From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 06:27:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 01:27:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506010637.j516bO20018625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010631 SWODY2 SPC AC 010631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 35 WNW AXN 45 WNW RWF 55 ESE SUX 45 SW OJC 35 SE ICT 20 SW FSI 50 SSW LTS 45 ESE PVW 10 N PVW 20 NNE EHA 25 ESE LIC 10 SSW DEN 30 NE LAR 65 WNW CDR 15 NE PHP 30 E MBG 70 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GPT 65 SE MEI 20 SW BHM 30 ESE HSV 25 SSE RMG 20 E CSG 10 E MAI 20 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 15 ESE CNM 50 SSE RTN 25 E ALS 20 SE CEZ 45 WSW PGA 35 N LAS 35 NE TPH 50 SW OWY 20 NW BOI 45 WNW 27U 65 ENE BIL 55 SSW GGW 65 SE FCA 40 E EPH 50 NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 NE MTW 30 WSW DBQ 20 WNW UIN 20 ESE CMI 30 W DAY 30 NNW CRW 15 NE BLF 25 NNE DAN 15 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EPM 20 ENE PWM 20 SSW EEN 30 WNW ELM 25 NNW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ND AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN CANADA...AS STRONGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES. A BAND OF 50-60 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS NM AND TX. IN THE EAST...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NNEWD FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF AND FL TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ...PLAINS STATES... A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER S... INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES NWD...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS TO TX THIS PERIOD WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN NEB ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE. A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF WRN KS/NEB TO THE ERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG A SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. NEW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AND SWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW IN CO AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ FROM NWRN OK INTO SWRN NEB WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. FURTHER N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS FURTHER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND VEERS TO SWLY...ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ...GULF COAST STATES... A MOISTURE LADEN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. MODERATE SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELLS. ...FL... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CENTRAL/SWRN TX... THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WEST CENTRAL TX /BETWEEN MAF AND ABI/. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 17:43:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 12:43:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506011753.j51Hr82l014410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011733 SWODY2 SPC AC 011732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 NNE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 40 SE HOB 15 WNW PVW 30 ESE DHT 30 W EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 20 NE 4FC 20 N CYS 55 E CDR 40 W 9V9 20 SSW ABR 50 ENE JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 ENE STC 10 NE MKT 20 WSW FOD 10 WNW STJ 40 S PNC 30 W SEP JCT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 10 SW CVS 20 WNW CAO 40 WNW TAD 20 SE CEZ 35 SW PGA 50 N LAS 30 SE U31 35 WSW OWY 65 NE BOI 35 N WEY 10 N RIW 40 S CPR 20 S RAP 25 SSW Y22 50 SW DIK 40 SSE BIL 50 NW 3HT 40 NNE 3DU 40 E EPH 50 NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 NE MTW 30 WSW DBQ 20 WNW UIN 20 ESE CMI 30 W DAY 30 NNW CRW 15 NE BLF 25 NNE DAN 15 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EPM 15 SSE AUG 20 ESE LEB 10 WSW GFL 20 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST W OF BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT NE AND INTO NRN MEXICO OR SW TX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. THROUGH NRN GULF SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD. ...NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS OR WRN MN AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NWD INTO CANADA. SRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NEB. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST FARTHER SWD ACROSS ERN CO AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THURSDAY EVENING. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP AND EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN KS. THE DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND WRN TX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS INTO EXTREME SRN NEB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES...MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO AND SERN WY AND SPREAD EWD. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT OVER PARTS OF SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ...SRN PLAINS... THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SWRN TX... MODELS EJECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SWRN TX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. ...FL... OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND POOR LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 06:06:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 01:06:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506020615.j526FqpB021944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020612 SWODY2 SPC AC 020611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 30 S SOP 20 W RWI 55 S RIC 25 ENE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MAF 10 ENE MAF 10 E LBB 45 NE AMA 30 NE LAA 30 SE LIC 35 E FCL 35 SW BFF 25 WNW VTN 35 WNW BKX 30 NW MKT 10 ESE FOD 35 SSW OTM IRK 20 ESE JEF 25 SSW UNO 25 SE HOT 25 NNW SHV 55 SSW TYR 20 NNW AUS 45 SW JCT 70 SSE MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 25 WNW INK 40 SE CVS 25 E TCC 25 ESE LVS 40 WNW 4SL 45 SE PGA 35 NE LAS 65 W P38 45 WSW ELY 30 W DPG 15 SSW EVW 40 WNW RWL 35 WSW DGW 30 SSW GCC 40 WSW SHR 55 NW RIW 45 E MLD 60 S BYI 35 NNW OWY 35 SSW BKE 15 SSW EPH 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE IWD CWA 10 ESE JVL 35 SSW CGX 20 E LAF 25 SE DAY 30 S ZZV 35 ENE CRW 20 E EKN DCA 35 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 20 W BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF NRN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SWRN TX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL WEAKEN ON DAY 2...BUT MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD TO NERN CO...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SWD ACROSS ERN CO TO WRN TX. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY AND OZARKS... MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE INITIALIZATION WITH THIS MODEL. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN TX...AND ONE OR TWO MCS/S SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN MN. AIR MASS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NWWD TO EAST OF THE DRY LINE IN SWRN NEB/WRN KS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL FLOW E AND N OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN NEB/KS...AND LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. FURTHER S ACROSS OK/TX...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH SPREADS OVER THIS REGION AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL VEER TO WLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF FOUR CORNERS TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING BROAD LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS/S FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHER N ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS... BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. ...ERN NC... MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NNEWD THROUGH THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. ..PETERS.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 17:38:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 12:38:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506021748.j52Hm8em023954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021746 SWODY2 SPC AC 021745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 40 NNW FLO 10 WSW RDU 55 WSW ORF 15 E ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 40 SSE MAF 40 ESE LBB 40 ESE AMA 40 ENE DHT 45 SSE LHX 35 E COS 40 ENE DEN 35 WSW SNY 35 WSW MHN 40 SW 9V9 20 WSW ABR 65 NNE ATY 35 N RWF 20 ENE FOD 30 SW OTM 15 E COU 40 NNE UNO 55 NNE LIT 25 SSE HOT 40 NW SHV 60 NNE CLL 20 NE AUS 10 NE HDO 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE IWD CWA 10 ESE JVL 45 S SBN 40 SSW FDY 30 NW HLG 30 WSW AOO 30 W DOV 20 E SBY ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 25 WNW INK 40 SE CVS 25 E TCC 40 NNE LVS 35 NNW 4SL 70 N INW 55 SW SGU 25 W P38 10 SW ELY 25 SE DPG 35 SE EVW 40 WNW RWL 30 SSE CPR 50 NNW CPR 30 WNW WRL 45 ESE MLD 40 SSE TWF 30 WNW SUN 40 NW DLN 30 SE S06 40 WNW GEG 50 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 20 W BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO SWRN TX FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WILL CONTINUE NE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS EXTENDING SWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH KS AND CO. CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SERN CO/SW KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. ...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO NEB...AND THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF TX THROUGH OK AND KS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND WRN TX SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX INTO OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. KINEMATIC AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OTHER HIGH BASED SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. THE NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NEB. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT. ...ERN CAROLINAS... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NE THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT KINEMATIC AND SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 06:01:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 01:01:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506030610.j536AqE6016916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030607 SWODY2 SPC AC 030606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LBB 20 SE PVW 50 SSW GAG 25 ESE LBL 50 WNW GCK 40 NW GLD 35 NNW IML 30 ENE MHN 10 SSW BKX 15 WSW STC 25 S DLH 20 NW IWD 25 WSW MQT 45 SSW ESC 50 NNW DNV 35 SW BLV 10 SE PGO 25 W ACT 50 ENE DRT 70 NNW DRT 50 SSE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ANJ 25 SSE OSC 20 NE DTW 20 SE FDY 45 ENE LUK 40 E LEX 25 W JKL 35 WNW HSS 20 NNE AVL 30 W CLT 15 N FAY 25 ENE GSB 30 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 20 S AUO 35 WNW BHM 50 E PBF 40 ENE TXK 40 N GGG 45 W TYR 20 NNE AUS 35 SE HDO LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 35 ESE HOB 45 E TCC 45 N TCC 15 WNW RTN 55 NNE ALS 45 E GUC 40 W CAG 40 ESE BPI 20 SW WRL 40 SSW SHR 25 WSW GCC 25 WSW PHP 35 W 9V9 50 WNW HON 20 WNW ABR 25 WSW JMS 40 W DVL 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PWM 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK NWD AND EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AS MODEST LARGE SCALE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST ATOP RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PLUME FROM TX TO MN. A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND APPROACH THE UPR MS VLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MT/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE LEADING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...MOVING FROM ERN CO TO IA DURING SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT RESULTING FROM THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN TSTMS AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MN/WI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM IA SWWD ACROSS KS OK TO NW TX. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THOUGH THE DAY...THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...UPR MS VLY EARLY... AN MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER MN AND SWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO MO. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...FROM SRN MN/WI AREA TO ERN IA AND IL...MAY MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS INTO AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/WI INTO IL MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE DAY IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY. IF CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO BECOMES GREATER...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY WILL INCREASE. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG LATEST NAM/GFS THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM CO AND ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE PLAINS SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. NONETHELESS...45-50KT SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ATOP A CAPPED AND INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SRN NEB/KS INTO MO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY BE ADEQUATE TO ELIMINATE THE CAP...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN KS INTO NEB/IA. STORMS INITIATING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IF A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT PRODUCING TORNADOES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO REMAIN VEERED AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPR MS VLY SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LIMIT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF KS/MO/IA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK IN THE NEXT FEW OUTLOOKS IF MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A CLEARER SCENARIO OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS KS AND INTO MO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY MERGE INTO AT LEAST ONE MCS...MOST LIKELY OVER MO...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ...SRN PLAINS... DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE KS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVING INTO NRN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. INITIATION SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED BUT COULD OCCUR EITHER THROUGH STRONG SFC HEATING...OR WITH STORMS BACKBUILDING INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL OK INTO TX OVERNIGHT. SHEAR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT STRONGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. ..CARBIN.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:29:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:29:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506031738.j53Hcvm8026690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031736 SWODY2 SPC AC 031735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E FST 35 SSE CDS 40 SSW GAG 20 E EHA 45 WNW GCK 25 S HSI OFK 45 ENE ABR 25 SSE GFK 40 SSE RRT 10 NNW ELO 40 S CMX 35 ENE GRB 20 SSE CGX 15 NE DEC 10 WSW BLV 10 S DAL 35 NW HDO 55 NNW DRT 65 E FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PNS 55 S SEM 25 SSW TCL 30 E GWO 45 E ELD 15 ESE GGG 35 NE CLL 35 N NIR 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 30 SW P07 40 S LBB 30 S AMA 35 NNE TCC 20 ENE RTN 25 NNE ALS 25 W GUC 35 S RKS 15 ENE BPI 50 SSW COD 40 SSW SHR 60 ENE DGW 35 NNE CDR Y22 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 15 W CLE 25 NNE ZZV 25 SSW PKB 25 N BKW 15 N ROA 25 WSW RIC 15 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PWM 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER TX WILL EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND INTO NERN NM. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR EXTREME WRN OK SWD THROUGH W TX. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE DAY AND BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL EXTEND FROM WRN IA...THROUGH CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD INTO CNTRL OK SWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... GFS AND ECMWF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE ETA TENDS TO DAMPEN THIS FEATURE OUT TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS AND WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE FARTHER NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND FARTHER EAST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WHERE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS REGION. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS... THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK. HOWEVER...A STRONGER CAP WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THIS REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED OVER KS AND POSSIBLY INTO OK. STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER OK WHERE FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT MAY BE STRONGER AND WHERE FASTER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE STRONGER DRYLINE MIXING. FARTHER SWD INTO TX...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN KS ALONG THE FRONT MAY SPREAD SEWD INTO OK OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 06:30:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 01:30:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506040640.j546eDIk015508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040638 SWODY2 SPC AC 040637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E TOL 30 W DAY 35 E OWB 40 SW CKV 20 SW MKL 10 SW HOT 25 SE DUA 35 N BWD 45 W ABI 55 SE LBB 50 E AMA 25 SE END 35 S CNU 50 SSW SZL 15 NNW COU 15 WNW UIN 30 W MLI 15 SW DBQ 50 NE ALO 35 NNE RST 55 S DLH 35 E DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 30 E BHB ...CONT... 15 ENE PSM 15 ENE EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 7R4 40 SE ESF 25 SE SHV 35 S GGG 25 NNW AUS 25 E HDO 25 E LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 45 NE FST 30 E HOB 45 ESE TCC 35 N DHT 35 WSW HUT 20 SSW TOP 30 W P35 30 WNW DSM 20 S SUX 30 NNW OFK 30 ESE 9V9 40 NE PIR 45 ENE MBG 35 NNW JMS 70 NE DVL ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 40 NNE UCA 15 ENE TTN 25 SSE PHL 20 W WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 30 SE BIL 55 SSW COD EVW 25 ENE DPG 55 E U31 35 NW WMC 45 NNE SVE 55 SE RBL 30 WSW RBL 45 E ACV 30 NNE MHS 65 SSE RDM 45 NNW BNO 20 W BKE 25 WNW S80 45 SW S06 30 WNW S06 35 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST TO THE OZARKS AND PARTS OF OK/TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE AND SPEED WILL INCLUDE TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE LEADING WAVE WAS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO NRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS WARM SECTOR EXPANDS NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER SYSTEM/TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 44N 140W. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 120M PER 12H ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE/ID AND WRN MT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...APPARENTLY EVOLVING WITHIN MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN THE NWRN CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OVER THE FL PNHDL AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN MN INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO WI/NWRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. DIURNAL HEATING AND BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EROSION OF THE CAP AND PREFRONTAL STORM INITIATION FROM WI/MI SWWD ACROSS IND/IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING AND MASS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LAKE-INDUCED BOUNDARIES COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE MESOSCALE AND STORM-SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND WIND. AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...FROM CNTRL IL/IND TO MO ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT...STORMS IN CLUSTERS OR LINES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN OVER THE LAKES...MAGNITUDE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN POTENT UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED IN TIME/COVERAGE...AS FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. ...OK/TX AND OZARKS... DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOCUSED ALONG THIS ZONE. DESPITE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE AREA...AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW TOPPED BY 15-25KT 500MB WINDS ACROSS NW TX AND THE RED RIVER WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS OVER THESE AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST UNTIL AFTER DARK...A SMALL MCS COULD BE MAINTAINED AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES ASCENT AND INFLOW NEAR THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/ID AND WRN MT... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE UPR COLUMBIA VLY ACROSS ID AND WRN MT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEATING AHEAD OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE FRONT AS 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN DRAWBACK TO ISSUING HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLGT RISK ACROSS THE REGION IS THE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S F. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE RESULTS IN MLCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. WHILE THIS CAPE COULD EASILY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION...HAVE OPTED TO WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BEFORE INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 16:23:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 11:23:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506041633.j54GXAPE001093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041629 SWODY2 SPC AC 041628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW YNG 30 S MFD 25 N LEX 20 SSW BWG 10 NW MEM 20 SSE HOT 30 SSE PRX 20 NNE SEP 45 WNW SJT 25 S LBB 25 SE AMA 20 S END 45 N JLN 40 SSE IRK 20 ENE CID 20 NNW RST 70 NNE MSP 30 E DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 20 ENE LVM 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 30 SE BIL 55 SSW COD EVW 25 ENE DPG 55 E U31 35 NW WMC 45 NNE SVE 55 SE RBL 30 WSW RBL 45 E ACV 30 NNE MHS 65 SSE RDM 45 NNW BNO 30 NW BKE 50 NNW ALW 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LFT 30 S ESF 25 SSW SHV 50 SW TYR 25 NNW AUS 25 E HDO 25 E LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... P07 25 S INK 40 NNW HOB 35 NNE TCC 40 SSE DDC 40 W EMP 25 WSW P35 35 WNW DSM 30 SSE SUX 35 E BUB 15 NE VTN 25 SSE MBG 35 NNW JMS 60 NNE DVL ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CLM 50 NW DLS 50 NW RDM 40 N 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS WHERE IT SHOULD STALL OVER PARTS OK THROUGH W TX. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD AS NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVING INTO THE NWRN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND MAINTAIN A RATHER BROAD FETCH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. STORMS MAY ONGOING FROM DAY 1 OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS PRESENTS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST AND WHICH AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING ANY ONGOING STORMS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS ALONG OR AHEAD OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK INTO NRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. S OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...DRYLINE OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND TENDENCY FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN ROCKIES... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 05:55:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 00:55:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506050606.j5566tUP002521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050605 SWODY2 SPC AC 050604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE ISN 30 ENE MOT 15 S DVL 25 NW FAR 10 S FAR 60 W AXN 45 NNE ATY 25 W ATY 45 ENE PIR 40 NNE PHP 35 NNE RAP 15 SSE GCC 50 WSW GCC 40 W SHR 10 E BIL 65 E LWT 55 W GGW 75 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 10 NNW PSF 15 WSW POU 30 NE ABE 25 WSW ABE 10 NNE CXY 15 E AOO 30 WNW AOO 30 N LBE 20 ENE FKL 10 SSE JHW 25 NE JHW 25 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 ENE ROW 25 E TCC 35 N EHA 40 ESE GLD 15 W MCK 55 SW MHN 25 SSE AIA 25 WSW BFF 10 SW CYS 30 NW EGE 20 ENE PUC 35 NE U24 45 SSE EKO 20 ENE LOL 35 ENE SVE 25 ENE MHS 45 SE EUG 40 N PDX 45 S BLI 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 50 NNW IWD 30 SSW MTW 30 NNE BEH 15 SSE DTW ...CONT... 40 SW GLS 35 E CLL 50 NNE CLL 45 ENE ACT 35 S FTW 30 WNW SEP 40 WSW BWD 40 S SJT 10 ENE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NY INTO EXTREME WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WY AND ERN MT EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY OVER THE NEXT 24H WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM THE NRN/ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WSWWD TO THE OH VLY AND THEN TRAIL BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAN LARGE SCALE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A BAND OF DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR TO SPREAD ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PREFRONTAL AIR MASS FROM PA NWD ACROSS NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN AREA OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WY/MT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...LEE-SIDE SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NCNTRL WY AND SCNTRL MT. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE COMMON FROM THE LWR MS VLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OZARKS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS /SEE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC/. ...PA/NY... NAM AND NAMKF APPEAR TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NAM LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALSO APPEARING UNREASONABLY STEEP. NAMKF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR A BIT MORE REALISTIC AND MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WITH BANDS OR LINES OF PREFRONTAL STORMS INTENSIFYING AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT AND 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS FCST TO BE SITUATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF SRN PA. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS NY AND NRN PA FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF GREATER SHEAR AND FORCING TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WIND AND HAIL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD TO KY/TN AND THE OZARKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLGT RISK/HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SHEAR AND/OR FOCUS IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ...WY/MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG IS FCST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DEVELOPING LEE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN MT AND NERN WY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD/NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW...UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY FROM CELLS DEVELOPING EWD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT/LOW ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND BY EVENING. HIGH PLAINS MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ND AND PARTS OF NRN SD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 17:22:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 12:22:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506051733.j55HXVfu004399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051731 SWODY2 SPC AC 051730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE ISN 30 S DVL 20 W FAR 25 W AXN 25 NNW MKT 20 SSW FRM 35 S FSD 30 NNE 9V9 55 N PHP 35 SW REJ 30 SE CPR 50 NW RWL BPI 25 S WEY 45 W BIL 70 NE LWT 60 NE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PBG LEB ORH 25 ENE BDR 20 NE JFK 25 N SBY 25 NW RIC PSK LOZ BWG 20 SW OWB EVV 30 NNE SDF 15 N UNI 35 WNW HLG 30 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 SW DLH 15 S LSE 25 ENE DBQ 40 SSW RFD 35 SE MMO 45 NE LAF 30 NNE FWA 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 S VCT 25 N VCT LFK TXK MKO BVO SLN LBF 60 SE AIA BFF 25 NNW 4FC 30 WNW EGE U28 ELY LOL SVE MHS 30 ENE EUG OLM 35 S BLI 45 E BLI ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 30 NE ROW 30 N TCC 20 NW AMA 40 SSW CDS 40 WSW ABI 25 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OH/PA/NY INTO EXTREME WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WY/MT EAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN MN...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NERN STATES... WHILE A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN NY SWWD INTO NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST..A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SERN MT/NERN WY MONDAY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE SD MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THOUGH OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE...WILL BE A SHARPENING WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND SEWD INTO NRN IA/IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PA/NY REGIONS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ON NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THESE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN TROUGH IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OR LINES OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE WITH ORGANIZED LINES ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. ...KY EWD INTO DELMARVA... THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN THE 20 KT RANGE...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION SO NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...WY/MT... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/LIFTING SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HAIL IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST. ...DAKOTAS INTO SWRN MN... STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT AND WY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO ND AND NRN SD DURING THE EVENING...DUE TO STRENGTHING LOW LEVEL JET NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SWRN MN AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WIND THE STORMS. SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 06:04:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 01:04:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506060615.j566FmTY026419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060613 SWODY2 SPC AC 060612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 9V9 35 WSW 9V9 10 WNW PIR 25 SSE MBG 55 ENE MBG 45 SSW FAR 25 NE AXN 35 WNW EAU 15 NE RST 35 SSE FRM 30 NNE SUX 20 W YKN 50 SSE 9V9. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 W TVC 30 SSE MBL 30 SSE MKG 30 ESE RFD 20 NNW DBQ 40 NW DSM 15 SSW OMA 45 W BIE 25 SW HSI 30 NNE MCK 45 E SNY 35 WNW SNY 40 NW BFF 40 WSW RAP 10 NW REJ 35 NNE DIK 15 W P24 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS 15 WNW PSF 10 SSW JHW 20 W CAK 25 WSW ZZV 30 NNE CRW 20 NW SHD 25 WSW DCA 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 20 WSW 7R4 35 WNW POE 35 WSW PRX 40 NNW FTW 30 SE ABI 20 E SJT 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 15 SSW HOB 20 NW AMA 15 WSW LBL 40 SW GLD 25 SSW AKO 50 ESE VEL 20 WNW SLC 40 W TWF 40 WSW BOI 25 E BNO 30 SSE RDM 40 NW RDM 20 SSE SEA 15 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM ND/MN TO WI...PARTS OF MI...IL..IA...AND NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ATOP EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LIFTING ENEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY ONE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA. DEEP LAYER FRONT WITHIN THIS SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW AND MOVING ENEWD TO THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A LEADING IMPULSE... NOW MOVING OVER NV/ID...IS EXPECTED TO SPUR AN MCS EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING AND BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE REINFORCEMENT BEHIND THIS LEADING MCS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/SD/IA AND MN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL PLAINS SWD TO OK AND WEST TX. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN BUT STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGH PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...NEB/DAKOTAS TO IA/MN/WI AND MI... WHILE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING EAST FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXIST ON THE NRN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION...FROM NEB NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FUEL AN EARLY MORNING MCS OVER MN AND WI EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM NEB NWD ACROSS SD...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF MN/IA WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PLUME OF WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM NEB SWD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONGER INHIBITION THESE AREAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. NEXT IMPULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER WRN NEB/SD. AS ADIABATIC ASCENT AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ACT TO OVERCOME THE CAP...RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL NEAR THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN SD INTO THE EVENING. STRENGTH OF THE CAP OVER NEB/IA LENDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TSTM COVERAGE THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER IS STORMS CAN INITIATE. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND FORCING WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ADVANCING DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE DURING LATE EVENING AS SEVERE STORMS MERGE ACROSS THE REGION AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS MODULATED BY SYNOPTIC LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN NEB/ERN SD ACROSS MN AND NRN IA...THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUING. ..CARBIN.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:24:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:24:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506061735.j56HZTXK005994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061733 SWODY2 SPC AC 061732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE AIA 55 SSW PHP 15 NNE PHP MBG 35 SSW JMS FAR 40 NNE AXN 35 NNE RWF 20 NE OTG 40 N SUX 20 ENE BUB 20 E MHN 45 ENE AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 35 SW ESC 20 ESE MTW 30 SSW MKE CID 20 NNW LWD FNB SLN P28 CSM 35 WNW ABI BGS 45 SSW LBB PVW 10 ENE LBL 45 SW HLC 40 NNE GLD 35 WNW IML 25 SW BFF 25 ENE DGW 81V DIK P24 35 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS UCA 15 SSE ROC CAK 15 W ZZV 30 NNE CRW 40 S EKN CHO WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE CRP 30 NW VCT 40 S CLL 50 N HOU LFK GGG 45 ENE PRX 40 NE DUA ADM 45 SE SPS JCT 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF HOB 20 WNW AMA 25 W GCK GLD DEN 50 ESE VEL 15 SSE SLC OWY 50 SSW BNO 30 SSE RDM 30 WNW RDM SEA 15 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD...NRN NEB..WRN MN...AND SWRN ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO WRN KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLE... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ..SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE RESULTING IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS A STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD INTO SERN WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...UNTIL THE SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT AN MCS WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LINEAR SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. BACK TO WEST...FROM NEB NEWD INTO WRN MN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AT LEAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION FROM CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO ERN ND/WRN MN ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO NEB LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER BASED STORMS MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STRENGTHING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A FORECAST OF WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE FUELED BY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. ONCE THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK... CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA AS FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL JET IN MEXICO AND POLAR JET FROM WY INTO SD. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHARPENING DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP... A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO THE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND NOT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND MID EVENING. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 06:08:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 01:08:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506070619.j576JE3j009939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070616 SWODY2 SPC AC 070615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 70 NE BGS 60 SSW GAG 40 ENE LBL 30 S GLD 30 ESE LIC 30 E DEN 25 NNW DEN 35 NW FCL 35 W BFF 10 NE AIA 20 NNE MHN 35 NNE BUB 30 ENE OLU 30 WNW OMA 50 E SUX 25 NNW FRM 35 ENE RWF 20 WSW BRD 30 SSW BJI 30 S TVF 25 WNW TVF 80 W RRT ...CONT... 55 ESE ANJ 25 ESE CGX 10 E BMI 40 SSW BLV 40 NE UNO 30 S SGF 30 W FYV 25 ENE ADM 15 SSE ADM 30 ESE SEP 45 S BWD 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE HVR 20 S GGW 35 ENE 4BQ 15 W RAP 40 N VTN 15 NNE MHE 20 E ATY 60 N ATY 40 ENE JMS 10 E DVL 60 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 10 SE PWM ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 20 NE POU 10 ESE CXY 20 SSE MRB 10 S CHO 45 E DAN 15 ESE RWI 45 SW HSE ...CONT... 25 W 7R4 20 N POE 40 N ELD 45 ESE FSM PGO 40 NW TYR 40 ENE ACT 25 ESE TPL AUS 15 W SAT 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 SE CVS 20 SSW LBL 45 ESE LAA 45 NW COS 30 NW 4FC 35 SW RWL RKS 30 E EVW 25 NE DPG 30 WSW ELY 35 NE TPH 55 N BIH 50 ESE TVL 25 N RNO 60 NW LOL 70 WNW WMC 85 E 4LW 55 SSE BNO 40 SW PDT 40 NE EPH 20 WSW 63S 35 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SEVERE MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL ARC FROM A SFC LOW OVER ND SEWD THROUGH WRN MN...THEN SWD/SWWD FROM NWRN IA INTO SWRN KS...THEN BACK WWD INTO ERN CO. THIS COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY...A POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL MCS OUTFLOW TO THE EAST ACROSS MN/WI/NRN MI...AND THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM KS TO TX WILL ALL BE FEATURES THAT RESULT IN STRONG AND SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN WY AND NERN CO COULD ALSO AID LATE DAY/EVENING TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A SMALL MCS POSSIBLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB LATE. ELSEWHERE...WRN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WEAK FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...UPR MS VLY TO MO/KS... DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN GFS/NAM GUIDANCE AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MIDWEST MCS AND LARGER SCALE CYCLONE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...HIGHER ACCURACY IN THE LOCATION OF GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN THIS OUTLOOK. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF HIGHER TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM SRN WI...SWWD ACROSS NRN IL...MO...AND INTO TO SERN KS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. WHILE THIS CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIE BENEATH RELATIVELY MARGINAL MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25KT... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF DECAYING FRONTAL CIRCULATION/WIND SHIFT SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. ...OK/TX... ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK...SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO TX. MARGINAL FLOW/SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPENSATED FOR BY VERY STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL LIE BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY AID IN MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE EXHAUST ONCE STORMS FORM. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NERN CO TO NEB LATE... