SSW UNI 35 W BLF 10 SW AVL 30 E AND 20 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES...AND AREAS NORTH FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... ABNORMALLY LOW UPPER HEIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SRN BRANCH NOW IN PLACE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE MORE PRODUCTIVE BRANCH...CONVECTIVE-WISE...WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AS HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST WSWLY FLOW. ...GULF COAST STATES... EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SLY BRANCH EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO...ACROSS SRN TX. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER TX. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES ENHANCING THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY FLOW. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE UPSTREAM FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH SCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND 70S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON AS 30-35KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST SOUTH TX WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE INHIBITION AND CREATING VERY UNSTABLE PROFILES AS MANY TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S. MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 3500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT EVOLVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS UNDERESTIMATED...AS SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS MODELS SAMPLE THIS FEATURE LATER THIS EVENING...MORE CONFIDENCE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER LOW LEVEL FOCUS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NRN MO... FARTHER NORTH...SWD PLUNGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ZONE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NRN MO...POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPPER TROUGH OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THAT WILL SHEAR ESEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THUS DIURNAL HEATING WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS ORE/NRN CA WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS NRN NV INTO UT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD ENABLE DEEP CONVECTION TO EASILY DEVELOP NORTH OF JET AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 06:34:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 01:34:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505290644.j4T6iYqd019069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290638 SWODY2 SPC AC 290637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW INK 30 SW ROW 50 SSE SAF 45 WNW RTN 30 WNW PUB 40 SE LIC 10 NE LAA 10 N DHT 20 WNW LBB 30 NE BGS 45 W BWD 35 ENE JCT 15 ENE HDO 25 NW COT 35 SE DRT 25 ENE P07 30 WNW INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW 40 SE PGA 45 W MLF 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 15 E WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR 10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW...NOW OVER NRN CA...WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM NRN UT INTO CO ON MONDAY. FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTH...A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z MONDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE NWRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX... WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 45-50 KT ACROSS ERN CO/ERN NM AS THE NRN UT TROUGH MOVES EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD FROM OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO AND NM. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN NM TO NEAR DRT BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE MID 60S OVER SWRN TX WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS THE DRY LINE. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER SRN CO/ERN NM WHERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH MULTICELLS EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMMON SEWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN TX INTO WRN KS MONDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO MCS/S TO DEVELOP ESEWD INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN TX MONDAY NIGHT. ...SRN TX NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO SERN STATES... BAND OF MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING FROM SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN SEWD TO SERN GA AT 12Z MONDAY. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE GA PORTION MOVING NEWD INTO SC. SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS DIFFERENCE WHICH AFFECTS THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS RESULTED IN A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EWD TO THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ACROSS THESE AREAS. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...WHEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE OBVIOUS. ...OH VALLEY STATES... DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH...A BAND OF MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT/ SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN IA/IL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATED DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WITH THE SPEED OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL/ COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 17:08:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 12:08:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505291718.j4THIIWA006728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291711 SWODY2 SPC AC 291710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 40 WSW INK 35 SSW ROW 50 SSE SAF 30 W PUB 20 N COS 30 SE DEN LIC 30 NNE LHX 15 E CAO 40 E CVS 40 S LBB 30 N SJT JCT 40 NW COT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 40 ESE SOW 40 N INW 35 NW GCN 40 NW ELY 65 S BNO 10 ENE PDX 15 WNW CLM ...CONT... 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 40 WSW CDR 35 N IML 50 ENE HLC 10 N HUT 35 NNE CNU 40 WNW COU 35 ESE OTM 20 SSE FRM 40 ENE ABR 10 E JMS 65 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB ...CONT... 10 ENE JFK 20 SSE BGM 30 ESE IPT 30 SW ILG 10 NNE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. ERN PORTIONS OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OH VLY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. BUT...UPSTREAM WRN PORTIONS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTN. ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A NUMBER OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...OWING TO A NUMBER OF RECENT COLD FRONTS DROPPING SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NERN UPPER LOW. ONE FRONT...VCNTY OH VLY...WILL BE REINFORCED MONDAY AFTN AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES DROPS SWD FROM THE GRTLKS. ANOTHER FRONT...DELINEATING NRN EDGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE DEEP S. LASTLY...LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... DIURNAL UPSLOPE ENHANCED BY PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING GREAT BASIN H5 TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS ON THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. TSTMS WILL GROW ON THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS BY MID-DAY...WITH LIKELY PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT ON THE PALMER DIVIDE/RATON MESA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS 50-60 KT MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION BY LATE-AFTN. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW STABLE THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE GIVEN MORNING LOW-CLOUDS/FOG. BUT...IF SUFFICIENT RECOVERY CAN OCCUR...TSTMS MAY ROOT/DEVELOP INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES ADDED THREATS. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. FARTHER S...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SERN NM/FAR W TX. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE WEAKER HERE...BUT NWLY COMPONENT ATOP SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD THAN FARTHER N ACROSS ERN CO/NERN NM. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION MONDAY AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO. ISOLD THREAT WILL PRECLUDE SLGT RISK ATTM. ...OH VLY TO SRN MID-ATLANTIC... FAST WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED GRTLKS UPPER LOW. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION COULD INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VLY JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID-DAY MONDAY. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ALIGNED NORMAL TO THE SHEAR VECTORS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING AT SUNSET. ...DEEP S... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE DEEP S MONDAY AS THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HEAVY RNFL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...IF ANY AREA CAN RECEIVE SUN...STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY RESULT AND ISOLD DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD OCCUR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...BUT A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED. ..RACY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 06:20:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 01:20:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505300630.j4U6USCG012312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300628 SWODY2 SPC AC 300627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SJT 30 SE MAF 45 E HOB 30 E TCC 15 NNE RTN 25 S PUB 20 SE COS 45 ENE LAA EHA 40 W GAG 40 NE CSM FSI 15 WSW MWL 50 S BWD 45 S SJT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE 7R4 15 SSW MCB 40 SSE GWO 20 SSE CBM 20 NNW LGC 40 E MCN 30 WSW AYS 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 10 SSE CNM 35 ENE 4CR 20 SW FMN 25 SW 4HV 20 W ELY 45 SSE TVL 25 SW SAC 40 NNE UKI 15 NW MFR 45 NW DLS 60 E BLI ...CONT... 35 W INL 30 E MCW 30 SE IRK 40 SW STL 25 SSE SDF SSU 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 30 W CXY 25 NNW YNG 40 SE MTC 30 SE OSC ...CONT... 70 WNW CAR 25 WNW AUG 20 SSE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS SERN CO TO PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE NWRN STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THESE TROUGHS WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO TX. FURTHER EAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO WRN/CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK... NAM/GFS/NAMKF AGREE THAT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF A MCS...SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AT 12Z TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OK. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WRN MOST PORTION OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NWRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DRY LINE MIXING EWD AND EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX NEAR SJT AND NE OF DRT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH 30-35 OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NWWD INTO CO AND SERN WY...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PROGGED TO EXTEND INTO SERN CO. ONE OR TWO MCS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND MOVE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS/OK AND INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL TX. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS FROM DAY 1 THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INLAND OVER THIS REGION ON TUESDAY. THE GFS DOES SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY AREAS THAT CAN RECEIVE SOME SUN/STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 17:29:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 12:29:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505301739.j4UHdSaq002142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301737 SWODY2 SPC AC 301736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AUS 40 WSW SJT 45 E HOB 30 E TCC 25 E RTN 25 S LHX 35 NW EHA 30 NE EHA 25 ESE LBL 35 E DDC ICT BVO 30 NNW PRX 60 SW TYR 15 NNW AUS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 15 SSW MCB LUL 25 W SEM CSG 20 NE SSI 30 SE JAX 15 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 30 ESE EEN BID ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 25 S CXY 10 SW PSB 15 NW DUJ 40 NW JHW ...CONT... 45 WNW RRT 20 WSW OTG 40 WSW JEF 55 NNW POF 40 SE BNA 25 S CLT 25 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 10 SSE CNM 40 S LVS 35 ESE GUC 35 W CAG 40 N EVW 40 NNE EKO 65 SE 4LW 15 NNW 4LW 50 NNW BNO 15 SSE ALW 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SRN GA AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH BROKE OFF FROM ELONGATED VORTEX OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES LATE SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EWD INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... MODELS STRETCH PVA FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/NAM-KF INDICATE VERY STRONG SIGNAL ENHANCING UVVS OVER SERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE MOVING IT SEWD ALONG/JUST S OF THE OK/TX RED RIVER TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LOCATED IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL SRN BRANCH NEAR 90 KT INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WHERE DEW POINTS AT 850 MB ARE 10-16C. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE FORECAST AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5C/KM. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN AND N CENTRAL TX...POSSIBLY SRN OK...TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SCENARIO SPELLS BOW ECHO/DERECHO TYPE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-50 KT IS FORECAST FROM NERN KS NWD INTO ERN ND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ENEWD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG IS FORECAST INTO ERN KS...BUT SOURCE REGION OF LOW LEVEL AIR NORTH OF THIS AREA IS AROUND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST EWD ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL... REMNANTS OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE PERIOD. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM...HAIL AND WET MICRO BURSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 06:16:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 01:16:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505310625.j4V6Prml026451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310621 SWODY2 SPC AC 310621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 55 SSW ALI 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 NW DRT 65 NE P07 25 E MAF 50 SSE LBB 65 NNW ABI 20 NW MWL 45 S DAL 55 SW TYR 10 S LFK 35 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S P07 35 W INK 60 ENE 4CR 35 E ALS 30 WNW COS EGE 20 ENE U28 50 NNE P38 10 SSW TPH 35 NE MER 10 SW SAC 20 SE RBL 65 NNW SVE 90 NNW WMC 70 ESE BNO 30 WSW BKE 40 E DLS 40 W YKM 15 SW OLM 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... HUL 25 WNW AUG BDL 10 SW EWR 15 NW DOV 20 WNW DCA 50 ENE EKN 30 SSW CAK 15 ENE DAY 20 NNE LEX 20 WNW HSS 25 NNW SOP 20 SW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... GIVEN STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO/ QUEBEC...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO AS HEIGHTS FALL UPSTREAM OVER THE WRN STATES AS LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE WEST. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. ...CENTRAL AND SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA... THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SERN TX AND FAR SWRN LA WILL DEPEND UPON THE EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF DAY 1. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SERN TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH THE GFS INDICATING EVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT 30-35 KT OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS...ONCE THE LOCATION OF GREATEST RISK CAN BE DETERMINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE... A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWD ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SWD EXTENTION OF CONVECTION INTO IA/MO AND ERN OK TO AR. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS FAR NORTH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL LOCALLY APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES. FARTHER S ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB TO NRN TX...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ...FL TO SERN GA/ERN SC/SERN NC... 30-35 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GULF NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE SERN STATES. MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WEAK UPPER FORCING...A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 17:36:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 12:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200505311746.j4VHk9nr024466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311742 SWODY2 SPC AC 311741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ANW 35 NNW MHN 40 E CDR 15 N RAP 35 WSW Y22 25 S P24 45 ENE MOT 65 NE DVL 40 NNW TVF 10 NW BJI 30 ENE AXN 45 NE BKX 25 ENE ANW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BRO 55 N MFE 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE P07 50 ESE FST 25 SSE MAF 20 N BGS 25 NW ABI 30 NNE BWD 20 NW TPL 25 W CLL 40 NW HOU GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 35 WNW PBI 45 ESE FMY 40 S FMY ...CONT... 25 SSE TLH 15 WNW VLD 25 NNW AYS 20 W SAV 45 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 25 WNW AUG 10 NW ORH 15 NE EWR 20 SE PHL 15 E BWI 20 W HGR 20 N CAK 40 SE FWA 15 SSE SDF TYS 35 S GSO 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 35 W INK 65 WSW TCC 15 WNW TAD 45 W COS 35 N MTJ 10 NNE 4HV 50 NNE P38 10 SSW TPH 35 NE MER 10 SW SAC 20 SE RBL 65 NNW SVE 90 NNW WMC 70 ESE BNO 30 WSW BKE 40 E DLS 40 W YKM 15 SW OLM 20 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND S TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND NRN FL INTO SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW U.S.. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. NRN EXTENTION OF UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER AZ AND NM...SHIFTING EWD INTO PARTS OF TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN GULF WILL LIFT NWD. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER AL EWD THROUGH SRN GA AND SC. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH WRN MN... THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW FROM ERN MT SEWD THROUGH SD SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH ND AND INTO SRN CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CONVECTION. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM -14 TO -16C AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SPEED MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS DURING THE EVENING AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE DAKOTAS BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX... THREAT IN THIS AREA APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL. AN MCS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR SRN TX WITH AN ONGOING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW MAKES CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...CNTRL FL THROUGH SRN GA... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST OVER FL AND SRN GA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ENEWD WITH THE SRN EXTENTION OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NRN FL DURING THE DAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FL INTO GA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NRN FL INTO SRN GA WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST. ..DIAL.. 05/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.