From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 04:38:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 23:38:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503010603.j2163UVS014178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010601 SWODY2 SPC AC 010600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE EKO ENV 35 ESE U24 45 NNW INW 45 NW PRC 35 SE LAS 50 NE TPH 20 SE EKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 55 NNE P07 15 ESE MAF 15 SSE PVW 35 NNW CDS 25 SW OKC 40 ENE PRX 35 NNW SHV 45 NNE POE 30 S HEZ 25 SSW GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST...THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD THROUGH WRN MEAN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DRIFTING NWD OVER ERN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT / LACKING IN STRONG ZONES OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE BAROCLINICITY. ...CENTRAL AND SERN TX EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN OK INTO ADJACENT NRN / NERN TX. THESE STORMS -- PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD WITH TIME ACROSS E TX...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN LA AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS / SHIFTS EWD. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY EXIST WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED. GREATER SEVERE THREAT -- ALBEIT STILL LIMITED -- APPEARS POSSIBLE FURTHER W ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SWD INTO S TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SECOND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST -- PARTICULARLY NWD INTO CENTRAL TX...PERSISTENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE BY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- WITH PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED EXPANSION OF ONGOING E TX / LA CONVECTION SWWD INTO S TX. THOUGH WEAK FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30 TO 50 KT RANGE SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY. THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...LIMITED THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO, ..GOSS.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 16:10:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 11:10:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503011735.j21HZFc1020094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011733 SWODY2 SPC AC 011732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE EKO ENV 35 ESE U24 45 NNW INW 45 NW PRC 35 SE LAS 50 NE TPH 20 SE EKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 45 E DRT 30 SSW JCT 35 SE SJT 50 WSW ABI 50 SSW CDS 15 WSW CSM 35 NW OKC 40 SSE MKO 45 SW HOT ELD 20 E MLU 35 SSE JAN 20 SE LUL 20 N MOB 35 SSE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE BULK OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST/BAJA TO FL WHILE A SERIES OF MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST. ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES... EMERGING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WILL SPREAD ESEWD FROM ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST FROM THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...IN CONCERT WITH THE MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...TX TO LA GULF COAST... LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUSTAIN AN AREA OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A GENERALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED OVER SCNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORCING AND LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LEND UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ENSEMBLE DATA COULD LEND SUPPORT TO AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR THROUGH 300MB. IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS SCNTRL TX AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...MORNING MCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD TOWARD LA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. PRESENCE OF COOL/STABLE AIRMASS OVER INLAND AREAS OF LA IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAIL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER THETA-E GULF AIRMASS MOVING INLAND ALONG/SOUTH OF A GLS-LCH-LFT LINE DURING THE DAY. IF THIS CAN OCCUR...PRESENCE OF STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ATTM...THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SUCH A THREAT APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...GREAT BASIN... WARMING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS IN WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV/UT/NW AZ. ..CARBIN.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 05:33:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 00:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503020658.j226w10U006390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020655 SWODY2 SPC AC 020654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 40 NE FST 10 ENE HOB 50 NE ALM 25 WNW ABQ 10 NNE GUP U17 35 WNW PUC 25 N EVW 15 SE RWL 25 NNW FCL 35 SE LIC 30 N LBL 50 WSW P28 25 N PNC 35 WSW CNU 35 NNW SZL 40 SSW UIN 15 N STL 30 NNE POF 50 SW JBR 20 NW HOT 20 N GGG 35 WSW POE 35 ENE BTR 15 SE GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH...THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE W COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES -- THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION -- THIS PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SRN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD BE CROSSING THE TX COAST INTO THE WRN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND PARTICULARLY SEVERE THREAT -- ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH VORT MAX CROSSING THE ROCKIES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW / WARM ADVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 16:14:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 11:14:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503021738.j22Hcwr4011827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021736 SWODY2 SPC AC 021735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE SJT 35 ESE HOB 35 ESE ROW 25 ENE ONM 10 WSW GUP 75 SE PGA 15 NE U17 45 SSW GJT 30 ESE GUC 45 ENE DHT 25 W CSM 35 SE FSI 40 NNE FTW 15 SSW DAL 30 NNE ACT TPL 35 WSW TPL 30 NE JCT 10 SE SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE FSM 40 W TUL 35 SSW ICT 15 W HUT 15 N SLN 20 NE MHK 10 SW FLV 20 NNW SZL 15 WSW JEF 30 SE VIH 35 NNW POF POF 30 ENE ARG 30 SSW ARG 50 N LIT 25 NE FSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 SSE BTR 10 E MSY 35 NNE BVE ...CONT... 40 S FMY 15 SSW MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR W/NWLY FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE CONUS ALMOST FROM COAST TO COAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND FROM CNTRL CA COAST TO THE PACIFIC NW WHERE SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...PHASING BETWEEN FAST SRN STREAM AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CROSSING TX TODAY WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF TO THE FL KEYS. ELSEWHERE..A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD BAND NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IS FCST BY LATEST GUIDANCE TO SPREAD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO TX WHILE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING AS IT APPROACHES DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. THE OTHER IMPULSE...NOW CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ALBERTA...IS FCST TO TRANSLATE SEWD WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...NWRN TX... NW FLOW DISTURBANCE SIMILAR TO LAST TWO WILL MOVE FROM FOUR CORNERS AREA TO ERN NM/WRN TX PNHDL DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX HEATING AND PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO STRENGTHEN WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. FORCED ASCENT AND SOME MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER WEST TX FROM EARLY EVENING ON. THIS PROCESS SHOULD FURTHER SPUR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER DARK. MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 150-300 J/KG...AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STOUT /BETTER ORGANIZED/ UPDRAFTS WITH ONE OR TWO HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. ...SERN KS TO OZARKS... SIMILAR SCENARIO AND TIMING AS THE PROCESS MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA FROM SERN KS TO THE OZARKS OF MO/AR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN KS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE MAY COMPENSATE FOR GENERALLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF A COUPLE OF HAIL STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 04:54:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 23:54:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503030619.j236J0AR020307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030617 SWODY2 SPC AC 030615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DAG 20 N NID 45 SSE FAT 20 NW SAC 45 WSW MHS 60 SSW 4LW 20 ENE LOL 50 SSE EKO 35 WNW U24 20 SW 4HV 70 WNW GUP 50 ENE BLH 50 NNE TRM 30 N DAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 40 WNW AMA 55 SSW LBL 30 N END 10 NW SGF 25 SW STL 15 WSW LUK 25 NNE HTS 30 WNW BLF 40 SE TYS 25 ENE LGC 25 NNW MGM 35 ESE GWO 25 W ELD 15 WSW GGG 10 NE CLL 50 SE JCT 40 WSW ABI 35 SSW LBB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN RIDGE / ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. THREE MAIN SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE WRN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS CA. THE SECOND...A WEAKER SRN STREAM VORT MAX EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE RED RIVER OF TX / OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE THIRD WILL BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN OK EWD ACROSS AR INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN / CENTRAL TX...AND ALSO ACROSS THE OZARKS / MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THOUGH THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE LIMITED /40S TO LOW 50S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM VORT MAX EXPECTED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING SHOULD HINDER ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OVER TX. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- PERHAPS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OK EWD INTO KY / TN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM...SO WILL INTRODUCE CONDITIONAL 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST. ...SIERRA / WRN GREAT BASIN REGION... UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CA / NV THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE STRONG / SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 15:26:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 10:26:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503031651.j23GpILr023506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031648 SWODY2 SPC AC 031647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PMD 30 NW SMX 30 WNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 30 NE SAC 20 SSE RNO 35 ESE U31 25 WNW MLF 30 S BCE GCN 20 E IGM 60 E DAG 30 W PMD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DAL 15 W MWL 65 NNE ABI 20 NE CDS 35 SSW GAG 25 ESE P28 20 N VIH 40 N SDF 55 WNW HTS 25 SSE HTS 30 NNE TRI 30 WNW HSS 30 NW HSV 40 WSW PBF 20 SW DAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 F ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...KY AND TN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION BEGINNING IN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING WSWWD INTO SRN MO...NRN AR AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN OK DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE OZARKS. THIS DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERED WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS IN THE EVENING HOURS...A RAPID DECREASE IN CELL INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY MID EVENING. ...CA AND SW DESERT... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CA ON DAY 2. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 04:19:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 23:19:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503040544.j245iZSQ032694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040543 SWODY2 SPC AC 040542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE IPL 30 SW DAG 30 N LAS 30 SW CEZ 35 N 4CR 45 SSE LBB 15 S CLL 20 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SAV 30 S AHN 30 SSW CSV LEX 15 N HTS 20 W SSU 25 SSW LYH 25 NNE RWI 25 N HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA AT 05/12Z IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY SWD OR SEWD THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE EJECTING EWD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO TX. A MORE ENERGETIC AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONCURRENTLY PERSIST FROM CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AT 05/12Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD TO THE NC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE W...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SWD. OVER TX...A WEAK WARM FRONT /EFFECTIVELY DEMARKING NWWD RETURN OF SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS/ WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX SEWD INTO SERN TX. ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY OWING TO SWLY OR WLY TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TSTMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EVENING. ...TX... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWWD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO DRT BY AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT RESULTING FROM PERSISTENT SELY FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX IN CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN TX INTO S TX. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER SWRN TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY. ...SRN AZ... POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION ON SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING E/NE OF UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..MEAD.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 16:04:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 11:04:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503041728.j24HSqwt010871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041726 SWODY2 SPC AC 041725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW IPL 45 NE DAG 35 N LAS 45 S BCE 25 E FMN 25 NW PVW SEP 20 ESE TPL 60 NNE VCT 30 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SAV 45 WSW AGS 10 SE CHA 55 NNW CSV 50 ENE LEX 15 N CRW 20 WSW CHO 10 ESE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS... AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SLIDE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN SERN NC SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 300 MB BUT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WOULD RESULT IN FAST MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST THREAT FOR WIND WOULD BE IN THE 20Z SAT TO 00Z SUN TIMEFRAME AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PEAK IN THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR (ERN SC AND SERN NC). ANY MARGINAL WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE IN THE 02Z TO 04Z SUN TIMEFRAME. ...WRN AND SRN TX... AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT INTO THE SRN ROCKIES WITH STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADING WRN AND SRN TX DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ADVECT 55 TO 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO TX HILL COUNTRY AND ACROSS SW TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MORNING CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SW TX AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IN SOUTH TX MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DECOUPLING OCCURS...HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. ...SRN AND CNTRL AZ... THE UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO FAR NWRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SWRN US SATURDAY. SFC HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE MTNS WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 5 04:10:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 23:10:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503050535.j255ZRKa021810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050533 SWODY2 SPC AC 050532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 55 SE EED 50 SW GCN 55 SSE PGA 15 NNW ABQ 50 NE CVS 25 S LTS 30 NNW MWL 40 S SEP 30 W AUS 35 W NIR 30 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM OWING TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY FEATURE IN SRN STREAM IS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO N-CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN U.S. DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN NM INTO WRN/SWRN TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW INTO SRN NM AND SWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED AIR MASS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...PRIOR TO SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES AOA 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-25 M/S...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WRN AND W-CNTRL TX AS LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ..MEAD.. 03/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 05:03:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 00:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503070628.j276SEQe006452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070607 SWODY2 SPC AC 070606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AQQ 15 WSW AYS 20 SE FAY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN 40 SE AND 40 S MRB 15 NNW ILG 25 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE FCL 45 ESE LIC 35 SSW OKC 35 NNE DAL 40 SSE SEP 30 SW BWD 35 NW SJT 50 ENE HOB 60 WSW TCC 45 E GJT 40 ESE CAG 10 ENE FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 W P07 45 NNW DRT 35 WSW COT 40 WSW ALI 30 SSE CRP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SERN STATES. UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT 08/12Z WILL ALSO AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA INTO SERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA BY 09/00Z. FARTHER W...LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA... STRONGLY-FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SWWD INTO THE ERN FL PNHDL. WHILE INFLOW AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH QUITE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /OWING TO PROXIMITY OF 100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SRN EXTENSION OF THIS SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIOR TO COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. ..MEAD.. 03/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 04:13:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 23:13:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503080537.j285bbRS013290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080535 SWODY2 SPC AC 080534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PSX 45 ENE CLL 45 N GGG 35 ENE TXK 35 WNW GLH 25 SE JAN 30 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 50 W Y22 40 W RAP 25 WSW WRL 55 SW MQM 55 ENE BKE 30 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AT 09/12Z WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE... NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO CNTRL PLAINS SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AT 09/12Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE NERN GULF WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER N...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO MN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES. ...E TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL CANADA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND STORM INTENSITY LIMITED BY VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 16:07:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 11:07:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503081732.j28HW8i1014116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081729 SWODY2 SPC AC 081728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 65 NNE VCT 50 SW LFK 50 NW POE 25 NE ESF MCB 35 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 NE MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT NW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS TX ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE LAPSE RATE PROFILE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL INCREASE ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IDENTIFYING ANY MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WSWLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MIGHT EXIST ABOVE 850MB TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 17:12:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 12:12:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503101712.j2AHCDDR029315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101709 SWODY2 SPC AC 101709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SAV 65 SSW AGS 10 SW AGS 30 NW CAE 30 ESE DAN 45 W ORF 35 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PFN 15 SE AUO 40 SE TYS 30 W BLF 15 WSW EKN MRB 35 NE BWI 25 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE MKG 20 NNW FWA 20 N SDF 30 NW BWG 35 SSW PAH 45 NE UNO 35 WSW JEF 30 SE P35 25 E DSM 30 NNW CID 20 NE MKE 25 SE MKG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB 25 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...ERN CAROLINAS... ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SEWD FROM THE CORN BELT/GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CP AIR MASSES WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC BASIN WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT...HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WITH TIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/TSTMS. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP COULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. PRESENCE OF STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN /50-55KTS AT H7 AND 100+ AOA H5/ AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WOULD BE ACROSS ERN NC...BUT ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SC BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 17:10:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 12:10:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503111710.j2BHA8k3021022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111705 SWODY2 SPC AC 111704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT ESEWD INTO NRN MEXICO POSSIBLY ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THE BORDER OF AZ DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LIMITING THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ...AZ... UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD NWRN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...THUS LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvURa005736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120649 SWODY2 SPC AC 120648 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 50 NNE CLL 45 SSE PRX 40 S HOT 30 NE UOX 50 S BNA 15 NNE TYS 30 N RDU 30 NNE HSE ...CONT... 15 SE CHS 50 ESE MCN 25 SW ABY 15 SW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO...WILL RETROGRADE WSWWD THE NEXT TWO DAYS REACHING MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SWLY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS CHANGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN U.S. IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SSEWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ERN PACIFIC RIDGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL MOVE INTO TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NC WSWWD TO NRN TX AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN/NRN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. ...LA/SRN AR EWD TO AL... SLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE QUALITY OF THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST GIVEN WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD ON SUNDAY CONTINUING TO EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SERN TX TO SRN MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND THE CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. MODELS DO...HOWEVER...INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM MAINLY LA ENEWD TO GA/ CAROLINAS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING UVVS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A WLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvVJl005763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121710 SWODY2 SPC AC 121709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BPT 30 N LFK 25 NNW TXK 25 NW LIT 35 NE DYR 45 SE BWG 10 NE HSS 30 N RDU 30 NNE HSE ...CONT... 20 E CHS 30 NE MCN 35 SSW CSG 50 NNW CEW 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FHU 35 N TUS 25 SW INW 35 NE GUP 25 S SAF 35 SE 4CR 20 ESE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUN. LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO CNTRL/WRN NOAM. WAVE TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO TRACK FARTHER W...THROUGH THE HEART OF AMERICA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OH VLY NOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN NC TO N TX 12Z SUN...NRN SC TO SCNTRL TX 00Z MON AND CNTRL SC TO THE WRN GULF BASIN BY 12Z MON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT. ...LWR MS VLY/DEEP S... BOUNDARY LAYER RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH SUN. FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A WSWLY COMPONENT... ADVECTING A STOUT EML /OBSERVED IN SRN PLAINS 12Z SOUNDINGS/ ATOP THIS MOISTURE. THUS...DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION/TSTMS TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S. ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING IN A ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF AN OH VLY MID-LEVEL JET. FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLD NEAR-SEVERE HAILSTONES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 07:09:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 02:09:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503140709.j2E79tRK016804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140705 SWODY2 SPC AC 140704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 30 S LRD ...CONT... 40 W FHU 60 WNW SAD 60 ESE SOW ONM 45 N ROW 30 WNW LBB 60 WNW ABI 45 WSW BWD 40 W ACT 45 NNE TYR 40 WSW HOT 20 ENE LIT 45 S MKL 20 S CHA 40 NNW AGS 30 SSW CRE ...CONT... 15 NNW PBI 45 ENE FMY 25 S SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 13/12Z ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME PER WV IMAGERY. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW...NOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA...AS A SEPARATE FEATURE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH. THIS CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE AN OPEN WAVE OVER SRN BAJA AT 12Z TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE LOWER TN VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE GULF INTO DEEP S TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND REDEVELOP NWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 40 KT OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS LLJ EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN BAJA TROUGH ACROSS TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE WARM SECTOR FROM MOVING INLAND. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A PORTION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN THIS VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INLAND...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING ISSUED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF LATER MODELS INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 17:36:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 12:36:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503141736.j2EHaRmJ006695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141734 SWODY2 SPC AC 141733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 30 S LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 10 N SVC ONM 4CR LBB 50 SSE CDS ADM PGO MKL CSV 10 W TYS 10 WSW GSP 20 SE CRE ...CONT... 15 NNW PBI 45 ENE FMY 25 S SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/ EASTERN U.S. WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. AS POSITIVELY TILTED FEATURE PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW WEST OF BAJA...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ATOP AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH... EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT THROUGH BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER INITIALLY COOLING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTENING ON EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE CONVERGENCE BECOMES LOCALLY ENHANCED...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH CONTINUING MODERATE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...GULF STATES... WHILE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. TUESDAY. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU... ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NORTHERN LIMIT TO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VIGOROUS STORMS ROOTED IN/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER...IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY... GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MEXICAN PLATEAU... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...ENHANCED BY EVOLVING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 06:48:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 01:48:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503150648.j2F6mToY019223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150646 SWODY2 SPC AC 150645 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PNS 15 NNW MAI 10 ENE SSI ...CONT... 10 ENE MLB 25 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 40 S FMY ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 25 WNW SAT 20 SW CLL LFK 25 NW MCB 30 WSW MEI 10 E CBM 15 ENE ANB 15 NE AGS 15 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR BIL 60 SSW COD 55 WSW BPI 45 ENE OWY 35 NNE BNO 50 NNW DLS 15 NNW UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES...MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST...THEY AGREE THAT STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM SRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO FL. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM SRN GA SWWD TO SERN LA TO THE WRN GULF BASIN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE SEWD THIS PERIOD REACHING A CENTRAL FL TO SRN GULF LINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SSEWD TOWARD NRN BC...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS WA/ORE TO THE NRN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE SPREADING FROM THE NW-SE AS MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF AN 80+ KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM WRN WA TO NRN UT. ...EXTREME SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL... WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TO FL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND WAA ALONG A 35-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN AL/GA. ALTHOUGH THIS STRONG LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH THETAE AIR MASS ACROSS FL ON WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THE FL PENINSULA...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS WITH UP TO 50 KT AT 850 MB AND UP TO 70 KT AT 500 MB OVER SRN GA/FL...LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ..PETERS.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 17:36:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 12:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503151736.j2FHaWmB014617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151734 SWODY2 SPC AC 151733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PNS 15 NNW MAI 10 ENE SSI ...CONT... 10 ENE MLB 25 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 40 S FMY ...CONT... 60 WSW COT COT 55 N VCT LCH 25 NW MCB JAN CBM GAD CAE 15 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 W MLS SHR 60 NW RIW 20 WNW IDA S80 35 WSW GEG SEA 35 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL.... AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN U.S. IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/MEXICAN PLATEAU AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. UPPER TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE PHASES WITH AN IMPULSE IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SOUTH...NOW DIGGING TOWARD BAJA...MODELS INDICATE BROADER SCALE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SOUTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ENTIRE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL SUPPORT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE WAVES WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INTENSIFYING FLOW FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS SUPPORTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS PROGGED THROUGH THE DAY AS INITIAL WAVE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS WAVE AND...IF THIS SOLUTION COMES CLOSER THAN NAM TO VERIFYING...HODOGRAPHS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A MORE PRONOUNCED RISK OF TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS. REGARDLESS...40-50 KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF FRONT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SYSTEM...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. ...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... BEFORE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE BROWNSVILLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES... CAPE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ..KERR.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 06:18:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 01:18:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503160618.j2G6IsGH010269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160617 SWODY2 SPC AC 160616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 15 SSE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD TO THE WEST OF NRN BAJA...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER NRN FL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW AN ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD ACROSS FL. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES... RICH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN 60-70 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER S FL...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEAR OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS S FL. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LESS VEERING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND/OR GREATER INSTABILITY...THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE SRN HALF OF FL ON THURSDAY. ..PETERS.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 17:31:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 12:31:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503161731.j2GHVFx2019148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161729 SWODY2 SPC AC 161728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HLC 10 NW GLD 10 SE FCL RWL COD SHR 10 SW REJ PIR MHE FSD SUX LNK HLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED OR MORE ZONAL REGIME THURSDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SHORT WAVES...COMPRISING CURRENT AMPLIFIED LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/MEXICAN PLATEAU ...ACCELERATE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVES...MORE OR LESS IN PHASE...WILL MAINTAIN POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN SYSTEM LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND LIKELY WILL ONLY REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPEAR LIKELY TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STREAM LIKELY WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF MELBOURNE THROUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FORT MYERS AREAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG/NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY..BUT MOST VIGOROUS STORMS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS. WARMER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OPEN WATERS.... PARTICULARLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS...SHOULD PROVE MORE FAVORABLE TO OVERCOMING MID/UPPER INHIBITION. EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING OVER INLAND AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MIAMI WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ERODING CAP AND INCREASED FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...VEERED /I.E. SOUTHWESTERLY/ BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN LOWER LEVELS DUE TO HEATING...AND 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. ...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING BY MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD...NEAR/SOUTH OF SHARP FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 07:11:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 02:11:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503170711.j2H7Bope028912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170707 SWODY2 SPC AC 170706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E OWB 20 ENE MSL 55 NNW MEI 30 W JAN 50 NNW POE 40 NNW LFK 35 SW TYR 50 NNW HOT 40 NW COU 30 SSW DSM 15 ENE FOD 35 S LNR 35 E RFD 35 ENE LAF 40 E OWB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN STATES BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A LARGE PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CA COAST TO NRN BAJA REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. A BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH SEVERAL LEADING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME INTO TX. MEANWHILE...A MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FL. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS IA TO SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z SATURDAY... WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. ...MS VALLEY... STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FROM IA TO AR AND THEN EWD TOWARD IND TO NWRN AL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF NWD TO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. GIVEN NWLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN GULF AT THE START OF DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST. SWLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP THE MODEST RETURN FLOW EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WAA ALONG THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ...CA COAST... INCREASING ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 17:41:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 12:41:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503171741.j2HHf1oh024899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171732 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW MKT 40 SE EAU 35 WSW OSH CGX DNV MVN DYR UOX JAN HEZ ESF SHV TXK FSM UMN MKC STJ 15 NE OMA SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH/BREAKS DOWN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY... BEFORE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE LIMITED. ...PLAINS/MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES APPEARS RATHER VIGOROUS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID- LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -30C...WHICH WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES FRIDAY. STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SOUTHWARD ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX. THUS...DESPITE RATHER LOW MOISTURE LEVELS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS WHERE STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH UPDRAFT STRENGTH MINIMIZED BY VERY WEAK CAPE...HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...BUT RISK FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. FARTHER SOUTH...CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS... WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 06:40:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 01:40:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503180640.j2I6ecXh023024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180638 SWODY2 SPC AC 180637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CRP 15 SSW NIR 40 NNW NIR 40 SE AUS 25 NW LFK 45 ESE SHV 30 N HEZ 25 ENE MCB 25 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 65 E 63S 30 SSW 3DU 30 E PIH 40 NE U24 SGU 45 ENE NID 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CRE 15 NE SOP 50 E LYH 20 NNW NHK 35 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW COT 40 SW JCT 15 ESE BWD 20 N PRX 40 NW LIT 30 NNE MEM 10 W MSL 30 S BHM 30 SSW CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...LA..MS... ...EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BROADEN AND AMPLIFY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY AND THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS TX AND LA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 55-65 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG TX AND LA COASTAL PLAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...MID-ATLANTIC/NC... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AS A GULF STREAM SFC LOW ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS NC AND VA. THE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ...WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON DAY 2 SPREADING LIFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS TEMPS WARM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 17:33:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 12:33:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503181733.j2IHXfmA008124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181731 SWODY2 SPC AC 181730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP NIR 50 ESE SAT CLL 25 N LFK 45 ESE SHV 30 N HEZ 25 ENE MCB 25 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM YKM BNO 10 N WMC TPH NID BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRE SOP RDU 50 W ECG 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE LRD HDO 45 SE BWD DAL PBF MEM MKL 40 WNW MSL TCL SEM 30 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MMO 25 NE BEH TOL ZZV HTS 10 SSE LEX SDF MTO BMI MMO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST.... UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. IN GENERAL...THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH MULTIPLE DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. MODELS SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO LATTER FEATURE...EXIT REGION OF STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER PACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO CALIFORNIA...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION INTO TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH/EAST...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. JUST AHEAD...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF... THIS FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN SEASONAL WARMING OF LOWER LEVELS...AND CONTINUING COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALL AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN SLOWER TO RECOVER ...AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... STRONGER WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND FORCING FOR FURTHER CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TEXAS...IS UNCERTAIN. SLOW MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE REALIZED BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO/ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRENDS MAY BE FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME FOCUSED OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ..KERR.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 07:12:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 02:12:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503190712.j2J7C2v2001816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190704 SWODY2 SPC AC 190703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE TYR 15 ENE DAL 40 ESE FSI 20 W END 35 N P28 15 NNW SLN 10 NNE MHK 20 SSE TOP 10 E JLN 25 NW HOT 25 SE TXK 20 NE TYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE OTH 40 W SVE 40 W BIH 40 SE FAT 35 E PRB 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 20 ENE 3DU 40 SSW WEY 35 SW LND 15 E CAG 40 SE GUC 20 ENE 4SL 35 ENE GNT 25 SW GUP 20 WNW INW 55 SSW SGU 40 NE U31 40 E BNO 35 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 40 NW NIR 40 WNW SEP 35 N CSM 20 NNE DDC 45 SSE GLD 35 SSE IML 25 SW LBF 35 E ANW 20 WSW YKN 15 NNE SUX 45 SSE P35 45 S UNO 35 WSW UOX 40 E 0A8 10 S MCN 50 W SAV 20 NNE SSI ...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 35 E GNV 45 SSW GNV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS..OK..NRN TX... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER-TROUGH. THIS WILL TRANSPORT 50+ F SFC DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING...ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK E-NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING...SFC-BASED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY CNTRL KS AND NRN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK AND KS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WILL FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AFTER DARK AND SPREAD SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE OZARKS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN EAST TX FOR 00Z MON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP VERY ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE WRN STATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO SFC HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 17:37:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 12:37:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503191737.j2JHbbCC008751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191735 SWODY2 SPC AC 191734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 55 WSW RBL 35 NNE RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 20 W ALI 40 W AUS 35 WSW SPS 45 SW GAG 55 N CAO 20 ENE ALS 50 SW CEZ 60 NNE IGM 40 WSW DRA 40 W TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 15 S LWS 45 NW 3TH 30 SSW FCA 15 SSE DLN 25 ENE WRL 25 WNW LBF 30 NE HLC 50 SSW JLN 35 NW TXK 55 WNW JAN 30 N MGM 35 WSW MCN 35 NNE MGR AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE SRN STREAM -- OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS -- THIS PERIOD. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE EXITING TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. / GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS TX / THE GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTING LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN / SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD MODULATE STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THEREFORE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREATS MAY EXIST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST -- WHERE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A ISOLATED WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO...AND ACROSS E TX WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THUS MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. ...SRN KS / OK / N CENTRAL AND NERN TX... RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SRN KS / OK THIS PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DESPITE FAVORABLY-STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS / WRN OK / WRN N TX...AND ISOLATED / RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY HAIL THREAT WITH MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 07:12:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 02:12:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503200711.j2K7BmFW015719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200706 SWODY2 SPC AC 200704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW POE 30 SW TYR 35 ESE DAL 10 NE DUA 20 WNW MLC MKO 10 SSW FYV 50 SE HRO 10 WSW MEM 15 W TUP 20 WSW CBM 20 NNW MEI 30 SE JAN 10 E HEZ 15 NNE ESF 50 NNW POE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 25 S CLL 15 NNW ACT 25 NW OKC 25 S P28 40 N P28 20 S SLN 40 SSE OJC 45 SSE VIH 35 SSW PAH 30 NNE HSV 40 E ANB 40 SE CSG 25 N TLH 15 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT 15 W AUS 45 SW SPS 10 NNW LBL 25 NE LIC 30 SW SNY 35 SSW MHN 10 NNE OMA 25 NW SPI 50 NNE SDF 35 SE PSK 45 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 55 NNW RDM 35 SSE EUG 25 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 50 ESE RBL 50 S TVL 10 SSW FAT 15 WNW SMX. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE OFF MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD THE SYSTEM...AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY MIDDAY...CLEARING SKIES WEST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NERN TX AND ERN OK. CELLS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION OVER NE TX AND SE OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FARTHER NNWWD...ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS A SQUALL-LINE GRADUALLY ORGANIZES. AS THE SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TOWARD THE SRN END OF THE LINE...AND WITH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD REACHING WRN MS LATE IN THE PERIOD, ...GA AND NRN FL... A MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-TROUGH QUICKLY ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE SEVERE THREAT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 07:19:54 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 02:19:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503200719.j2K7JYtL017429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200717 SWODY2 SPC AC 200716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW POE 30 SW TYR 35 ESE DAL 10 NE DUA 20 WNW MLC MKO 10 SSW FYV 50 SE HRO 10 WSW MEM 15 W TUP 20 WSW CBM 20 NNW MEI 30 SE JAN 10 E HEZ 15 NNE ESF 50 NNW POE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 25 S CLL 15 NNW ACT 25 NW OKC 25 S P28 40 N P28 20 S SLN 40 SSE OJC 45 SSE VIH 35 SSW PAH 30 NNE HSV 40 E ANB 40 SE CSG 25 N TLH 15 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT 15 W AUS 45 SW SPS 10 NNW LBL 25 NE LIC 30 SW SNY 35 SSW MHN 10 NNE OMA 25 NW SPI 50 NNE SDF 35 SE PSK 45 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 55 NNW RDM 35 SSE EUG 25 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 50 ESE RBL 50 S TVL 10 SSW FAT 15 WNW SMX. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE OFF MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD THE SYSTEM...AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY MIDDAY... CLEARING SKIES WEST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NERN TX AND ERN OK. CELLS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION OVER NE TX AND SE OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FARTHER NNWWD...ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS A SQUALL-LINE GRADUALLY ORGANIZES. AS THE SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TOWARD THE SRN END OF THE LINE...AND WITH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD REACHING WRN MS LATE IN THE PERIOD, ...GA AND NRN FL... A MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-TROUGH QUICKLY ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE SEVERE THREAT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 17:47:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 12:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503201746.j2KHkkn9009654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201744 SWODY2 SPC AC 201743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW HOU 35 S CLL 35 SE ACT 20 ESE DUA MLC 40 SE FYV 55 WSW ARG 25 SW JBR 40 W UOX 20 SW GWO 30 NE ESF 40 SW POE 15 NNW HOU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 35 SSW AUS ACT 50 N FTW 35 SW OKC 10 SSE GAG 20 SE DDC 35 SSE RSL 35 NNE UNO 10 NNW DYR 25 NE TUP 35 N MGM 25 NE ABY 25 N TLH 25 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 35 WNW NIR 45 ENE JCT 20 N SEP 45 SSE SPS 55 N ABI 50 SE CVS 20 SSW LAA 25 WNW HLC 15 ESE SZL 45 WSW HOP 30 S ATL 10 SW AGS 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX / SERN OK INTO AR / LA / WRN MS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES ACROSS OK / KS WITHIN DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...INCLUDING 70-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET S OF THE RED RIVER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY INVOF THE OK / TX PNHDLS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE DRYLINE ALSO SURGES EWD ACROSS WRN OK / WRN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WARM / MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST E OF DRYLINE / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CNTRL GULF COAST... ACTIVE / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / WRN PORTIONS OF DAY 2 OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES -- MAY INFLUENCE AREAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK / ERN TX / LA. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AN INCREASE IN ONGOING STORMS IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION -- BOTH AHEAD OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS WITHIN GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...ALL WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID- / UPPER-LEVEL JET. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE VEERING / SHEAR WILL EXIST. THUS...WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY -- FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED CELLS...SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. INITIAL THREAT FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD INTO AR / LA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS INTO SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 18:09:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 13:09:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503201808.j2KI8dq4020227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201806 SWODY2 SPC AC 201805 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW HOU 35 S CLL 35 SE ACT 20 ESE DUA MLC 40 SE FYV 55 WSW ARG 25 SW JBR 40 W UOX 20 SW GWO 30 NE ESF 40 SW POE 15 NNW HOU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 35 SSW AUS ACT 50 N FTW 35 SW OKC 10 SSE GAG 20 SE DDC 35 SSE RSL 35 NNE UNO 10 NNW DYR 25 NE TUP 35 N MGM 25 NE ABY 25 N TLH 25 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 35 WNW NIR 45 ENE JCT 20 N SEP 45 SSE SPS 55 N ABI 50 SE CVS 20 SSW LAA 25 WNW HLC 15 ESE SZL 45 WSW HOP 30 S ATL 10 SW AGS 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX / SERN OK INTO AR / LA / WRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM E TX/OK/SRN KS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST.... CORRECTED FOR SLGT RISK POINTS LISTING ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES ACROSS OK / KS WITHIN DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...INCLUDING 70-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET S OF THE RED RIVER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY INVOF THE OK / TX PNHDLS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE DRYLINE ALSO SURGES EWD ACROSS WRN OK / WRN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WARM / MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST E OF DRYLINE / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CNTRL GULF COAST... ACTIVE / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / WRN PORTIONS OF DAY 2 OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES -- MAY INFLUENCE AREAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK / ERN TX / LA. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AN INCREASE IN ONGOING STORMS IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION -- BOTH AHEAD OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS WITHIN GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...ALL WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID- / UPPER-LEVEL JET. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE VEERING / SHEAR WILL EXIST. THUS...WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY -- FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED CELLS...SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. INITIAL THREAT FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD INTO AR / LA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS INTO SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 05:35:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 00:35:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503210534.j2L5YofZ007071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210532 SWODY2 SPC AC 210531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MEI 30 NNW GWO 30 WSW MEM DYR 50 SSW CKV 35 NNW HSV 25 W RMG 30 ESE RMG 20 NNE AHN 35 SSE AND 20 SE AGS 45 NW AYS 35 NNW TLH 25 NE CEW 65 SW SEM 30 WNW MEI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW HUM ESF LIT UNO 60 ESE VIH SLO 30 ESE BMG JKL 25 WSW TRI 25 WNW AVL 20 NNW GSP CLT 25 NNW RDU 25 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 NNW DAB 10 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 45 SE SHV 25 WSW HOT MKO 25 NE PNC EMP TOP UIN LAF 35 SSW FDY PKB 35 NNW LYH NHK 30 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL LMT 65 NNW 4LW BNO 45 WNW OWY BAM 50 NNW TPH BIH MER 50 NW SAC 50 NW RBL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF TN...MS...AL...AND GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...INTO THE CAROLINAS... POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...GULF COAST STATES... LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS TN/MS/AL DURING THE DAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S AND POCKETS OF SBCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE STORMS WILL SWEEP INTO GA/SC DURING THE EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND. ...MID/LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL OK BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO DURING THE DAY. LARGE SHIELD OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THIS REGION...ALLOWING STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THIS MAY AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHERN MS. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN REGION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND STRONG UVVS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..HART.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 17:39:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 12:39:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503211739.j2LHd33g011759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211736 SWODY2 SPC AC 211735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PFN 30 N PNS 25 NE LUL 20 SSW GWO 65 ENE PBF 20 SSW JBR 30 NW DYR 55 WSW HOP 50 NE MSL 35 WNW RMG 35 E ATL 35 WSW AGS 55 S AGS 40 NE AYS 30 SSW AYS 35 SSW VLD 25 ENE PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LCH 50 NNW ESF 25 ESE HOT 35 SSW HRO 35 ENE SGF 45 SSW STL 20 NNW EVV 35 S LEX 35 NNW HSS 25 WNW AVL SPA 45 SSW GSO 20 ENE RDU 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... DAB 10 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL LMT 65 NNW 4LW BNO 45 WNW OWY BAM 50 NNW TPH BIH MER 50 NW SAC 50 NW RBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 25 SSE SHV 15 SSE PGO MKO 15 NNE BVO 35 ESE EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY PKB 35 W SHD 35 ESE CHO 10 SSE NHK 30 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS...TN...SRN OH VALLEYS INTO THE SERN U.S. AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO AR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN AR SWD THROUGH ERN LA BY MID AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN TN...CNTRL AL...GA AND SC DURING THE DAY. ...SRN AR...MS...AL...GA INTO PARTS OF SC AND NC... MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF AR...LA...AND MS EARLY TUESDAY. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN AR INTO LA AND MS WHERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SURFACE BASED. INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR A MINIMUM DUE TO TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES. WARM...MOIST MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING S OF MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/SRN AL INTO GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. ...CNTRL/NERN AR THROUGH WRN TN... TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MCS. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 07:03:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 02:03:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503220702.j2M72crr021692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220700 SWODY2 SPC AC 220659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 25 SSW FLO 25 N AGS 10 N AND 30 E HSS 15 SW PSK 35 NNW RIC 25 SSE NHK WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PNS 30 SW MGM 15 NE 0A8 25 E TUP 30 WSW PAH 20 SW MTO 45 W FWA 10 WSW CLE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AST 15 E LWS 20 SW 3HT 40 W 4BQ 25 NE BFF 45 ENE LIC 45 N CAO 40 SSE LVS 85 ESE SOW 30 NNW PHX 40 E DAG 45 S BIH 50 SSW SVE 45 NNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN VA...NC AND NRN SC... ...MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN CAROLINAS... A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD HELP WRAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO ERN VA AND NE NC DURING THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING BEHIND THE LINE COULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE SFC LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF MINI-SUPERCELLS DEVELOP IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST AND FORCED ASCENT SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. ...FLORIDA... A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN GA EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS NRN FL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE MORNING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE LINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NCNTRL FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES ENEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 17:28:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 12:28:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503221727.j2MHRmdJ008619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221723 SWODY2 SPC AC 221722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 NNW CAE 30 NNE HKY PSK 35 NNE ROA 30 ESE CHO 25 WSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AST 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 20 E SNY 20 ENE LAA 40 WSW CAO 25 NW ABQ 40 NNE INW 55 NNE LAS 45 S NFL 35 WSW SVE 10 WNW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PFN 40 E TOI 15 NE ANB 30 ESE BNA SDF 25 N LUK 15 N ZZV 20 WNW AOO 15 N NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF SRN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MID-DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE NC COAST AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS S OF THE WARM FRONT. A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING. DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET SHOULD SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN JET EXIT REGION AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE S OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM NC INTO SRN VA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE JET SPREADS EWD. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT INTO SC AND GA MAY BE LIMITED...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN DRY SLOT AND TENDENCY FOR THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE. WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SERN GA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL FL... A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SERN GA THROUGH NRN FL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE LINE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN FAIRLY STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWY FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN WARM SECTOR. THE VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LINE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 06:43:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 01:43:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503230643.j2N6h9Up021104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230641 SWODY2 SPC AC 230639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MKO 50 E GAG 45 NE DDC 35 WNW CNK 50 ESE OMA 30 N OTM 10 E DBQ 20 S MKE TOL UNI 10 W JKL BNA 55 WSW ARG 20 S MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNW MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ONP 60 WNW 27U 25 WNW WRL 20 ESE CPR 15 SSW FCL ALS 35 WSW 4SL 20 SSE FLG 50 NNE TRM 25 NNE OXR 10 WNW SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN KS/NCNTRL MO/WCNTRL IL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN OZARKS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING THE 40S F BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH STORM INITIATION POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 03Z IN NRN MO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY STARTING ABOVE 750 MB WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 17:36:54 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 12:36:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503231736.j2NHaLhQ023192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231734 SWODY2 SPC AC 231733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNW MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ONP YKM 27U JAC 40 S LND 15 WNW FCL AKO IML LNK DSM DBQ SBN DAY LEX MSL TUP GLH ELD TXK PGO JLN EMP 45 N DDC 35 ESE LIC COS 10 ESE ALS FMN SGU DRA SAC ACV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THIS REGIME IS COMPRISED OF INTERACTING SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES EARLY THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...DIGS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z FRIDAY...FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL STALL/WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINING WEAK ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INTERSECTION OF REMNANT FRONT/SEA BREEZE...ALONG COASTAL AREAS...OR PERHAPS JUST INLAND...ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF PALM BEACH...MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST AREAS. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOISTEN ENVIRONMENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI/ILLINOIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...BUT INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR STORMS ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLTEX. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ..KERR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 06:16:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 01:16:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503240616.j2O6GBXl003444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240614 SWODY2 SPC AC 240612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ABQ 55 NNE SAD 30 W PHX 25 NNW EED 45 NNE DRA 30 NW ELY 55 NE ENV 30 SW BPI 40 WNW RWL LAR 30 ESE DEN 30 SSE PUB 40 S RTN 25 SSW ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS 25 SW VCT 45 S SAT 30 NNW HDO 20 N SJT 60 S CDS 15 SSW LTS 15 NE ADM 20 ENE FSM UNO 20 WNW HUF 25 NNE DAY 15 SSE HLG 15 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 NW CEW 35 SSE CSG 10 NNW MCN 40 ESE ATL 10 W ATL 30 SSE BHM 10 ENE MEI 30 SW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NEWD TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER-TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 26/00Z SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OR NE TX BY 06Z. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DUE TO A NEWD MOVEMENT OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z IN NE TX SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/COASTAL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY 00Z. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN VA AND NRN NC COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. ...CNTRL FL... SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN CNTRL FL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILES WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 17:34:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 12:34:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503241734.j2OHYNvT026041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241732 SWODY2 SPC AC 241731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT 15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50 SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO AT 26/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. ...FL/GA... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY 42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...TN VALLEY... ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...TX... LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 17:43:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 12:43:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503241743.j2OHh6Tr002737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241740 SWODY2 SPC AC 241739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT 15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50 SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA... CORRECTED FOR DATE REFERENCE ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO AT 25/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. ...FL/GA... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY 42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...TN VALLEY... ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...TX... LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 17:54:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 12:54:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503241754.j2OHsFaM014807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241752 SWODY2 SPC AC 241751 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT 15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50 SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA... CORRECTED FOR DATE REFERENCE ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO AT 25/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. ...FL/GA... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY 42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...TN VALLEY... ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 25/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...TX... LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 06:44:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:44:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503250644.j2P6iA4C014742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250642 SWODY2 SPC AC 250641 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 50 S LFK 45 WNW LFK 25 NNE TYR 15 ENE TXK 40 NNE GLH 25 NE CBM 40 NW AUO 40 WNW ABY 30 E MAI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GLS 15 S CLL 20 WNW TPL SEP 45 SW ADM 20 NW PGO 50 N LIT 10 SW DYR 25 W BNA 30 ESE CSV AND 15 ENE AGS 35 SSE SAV ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE PSX 50 N HDO 20 ESE INK 25 SSW ROW 10 NNE 4CR 15 N SAF 50 SSE ALS 35 ENE TAD 20 WSW EHA 45 WSW GAG 45 NE CSM 20 NNE MKO 15 ESE UNO PAH 35 ESE OWB 30 N LOZ 20 SW GSO 20 SSW FAY 20 S CRE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTH ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS AR...PARTS OF TN...NRN MS/AL...GA/FL...AND WRN SC... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL... HIGH WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... A POWERFUL EARLY SPRING TROUGH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SCNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW /70-80KT AT 500MB OVER TX BY SATURDAY EVENING/ WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO LA. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND FUEL WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS NRN FL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...ERN TX INTO AR/LA/MS/AL... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ERN TX AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN STRONG FORCING SPREADING EAST INTO THIS REGION...AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND PRONOUNCED SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY LATE MORNING. STORMS NEAR THE FRONT/LOW WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THIS AIR MASS AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED FROM ERN TX INTO LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...MODEST CAPPING...AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY BECOMING TORNADIC. ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT...AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN/NEAR THE FEED OF ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO FOR A COUPLE OF LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN BROAD WARM SECTOR FCST EWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAMILIES OF SUPERCELLS WITH CYCLIC TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO MS AND PARTS OF AL THROUGH THE EVENING. ...TN VLY TO SOUTHEAST... MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD TSTMS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE TN VLY EWD TO GA/SC. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NRN AND ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO A FAST MOVING SEVERE SQUALL LINE FROM MS/AL EAST TO GA/SC. ETA IS ALSO FCSTG AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX DURING THE NIGHT...FROM THE FL PNHDL NEWD ACROSS GA AND SRN SC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...FAST MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ...WEST TX... COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH HAIL COULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 17:25:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 12:25:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503251724.j2PHOaSI008785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251720 SWODY2 SPC AC 251719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GLS 50 SW LFK 35 S TYR 45 NNW GGG 20 ENE TXK 40 NNE GLH 25 NE CBM 40 NW AUO 40 WNW ABY 30 E MAI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 35 SW CLL 25 W TPL SEP 45 SW ADM 20 NW PGO 50 N LIT 30 SW DYR 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 50 N HDO 20 ESE INK 25 SSW ROW 10 NNE 4CR 15 N SAF 50 SSE ALS 35 ENE TAD 20 WSW EHA 45 WSW GAG 45 NE CSM 20 NNE MKO 15 ESE UNO PAH 35 ESE OWB 30 N LOZ 45 ENE TRI RDU 30 W HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE SERN STATES... WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ERN TX ACROSS LA...MS...AL AND POSSIBLY INTO GA AND FL. ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE S-CNTRL STATES. 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE FROM CNTRL/SRN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...WHILE 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO ERN TX DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E-CNTRL TX TO OFF THE SC COAST BY 27/12Z. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING NEWD INTO NRN MS BY SUNDAY MORNING ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SERN CONUS... TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX/ARKLATEX WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD ACROSS REGION. APPEARS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY /LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH SLY/SWLY LLJ/ WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THIS LEAD SYSTEM...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS AL/MS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND GA/SC SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA/MS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF EVOLVING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN TX AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FACTOR INITIALLY LIMITING SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT GREATER THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL. ..MEAD.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 06:57:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 01:57:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503260657.j2Q6v5wp022430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260654 SWODY2 SPC AC 260653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AQQ 45 NE DHN 15 E LGC 35 E ANB 10 E GAD 25 SSW HSV 10 SW MSL 20 WNW MSL 50 NNW MSL 45 WSW BNA 30 S BWG 55 E BWG 40 SW LOZ TYS 60 SSE TYS 25 N AND SPA 30 SSE CLT 20 NNE FLO 10 S CRE ...CONT... 20 ENE JAX 15 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30 S FMY ...CONT... 30 S CEW 30 W DHN 25 NE TOI 35 S ANB 20 E BHM 45 SSW MSL 10 SE TUP 30 NNE UOX 25 ENE DYR 45 NNW HOP 10 ESE OWB 30 W LEX 30 E LEX 30 SSW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 20 NW TRI 15 WNW HSS AVL 20 ENE HKY 30 NW RWI 40 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 60 NNW CEW 15 S 0A8 20 SW TCL 30 ESE GWO 55 E MLU 35 SSW ELD 40 SSE HOT 35 ENE JBR 25 WNW EVV 50 E BMG 40 W UNI 30 N SHD 15 N NHK 35 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE...EXTREME SRN KY...MUCH OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM EXTREME NERN MS TO NC AND SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF FL... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH NOW IN FORMATIVE STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE MS VLY...AND THEN ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 90-120M PER 12 HOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH FROM TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS BELT OF HIGH SPEED MID LEVEL FLOW OF 90-100KT SPREADS ACROSS TN/GA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD. PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE WILL START OUT SUNDAY OVER MS AND THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE TN VLY DURING THE DAY WHILE DEEPENING. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NWD ALONG THE WRN PLATEAU OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. MEANWHILE...CAROLINAS WEDGE/PIEDMONT FRONT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ENEWD TO THE NC/SC BORDER AND THEN NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL NC. AS PRIMARY CYCLONE BEGINS TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE FRONTAL WAVES WILL LIKELY RIPPLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PIEDMONT FRONT FROM NRN GA TO SC/NC. COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST FROM AL AND MOVE ACROSS GA/NRN FL...AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ...KY/TN VLY/NRN GA... SURFACE LOW AND MOIST WARM SECTOR ARE FCST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE MORNING BENEATH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM INTENSE BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW. BASED ON LATEST NAM GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS...THE AREA FROM HUNTSVILLE/AL TO NASHVILLE/TN MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM/WEDGE FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO SC AS INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LONG-LIVED CELLS TRACKING ENEWD ALONG...AS OPPOSED TO ACROSS...THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SC...AND PERHAPS INTO NC THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ...SRN GA/NRN FL/CAROLINAS... SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR ACROSS THESE AREAS DESTABILIZES BENEATH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA IS INITIALLY LIMITED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS CAN INITIATE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND MOVE INTO SC FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLE REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR AND PERHAPS EVOLVE INTO A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS NRN FL AND SC LATE BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ..CARBIN.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 17:39:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 12:39:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503261738.j2QHcoHf010598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261734 SWODY2 SPC AC 261733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 30 W TOI 25 SW BHM 40 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 15 NW HOP 30 ENE BWG 35 WSW LOZ 20 N TYS 30 SE TYS 20 N GSP 15 SSW CLT 30 N FLO 10 SSW ILM ...CONT... 20 ENE JAX 15 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MOB 20 N MOB 30 NNE MEI 20 NNE MEM 35 NNE DYR 35 NE PAH 25 E EVV 10 S LUK 35 NNW HTS 30 SSW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 30 SSW PSK 60 SW RIC 20 NE ORF ...CONT... MLB 30 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW FCA 55 E S80 20 ENE BOI 55 SSE BNO 50 S 4LW 15 NNE TVL 15 ENE MER 35 SE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BVE 35 NNE MCB 50 WNW JAN 40 NE MLU 30 WNW ELD 20 N PGO 25 S UMN 15 S MTO 20 NE IND 35 WNW CMH 25 E LBE 30 E CXY 25 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN...AL...GA...SC AND FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS...CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN...AL...GA...SC AND FL. ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 95-105 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AT 27/12Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO THE SERN CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER MS DELTA SUNDAY MORNING...PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO ERN KY BY 27/12Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WHILE CAROLINAS WEDGE/PIEDMONT FRONT RETREATS NWD MUCH MORE SLOWLY. FINALLY...COLD FRONT FROM SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH ERN MS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER ERN KY SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL BY MONDAY MORNING. ...TN VALLEY/AL EWD ACROSS GA/SC AND NRN FL... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD OVERALL SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...WARRANTING WWD SHIFT IN MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION REGIME FROM PORTIONS OF TN/AL EWD INTO GA AND POSSIBLY SC. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AND INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE GULF...