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SERN WY/NERN CO DURING THE DAY WHILE RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY...STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR DUSK WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNSET...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...AID ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN CO TO NEB THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 17:34:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 12:34:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506071745.j57HjHlV005671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071743 SWODY2 SPC AC 071742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 35 ENE BMI 10 S ALN 40 WNW UNO 15 S MKO 15 SSE ADM 35 S BWD 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 90 SW P07 10 NNE MAF 35 E PVW 35 W GAG 15 SSE GCK 30 SSE GLD 20 WNW LIC 15 SSW FCL 30 NNW CYS 30 WNW AIA 20 WSW VTN 35 SW YKN SUX 20 WNW SPW 25 NW RWF 40 NW AXN 35 SSW TVF 70 NNW TVF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW P24 30 SSE DIK 30 S REJ 30 WNW PHP 30 SW PIR 10 NNW HON 40 NNE ATY 45 ENE JMS 25 SSW DVL 20 WSW P24 ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 W LBB 40 N AMA 40 WNW EHA 25 SSE PUB 30 NNE EGE 20 S RWL 40 NNE RKS 30 NNE EVW 40 N ENV 30 SSW OWY 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 35 WNW AUG 15 NW PSM 25 SSW ORH 30 NNE EWR 10 N PHL 25 SE NHK 20 NNW ECG 25 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OVER ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS...SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO NWRN KS AND SERN CO. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MN AND NRN WI. THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE NRN PART OF COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING WI OVERNIGHT. TRAILING PART OF FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER KS THEN LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES E OF KS LEE LOW. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH W TX...NW OK AND NWD INTO KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD A SHORT DISTANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE EVENING. ...UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN PART OF UPPER GREAT LAKES... MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WI EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EVOLUTION OF EARLY MCS IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ONCE SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS POTENTIAL FOCI FOR INITIATION. STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN INTO WI. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... MUCH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND THE CAP WEAKENS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO. LIMITED MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL REGIME SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 600 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NEB OR A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS IN THIS REGION. ..DIAL.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 06:19:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 01:19:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506080631.j586V2Dq028834@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080628 SWODY2 SPC AC 080627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FTW 30 WSW MWL 20 W BWD 25 NW JCT 70 SSW SJT 15 ENE P07 35 ESE FST 30 N BGS 40 NNW CDS 45 SW GAG 40 SE LBL 25 N LBL 40 SSW LIC 30 SE DEN 30 ESE CYS 20 NNE AIA 25 NNW VTN 20 ESE 9V9 30 NE FSD 25 NNE FRM 30 W RST 15 NNW LSE 35 SE CWA 20 SSE MTW 40 SW MKG 50 N LAF 30 NE MTO 30 NNW MDH 50 NW POF 25 NE HRO 10 SE FYV 25 WNW FSM 30 SW MLC 20 E ADM 40 N FTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BOS 35 NW EWR 30 E HGR 30 NNW RIC 30 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 25 SSE GGG 20 SSW TYR 20 ENE ACT 20 SE JCT 40 NE DRT DRT ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30 WNW MAF 25 WNW LBB 15 N AMA 40 W EHA 35 WNW RTN 55 NE 4SL 30 SE FMN 75 NW GUP 70 N INW 35 NW PRC 30 WNW EED 20 NNE DAG 15 S NID 20 W FAT 30 NE SAC 50 W RNO 15 N NFL 20 N U31 45 NW ELY 40 WSW DPG 45 SE SLC 45 SSE RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NNE RWL 40 E RIW 55 ESE JAC 35 SW JAC 40 NNE BYI 20 SSE SUN 55 WNW SUN 70 W 27U 35 SSW MSO 55 ESE FCA 50 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 35 NNE JMS 20 S BRD 55 WSW IWD 20 ENE IWD 10 NNE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CNTRL U.S. INCLUDING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WITH NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WIDE VARIETY OF SCENARIOS. THIS WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS A FUNCTION OF AT LEAST TWO PROCESSES THAT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR AT DEALING WITH...1) ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN DRIVING FUTURE FRONTAL AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND 2) FAST MOVING AND LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES/FRONTS. WITH THESE ISSUES IN MIND...THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE LATEST NCEP-SREF TSTM GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE NAMKF MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EMERGING FROM THE LARGER SCALE LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND BE SITUATED WELL NORTH OF BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL ARC FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS IA BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEB INTO NERN CO/SERN WY. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...A NUMBER OF MCS-INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE SITUATED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IL ACROSS MO AND INTO KS. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SMALL MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB. WHILE A SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE U.P OF MI DURING THE DAY...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS IA/WI AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE TRAVELS NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH HEATING AND DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT VICINITY SERN CO/SWRN KS. FURTHERMORE...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND DRYLINE OVER TX/OK...WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD TSTM SUSTENANCE/DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR. ...MIDWEST TO LWR MI... STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL FUEL TSTM INTENSIFICATION FROM IA...ACROSS NRN IL/WI...TO LWR MI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIE BENEATH THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT /20-30KT/ AND MARGINALLY ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY ALIGN NORMAL TO THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS COULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL WAVE FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SWRN WI/NWRN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF CONVECTION REMAINS CELLULAR AND TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...ENHANCED TORNADO RISK MAY ENSUE. ...ERN CO/KS/NEB... MOIST SELY/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND FRONT AS SFC HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MIXING ACT TO ELIMINATE THE CAP. SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND... AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL WSWLY TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING IN EXTENSIVE MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS THE OH VLY AND SOUTHEAST. A FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS FCST TO COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ON THE WRN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RESULT MAY BE SCATTERED POTENT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NY ACROSS PARTS OF VT AND NH. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS/SOUTHEAST... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PULSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND RANDOM DOWNBURSTS. ...ERN MT TO WRN DAKOTAS... MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITHIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS MIGHT PROMOTE A FEW LOW-TOPPED HAILSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:40:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:40:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506081751.j58Hp8Vi032629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081730 SWODY2 SPC AC 081729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SPS 40 S ABI 55 N DRT 10 SE P07 40 WNW P07 50 SSW LBB 20 NNE PVW 55 NE AMA 20 NNW LBL 40 ESE LAA 40 SSW LIC 30 SE DEN 25 SSE CYS 15 ENE BFF 15 SSW 9V9 40 WSW RWF 10 SSW MSP 35 ESE EAU 40 W OSH 30 ENE JVL 20 NE MMO BMI 15 SE SPI 35 WSW STL 25 W TBN 40 NNW FYV 40 WNW MLC 35 SE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS 45 NNW HOU 10 NNW CLL 15 S TPL 60 E JCT 40 SSW JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 35 NW MAF 30 WSW PVW 35 E DHT 35 WNW EHA 45 SW PUB 25 NNW CEZ 35 WNW U17 45 E MLF 15 WSW U24 15 E DPG SLC 35 NNW VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 W RWL 15 SSW LND 55 E MLD 25 SSW BYI 50 S BOI 40 WNW BOI 55 ENE BKE 50 NNE S80 35 NNW S06 35 N 63S ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SSE DVL 55 SSW BJI 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 30 NNW HYA 25 NNE EWR 10 NNE ILG 40 SSE NHK 30 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD INTO MT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SWRN STATES. THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER KS AND THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER WRN KS. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LEE LOW IN WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX. ...CNTRL PLAINS AREA THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB EARLY THURSDAY. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS MAY REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NRN KS OR SRN NEB. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SHOULD RESIDE IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE FROM KS NWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NERN CO AND HELP TO ADVECT HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THAT REGION. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF KS INTO PARTS OF NEB AND EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO EWD THROUGH NRN KS AND SRN NEB AS THE CAP WEAKENS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK DRYLINE CONVERGENCE...FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. THIS MAKES THE THREAT IN THIS AREA MORE CONDITIONAL. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NERN U.S... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SW. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 06:58:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 01:58:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506090709.j5979Miq002208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090703 SWODY2 SPC AC 090703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ICT 10 NW END 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40 SSE LBB 10 SW PVW 10 W AMA 30 ENE DHT 35 NE CAO 50 SSE LHX 25 N LAA GLD 55 ENE HLC 10 ENE CNK 10 WSW MHK 30 S MHK 20 SE ICT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 20 SSE AUG 10 SE LCI 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 25 ENE FLO 50 W SAV 20 SW AYS 25 NE CTY 25 SSE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 30 NW MAF 60 NNE HOB 25 N CVS 30 WNW TCC 25 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 50 W PUB 35 SE DEN 50 E SNY 30 ENE MHN 15 SW MHE 55 NW RWF 20 SSE BRD 40 SW DLH 55 SSE DLH 45 NE EAU 40 NW VOK 25 W LNR 20 SE CID 40 NNW COU 25 SE SZL 40 NNE JLN 45 SSE CNU 10 W TUL 35 WSW ADM 40 N BWD 45 SW BWD 40 WSW JCT 45 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES....WRN/NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS AND A SMALL PART OF SERN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM S TX TO THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. A SW/NE ORIENTED BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY/NRN MEXICO TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THIS BAND OF FLOW WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM KS TO MN. A LEADING IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB TO MN DURING FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER AZ/NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN OK AND WRN TX... PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WHEN COMPARED TO PRIOR MODEL RUNS. NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP-SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 45-60KT 500MB WIND MAX AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN THIS MOISTURE GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM UPSTREAM TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPENING LEE-SIDE LOW SHOULD BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF OK/KS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL JET FORCING ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT IS JUST AS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FAVORABLY POSITIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR STORM INITIATION/ORGANIZATION LATER IN THE DAY. INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID AND VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS INFLOW WILL DRIVE A VARIETY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THROUGH THE EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE MERGING/MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND MCS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LOW OVER KS/NWRN OK. DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN NAM/NAMKF MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE NAM APPEAR TO BE TOO DEEPLY MIXED/DRY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS...THE NAMKF PROFILES APPEAR MORE REALISTIC IN DEPICTING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOWER LFC OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES DO INTRODUCE A GREATER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. NONETHELESS...FOCUS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THESE FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST AND ROTATE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...UPR MIDWEST... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SFC WAVE AND BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MO VLY. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FROM NEB/IA TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. ...SWRN FL... GFS AND LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING OUTER BANDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF TD #1 MAY BRUSH SECTIONS OF SWRN FL DURING FRIDAY. A LOW PROBABILITY OF ROTATING TSTMS WITHIN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE KEYS TO TAMPA BAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 07:10:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 02:10:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506090721.j597LdB2006217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090713 SWODY2 SPC AC 090713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ICT 10 NW END 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40 SSE LBB 10 SW PVW 10 W AMA 30 ENE DHT 35 NE CAO 50 SSE LHX 25 N LAA GLD 55 ENE HLC 10 ENE CNK 10 WSW MHK 30 S MHK 20 SE ICT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 30 NW MAF 60 NNE HOB 25 N CVS 30 WNW TCC 25 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 50 W PUB 35 SE DEN 50 E SNY 30 ENE MHN 15 SW MHE 55 NW RWF 20 SSE BRD 40 SW DLH 55 SSE DLH 45 NE EAU 40 NW VOK 25 W LNR 20 SE CID 40 NNW COU 25 SE SZL 40 NNE JLN 45 SSE CNU 10 W TUL 35 WSW ADM 40 N BWD 45 SW BWD 40 WSW JCT 45 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AUG 10 SE LCI 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 25 ENE FLO 50 W SAV 20 SW AYS 25 NE CTY 25 SSE DAB ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES....WRN/NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS AND A SMALL PART OF SERN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM S TX TO THE UPR MS VLY... CORRECTED TO ADD ANCHOR POINTS TO SLGT RISK LINE ...SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. A SW/NE ORIENTED BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY/NRN MEXICO TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THIS BAND OF FLOW WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM KS TO MN. A LEADING IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB TO MN DURING FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER AZ/NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN OK AND WRN TX... PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WHEN COMPARED TO PRIOR MODEL RUNS. NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP-SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 45-60KT 500MB WIND MAX AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN THIS MOISTURE GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM UPSTREAM TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPENING LEE-SIDE LOW SHOULD BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF OK/KS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL JET FORCING ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT IS JUST AS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FAVORABLY POSITIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR STORM INITIATION/ORGANIZATION LATER IN THE DAY. INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID AND VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS INFLOW WILL DRIVE A VARIETY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THROUGH THE EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE MERGING/MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND MCS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LOW OVER KS/NWRN OK. DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN NAM/NAMKF MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE NAM APPEAR TO BE TOO DEEPLY MIXED/DRY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS...THE NAMKF PROFILES APPEAR MORE REALISTIC IN DEPICTING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOWER LFC OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES DO INTRODUCE A GREATER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. NONETHELESS...FOCUS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THESE FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST AND ROTATE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...UPR MIDWEST... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SFC WAVE AND BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MO VLY. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FROM NEB/IA TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. ...SWRN FL... GFS AND LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING OUTER BANDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF TD #1 MAY BRUSH SECTIONS OF SWRN FL DURING FRIDAY. A LOW PROBABILITY OF ROTATING TSTMS WITHIN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE KEYS TO TAMPA BAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 17:19:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 12:19:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506091730.j59HUiXT029418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091725 SWODY2 SPC AC 091724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW END 40 ENE CSM 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40 SSE LBB 15 W PVW 30 W AMA 15 NNE DHT 30 WSW EHA 40 NW EHA 45 ENE LAA 40 NNW GCK 15 NNW RSL 25 WNW SLN 25 E HUT 20 SSW ICT 20 NW END. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 20 ENE OTM 50 SW IRK 40 WNW SEP 35 W JCT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 30 NNW MAF 30 NNE CVS 40 NNW TCC 35 S PUB 25 S AKO 20 SE BBW 30 NNW SUX 85 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 45 S FLO 25 W SAV 10 SSE AYS 30 SSW JAX 25 SSE DAB ...CONT... 35 ENE PWM 20 ENE CON 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL KS...WRN OK...THE TX PNHDL AND WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE WRN U.S. EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN WY AND SRN CA WILL BE FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORMER WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE LATTER TRANSLATES OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS TROUGH /INITIALLY OVER SWRN MN AT 10/12Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY EARLY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO DEEPENING...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN TX. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT EWD MIXING OF DRYLINE WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING ALONG OR JUST E OF THE TX/NM BORDER AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON S OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST FROM SERN NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN KS...INCREASING TO 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS WRN OK...THE TX PNHDL AND WRN TX. EXCESSIVE MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARS TO BE IN ERROR BASED ON OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS TX...WITH NAMKF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY FORECASTS MORE REASONABLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONDITION LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT...DRYLINE AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 30-40 KTS/ FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STORMS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG MERGING/ORGANIZING MESOSCALE COLD POOLS. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH WEAK AND POORLY ORIENTED HIGH-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW WILL RAPIDLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...HIGH-PRECIPITATION STORMS. ...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA. INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF ENVIRONMENT NEWD INTO NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. GIVEN MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 40 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. ...ME/NRN NEW ENGLAND... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL QUEBEC EWD INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...SWRN FL NWD TO THE FL PNHDL/CNTRL GULF COAST... LATEST TPC FORECAST HAS CENTER OF T.S. ARLENE NEAR 19.4N AND 84.1W...WITH AN EVENTUAL POSITION OF 28.5N AND 87.5W BY 11/12Z. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG FORWARD RIGHT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY LAND FALLING RAIN BANDS OVER SWRN FL FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE FL PNHDL INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 05:53:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 00:53:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506120604.j5C64pOD017842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120602 SWODY2 SPC AC 120601 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTW 30 WNW AZO 15 WNW MIE 30 NE OWB 20 NNW MKL 20 NNE PBF 30 SE DUA 25 SSE OKC 15 W EMP 20 NNW BIE 40 NE ANW 35 N 9V9 10 S ABR 55 W AXN 60 SSW DLH 30 NE AUW MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 10 SSW MAF 25 SSW CDS 55 E AMA 15 E DHT 40 NW TAD 15 ENE ASE 15 SSE RKS 20 W JAC 15 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 55 NE BKE 30 ENE 4LW 25 WSW LMT 45 SE EUG 25 E PDX 45 WNW EAT 50 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 35 NNW ESF 10 W SHV 65 SSW TYR 40 SSE AUS 10 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/MN...SWD ACROSS IA/MO/IL INTO ERN OK/AR... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING IN REGARDS TO SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW AS IT EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN MN LATE IN THE PERIOD. CENTRAL CO SPEED MAX SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO SWRN IA BY PEAK HEATING. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO EXIT REGION ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK...BENEATH ERN PORTIONS OF OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...COLD FRONT SHOULD SURGE EWD ACROSS KS INTO WRN MO BY 14/00Z ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. STRONG FORCING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LATE DAY1 THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POST MCS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BENEATH ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LOW INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...WITH ANOTHER STRONG ZONE OF HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF ARCING FRONT FROM OK INTO SWRN MO. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS SD/MN/IA SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG OCCLUDING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. STRONGER ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAIN WARM SECTOR FROM NERN OK INTO SERN IA/WCNTRL IL WHERE SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 3000 J/KG. THIS AXIS OF INTENSIFYING BUOYANCY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IF DAY1 CONVECTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE THIS ENVIRONMENT IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IF SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES AS FORECAST. ..DARROW.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:26:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:26:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506121737.j5CHbbbg031782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121735 SWODY2 SPC AC 121734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKE 25 NNE FWA 30 NNW DAY LUK 25 S SDF 35 W HOP 25 SSW ARG 15 WNW HOT 40 S PRX 20 E DAL 35 N FTW 40 WSW ADM 35 NE OKC 20 SW EMP 40 S BIE 30 ENE GRI 50 NNE BUB 15 ESE 9V9 35 W ATY 25 S AXN 45 NE MSP 20 W CWA 35 NE MKE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 10 SSW MAF 25 SSW CDS 55 E AMA 15 E DHT 40 NW TAD 15 ENE ASE 15 SSE RKS 25 SW JAC 35 E 27U 25 WSW MSO 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 35 WSW 7R4 35 NNW ESF 20 SSW SHV 45 WNW LFK 40 SSE AUS 10 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY THEN CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD OCCLUDE OVER NEB EARLY MONDAY THEN MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWWD THROUGH NEB...KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH W TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SRN PORTION CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH OK...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM ERN KS THROUGH PART OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEYS. THIS PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE EARLY STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. WITH UPPER FLOW ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM S TO N AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...MUCH OF THE ANVIL DEBRIS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE N SIDE OF THE MCS. THIS SUGGESTS SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR TO THE S AND E OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO INTO SRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WITHIN THE ONGOING MCS MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF EARLY ACTIVITY FARTHER W FROM PARTS OF ERN KS OR WRN MO SWD INTO ERN OK AND NRN TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. FARTHER NWD NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION FROM ERN NEB...SERN SD INTO WRN IA...DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NEWD AND INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING. STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND SWD ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD INTO ERN NEB AND SPREAD EWD. COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEARER THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXIST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD...NRN IA INTO SRN MN...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE LOW IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 05:54:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 00:54:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506130605.j5D65ZSN020043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130603 SWODY2 SPC AC 130602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ROC 20 SSW ELM 15 NNE HGR 25 NNW SSU 30 NW HSS 25 ENE HSV 35 NNW MLU 30 WNW HOT 40 NE JBR 50 WSW EVV 20 NW BMG 45 SW SBN 25 N CGX 10 NW JVL 20 SSE LSE 20 WNW EAU 60 WSW IWD 25 WSW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP ABQ 40 SSE GUC 20 WNW COS 40 SE LIC 40 NNW EHA 55 NNE AMA 35 WSW CSM 55 E OKC 25 SSW HRO 30 NW POF 20 ESE SPI 35 NNW PIA 25 SSW ALO 30 ESE SPW 50 SSW AXN 25 W BJI 45 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 85 WNW MLS 35 WSW BIL 10 NNW JAC 10 W OGD 55 SE EKO 25 NW WMC 35 ESE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 WSW MHS 40 ESE EUG AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO ERN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW ACROSS MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. EVEN SO...NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AS UPPER SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT...TRANSITIONS SEWD ACROSS IND/OH. AT THE SFC...MID DAY FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL WI...ARCING SEWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE DAY1 CONVECTION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION OVERTURNING INSTABILITY...REMNANTS OF ARLENE ALLOWED TROPICAL AIRMASS TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ENABLING SFC BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER LINE SEGMENTS. FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK WILL INITIATE A BIT LATER DUE TO MORE CAPPING AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM NERN TX INTO THIS REGION YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FLOW DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND WWD INTO NCNTRL TX...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE INSTABILITY. THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 17:29:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 12:29:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506131740.j5DHeEdx029842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131738 SWODY2 SPC AC 131737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART 15 S ITH 15 NNE HGR 20 SW SSU HSS 35 N BHM 20 S UOX 25 W MEM 20 WSW HOP 30 SSW BMG 40 NNE LAF 40 NNW CGX 20 SSE LNR 25 SSW VOK 20 WSW CWA 40 ESE RHI 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 35 SE ELP ABQ 40 SSE GUC 20 WNW COS 40 SE LIC 40 NNW EHA 65 S LBL 30 WNW CSM 55 WNW MLC 10 WSW UNO 50 ESE VIH 35 SE UIN 20 W UIN 15 W IRK 30 W P35 45 NNE FNB 15 NNE OFK 20 NNW MHE 35 N HON 55 ENE ABR 30 E FAR 35 ESE INL ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 85 WNW MLS 35 WSW BIL 10 NNW JAC 20 WNW SLC 35 NW ELY 15 SW U31 35 ESE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 WSW MHS 40 ESE EUG AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE TN VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS MN AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING TUESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE LWR/ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 50 KT WILL TRANSITION EWD ACROSS IND/OH DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM GREAT LAKES CYCLONE OVER LAKE MI AND ARC SEWD THROUGH LWR MI/IND...AND THEN EXTEND SSWWD TO THE LWR OH VLY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS ERN IND... OH/KY... AND THEN TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY MCS OUTFLOW....WILL DEVELOP INTO WEST/SW TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMAINS OF TROPICAL LOW ARLENE ARE FCST TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR FUELING TSTM CLUSTERS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE SMALL SCALE LOW. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A BAND OF STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MOVING FROM ERN WA/ORE EWD ACROSS ID AND WRN MT. ...GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY... SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND WITHIN DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER LINE SEGMENTS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... FOCUSED AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A SMALL SFC LOW MOVING SEWD FROM ERN NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON. 40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRODUCE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF INTENSE ORGANIZED STORMS. MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE QUITE STRONG ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED WARM/MARINE FRONT FROM SRN NH INTO ERN MA/RI. CELLS TRACKING ALONG THIS POTENTIAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE. AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER OUTLOOK AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ...SW TX... THIS AREA MAY ALSO REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS FRONTAL SURGE LOCATION BECOMES BETTER FCST IN LATER GUIDANCE. FRONT WILL SPREAD SWWD INTO STRONGLY CAPPED BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH INTENSE SFC HEATING...FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DUE TO LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW TOPPED BY GENERALLY WEAK WLY/NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES... A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY PACIFIC FRONT AS IT SPREADS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 17:25:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 12:25:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506141736.j5EHavpG025484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141734 SWODY2 SPC AC 141733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE 4CR 50 SW COS 10 NNW FCL 30 NNE SNY 30 ESE LBF 40 NNW CNK 20 NNE MHK 30 S TOP 30 NW JLN 35 SW JLN TUL 35 ESE END 30 WSW END 40 S GAG 60 NNW CDS 35 W CDS 10 SW LBB 55 N HOB 55 NE 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 10 S MPV 10 SW EEN 25 NNE BDR 25 W BDR 40 NE ABE 25 SSE AVP 30 NNW IPT 30 ENE BFD 30 NNE BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 30 NE MLS 30 E BIL 35 NE WEY 25 SSW DLN 50 N 27U 30 NNW HLN 30 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 15 NNW SOW 65 S 4BL U17 20 NW CDC 70 NE TPH 20 SSW BAM 30 ENE BKE 25 NE PUW 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 45 WNW JMS 25 E MBG 20 NE PIR 25 WSW 9V9 40 ENE ANW 30 W OMA 45 W LWD 55 NNE SZL 30 WSW JEF 15 WSW TBN 35 ENE HRO 30 E MLC 35 NNW ADM 25 ENE SPS 45 N MWL 15 SE FTW 30 SSW SHV 25 WSW JAN 15 WNW ANB 15 NNW AHN 15 E SPA 30 NNW SOP 30 SW RIC 35 SE CHO 20 S SHD 20 NNE PSK 25 ESE 5I3 20 WNW JKL 20 NE SDF 15 SE HUF 25 NE MTO 30 NNW DNV 30 SSE CGX 15 S MKG 30 SSE HTL 15 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF KS/NRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MT... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT SPREADING ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM... CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...A BROAD SWATH OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WRN U.S. A STRONG IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW WILL LIKELY SWEEP NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE PERIOD. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS EAST FROM WRN/CNTRL MT DURING THE DAY. A MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY...THEN CREST THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ERN CO/NM DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NERN U.S... AS CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD FROM ERN GREAT LAKES...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR AND FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY/ERN NY AREA BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED EAST OF THIS AREA PERHAPS DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR MID DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ERN NY WHERE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORMING AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVE CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST INTO MORE STABLE REGIME. ...HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK LATE... LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STRONG HEATING BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN AXIS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AS INHIBITION IS OVERCOME BY HEATING THESE AREAS. CAP EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE STRONG BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH MAGNITUDE OF SFC HEATING EXPECTED...WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN CO SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM SERN CO/SERN KS TO THE NM/TX BORDER AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CO/KS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE MARGINAL WITH SWD EXTENT BUT STORMS NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HAIL AND WIND EVENTS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS ACROSS KS...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF NRN OK...OVERNIGHT AS EVENING CONVECTION MERGES AND IS SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND LIFT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. ...MT... MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 50-60KT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN MT INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FORCING WITH THE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF ACTIVITY CAN SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOIST INFLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 05:52:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 00:52:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506150603.j5F63Pi2025579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150601 SWODY2 SPC AC 150600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 10 N BIS 35 WNW HON 35 WSW OFK 15 NNE MHK 30 SW JLN 25 ESE HOT 15 SSE MLU 20 WSW POE 30 SSW LFK 45 ENE ACT 30 WNW MWL 10 NNW LBB 10 NNW TCC 25 W TAD 4FC 40 N CPR 20 WSW SHR 25 NNW COD 30 NW WEY 50 SSW 3DU 45 NNW MSO 50 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM 50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10 NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT 55 WSW AXN 45 NNE SUX 50 WNW LWD 40 WSW JEF 20 SE POF 35 ENE TUP 15 SSE SEM MGR 45 NNE AYS 25 SE RDU 30 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HOU 25 WSW CLL 20 SSW BWD 30 SSE BGS 40 SSW MAF 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MSS 30 ESE UCA 35 NNE CXY 25 WNW MRB 20 NNW BLF 50 ENE LEX 15 SSW DAY 25 SW TOL 10 SSE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SPEED MAX MOVES INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. PRIOR TO THE INFLUENCES OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY COMPONENT AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN MT WHERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS UPDRAFTS ORGANIZE AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS OF MT. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY LATE...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FORCING/SHEAR WILL EXIST TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A POTENTIAL MCS EVOLVES OVER NRN/CNTRL MT. EWD EXTENT WILL BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT INTO DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/ARKLATEX... LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR EPISODIC MCS/S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FROM LATE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF OK EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TURN SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY MID DAY AS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT VEERED LLJ IS DIRECTED TOWARD SERN OK/NERN TX. IN ADDITION...INTENSIFICATION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TOPPED THE UPPER RIDGE...MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ROUGHLY 35KT AT 6KM...COULD EASILY ALLOW REMNANTS OF MCS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OFF THE LA COAST DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING ACROSS NWRN TX SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AOA 100F AS WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ALLOWS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP ACROSS NM AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR/WEST OF CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION GIVEN CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 10K FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE ABOVE ONE INCH. WITH TIME...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER OVERNIGHT MCS TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. FARTHER NORTH...ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN KS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY FORCED...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DARROW.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 17:39:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 12:39:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506151750.j5FHoeqi030185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151748 SWODY2 SPC AC 151748 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 30 SSW BIS 30 SE PHP 35 WNW BBW 20 SW CNK 20 SW TOP 25 NNE HRO 35 NW GWO 40 NNE HEZ 50 SSE SHV 50 SE PRX 10 WSW DUA 40 E SPS 35 NW ABI 25 NNE MAF 10 N HOB 30 WNW CVS TCC 10 SSW CAO 40 SW DEN 40 N CPR 35 W SHR 50 SSE LVM 35 ENE DLN 50 SSW 3DU 35 NW MSO 90 WNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM 50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10 NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 35 NE ABR 45 NNE SUX 60 W DSM 40 SSW IRK 25 E MDH 50 ENE MKL 20 SE MEI 35 ENE DHN 55 W SAV 30 NE CRE ECG 40 WSW RIC 30 SSW SHD 40 W EKN 35 WSW HLG 50 NNW MFD 10 SE MBS 20 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S GLS 40 ESE ACT 25 SSE ABI 40 ESE MAF 30 W FST 40 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 25 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS ON THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. WHILE DIURNAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED AMIDST THE COLD CORE LOW CIRCULATION IN THE EAST...THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED STORMS WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND LOW...FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES SSEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VLY. ...PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY LATE... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLVING ACROSS KS BY LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST QPF/UVV SIGNALS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. LATEST LOW TO MID LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTS A NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT...AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST ONE SEWD-TRACKING TSTM COMPLEX...INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 FCST. MCV LIKELY RESULTING FROM MORNING MCS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS SEWD IN 30-40KT NWLY FLOW. IN FACT...NAM SUGGESTS THAT MCS/SHORT WAVE MAY PRODUCE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/MO/AR BY THURSDAY EVENING. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK...SEWD ACROSS AR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...STRONG HEATING BENEATH STOUT CAP WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NWRN TX...ACROSS WRN OK...AND INTO KS. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR HEATING AND LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION MAY BE ACROSS KS WHERE MCS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED. POST-OUTFLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO WOULD ALSO AID EROSION OF THE CAP THIS REGION. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. ONCE STORMS FORM...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...FROM ERN CO INTO KS...AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK...WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND KS COULD FURTHER SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION... AND A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER OVERNIGHT MCS TO EVOLVE FROM LATE EVENING ACTIVITY AND SPREAD SEWD INTO OK THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. PARTS OF THE PLAINS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER DEFINED ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SPEED MAX MOVING INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...AND ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD TRACK DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MT. FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NRN/CNTRL MT. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 05:52:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:52:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506160604.j5G642nM010593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160600 SWODY2 SPC AC 160559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 40 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 30 NNE JAN 40 N MSY 35 NW 7R4 45 SSE LFK 25 ENE DAL 15 W LTS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL 40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG 30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 30 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N SAV ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/OK SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN/ERN U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE KS/OK REGION...SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MT BY PEAK HEATING. IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD ERN MT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...SFC TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F. RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS AS TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40F. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. WITH TIME LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN ND ENABLING CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO A POSSIBLE LINEAR MCS BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS NERN MT/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO SERN MT/WRN SD IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO SRN CANADA. ...KS/OK...SEWD INTO LA... UNTIL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT IS MAINTAINED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN KS/OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL ENHANCE INFLOW INTO EXPANDING ELEVATED CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...REMNANTS OF LATE DAY1 MCS WILL EMERGE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY REINTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT...MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY MORNING MCS...WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF THE MCS OR THE CAUSE OF THIS CLUSTER...IT APPEARS NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALOFT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF SQUALL LINE DOES ORGANIZE. ..DARROW.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 16:56:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 11:56:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506161707.j5GH7sAW003883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161703 SWODY2 SPC AC 161702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 25 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 35 SSE LUL 25 WNW GPT 20 SSE LFT 30 NW BPT 25 ENE DAL 15 ESE CDS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG 30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL 40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV ...CONT... 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 20 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N SAV ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT TO WRN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW COAST WITH STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CA TO MT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... HEIGHTS WILL CONTIUE TO FALL ACROSS ID/MT ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW AT 41N 131W...ROTATES INLAND OVER NRN CA/NV TO THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD MOVES EWD ACROSS MT. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM DAY 1 /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO 60S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF MT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TRACK INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EFFECTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DAY 2. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MCVS TRACKING SEWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SEWD TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF LA TO GA. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS'S. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT AND ITS PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORNING MCS AS IT TRACKS SSEWD TOWARD LA/MS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FURTHER WNW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT STRONG CAP MAY PRECLUDE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM ERN CO TO THE BLACKHILLS...GIVEN MOIST SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ SUGGESTS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 17:04:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 12:04:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506161715.j5GHFnxd009467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161712 SWODY2 SPC AC 161711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 25 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 35 SSE LUL 25 WNW GPT 20 SSE LFT 30 NW BPT 25 ENE DAL 15 ESE CDS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG 30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL 40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV ...CONT... 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 20 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N SAV ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT TO WRN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW COAST WITH STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CA TO MT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS ID/MT ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW AT 41N 131W...ROTATES INLAND OVER NRN CA/NV TO THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD MOVES EWD ACROSS MT. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM DAY 1 /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO 60S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF MT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TRACK INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EFFECTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DAY 2. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MCV'S TRACKING SEWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SEWD TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF LA TO GA. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS'S. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT AND ITS PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORNING MCS AS IT TRACKS SSEWD TOWARD LA/MS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FURTHER WNW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT STRONG CAP MAY PRECLUDE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM ERN CO TO THE BLACK HILLS...GIVEN MOIST SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ SUGGESTS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 05:43:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 00:43:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506170554.j5H5sqSs006016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170550 SWODY2 SPC AC 170549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45 WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 45 SW INK CVS LIC CYS DGW VEL DPG ELY TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY OFK STJ UMN ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN PSB ABE 25 ENE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF PACIFIC COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW SUIT...REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG JET WEST OF TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN SLOW DIGGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DIGGING OF SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. SUFFICIENT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TO SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY...AS STRONG HEATING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY PEAK HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ..SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ACTIVITY MAY BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES SOUTHEAST OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...ROCKIES/PLAINS... MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO CAP MUCH OF THE PLAINS SATURDAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THOUGH THIS REGION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKENED BY INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NEAR THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE RANGING UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST /CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. IF THIS OCCURS... RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS/ DIMINISHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 17:20:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 12:20:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506171731.j5HHVS3M012685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171729 SWODY2 SPC AC 171728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45 WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 50 S BGS 70 SE LBB 25 WNW EHA CYS DGW VEL DPG ELY TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY OFK STJ UMN ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN 35 SE LBE 25 NNW ILG 20 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2. UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ON SATURDAY...WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE SUBSEQUENT SEWD TRACK OF A TROUGH FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AN MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER AR PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH. ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH 18/18Z. THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS GA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW OVER GA AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD INTO NC/VA. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF GA TO NC WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INLAND TO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...ROCKIES/PLAINS... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE MOVING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS LOCATED ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CA TO ERN MT...INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ND...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN WY. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITHIN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WY SURFACE LOW AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO SOUTHEAST MT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES ENE ACROSS ND AND NRN SD. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 05:27:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 00:27:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506180538.j5I5cHrA007736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180535 SWODY2 SPC AC 180534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO BRD HON 9V9 AIA DGW 10 W WRL 15 SSE JAC 10 W PIH 40 NW SUN BTM 10 E LWT 15 ESE GDV DIK 60 NE BIS 70 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB ORL GNV 10 NE MAI 30 S CSG SAV 35 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 60 NNE MOB 0A8 ANB GSP RDU 35 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP COT DRT 10 ESE JCT 45 SE BWD 20 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL GGG 20 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT MSP YKN 45 NW BBW 10 S LBF 15 NNE GLD 20 WSW LHX 15 SW PUB 10 WSW 4FC RWL LND 10 S MLD OWY 30 N WMC 10 SSE MHS 35 WNW MFR OLM 30 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL.... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM PACIFIC COAST TROUGH...WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR LOW. THOUGH EVOLVING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM MANITOBA INTO QUEBEC...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...BUT MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... UNCERTAINTIES ARE INCREASING CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN IT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST...AND...MODELS SUGGEST...POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH HEATING. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND SHIFT COULD ACTUALLY PROGRESS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT STRONGER CAP COULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE OROGRAPHY AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE FORCING NEAR FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO. UPPER JET STREAK NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...NEAR THE WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE/SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... COOL MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IN STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK COLD FRONT/ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA /NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...AS WILL SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR/COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA. ..KERR.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 17:26:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 12:26:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506181737.j5IHb0km016227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181735 SWODY2 SPC AC 181734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 15 E STC 30 SE BKX 50 SSE 9V9 AIA DGW 10 W WRL 50 ENE WEY 20 N BZN 10 E LWT 15 ESE GDV DIK 60 NE BIS 70 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB ORL GNV 10 NE MAI 30 S CSG SAV 35 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 60 NNE MOB 0A8 ANB GSP RDU 35 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT EAU FOD 45 NW BBW 10 S LBF 15 NNE GLD 20 WSW LHX 15 SW PUB 10 WSW 4FC RWL LND 10 S MLD OWY 30 N WMC 10 SSE MHS 30 ENE CEC 15 SW OTH ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 25 SW ROW 30 ENE ROW 50 WSW LBB 55 SSW LBB 30 S MAF 15 WNW P07 60 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OFFSHORE OF NRN CA AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH HEIGHT RISES NNWWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...AS A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM TROUGHS MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA...GLANCING MUCH OF ND AND CENTRAL/NRN MN WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES AND SWWD INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY ON DAY 2...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ESE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN-NRN MN TO SWRN SD/CENTRAL WY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AROUND 20/00Z. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO NRN MN SUNDAY MORNING. NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS THE CAP. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. DESPITE THIS FACTOR...SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS FROM NRN MN TO ND/SD. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MT. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. LLJ WILL RE-INTENSIFY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... COOL MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IN STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK COLD FRONT/ ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS SE GA/NRN FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...AS WILL SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR/COASTAL AREAS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PENINSULA. ...SWRN WA/ORE TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CA INTO ORE/ID ON SUNDAY. A 35 KT SLY MID LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO ORE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STRONGER FLOW UP TO 45-50 KT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CA TO ID. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NWD ACROSS ORE/SRN WA TO FAR WRN ID WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY...THOUGH GENERALLY MARGINAL...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OF ORE/SRN WA EWD TO FAR WRN ID. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CASCADES COMBINED WITH SLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 05:21:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 00:21:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506190532.j5J5Wdwj031252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190530 SWODY2 SPC AC 190529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3DU 35 SE FCA 35 S HVR GDV DIK 30 NNE ABR 45 NE ATY OTG YKN 35 NE ANW RAP 4BQ LVM 3DU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM HUM ESF PBF MDH DAY ZZV 45 ENE CRW PSK GSO FAY 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC GRR CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU PHX PRC GCN CNY CAG CYS BFF 25 SW GCC COD JAC SUN BOI 4LW MHS 35 NE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... UPPER RIDGE NOW BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CENTER MAY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF LARGER PACIFIC COAST TROUGH INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MODELS VARY WITH REGARD TO THIS...BUT ALL SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING/WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL PERSIST SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES... ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN IMPULSES...STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET...DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TODAY...WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY. FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT BY 12Z MONDAY...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING. UPPER FORCING WILL DIMINISH/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID DAY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED AS WELL. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA/IOWA AND NEBRASKA APPEAR MINIMAL. SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH/EAST. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL STATES MAY REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SOUTH/WEST OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY. BY PEAK HEATING...STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM NORTHWEST IOWA WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING UPPER FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT SURFACE HEATING/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET...AND SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIMINISHING. ...MONTANA... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION MONDAY. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH/EAST OF LEWISTOWN MAY OCCUR AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING...SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED PULSE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ..KERR.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 17:27:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 12:27:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506191738.j5JHcaMA025306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191737 SWODY2 SPC AC 191735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3DU 35 SE FCA 35 S HVR GDV DIK 30 NNE ABR 45 NE ATY OTG YKN 35 NE ANW RAP 4BQ LVM 3DU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM HUM ESF PBF MDH DAY ZZV 45 ENE CRW PSK GSO FAY 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC GRR CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU PHX PRC GCN CNY CAG CYS BFF 25 SW GCC COD JAC SUN BOI 4LW MHS 35 NE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM CA NWD TO WA/ORE AND THEN EWD ALONG THE NRN TIER STATES AND CANADA. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SW OVER THE ERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE... CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA/ORE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY WWD. ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA IS PROGGED TO EXTEND ACROSS NRN MN INTO SD AND THEN WNWWD INTO SRN MT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SD PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG NRN EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG/N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...WITHIN WAA ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL LLJ. MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT AND BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL STATES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DECREASE IN THE LLJ. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL MN/NRN WI. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET... WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION AS SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN WEAKENING THE CAP. CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSING INTO SD MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS UPSCALE EVOLUTION FOR ANOTHER MCS ACROSS MAINLY SD AND MOVING EWD INTO MN/NWRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...MONTANA... THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS MT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...ORE/WA... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE INTO WA ON MONDAY. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS THIS PERIOD. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SRN FL. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND ALSO BENEATH SRN STREAM JET OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 05:30:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 00:30:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506200541.j5K5fSuo008779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200539 SWODY2 SPC AC 200538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 60 NNE BIS JMS AXN 35 NE MSP LSE 35 SE DBQ BRL P35 BIE EAR MHN 10 NNW AIA 35 E 81V GDV 65 N OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CAR 3B1 MWN 30 NNW GFL UCA ELM DUJ MFD FWA SBN 40 SSE MBL HTL 20 NNE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE INL 10 SSE DLH CWA GRB TVC 25 N APN ...CONT... BOS NEL 15 N RWI 10 E ECG ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 35 NW HOU MLU GLH MSL 5I3 10 SSW HTS BMG 35 N EVV 10 N ARG 15 SE UMN EMP GCK AMA 10 S HOB 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 40 SW FHU PHX EED ELY EKO BOI 10 ESE 4LW 30 ENE 4BK 20 WSW OLM 20 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE LWR GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.... A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES HAVE FLATTENED NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE...NOW GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S./ CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WEAKENING PACIFIC COAST CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENTS UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL DIG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND AS FAR WEST AS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AREAS TO THE EAST MAY APPROACH THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT PROGRESSION SOUTH OF THE BORDER MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/UPSTATE NEW YORK AND THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... LATEST NAM AND PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE GENERATED FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...ON NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER. CONSISTENCY IN TIMING OF INITIATION OF THIS CONVECTION IS LOW. ALSO...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE IN STREAM OF FLOW AROUND HIGH CENTER...EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...OR IN STREAM EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...SUPPORT EXISTS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOR EITHER SCENARIO. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AT LEAST SUPPORTS RISK FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY WITH HEATING... AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. OTHERWISE...DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS. ..KERR.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 17:07:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 12:07:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506201717.j5KHHrjm002487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201715 SWODY2 SPC AC 201714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CLE 50 WNW CLE 30 ESE FWA 20 E CMI 25 SSE UIN 40 W BIE 15 WSW LBF 30 S CDR 35 ESE 81V 35 ENE 4BQ 15 SW MLS 15 N BIL 35 S BZN 45 WSW BTM 30 SE 3TH 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N DVL 45 SW GFK 40 NW AXN 30 NW MSP 35 SE CWA 25 SE MBL 35 NE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 35 WNW HOU 45 S TYR 35 S TXK 30 W PBF 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 15 WSW SZL 25 ENE SLN 35 SSE HLC 20 NW DDC 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 55 NW EED 35 ESE TPH 30 NW BAM 40 NW WMC SVE 20 ENE RBL 45 E ACV 45 N 4BK ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. REGENERATING STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL OSCILLATE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDING THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR REPEAT MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO LOWER MI... LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING FROM LATE DAY1 CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE STRONGLY SEWD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS FLOW TURNS MORE NLY ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS MCS MAY BE SEVERE AT 12Z...POSSIBLY REINTENSIFYING BY LATE MORNING AS IT MOVES ALONG STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS...SBCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION/COLD POOL WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE SWD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS COMPLEX COULD MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SERN NEB/SRN IA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI/WI NEAR PEAK HEATING. BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND INCREASING NWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL ENABLE UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND/NWRN OH BY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES... EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID/WRN MT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...BUT STRONGLY SHEARED. IT APPEARS CLUSTERING DOWNSTREAM OVER CNTRL/NRN MT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER HIGH PLAINS MCS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES WELL AFTER DARK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...INITIALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER DARK. ...GULF STATES... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER NLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY COOL ACROSS AL/GA INTO ERN TN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY 18Z...BEFORE SPREADING SSWWD TOWARD THE NERN GULF COAST. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED MICROBURSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 05:42:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 00:42:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506210553.j5L5r4Be007985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210548 SWODY2 SPC AC 210547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 40 NW BRD FAR JMS 50 W JMS 40 NW MBG PHP 20 N CDR 81V GCC 60 WNW 4BQ BIL BZN HLN 40 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU PHX EED 10 NE DAG BIH NFL 10 NNW OWY BOI 30 NNE CTB ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 15 WSW DLH 10 N MSP LSE JVL MIE LUK CRW EKN CXY 10 N AVP ALB MPV 10 E HUL ...CONT... 30 SSW PSX AUS ACT PRX TUL MHK LNK 35 NW GRI EAR GCK 50 SE AMA HOB 10 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MAIN ACCELERATION IS FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPSTREAM JET APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. LEAD SYSTEM IS PROGGED INTO THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS LATTER FEATURE CONTINUES TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEAD SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WHERE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...CENTER OF BROAD CENTRAL U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY MOISTENING MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES APPEARS SLIM...VERY ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURST EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE BETTER...AND FLOW WILL AID PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE WEST WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS...AND CAPE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING NORTH OF UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH...HEATING/OROGRAPHY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BREAK CAP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...FORCING TO BREAK CAP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. LATEST NAM...MORE SO THAN GFS...SUGGESTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION... TO SOUTH OF LEAD CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE...MAY LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LIFT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME CAP...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH CONSOLIDATING/EXPANDING CONVECTION SPREADING WITH FORCING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY TO FAVOR NEW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG/WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BUT PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SEEM TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK A SLIGHT RISK AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FLOW/SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA MAY SUPPORT STORMS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP NEAR/EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 17:23:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 12:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506211733.j5LHXvjL014373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211731 SWODY2 SPC AC 211730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MQT 45 ENE AUW 15 E LSE 35 ESE MKT 15 NE RWF 30 SW AXN 45 W FAR 50 WNW JMS 35 S P24 35 SE GDV 20 W MLS 75 NNE BIL 65 SW GGW 60 NNW OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 60 N NID 60 S NFL 20 N NFL 35 SE BOI 25 S S80 35 E EPH 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 30 ENE GRR 30 SSE SBN 20 NE MTO 35 NW STL 40 SSW P35 35 NE FNB 25 SE SUX FSD 10 ENE MHE 35 SE 9V9 20 W BBW 30 E GLD 25 NNW DHT 25 NNE ROW 50 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 20 SW NIR 50 S CLL 10 NNW POE JAN 50 S MSL 40 W CSV 25 W JKL 10 SE CRW MGW 20 SSE BFD 20 W ITH RUT 20 WNW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS BENEATH UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE BORDER...MOST LIKELY OVER SASKATCHEWAN. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THIS CLUSTER OF TSTMS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO NERN ND/NRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SEWD INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN STRONG VEERING PROFILES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z NAM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL MN WITH ROUGHLY 6000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS DEPICTION IS LIKELY A BIT TOO UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED GIVEN THE DEEPENING WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...A POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS SHOULD TOP THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...INITIALLY OVER NERN MT...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SWWD TOWARD NRN WY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 05:39:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 00:39:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506220550.j5M5oOTJ015938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220547 SWODY2 SPC AC 220546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC LNR OMA EAR LBF 40 NW VTN HON 50 NNE ABR DVL 65 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MFR 50 NW RDM BKE BNO 4LW TVL 10 SW SAC 55 SSE EKA 15 WNW MFR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 35 E LAS 35 W OGD MQM 40 ESE HLN MLS 40 SW Y22 BIS 15 S MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 30 N JHW 25 ESE FKL BKW 10 ESE BWG 25 N TCL 10 E LGC 10 WSW CAE 15 SSW FAY 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 30 ENE PSX AUS 45 ESE DAL HOT 10 ENE POF 35 E UIN 15 WNW P35 10 NNE CNK 25 E LBL 35 NNW CDS 45 ENE FST 30 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.... SERIES OF IMPULSES...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST EVENTUAL MERGING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE FEATURES AND UPSTREAM IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...SOMEWHERE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO ONTARIO...BUT LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MODELS INDICATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WHILE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NOW EXISTS CONCERNING ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN. WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A BETTER RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION...BEFORE SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REMAIN VEERED IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM...SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER IS MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. IF THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MINNESOTA IN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AT THIS LATITUDE...BUT STRONG HEATING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES... AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS SMALL... BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. ..KERR.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 17:34:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 12:34:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506221745.j5MHjP1D020167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221735 SWODY2 SPC AC 221734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ANJ 35 WNW IMT 40 NNE EAU 20 SE STC 30 WNW AXN 25 N FAR 60 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OTH 40 SE SLE 50 N BNO 15 SSE BNO 35 ESE 4LW 25 W RNO 50 NNW SAC 55 SSE EKA 45 ESE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE OSC 45 SE MBL 15 WSW MSN 30 N DSM 20 W BIE 45 NNE DDC 20 NE PVW 45 ENE FST 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE NIR 35 ESE CLL 15 NNW POE 50 WSW SEM 30 NE LGC 15 NE SPA 10 W RDU 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IPL 55 NNW DRA 45 WNW TWF 40 SSW 3DU 40 SSE GTF 60 NW MLS 25 WSW Y22 25 SW BIS 50 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS SRN CANADA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO NWRN MN/ERN SD BY 24/00Z. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME IS ADVECTED AHEAD OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 14-16C FROM ERN CO...NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. THIS WILL SUPPRESS WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS STRONG FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MANITOBA...WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN MN BY EARLY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT SPREAD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BORDER...HOWEVER STORM MODE MAY BE LINEAR DUE TO FORCING NEEDED FOR INITIATION. SWD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SWRN MN IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO STRONG CAP. ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE U.P. OF MI WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...FARTHER SW...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG DRYLINE FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER NRN NEB. