[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201744
SWODY2
SPC AC 201743

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
HOU 35 S CLL 35 SE ACT 20 ESE DUA MLC 40 SE FYV 55 WSW ARG 25 SW JBR
40 W UOX 20 SW GWO 30 NE ESF 40 SW POE 15 NNW HOU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 35 SSW AUS
ACT 50 N FTW 35 SW OKC 10 SSE GAG 20 SE DDC 35 SSE RSL 35 NNE UNO 10
NNW DYR 25 NE TUP 35 N MGM 25 NE ABY 25 N TLH 25 WNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 35 WNW NIR
45 ENE JCT 20 N SEP 45 SSE SPS 55 N ABI 50 SE CVS 20 SSW LAA 25 WNW
HLC 15 ESE SZL 45 WSW HOP 30 S ATL 10 SW AGS 35 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX / SERN OK INTO AR /
LA / WRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES ACROSS OK / KS WITHIN DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...INCLUDING 70-PLUS KT WLY
MID-LEVEL JET S OF THE RED RIVER.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY INVOF THE OK / TX PNHDLS WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE DRYLINE ALSO SURGES EWD
ACROSS WRN OK / WRN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WARM / MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST E OF
DRYLINE / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CNTRL GULF COAST...
ACTIVE / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION THIS PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / WRN PORTIONS OF DAY
2 OUTLOOK AREA.  ALTHOUGH LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES -- MAY INFLUENCE AREAL SEVERE
THREAT...IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK / ERN TX / LA.

AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AN INCREASE IN ONGOING STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION -- BOTH AHEAD
OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS WITHIN GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX REGION...ALL WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID- /
UPPER-LEVEL JET.

WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
CYCLONE AND STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE VEERING /
SHEAR WILL EXIST.  THUS...WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE -- ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY -- FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED CELLS...SUPERCELLS WITH
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. 
INITIAL THREAT FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD
INTO AR / LA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT.  

ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND NWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS INTO SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON /
EVENING...AND EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.