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT SPREADING N OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR /I.E. N OF PIEDMONT FRONT/ OWING TO THE STRONG WARM/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER. MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CLOSER TO SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NRN/CNTRL AL. HERE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GA ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES...WILL ALSO DEVELOP S OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 06:34:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 01:34:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503270634.j2R6YBxa027661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270632 SWODY2 SPC AC 270631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 35 E RWI 40 ENE DAN 15 ENE LYH 10 NNE CHO 15 NNW DCA 20 SSW ILG 15 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FMY 10 N MLB ...CONT... 45 ENE CHS 20 WNW FLO 40 ESE SPA 55 E CHA 35 WSW CSV 55 E BWG 30 SSW UNI 15 NE LBE 30 W AVP 20 NNE POU 20 NW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF 20 SSW CYS 15 W ASE 30 SSE 4HV 40 SW BCE 50 ENE LAS 45 WSW LAS 45 N NID 65 NE MER 30 SW NFL 45 N LOL 45 NW WMC 85 SE BNO 35 WNW BOI 80 WSW 27U 25 SSE LVM 25 WNW 4BQ 10 NNW Y22 60 SSW JMS 25 SSW AXN 25 NNW RWF 10 ENE FSD 30 SSE MHE 10 E VTN 55 NW MHN 10 SE BFF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM NERN NC TO SRN NJ... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT EARLY SPRING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN NEWD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE A STRONG AND EXTENSIVE UPPER WAVE WILL DEVELOP INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IN THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYSTEM DRIVING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS THIS PERIOD AS INTENSE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. WRN TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WRN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ...NERN NC TO DELMARVA AND SRN NJ... AS DEEPENING/REDEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS VA TO DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SWATH OF LOW 60S SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FCST TO SPREAD NWD FROM ERN NC TO CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE EARLIER TRENDS INDICATING AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS BENEATH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET. TIGHT ISOTACH GRADIENT ACROSS THE NOSE OF THE JET CORE...AND APPROACH OF WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION... AND POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...AND NEAR THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE WIND DAMAGE... HAIL...AND TORNADO THREATS WILL EXIST OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREA. OTHER CLUSTERS OF LESS ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...MAY OCCUR WITHIN/BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE REGION DURING PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. ..CARBIN.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 16:33:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 11:33:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503271632.j2RGWLim025133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271621 SWODY2 SPC AC 271620 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 30 S RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 10 NNE CHO 15 NNW DCA 20 SSW ILG 15 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 45 ENE CHS 20 WNW FLO 40 ESE SPA 55 E CHA 35 WSW CSV 55 E BWG 30 SSW UNI 15 NE LBE 30 W AVP 35 WSW PSF 20 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF 20 SSW CYS 15 W ASE 30 SSE 4HV 40 SW BCE 50 ENE LAS 45 WSW LAS 45 N NID 65 NE MER 25 WSW RNO 20 NE SVE 20 E 4LW 35 S BNO 10 WSW BKE 20 SSE S80 25 SSE LVM 25 WNW 4BQ 10 NNW Y22 60 SSW JMS 25 SSW AXN 25 NNW RWF 10 ENE FSD 30 SSE MHE 10 E VTN 55 NW MHN 10 SE BFF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN NC NWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AT 28/12Z WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS REBOUNDING FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE IN THE W...NEXT TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE W COAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN KY MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER CNTRL APPALACHIAN PIEDMONT...PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 29/12Z. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD ALLOW PIEDMONT FRONT TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AS A WARM FRONT WHILE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY. IN THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...FOCUSING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME NON-SEVERE TSTMS. ...ERN NC NWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS... STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 28/12Z ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NC/VA WITHIN ZONE OF INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS. GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THESE WIND MAXIMA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FROM ERN WV/WRN VA EWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY AS POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD CORE SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREA. ..MEAD.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 05:54:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 00:54:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503280554.j2S5s3FT030640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280551 SWODY2 SPC AC 280550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 60 WNW GTF 30 WSW BZN 45 NE JAC 50 SE RIW 30 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 50 ESE LIC 50 SE GLD 35 ENE HLC 20 SSE HSI 15 S OLU 20 NE OFK 15 NE YKN 30 SSW HON 55 SE MBG 40 NE MBG 40 NNW JMS 30 E DVL 35 NNW TVF 25 SSW INL 30 N DLH 40 S IWD 20 NNE AUW 40 W OSH 30 SE LNR 30 WSW MLI 50 NNE COU 50 S OJC 20 WSW PNC 35 SSW GAG 25 SSE DHT 30 NNW LVS 15 SW DRO 10 WSW 4BL 35 NNW BCE 20 W ELY 25 SE BAM 40 NE BNO 25 NE EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST...THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S. WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE FIRST IMPULSE TO PRODUCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER CA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN LIFT ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND LITTLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FCST TO STREAM EWD/SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MAINTAIN LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. A BELT OF FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS...ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND THEN NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEFINE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIE BENEATH THE SRN EDGE OF THIS FASTER FLOW... ORIGINATING NEAR A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY AND TRAILING SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THEN WWD/NWWD TO THE FRONT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY... STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ACT ON A WARM/DRY AIR MASS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN CO ACROSS KS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT PREFRONTAL MIXING/HEATING...AND THEN FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY THEN SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR RETURNING NWD ON STRENGTHENING LLJ. MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY...COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED...A SMALL SEVERE AREA/HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...ROCKIES... SPORADIC AND SHORT-LIVED WEAK TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES GIVEN LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND HEATING COMBINE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 17:25:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 12:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503281724.j2SHOPrw000904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281721 SWODY2 SPC AC 281720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB HLN LND RWL LAR CYS SNY LBF BBW BUB BKX AXN BRD 50 SE DLH AUW LNR DBQ IRK OJC ICT P28 LBL EHA RTN FMN U17 MLF ELY BAM PDT 55 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ...FEATURING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE -- INDICATED BOTH IN 12Z RAOB ANALYSES AND LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS -- IS FCST TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...LEAVING SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE FROM ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO HUDSON BAY. UPSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS FROM MT TO TX DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING DAY-2. PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CROSSING PORTIONS MO/IA BY END OF PERIOD...BASED MORE ON 12Z SPECTRAL/ETA AND 9Z SREF GUIDANCE THAN LESS AMPLIFIED NGM. AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING NOW UNDERWAY OVER GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH APCH OF WRN STATES MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BECOME FRONTOGENETIC BY 29/18Z AND MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS BY 30/00Z. JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING EVENING AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MO/IA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD OVER KS/OK AND NWRN/N-CENTAL TX. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK ACROSS PORTIONS KS/NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY. BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...STRENGTH OF COOLING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH 30S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING. HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 350 J/KG EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WITH SUCH LIMITED BUOYANCY...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...AFTER DARK. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FARTHER N ACROSS E-CENTRAL PLAINS AND CORN BELT WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED SHORT TURNAROUND TIME AND LIMITED MODIFICATION OPPORTUNITY. THIS INCLUDES AIR MASS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE CENTRAL/WRN GULF AND PARCELS RESIDING OVER NW GULF WITH 40S F SFC DEW POINTS. THOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN LLJ THAT FAR N...STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SATURATION OF ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED PARCELS IN ELEVATED CONVEYOR -- MAINLY W-NE OF SFC LOW. RESULT MAY BE ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-300 J/KG AND CONTINUATION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION FROM WRN KS/NEB. MODIFIED WRN GULF AIR MASS MAY RESULT IN NARROW CORRIDOR OF 50S TO LOW 60S SFC DEW POINTS ERN TX/OK BY END OF PERIOD...HOWEVER ETA SEEMS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS. COMBINATION OF WEAK MOISTURE...VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIMITING CONVERGENCE...WLY/SWLY ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CINH...SHOULD KEEP WARM SECTOR CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVER SRN PLAINS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 07:09:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 02:09:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503290708.j2T78WGr001197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290701 SWODY2 SPC AC 290700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MSN 10 SW MTW 10 NE MBL HTL 25 NNE MBS 20 NNE ARB 15 SSE FWA 20 E LAF 35 NNW DNV 35 SSE MMO 20 SE JVL 35 E MSN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 25 NNW UCA 40 S ROC 25 SSE DUJ 20 SE MGW 35 WSW BKW 70 NNW AHN 35 W MCN 10 WSW DHN 30 NNW MSY 25 W BTR 20 SSE POE 40 NNE POE 45 SSE HOT 25 W MEM 40 WNW DYR 10 WSW PAH MVN 20 ENE ALN 40 N COU 30 NE STJ 50 ENE OMA 30 SSE MKT 70 S DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 40 ESE Y22 50 E CDR 25 N MCK 25 ESE SLN 30 N JLN 45 SSW JLN 45 NE OKC 45 E DHT 20 WNW 4SL 80 S 4BL 25 WNW 4HV 20 SW EVW 35 ESE IDA 25 WSW BZN 25 WSW GTF 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM THE ROCKIES TO MIDWEST AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE THROUGH A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THE LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LWR CO RIVER VLY...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM MO/IA TO MI DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID/UPR MS VLY...AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY. THIS EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER WLY JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NWD FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO IL/IND. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SERN WI SWD TO THE IL/IND BORDER AREA. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP CYCLONE TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SFC HEATING AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM (120M 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER) WILL AID TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WOULD SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED FROM NRN IND INTO LWR MI. WHILE PATTERN SUGGESTS LINEAR STORM MODE WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND/OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION ...LWR MS VLY TO TN VLY... STRENGTHENING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE EDGE OF CAPPING INVERSION IS FCST TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS DEEP LAYER SLOPED ASCENT INTENSIFIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET. FCST MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW HAIL STORMS. HOWEVER... GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG UPSTREAM CAP...AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMING OF INITIATION WILL CHOOSE TO KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 07:18:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 02:18:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503300717.j2U7H7ec007989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300714 SWODY2 SPC AC 300713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 35 SE CLL 40 ESE ACT 40 E DAL 15 N PRX 35 WSW HOT 60 NNE GLH 25 ESE TUP 15 SW GAD 35 NNE MCN 55 SW AGS 50 W SAV 30 SW AYS 35 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DAB 15 SE SRQ ...CONT... 10 E PSX 30 NW VCT 15 ENE SEP 60 NNE ABI 10 NNW PVW 30 ENE DHT 20 SE LAA 50 WNW GLD 20 SE AIA 15 NE PHP 40 WNW HON 30 W BKX 30 NE SUX 10 SSE OMA 15 NNW TOP 15 ENE CNU 10 NE JLN 30 SW UNO 20 S PAH 15 E BWG 25 NW LUK 10 WNW FDY 45 NE GRR 25 SW OSH 65 NNE EAU 90 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 35 ENE CXY 30 SSW ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT LEAST TWO SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL BE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. THE STRONGER IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST FROM THE OH VLY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD TO THE LOWER MS VLY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND/UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY AND GULF COAST DURING LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN ANALYSIS OF MODEL TRENDS FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD INDICATES THE NAM HAS DIVERGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW INDICATES A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OK/N TX BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS...WHILE SIMILAR TO EARLIER GFS AND NAM RUNS...SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH BUT WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND WEAKER WITH RESULTANT SFC DEVELOPMENT OVER LA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN FCST STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FCSTS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ...ERN TX/LA EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/GULF COAST AND SOUTH... THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND TN VLY DURING THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WWD TO THE MS VLY GIVEN WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY. LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AS FORCING WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. IF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND FASTER THAN LATEST NAM FCST... WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER SFC DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION PER LATEST GFS. IF THE UPPER WAVE IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FARTHER SOUTH...PER LATEST NAM...MORE LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. A COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE MAXIMIZED FROM PARTS OF ERN TX/WRN LA TO LA/MS FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AS DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...FOR VIGOROUS TSTM UPDRAFTS. STORMS MAY BE UNDERCUT OR EVEN FORM ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH...GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND LAPSE RATES....WOULD FAVOR PRIMARILY HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IF SFC LOW IS DEEPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR STRONGER...THERE COULD BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE WRN GULF IN ITS WAKE. ..CARBIN.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:36:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:36:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503301735.j2UHZwla020759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301730 SWODY2 SPC AC 301729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BPT HOU 50 SSW CLL 35 SE TPL 35 NNW PRX HOT MEM MKL 20 S BWG 45 NNW CSV CSV RMG MAI AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 45 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 S PSX NIR 45 ENE COT SAT 30 W ACT SEP PVW 40 W EHA GLD LBF VTN Y22 45 ENE DIK 60 SE MOT 45 NE JMS RWF SPW OMA EMP CNU JLN UMN ARG HOP SDF TOL ARB MBL ESC MQT 80 NE CMX ...CONT... MSS JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E TX TO MID TN...AL...AND WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS. MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN ALOFT ARE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA AND OVER 4-CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGION. LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONT DURING PERIOD. MEANWHILE TRAILING SYSTEM SHOULD FORM CLOSED 500 MB VORTEX OVER SRN PLAINS...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THAT SUPPORT SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z SPECTRAL/NGM AND 9Z ETA-SREF FCSTS BETTER THAN MORE OPEN-WAVE 12Z/OPERATIONAL ETA. AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS MS/AL EARLY DAY-2. WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS ARKLATEX AREA IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER E TX AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL LOW. EXPECT RESULTANT FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE TO MOVE FROM NWRN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS AND NRN AL THURSDAY NIGHT AS TRAILING FRONT SWEEPS SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. ...SERN CONUS... CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS TN VALLEY SWWD OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/ERN LA... CONTINUING REGIME FROM LATTER PART OF DAY-1 PERIOD. REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. AS LEADING MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND EJECTS AWAY FROM AREA...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/COUPLES DURING EARLY-MID MORNING...LLJ WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E DURING AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH APCH OF SECOND UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH LOCATION/MODE OF PREFRONTAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ATTM...BECAUSE OF LIKELY DEPENDENCE ON LOCATION AND CHARACTER OF MESO-BETA SCALE BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM MORNING ACTIVITY. THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER PROBABILITY CORRIDOR FOR NOW...AND LEAVE OPEN POSSIBILITY OF CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS. MESO-ALPHA TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FROM E TX ACROSS SERN STATES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONTINUAL MODIFICATION/ENRICHMENT OF MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW AIR MASS. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM E TX ACROSS MS DELTA REGION. 60-65 KT EFFECTIVE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO MODES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER PROGS REASONABLY INDICATE RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE ELY COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE. STRONG SFC HEATING IS LIKELY...YIELDING WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS THAT SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAILSTONES TO REACH SFC. AFTERNOON/EVENING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FOCI. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY COALESCE INTO MCS AND MOVE E FROM ARKLATEX AREA TOWARD AL/GA...WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL TOWARD GULF COAST. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ALL NIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 06:49:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 01:49:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503310648.j2V6miJG008201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310646 SWODY2 SPC AC 310645 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 45 E LUL 15 SSW MEI 50 SW CBM 10 SSW TUP 15 WNW MSL 35 WNW CHA 25 SSW HSS 25 NNE CLT 30 ENE FAY 30 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 N MLB 15 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE 7R4 25 ESE LFT 30 SW HEZ 50 W GLH 15 WSW PBF 50 SW ARG 25 NE OWB 30 NE LEX 10 E HTS 15 NE EKN 20 WNW HGR 20 E CXY 25 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 50 WNW 3HT 15 SW BZN 15 SW DLN 30 NW 27U 40 ENE LWS 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE CNTRL U.S. TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM A SERIES OF COMPLEX SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH. THE LEADING IMPULSE...NOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA. THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM THIS LEADING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND EXTEND WSWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN GENERALLY WWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THURSDAY (DAY 1). THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVING TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY EVENING (DAY 2). IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE NRN GULF COAST ACROSS GA AND SC. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SC AND INTO ERN NC/VA...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NRN FL. ...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO SFC DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR PENETRATION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS MODELS WITH LATEST GFS FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE SFC LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM. NAM MODEL WAS ALSO INDICATING ONLY LIMITED WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE MODEL. DESPITE THESE CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNCERTAINTY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS AT LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE DAY. TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER AREA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS GA. TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER... DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR PERHAPS FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SC/NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF GREATER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF OR NEAR THESE FEATURES EARLIER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM AL TO THE FL PNHDL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO NRN FL INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL FL BY EARLY SATURDAY. ..CARBIN.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 17:25:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 12:25:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503311724.j2VHOXph006908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311718 SWODY2 SPC AC 311717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE 7R4 15 SSE HEZ 35 NW JAN 10 NNE UOX 35 SW BNA 25 N CSV 35 SW HSS 25 NNE CLT 30 ENE FAY 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 35 WNW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 50 E SHV 10 ESE LIT 50 SW ARG 25 NE OWB 25 NW LEX 40 WSW UNI 30 E PKB 40 SSE LBE 20 E CXY 25 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 50 SE GTF 10 SW BZN 15 SSW DLN 30 NW 27U 30 N S80 40 NNW ALW 15 SW EAT 30 S SEA 20 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EWD TO SERN STATES AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN KS TO TX PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS IT PHASES WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. MODELS AGREE WITH THE PHASING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PHASING/DEEPENING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...THE SLOWER NAM/NAMKF WERE FOLLOWED FOR PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EWD TO GA/NRN FL/SC/NC... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS MS INTO LA IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN FL THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 2. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2 AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD WITH THE DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUS...INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SRN GA/NRN FL. STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH A SWLY MID LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 90 KT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD. LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN MS/WRN AL TO SERN LA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS SQUALL LINE AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE WRN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES ERN GA TO NRN FL BY 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP NEWD INTO SC AND POTENTIALLY SRN NC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 04:38:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 23:38:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503010603.j2163UVS014178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010601 SWODY2 SPC AC 010600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE EKO ENV 35 ESE U24 45 NNW INW 45 NW PRC 35 SE LAS 50 NE TPH 20 SE EKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 55 NNE P07 15 ESE MAF 15 SSE PVW 35 NNW CDS 25 SW OKC 40 ENE PRX 35 NNW SHV 45 NNE POE 30 S HEZ 25 SSW GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST...THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD THROUGH WRN MEAN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DRIFTING NWD OVER ERN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT / LACKING IN STRONG ZONES OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE BAROCLINICITY. ...CENTRAL AND SERN TX EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN OK INTO ADJACENT NRN / NERN TX. THESE STORMS -- PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD WITH TIME ACROSS E TX...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN LA AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS / SHIFTS EWD. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY EXIST WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED. GREATER SEVERE THREAT -- ALBEIT STILL LIMITED -- APPEARS POSSIBLE FURTHER W ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SWD INTO S TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SECOND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST -- PARTICULARLY NWD INTO CENTRAL TX...PERSISTENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE BY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- WITH PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED EXPANSION OF ONGOING E TX / LA CONVECTION SWWD INTO S TX. THOUGH WEAK FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30 TO 50 KT RANGE SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY. THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...LIMITED THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO, ..GOSS.