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROUGHLY 20KT WLY FLOW ALOFT COULD ALLOW MULTICELL...POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WITHIN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER FAVOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR THE BLACK HILLS INTO NRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING DUE TO DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 05:35:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 00:35:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506230546.j5N5k4Qw016023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230543 SWODY2 SPC AC 230542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MTC SBN UIN MHK 45 SSW GLD LIC CYS DGW 40 SE SHR COD BZN LWT 30 S GDV REJ RAP 10 SSE MHN BUB SUX RST RHI 50 ENE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW P24 PIR 30 SSE 9V9 FSD 40 NNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 3B1 MWN UCA FKL FDY HUF 10 SE STL 40 SSE OJC ICT GAG CDS BGS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... CZZ 25 E RAL 40 SW DRA 10 NNW DPG 60 S BYI OWY 70 NNW WMC SVE 50 S RBL 45 N 4BK OTH YKM 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX LFK GWO HSV CHA AND 35 NW FLO GSB HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU THE MID MO VLY/CNTRL PLAINS INTO CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH...CENTERED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS CREST OF RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THIS PROCESS MAY SLOW SOME FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS ELONGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. LAST COUPLE OF GFS/NAM RUNS SEEM TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF CANADIAN SHORT WAVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SYSTEM NOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET IN BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE PROMINENT AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA...AND ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEVERE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS...BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAIL/WIND EVENTS MAY BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...LOWER MID MO VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES... LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST ANY EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER TODAY LIKELY WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY IN TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH DAY...SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO THE NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT...WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN BROKEN LINE OR SMALL STORM CLUSTERS CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN CAPPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY ALSO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MID-LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG SOUTH OF STALLING SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...CAPPING ALONG FRONT AND ABOVE MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ...LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM MONTANA INTO COLORADO... DEVELOPING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS THIS REGION APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS. ..KERR.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 17:09:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 12:09:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506231720.j5NHKL9C001935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231717 SWODY2 SPC AC 231716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE OSC 20 SSW BRL 40 NE MHK 20 SW HLC 35 NE LIC 20 NE FCL 35 E WRL 45 N COD 15 N LVM 30 WNW 3HT 15 WNW LWT 65 ENE LWT 40 E MLS 25 E PHP 15 SSW 9V9 20 WNW OTG 45 E EAU 15 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW 45 SSE SDY 20 W MBG 35 WNW HON 40 WNW RWF 30 SSE IWD 85 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HUL 10 SW MWN 10 WNW ELM 30 ESE MFD IND 40 SSW SZL ICT GAG 35 SW CDS 40 SSE BGS 40 WNW DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 E RAL 25 WSW DRA 50 S ENV 15 N ENV 30 E OWY 65 N WMC 40 NNE SVE 45 NW SVE 20 ENE MHS 20 E MFR 70 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX LFK 35 E SHV 45 SW HSV 60 ENE RMG 40 SW SOP HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA WHICH WILL SLIDE EWD TONIGHT ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING WWD TO IA/NEB AND NWWD TO SRN MT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROUGH. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF KS AND NEB WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...MN AND IA. THIS MAY ALLOW POST-FRONTAL STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ACROSS SE SD AND SRN MN. AS THE CAP WEAKENS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA INTO SRN WI AND LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BAND OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD BE IN ERN NEB AND WRN IA BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS AND COLD POOL CAN GENERATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS... AT UPPER-LEVELS....A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN WY AND CNTRL MT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INITIATE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK ASCENT ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 05:30:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 00:30:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506240541.j5O5fI2O014791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240539 SWODY2 SPC AC 240538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT FAR 20 NW MHE 25 NE VTN 15 E CDR 55 WNW CDR 60 WSW GCC 40 S BIL 45 NW 3HT 40 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 NW VCT 35 SSW TYR 30 ESE PRX 35 E FSM 50 N SGF 35 SSE OJC 20 ENE HUT 20 ESE DDC EHA 50 SW CAO 30 W 4CR 65 WNW TCS 50 SE PRC 25 ENE IGM 50 SW P38 45 ESE TPH 40 W TPH 65 NE MER 20 SSW SAC 60 S EKA ...CONT... 30 S AST 50 SW DLS 10 NE PDT 45 S S06 35 NNW CTB ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 N BRD 30 N MSP 20 SE EAU 20 WSW GRB 110 E OSC ...CONT... 20 SE NEL 50 WSW UNI 15 N BWG 30 WSW BNA 25 NW HSV 30 N GAD AND 10 E HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE WRN U.S. INTO SRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THREE DISTINCT FEATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. FIRST IS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CANADA/ WHICH WILL TEND TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN CANADA INTO THE MARITIMES. SECONDLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NWRN BC/ WHICH WILL ROUND BASE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN AB/CNTRL SK INTO MB. FINALLY...SRN STREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTENDANT TO ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG SEWD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...WHILE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER MT. SECONDARY LOW /ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN TROUGH/ WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NV INTO SRN ID...WITH TRAILING WEAK FRONT/TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER MT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG/JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INCREASING SELY FLOW WILL ENHANCE NWWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD. ...NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... PLUME OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...WEAK CAPPING COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY...HOWEVER NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AN ORGANIZED/MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ...GREAT BASIN... APPEARS LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROUNDING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP...WHICH PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...FL AND SERN COAST... CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS IN SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH HANDLING OF ELY WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT REGION DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE REFLECTION FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SYSTEM TRACK...NO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 17:13:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 12:13:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506241724.j5OHOdGt019189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241722 SWODY2 SPC AC 241721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 60 W AXN 20 NNW MHE 40 NE VTN 65 E CDR 50 WNW CDR 60 WSW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 W LWT 30 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BCE 40 NNW MLF 30 SE ENV 45 SW MLD 10 NE MLD 50 WSW BPI 45 SSW BPI 20 NNW VEL CNY 15 S 4HV 30 NNE BCE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 30 NNW VCT 45 N GGG 30 E FSM SGF 40 SSW SZL 45 SW OJC 25 NW LBL 50 SW CAO 40 WNW 4CR 75 NW TCS 50 SE PRC 25 ENE IGM 50 SW P38 45 ESE TPH 40 W TPH 65 NE MER 20 SSW SAC 60 S EKA ...CONT... 50 S AST 45 SW DLS 10 NE PDT 45 S S06 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 N BRD 30 N MSP 20 SE EAU 20 WSW GRB 110 E OSC ...CONT... 20 SE NEL 50 WSW UNI 15 E SDF 15 ESE CKV 40 NNW HSV 25 N GAD AND HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL AID STORM INITIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT BY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALSO MAKE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...UT/SW CO AND FAR SE ID... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS UT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET OVER SERN CANADA PULLS EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. NAM/GFS IDENTIFY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO LOWER MI AND THIS FEATURE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT WHERE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SHOW INVERTED V-PROFILES SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 05:21:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 00:21:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506250532.j5P5WeTj012216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250530 SWODY2 SPC AC 250529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 55 SSE DLH 35 WNW MSP 30 NW OTG 10 ESE YKN 30 W EAR 20 SW MCK 50 ESE AKO 30 SW SNY 15 SSE BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 WNW WRL 35 NE WEY BZN 20 NNE 3HT 75 ENE LWT 20 SSE GGW 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 25 ENE MGW 30 W UNI 35 SSW LUK 25 WSW LEX 25 WSW LOZ 40 WNW TRI 20 ESE SSU 40 N RIC 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 40 NW BUF 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... 25 W MFE 15 NNW VCT 55 W LFK 20 NE MKO 30 SSW JEF 25 NE IRK 45 NW LWD 50 SSW HSI 55 SSW HLC 30 WNW CVS 65 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 25 ENE IGM 35 NE MLF 25 WSW ENV 40 ENE LOL 25 NE SVE 25 E MHS 45 SW RDM 25 W PDT 20 WSW EAT 35 SE CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM WRN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND ERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...APPEARS TWO PRIMARY FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SK/MB 26/12Z WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN HUDSON BAY. SECOND...SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NV/UT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SRN MB SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL SD AND THEN INTO NRN WY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH WILL STRETCH SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO...WHILE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DIFFUSE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER ND WITHIN WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH SLY LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SERN MB/WRN ON AS LLJ AXIS MIGRATES NEWD AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG/ WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. WITH APPROACH OF GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND WY...AS WELL AS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY INTO ND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD...WRN NEB INTO ERN CO. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL OCCUR ALONG PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SERN MT/SWRN ND NEWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY ALONG LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NE ENGLAND... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE N OVER WRN/CNTRL ON. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK CAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGEST STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:19:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:19:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506251730.j5PHUfK8012522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251728 SWODY2 SPC AC 251727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 40 S STC 35 ESE LBF 40 WNW GLD 10 NNE LIC 35 E FCL 50 ESE DGW 50 SSW GCC 25 ESE COD 35 NE WEY 50 WNW 3HT 35 N LWT 20 NE GGW 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ROC 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... 25 NE ACY 25 SW MGW 25 NE LEX 10 SSW LEX 35 NW LOZ LOZ 35 E 5I3 30 NE ORF ...CONT... 65 SSE LRD 10 WNW NIR 30 W CLL 20 NW FTW 35 E OKC 30 ENE CNU 50 NNW SZL 25 W P35 25 E BIE 45 NNE RSL 35 SE LBL 45 SW LBB 50 WNW MRF ...CONT... 70 S GBN 35 SE PRC 35 W U17 30 S SLC 40 NNW DPG 40 SSE BAM 65 ENE SVE 40 SE LMT 75 NNW 4LW 25 NW PDT 10 N EAT 30 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 2 ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NEWD BEING REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS ND WITH A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE IN WRN SD. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A CAPPED AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F. AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN ND WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN WRN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 4500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KT WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING HOURS SPREADING EWD ACROSS ND...NW MN AND NRN SD. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NE CO. AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE CO AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOW MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ...NY/PA... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SRN NY/NRN PA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF. ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 05:18:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 00:18:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506260530.j5Q5UFxM016569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260528 SWODY2 SPC AC 260527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW ANJ 25 NNE MSN 25 E DSM 15 N BIE 30 N LBL 35 WNW EHA 10 SSE LHX 50 N LAR 35 ENE RIW 55 ESE WEY DLN 20 N MSO 15 SSW CTB 10 WNW DIK 45 ESE BIS 20 N FAR 10 NW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MFE 40 N HOU 30 SW LFK 30 ENE MKO 45 NE CNU 15 SW TOP 10 SE HUT 20 NW GAG 50 W AMA 55 SSW CVS 25 NW GDP 15 ENE DMN 70 NE SAD 45 WNW GUP 25 NNW 4BL 30 N GJT 30 NW CAG 40 NE RKS 25 E BPI 60 WSW BPI 40 S BYI 10 SSW OWY 70 WSW BOI 30 E PDT 15 WNW EAT 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML 20 SSW PSM 10 E BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER ND BY 27/12Z...BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER ONTARIO WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...26/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SWD ALONG BC COAST...WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WWD-MOVING CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY BE ENTRAINED INTO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT TURNS MORE NWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD THROUGH SERN SD AND THEN NWWD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN/CNTRL MT BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO STRETCH FROM TRIPLE POINT ON FRONT OVER SWRN SD SWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO NRN ROCKIES... NOCTURNAL TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN MN SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER DISTURBANCE EMERGING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN WI/CNTRL MN SWWD ALONG FRONT. PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TO THE W...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ID/WRN MT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH STORMS LIKELY INTENSIFYING AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN HALF OF MT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING WLY MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE CIRCULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB SWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED GIVEN HOT...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG TROUGH/DRYLINE. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SERN STATES INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS... FORCING FOR ASCENT E OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY FOCUS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AL/GA NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 17:32:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 12:32:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506261743.j5QHhhEs007357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261741 SWODY2 SPC AC 261739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 40 WSW OSH 45 SSW ALO 25 SE HSI 30 SSW MCK 35 E AKO 35 NE CPR 25 NW WRL 35 SSE MQM 35 SE 27U 25 SE MSO 40 S CTB 20 SE HVR 10 WNW DIK 45 ESE BIS 20 N FAR 10 NW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MFE 50 N HOU 35 W TXK 45 NE CNU 30 SE TOP 30 ESE MHK 15 SE SLN 25 SSW AMA 30 NNW GDP 15 NW ELP 30 NNW SVC 30 SSW GUP 55 E VEL 15 NE RKS 30 ESE BPI 45 E MLD 45 E OWY 60 WSW BOI 20 NNW PDT 60 NW EAT 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N BML 20 SSW PSM 10 E BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...CNTRL PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. AS THE CAP WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN SD TO CNTRL MN AND SPREAD SEWD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 70 SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM ERN SD TO CNTRL MN. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EARLY ON AND BOW STRUCTURES LATER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE. IN THIS CASE...THE BEST TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE EARLY IN THE PROCESS WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY WIND DAMAGE BY EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD INTO ERN NEB...IA AND WI OVERNIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND MT AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL CREATE HIGH-BASED STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SE US... AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ASCENT OVER A BROAD AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WOULD BE EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEFORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSE INSTABILITY TO DECREASE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 05:26:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 00:26:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506270538.j5R5cLv0022007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270536 SWODY2 SPC AC 270535 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 35 WSW RHI 35 NW DBQ 30 NNE OTM 25 S DSM 40 SE OMA LNK 15 NW GRI 30 W BBW 10 WSW CDR 15 NNW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW 55 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LCH 40 S ESF 20 WNW GLH 35 WSW UNO 35 SW SZL 25 NNE EMP 10 SSW SLN 40 NW P28 35 NE LBL 40 ESE LAA 35 N ALS 20 WSW MTJ 20 ENE PUC 30 N DPG 55 ENE BOI 50 N 63S ...CONT... 10 SSE HUL 15 SE LCI 15 W BAF 10 S JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PACIFIC NW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 27/00Z U/A ANALYSIS/ IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF AK. FARTHER E...TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD TO THE GULF COAST...WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES SITUATED N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SERN MT INTO WRN SD BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN ND TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN SD AND SRN MN...WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED FROM LOW PRESSURE SWD TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN/CNTRL KS. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A MCS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM LS/WRN UP OF MI SWD INTO IA INVOF SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN ON. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT EFFECT LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS AHEAD OF TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NWWD INTO WRN SD WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES...WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WRN SD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INVOF OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY STRONGER. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS OR BOW ECHO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND POSSIBLY NRN NEB INTO MN/NRN IA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS FORECAST ALONG/E OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:25:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:25:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506271736.j5RHaLfT017077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271734 SWODY2 SPC AC 271733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK 20 SSE BJI 30 E MLI STL 35 ESE VIH 20 WSW TBN 30 ESE OJC 20 SE FNB 40 E HSI 30 NNW BBW 30 NW VTN 40 NNW RAP 45 ENE SHR 30 NNW WRL 15 NNE JAC 35 SSW WEY 30 SSW BZN 25 N LVM 85 SSW GGW 65 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW GLS ESF 20 WNW GLH 40 S UNO 25 ENE SGF 50 SSE OJC 20 WNW ICT 45 NNE DDC 20 ENE GLD 20 ENE BFF 45 SSE DGW 35 S 4FC DRO 65 NW GUP 30 W FLG 60 ESE DAG 25 SSE NID 15 N FAT 35 NW TVL 10 SSW NFL 35 ENE EKO 40 S BYI 45 ENE BOI 55 E S80 35 SE 3TH 50 N 63S ...CONT... 40 NW EPM 15 ESE LEB 15 W BAF 10 SE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AT MID-LEVELS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES -- AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE UPPER LAKES...WHILE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEY REGIONS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR / N OF SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO PARTS OF NRN MO / WRN IL THROUGH THE DAY...AIDED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY -- ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THOUGH SEWD EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CAP...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR SEWD AS WRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...INCREASINGLY-STRONG FLOW ALOFT ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO AN ESEWD-MOVING MCS OVERNIGHT. SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG FRONT / OUTFLOWS WHICH SHOULD BE RETREATING NWD ACROSS SD THROUGH THE DAY. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES / LOWER OK / TN VALLEY REGION... MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH INVOF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH / TN VALLEYS AS WELL AS INVOF WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LIMITED / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 05:21:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 00:21:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506280532.j5S5WPGE020300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280529 SWODY2 SPC AC 280528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E APN 30 NW TOL HUF 45 WNW TBN 35 WSW P28 25 S GCK 55 SE GLD 25 NE BUB 15 SW HON 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LCH 10 NE GLH 25 NE JBR 35 NE HRO 45 ESE GAG 55 ENE ROW 35 E DMN 35 NW SVC 85 E SOW 40 NE 4SL 15 ESE CEZ 25 SSE CNY 10 ESE PUC 30 SE EVW 40 S LND 45 NW CPR 15 S SHR 50 ESE LVM 25 W HLN 30 N PUW 45 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE ALL IN GOOD IN AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES AT 29/12Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BY 30/12Z. SOME DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN HANDLING OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ENTRAIN THIS FEATURE INTO BROADER CIRCULATION OF PRIMARY TROUGH...WHEREAS THE NAM MAINTAINS IT AS MORE OF A DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE SHEARING OUT ACROSS KS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM CNTRL/ERN SD...EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER SWRN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD THROUGH KS. ...MN/IA EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ONE OR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND POSSIBLY EWD OVER PORTIONS OF MN/IA WITHIN DOWNSTREAM WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LLJ. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON OVER MN...IA AND WI. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES: 1) EMBEDDED IN ONGOING MCS/S...AND 2) ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SYSTEM COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO OR LEWP-TYPE MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIAL CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE RESULTANT NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON SYSTEM WARM SECTOR PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A MODERATE RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD NAM SOLUTION VERIFY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WOULD LEAD TO A GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED OWING TO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NEW YORK... A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TO THE S OF COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE BRIEFLY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:47:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:47:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506281758.j5SHwWxe018008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281724 SWODY2 SPC AC 281723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 45 SSE DLH 40 E AUW 35 WNW MKE 20 SW RFD 20 ENE DSM 55 WSW FOD 30 SW SPW 25 NE RWF BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ANJ 25 NE GRR 15 E CMI 45 WNW TBN 35 WSW P28 25 S GCK 40 S HLC 30 NE GRI 25 WNW FSD 30 E ABR 30 SSW GFK 10 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 50 S PBF 25 WNW ARG 35 NE HRO 45 ESE GAG 35 WSW LBB 35 NW GDP 25 NE SVC 35 WSW ONM 35 ENE 4CR 15 WSW DHT 45 SW PUB 40 NW GJT 20 NE VEL 35 WNW RWL 30 NNE RIW 35 W COD BZN 25 W HLN 30 N PUW 45 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MN...MUCH OF WI...NRN IA...AND FAR NWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO KS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE STRONG TROUGH / EVOLVING LOW MOVING EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH / LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. FURTHER WEST...MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW / FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE N CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LOW CENTER INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS SD / NEB SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NRN OK / THE OK AND TX PANHANDLE REGION. ...MID AND UPPER MS / MID MO VALLEYS... AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...STAGE IS BEING SET FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EWD INTO MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST ATTM THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ND / NRN MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS TO BE THE CASE...AIRMASS FURTHER S -- JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT -- SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CAP WEAKENS ALONG COLD FRONT...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS MN BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS IA INTO ERN NEB AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM MN SWD INTO KS...MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO MN / WI -- ALONG AXIS OF 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. ACROSS THIS REGION...INTENSE / LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF TORNADOES ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST ATTM -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN / WI AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED WITH TIME ALONG FRONT...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND FRONT STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...NEW ENGLAND... WEAK UPPER VORT CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER FEATURE CROSSING ERN QUEBEC SETTLES SWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS. ..GOSS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 05:10:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 00:10:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506290521.j5T5LsvZ022303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290519 SWODY2 SPC AC 290518 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ROC 30 NNE PKB 45 NW CSV 35 SSW DYR 30 NW FSM 30 N OKC 50 NE AMA 40 N TCC 40 ENE LVS 35 E ALS 25 W COS 25 S CYS 45 E CYS 30 SSE SNY 30 SSW GLD 20 SSE SLN 30 ENE UIN 30 NE JVL 105 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE ISN 15 SW GDV 50 SE LVM 55 WNW 27U GEG 65 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MSS 25 N UCA 15 ENE UCA 30 WSW EPM ...CONT... 15 WNW LRD 45 SE AUS 40 S GGG 25 SE PRX 25 SSW SPS 40 E ROW 35 NW ROW 15 SSE ABQ 50 SW DGW 25 NNE DGW 15 SW CDR 40 NNW IML 10 ENE MCK 35 WSW BIE 10 SW OMA 35 SSW SPW 35 W RWF 15 NNE FAR 15 NNW GFK 70 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT 30/12Z WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SEWD INTO MEAN TROUGH BASE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MN WILL DEVELOP NEWD...REACHING NERN ONTARIO BY 01/12Z. PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...AND SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS IS ANTICIPATED AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST /30/12Z/ ALONG OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS STRONGER FORCING NEWD INTO ONTARIO OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT INITIAL MCS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S/ ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG FROM PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD INTO TROUGH BASE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO. RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO KS/OK... DESPITE WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH WWD EXTENT...APPEARS STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS INTO NRN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ANAFRONT STRUCTURE SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANCE/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER TO THE W...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD TO THE RATON MESA WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH STORMS TENDING TO WEAKEN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. ..MEAD.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 17:22:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 12:22:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506291734.j5THY2vf019571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291731 SWODY2 SPC AC 291730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ROC HLG 45 NW CSV 35 SSW DYR 30 NW FSM 30 N OKC 50 NE AMA 40 N TCC 40 ENE LVS 35 E ALS 25 W COS 25 S CYS 45 E CYS 30 SSE SNY 20 NE GLD 10 S CNK 10 S OTM 10 SW MSN 90 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 25 ENE Y22 40 ENE COD 55 E PIH 20 SSW 27U 45 WSW BKE 20 NNW PUW 45 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LRD 10 N ALI 20 WNW LCH 20 NNE PRX 25 SSW SPS 20 ESE LBB 40 SSW TCC 55 SSW LVS 30 ENE SAF 20 ENE ALS 45 SW LAR 20 S 81V 25 SE RAP 25 N MHN 20 WSW EAR 30 WNW BIE 10 SW OMA 55 WSW FOD FRM 20 SW STC 50 SSW BJI 70 N DVL ...CONT... 25 W ART 30 NW ITH 30 SSW UCA 20 SW BTV 3B1 25 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / CLOSED LOW -- INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP / OCCLUDED LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN / SWRN ONTARIO / NWRN MN SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY WITH TIME. COLD FRONT EXTENDING INITIALLY FROM ERN WI / LK MI WSWWD ACROSS NWRN IL / NRN MO INTO KS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY / SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS AS FAR WWD AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THOUGH ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION / CLOUD COVER WILL INFLUENCE EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT IN SOME AREAS...OVERALL EXPECT MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT FROM LOWER MI SSWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. STORMS / SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...KS / NRN OK WWD INTO ERN CO / NERN NM... AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND S OF ENE-WSW FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS / OK / NM / THE TX PANHANDLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG / ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. WITH MODERATE /25 TO 35 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INVOF FRONT...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS -- ESPECIALLY JUST N OF BOUNDARY WHERE ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT JUST N OF FRONT WITHIN BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS / SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST / SHIFT SWD / SEWD ACROSS KS / OK AS FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SLOWLY SWD. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 05:24:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 00:24:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506300535.j5U5ZnGI025396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300533 SWODY2 SPC AC 300532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 20 SSE GON ...CONT... 35 E SBY 35 SE TRI 20 SE CSV 35 SE BWG 30 SSE SDF 45 ENE LUK 10 SSW YNG 60 NW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COS 35 NW AKO 10 ESE SNY 35 NNW IML 25 NNE GCK 10 ESE OKC 40 SW ADM 55 SW SPS 35 NNW TCC 10 SW TAD 25 ENE COS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 50 SE DVL 15 SE JMS 65 SW JMS 40 NW MBG 40 W Y22 65 NE 4BQ 45 N MLS 15 WSW GGW 75 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 15 E TPL 20 NNW HOB 20 NW ROW 35 NNE 4CR 35 S ALS 10 WSW 4FC 35 WNW LAR 50 SE WRL 25 WNW JAC 50 NNW SUN 20 E LWS 60 NE 63S ...CONT... INL 30 NNE LNK 15 S BIE 25 SW TOP 15 WSW COU 30 SSW DNV 30 SW FWA MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO SEWD INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN MT/ND... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD FROM ONTARIO/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...WITH PRIMARILY WNW FLOW REGIME FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF 01/12Z...WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER N TX INTO ERN NM. ...NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA SWWD INTO ERN OH/WV AND ERN KY. SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR E AS WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE DELMARVA FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK... AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING INVOF OF SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX NWWD INTO NERN NM AND ERN CO WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA/SRN ORE...HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE E OF INSTABILITY AXIS BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO/NERN NM AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRIMARY MECHANISMS DRIVING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEST /25-35 KTS/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SURFACE WINDS WITH AN ELY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WRN KS/TX PNHDL WITH HAIL/WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX. ...ERN MT/ND... APPEARS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN FARTHER S OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S. NONETHELESS...STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD THROUGH AREA. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...TN VALLEY/ARKLATEX SWD TO THE GULF COAST... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING SWD. PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF LARGER STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 17:24:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 12:24:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506301735.j5UHZhr9003376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301733 SWODY2 SPC AC 301732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE EFK 20 WSW EEN 25 SSE POU 25 SE JFK ...CONT... 35 E SBY CRW 10 SSE LOZ CKV 10 WSW EVV DAY 10 S CAK 25 WNW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC RTN PUB 10 S BFF CDR 30 NNE VTN BUB 30 WSW HLC 15 S GCK GAG OKC 10 SE MKO 10 ESE LIT GWO JAN MCB 15 SE ESF GGG FTW 55 SW SPS PVW TCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 15 WNW DLH 40 SSE AXN 25 ESE YKN BIE TOP TBN 10 SW MVN 25 SSW HUF 40 SE FWA 35 E TOL ...CONT... 20 S BPT 15 E TPL 20 NNW HOB 20 NW ROW ABQ 4BL 10 ENE MLF ENV WMC SVE MHS MFR 15 NNW RDM PDT 45 NW S06 100 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS THROUGH STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY...INTO QUEBEC AND AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BROADENING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND FLAT UPPER HIGH CENTERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN MEXICAN/SOUTHERN U.S. PLATEAU REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL DIG ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. ...OHIO VALLEY/ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY EASTERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGES...EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...WILL PROVIDE FOCUS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY. BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F IS EXPECTED IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. BETTER FLOW/SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER DARK...WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AIDED BY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT 12Z FRIDAY. AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BENEATH INCREASINGLY WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME...HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LACK OF BETTER FLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH SEASONABLY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE DRYING HAS OCCURRED...AND SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING HOURS...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF BETTER FORCING. ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO BETTER WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES... DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ..KERR.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 06:27:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 01:27:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506010637.j516bO20018625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010631 SWODY2 SPC AC 010631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 35 WNW AXN 45 WNW RWF 55 ESE SUX 45 SW OJC 35 SE ICT 20 SW FSI 50 SSW LTS 45 ESE PVW 10 N PVW 20 NNE EHA 25 ESE LIC 10 SSW DEN 30 NE LAR 65 WNW CDR 15 NE PHP 30 E MBG 70 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE GPT 65 SE MEI 20 SW BHM 30 ESE HSV 25 SSE RMG 20 E CSG 10 E MAI 20 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 15 ESE CNM 50 SSE RTN 25 E ALS 20 SE CEZ 45 WSW PGA 35 N LAS 35 NE TPH 50 SW OWY 20 NW BOI 45 WNW 27U 65 ENE BIL 55 SSW GGW 65 SE FCA 40 E EPH 50 NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 NE MTW 30 WSW DBQ 20 WNW UIN 20 ESE CMI 30 W DAY 30 NNW CRW 15 NE BLF 25 NNE DAN 15 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EPM 20 ENE PWM 20 SSW EEN 30 WNW ELM 25 NNW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ND AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN CANADA...AS STRONGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES. A BAND OF 50-60 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS NM AND TX. IN THE EAST...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NNEWD FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF AND FL TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ...PLAINS STATES... A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA AT 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER S... INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES NWD...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS TO TX THIS PERIOD WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN NEB ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE. A NARROW AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF WRN KS/NEB TO THE ERN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG A SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. NEW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NEB AND SWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW IN CO AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ FROM NWRN OK INTO SWRN NEB WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. FURTHER N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS FURTHER THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND VEERS TO SWLY...ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ...GULF COAST STATES... A MOISTURE LADEN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. MODERATE SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELLS. ...FL... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CENTRAL/SWRN TX... THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WEST CENTRAL TX /BETWEEN MAF AND ABI/. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 1 17:43:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 12:43:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506011753.j51Hr82l014410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011733 SWODY2 SPC AC 011732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 10 NNE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 40 SE HOB 15 WNW PVW 30 ESE DHT 30 W EHA LHX 25 WNW COS 20 NE 4FC 20 N CYS 55 E CDR 40 W 9V9 20 SSW ABR 50 ENE JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 65 ENE STC 10 NE MKT 20 WSW FOD 10 WNW STJ 40 S PNC 30 W SEP JCT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 10 SW CVS 20 WNW CAO 40 WNW TAD 20 SE CEZ 35 SW PGA 50 N LAS 30 SE U31 35 WSW OWY 65 NE BOI 35 N WEY 10 N RIW 40 S CPR 20 S RAP 25 SSW Y22 50 SW DIK 40 SSE BIL 50 NW 3HT 40 NNE 3DU 40 E EPH 50 NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 NE MTW 30 WSW DBQ 20 WNW UIN 20 ESE CMI 30 W DAY 30 NNW CRW 15 NE BLF 25 NNE DAN 15 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EPM 15 SSE AUG 20 ESE LEB 10 WSW GFL 20 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW JUST W OF BAJA IS FORECAST TO EJECT NE AND INTO NRN MEXICO OR SW TX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. THROUGH NRN GULF SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD. ...NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS OR WRN MN AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NWD INTO CANADA. SRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NEB. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST FARTHER SWD ACROSS ERN CO AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THURSDAY EVENING. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP AND EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN KS. THE DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND WRN TX. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS INTO EXTREME SRN NEB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES...MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO AND SERN WY AND SPREAD EWD. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT OVER PARTS OF SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ...SRN PLAINS... THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SWRN TX... MODELS EJECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SWRN TX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. ...FL... OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND POOR LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 06/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 06:06:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 01:06:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506020615.j526FqpB021944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020612 SWODY2 SPC AC 020611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 30 S SOP 20 W RWI 55 S RIC 25 ENE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE MAF 10 ENE MAF 10 E LBB 45 NE AMA 30 NE LAA 30 SE LIC 35 E FCL 35 SW BFF 25 WNW VTN 35 WNW BKX 30 NW MKT 10 ESE FOD 35 SSW OTM IRK 20 ESE JEF 25 SSW UNO 25 SE HOT 25 NNW SHV 55 SSW TYR 20 NNW AUS 45 SW JCT 70 SSE MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 25 WNW INK 40 SE CVS 25 E TCC 25 ESE LVS 40 WNW 4SL 45 SE PGA 35 NE LAS 65 W P38 45 WSW ELY 30 W DPG 15 SSW EVW 40 WNW RWL 35 WSW DGW 30 SSW GCC 40 WSW SHR 55 NW RIW 45 E MLD 60 S BYI 35 NNW OWY 35 SSW BKE 15 SSW EPH 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE IWD CWA 10 ESE JVL 35 SSW CGX 20 E LAF 25 SE DAY 30 S ZZV 35 ENE CRW 20 E EKN DCA 35 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 20 W BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OFF NRN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SWRN TX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL WEAKEN ON DAY 2...BUT MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD TO NERN CO...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SWD ACROSS ERN CO TO WRN TX. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY AND OZARKS... MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE INITIALIZATION WITH THIS MODEL. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN TX...AND ONE OR TWO MCS/S SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN MN. AIR MASS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NWWD TO EAST OF THE DRY LINE IN SWRN NEB/WRN KS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MID LEVEL FLOW E AND N OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX/OK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER ERN NEB/KS...AND LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. FURTHER S ACROSS OK/TX...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH SPREADS OVER THIS REGION AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL VEER TO WLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF FOUR CORNERS TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING BROAD LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS/S FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHER N ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS... BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. ...ERN NC... MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NNEWD THROUGH THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. ..PETERS.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 2 17:38:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 12:38:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506021748.j52Hm8em023954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021746 SWODY2 SPC AC 021745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 40 NNW FLO 10 WSW RDU 55 WSW ORF 15 E ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 40 SSE MAF 40 ESE LBB 40 ESE AMA 40 ENE DHT 45 SSE LHX 35 E COS 40 ENE DEN 35 WSW SNY 35 WSW MHN 40 SW 9V9 20 WSW ABR 65 NNE ATY 35 N RWF 20 ENE FOD 30 SW OTM 15 E COU 40 NNE UNO 55 NNE LIT 25 SSE HOT 40 NW SHV 60 NNE CLL 20 NE AUS 10 NE HDO 60 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE IWD CWA 10 ESE JVL 45 S SBN 40 SSW FDY 30 NW HLG 30 WSW AOO 30 W DOV 20 E SBY ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 25 WNW INK 40 SE CVS 25 E TCC 40 NNE LVS 35 NNW 4SL 70 N INW 55 SW SGU 25 W P38 10 SW ELY 25 SE DPG 35 SE EVW 40 WNW RWL 30 SSE CPR 50 NNW CPR 30 WNW WRL 45 ESE MLD 40 SSE TWF 30 WNW SUN 40 NW DLN 30 SE S06 40 WNW GEG 50 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 20 W BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN STATES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO SWRN TX FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WILL CONTINUE NE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS EXTENDING SWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH KS AND CO. CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SERN CO/SW KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN TX. ...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO NEB...AND THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF TX THROUGH OK AND KS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND WRN TX SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX INTO OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. KINEMATIC AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OTHER HIGH BASED SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. THE NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NEB. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT. ...ERN CAROLINAS... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NE THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT LIFT NEWD. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT KINEMATIC AND SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 06:01:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 01:01:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506030610.j536AqE6016916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030607 SWODY2 SPC AC 030606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LBB 20 SE PVW 50 SSW GAG 25 ESE LBL 50 WNW GCK 40 NW GLD 35 NNW IML 30 ENE MHN 10 SSW BKX 15 WSW STC 25 S DLH 20 NW IWD 25 WSW MQT 45 SSW ESC 50 NNW DNV 35 SW BLV 10 SE PGO 25 W ACT 50 ENE DRT 70 NNW DRT 50 SSE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ANJ 25 SSE OSC 20 NE DTW 20 SE FDY 45 ENE LUK 40 E LEX 25 W JKL 35 WNW HSS 20 NNE AVL 30 W CLT 15 N FAY 25 ENE GSB 30 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 20 S AUO 35 WNW BHM 50 E PBF 40 ENE TXK 40 N GGG 45 W TYR 20 NNE AUS 35 SE HDO LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 35 ESE HOB 45 E TCC 45 N TCC 15 WNW RTN 55 NNE ALS 45 E GUC 40 W CAG 40 ESE BPI 20 SW WRL 40 SSW SHR 25 WSW GCC 25 WSW PHP 35 W 9V9 50 WNW HON 20 WNW ABR 25 WSW JMS 40 W DVL 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PWM 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK NWD AND EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AS MODEST LARGE SCALE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST ATOP RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PLUME FROM TX TO MN. A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND APPROACH THE UPR MS VLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MT/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE LEADING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...MOVING FROM ERN CO TO IA DURING SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AND WARM FRONT RESULTING FROM THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN TSTMS AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS MN/WI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM IA SWWD ACROSS KS OK TO NW TX. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THOUGH THE DAY...THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...UPR MS VLY EARLY... AN MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER MN AND SWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO MO. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...FROM SRN MN/WI AREA TO ERN IA AND IL...MAY MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS INTO AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/WI INTO IL MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE DAY IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY. IF CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO BECOMES GREATER...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY WILL INCREASE. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG LATEST NAM/GFS THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM CO AND ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE PLAINS SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. NONETHELESS...45-50KT SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ATOP A CAPPED AND INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SRN NEB/KS INTO MO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY BE ADEQUATE TO ELIMINATE THE CAP...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN KS INTO NEB/IA. STORMS INITIATING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IF A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT PRODUCING TORNADOES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO REMAIN VEERED AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPR MS VLY SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LIMIT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF KS/MO/IA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK IN THE NEXT FEW OUTLOOKS IF MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A CLEARER SCENARIO OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS KS AND INTO MO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY MERGE INTO AT LEAST ONE MCS...MOST LIKELY OVER MO...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ...SRN PLAINS... DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE KS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVING INTO NRN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. INITIATION SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED BUT COULD OCCUR EITHER THROUGH STRONG SFC HEATING...OR WITH STORMS BACKBUILDING INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CNTRL OK INTO TX OVERNIGHT. SHEAR SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT STRONGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. ..CARBIN.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 3 17:29:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2005 12:29:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506031738.j53Hcvm8026690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031736 SWODY2 SPC AC 031735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E FST 35 SSE CDS 40 SSW GAG 20 E EHA 45 WNW GCK 25 S HSI OFK 45 ENE ABR 25 SSE GFK 40 SSE RRT 10 NNW ELO 40 S CMX 35 ENE GRB 20 SSE CGX 15 NE DEC 10 WSW BLV 10 S DAL 35 NW HDO 55 NNW DRT 65 E FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PNS 55 S SEM 25 SSW TCL 30 E GWO 45 E ELD 15 ESE GGG 35 NE CLL 35 N NIR 45 SSE LRD ...CONT... 30 SW P07 40 S LBB 30 S AMA 35 NNE TCC 20 ENE RTN 25 NNE ALS 25 W GUC 35 S RKS 15 ENE BPI 50 SSW COD 40 SSW SHR 60 ENE DGW 35 NNE CDR Y22 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 15 W CLE 25 NNE ZZV 25 SSW PKB 25 N BKW 15 N ROA 25 WSW RIC 15 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PWM 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER TX WILL EJECT NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MS VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NEB SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND INTO NERN NM. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR EXTREME WRN OK SWD THROUGH W TX. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE DAY AND BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL EXTEND FROM WRN IA...THROUGH CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD INTO CNTRL OK SWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... GFS AND ECMWF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE ETA TENDS TO DAMPEN THIS FEATURE OUT TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS AND WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE FARTHER NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND FARTHER EAST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WHERE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS REGION. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS... THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK. HOWEVER...A STRONGER CAP WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THIS REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED OVER KS AND POSSIBLY INTO OK. STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER OK WHERE FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT MAY BE STRONGER AND WHERE FASTER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE STRONGER DRYLINE MIXING. FARTHER SWD INTO TX...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN KS ALONG THE FRONT MAY SPREAD SEWD INTO OK OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 06:30:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 01:30:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506040640.j546eDIk015508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040638 SWODY2 SPC AC 040637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E TOL 30 W DAY 35 E OWB 40 SW CKV 20 SW MKL 10 SW HOT 25 SE DUA 35 N BWD 45 W ABI 55 SE LBB 50 E AMA 25 SE END 35 S CNU 50 SSW SZL 15 NNW COU 15 WNW UIN 30 W MLI 15 SW DBQ 50 NE ALO 35 NNE RST 55 S DLH 35 E DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 30 E BHB ...CONT... 15 ENE PSM 15 ENE EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE 7R4 40 SE ESF 25 SE SHV 35 S GGG 25 NNW AUS 25 E HDO 25 E LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 45 NE FST 30 E HOB 45 ESE TCC 35 N DHT 35 WSW HUT 20 SSW TOP 30 W P35 30 WNW DSM 20 S SUX 30 NNW OFK 30 ESE 9V9 40 NE PIR 45 ENE MBG 35 NNW JMS 70 NE DVL ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 40 NNE UCA 15 ENE TTN 25 SSE PHL 20 W WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 30 SE BIL 55 SSW COD EVW 25 ENE DPG 55 E U31 35 NW WMC 45 NNE SVE 55 SE RBL 30 WSW RBL 45 E ACV 30 NNE MHS 65 SSE RDM 45 NNW BNO 20 W BKE 25 WNW S80 45 SW S06 30 WNW S06 35 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST TO THE OZARKS AND PARTS OF OK/TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE AND SPEED WILL INCLUDE TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE LEADING WAVE WAS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO NRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS WARM SECTOR EXPANDS NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER SYSTEM/TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 44N 140W. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 120M PER 12H ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE/ID AND WRN MT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...APPARENTLY EVOLVING WITHIN MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN THE NWRN CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OVER THE FL PNHDL AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN MN INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO WI/NWRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. DIURNAL HEATING AND BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EROSION OF THE CAP AND PREFRONTAL STORM INITIATION FROM WI/MI SWWD ACROSS IND/IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FORCING AND MASS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LAKE-INDUCED BOUNDARIES COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE MESOSCALE AND STORM-SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND WIND. AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...FROM CNTRL IL/IND TO MO ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT...STORMS IN CLUSTERS OR LINES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN OVER THE LAKES...MAGNITUDE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN POTENT UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED IN TIME/COVERAGE...AS FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. ...OK/TX AND OZARKS... DEEP LAYER FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FOCUSED ALONG THIS ZONE. DESPITE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE AREA...AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW TOPPED BY 15-25KT 500MB WINDS ACROSS NW TX AND THE RED RIVER WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS OVER THESE AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST UNTIL AFTER DARK...A SMALL MCS COULD BE MAINTAINED AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES ASCENT AND INFLOW NEAR THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/ID AND WRN MT... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE UPR COLUMBIA VLY ACROSS ID AND WRN MT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEATING AHEAD OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE FRONT AS 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN DRAWBACK TO ISSUING HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLGT RISK ACROSS THE REGION IS THE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S F. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE RESULTS IN MLCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. WHILE THIS CAPE COULD EASILY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION...HAVE OPTED TO WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BEFORE INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 4 16:23:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Jun 2005 11:23:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506041633.j54GXAPE001093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041629 SWODY2 SPC AC 041628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW YNG 30 S MFD 25 N LEX 20 SSW BWG 10 NW MEM 20 SSE HOT 30 SSE PRX 20 NNE SEP 45 WNW SJT 25 S LBB 25 SE AMA 20 S END 45 N JLN 40 SSE IRK 20 ENE CID 20 NNW RST 70 NNE MSP 30 E DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 20 ENE LVM 20 SSE PIH 45 SW TWF BOI 55 SSE S06 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE HVR 30 SE BIL 55 SSW COD EVW 25 ENE DPG 55 E U31 35 NW WMC 45 NNE SVE 55 SE RBL 30 WSW RBL 45 E ACV 30 NNE MHS 65 SSE RDM 45 NNW BNO 30 NW BKE 50 NNW ALW 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S LFT 30 S ESF 25 SSW SHV 50 SW TYR 25 NNW AUS 25 E HDO 25 E LRD 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... P07 25 S INK 40 NNW HOB 35 NNE TCC 40 SSE DDC 40 W EMP 25 WSW P35 35 WNW DSM 30 SSE SUX 35 E BUB 15 NE VTN 25 SSE MBG 35 NNW JMS 60 NNE DVL ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 35 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CLM 50 NW DLS 50 NW RDM 40 N 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH ACCOMPANYING FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS WHERE IT SHOULD STALL OVER PARTS OK THROUGH W TX. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD AS NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVING INTO THE NWRN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND MAINTAIN A RATHER BROAD FETCH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. STORMS MAY ONGOING FROM DAY 1 OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS PRESENTS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST AND WHICH AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING ANY ONGOING STORMS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS ALONG OR AHEAD OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK INTO NRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. S OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...DRYLINE OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. GIVEN WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND TENDENCY FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN ROCKIES... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 05:55:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 00:55:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506050606.j5566tUP002521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050605 SWODY2 SPC AC 050604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE ISN 30 ENE MOT 15 S DVL 25 NW FAR 10 S FAR 60 W AXN 45 NNE ATY 25 W ATY 45 ENE PIR 40 NNE PHP 35 NNE RAP 15 SSE GCC 50 WSW GCC 40 W SHR 10 E BIL 65 E LWT 55 W GGW 75 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 10 NNW PSF 15 WSW POU 30 NE ABE 25 WSW ABE 10 NNE CXY 15 E AOO 30 WNW AOO 30 N LBE 20 ENE FKL 10 SSE JHW 25 NE JHW 25 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 ENE ROW 25 E TCC 35 N EHA 40 ESE GLD 15 W MCK 55 SW MHN 25 SSE AIA 25 WSW BFF 10 SW CYS 30 NW EGE 20 ENE PUC 35 NE U24 45 SSE EKO 20 ENE LOL 35 ENE SVE 25 ENE MHS 45 SE EUG 40 N PDX 45 S BLI 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 50 NNW IWD 30 SSW MTW 30 NNE BEH 15 SSE DTW ...CONT... 40 SW GLS 35 E CLL 50 NNE CLL 45 ENE ACT 35 S FTW 30 WNW SEP 40 WSW BWD 40 S SJT 10 ENE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NY INTO EXTREME WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WY AND ERN MT EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY OVER THE NEXT 24H WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM THE NRN/ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WSWWD TO THE OH VLY AND THEN TRAIL BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAN LARGE SCALE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A BAND OF DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR TO SPREAD ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PREFRONTAL AIR MASS FROM PA NWD ACROSS NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN AREA OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WY/MT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...LEE-SIDE SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NCNTRL WY AND SCNTRL MT. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE COMMON FROM THE LWR MS VLY EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OZARKS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS /SEE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC/. ...PA/NY... NAM AND NAMKF APPEAR TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NAM LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALSO APPEARING UNREASONABLY STEEP. NAMKF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR A BIT MORE REALISTIC AND MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WITH BANDS OR LINES OF PREFRONTAL STORMS INTENSIFYING AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT AND 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS FCST TO BE SITUATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF SRN PA. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS NY AND NRN PA FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF GREATER SHEAR AND FORCING TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WIND AND HAIL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD TO KY/TN AND THE OZARKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLGT RISK/HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SHEAR AND/OR FOCUS IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ...WY/MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG IS FCST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DEVELOPING LEE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN MT AND NERN WY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD/NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW...UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY FROM CELLS DEVELOPING EWD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT/LOW ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND BY EVENING. HIGH PLAINS MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ND AND PARTS OF NRN SD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 5 17:22:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Jun 2005 12:22:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506051733.j55HXVfu004399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051731 SWODY2 SPC AC 051730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE ISN 30 S DVL 20 W FAR 25 W AXN 25 NNW MKT 20 SSW FRM 35 S FSD 30 NNE 9V9 55 N PHP 35 SW REJ 30 SE CPR 50 NW RWL BPI 25 S WEY 45 W BIL 70 NE LWT 60 NE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PBG LEB ORH 25 ENE BDR 20 NE JFK 25 N SBY 25 NW RIC PSK LOZ BWG 20 SW OWB EVV 30 NNE SDF 15 N UNI 35 WNW HLG 30 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 SW DLH 15 S LSE 25 ENE DBQ 40 SSW RFD 35 SE MMO 45 NE LAF 30 NNE FWA 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 S VCT 25 N VCT LFK TXK MKO BVO SLN LBF 60 SE AIA BFF 25 NNW 4FC 30 WNW EGE U28 ELY LOL SVE MHS 30 ENE EUG OLM 35 S BLI 45 E BLI ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 30 NE ROW 30 N TCC 20 NW AMA 40 SSW CDS 40 WSW ABI 25 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OH/PA/NY INTO EXTREME WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WY/MT EAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN MN...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NERN STATES... WHILE A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN NY SWWD INTO NRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST..A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SERN MT/NERN WY MONDAY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE SD MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THOUGH OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE...WILL BE A SHARPENING WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND SEWD INTO NRN IA/IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PA/NY REGIONS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ON NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THESE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN TROUGH IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OR LINES OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE WITH ORGANIZED LINES ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. ...KY EWD INTO DELMARVA... THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN THE 20 KT RANGE...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION SO NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS/CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...WY/MT... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/LIFTING SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HAIL IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST. ...DAKOTAS INTO SWRN MN... STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT AND WY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO ND AND NRN SD DURING THE EVENING...DUE TO STRENGTHING LOW LEVEL JET NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE ESEWD JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SWRN MN AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WIND THE STORMS. SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED. ..IMY.. 06/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 06:04:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 01:04:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506060615.j566FmTY026419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060613 SWODY2 SPC AC 060612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 9V9 35 WSW 9V9 10 WNW PIR 25 SSE MBG 55 ENE MBG 45 SSW FAR 25 NE AXN 35 WNW EAU 15 NE RST 35 SSE FRM 30 NNE SUX 20 W YKN 50 SSE 9V9. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 W TVC 30 SSE MBL 30 SSE MKG 30 ESE RFD 20 NNW DBQ 40 NW DSM 15 SSW OMA 45 W BIE 25 SW HSI 30 NNE MCK 45 E SNY 35 WNW SNY 40 NW BFF 40 WSW RAP 10 NW REJ 35 NNE DIK 15 W P24 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS 15 WNW PSF 10 SSW JHW 20 W CAK 25 WSW ZZV 30 NNE CRW 20 NW SHD 25 WSW DCA 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 20 WSW 7R4 35 WNW POE 35 WSW PRX 40 NNW FTW 30 SE ABI 20 E SJT 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 15 SSW HOB 20 NW AMA 15 WSW LBL 40 SW GLD 25 SSW AKO 50 ESE VEL 20 WNW SLC 40 W TWF 40 WSW BOI 25 E BNO 30 SSE RDM 40 NW RDM 20 SSE SEA 15 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM ND/MN TO WI...PARTS OF MI...IL..IA...AND NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ATOP EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LIFTING ENEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY ONE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA. DEEP LAYER FRONT WITHIN THIS SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW AND MOVING ENEWD TO THE DAKOTAS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A LEADING IMPULSE... NOW MOVING OVER NV/ID...IS EXPECTED TO SPUR AN MCS EWD FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING AND BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE REINFORCEMENT BEHIND THIS LEADING MCS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB/SD/IA AND MN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...LARGE SCALE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL PLAINS SWD TO OK AND WEST TX. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS/SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN BUT STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGH PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...NEB/DAKOTAS TO IA/MN/WI AND MI... WHILE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING EAST FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXIST ON THE NRN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION...FROM NEB NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FUEL AN EARLY MORNING MCS OVER MN AND WI EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM...A PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM NEB NWD ACROSS SD...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF MN/IA WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PLUME OF WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM NEB SWD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONGER INHIBITION THESE AREAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. NEXT IMPULSE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER WRN NEB/SD. AS ADIABATIC ASCENT AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ACT TO OVERCOME THE CAP...RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL NEAR THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN SD INTO THE EVENING. STRENGTH OF THE CAP OVER NEB/IA LENDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO TSTM COVERAGE THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER IS STORMS CAN INITIATE. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND FORCING WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ADVANCING DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE DURING LATE EVENING AS SEVERE STORMS MERGE ACROSS THE REGION AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS MODULATED BY SYNOPTIC LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN NEB/ERN SD ACROSS MN AND NRN IA...THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUING. ..CARBIN.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 6 17:24:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 12:24:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506061735.j56HZTXK005994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061733 SWODY2 SPC AC 061732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE AIA 55 SSW PHP 15 NNE PHP MBG 35 SSW JMS FAR 40 NNE AXN 35 NNE RWF 20 NE OTG 40 N SUX 20 ENE BUB 20 E MHN 45 ENE AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 35 SW ESC 20 ESE MTW 30 SSW MKE CID 20 NNW LWD FNB SLN P28 CSM 35 WNW ABI BGS 45 SSW LBB PVW 10 ENE LBL 45 SW HLC 40 NNE GLD 35 WNW IML 25 SW BFF 25 ENE DGW 81V DIK P24 35 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS UCA 15 SSE ROC CAK 15 W ZZV 30 NNE CRW 40 S EKN CHO WAL ...CONT... 20 ENE CRP 30 NW VCT 40 S CLL 50 N HOU LFK GGG 45 ENE PRX 40 NE DUA ADM 45 SE SPS JCT 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF HOB 20 WNW AMA 25 W GCK GLD DEN 50 ESE VEL 15 SSE SLC OWY 50 SSW BNO 30 SSE RDM 30 WNW RDM SEA 15 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD...NRN NEB..WRN MN...AND SWRN ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO WRN KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLE... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ..SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE RESULTING IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS A STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN SWWD INTO SERN WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...UNTIL THE SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT AN MCS WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...HEATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE LINEAR SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. BACK TO WEST...FROM NEB NEWD INTO WRN MN...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING 70F WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AT LEAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONG LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION FROM CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO ERN ND/WRN MN ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO NEB LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHER BASED STORMS MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STRENGTHING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A FORECAST OF WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE FUELED BY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. ONCE THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...WRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK... CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA AS FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL JET IN MEXICO AND POLAR JET FROM WY INTO SD. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHARPENING DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP... A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO THE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND NOT MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER... STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND MID EVENING. ..IMY.. 06/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 06:08:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 01:08:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506070619.j576JE3j009939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070616 SWODY2 SPC AC 070615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 70 NE BGS 60 SSW GAG 40 ENE LBL 30 S GLD 30 ESE LIC 30 E DEN 25 NNW DEN 35 NW FCL 35 W BFF 10 NE AIA 20 NNE MHN 35 NNE BUB 30 ENE OLU 30 WNW OMA 50 E SUX 25 NNW FRM 35 ENE RWF 20 WSW BRD 30 SSW BJI 30 S TVF 25 WNW TVF 80 W RRT ...CONT... 55 ESE ANJ 25 ESE CGX 10 E BMI 40 SSW BLV 40 NE UNO 30 S SGF 30 W FYV 25 ENE ADM 15 SSE ADM 30 ESE SEP 45 S BWD 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE HVR 20 S GGW 35 ENE 4BQ 15 W RAP 40 N VTN 15 NNE MHE 20 E ATY 60 N ATY 40 ENE JMS 10 E DVL 60 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 10 SE PWM ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 20 NE POU 10 ESE CXY 20 SSE MRB 10 S CHO 45 E DAN 15 ESE RWI 45 SW HSE ...CONT... 25 W 7R4 20 N POE 40 N ELD 45 ESE FSM PGO 40 NW TYR 40 ENE ACT 25 ESE TPL AUS 15 W SAT 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 SE CVS 20 SSW LBL 45 ESE LAA 45 NW COS 30 NW 4FC 35 SW RWL RKS 30 E EVW 25 NE DPG 30 WSW ELY 35 NE TPH 55 N BIH 50 ESE TVL 25 N RNO 60 NW LOL 70 WNW WMC 85 E 4LW 55 SSE BNO 40 SW PDT 40 NE EPH 20 WSW 63S 35 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SEVERE MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL ARC FROM A SFC LOW OVER ND SEWD THROUGH WRN MN...THEN SWD/SWWD FROM NWRN IA INTO SWRN KS...THEN BACK WWD INTO ERN CO. THIS COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY...A POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL MCS OUTFLOW TO THE EAST ACROSS MN/WI/NRN MI...AND THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM KS TO TX WILL ALL BE FEATURES THAT RESULT IN STRONG AND SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN WY AND NERN CO COULD ALSO AID LATE DAY/EVENING TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A SMALL MCS POSSIBLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB LATE. ELSEWHERE...WRN EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WEAK FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...UPR MS VLY TO MO/KS... DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN GFS/NAM GUIDANCE AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MIDWEST MCS AND LARGER SCALE CYCLONE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...HIGHER ACCURACY IN THE LOCATION OF GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN THIS OUTLOOK. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF HIGHER TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM SRN WI...SWWD ACROSS NRN IL...MO...AND INTO TO SERN KS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. WHILE THIS CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIE BENEATH RELATIVELY MARGINAL MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25KT... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF DECAYING FRONTAL CIRCULATION/WIND SHIFT SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. ...OK/TX... ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK...SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO TX. MARGINAL FLOW/SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPENSATED FOR BY VERY STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND LIMITED LARGER SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL LIE BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY AID IN MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE EXHAUST ONCE STORMS FORM. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NERN CO TO NEB LATE... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SERN WY/NERN CO DURING THE DAY WHILE RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY...STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR DUSK WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNSET...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...AID ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN CO TO NEB THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 7 17:34:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 12:34:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506071745.j57HjHlV005671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071743 SWODY2 SPC AC 071742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 35 ENE BMI 10 S ALN 40 WNW UNO 15 S MKO 15 SSE ADM 35 S BWD 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 90 SW P07 10 NNE MAF 35 E PVW 35 W GAG 15 SSE GCK 30 SSE GLD 20 WNW LIC 15 SSW FCL 30 NNW CYS 30 WNW AIA 20 WSW VTN 35 SW YKN SUX 20 WNW SPW 25 NW RWF 40 NW AXN 35 SSW TVF 70 NNW TVF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW P24 30 SSE DIK 30 S REJ 30 WNW PHP 30 SW PIR 10 NNW HON 40 NNE ATY 45 ENE JMS 25 SSW DVL 20 WSW P24 ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 30 NNE HOU 35 S AUS 35 SSE HDO 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 30 W LBB 40 N AMA 40 WNW EHA 25 SSE PUB 30 NNE EGE 20 S RWL 40 NNE RKS 30 NNE EVW 40 N ENV 30 SSW OWY 55 SSE BNO 65 SSW PDT 30 SE EPH 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 35 WNW AUG 15 NW PSM 25 SSW ORH 30 NNE EWR 10 N PHL 25 SE NHK 20 NNW ECG 25 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OVER ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS...SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO NWRN KS AND SERN CO. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MN AND NRN WI. THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE NRN PART OF COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING WI OVERNIGHT. TRAILING PART OF FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER KS THEN LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES E OF KS LEE LOW. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH W TX...NW OK AND NWD INTO KS WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD A SHORT DISTANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE EVENING. ...UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN PART OF UPPER GREAT LAKES... MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WI EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EVOLUTION OF EARLY MCS IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ONCE SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS POTENTIAL FOCI FOR INITIATION. STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN INTO WI. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... MUCH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING... RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND THE CAP WEAKENS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO. LIMITED MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL REGIME SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 600 J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NEB OR A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NWD UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS IN THIS REGION. ..DIAL.. 06/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 06:19:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 01:19:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506080631.j586V2Dq028834@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080628 SWODY2 SPC AC 080627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FTW 30 WSW MWL 20 W BWD 25 NW JCT 70 SSW SJT 15 ENE P07 35 ESE FST 30 N BGS 40 NNW CDS 45 SW GAG 40 SE LBL 25 N LBL 40 SSW LIC 30 SE DEN 30 ESE CYS 20 NNE AIA 25 NNW VTN 20 ESE 9V9 30 NE FSD 25 NNE FRM 30 W RST 15 NNW LSE 35 SE CWA 20 SSE MTW 40 SW MKG 50 N LAF 30 NE MTO 30 NNW MDH 50 NW POF 25 NE HRO 10 SE FYV 25 WNW FSM 30 SW MLC 20 E ADM 40 N FTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BOS 35 NW EWR 30 E HGR 30 NNW RIC 30 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 25 SSE GGG 20 SSW TYR 20 ENE ACT 20 SE JCT 40 NE DRT DRT ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30 WNW MAF 25 WNW LBB 15 N AMA 40 W EHA 35 WNW RTN 55 NE 4SL 30 SE FMN 75 NW GUP 70 N INW 35 NW PRC 30 WNW EED 20 NNE DAG 15 S NID 20 W FAT 30 NE SAC 50 W RNO 15 N NFL 20 N U31 45 NW ELY 40 WSW DPG 45 SE SLC 45 SSE RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NNE RWL 40 E RIW 55 ESE JAC 35 SW JAC 40 NNE BYI 20 SSE SUN 55 WNW SUN 70 W 27U 35 SSW MSO 55 ESE FCA 50 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 35 NNE JMS 20 S BRD 55 WSW IWD 20 ENE IWD 10 NNE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CNTRL U.S. INCLUDING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MID MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WITH NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WIDE VARIETY OF SCENARIOS. THIS WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS A FUNCTION OF AT LEAST TWO PROCESSES THAT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY POOR AT DEALING WITH...1) ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AND ITS ROLE IN DRIVING FUTURE FRONTAL AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND 2) FAST MOVING AND LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND INTERACTING WITH BOTH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THE VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES/FRONTS. WITH THESE ISSUES IN MIND...THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE LATEST NCEP-SREF TSTM GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE NAMKF MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EMERGING FROM THE LARGER SCALE LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND BE SITUATED WELL NORTH OF BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL ARC FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS IA BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEB INTO NERN CO/SERN WY. WHILE THIS SHOULD BE THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE...A NUMBER OF MCS-INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE SITUATED WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IL ACROSS MO AND INTO KS. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SMALL MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB. WHILE A SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE U.P OF MI DURING THE DAY...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS IA/WI AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE TRAVELS NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH HEATING AND DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT VICINITY SERN CO/SWRN KS. FURTHERMORE...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND DRYLINE OVER TX/OK...WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD TSTM SUSTENANCE/DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR. ...MIDWEST TO LWR MI... STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS ACTIVITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL FUEL TSTM INTENSIFICATION FROM IA...ACROSS NRN IL/WI...TO LWR MI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIE BENEATH THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT /20-30KT/ AND MARGINALLY ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY ALIGN NORMAL TO THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS COULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL WAVE FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SWRN WI/NWRN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF CONVECTION REMAINS CELLULAR AND TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THESE AREAS...ENHANCED TORNADO RISK MAY ENSUE. ...ERN CO/KS/NEB... MOIST SELY/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND FRONT AS SFC HEATING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MIXING ACT TO ELIMINATE THE CAP. SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND... AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL WSWLY TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING IN EXTENSIVE MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS THE OH VLY AND SOUTHEAST. A FAST-MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS FCST TO COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ON THE WRN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RESULT MAY BE SCATTERED POTENT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NY ACROSS PARTS OF VT AND NH. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS/SOUTHEAST... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PULSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND RANDOM DOWNBURSTS. ...ERN MT TO WRN DAKOTAS... MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITHIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS MIGHT PROMOTE A FEW LOW-TOPPED HAILSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 8 17:40:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Jun 2005 12:40:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506081751.j58Hp8Vi032629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081730 SWODY2 SPC AC 081729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SPS 40 S ABI 55 N DRT 10 SE P07 40 WNW P07 50 SSW LBB 20 NNE PVW 55 NE AMA 20 NNW LBL 40 ESE LAA 40 SSW LIC 30 SE DEN 25 SSE CYS 15 ENE BFF 15 SSW 9V9 40 WSW RWF 10 SSW MSP 35 ESE EAU 40 W OSH 30 ENE JVL 20 NE MMO BMI 15 SE SPI 35 WSW STL 25 W TBN 40 NNW FYV 40 WNW MLC 35 SE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS 45 NNW HOU 10 NNW CLL 15 S TPL 60 E JCT 40 SSW JCT 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 35 NW MAF 30 WSW PVW 35 E DHT 35 WNW EHA 45 SW PUB 25 NNW CEZ 35 WNW U17 45 E MLF 15 WSW U24 15 E DPG SLC 35 NNW VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 W RWL 15 SSW LND 55 E MLD 25 SSW BYI 50 S BOI 40 WNW BOI 55 ENE BKE 50 NNE S80 35 NNW S06 35 N 63S ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SSE DVL 55 SSW BJI 25 SSW DLH IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 30 NNW HYA 25 NNE EWR 10 NNE ILG 40 SSE NHK 30 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD INTO MT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SWRN STATES. THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER KS AND THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER WRN KS. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LEE LOW IN WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN TX. ...CNTRL PLAINS AREA THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB EARLY THURSDAY. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS MAY REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NRN KS OR SRN NEB. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SHOULD RESIDE IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE FROM KS NWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NERN CO AND HELP TO ADVECT HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS INTO THAT REGION. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF KS INTO PARTS OF NEB AND EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO EWD THROUGH NRN KS AND SRN NEB AS THE CAP WEAKENS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK DRYLINE CONVERGENCE...FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. THIS MAKES THE THREAT IN THIS AREA MORE CONDITIONAL. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NERN U.S... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THIS REGION FROM THE SW. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 06:58:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 01:58:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506090709.j5979Miq002208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090703 SWODY2 SPC AC 090703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ICT 10 NW END 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40 SSE LBB 10 SW PVW 10 W AMA 30 ENE DHT 35 NE CAO 50 SSE LHX 25 N LAA GLD 55 ENE HLC 10 ENE CNK 10 WSW MHK 30 S MHK 20 SE ICT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 20 SSE AUG 10 SE LCI 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 25 ENE FLO 50 W SAV 20 SW AYS 25 NE CTY 25 SSE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 30 NW MAF 60 NNE HOB 25 N CVS 30 WNW TCC 25 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 50 W PUB 35 SE DEN 50 E SNY 30 ENE MHN 15 SW MHE 55 NW RWF 20 SSE BRD 40 SW DLH 55 SSE DLH 45 NE EAU 40 NW VOK 25 W LNR 20 SE CID 40 NNW COU 25 SE SZL 40 NNE JLN 45 SSE CNU 10 W TUL 35 WSW ADM 40 N BWD 45 SW BWD 40 WSW JCT 45 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES....WRN/NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS AND A SMALL PART OF SERN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM S TX TO THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. A SW/NE ORIENTED BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY/NRN MEXICO TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THIS BAND OF FLOW WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM KS TO MN. A LEADING IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB TO MN DURING FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER AZ/NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN OK AND WRN TX... PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WHEN COMPARED TO PRIOR MODEL RUNS. NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP-SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 45-60KT 500MB WIND MAX AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN THIS MOISTURE GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM UPSTREAM TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPENING LEE-SIDE LOW SHOULD BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF OK/KS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL JET FORCING ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT IS JUST AS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FAVORABLY POSITIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR STORM INITIATION/ORGANIZATION LATER IN THE DAY. INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID AND VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS INFLOW WILL DRIVE A VARIETY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THROUGH THE EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE MERGING/MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND MCS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LOW OVER KS/NWRN OK. DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN NAM/NAMKF MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE NAM APPEAR TO BE TOO DEEPLY MIXED/DRY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS...THE NAMKF PROFILES APPEAR MORE REALISTIC IN DEPICTING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOWER LFC OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES DO INTRODUCE A GREATER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. NONETHELESS...FOCUS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THESE FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST AND ROTATE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...UPR MIDWEST... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SFC WAVE AND BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MO VLY. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FROM NEB/IA TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. ...SWRN FL... GFS AND LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING OUTER BANDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF TD #1 MAY BRUSH SECTIONS OF SWRN FL DURING FRIDAY. A LOW PROBABILITY OF ROTATING TSTMS WITHIN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE KEYS TO TAMPA BAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 07:10:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 02:10:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506090721.j597LdB2006217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090713 SWODY2 SPC AC 090713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ICT 10 NW END 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40 SSE LBB 10 SW PVW 10 W AMA 30 ENE DHT 35 NE CAO 50 SSE LHX 25 N LAA GLD 55 ENE HLC 10 ENE CNK 10 WSW MHK 30 S MHK 20 SE ICT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 30 NW MAF 60 NNE HOB 25 N CVS 30 WNW TCC 25 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 50 W PUB 35 SE DEN 50 E SNY 30 ENE MHN 15 SW MHE 55 NW RWF 20 SSE BRD 40 SW DLH 55 SSE DLH 45 NE EAU 40 NW VOK 25 W LNR 20 SE CID 40 NNW COU 25 SE SZL 40 NNE JLN 45 SSE CNU 10 W TUL 35 WSW ADM 40 N BWD 45 SW BWD 40 WSW JCT 45 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AUG 10 SE LCI 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 25 ENE FLO 50 W SAV 20 SW AYS 25 NE CTY 25 SSE DAB ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES....WRN/NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS AND A SMALL PART OF SERN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM S TX TO THE UPR MS VLY... CORRECTED TO ADD ANCHOR POINTS TO SLGT RISK LINE ...SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONED OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST. A SW/NE ORIENTED BELT OF MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY/NRN MEXICO TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVELING WITHIN THIS BAND OF FLOW WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM KS TO MN. A LEADING IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB TO MN DURING FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER AZ/NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY...AND SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AND INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS/WRN OK AND WRN TX... PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WHEN COMPARED TO PRIOR MODEL RUNS. NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP-SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 45-60KT 500MB WIND MAX AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN THIS MOISTURE GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM UPSTREAM TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPENING LEE-SIDE LOW SHOULD BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF OK/KS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL JET FORCING ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...IT IS JUST AS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FAVORABLY POSITIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR STORM INITIATION/ORGANIZATION LATER IN THE DAY. INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN RAPID AND VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MASS INFLOW WILL DRIVE A VARIETY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THROUGH THE EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE MERGING/MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AND MCS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LOW OVER KS/NWRN OK. DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN NAM/NAMKF MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE NAM APPEAR TO BE TOO DEEPLY MIXED/DRY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS...THE NAMKF PROFILES APPEAR MORE REALISTIC IN DEPICTING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOWER LFC OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES DO INTRODUCE A GREATER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. NONETHELESS...FOCUS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG NUMEROUS MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. STORMS ALONG AND NEAR THESE FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST AND ROTATE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...UPR MIDWEST... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR SFC WAVE AND BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MO VLY. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX COULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FROM NEB/IA TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. ...SWRN FL... GFS AND LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE WERE INDICATING OUTER BANDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF TD #1 MAY BRUSH SECTIONS OF SWRN FL DURING FRIDAY. A LOW PROBABILITY OF ROTATING TSTMS WITHIN FEEDER BAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE KEYS TO TAMPA BAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 9 17:19:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2005 12:19:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506091730.j59HUiXT029418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091725 SWODY2 SPC AC 091724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW END 40 ENE CSM 25 ESE LTS 60 WSW SPS 40 WNW ABI 50 E BGS 20 NE BGS 40 SSE LBB 15 W PVW 30 W AMA 15 NNE DHT 30 WSW EHA 40 NW EHA 45 ENE LAA 40 NNW GCK 15 NNW RSL 25 WNW SLN 25 E HUT 20 SSW ICT 20 NW END. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 20 ENE OTM 50 SW IRK 40 WNW SEP 35 W JCT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 30 NNW MAF 30 NNE CVS 40 NNW TCC 35 S PUB 25 S AKO 20 SE BBW 30 NNW SUX 85 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 15 NNW CNM 50 NE 4CR 15 S SAF 20 ESE CEZ 15 SSE CNY 20 E VEL 15 NE RWL 25 W CPR 25 ENE RIW 40 N EVW 10 N SLC 15 NW U24 60 E TPH 25 SW TVL 40 ENE RBL 15 NNW LMT 35 SSW RDM 55 SE DLS 40 NNW PDT 35 SE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40 ESE SHV 15 SW TXK 20 SSE PRX 10 SSW DAL 35 E SEP 50 SE BWD 45 SE JCT 15 S COT LRD ...CONT... 15 ESE ILM 45 S FLO 25 W SAV 10 SSE AYS 30 SSW JAX 25 SSE DAB ...CONT... 35 ENE PWM 20 ENE CON 25 SW EEN 25 NE POU 35 N EWR 10 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL KS...WRN OK...THE TX PNHDL AND WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE WRN U.S. EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN WY AND SRN CA WILL BE FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORMER WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE LATTER TRANSLATES OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS TROUGH /INITIALLY OVER SWRN MN AT 10/12Z/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY EARLY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO DEEPENING...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN TX. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT EWD MIXING OF DRYLINE WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING ALONG OR JUST E OF THE TX/NM BORDER AT TIME OF PEAK HEATING. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON S OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST FROM SERN NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN KS...INCREASING TO 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS WRN OK...THE TX PNHDL AND WRN TX. EXCESSIVE MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARS TO BE IN ERROR BASED ON OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS TX...WITH NAMKF DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY FORECASTS MORE REASONABLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONDITION LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT...DRYLINE AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 30-40 KTS/ FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STORMS INITIALLY...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG MERGING/ORGANIZING MESOSCALE COLD POOLS. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH WEAK AND POORLY ORIENTED HIGH-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW WILL RAPIDLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...HIGH-PRECIPITATION STORMS. ...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA. INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG 30-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF ENVIRONMENT NEWD INTO NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. GIVEN MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 40 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. ...ME/NRN NEW ENGLAND... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL QUEBEC EWD INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN APPALACHIANS WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...SWRN FL NWD TO THE FL PNHDL/CNTRL GULF COAST... LATEST TPC FORECAST HAS CENTER OF T.S. ARLENE NEAR 19.4N AND 84.1W...WITH AN EVENTUAL POSITION OF 28.5N AND 87.5W BY 11/12Z. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG FORWARD RIGHT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY LAND FALLING RAIN BANDS OVER SWRN FL FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE FL PNHDL INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 05:53:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 00:53:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506120604.j5C64pOD017842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120602 SWODY2 SPC AC 120601 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTW 30 WNW AZO 15 WNW MIE 30 NE OWB 20 NNW MKL 20 NNE PBF 30 SE DUA 25 SSE OKC 15 W EMP 20 NNW BIE 40 NE ANW 35 N 9V9 10 S ABR 55 W AXN 60 SSW DLH 30 NE AUW MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 10 SSW MAF 25 SSW CDS 55 E AMA 15 E DHT 40 NW TAD 15 ENE ASE 15 SSE RKS 20 W JAC 15 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 55 NE BKE 30 ENE 4LW 25 WSW LMT 45 SE EUG 25 E PDX 45 WNW EAT 50 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 35 NNW ESF 10 W SHV 65 SSW TYR 40 SSE AUS 10 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/MN...SWD ACROSS IA/MO/IL INTO ERN OK/AR... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING IN REGARDS TO SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW AS IT EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN MN LATE IN THE PERIOD. CENTRAL CO SPEED MAX SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO SWRN IA BY PEAK HEATING. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO EXIT REGION ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK...BENEATH ERN PORTIONS OF OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...COLD FRONT SHOULD SURGE EWD ACROSS KS INTO WRN MO BY 14/00Z ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW. STRONG FORCING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LATE DAY1 THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POST MCS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BENEATH ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LOW INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...WITH ANOTHER STRONG ZONE OF HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF ARCING FRONT FROM OK INTO SWRN MO. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS SD/MN/IA SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG OCCLUDING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. STRONGER ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAIN WARM SECTOR FROM NERN OK INTO SERN IA/WCNTRL IL WHERE SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 3000 J/KG. THIS AXIS OF INTENSIFYING BUOYANCY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IF DAY1 CONVECTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE THIS ENVIRONMENT IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IF SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES AS FORECAST. ..DARROW.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 12 17:26:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2005 12:26:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506121737.j5CHbbbg031782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121735 SWODY2 SPC AC 121734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKE 25 NNE FWA 30 NNW DAY LUK 25 S SDF 35 W HOP 25 SSW ARG 15 WNW HOT 40 S PRX 20 E DAL 35 N FTW 40 WSW ADM 35 NE OKC 20 SW EMP 40 S BIE 30 ENE GRI 50 NNE BUB 15 ESE 9V9 35 W ATY 25 S AXN 45 NE MSP 20 W CWA 35 NE MKE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 10 SSW MAF 25 SSW CDS 55 E AMA 15 E DHT 40 NW TAD 15 ENE ASE 15 SSE RKS 25 SW JAC 35 E 27U 25 WSW MSO 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 35 WSW 7R4 35 NNW ESF 20 SSW SHV 45 WNW LFK 40 SSE AUS 10 WNW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY THEN CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD OCCLUDE OVER NEB EARLY MONDAY THEN MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWWD THROUGH NEB...KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH W TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SRN PORTION CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH OK...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM ERN KS THROUGH PART OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEYS. THIS PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE EARLY STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. WITH UPPER FLOW ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM S TO N AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...MUCH OF THE ANVIL DEBRIS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE N SIDE OF THE MCS. THIS SUGGESTS SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR TO THE S AND E OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO INTO SRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WITHIN THE ONGOING MCS MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF EARLY ACTIVITY FARTHER W FROM PARTS OF ERN KS OR WRN MO SWD INTO ERN OK AND NRN TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. FARTHER NWD NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION FROM ERN NEB...SERN SD INTO WRN IA...DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NEWD AND INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING. STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND SWD ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD INTO ERN NEB AND SPREAD EWD. COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEARER THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXIST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD...NRN IA INTO SRN MN...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE LOW IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 05:54:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 00:54:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506130605.j5D65ZSN020043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130603 SWODY2 SPC AC 130602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ROC 20 SSW ELM 15 NNE HGR 25 NNW SSU 30 NW HSS 25 ENE HSV 35 NNW MLU 30 WNW HOT 40 NE JBR 50 WSW EVV 20 NW BMG 45 SW SBN 25 N CGX 10 NW JVL 20 SSE LSE 20 WNW EAU 60 WSW IWD 25 WSW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP ABQ 40 SSE GUC 20 WNW COS 40 SE LIC 40 NNW EHA 55 NNE AMA 35 WSW CSM 55 E OKC 25 SSW HRO 30 NW POF 20 ESE SPI 35 NNW PIA 25 SSW ALO 30 ESE SPW 50 SSW AXN 25 W BJI 45 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 85 WNW MLS 35 WSW BIL 10 NNW JAC 10 W OGD 55 SE EKO 25 NW WMC 35 ESE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 WSW MHS 40 ESE EUG AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO ERN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW ACROSS MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. EVEN SO...NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AS UPPER SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT...TRANSITIONS SEWD ACROSS IND/OH. AT THE SFC...MID DAY FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL WI...ARCING SEWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE DAY1 CONVECTION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION OVERTURNING INSTABILITY...REMNANTS OF ARLENE ALLOWED TROPICAL AIRMASS TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ENABLING SFC BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER LINE SEGMENTS. FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK WILL INITIATE A BIT LATER DUE TO MORE CAPPING AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM NERN TX INTO THIS REGION YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FLOW DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND WWD INTO NCNTRL TX...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE INSTABILITY. THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 13 17:29:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 12:29:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506131740.j5DHeEdx029842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131738 SWODY2 SPC AC 131737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART 15 S ITH 15 NNE HGR 20 SW SSU HSS 35 N BHM 20 S UOX 25 W MEM 20 WSW HOP 30 SSW BMG 40 NNE LAF 40 NNW CGX 20 SSE LNR 25 SSW VOK 20 WSW CWA 40 ESE RHI 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 35 SE ELP ABQ 40 SSE GUC 20 WNW COS 40 SE LIC 40 NNW EHA 65 S LBL 30 WNW CSM 55 WNW MLC 10 WSW UNO 50 ESE VIH 35 SE UIN 20 W UIN 15 W IRK 30 W P35 45 NNE FNB 15 NNE OFK 20 NNW MHE 35 N HON 55 ENE ABR 30 E FAR 35 ESE INL ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 85 WNW MLS 35 WSW BIL 10 NNW JAC 20 WNW SLC 35 NW ELY 15 SW U31 35 ESE SVE 30 ESE RBL 45 WSW MHS 40 ESE EUG AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE TN VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS MN AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING TUESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE LWR/ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 50 KT WILL TRANSITION EWD ACROSS IND/OH DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM GREAT LAKES CYCLONE OVER LAKE MI AND ARC SEWD THROUGH LWR MI/IND...AND THEN EXTEND SSWWD TO THE LWR OH VLY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS ERN IND... OH/KY... AND THEN TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY MCS OUTFLOW....WILL DEVELOP INTO WEST/SW TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. REMAINS OF TROPICAL LOW ARLENE ARE FCST TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR FUELING TSTM CLUSTERS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE SMALL SCALE LOW. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A BAND OF STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MOVING FROM ERN WA/ORE EWD ACROSS ID AND WRN MT. ...GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY... SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND WITHIN DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER LINE SEGMENTS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... FOCUSED AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A SMALL SFC LOW MOVING SEWD FROM ERN NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON. 40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRODUCE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF INTENSE ORGANIZED STORMS. MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE QUITE STRONG ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED WARM/MARINE FRONT FROM SRN NH INTO ERN MA/RI. CELLS TRACKING ALONG THIS POTENTIAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE. AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER OUTLOOK AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ...SW TX... THIS AREA MAY ALSO REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS FRONTAL SURGE LOCATION BECOMES BETTER FCST IN LATER GUIDANCE. FRONT WILL SPREAD SWWD INTO STRONGLY CAPPED BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH INTENSE SFC HEATING...FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DUE TO LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW TOPPED BY GENERALLY WEAK WLY/NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW COULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES... A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY PACIFIC FRONT AS IT SPREADS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 14 17:25:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 12:25:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506141736.j5EHavpG025484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141734 SWODY2 SPC AC 141733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE 4CR 50 SW COS 10 NNW FCL 30 NNE SNY 30 ESE LBF 40 NNW CNK 20 NNE MHK 30 S TOP 30 NW JLN 35 SW JLN TUL 35 ESE END 30 WSW END 40 S GAG 60 NNW CDS 35 W CDS 10 SW LBB 55 N HOB 55 NE 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 10 S MPV 10 SW EEN 25 NNE BDR 25 W BDR 40 NE ABE 25 SSE AVP 30 NNW IPT 30 ENE BFD 30 NNE BUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 30 NE MLS 30 E BIL 35 NE WEY 25 SSW DLN 50 N 27U 30 NNW HLN 30 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 15 NNW SOW 65 S 4BL U17 20 NW CDC 70 NE TPH 20 SSW BAM 30 ENE BKE 25 NE PUW 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 45 WNW JMS 25 E MBG 20 NE PIR 25 WSW 9V9 40 ENE ANW 30 W OMA 45 W LWD 55 NNE SZL 30 WSW JEF 15 WSW TBN 35 ENE HRO 30 E MLC 35 NNW ADM 25 ENE SPS 45 N MWL 15 SE FTW 30 SSW SHV 25 WSW JAN 15 WNW ANB 15 NNW AHN 15 E SPA 30 NNW SOP 30 SW RIC 35 SE CHO 20 S SHD 20 NNE PSK 25 ESE 5I3 20 WNW JKL 20 NE SDF 15 SE HUF 25 NE MTO 30 NNW DNV 30 SSE CGX 15 S MKG 30 SSE HTL 15 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF KS/NRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MT... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT SPREADING ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM... CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...A BROAD SWATH OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WRN U.S. A STRONG IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW WILL LIKELY SWEEP NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE PERIOD. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS EAST FROM WRN/CNTRL MT DURING THE DAY. A MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY...THEN CREST THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ERN CO/NM DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NERN U.S... AS CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD FROM ERN GREAT LAKES...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR AND FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY/ERN NY AREA BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED EAST OF THIS AREA PERHAPS DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR MID DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ERN NY WHERE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORMING AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVE CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST INTO MORE STABLE REGIME. ...HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK LATE... LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STRONG HEATING BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN AXIS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AS INHIBITION IS OVERCOME BY HEATING THESE AREAS. CAP EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE STRONG BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH MAGNITUDE OF SFC HEATING EXPECTED...WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN CO SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM SERN CO/SERN KS TO THE NM/TX BORDER AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CO/KS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE MARGINAL WITH SWD EXTENT BUT STORMS NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HAIL AND WIND EVENTS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS ACROSS KS...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF NRN OK...OVERNIGHT AS EVENING CONVECTION MERGES AND IS SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND LIFT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. ...MT... MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 50-60KT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN MT INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FORCING WITH THE IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF ACTIVITY CAN SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOIST INFLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN.. 06/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 05:52:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 00:52:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506150603.j5F63Pi2025579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150601 SWODY2 SPC AC 150600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 10 N BIS 35 WNW HON 35 WSW OFK 15 NNE MHK 30 SW JLN 25 ESE HOT 15 SSE MLU 20 WSW POE 30 SSW LFK 45 ENE ACT 30 WNW MWL 10 NNW LBB 10 NNW TCC 25 W TAD 4FC 40 N CPR 20 WSW SHR 25 NNW COD 30 NW WEY 50 SSW 3DU 45 NNW MSO 50 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM 50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10 NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT 55 WSW AXN 45 NNE SUX 50 WNW LWD 40 WSW JEF 20 SE POF 35 ENE TUP 15 SSE SEM MGR 45 NNE AYS 25 SE RDU 30 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HOU 25 WSW CLL 20 SSW BWD 30 SSE BGS 40 SSW MAF 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MSS 30 ESE UCA 35 NNE CXY 25 WNW MRB 20 NNW BLF 50 ENE LEX 15 SSW DAY 25 SW TOL 10 SSE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SPEED MAX MOVES INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. PRIOR TO THE INFLUENCES OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY COMPONENT AT LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN MT WHERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS UPDRAFTS ORGANIZE AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS OF MT. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY LATE...