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 16:10:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 11:10:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503011735.j21HZFc1020094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011733 SWODY2 SPC AC 011732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE EKO ENV 35 ESE U24 45 NNW INW 45 NW PRC 35 SE LAS 50 NE TPH 20 SE EKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 45 E DRT 30 SSW JCT 35 SE SJT 50 WSW ABI 50 SSW CDS 15 WSW CSM 35 NW OKC 40 SSE MKO 45 SW HOT ELD 20 E MLU 35 SSE JAN 20 SE LUL 20 N MOB 35 SSE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE BULK OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST/BAJA TO FL WHILE A SERIES OF MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST. ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVES... EMERGING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WILL SPREAD ESEWD FROM ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST FROM THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...IN CONCERT WITH THE MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...TX TO LA GULF COAST... LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUSTAIN AN AREA OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A GENERALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED OVER SCNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORCING AND LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LEND UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ENSEMBLE DATA COULD LEND SUPPORT TO AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR THROUGH 300MB. IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS SCNTRL TX AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...MORNING MCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD TOWARD LA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. PRESENCE OF COOL/STABLE AIRMASS OVER INLAND AREAS OF LA IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAIL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER THETA-E GULF AIRMASS MOVING INLAND ALONG/SOUTH OF A GLS-LCH-LFT LINE DURING THE DAY. IF THIS CAN OCCUR...PRESENCE OF STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ATTM...THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SUCH A THREAT APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...GREAT BASIN... WARMING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS IN WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV/UT/NW AZ. ..CARBIN.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 05:33:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 00:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503020658.j226w10U006390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020655 SWODY2 SPC AC 020654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 40 NE FST 10 ENE HOB 50 NE ALM 25 WNW ABQ 10 NNE GUP U17 35 WNW PUC 25 N EVW 15 SE RWL 25 NNW FCL 35 SE LIC 30 N LBL 50 WSW P28 25 N PNC 35 WSW CNU 35 NNW SZL 40 SSW UIN 15 N STL 30 NNE POF 50 SW JBR 20 NW HOT 20 N GGG 35 WSW POE 35 ENE BTR 15 SE GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH...THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE W COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES -- THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION -- THIS PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SRN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD BE CROSSING THE TX COAST INTO THE WRN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND PARTICULARLY SEVERE THREAT -- ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH VORT MAX CROSSING THE ROCKIES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW / WARM ADVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 2 16:14:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 11:14:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503021738.j22Hcwr4011827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021736 SWODY2 SPC AC 021735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE SJT 35 ESE HOB 35 ESE ROW 25 ENE ONM 10 WSW GUP 75 SE PGA 15 NE U17 45 SSW GJT 30 ESE GUC 45 ENE DHT 25 W CSM 35 SE FSI 40 NNE FTW 15 SSW DAL 30 NNE ACT TPL 35 WSW TPL 30 NE JCT 10 SE SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE FSM 40 W TUL 35 SSW ICT 15 W HUT 15 N SLN 20 NE MHK 10 SW FLV 20 NNW SZL 15 WSW JEF 30 SE VIH 35 NNW POF POF 30 ENE ARG 30 SSW ARG 50 N LIT 25 NE FSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 SSE BTR 10 E MSY 35 NNE BVE ...CONT... 40 S FMY 15 SSW MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR W/NWLY FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE CONUS ALMOST FROM COAST TO COAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND FROM CNTRL CA COAST TO THE PACIFIC NW WHERE SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...PHASING BETWEEN FAST SRN STREAM AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CROSSING TX TODAY WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF TO THE FL KEYS. ELSEWHERE..A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD BAND NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE GREAT BASIN...IS FCST BY LATEST GUIDANCE TO SPREAD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO TX WHILE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING AS IT APPROACHES DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. THE OTHER IMPULSE...NOW CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ALBERTA...IS FCST TO TRANSLATE SEWD WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...NWRN TX... NW FLOW DISTURBANCE SIMILAR TO LAST TWO WILL MOVE FROM FOUR CORNERS AREA TO ERN NM/WRN TX PNHDL DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX HEATING AND PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO STRENGTHEN WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. FORCED ASCENT AND SOME MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER WEST TX FROM EARLY EVENING ON. THIS PROCESS SHOULD FURTHER SPUR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER DARK. MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 150-300 J/KG...AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STOUT /BETTER ORGANIZED/ UPDRAFTS WITH ONE OR TWO HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. ...SERN KS TO OZARKS... SIMILAR SCENARIO AND TIMING AS THE PROCESS MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA FROM SERN KS TO THE OZARKS OF MO/AR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN KS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE MAY COMPENSATE FOR GENERALLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF A COUPLE OF HAIL STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 04:54:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 23:54:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503030619.j236J0AR020307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030617 SWODY2 SPC AC 030615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DAG 20 N NID 45 SSE FAT 20 NW SAC 45 WSW MHS 60 SSW 4LW 20 ENE LOL 50 SSE EKO 35 WNW U24 20 SW 4HV 70 WNW GUP 50 ENE BLH 50 NNE TRM 30 N DAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBB 40 ESE CVS 40 WNW AMA 55 SSW LBL 30 N END 10 NW SGF 25 SW STL 15 WSW LUK 25 NNE HTS 30 WNW BLF 40 SE TYS 25 ENE LGC 25 NNW MGM 35 ESE GWO 25 W ELD 15 WSW GGG 10 NE CLL 50 SE JCT 40 WSW ABI 35 SSW LBB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN RIDGE / ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. THREE MAIN SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE WRN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS CA. THE SECOND...A WEAKER SRN STREAM VORT MAX EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE RED RIVER OF TX / OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE THIRD WILL BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN OK EWD ACROSS AR INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN / CENTRAL TX...AND ALSO ACROSS THE OZARKS / MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THOUGH THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE LIMITED /40S TO LOW 50S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM VORT MAX EXPECTED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING SHOULD HINDER ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OVER TX. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- PERHAPS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OK EWD INTO KY / TN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM...SO WILL INTRODUCE CONDITIONAL 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST. ...SIERRA / WRN GREAT BASIN REGION... UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CA / NV THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE STRONG / SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 15:26:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 10:26:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503031651.j23GpILr023506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031648 SWODY2 SPC AC 031647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PMD 30 NW SMX 30 WNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 30 NE SAC 20 SSE RNO 35 ESE U31 25 WNW MLF 30 S BCE GCN 20 E IGM 60 E DAG 30 W PMD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DAL 15 W MWL 65 NNE ABI 20 NE CDS 35 SSW GAG 25 ESE P28 20 N VIH 40 N SDF 55 WNW HTS 25 SSE HTS 30 NNE TRI 30 WNW HSS 30 NW HSV 40 WSW PBF 20 SW DAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 F ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...KY AND TN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION BEGINNING IN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING WSWWD INTO SRN MO...NRN AR AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN OK DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE OZARKS. THIS DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERED WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS IN THE EVENING HOURS...A RAPID DECREASE IN CELL INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY MID EVENING. ...CA AND SW DESERT... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CA ON DAY 2. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 03/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 04:19:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 23:19:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503040544.j245iZSQ032694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040543 SWODY2 SPC AC 040542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE IPL 30 SW DAG 30 N LAS 30 SW CEZ 35 N 4CR 45 SSE LBB 15 S CLL 20 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SAV 30 S AHN 30 SSW CSV LEX 15 N HTS 20 W SSU 25 SSW LYH 25 NNE RWI 25 N HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA AT 05/12Z IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY SWD OR SEWD THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE EJECTING EWD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO TX. A MORE ENERGETIC AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONCURRENTLY PERSIST FROM CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AT 05/12Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD TO THE NC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE W...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SWD. OVER TX...A WEAK WARM FRONT /EFFECTIVELY DEMARKING NWWD RETURN OF SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS/ WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX SEWD INTO SERN TX. ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY OWING TO SWLY OR WLY TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TSTMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EVENING. ...TX... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWWD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO DRT BY AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT RESULTING FROM PERSISTENT SELY FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX IN CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN TX INTO S TX. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER SWRN TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY. ...SRN AZ... POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION ON SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING E/NE OF UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..MEAD.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 16:04:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 11:04:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503041728.j24HSqwt010871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041726 SWODY2 SPC AC 041725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW IPL 45 NE DAG 35 N LAS 45 S BCE 25 E FMN 25 NW PVW SEP 20 ESE TPL 60 NNE VCT 30 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SAV 45 WSW AGS 10 SE CHA 55 NNW CSV 50 ENE LEX 15 N CRW 20 WSW CHO 10 ESE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS... AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SLIDE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN SERN NC SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 300 MB BUT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WOULD RESULT IN FAST MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST THREAT FOR WIND WOULD BE IN THE 20Z SAT TO 00Z SUN TIMEFRAME AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PEAK IN THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR (ERN SC AND SERN NC). ANY MARGINAL WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE IN THE 02Z TO 04Z SUN TIMEFRAME. ...WRN AND SRN TX... AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT INTO THE SRN ROCKIES WITH STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADING WRN AND SRN TX DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ADVECT 55 TO 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO TX HILL COUNTRY AND ACROSS SW TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MORNING CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SW TX AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IN SOUTH TX MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DECOUPLING OCCURS...HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. ...SRN AND CNTRL AZ... THE UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO FAR NWRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SWRN US SATURDAY. SFC HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE MTNS WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 03/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 5 04:10:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 23:10:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503050535.j255ZRKa021810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050533 SWODY2 SPC AC 050532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 55 SE EED 50 SW GCN 55 SSE PGA 15 NNW ABQ 50 NE CVS 25 S LTS 30 NNW MWL 40 S SEP 30 W AUS 35 W NIR 30 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM OWING TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY FEATURE IN SRN STREAM IS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO N-CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN U.S. DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN NM INTO WRN/SWRN TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW INTO SRN NM AND SWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED AIR MASS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...PRIOR TO SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES AOA 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-25 M/S...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WRN AND W-CNTRL TX AS LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ..MEAD.. 03/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 05:03:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 00:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503070628.j276SEQe006452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070607 SWODY2 SPC AC 070606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AQQ 15 WSW AYS 20 SE FAY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN 40 SE AND 40 S MRB 15 NNW ILG 25 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE FCL 45 ESE LIC 35 SSW OKC 35 NNE DAL 40 SSE SEP 30 SW BWD 35 NW SJT 50 ENE HOB 60 WSW TCC 45 E GJT 40 ESE CAG 10 ENE FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 W P07 45 NNW DRT 35 WSW COT 40 WSW ALI 30 SSE CRP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SERN STATES. UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT 08/12Z WILL ALSO AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA INTO SERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA BY 09/00Z. FARTHER W...LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA... STRONGLY-FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SWWD INTO THE ERN FL PNHDL. WHILE INFLOW AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH QUITE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /OWING TO PROXIMITY OF 100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SRN EXTENSION OF THIS SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PRIOR TO COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. ..MEAD.. 03/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 04:13:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 23:13:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503080537.j285bbRS013290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080535 SWODY2 SPC AC 080534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PSX 45 ENE CLL 45 N GGG 35 ENE TXK 35 WNW GLH 25 SE JAN 30 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 50 W Y22 40 W RAP 25 WSW WRL 55 SW MQM 55 ENE BKE 30 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AT 09/12Z WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE... NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO CNTRL PLAINS SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AT 09/12Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE NERN GULF WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER N...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO MN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES. ...E TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL CANADA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND STORM INTENSITY LIMITED BY VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 16:07:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 11:07:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503081732.j28HW8i1014116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081729 SWODY2 SPC AC 081728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 65 NNE VCT 50 SW LFK 50 NW POE 25 NE ESF MCB 35 SSE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 NE MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT NW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS TX ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE LAPSE RATE PROFILE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL INCREASE ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IDENTIFYING ANY MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WSWLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MIGHT EXIST ABOVE 850MB TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 10 17:12:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2005 12:12:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503101712.j2AHCDDR029315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101709 SWODY2 SPC AC 101709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST THU MAR 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SAV 65 SSW AGS 10 SW AGS 30 NW CAE 30 ESE DAN 45 W ORF 35 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PFN 15 SE AUO 40 SE TYS 30 W BLF 15 WSW EKN MRB 35 NE BWI 25 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE MKG 20 NNW FWA 20 N SDF 30 NW BWG 35 SSW PAH 45 NE UNO 35 WSW JEF 30 SE P35 25 E DSM 30 NNW CID 20 NE MKE 25 SE MKG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB 25 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...ERN CAROLINAS... ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SEWD FROM THE CORN BELT/GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CP AIR MASSES WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC BASIN WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT...HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WITH TIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/TSTMS. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP COULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. PRESENCE OF STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN /50-55KTS AT H7 AND 100+ AOA H5/ AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WOULD BE ACROSS ERN NC...BUT ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SC BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 03/10/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 11 17:10:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 12:10:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503111710.j2BHA8k3021022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111705 SWODY2 SPC AC 111704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT ESEWD INTO NRN MEXICO POSSIBLY ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THE BORDER OF AZ DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LIMITING THE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ...AZ... UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD NWRN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...THUS LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/11/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvURa005736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120649 SWODY2 SPC AC 120648 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 50 NNE CLL 45 SSE PRX 40 S HOT 30 NE UOX 50 S BNA 15 NNE TYS 30 N RDU 30 NNE HSE ...CONT... 15 SE CHS 50 ESE MCN 25 SW ABY 15 SW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO...WILL RETROGRADE WSWWD THE NEXT TWO DAYS REACHING MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SWLY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS CHANGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN U.S. IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SSEWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ERN PACIFIC RIDGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL MOVE INTO TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NC WSWWD TO NRN TX AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN/NRN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. ...LA/SRN AR EWD TO AL... SLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE QUALITY OF THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST GIVEN WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE ADVECTING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD ON SUNDAY CONTINUING TO EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SERN TX TO SRN MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND THE CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. MODELS DO...HOWEVER...INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM MAINLY LA ENEWD TO GA/ CAROLINAS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING UVVS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A WLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 19:57:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 14:57:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503131957.j2DJvVJl005763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121710 SWODY2 SPC AC 121709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BPT 30 N LFK 25 NNW TXK 25 NW LIT 35 NE DYR 45 SE BWG 10 NE HSS 30 N RDU 30 NNE HSE ...CONT... 20 E CHS 30 NE MCN 35 SSW CSG 50 NNW CEW 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FHU 35 N TUS 25 SW INW 35 NE GUP 25 S SAF 35 SE 4CR 20 ESE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUN. LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO CNTRL/WRN NOAM. WAVE TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO TRACK FARTHER W...THROUGH THE HEART OF AMERICA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OH VLY NOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN NC TO N TX 12Z SUN...NRN SC TO SCNTRL TX 00Z MON AND CNTRL SC TO THE WRN GULF BASIN BY 12Z MON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT. ...LWR MS VLY/DEEP S... BOUNDARY LAYER RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH SUN. FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A WSWLY COMPONENT... ADVECTING A STOUT EML /OBSERVED IN SRN PLAINS 12Z SOUNDINGS/ ATOP THIS MOISTURE. THUS...DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION/TSTMS TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S. ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING IN A ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF AN OH VLY MID-LEVEL JET. FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLD NEAR-SEVERE HAILSTONES IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 03/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 07:09:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 02:09:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503140709.j2E79tRK016804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140705 SWODY2 SPC AC 140704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 30 S LRD ...CONT... 40 W FHU 60 WNW SAD 60 ESE SOW ONM 45 N ROW 30 WNW LBB 60 WNW ABI 45 WSW BWD 40 W ACT 45 NNE TYR 40 WSW HOT 20 ENE LIT 45 S MKL 20 S CHA 40 NNW AGS 30 SSW CRE ...CONT... 15 NNW PBI 45 ENE FMY 25 S SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 13/12Z ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME PER WV IMAGERY. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW...NOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA...AS A SEPARATE FEATURE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH. THIS CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE AN OPEN WAVE OVER SRN BAJA AT 12Z TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE LOWER TN VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE GULF INTO DEEP S TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND REDEVELOP NWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 40 KT OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS LLJ EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN BAJA TROUGH ACROSS TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE WARM SECTOR FROM MOVING INLAND. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A PORTION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN THIS VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INLAND...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING ISSUED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF LATER MODELS INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 17:36:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 12:36:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503141736.j2EHaRmJ006695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141734 SWODY2 SPC AC 141733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 30 S LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 10 N SVC ONM 4CR LBB 50 SSE CDS ADM PGO MKL CSV 10 W TYS 10 WSW GSP 20 SE CRE ...CONT... 15 NNW PBI 45 ENE FMY 25 S SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/ EASTERN U.S. WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. AS POSITIVELY TILTED FEATURE PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW WEST OF BAJA...