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FORCING/SHEAR WILL EXIST TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A POTENTIAL MCS EVOLVES OVER NRN/CNTRL MT. EWD EXTENT WILL BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT INTO DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/ARKLATEX... LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR EPISODIC MCS/S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FROM LATE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF OK EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TURN SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY MID DAY AS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT VEERED LLJ IS DIRECTED TOWARD SERN OK/NERN TX. IN ADDITION...INTENSIFICATION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TOPPED THE UPPER RIDGE...MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ROUGHLY 35KT AT 6KM...COULD EASILY ALLOW REMNANTS OF MCS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OFF THE LA COAST DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING ACROSS NWRN TX SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AOA 100F AS WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ALLOWS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP ACROSS NM AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR/WEST OF CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION GIVEN CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 10K FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE ABOVE ONE INCH. WITH TIME...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER OVERNIGHT MCS TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. FARTHER NORTH...ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN KS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY FORCED...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DARROW.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 15 17:39:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2005 12:39:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506151750.j5FHoeqi030185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151748 SWODY2 SPC AC 151748 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 30 SSW BIS 30 SE PHP 35 WNW BBW 20 SW CNK 20 SW TOP 25 NNE HRO 35 NW GWO 40 NNE HEZ 50 SSE SHV 50 SE PRX 10 WSW DUA 40 E SPS 35 NW ABI 25 NNE MAF 10 N HOB 30 WNW CVS TCC 10 SSW CAO 40 SW DEN 40 N CPR 35 W SHR 50 SSE LVM 35 ENE DLN 50 SSW 3DU 35 NW MSO 90 WNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM 50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10 NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 35 NE ABR 45 NNE SUX 60 W DSM 40 SSW IRK 25 E MDH 50 ENE MKL 20 SE MEI 35 ENE DHN 55 W SAV 30 NE CRE ECG 40 WSW RIC 30 SSW SHD 40 W EKN 35 WSW HLG 50 NNW MFD 10 SE MBS 20 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S GLS 40 ESE ACT 25 SSE ABI 40 ESE MAF 30 W FST 40 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 25 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO THE LWR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS ON THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. WHILE DIURNAL TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED AMIDST THE COLD CORE LOW CIRCULATION IN THE EAST...THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED STORMS WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND LOW...FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES SSEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VLY. ...PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY LATE... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLVING ACROSS KS BY LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST QPF/UVV SIGNALS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. LATEST LOW TO MID LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTS A NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT...AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST ONE SEWD-TRACKING TSTM COMPLEX...INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 FCST. MCV LIKELY RESULTING FROM MORNING MCS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS SEWD IN 30-40KT NWLY FLOW. IN FACT...NAM SUGGESTS THAT MCS/SHORT WAVE MAY PRODUCE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/MO/AR BY THURSDAY EVENING. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK...SEWD ACROSS AR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...STRONG HEATING BENEATH STOUT CAP WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NWRN TX...ACROSS WRN OK...AND INTO KS. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR HEATING AND LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION MAY BE ACROSS KS WHERE MCS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED. POST-OUTFLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO WOULD ALSO AID EROSION OF THE CAP THIS REGION. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. ONCE STORMS FORM...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...FROM ERN CO INTO KS...AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK...WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND KS COULD FURTHER SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION... AND A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER OVERNIGHT MCS TO EVOLVE FROM LATE EVENING ACTIVITY AND SPREAD SEWD INTO OK THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. PARTS OF THE PLAINS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER DEFINED ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SPEED MAX MOVING INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...AND ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD TRACK DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MT. FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NRN/CNTRL MT. ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 05:52:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:52:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506160604.j5G642nM010593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160600 SWODY2 SPC AC 160559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 40 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 30 NNE JAN 40 N MSY 35 NW 7R4 45 SSE LFK 25 ENE DAL 15 W LTS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL 40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG 30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 30 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N SAV ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/OK SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN/ERN U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE KS/OK REGION...SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS... 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MT BY PEAK HEATING. IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD ERN MT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...SFC TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F. RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS AS TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40F. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. WITH TIME LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN ND ENABLING CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO A POSSIBLE LINEAR MCS BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS NERN MT/SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO SERN MT/WRN SD IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO SRN CANADA. ...KS/OK...SEWD INTO LA... UNTIL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT IS MAINTAINED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN KS/OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL ENHANCE INFLOW INTO EXPANDING ELEVATED CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...REMNANTS OF LATE DAY1 MCS WILL EMERGE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY REINTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. IN FACT...MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY MORNING MCS...WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF THE MCS OR THE CAUSE OF THIS CLUSTER...IT APPEARS NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALOFT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF SQUALL LINE DOES ORGANIZE. ..DARROW.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 16:56:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 11:56:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506161707.j5GH7sAW003883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161703 SWODY2 SPC AC 161702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 25 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 35 SSE LUL 25 WNW GPT 20 SSE LFT 30 NW BPT 25 ENE DAL 15 ESE CDS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG 30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL 40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV ...CONT... 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 20 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N SAV ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT TO WRN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW COAST WITH STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CA TO MT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... HEIGHTS WILL CONTIUE TO FALL ACROSS ID/MT ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW AT 41N 131W...ROTATES INLAND OVER NRN CA/NV TO THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD MOVES EWD ACROSS MT. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM DAY 1 /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO 60S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF MT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TRACK INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EFFECTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DAY 2. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MCVS TRACKING SEWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SEWD TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF LA TO GA. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS'S. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT AND ITS PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORNING MCS AS IT TRACKS SSEWD TOWARD LA/MS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FURTHER WNW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT STRONG CAP MAY PRECLUDE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM ERN CO TO THE BLACKHILLS...GIVEN MOIST SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ SUGGESTS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 16 17:04:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 12:04:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506161715.j5GHFnxd009467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161712 SWODY2 SPC AC 161711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ 25 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 35 SSE LUL 25 WNW GPT 20 SSE LFT 30 NW BPT 25 ENE DAL 15 ESE CDS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG 30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL 40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV ...CONT... 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 20 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N SAV ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT TO WRN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW COAST WITH STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CA TO MT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS ID/MT ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW AT 41N 131W...ROTATES INLAND OVER NRN CA/NV TO THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD MOVES EWD ACROSS MT. MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM DAY 1 /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO 60S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF MT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TRACK INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EFFECTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DAY 2. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND MCV'S TRACKING SEWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SEWD TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF LA TO GA. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS'S. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT AND ITS PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORNING MCS AS IT TRACKS SSEWD TOWARD LA/MS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FURTHER WNW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT STRONG CAP MAY PRECLUDE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM ERN CO TO THE BLACK HILLS...GIVEN MOIST SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ SUGGESTS POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 05:43:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 00:43:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506170554.j5H5sqSs006016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170550 SWODY2 SPC AC 170549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45 WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 45 SW INK CVS LIC CYS DGW VEL DPG ELY TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY OFK STJ UMN ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN PSB ABE 25 ENE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF PACIFIC COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW SUIT...REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG JET WEST OF TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN SLOW DIGGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DIGGING OF SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. SUFFICIENT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TO SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY...AS STRONG HEATING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY PEAK HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ..SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ACTIVITY MAY BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES SOUTHEAST OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...ROCKIES/PLAINS... MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO CAP MUCH OF THE PLAINS SATURDAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THOUGH THIS REGION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKENED BY INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NEAR THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE RANGING UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST /CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. IF THIS OCCURS... RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS/ DIMINISHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 17 17:20:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 12:20:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506171731.j5HHVS3M012685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171729 SWODY2 SPC AC 171728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45 WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 50 S BGS 70 SE LBB 25 WNW EHA CYS DGW VEL DPG ELY TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY OFK STJ UMN ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN 35 SE LBE 25 NNW ILG 20 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2. UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ON SATURDAY...WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE SUBSEQUENT SEWD TRACK OF A TROUGH FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AN MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER AR PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH. ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH 18/18Z. THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS GA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW OVER GA AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD INTO NC/VA. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF GA TO NC WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INLAND TO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...ROCKIES/PLAINS... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE MOVING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS LOCATED ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CA TO ERN MT...INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ND...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN WY. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITHIN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WY SURFACE LOW AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO SOUTHEAST MT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES ENE ACROSS ND AND NRN SD. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 05:27:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 00:27:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506180538.j5I5cHrA007736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180535 SWODY2 SPC AC 180534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO BRD HON 9V9 AIA DGW 10 W WRL 15 SSE JAC 10 W PIH 40 NW SUN BTM 10 E LWT 15 ESE GDV DIK 60 NE BIS 70 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB ORL GNV 10 NE MAI 30 S CSG SAV 35 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 60 NNE MOB 0A8 ANB GSP RDU 35 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP COT DRT 10 ESE JCT 45 SE BWD 20 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL GGG 20 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT MSP YKN 45 NW BBW 10 S LBF 15 NNE GLD 20 WSW LHX 15 SW PUB 10 WSW 4FC RWL LND 10 S MLD OWY 30 N WMC 10 SSE MHS 35 WNW MFR OLM 30 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL.... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM PACIFIC COAST TROUGH...WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR LOW. THOUGH EVOLVING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM MANITOBA INTO QUEBEC...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...BUT MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... UNCERTAINTIES ARE INCREASING CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN IT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST...AND...MODELS SUGGEST...POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH HEATING. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND SHIFT COULD ACTUALLY PROGRESS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT STRONGER CAP COULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE OROGRAPHY AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE FORCING NEAR FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO. UPPER JET STREAK NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...NEAR THE WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER...DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE/SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... COOL MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IN STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK COLD FRONT/ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA /NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...AS WILL SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR/COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA. ..KERR.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 18 17:26:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2005 12:26:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506181737.j5IHb0km016227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181735 SWODY2 SPC AC 181734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 15 E STC 30 SE BKX 50 SSE 9V9 AIA DGW 10 W WRL 50 ENE WEY 20 N BZN 10 E LWT 15 ESE GDV DIK 60 NE BIS 70 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB ORL GNV 10 NE MAI 30 S CSG SAV 35 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 60 NNE MOB 0A8 ANB GSP RDU 35 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT EAU FOD 45 NW BBW 10 S LBF 15 NNE GLD 20 WSW LHX 15 SW PUB 10 WSW 4FC RWL LND 10 S MLD OWY 30 N WMC 10 SSE MHS 30 ENE CEC 15 SW OTH ...CONT... 15 SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 35 NW GDP 25 SW ROW 30 ENE ROW 50 WSW LBB 55 SSW LBB 30 S MAF 15 WNW P07 60 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OFFSHORE OF NRN CA AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH HEIGHT RISES NNWWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...AS A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM TROUGHS MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA...GLANCING MUCH OF ND AND CENTRAL/NRN MN WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES AND SWWD INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY ON DAY 2...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ESE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN-NRN MN TO SWRN SD/CENTRAL WY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AROUND 20/00Z. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO NRN MN SUNDAY MORNING. NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS THE CAP. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. DESPITE THIS FACTOR...SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS FROM NRN MN TO ND/SD. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MT. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. LLJ WILL RE-INTENSIFY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... COOL MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IN STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK COLD FRONT/ ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS SE GA/NRN FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...AS WILL SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR/COASTAL AREAS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PENINSULA. ...SWRN WA/ORE TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CA INTO ORE/ID ON SUNDAY. A 35 KT SLY MID LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO ORE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STRONGER FLOW UP TO 45-50 KT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CA TO ID. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NWD ACROSS ORE/SRN WA TO FAR WRN ID WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY...THOUGH GENERALLY MARGINAL...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OF ORE/SRN WA EWD TO FAR WRN ID. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CASCADES COMBINED WITH SLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 05:21:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 00:21:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506190532.j5J5Wdwj031252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190530 SWODY2 SPC AC 190529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3DU 35 SE FCA 35 S HVR GDV DIK 30 NNE ABR 45 NE ATY OTG YKN 35 NE ANW RAP 4BQ LVM 3DU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM HUM ESF PBF MDH DAY ZZV 45 ENE CRW PSK GSO FAY 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC GRR CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU PHX PRC GCN CNY CAG CYS BFF 25 SW GCC COD JAC SUN BOI 4LW MHS 35 NE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... UPPER RIDGE NOW BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CENTER MAY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF LARGER PACIFIC COAST TROUGH INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MODELS VARY WITH REGARD TO THIS...BUT ALL SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING/WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL PERSIST SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES... ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN IMPULSES...STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET...DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TODAY...WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY. FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT BY 12Z MONDAY...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING. UPPER FORCING WILL DIMINISH/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID DAY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED AS WELL. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA/IOWA AND NEBRASKA APPEAR MINIMAL. SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH/EAST. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL STATES MAY REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SOUTH/WEST OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY. BY PEAK HEATING...STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM NORTHWEST IOWA WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING UPPER FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT SURFACE HEATING/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET...AND SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIMINISHING. ...MONTANA... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION MONDAY. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH/EAST OF LEWISTOWN MAY OCCUR AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING...SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED PULSE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ..KERR.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 19 17:27:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2005 12:27:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506191738.j5JHcaMA025306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191737 SWODY2 SPC AC 191735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3DU 35 SE FCA 35 S HVR GDV DIK 30 NNE ABR 45 NE ATY OTG YKN 35 NE ANW RAP 4BQ LVM 3DU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM HUM ESF PBF MDH DAY ZZV 45 ENE CRW PSK GSO FAY 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC GRR CGX BRL STJ RSL LBL INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU PHX PRC GCN CNY CAG CYS BFF 25 SW GCC COD JAC SUN BOI 4LW MHS 35 NE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM CA NWD TO WA/ORE AND THEN EWD ALONG THE NRN TIER STATES AND CANADA. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SW OVER THE ERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE... CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA/ORE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY WWD. ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA IS PROGGED TO EXTEND ACROSS NRN MN INTO SD AND THEN WNWWD INTO SRN MT AT 12Z MONDAY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SD PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG NRN EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG/N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...WITHIN WAA ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL LLJ. MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT AND BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL STATES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DECREASE IN THE LLJ. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL MN/NRN WI. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET... WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION AS SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN WEAKENING THE CAP. CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSING INTO SD MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS UPSCALE EVOLUTION FOR ANOTHER MCS ACROSS MAINLY SD AND MOVING EWD INTO MN/NWRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...MONTANA... THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS MT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...ORE/WA... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE INTO WA ON MONDAY. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS THIS PERIOD. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SRN FL. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND ALSO BENEATH SRN STREAM JET OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 05:30:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 00:30:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506200541.j5K5fSuo008779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200539 SWODY2 SPC AC 200538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 60 NNE BIS JMS AXN 35 NE MSP LSE 35 SE DBQ BRL P35 BIE EAR MHN 10 NNW AIA 35 E 81V GDV 65 N OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CAR 3B1 MWN 30 NNW GFL UCA ELM DUJ MFD FWA SBN 40 SSE MBL HTL 20 NNE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE INL 10 SSE DLH CWA GRB TVC 25 N APN ...CONT... BOS NEL 15 N RWI 10 E ECG ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 35 NW HOU MLU GLH MSL 5I3 10 SSW HTS BMG 35 N EVV 10 N ARG 15 SE UMN EMP GCK AMA 10 S HOB 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 40 SW FHU PHX EED ELY EKO BOI 10 ESE 4LW 30 ENE 4BK 20 WSW OLM 20 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE LWR GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.... A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES HAVE FLATTENED NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE...NOW GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S./ CANADIAN ROCKIES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WEAKENING PACIFIC COAST CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENTS UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...REACHING SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL DIG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND AS FAR WEST AS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AREAS TO THE EAST MAY APPROACH THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT PROGRESSION SOUTH OF THE BORDER MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/UPSTATE NEW YORK AND THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... LATEST NAM AND PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE GENERATED FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...ON NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER. CONSISTENCY IN TIMING OF INITIATION OF THIS CONVECTION IS LOW. ALSO...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE IN STREAM OF FLOW AROUND HIGH CENTER...EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...OR IN STREAM EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...SUPPORT EXISTS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOR EITHER SCENARIO. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AT LEAST SUPPORTS RISK FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY WITH HEATING... AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. OTHERWISE...DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS. ..KERR.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 20 17:07:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 12:07:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506201717.j5KHHrjm002487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201715 SWODY2 SPC AC 201714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CLE 50 WNW CLE 30 ESE FWA 20 E CMI 25 SSE UIN 40 W BIE 15 WSW LBF 30 S CDR 35 ESE 81V 35 ENE 4BQ 15 SW MLS 15 N BIL 35 S BZN 45 WSW BTM 30 SE 3TH 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N DVL 45 SW GFK 40 NW AXN 30 NW MSP 35 SE CWA 25 SE MBL 35 NE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 35 WNW HOU 45 S TYR 35 S TXK 30 W PBF 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 15 WSW SZL 25 ENE SLN 35 SSE HLC 20 NW DDC 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 55 NW EED 35 ESE TPH 30 NW BAM 40 NW WMC SVE 20 ENE RBL 45 E ACV 45 N 4BK ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10 W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. REGENERATING STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL OSCILLATE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDING THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR REPEAT MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO LOWER MI... LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING FROM LATE DAY1 CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE STRONGLY SEWD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS FLOW TURNS MORE NLY ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS MCS MAY BE SEVERE AT 12Z...POSSIBLY REINTENSIFYING BY LATE MORNING AS IT MOVES ALONG STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS...SBCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION/COLD POOL WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE SWD EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS COMPLEX COULD MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SERN NEB/SRN IA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MI/WI NEAR PEAK HEATING. BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND INCREASING NWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL ENABLE UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND/NWRN OH BY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES... EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID/WRN MT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...BUT STRONGLY SHEARED. IT APPEARS CLUSTERING DOWNSTREAM OVER CNTRL/NRN MT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER HIGH PLAINS MCS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES WELL AFTER DARK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...INITIALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER DARK. ...GULF STATES... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER NLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY COOL ACROSS AL/GA INTO ERN TN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY 18Z...BEFORE SPREADING SSWWD TOWARD THE NERN GULF COAST. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED MICROBURSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 05:42:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 00:42:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506210553.j5L5r4Be007985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210548 SWODY2 SPC AC 210547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 40 NW BRD FAR JMS 50 W JMS 40 NW MBG PHP 20 N CDR 81V GCC 60 WNW 4BQ BIL BZN HLN 40 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU PHX EED 10 NE DAG BIH NFL 10 NNW OWY BOI 30 NNE CTB ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 15 WSW DLH 10 N MSP LSE JVL MIE LUK CRW EKN CXY 10 N AVP ALB MPV 10 E HUL ...CONT... 30 SSW PSX AUS ACT PRX TUL MHK LNK 35 NW GRI EAR GCK 50 SE AMA HOB 10 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND FINALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MAIN ACCELERATION IS FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPSTREAM JET APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. LEAD SYSTEM IS PROGGED INTO THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS LATTER FEATURE CONTINUES TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEAD SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WHERE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...CENTER OF BROAD CENTRAL U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF RIDGE AXIS IS ALREADY MOISTENING MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES APPEARS SLIM...VERY ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURST EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE BETTER...AND FLOW WILL AID PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE WEST WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS...AND CAPE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING NORTH OF UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH...HEATING/OROGRAPHY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BREAK CAP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...FORCING TO BREAK CAP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. LATEST NAM...MORE SO THAN GFS...SUGGESTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION... TO SOUTH OF LEAD CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE...MAY LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LIFT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME CAP...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH CONSOLIDATING/EXPANDING CONVECTION SPREADING WITH FORCING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SPREADING SOUTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY TO FAVOR NEW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG/WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BUT PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SEEM TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK A SLIGHT RISK AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FLOW/SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA MAY SUPPORT STORMS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP NEAR/EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 21 17:23:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Jun 2005 12:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506211733.j5LHXvjL014373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211731 SWODY2 SPC AC 211730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MQT 45 ENE AUW 15 E LSE 35 ESE MKT 15 NE RWF 30 SW AXN 45 W FAR 50 WNW JMS 35 S P24 35 SE GDV 20 W MLS 75 NNE BIL 65 SW GGW 60 NNW OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 60 N NID 60 S NFL 20 N NFL 35 SE BOI 25 S S80 35 E EPH 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 30 ENE GRR 30 SSE SBN 20 NE MTO 35 NW STL 40 SSW P35 35 NE FNB 25 SE SUX FSD 10 ENE MHE 35 SE 9V9 20 W BBW 30 E GLD 25 NNW DHT 25 NNE ROW 50 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 20 SW NIR 50 S CLL 10 NNW POE JAN 50 S MSL 40 W CSV 25 W JKL 10 SE CRW MGW 20 SSE BFD 20 W ITH RUT 20 WNW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS BENEATH UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE BORDER...MOST LIKELY OVER SASKATCHEWAN. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THIS CLUSTER OF TSTMS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO NERN ND/NRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SEWD INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN STRONG VEERING PROFILES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z NAM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL MN WITH ROUGHLY 6000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS DEPICTION IS LIKELY A BIT TOO UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED GIVEN THE DEEPENING WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...A POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS SHOULD TOP THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...INITIALLY OVER NERN MT...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SWWD TOWARD NRN WY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 05:39:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 00:39:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506220550.j5M5oOTJ015938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220547 SWODY2 SPC AC 220546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC LNR OMA EAR LBF 40 NW VTN HON 50 NNE ABR DVL 65 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MFR 50 NW RDM BKE BNO 4LW TVL 10 SW SAC 55 SSE EKA 15 WNW MFR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 35 E LAS 35 W OGD MQM 40 ESE HLN MLS 40 SW Y22 BIS 15 S MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 30 N JHW 25 ESE FKL BKW 10 ESE BWG 25 N TCL 10 E LGC 10 WSW CAE 15 SSW FAY 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 30 ENE PSX AUS 45 ESE DAL HOT 10 ENE POF 35 E UIN 15 WNW P35 10 NNE CNK 25 E LBL 35 NNW CDS 45 ENE FST 30 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.... SERIES OF IMPULSES...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST EVENTUAL MERGING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE FEATURES AND UPSTREAM IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...SOMEWHERE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO ONTARIO...BUT LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MODELS INDICATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WHILE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NOW EXISTS CONCERNING ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN. WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A BETTER RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION...BEFORE SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REMAIN VEERED IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM...SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER IS MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. IF THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MINNESOTA IN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AT THIS LATITUDE...BUT STRONG HEATING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES... AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS SMALL... BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. ..KERR.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 22 17:34:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2005 12:34:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506221745.j5MHjP1D020167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221735 SWODY2 SPC AC 221734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ANJ 35 WNW IMT 40 NNE EAU 20 SE STC 30 WNW AXN 25 N FAR 60 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OTH 40 SE SLE 50 N BNO 15 SSE BNO 35 ESE 4LW 25 W RNO 50 NNW SAC 55 SSE EKA 45 ESE OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE OSC 45 SE MBL 15 WSW MSN 30 N DSM 20 W BIE 45 NNE DDC 20 NE PVW 45 ENE FST 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE NIR 35 ESE CLL 15 NNW POE 50 WSW SEM 30 NE LGC 15 NE SPA 10 W RDU 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IPL 55 NNW DRA 45 WNW TWF 40 SSW 3DU 40 SSE GTF 60 NW MLS 25 WSW Y22 25 SW BIS 50 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS SRN CANADA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO NWRN MN/ERN SD BY 24/00Z. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME IS ADVECTED AHEAD OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 14-16C FROM ERN CO...NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. THIS WILL SUPPRESS WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS STRONG FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MANITOBA...WITH SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN MN BY EARLY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT SPREAD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BORDER...HOWEVER STORM MODE MAY BE LINEAR DUE TO FORCING NEEDED FOR INITIATION. SWD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SWRN MN IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO STRONG CAP. ONCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE U.P. OF MI WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...FARTHER SW...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG DRYLINE FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER NRN NEB. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROUGHLY 20KT WLY FLOW ALOFT COULD ALLOW MULTICELL...POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WITHIN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER FAVOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR THE BLACK HILLS INTO NRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LACKING DUE TO DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DARROW.. 06/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 05:35:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 00:35:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506230546.j5N5k4Qw016023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230543 SWODY2 SPC AC 230542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MTC SBN UIN MHK 45 SSW GLD LIC CYS DGW 40 SE SHR COD BZN LWT 30 S GDV REJ RAP 10 SSE MHN BUB SUX RST RHI 50 ENE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW P24 PIR 30 SSE 9V9 FSD 40 NNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 3B1 MWN UCA FKL FDY HUF 10 SE STL 40 SSE OJC ICT GAG CDS BGS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... CZZ 25 E RAL 40 SW DRA 10 NNW DPG 60 S BYI OWY 70 NNW WMC SVE 50 S RBL 45 N 4BK OTH YKM 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX LFK GWO HSV CHA AND 35 NW FLO GSB HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU THE MID MO VLY/CNTRL PLAINS INTO CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH...CENTERED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS CREST OF RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THIS PROCESS MAY SLOW SOME FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS ELONGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. LAST COUPLE OF GFS/NAM RUNS SEEM TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF CANADIAN SHORT WAVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SYSTEM NOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET IN BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE PROMINENT AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA...AND ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEVERE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS...BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAIL/WIND EVENTS MAY BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...LOWER MID MO VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES... LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST ANY EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER TODAY LIKELY WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY IN TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH DAY...SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO THE NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT...WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN BROKEN LINE OR SMALL STORM CLUSTERS CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN CAPPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY ALSO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MID-LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG SOUTH OF STALLING SURFACE FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...CAPPING ALONG FRONT AND ABOVE MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ...LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM MONTANA INTO COLORADO... DEVELOPING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS THIS REGION APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS. ..KERR.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 23 17:09:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 12:09:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506231720.j5NHKL9C001935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231717 SWODY2 SPC AC 231716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE OSC 20 SSW BRL 40 NE MHK 20 SW HLC 35 NE LIC 20 NE FCL 35 E WRL 45 N COD 15 N LVM 30 WNW 3HT 15 WNW LWT 65 ENE LWT 40 E MLS 25 E PHP 15 SSW 9V9 20 WNW OTG 45 E EAU 15 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW 45 SSE SDY 20 W MBG 35 WNW HON 40 WNW RWF 30 SSE IWD 85 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HUL 10 SW MWN 10 WNW ELM 30 ESE MFD IND 40 SSW SZL ICT GAG 35 SW CDS 40 SSE BGS 40 WNW DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 E RAL 25 WSW DRA 50 S ENV 15 N ENV 30 E OWY 65 N WMC 40 NNE SVE 45 NW SVE 20 ENE MHS 20 E MFR 70 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX LFK 35 E SHV 45 SW HSV 60 ENE RMG 40 SW SOP HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA WHICH WILL SLIDE EWD TONIGHT ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING WWD TO IA/NEB AND NWWD TO SRN MT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROUGH. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF KS AND NEB WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...MN AND IA. THIS MAY ALLOW POST-FRONTAL STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ACROSS SE SD AND SRN MN. AS THE CAP WEAKENS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA INTO SRN WI AND LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BAND OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD BE IN ERN NEB AND WRN IA BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS AND COLD POOL CAN GENERATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS... AT UPPER-LEVELS....A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN WY AND CNTRL MT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INITIATE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK ASCENT ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 05:30:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 00:30:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506240541.j5O5fI2O014791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240539 SWODY2 SPC AC 240538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT FAR 20 NW MHE 25 NE VTN 15 E CDR 55 WNW CDR 60 WSW GCC 40 S BIL 45 NW 3HT 40 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 NW VCT 35 SSW TYR 30 ESE PRX 35 E FSM 50 N SGF 35 SSE OJC 20 ENE HUT 20 ESE DDC EHA 50 SW CAO 30 W 4CR 65 WNW TCS 50 SE PRC 25 ENE IGM 50 SW P38 45 ESE TPH 40 W TPH 65 NE MER 20 SSW SAC 60 S EKA ...CONT... 30 S AST 50 SW DLS 10 NE PDT 45 S S06 35 NNW CTB ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 N BRD 30 N MSP 20 SE EAU 20 WSW GRB 110 E OSC ...CONT... 20 SE NEL 50 WSW UNI 15 N BWG 30 WSW BNA 25 NW HSV 30 N GAD AND 10 E HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE WRN U.S. INTO SRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THREE DISTINCT FEATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. FIRST IS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CANADA/ WHICH WILL TEND TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN CANADA INTO THE MARITIMES. SECONDLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NWRN BC/ WHICH WILL ROUND BASE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN AB/CNTRL SK INTO MB. FINALLY...SRN STREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTENDANT TO ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG SEWD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES...WHILE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER MT. SECONDARY LOW /ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN TROUGH/ WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NV INTO SRN ID...WITH TRAILING WEAK FRONT/TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER MT SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG/JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INCREASING SELY FLOW WILL ENHANCE NWWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD. ...NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... PLUME OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...WEAK CAPPING COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY...HOWEVER NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AN ORGANIZED/MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. ...GREAT BASIN... APPEARS LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROUNDING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP...WHICH PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...FL AND SERN COAST... CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS IN SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH HANDLING OF ELY WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT REGION DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE REFLECTION FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SYSTEM TRACK...NO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 24 17:13:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 12:13:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506241724.j5OHOdGt019189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241722 SWODY2 SPC AC 241721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 60 W AXN 20 NNW MHE 40 NE VTN 65 E CDR 50 WNW CDR 60 WSW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 W LWT 30 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BCE 40 NNW MLF 30 SE ENV 45 SW MLD 10 NE MLD 50 WSW BPI 45 SSW BPI 20 NNW VEL CNY 15 S 4HV 30 NNE BCE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 30 NNW VCT 45 N GGG 30 E FSM SGF 40 SSW SZL 45 SW OJC 25 NW LBL 50 SW CAO 40 WNW 4CR 75 NW TCS 50 SE PRC 25 ENE IGM 50 SW P38 45 ESE TPH 40 W TPH 65 NE MER 20 SSW SAC 60 S EKA ...CONT... 50 S AST 45 SW DLS 10 NE PDT 45 S S06 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 N BRD 30 N MSP 20 SE EAU 20 WSW GRB 110 E OSC ...CONT... 20 SE NEL 50 WSW UNI 15 E SDF 15 ESE CKV 40 NNW HSV 25 N GAD AND HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL AID STORM INITIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT BY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL ALSO MAKE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...UT/SW CO AND FAR SE ID... A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS UT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET OVER SERN CANADA PULLS EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. NAM/GFS IDENTIFY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO LOWER MI AND THIS FEATURE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT WHERE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SHOW INVERTED V-PROFILES SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 05:21:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 00:21:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506250532.j5P5WeTj012216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250530 SWODY2 SPC AC 250529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 55 SSE DLH 35 WNW MSP 30 NW OTG 10 ESE YKN 30 W EAR 20 SW MCK 50 ESE AKO 30 SW SNY 15 SSE BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 WNW WRL 35 NE WEY BZN 20 NNE 3HT 75 ENE LWT 20 SSE GGW 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 25 ENE MGW 30 W UNI 35 SSW LUK 25 WSW LEX 25 WSW LOZ 40 WNW TRI 20 ESE SSU 40 N RIC 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 40 NW BUF 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... 25 W MFE 15 NNW VCT 55 W LFK 20 NE MKO 30 SSW JEF 25 NE IRK 45 NW LWD 50 SSW HSI 55 SSW HLC 30 WNW CVS 65 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 25 ENE IGM 35 NE MLF 25 WSW ENV 40 ENE LOL 25 NE SVE 25 E MHS 45 SW RDM 25 W PDT 20 WSW EAT 35 SE CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM WRN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND ERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD INTO THE N-CNTRL STATES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...APPEARS TWO PRIMARY FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SK/MB 26/12Z WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN HUDSON BAY. SECOND...SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NV/UT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SRN MB SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL SD AND THEN INTO NRN WY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH WILL STRETCH SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO...WHILE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DIFFUSE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER ND WITHIN WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH SLY LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SERN MB/WRN ON AS LLJ AXIS MIGRATES NEWD AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG/ WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. WITH APPROACH OF GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AND WY...AS WELL AS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY INTO ND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD...WRN NEB INTO ERN CO. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL OCCUR ALONG PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SERN MT/SWRN ND NEWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY ALONG LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NE ENGLAND... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE N OVER WRN/CNTRL ON. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK CAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGEST STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 25 17:19:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 12:19:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506251730.j5PHUfK8012522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251728 SWODY2 SPC AC 251727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 40 S STC 35 ESE LBF 40 WNW GLD 10 NNE LIC 35 E FCL 50 ESE DGW 50 SSW GCC 25 ESE COD 35 NE WEY 50 WNW 3HT 35 N LWT 20 NE GGW 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ROC 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... 25 NE ACY 25 SW MGW 25 NE LEX 10 SSW LEX 35 NW LOZ LOZ 35 E 5I3 30 NE ORF ...CONT... 65 SSE LRD 10 WNW NIR 30 W CLL 20 NW FTW 35 E OKC 30 ENE CNU 50 NNW SZL 25 W P35 25 E BIE 45 NNE RSL 35 SE LBL 45 SW LBB 50 WNW MRF ...CONT... 70 S GBN 35 SE PRC 35 W U17 30 S SLC 40 NNW DPG 40 SSE BAM 65 ENE SVE 40 SE LMT 75 NNW 4LW 25 NW PDT 10 N EAT 30 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 2 ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NEWD BEING REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS ND WITH A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE IN WRN SD. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A CAPPED AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F. AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN ND WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN WRN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 4500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KT WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING HOURS SPREADING EWD ACROSS ND...NW MN AND NRN SD. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NE CO. AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE SUNDAY...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE CO AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOW MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. ...NY/PA... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SRN NY/NRN PA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF. ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 05:18:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 00:18:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506260530.j5Q5UFxM016569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260528 SWODY2 SPC AC 260527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW ANJ 25 NNE MSN 25 E DSM 15 N BIE 30 N LBL 35 WNW EHA 10 SSE LHX 50 N LAR 35 ENE RIW 55 ESE WEY DLN 20 N MSO 15 SSW CTB 10 WNW DIK 45 ESE BIS 20 N FAR 10 NW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MFE 40 N HOU 30 SW LFK 30 ENE MKO 45 NE CNU 15 SW TOP 10 SE HUT 20 NW GAG 50 W AMA 55 SSW CVS 25 NW GDP 15 ENE DMN 70 NE SAD 45 WNW GUP 25 NNW 4BL 30 N GJT 30 NW CAG 40 NE RKS 25 E BPI 60 WSW BPI 40 S BYI 10 SSW OWY 70 WSW BOI 30 E PDT 15 WNW EAT 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML 20 SSW PSM 10 E BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER ND BY 27/12Z...BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER ONTARIO WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...26/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SWD ALONG BC COAST...WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WWD-MOVING CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY BE ENTRAINED INTO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT TURNS MORE NWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD THROUGH SERN SD AND THEN NWWD TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN/CNTRL MT BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO STRETCH FROM TRIPLE POINT ON FRONT OVER SWRN SD SWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO NRN ROCKIES... NOCTURNAL TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN MN SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER DISTURBANCE EMERGING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN WI/CNTRL MN SWWD ALONG FRONT. PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TO THE W...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ID/WRN MT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH STORMS LIKELY INTENSIFYING AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN HALF OF MT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING WLY MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE CIRCULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB SWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED GIVEN HOT...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG TROUGH/DRYLINE. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SERN STATES INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS... FORCING FOR ASCENT E OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY FOCUS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AL/GA NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 26 17:32:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 12:32:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506261743.j5QHhhEs007357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261741 SWODY2 SPC AC 261739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 40 WSW OSH 45 SSW ALO 25 SE HSI 30 SSW MCK 35 E AKO 35 NE CPR 25 NW WRL 35 SSE MQM 35 SE 27U 25 SE MSO 40 S CTB 20 SE HVR 10 WNW DIK 45 ESE BIS 20 N FAR 10 NW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MFE 50 N HOU 35 W TXK 45 NE CNU 30 SE TOP 30 ESE MHK 15 SE SLN 25 SSW AMA 30 NNW GDP 15 NW ELP 30 NNW SVC 30 SSW GUP 55 E VEL 15 NE RKS 30 ESE BPI 45 E MLD 45 E OWY 60 WSW BOI 20 NNW PDT 60 NW EAT 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N BML 20 SSW PSM 10 E BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...CNTRL PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. AS THE CAP WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN SD TO CNTRL MN AND SPREAD SEWD. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 70 SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM ERN SD TO CNTRL MN. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EARLY ON AND BOW STRUCTURES LATER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE. IN THIS CASE...THE BEST TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE EARLY IN THE PROCESS WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY WIND DAMAGE BY EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD INTO ERN NEB...IA AND WI OVERNIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND MT AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL CREATE HIGH-BASED STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SE US... AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ASCENT OVER A BROAD AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WOULD BE EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEFORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSE INSTABILITY TO DECREASE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 05:26:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 00:26:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506270538.j5R5cLv0022007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270536 SWODY2 SPC AC 270535 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 35 WSW RHI 35 NW DBQ 30 NNE OTM 25 S DSM 40 SE OMA LNK 15 NW GRI 30 W BBW 10 WSW CDR 15 NNW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW 55 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LCH 40 S ESF 20 WNW GLH 35 WSW UNO 35 SW SZL 25 NNE EMP 10 SSW SLN 40 NW P28 35 NE LBL 40 ESE LAA 35 N ALS 20 WSW MTJ 20 ENE PUC 30 N DPG 55 ENE BOI 50 N 63S ...CONT... 10 SSE HUL 15 SE LCI 15 W BAF 10 S JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PACIFIC NW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 27/00Z U/A ANALYSIS/ IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF AK. FARTHER E...TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD TO THE GULF COAST...WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES SITUATED N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SERN MT INTO WRN SD BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN ND TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN SD AND SRN MN...WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED FROM LOW PRESSURE SWD TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN/CNTRL KS. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A MCS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM LS/WRN UP OF MI SWD INTO IA INVOF SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN ON. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT EFFECT LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS AHEAD OF TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NWWD INTO WRN SD WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES...WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WRN SD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INVOF OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY STRONGER. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS OR BOW ECHO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND POSSIBLY NRN NEB INTO MN/NRN IA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS FORECAST ALONG/E OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 27 17:25:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 12:25:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506271736.j5RHaLfT017077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271734 SWODY2 SPC AC 271733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK 20 SSE BJI 30 E MLI STL 35 ESE VIH 20 WSW TBN 30 ESE OJC 20 SE FNB 40 E HSI 30 NNW BBW 30 NW VTN 40 NNW RAP 45 ENE SHR 30 NNW WRL 15 NNE JAC 35 SSW WEY 30 SSW BZN 25 N LVM 85 SSW GGW 65 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW GLS ESF 20 WNW GLH 40 S UNO 25 ENE SGF 50 SSE OJC 20 WNW ICT 45 NNE DDC 20 ENE GLD 20 ENE BFF 45 SSE DGW 35 S 4FC DRO 65 NW GUP 30 W FLG 60 ESE DAG 25 SSE NID 15 N FAT 35 NW TVL 10 SSW NFL 35 ENE EKO 40 S BYI 45 ENE BOI 55 E S80 35 SE 3TH 50 N 63S ...CONT... 40 NW EPM 15 ESE LEB 15 W BAF 10 SE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AT MID-LEVELS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES -- AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE UPPER LAKES...WHILE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEY REGIONS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR / N OF SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO PARTS OF NRN MO / WRN IL THROUGH THE DAY...AIDED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY -- ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THOUGH SEWD EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CAP...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR SEWD AS WRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...INCREASINGLY-STRONG FLOW ALOFT ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO AN ESEWD-MOVING MCS OVERNIGHT. SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG FRONT / OUTFLOWS WHICH SHOULD BE RETREATING NWD ACROSS SD THROUGH THE DAY. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES / LOWER OK / TN VALLEY REGION... MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH INVOF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH / TN VALLEYS AS WELL AS INVOF WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LIMITED / LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 06/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 05:21:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 00:21:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506280532.j5S5WPGE020300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280529 SWODY2 SPC AC 280528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E APN 30 NW TOL HUF 45 WNW TBN 35 WSW P28 25 S GCK 55 SE GLD 25 NE BUB 15 SW HON 65 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LCH 10 NE GLH 25 NE JBR 35 NE HRO 45 ESE GAG 55 ENE ROW 35 E DMN 35 NW SVC 85 E SOW 40 NE 4SL 15 ESE CEZ 25 SSE CNY 10 ESE PUC 30 SE EVW 40 S LND 45 NW CPR 15 S SHR 50 ESE LVM 25 W HLN 30 N PUW 45 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE ALL IN GOOD IN AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES AT 29/12Z INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BY 30/12Z. SOME DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN HANDLING OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ENTRAIN THIS FEATURE INTO BROADER CIRCULATION OF PRIMARY TROUGH...WHEREAS THE NAM MAINTAINS IT AS MORE OF A DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE SHEARING OUT ACROSS KS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM CNTRL/ERN SD...EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER SWRN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD THROUGH KS. ...MN/IA EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ONE OR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND POSSIBLY EWD OVER PORTIONS OF MN/IA WITHIN DOWNSTREAM WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LLJ. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON OVER MN...IA AND WI. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES: 1) EMBEDDED IN ONGOING MCS/S...AND 2) ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SYSTEM COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO OR LEWP-TYPE MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIAL CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE RESULTANT NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON SYSTEM WARM SECTOR PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A MODERATE RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD NAM SOLUTION VERIFY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WOULD LEAD TO A GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED OWING TO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NEW YORK... A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TO THE S OF COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE BRIEFLY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 28 17:47:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 12:47:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506281758.j5SHwWxe018008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281724 SWODY2 SPC AC 281723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 45 SSE DLH 40 E AUW 35 WNW MKE 20 SW RFD 20 ENE DSM 55 WSW FOD 30 SW SPW 25 NE RWF BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ANJ 25 NE GRR 15 E CMI 45 WNW TBN 35 WSW P28 25 S GCK 40 S HLC 30 NE GRI 25 WNW FSD 30 E ABR 30 SSW GFK 10 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 50 S PBF 25 WNW ARG 35 NE HRO 45 ESE GAG 35 WSW LBB 35 NW GDP 25 NE SVC 35 WSW ONM 35 ENE 4CR 15 WSW DHT 45 SW PUB 40 NW GJT 20 NE VEL 35 WNW RWL 30 NNE RIW 35 W COD BZN 25 W HLN 30 N PUW 45 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MN...MUCH OF WI...NRN IA...AND FAR NWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO KS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE STRONG TROUGH / EVOLVING LOW MOVING EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH / LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. FURTHER WEST...MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW / FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE N CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LOW CENTER INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS SD / NEB SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NRN OK / THE OK AND TX PANHANDLE REGION. ...MID AND UPPER MS / MID MO VALLEYS... AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...STAGE IS BEING SET FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EWD INTO MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST ATTM THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ND / NRN MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS TO BE THE CASE...AIRMASS FURTHER S -- JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT -- SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED. WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CAP WEAKENS ALONG COLD FRONT...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS MN BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS IA INTO ERN NEB AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM MN SWD INTO KS...MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO MN / WI -- ALONG AXIS OF 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. ACROSS THIS REGION...INTENSE / LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF TORNADOES ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST ATTM -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN / WI AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED WITH TIME ALONG FRONT...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND FRONT STRENGTHENS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...NEW ENGLAND... WEAK UPPER VORT CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER FEATURE CROSSING ERN QUEBEC SETTLES SWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS. ..GOSS.. 06/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 05:10:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 00:10:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506290521.j5T5LsvZ022303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290519 SWODY2 SPC AC 290518 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ROC 30 NNE PKB 45 NW CSV 35 SSW DYR 30 NW FSM 30 N OKC 50 NE AMA 40 N TCC 40 ENE LVS 35 E ALS 25 W COS 25 S CYS 45 E CYS 30 SSE SNY 30 SSW GLD 20 SSE SLN 30 ENE UIN 30 NE JVL 105 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE ISN 15 SW GDV 50 SE LVM 55 WNW 27U GEG 65 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MSS 25 N UCA 15 ENE UCA 30 WSW EPM ...CONT... 15 WNW LRD 45 SE AUS 40 S GGG 25 SE PRX 25 SSW SPS 40 E ROW 35 NW ROW 15 SSE ABQ 50 SW DGW 25 NNE DGW 15 SW CDR 40 NNW IML 10 ENE MCK 35 WSW BIE 10 SW OMA 35 SSW SPW 35 W RWF 15 NNE FAR 15 NNW GFK 70 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT 30/12Z WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SEWD INTO MEAN TROUGH BASE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MN WILL DEVELOP NEWD...REACHING NERN ONTARIO BY 01/12Z. PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...AND SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS IS ANTICIPATED AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST /30/12Z/ ALONG OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS STRONGER FORCING NEWD INTO ONTARIO OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT INITIAL MCS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S/ ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG FROM PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD INTO TROUGH BASE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO. RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO KS/OK... DESPITE WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH WWD EXTENT...APPEARS STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS INTO NRN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ANAFRONT STRUCTURE SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW DOMINANCE/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER TO THE W...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD TO THE RATON MESA WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH STORMS TENDING TO WEAKEN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. ..MEAD.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 29 17:22:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 12:22:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506291734.j5THY2vf019571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291731 SWODY2 SPC AC 291730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ROC HLG 45 NW CSV 35 SSW DYR 30 NW FSM 30 N OKC 50 NE AMA 40 N TCC 40 ENE LVS 35 E ALS 25 W COS 25 S CYS 45 E CYS 30 SSE SNY 20 NE GLD 10 S CNK 10 S OTM 10 SW MSN 90 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 25 ENE Y22 40 ENE COD 55 E PIH 20 SSW 27U 45 WSW BKE 20 NNW PUW 45 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LRD 10 N ALI 20 WNW LCH 20 NNE PRX 25 SSW SPS 20 ESE LBB 40 SSW TCC 55 SSW LVS 30 ENE SAF 20 ENE ALS 45 SW LAR 20 S 81V 25 SE RAP 25 N MHN 20 WSW EAR 30 WNW BIE 10 SW OMA 55 WSW FOD FRM 20 SW STC 50 SSW BJI 70 N DVL ...CONT... 25 W ART 30 NW ITH 30 SSW UCA 20 SW BTV 3B1 25 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / CLOSED LOW -- INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP / OCCLUDED LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN / SWRN ONTARIO / NWRN MN SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY WITH TIME. COLD FRONT EXTENDING INITIALLY FROM ERN WI / LK MI WSWWD ACROSS NWRN IL / NRN MO INTO KS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY / SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS AS FAR WWD AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THOUGH ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION / CLOUD COVER WILL INFLUENCE EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT IN SOME AREAS...OVERALL EXPECT MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT FROM LOWER MI SSWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. WITH PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. STORMS / SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...KS / NRN OK WWD INTO ERN CO / NERN NM... AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND S OF ENE-WSW FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS / OK / NM / THE TX PANHANDLE. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG / ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. WITH MODERATE /25 TO 35 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INVOF FRONT...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS -- ESPECIALLY JUST N OF BOUNDARY WHERE ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT JUST N OF FRONT WITHIN BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS / SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST / SHIFT SWD / SEWD ACROSS KS / OK AS FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SLOWLY SWD. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 05:24:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 00:24:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506300535.j5U5ZnGI025396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300533 SWODY2 SPC AC 300532 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 20 SSE GON ...CONT... 35 E SBY 35 SE TRI 20 SE CSV 35 SE BWG 30 SSE SDF 45 ENE LUK 10 SSW YNG 60 NW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COS 35 NW AKO 10 ESE SNY 35 NNW IML 25 NNE GCK 10 ESE OKC 40 SW ADM 55 SW SPS 35 NNW TCC 10 SW TAD 25 ENE COS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 50 SE DVL 15 SE JMS 65 SW JMS 40 NW MBG 40 W Y22 65 NE 4BQ 45 N MLS 15 WSW GGW 75 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 15 E TPL 20 NNW HOB 20 NW ROW 35 NNE 4CR 35 S ALS 10 WSW 4FC 35 WNW LAR 50 SE WRL 25 WNW JAC 50 NNW SUN 20 E LWS 60 NE 63S ...CONT... INL 30 NNE LNK 15 S BIE 25 SW TOP 15 WSW COU 30 SSW DNV 30 SW FWA MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO SEWD INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN MT/ND... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD FROM ONTARIO/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...WITH PRIMARILY WNW FLOW REGIME FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF 01/12Z...WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER N TX INTO ERN NM. ...NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA SWWD INTO ERN OH/WV AND ERN KY. SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR E AS WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE DELMARVA FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK... AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING INVOF OF SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX NWWD INTO NERN NM AND ERN CO WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA/SRN ORE...HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE E OF INSTABILITY AXIS BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO/NERN NM AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRIMARY MECHANISMS DRIVING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEST /25-35 KTS/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SURFACE WINDS WITH AN ELY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WRN KS/TX PNHDL WITH HAIL/WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX. ...ERN MT/ND... APPEARS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN FARTHER S OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S. NONETHELESS...STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD THROUGH AREA. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...TN VALLEY/ARKLATEX SWD TO THE GULF COAST... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING SWD. PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF LARGER STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 30 17:24:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 12:24:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200506301735.j5UHZhr9003376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301733 SWODY2 SPC AC 301732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE EFK 20 WSW EEN 25 SSE POU 25 SE JFK ...CONT... 35 E SBY CRW 10 SSE LOZ CKV 10 WSW EVV DAY 10 S CAK 25 WNW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC RTN PUB 10 S BFF CDR 30 NNE VTN BUB 30 WSW HLC 15 S GCK GAG OKC 10 SE MKO 10 ESE LIT GWO JAN MCB 15 SE ESF GGG FTW 55 SW SPS PVW TCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 15 WNW DLH 40 SSE AXN 25 ESE YKN BIE TOP TBN 10 SW MVN 25 SSW HUF 40 SE FWA 35 E TOL ...CONT... 20 S BPT 15 E TPL 20 NNW HOB 20 NW ROW ABQ 4BL 10 ENE MLF ENV WMC SVE MHS MFR 15 NNW RDM PDT 45 NW S06 100 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS THROUGH STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY...INTO QUEBEC AND AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BROADENING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND FLAT UPPER HIGH CENTERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN MEXICAN/SOUTHERN U.S. PLATEAU REGION. FARTHER UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL DIG ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. ...OHIO VALLEY/ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY EASTERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGES...EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...WILL PROVIDE FOCUS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY. BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F IS EXPECTED IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. BETTER FLOW/SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER DARK...WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AIDED BY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT 12Z FRIDAY. AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BENEATH INCREASINGLY WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME...HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LACK OF BETTER FLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH SEASONABLY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE DRYING HAS OCCURRED...AND SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING HOURS...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF BETTER FORCING. ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO BETTER WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES... DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ..KERR.. 06/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.