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST LATTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ATOP AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH... EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT THROUGH BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER INITIALLY COOLING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTENING ON EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE CONVERGENCE BECOMES LOCALLY ENHANCED...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH CONTINUING MODERATE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...GULF STATES... WHILE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. TUESDAY. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU... ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NORTHERN LIMIT TO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VIGOROUS STORMS ROOTED IN/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER...IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY... GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MEXICAN PLATEAU... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...ENHANCED BY EVOLVING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 03/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 06:48:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 01:48:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503150648.j2F6mToY019223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150646 SWODY2 SPC AC 150645 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PNS 15 NNW MAI 10 ENE SSI ...CONT... 10 ENE MLB 25 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 40 S FMY ...CONT... 20 NW DRT 25 WNW SAT 20 SW CLL LFK 25 NW MCB 30 WSW MEI 10 E CBM 15 ENE ANB 15 NE AGS 15 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR BIL 60 SSW COD 55 WSW BPI 45 ENE OWY 35 NNE BNO 50 NNW DLS 15 NNW UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES...MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST...THEY AGREE THAT STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM SRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO FL. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM SRN GA SWWD TO SERN LA TO THE WRN GULF BASIN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE SEWD THIS PERIOD REACHING A CENTRAL FL TO SRN GULF LINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SSEWD TOWARD NRN BC...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS WA/ORE TO THE NRN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE SPREADING FROM THE NW-SE AS MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF AN 80+ KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM WRN WA TO NRN UT. ...EXTREME SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL... WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TO FL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND WAA ALONG A 35-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN AL/GA. ALTHOUGH THIS STRONG LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH THETAE AIR MASS ACROSS FL ON WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THE FL PENINSULA...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS WITH UP TO 50 KT AT 850 MB AND UP TO 70 KT AT 500 MB OVER SRN GA/FL...LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ..PETERS.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 17:36:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 12:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503151736.j2FHaWmB014617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151734 SWODY2 SPC AC 151733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PNS 15 NNW MAI 10 ENE SSI ...CONT... 10 ENE MLB 25 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 40 S FMY ...CONT... 60 WSW COT COT 55 N VCT LCH 25 NW MCB JAN CBM GAD CAE 15 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 W MLS SHR 60 NW RIW 20 WNW IDA S80 35 WSW GEG SEA 35 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL.... AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN U.S. IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/MEXICAN PLATEAU AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. UPPER TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE PHASES WITH AN IMPULSE IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SOUTH...NOW DIGGING TOWARD BAJA...MODELS INDICATE BROADER SCALE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SOUTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ENTIRE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL SUPPORT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE WAVES WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INTENSIFYING FLOW FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS SUPPORTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS PROGGED THROUGH THE DAY AS INITIAL WAVE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS WAVE AND...IF THIS SOLUTION COMES CLOSER THAN NAM TO VERIFYING...HODOGRAPHS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A MORE PRONOUNCED RISK OF TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS. REGARDLESS...40-50 KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF FRONT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SYSTEM...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. ...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... BEFORE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE BROWNSVILLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES... CAPE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ..KERR.. 03/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 06:18:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 01:18:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503160618.j2G6IsGH010269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160617 SWODY2 SPC AC 160616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 15 SSE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD TO THE WEST OF NRN BAJA...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET OVER NRN FL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW AN ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD ACROSS FL. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES... RICH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN 60-70 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER S FL...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEAR OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS S FL. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LESS VEERING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND/OR GREATER INSTABILITY...THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE SRN HALF OF FL ON THURSDAY. ..PETERS.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 17:31:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 12:31:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503161731.j2GHVFx2019148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161729 SWODY2 SPC AC 161728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HLC 10 NW GLD 10 SE FCL RWL COD SHR 10 SW REJ PIR MHE FSD SUX LNK HLC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED OR MORE ZONAL REGIME THURSDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SHORT WAVES...COMPRISING CURRENT AMPLIFIED LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/MEXICAN PLATEAU ...ACCELERATE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVES...MORE OR LESS IN PHASE...WILL MAINTAIN POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN SYSTEM LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND LIKELY WILL ONLY REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPEAR LIKELY TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STREAM LIKELY WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF MELBOURNE THROUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FORT MYERS AREAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG/NORTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY..BUT MOST VIGOROUS STORMS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS. WARMER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OPEN WATERS.... PARTICULARLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS...SHOULD PROVE MORE FAVORABLE TO OVERCOMING MID/UPPER INHIBITION. EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING OVER INLAND AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MIAMI WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ERODING CAP AND INCREASED FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...VEERED /I.E. SOUTHWESTERLY/ BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND TEND TO MINIMIZE TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN LOWER LEVELS DUE TO HEATING...AND 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. ...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING BY MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD...NEAR/SOUTH OF SHARP FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..KERR.. 03/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 07:11:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 02:11:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503170711.j2H7Bope028912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170707 SWODY2 SPC AC 170706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E OWB 20 ENE MSL 55 NNW MEI 30 W JAN 50 NNW POE 40 NNW LFK 35 SW TYR 50 NNW HOT 40 NW COU 30 SSW DSM 15 ENE FOD 35 S LNR 35 E RFD 35 ENE LAF 40 E OWB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN STATES BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A LARGE PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CA COAST TO NRN BAJA REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. A BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH SEVERAL LEADING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME INTO TX. MEANWHILE...A MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FL. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS IA TO SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z SATURDAY... WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. ...MS VALLEY... STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FROM IA TO AR AND THEN EWD TOWARD IND TO NWRN AL ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF NWD TO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. GIVEN NWLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN GULF AT THE START OF DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT BEST. SWLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP THE MODEST RETURN FLOW EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WAA ALONG THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ...CA COAST... INCREASING ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 17:41:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 12:41:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503171741.j2HHf1oh024899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171732 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW MKT 40 SE EAU 35 WSW OSH CGX DNV MVN DYR UOX JAN HEZ ESF SHV TXK FSM UMN MKC STJ 15 NE OMA SPW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH/BREAKS DOWN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY... BEFORE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE LIMITED. ...PLAINS/MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES APPEARS RATHER VIGOROUS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID- LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -30C...WHICH WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES FRIDAY. STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SOUTHWARD ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX. THUS...DESPITE RATHER LOW MOISTURE LEVELS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS WHERE STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH UPDRAFT STRENGTH MINIMIZED BY VERY WEAK CAPE...HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...BUT RISK FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. FARTHER SOUTH...CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS... WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ..KERR.. 03/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 06:40:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 01:40:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503180640.j2I6ecXh023024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180638 SWODY2 SPC AC 180637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CRP 15 SSW NIR 40 NNW NIR 40 SE AUS 25 NW LFK 45 ESE SHV 30 N HEZ 25 ENE MCB 25 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 65 E 63S 30 SSW 3DU 30 E PIH 40 NE U24 SGU 45 ENE NID 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CRE 15 NE SOP 50 E LYH 20 NNW NHK 35 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW COT 40 SW JCT 15 ESE BWD 20 N PRX 40 NW LIT 30 NNE MEM 10 W MSL 30 S BHM 30 SSW CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...LA..MS... ...EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BROADEN AND AMPLIFY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY AND THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS TX AND LA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 55-65 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG TX AND LA COASTAL PLAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...MID-ATLANTIC/NC... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AS A GULF STREAM SFC LOW ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS NC AND VA. THE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ...WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON DAY 2 SPREADING LIFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS TEMPS WARM BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 17:33:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 12:33:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503181733.j2IHXfmA008124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181731 SWODY2 SPC AC 181730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP NIR 50 ESE SAT CLL 25 N LFK 45 ESE SHV 30 N HEZ 25 ENE MCB 25 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM YKM BNO 10 N WMC TPH NID BFL 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRE SOP RDU 50 W ECG 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE LRD HDO 45 SE BWD DAL PBF MEM MKL 40 WNW MSL TCL SEM 30 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MMO 25 NE BEH TOL ZZV HTS 10 SSE LEX SDF MTO BMI MMO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST.... UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. IN GENERAL...THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH MULTIPLE DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. MODELS SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR IN RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO LATTER FEATURE...EXIT REGION OF STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER PACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO CALIFORNIA...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION INTO TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH/EAST...NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. JUST AHEAD...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF... THIS FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN SEASONAL WARMING OF LOWER LEVELS...AND CONTINUING COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALL AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN SLOWER TO RECOVER ...AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... STRONGER WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND FORCING FOR FURTHER CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TEXAS...IS UNCERTAIN. SLOW MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD BE REALIZED BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO/ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRENDS MAY BE FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME FOCUSED OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ..KERR.. 03/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 07:12:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 02:12:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503190712.j2J7C2v2001816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190704 SWODY2 SPC AC 190703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE TYR 15 ENE DAL 40 ESE FSI 20 W END 35 N P28 15 NNW SLN 10 NNE MHK 20 SSE TOP 10 E JLN 25 NW HOT 25 SE TXK 20 NE TYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE OTH 40 W SVE 40 W BIH 40 SE FAT 35 E PRB 25 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 20 ENE 3DU 40 SSW WEY 35 SW LND 15 E CAG 40 SE GUC 20 ENE 4SL 35 ENE GNT 25 SW GUP 20 WNW INW 55 SSW SGU 40 NE U31 40 E BNO 35 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 40 NW NIR 40 WNW SEP 35 N CSM 20 NNE DDC 45 SSE GLD 35 SSE IML 25 SW LBF 35 E ANW 20 WSW YKN 15 NNE SUX 45 SSE P35 45 S UNO 35 WSW UOX 40 E 0A8 10 S MCN 50 W SAV 20 NNE SSI ...CONT... 20 ESE JAX 35 E GNV 45 SSW GNV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS..OK..NRN TX... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER-TROUGH. THIS WILL TRANSPORT 50+ F SFC DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING...ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK E-NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING...SFC-BASED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY CNTRL KS AND NRN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK AND KS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WILL FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AFTER DARK AND SPREAD SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE OZARKS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN EAST TX FOR 00Z MON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP VERY ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE WRN STATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO SFC HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 17:37:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 12:37:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503191737.j2JHbbCC008751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191735 SWODY2 SPC AC 191734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 55 WSW RBL 35 NNE RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 20 W ALI 40 W AUS 35 WSW SPS 45 SW GAG 55 N CAO 20 ENE ALS 50 SW CEZ 60 NNE IGM 40 WSW DRA 40 W TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 15 S LWS 45 NW 3TH 30 SSW FCA 15 SSE DLN 25 ENE WRL 25 WNW LBF 30 NE HLC 50 SSW JLN 35 NW TXK 55 WNW JAN 30 N MGM 35 WSW MCN 35 NNE MGR AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE SRN STREAM -- OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS -- THIS PERIOD. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE EXITING TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. / GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS TX / THE GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTING LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN / SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD MODULATE STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THEREFORE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST THREATS MAY EXIST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST -- WHERE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A ISOLATED WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO...AND ACROSS E TX WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THUS MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. ...SRN KS / OK / N CENTRAL AND NERN TX... RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SRN KS / OK THIS PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DESPITE FAVORABLY-STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS / WRN OK / WRN N TX...AND ISOLATED / RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY HAIL THREAT WITH MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 07:12:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 02:12:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503200711.j2K7BmFW015719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200706 SWODY2 SPC AC 200704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW POE 30 SW TYR 35 ESE DAL 10 NE DUA 20 WNW MLC MKO 10 SSW FYV 50 SE HRO 10 WSW MEM 15 W TUP 20 WSW CBM 20 NNW MEI 30 SE JAN 10 E HEZ 15 NNE ESF 50 NNW POE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 25 S CLL 15 NNW ACT 25 NW OKC 25 S P28 40 N P28 20 S SLN 40 SSE OJC 45 SSE VIH 35 SSW PAH 30 NNE HSV 40 E ANB 40 SE CSG 25 N TLH 15 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT 15 W AUS 45 SW SPS 10 NNW LBL 25 NE LIC 30 SW SNY 35 SSW MHN 10 NNE OMA 25 NW SPI 50 NNE SDF 35 SE PSK 45 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 55 NNW RDM 35 SSE EUG 25 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 50 ESE RBL 50 S TVL 10 SSW FAT 15 WNW SMX. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE OFF MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD THE SYSTEM...AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY MIDDAY...CLEARING SKIES WEST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NERN TX AND ERN OK. CELLS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION OVER NE TX AND SE OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FARTHER NNWWD...ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS A SQUALL-LINE GRADUALLY ORGANIZES. AS THE SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TOWARD THE SRN END OF THE LINE...AND WITH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD REACHING WRN MS LATE IN THE PERIOD, ...GA AND NRN FL... A MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-TROUGH QUICKLY ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE SEVERE THREAT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 07:19:54 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 02:19:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503200719.j2K7JYtL017429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200717 SWODY2 SPC AC 200716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW POE 30 SW TYR 35 ESE DAL 10 NE DUA 20 WNW MLC MKO 10 SSW FYV 50 SE HRO 10 WSW MEM 15 W TUP 20 WSW CBM 20 NNW MEI 30 SE JAN 10 E HEZ 15 NNE ESF 50 NNW POE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 25 S CLL 15 NNW ACT 25 NW OKC 25 S P28 40 N P28 20 S SLN 40 SSE OJC 45 SSE VIH 35 SSW PAH 30 NNE HSV 40 E ANB 40 SE CSG 25 N TLH 15 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT 15 W AUS 45 SW SPS 10 NNW LBL 25 NE LIC 30 SW SNY 35 SSW MHN 10 NNE OMA 25 NW SPI 50 NNE SDF 35 SE PSK 45 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 55 NNW RDM 35 SSE EUG 25 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 50 ESE RBL 50 S TVL 10 SSW FAT 15 WNW SMX. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOSE OFF MONDAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD THE SYSTEM...AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY MIDDAY... CLEARING SKIES WEST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NERN TX AND ERN OK. CELLS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION OVER NE TX AND SE OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FARTHER NNWWD...ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS A SQUALL-LINE GRADUALLY ORGANIZES. AS THE SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TOWARD THE SRN END OF THE LINE...AND WITH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD REACHING WRN MS LATE IN THE PERIOD, ...GA AND NRN FL... A MID-LEVEL JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER-TROUGH QUICKLY ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATE SEVERE THREAT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 17:47:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 12:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503201746.j2KHkkn9009654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201744 SWODY2 SPC AC 201743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW HOU 35 S CLL 35 SE ACT 20 ESE DUA MLC 40 SE FYV 55 WSW ARG 25 SW JBR 40 W UOX 20 SW GWO 30 NE ESF 40 SW POE 15 NNW HOU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 35 SSW AUS ACT 50 N FTW 35 SW OKC 10 SSE GAG 20 SE DDC 35 SSE RSL 35 NNE UNO 10 NNW DYR 25 NE TUP 35 N MGM 25 NE ABY 25 N TLH 25 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 35 WNW NIR 45 ENE JCT 20 N SEP 45 SSE SPS 55 N ABI 50 SE CVS 20 SSW LAA 25 WNW HLC 15 ESE SZL 45 WSW HOP 30 S ATL 10 SW AGS 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX / SERN OK INTO AR / LA / WRN MS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES ACROSS OK / KS WITHIN DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...INCLUDING 70-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET S OF THE RED RIVER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY INVOF THE OK / TX PNHDLS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE DRYLINE ALSO SURGES EWD ACROSS WRN OK / WRN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WARM / MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST E OF DRYLINE / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CNTRL GULF COAST... ACTIVE / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / WRN PORTIONS OF DAY 2 OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES -- MAY INFLUENCE AREAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK / ERN TX / LA. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AN INCREASE IN ONGOING STORMS IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION -- BOTH AHEAD OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS WITHIN GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...ALL WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID- / UPPER-LEVEL JET. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE VEERING / SHEAR WILL EXIST. THUS...WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY -- FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED CELLS...SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. INITIAL THREAT FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD INTO AR / LA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS INTO SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 18:09:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 13:09:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503201808.j2KI8dq4020227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201806 SWODY2 SPC AC 201805 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW HOU 35 S CLL 35 SE ACT 20 ESE DUA MLC 40 SE FYV 55 WSW ARG 25 SW JBR 40 W UOX 20 SW GWO 30 NE ESF 40 SW POE 15 NNW HOU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 35 SSW AUS ACT 50 N FTW 35 SW OKC 10 SSE GAG 20 SE DDC 35 SSE RSL 35 NNE UNO 10 NNW DYR 25 NE TUP 35 N MGM 25 NE ABY 25 N TLH 25 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 35 WNW NIR 45 ENE JCT 20 N SEP 45 SSE SPS 55 N ABI 50 SE CVS 20 SSW LAA 25 WNW HLC 15 ESE SZL 45 WSW HOP 30 S ATL 10 SW AGS 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX / SERN OK INTO AR / LA / WRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM E TX/OK/SRN KS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST.... CORRECTED FOR SLGT RISK POINTS LISTING ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES ACROSS OK / KS WITHIN DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...INCLUDING 70-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET S OF THE RED RIVER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY INVOF THE OK / TX PNHDLS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE DRYLINE ALSO SURGES EWD ACROSS WRN OK / WRN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WARM / MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST E OF DRYLINE / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN TX / OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CNTRL GULF COAST... ACTIVE / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / WRN PORTIONS OF DAY 2 OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES -- MAY INFLUENCE AREAL SEVERE THREAT...IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK / ERN TX / LA. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AN INCREASE IN ONGOING STORMS IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION -- BOTH AHEAD OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS WITHIN GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...ALL WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID- / UPPER-LEVEL JET. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE VEERING / SHEAR WILL EXIST. THUS...WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY -- FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED CELLS...SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. INITIAL THREAT FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD INTO AR / LA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS INTO SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 05:35:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 00:35:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503210534.j2L5YofZ007071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210532 SWODY2 SPC AC 210531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MEI 30 NNW GWO 30 WSW MEM DYR 50 SSW CKV 35 NNW HSV 25 W RMG 30 ESE RMG 20 NNE AHN 35 SSE AND 20 SE AGS 45 NW AYS 35 NNW TLH 25 NE CEW 65 SW SEM 30 WNW MEI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW HUM ESF LIT UNO 60 ESE VIH SLO 30 ESE BMG JKL 25 WSW TRI 25 WNW AVL 20 NNW GSP CLT 25 NNW RDU 25 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 NNW DAB 10 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 45 SE SHV 25 WSW HOT MKO 25 NE PNC EMP TOP UIN LAF 35 SSW FDY PKB 35 NNW LYH NHK 30 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL LMT 65 NNW 4LW BNO 45 WNW OWY BAM 50 NNW TPH BIH MER 50 NW SAC 50 NW RBL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF TN...MS...AL...AND GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...INTO THE CAROLINAS... POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...GULF COAST STATES... LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS TN/MS/AL DURING THE DAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S AND POCKETS OF SBCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE STORMS WILL SWEEP INTO GA/SC DURING THE EVENING...AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND. ...MID/LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL OK BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO DURING THE DAY. LARGE SHIELD OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THIS REGION...ALLOWING STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THIS MAY AID IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHERN MS. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN REGION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND STRONG UVVS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..HART.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 17:39:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 12:39:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503211739.j2LHd33g011759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211736 SWODY2 SPC AC 211735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PFN 30 N PNS 25 NE LUL 20 SSW GWO 65 ENE PBF 20 SSW JBR 30 NW DYR 55 WSW HOP 50 NE MSL 35 WNW RMG 35 E ATL 35 WSW AGS 55 S AGS 40 NE AYS 30 SSW AYS 35 SSW VLD 25 ENE PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LCH 50 NNW ESF 25 ESE HOT 35 SSW HRO 35 ENE SGF 45 SSW STL 20 NNW EVV 35 S LEX 35 NNW HSS 25 WNW AVL SPA 45 SSW GSO 20 ENE RDU 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... DAB 10 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL LMT 65 NNW 4LW BNO 45 WNW OWY BAM 50 NNW TPH BIH MER 50 NW SAC 50 NW RBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 25 SSE SHV 15 SSE PGO MKO 15 NNE BVO 35 ESE EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40 NNW DAY PKB 35 W SHD 35 ESE CHO 10 SSE NHK 30 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS...TN...SRN OH VALLEYS INTO THE SERN U.S. AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE E INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO AR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN AR SWD THROUGH ERN LA BY MID AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN TN...CNTRL AL...GA AND SC DURING THE DAY. ...SRN AR...MS...AL...GA INTO PARTS OF SC AND NC... MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF AR...LA...AND MS EARLY TUESDAY. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN AR INTO LA AND MS WHERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SURFACE BASED. INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR A MINIMUM DUE TO TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES. WARM...MOIST MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS AND POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING S OF MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/SRN AL INTO GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. ...CNTRL/NERN AR THROUGH WRN TN... TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MCS. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 07:03:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 02:03:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503220702.j2M72crr021692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220700 SWODY2 SPC AC 220659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 25 SSW FLO 25 N AGS 10 N AND 30 E HSS 15 SW PSK 35 NNW RIC 25 SSE NHK WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PNS 30 SW MGM 15 NE 0A8 25 E TUP 30 WSW PAH 20 SW MTO 45 W FWA 10 WSW CLE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AST 15 E LWS 20 SW 3HT 40 W 4BQ 25 NE BFF 45 ENE LIC 45 N CAO 40 SSE LVS 85 ESE SOW 30 NNW PHX 40 E DAG 45 S BIH 50 SSW SVE 45 NNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN VA...NC AND NRN SC... ...MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN CAROLINAS... A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD HELP WRAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO ERN VA AND NE NC DURING THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING BEHIND THE LINE COULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE SFC LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF MINI-SUPERCELLS DEVELOP IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST AND FORCED ASCENT SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. ...FLORIDA... A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN GA EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS NRN FL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE MORNING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE LINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NCNTRL FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES ENEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 17:28:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 12:28:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503221727.j2MHRmdJ008619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221723 SWODY2 SPC AC 221722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE VRB 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 NNW CAE 30 NNE HKY PSK 35 NNE ROA 30 ESE CHO 25 WSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AST 45 WNW PDT 60 S MSO 45 SSE BIL 60 SSE 81V 20 E SNY 20 ENE LAA 40 WSW CAO 25 NW ABQ 40 NNE INW 55 NNE LAS 45 S NFL 35 WSW SVE 10 WNW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PFN 40 E TOI 15 NE ANB 30 ESE BNA SDF 25 N LUK 15 N ZZV 20 WNW AOO 15 N NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF SRN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MID-DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE NC COAST AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS S OF THE WARM FRONT. A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING. DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET SHOULD SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN JET EXIT REGION AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE S OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM NC INTO SRN VA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE JET SPREADS EWD. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT INTO SC AND GA MAY BE LIMITED...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN DRY SLOT AND TENDENCY FOR THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE. WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SERN GA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL FL... A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SERN GA THROUGH NRN FL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE LINE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN FAIRLY STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWY FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN WARM SECTOR. THE VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LINE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 03/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 06:43:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 01:43:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503230643.j2N6h9Up021104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230641 SWODY2 SPC AC 230639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MKO 50 E GAG 45 NE DDC 35 WNW CNK 50 ESE OMA 30 N OTM 10 E DBQ 20 S MKE TOL UNI 10 W JKL BNA 55 WSW ARG 20 S MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNW MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ONP 60 WNW 27U 25 WNW WRL 20 ESE CPR 15 SSW FCL ALS 35 WSW 4SL 20 SSE FLG 50 NNE TRM 25 NNE OXR 10 WNW SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN KS/NCNTRL MO/WCNTRL IL... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN OZARKS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY REACHING THE 40S F BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH STORM INITIATION POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 03Z IN NRN MO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY STARTING ABOVE 750 MB WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 17:36:54 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 12:36:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503231736.j2NHaLhQ023192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231734 SWODY2 SPC AC 231733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 20 NNW MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ONP YKM 27U JAC 40 S LND 15 WNW FCL AKO IML LNK DSM DBQ SBN DAY LEX MSL TUP GLH ELD TXK PGO JLN EMP 45 N DDC 35 ESE LIC COS 10 ESE ALS FMN SGU DRA SAC ACV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THIS REGIME IS COMPRISED OF INTERACTING SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES EARLY THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...DIGS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z FRIDAY...FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL STALL/WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINING WEAK ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INTERSECTION OF REMNANT FRONT/SEA BREEZE...ALONG COASTAL AREAS...OR PERHAPS JUST INLAND...ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF PALM BEACH...MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST AREAS. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOISTEN ENVIRONMENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI/ILLINOIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...BUT INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR STORMS ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLTEX. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ..KERR.. 03/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 06:16:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 01:16:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503240616.j2O6GBXl003444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240614 SWODY2 SPC AC 240612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ABQ 55 NNE SAD 30 W PHX 25 NNW EED 45 NNE DRA 30 NW ELY 55 NE ENV 30 SW BPI 40 WNW RWL LAR 30 ESE DEN 30 SSE PUB 40 S RTN 25 SSW ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS 25 SW VCT 45 S SAT 30 NNW HDO 20 N SJT 60 S CDS 15 SSW LTS 15 NE ADM 20 ENE FSM UNO 20 WNW HUF 25 NNE DAY 15 SSE HLG 15 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 NW CEW 35 SSE CSG 10 NNW MCN 40 ESE ATL 10 W ATL 30 SSE BHM 10 ENE MEI 30 SW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NEWD TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER-TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 26/00Z SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OR NE TX BY 06Z. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DUE TO A NEWD MOVEMENT OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z IN NE TX SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/COASTAL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY 00Z. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN VA AND NRN NC COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. ...CNTRL FL... SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN CNTRL FL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILES WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 17:34:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 12:34:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503241734.j2OHYNvT026041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241732 SWODY2 SPC AC 241731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT 15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50 SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO AT 26/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. ...FL/GA... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY 42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...TN VALLEY... ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...TX... LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 17:43:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 12:43:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503241743.j2OHh6Tr002737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241740 SWODY2 SPC AC 241739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT 15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50 SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA... CORRECTED FOR DATE REFERENCE ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO AT 25/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. ...FL/GA... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY 42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...TN VALLEY... ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...TX... LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 17:54:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 12:54:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503241754.j2OHsFaM014807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241752 SWODY2 SPC AC 241751 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 ENE MGR 55 N AYS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 N VRB 25 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VCT 15 NE SAT 15 NW JCT 45 N HOB 55 SSW GUP 25 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY 45 NNW ENV 50 SSW JAC 20 ENE RWL 40 NNW LIC 35 SW GCK 25 W END 20 NNE JLN 40 ENE VIH 15 N EVV 45 SE LUK 20 NW SHD 55 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB 45 ESE MEI 20 NNW MEI 15 WNW JAN 20 N HEZ 15 SW ESF 30 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA... CORRECTED FOR DATE REFERENCE ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... LOW PRESSSURE INITIALLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO AT 25/12Z WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL TX. ...FL/GA... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN FL/ERN GULF BASIN INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MIA INTO THE CNTRL GULF NEAR BUOY 42001. INCREASING SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN ALONG NOSE OF THIS RETURNING MOISTURE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDEPSREAD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FROM FL NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA WHERE AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...TN VALLEY... ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT 25/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY /AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME/ AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...TX... LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING N OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGIME AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT ELEVATED ISNTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 03/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 06:44:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 01:44:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503250644.j2P6iA4C014742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250642 SWODY2 SPC AC 250641 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 50 S LFK 45 WNW LFK 25 NNE TYR 15 ENE TXK 40 NNE GLH 25 NE CBM 40 NW AUO 40 WNW ABY 30 E MAI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GLS 15 S CLL 20 WNW TPL SEP 45 SW ADM 20 NW PGO 50 N LIT 10 SW DYR 25 W BNA 30 ESE CSV AND 15 ENE AGS 35 SSE SAV ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE PSX 50 N HDO 20 ESE INK 25 SSW ROW 10 NNE 4CR 15 N SAF 50 SSE ALS 35 ENE TAD 20 WSW EHA 45 WSW GAG 45 NE CSM 20 NNE MKO 15 ESE UNO PAH 35 ESE OWB 30 N LOZ 20 SW GSO 20 SSW FAY 20 S CRE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTH ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS AR...PARTS OF TN...NRN MS/AL...GA/FL...AND WRN SC... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL... HIGH WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... A POWERFUL EARLY SPRING TROUGH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SCNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW /70-80KT AT 500MB OVER TX BY SATURDAY EVENING/ WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO LA. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND FUEL WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPREADING RAPIDLY EAST IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS NRN FL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...ERN TX INTO AR/LA/MS/AL... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ERN TX AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN STRONG FORCING SPREADING EAST INTO THIS REGION...AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND PRONOUNCED SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY LATE MORNING. STORMS NEAR THE FRONT/LOW WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THIS AIR MASS AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED FROM ERN TX INTO LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...MODEST CAPPING...AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY BECOMING TORNADIC. ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT...AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN/NEAR THE FEED OF ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO FOR A COUPLE OF LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN BROAD WARM SECTOR FCST EWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAMILIES OF SUPERCELLS WITH CYCLIC TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO MS AND PARTS OF AL THROUGH THE EVENING. ...TN VLY TO SOUTHEAST... MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD TSTMS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE TN VLY EWD TO GA/SC. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO NRN AND ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO A FAST MOVING SEVERE SQUALL LINE FROM MS/AL EAST TO GA/SC. ETA IS ALSO FCSTG AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX DURING THE NIGHT...FROM THE FL PNHDL NEWD ACROSS GA AND SRN SC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...FAST MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ...WEST TX... COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH HAIL COULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 17:25:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 12:25:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503251724.j2PHOaSI008785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251720 SWODY2 SPC AC 251719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GLS 50 SW LFK 35 S TYR 45 NNW GGG 20 ENE TXK 40 NNE GLH 25 NE CBM 40 NW AUO 40 WNW ABY 30 E MAI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 35 SW CLL 25 W TPL SEP 45 SW ADM 20 NW PGO 50 N LIT 30 SW DYR 30 W BNA 20 SE CSV 20 WNW GSP 15 NE CAE 20 E CRE ...CONT... 15 N PBI 15 S SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 50 N HDO 20 ESE INK 25 SSW ROW 10 NNE 4CR 15 N SAF 50 SSE ALS 35 ENE TAD 20 WSW EHA 45 WSW GAG 45 NE CSM 20 NNE MKO 15 ESE UNO PAH 35 ESE OWB 30 N LOZ 45 ENE TRI RDU 30 W HSE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE SERN STATES... WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ERN TX ACROSS LA...MS...AL AND POSSIBLY INTO GA AND FL. ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE S-CNTRL STATES. 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE FROM CNTRL/SRN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...WHILE 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO ERN TX DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E-CNTRL TX TO OFF THE SC COAST BY 27/12Z. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING NEWD INTO NRN MS BY SUNDAY MORNING ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SERN CONUS... TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 26/12Z OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TX/ARKLATEX WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD ACROSS REGION. APPEARS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY /LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH SLY/SWLY LLJ/ WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THIS LEAD SYSTEM...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS AL/MS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND GA/SC SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LA/MS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF EVOLVING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN TX AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FACTOR INITIALLY LIMITING SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT GREATER THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL. ..MEAD.. 03/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 06:57:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 01:57:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503260657.j2Q6v5wp022430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260654 SWODY2 SPC AC 260653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AQQ 45 NE DHN 15 E LGC 35 E ANB 10 E GAD 25 SSW HSV 10 SW MSL 20 WNW MSL 50 NNW MSL 45 WSW BNA 30 S BWG 55 E BWG 40 SW LOZ TYS 60 SSE TYS 25 N AND SPA 30 SSE CLT 20 NNE FLO 10 S CRE ...CONT... 20 ENE JAX 15 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30 S FMY ...CONT... 30 S CEW 30 W DHN 25 NE TOI 35 S ANB 20 E BHM 45 SSW MSL 10 SE TUP 30 NNE UOX 25 ENE DYR 45 NNW HOP 10 ESE OWB 30 W LEX 30 E LEX 30 SSW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 20 NW TRI 15 WNW HSS AVL 20 ENE HKY 30 NW RWI 40 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 60 NNW CEW 15 S 0A8 20 SW TCL 30 ESE GWO 55 E MLU 35 SSW ELD 40 SSE HOT 35 ENE JBR 25 WNW EVV 50 E BMG 40 W UNI 30 N SHD 15 N NHK 35 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE...EXTREME SRN KY...MUCH OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM EXTREME NERN MS TO NC AND SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF FL... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH NOW IN FORMATIVE STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE MS VLY...AND THEN ACROSS THE TN VLY THROUGH SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 90-120M PER 12 HOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH FROM TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS BELT OF HIGH SPEED MID LEVEL FLOW OF 90-100KT SPREADS ACROSS TN/GA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD. PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE WILL START OUT SUNDAY OVER MS AND THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE TN VLY DURING THE DAY WHILE DEEPENING. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NWD ALONG THE WRN PLATEAU OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. MEANWHILE...CAROLINAS WEDGE/PIEDMONT FRONT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ENEWD TO THE NC/SC BORDER AND THEN NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL NC. AS PRIMARY CYCLONE BEGINS TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE FRONTAL WAVES WILL LIKELY RIPPLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PIEDMONT FRONT FROM NRN GA TO SC/NC. COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST FROM AL AND MOVE ACROSS GA/NRN FL...AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ...KY/TN VLY/NRN GA... SURFACE LOW AND MOIST WARM SECTOR ARE FCST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE MORNING BENEATH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM INTENSE BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW. BASED ON LATEST NAM GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS...THE AREA FROM HUNTSVILLE/AL TO NASHVILLE/TN MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM/WEDGE FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO SC AS INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LONG-LIVED CELLS TRACKING ENEWD ALONG...AS OPPOSED TO ACROSS...THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SC...AND PERHAPS INTO NC THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ...SRN GA/NRN FL/CAROLINAS... SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR ACROSS THESE AREAS DESTABILIZES BENEATH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA IS INITIALLY LIMITED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS CAN INITIATE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND MOVE INTO SC FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLE REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR AND PERHAPS EVOLVE INTO A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS NRN FL AND SC LATE BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ..CARBIN.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 17:39:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 12:39:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503261738.j2QHcoHf010598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261734 SWODY2 SPC AC 261733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 30 W TOI 25 SW BHM 40 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 15 NW HOP 30 ENE BWG 35 WSW LOZ 20 N TYS 30 SE TYS 20 N GSP 15 SSW CLT 30 N FLO 10 SSW ILM ...CONT... 20 ENE JAX 15 SSW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MOB 20 N MOB 30 NNE MEI 20 NNE MEM 35 NNE DYR 35 NE PAH 25 E EVV 10 S LUK 35 NNW HTS 30 SSW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 30 SSW PSK 60 SW RIC 20 NE ORF ...CONT... MLB 30 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW FCA 55 E S80 20 ENE BOI 55 SSE BNO 50 S 4LW 15 NNE TVL 15 ENE MER 35 SE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW BVE 35 NNE MCB 50 WNW JAN 40 NE MLU 30 WNW ELD 20 N PGO 25 S UMN 15 S MTO 20 NE IND 35 WNW CMH 25 E LBE 30 E CXY 25 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN...AL...GA...SC AND FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS...CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN...AL...GA...SC AND FL. ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED 95-105 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AT 27/12Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO THE SERN CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER MS DELTA SUNDAY MORNING...PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO ERN KY BY 27/12Z. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WHILE CAROLINAS WEDGE/PIEDMONT FRONT RETREATS NWD MUCH MORE SLOWLY. FINALLY...COLD FRONT FROM SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH ERN MS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER ERN KY SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL BY MONDAY MORNING. ...TN VALLEY/AL EWD ACROSS GA/SC AND NRN FL... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD OVERALL SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...WARRANTING WWD SHIFT IN MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION REGIME FROM PORTIONS OF TN/AL EWD INTO GA AND POSSIBLY SC. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AND INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE GULF...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT SPREADING N OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR /I.E. N OF PIEDMONT FRONT/ OWING TO THE STRONG WARM/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER. MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CLOSER TO SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NRN/CNTRL AL. HERE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GA ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES...WILL ALSO DEVELOP S OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 03/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 06:34:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 01:34:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503270634.j2R6YBxa027661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270632 SWODY2 SPC AC 270631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 35 E RWI 40 ENE DAN 15 ENE LYH 10 NNE CHO 15 NNW DCA 20 SSW ILG 15 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W FMY 10 N MLB ...CONT... 45 ENE CHS 20 WNW FLO 40 ESE SPA 55 E CHA 35 WSW CSV 55 E BWG 30 SSW UNI 15 NE LBE 30 W AVP 20 NNE POU 20 NW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF 20 SSW CYS 15 W ASE 30 SSE 4HV 40 SW BCE 50 ENE LAS 45 WSW LAS 45 N NID 65 NE MER 30 SW NFL 45 N LOL 45 NW WMC 85 SE BNO 35 WNW BOI 80 WSW 27U 25 SSE LVM 25 WNW 4BQ 10 NNW Y22 60 SSW JMS 25 SSW AXN 25 NNW RWF 10 ENE FSD 30 SSE MHE 10 E VTN 55 NW MHN 10 SE BFF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM NERN NC TO SRN NJ... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT EARLY SPRING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN NEWD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE A STRONG AND EXTENSIVE UPPER WAVE WILL DEVELOP INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IN THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYSTEM DRIVING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS THIS PERIOD AS INTENSE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. WRN TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WRN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ...NERN NC TO DELMARVA AND SRN NJ... AS DEEPENING/REDEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS VA TO DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SWATH OF LOW 60S SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FCST TO SPREAD NWD FROM ERN NC TO CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE EARLIER TRENDS INDICATING AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS BENEATH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET. TIGHT ISOTACH GRADIENT ACROSS THE NOSE OF THE JET CORE...AND APPROACH OF WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION... AND POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...AND NEAR THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE WIND DAMAGE... HAIL...AND TORNADO THREATS WILL EXIST OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREA. OTHER CLUSTERS OF LESS ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...MAY OCCUR WITHIN/BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE REGION DURING PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. ..CARBIN.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 16:33:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 11:33:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503271632.j2RGWLim025133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271621 SWODY2 SPC AC 271620 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 30 S RDU 10 NE DAN 15 ENE LYH 10 NNE CHO 15 NNW DCA 20 SSW ILG 15 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 45 ENE CHS 20 WNW FLO 40 ESE SPA 55 E CHA 35 WSW CSV 55 E BWG 30 SSW UNI 15 NE LBE 30 W AVP 35 WSW PSF 20 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BFF 20 SSW CYS 15 W ASE 30 SSE 4HV 40 SW BCE 50 ENE LAS 45 WSW LAS 45 N NID 65 NE MER 25 WSW RNO 20 NE SVE 20 E 4LW 35 S BNO 10 WSW BKE 20 SSE S80 25 SSE LVM 25 WNW 4BQ 10 NNW Y22 60 SSW JMS 25 SSW AXN 25 NNW RWF 10 ENE FSD 30 SSE MHE 10 E VTN 55 NW MHN 10 SE BFF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN NC NWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AT 28/12Z WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS REBOUNDING FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE IN THE W...NEXT TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE W COAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE OVER ERN KY MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER CNTRL APPALACHIAN PIEDMONT...PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 29/12Z. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD ALLOW PIEDMONT FRONT TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AS A WARM FRONT WHILE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY. IN THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...FOCUSING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME NON-SEVERE TSTMS. ...ERN NC NWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS... STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 28/12Z ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NC/VA WITHIN ZONE OF INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS. GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THESE WIND MAXIMA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/DE BAYS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FROM ERN WV/WRN VA EWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY AS POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD CORE SHIFT EWD ACROSS AREA. ..MEAD.. 03/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 05:54:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 00:54:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503280554.j2S5s3FT030640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280551 SWODY2 SPC AC 280550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 60 WNW GTF 30 WSW BZN 45 NE JAC 50 SE RIW 30 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 50 ESE LIC 50 SE GLD 35 ENE HLC 20 SSE HSI 15 S OLU 20 NE OFK 15 NE YKN 30 SSW HON 55 SE MBG 40 NE MBG 40 NNW JMS 30 E DVL 35 NNW TVF 25 SSW INL 30 N DLH 40 S IWD 20 NNE AUW 40 W OSH 30 SE LNR 30 WSW MLI 50 NNE COU 50 S OJC 20 WSW PNC 35 SSW GAG 25 SSE DHT 30 NNW LVS 15 SW DRO 10 WSW 4BL 35 NNW BCE 20 W ELY 25 SE BAM 40 NE BNO 25 NE EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST...THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S. WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE FIRST IMPULSE TO PRODUCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER CA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN LIFT ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND LITTLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FCST TO STREAM EWD/SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MAINTAIN LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. A BELT OF FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS...ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND THEN NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DEFINE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIE BENEATH THE SRN EDGE OF THIS FASTER FLOW... ORIGINATING NEAR A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY AND TRAILING SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THEN WWD/NWWD TO THE FRONT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY... STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ACT ON A WARM/DRY AIR MASS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN CO ACROSS KS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT PREFRONTAL MIXING/HEATING...AND THEN FRONTAL/POSTFRONTAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY THEN SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR RETURNING NWD ON STRENGTHENING LLJ. MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY...COUPLED WITH STRONG ASCENT...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF TRENDS SUGGEST GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED...A SMALL SEVERE AREA/HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...ROCKIES... SPORADIC AND SHORT-LIVED WEAK TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES GIVEN LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND MOST LIKELY DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND HEATING COMBINE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 17:25:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 12:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503281724.j2SHOPrw000904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281721 SWODY2 SPC AC 281720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB HLN LND RWL LAR CYS SNY LBF BBW BUB BKX AXN BRD 50 SE DLH AUW LNR DBQ IRK OJC ICT P28 LBL EHA RTN FMN U17 MLF ELY BAM PDT 55 NNE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ...FEATURING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE -- INDICATED BOTH IN 12Z RAOB ANALYSES AND LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS -- IS FCST TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...LEAVING SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE FROM ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO HUDSON BAY. UPSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS FROM MT TO TX DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING DAY-2. PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CROSSING PORTIONS MO/IA BY END OF PERIOD...BASED MORE ON 12Z SPECTRAL/ETA AND 9Z SREF GUIDANCE THAN LESS AMPLIFIED NGM. AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING NOW UNDERWAY OVER GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH APCH OF WRN STATES MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BECOME FRONTOGENETIC BY 29/18Z AND MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS BY 30/00Z. JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING EVENING AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MO/IA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD OVER KS/OK AND NWRN/N-CENTAL TX. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK ACROSS PORTIONS KS/NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY. BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...STRENGTH OF COOLING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH 30S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING. HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 350 J/KG EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WITH SUCH LIMITED BUOYANCY...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...AFTER DARK. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FARTHER N ACROSS E-CENTRAL PLAINS AND CORN BELT WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED SHORT TURNAROUND TIME AND LIMITED MODIFICATION OPPORTUNITY. THIS INCLUDES AIR MASS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE CENTRAL/WRN GULF AND PARCELS RESIDING OVER NW GULF WITH 40S F SFC DEW POINTS. THOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN LLJ THAT FAR N...STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SATURATION OF ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED PARCELS IN ELEVATED CONVEYOR -- MAINLY W-NE OF SFC LOW. RESULT MAY BE ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-300 J/KG AND CONTINUATION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION FROM WRN KS/NEB. MODIFIED WRN GULF AIR MASS MAY RESULT IN NARROW CORRIDOR OF 50S TO LOW 60S SFC DEW POINTS ERN TX/OK BY END OF PERIOD...HOWEVER ETA SEEMS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS. COMBINATION OF WEAK MOISTURE...VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIMITING CONVERGENCE...WLY/SWLY ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CINH...SHOULD KEEP WARM SECTOR CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVER SRN PLAINS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 29 07:09:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 02:09:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503290708.j2T78WGr001197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290701 SWODY2 SPC AC 290700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MSN 10 SW MTW 10 NE MBL HTL 25 NNE MBS 20 NNE ARB 15 SSE FWA 20 E LAF 35 NNW DNV 35 SSE MMO 20 SE JVL 35 E MSN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 25 NNW UCA 40 S ROC 25 SSE DUJ 20 SE MGW 35 WSW BKW 70 NNW AHN 35 W MCN 10 WSW DHN 30 NNW MSY 25 W BTR 20 SSE POE 40 NNE POE 45 SSE HOT 25 W MEM 40 WNW DYR 10 WSW PAH MVN 20 ENE ALN 40 N COU 30 NE STJ 50 ENE OMA 30 SSE MKT 70 S DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 40 ESE Y22 50 E CDR 25 N MCK 25 ESE SLN 30 N JLN 45 SSW JLN 45 NE OKC 45 E DHT 20 WNW 4SL 80 S 4BL 25 WNW 4HV 20 SW EVW 35 ESE IDA 25 WSW BZN 25 WSW GTF 50 WNW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM THE ROCKIES TO MIDWEST AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE THROUGH A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THE LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LWR CO RIVER VLY...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM MO/IA TO MI DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID/UPR MS VLY...AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY. THIS EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER WLY JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NWD FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO IL/IND. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SERN WI SWD TO THE IL/IND BORDER AREA. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP CYCLONE TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SFC HEATING AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM (120M 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER) WILL AID TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WOULD SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED FROM NRN IND INTO LWR MI. WHILE PATTERN SUGGESTS LINEAR STORM MODE WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND/OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION ...LWR MS VLY TO TN VLY... STRENGTHENING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE EDGE OF CAPPING INVERSION IS FCST TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AS DEEP LAYER SLOPED ASCENT INTENSIFIES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET. FCST MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW HAIL STORMS. HOWEVER... GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG UPSTREAM CAP...AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMING OF INITIATION WILL CHOOSE TO KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 07:18:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 02:18:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503300717.j2U7H7ec007989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300714 SWODY2 SPC AC 300713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BPT 35 SE CLL 40 ESE ACT 40 E DAL 15 N PRX 35 WSW HOT 60 NNE GLH 25 ESE TUP 15 SW GAD 35 NNE MCN 55 SW AGS 50 W SAV 30 SW AYS 35 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DAB 15 SE SRQ ...CONT... 10 E PSX 30 NW VCT 15 ENE SEP 60 NNE ABI 10 NNW PVW 30 ENE DHT 20 SE LAA 50 WNW GLD 20 SE AIA 15 NE PHP 40 WNW HON 30 W BKX 30 NE SUX 10 SSE OMA 15 NNW TOP 15 ENE CNU 10 NE JLN 30 SW UNO 20 S PAH 15 E BWG 25 NW LUK 10 WNW FDY 45 NE GRR 25 SW OSH 65 NNE EAU 90 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 35 ENE CXY 30 SSW ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT LEAST TWO SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL BE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. THE STRONGER IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT SPREADING EAST FROM THE OH VLY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD TO THE LOWER MS VLY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND/UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY AND GULF COAST DURING LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN ANALYSIS OF MODEL TRENDS FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD INDICATES THE NAM HAS DIVERGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS AND NOW INDICATES A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OK/N TX BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS...WHILE SIMILAR TO EARLIER GFS AND NAM RUNS...SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH BUT WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND WEAKER WITH RESULTANT SFC DEVELOPMENT OVER LA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN FCST STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FCSTS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OUTLOOK. ...ERN TX/LA EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/GULF COAST AND SOUTH... THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND TN VLY DURING THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WWD TO THE MS VLY GIVEN WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING DURING THE DAY. LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THURSDAY AS FORCING WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. IF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND FASTER THAN LATEST NAM FCST... WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER SFC DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION PER LATEST GFS. IF THE UPPER WAVE IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FARTHER SOUTH...PER LATEST NAM...MORE LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. A COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE MAXIMIZED FROM PARTS OF ERN TX/WRN LA TO LA/MS FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AS DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF...FOR VIGOROUS TSTM UPDRAFTS. STORMS MAY BE UNDERCUT OR EVEN FORM ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH...GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND LAPSE RATES....WOULD FAVOR PRIMARILY HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IF SFC LOW IS DEEPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR STRONGER...THERE COULD BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE WRN GULF IN ITS WAKE. ..CARBIN.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:36:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:36:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503301735.j2UHZwla020759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301730 SWODY2 SPC AC 301729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BPT HOU 50 SSW CLL 35 SE TPL 35 NNW PRX HOT MEM MKL 20 S BWG 45 NNW CSV CSV RMG MAI AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 45 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 S PSX NIR 45 ENE COT SAT 30 W ACT SEP PVW 40 W EHA GLD LBF VTN Y22 45 ENE DIK 60 SE MOT 45 NE JMS RWF SPW OMA EMP CNU JLN UMN ARG HOP SDF TOL ARB MBL ESC MQT 80 NE CMX ...CONT... MSS JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E TX TO MID TN...AL...AND WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS. MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN ALOFT ARE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA AND OVER 4-CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGION. LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN ONT DURING PERIOD. MEANWHILE TRAILING SYSTEM SHOULD FORM CLOSED 500 MB VORTEX OVER SRN PLAINS...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THAT SUPPORT SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z SPECTRAL/NGM AND 9Z ETA-SREF FCSTS BETTER THAN MORE OPEN-WAVE 12Z/OPERATIONAL ETA. AT SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND SEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS MS/AL EARLY DAY-2. WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS ARKLATEX AREA IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER E TX AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL LOW. EXPECT RESULTANT FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE TO MOVE FROM NWRN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS AND NRN AL THURSDAY NIGHT AS TRAILING FRONT SWEEPS SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. ...SERN CONUS... CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS TN VALLEY SWWD OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/ERN LA... CONTINUING REGIME FROM LATTER PART OF DAY-1 PERIOD. REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. AS LEADING MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND EJECTS AWAY FROM AREA...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/COUPLES DURING EARLY-MID MORNING...LLJ WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E DURING AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH APCH OF SECOND UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH LOCATION/MODE OF PREFRONTAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ATTM...BECAUSE OF LIKELY DEPENDENCE ON LOCATION AND CHARACTER OF MESO-BETA SCALE BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM MORNING ACTIVITY. THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER PROBABILITY CORRIDOR FOR NOW...AND LEAVE OPEN POSSIBILITY OF CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS. MESO-ALPHA TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FROM E TX ACROSS SERN STATES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONTINUAL MODIFICATION/ENRICHMENT OF MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW AIR MASS. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM E TX ACROSS MS DELTA REGION. 60-65 KT EFFECTIVE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO MODES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER PROGS REASONABLY INDICATE RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE ELY COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE. STRONG SFC HEATING IS LIKELY...YIELDING WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS THAT SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAILSTONES TO REACH SFC. AFTERNOON/EVENING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FOCI. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY COALESCE INTO MCS AND MOVE E FROM ARKLATEX AREA TOWARD AL/GA...WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL TOWARD GULF COAST. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ALL NIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 06:49:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 01:49:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503310648.j2V6miJG008201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310646 SWODY2 SPC AC 310645 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 45 E LUL 15 SSW MEI 50 SW CBM 10 SSW TUP 15 WNW MSL 35 WNW CHA 25 SSW HSS 25 NNE CLT 30 ENE FAY 30 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 N MLB 15 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE 7R4 25 ESE LFT 30 SW HEZ 50 W GLH 15 WSW PBF 50 SW ARG 25 NE OWB 30 NE LEX 10 E HTS 15 NE EKN 20 WNW HGR 20 E CXY 25 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 50 WNW 3HT 15 SW BZN 15 SW DLN 30 NW 27U 40 ENE LWS 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE CNTRL U.S. TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM A SERIES OF COMPLEX SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH. THE LEADING IMPULSE...NOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA. THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM THIS LEADING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND EXTEND WSWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN GENERALLY WWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THURSDAY (DAY 1). THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVING TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY EVENING (DAY 2). IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW...A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE NRN GULF COAST ACROSS GA AND SC. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SC AND INTO ERN NC/VA...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NRN FL. ...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO SFC DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR PENETRATION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS MODELS WITH LATEST GFS FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE SFC LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM. NAM MODEL WAS ALSO INDICATING ONLY LIMITED WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE MODEL. DESPITE THESE CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNCERTAINTY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS AT LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE DAY. TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER AREA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS GA. TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER... DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR PERHAPS FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SC/NC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF GREATER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF OR NEAR THESE FEATURES EARLIER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM AL TO THE FL PNHDL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO NRN FL INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL FL BY EARLY SATURDAY. ..CARBIN.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 17:25:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 12:25:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200503311724.j2VHOXph006908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311718 SWODY2 SPC AC 311717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE 7R4 15 SSE HEZ 35 NW JAN 10 NNE UOX 35 SW BNA 25 N CSV 35 SW HSS 25 NNE CLT 30 ENE FAY 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 35 WNW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 50 E SHV 10 ESE LIT 50 SW ARG 25 NE OWB 25 NW LEX 40 WSW UNI 30 E PKB 40 SSE LBE 20 E CXY 25 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 50 SE GTF 10 SW BZN 15 SSW DLN 30 NW 27U 30 N S80 40 NNW ALW 15 SW EAT 30 S SEA 20 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EWD TO SERN STATES AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN KS TO TX PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS IT PHASES WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. MODELS AGREE WITH THE PHASING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PHASING/DEEPENING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...THE SLOWER NAM/NAMKF WERE FOLLOWED FOR PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY EWD TO GA/NRN FL/SC/NC... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS MS INTO LA IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING NRN FL THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 2. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2 AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD WITH THE DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUS...INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SRN GA/NRN FL. STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH A SWLY MID LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 90 KT TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD. LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN MS/WRN AL TO SERN LA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS SQUALL LINE AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE WRN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES ERN GA TO NRN FL BY 12Z SATURDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP NEWD INTO SC AND POTENTIALLY SRN NC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. ..PETERS.. 03/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.