From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 05:52:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 00:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507010604.j616452o016067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010602 SWODY2 SPC AC 010601 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD 55 ENE ATY 10 WSW HON PIR 81V GCC SHR 3HT LWT GGW 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT GRB DBQ UIN POF 35 S MKL MSL HSV AVL CHO ACY ...CONT... GLS AUS MAF HOB 65 NE 4CR GUC 45 N PUC MLD 27U 3TH 85 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN MT TO WRN/NRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN GREAT LAKES CROSSES QUE AND WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...STALLING ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS WARM FRONT...BECOMING DIFFUSE EXCEPT WHERE REINFORCED BY ANY MCS OUTFLOWS FROM LATE DAY-1 CONVECTION. WLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SFC HEATING/MIXING JUST E OF ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN SD SSEWD TO VICINITY KS/CO BORDER. MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF BC -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/SHIFT EWD ACROSS MT/DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NWRN TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS... LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION IS FCST TO SPREAD INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS STATES BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVER NRN PLAINS...SFC THETAE WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SELY FLOW FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY ENRICHED CORN BELT MOISTURE. MAIN POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH PLAINS OF MT/NERN WY...AND PERHAPS WRN DAKOTAS. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FOR ANY SUCH ACTIVITY...EXCEPT IN THE EVENT OF CAP BREAKAGE OVER CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS CLOSER TO RICH SFC MOISTURE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER DAKOTAS AND ERN/NRN MN OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY NOCTURNAL MCS THAT EVOLVES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SEVERAL DAYS OF WLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP GREAT PLAINS AIR MASS...RESULTING IN STRONG CAPPING ALONG MOST OF WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE. ANY TSTMS FORMING ALONG/E OF DRYLINE OR INVOF WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL BE IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...GULF COAST STATES AND GA/CAROLINAS... BROAD AREA OF PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...FROM NC TO E TX -- MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE DURING DAY-2. VERY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT...THEREFORE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK NOT JUSTIFIED THIS SOON. HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. ...SRN PLAINS... GULF COAST REGIME MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS N TX OR OK...EXCEPT WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM MORE SLY SFC WINDS AND NW FLOW ALOFT. PLACEMENT OF EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE -- DEPENDS STRONGLY ON DEVELOPMENT/POSITIONING OF OUTFLOWS FROM ANY LATE DAY-1 MCS. THEREFORE VERY BROAD CORRIDOR IS ASSIGNED MARGINAL PROBABILITIES ATTM...WHICH MAY INCREASE ONCE MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 17:25:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 12:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507011736.j61HaM9F001960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011734 SWODY2 SPC AC 011733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 15 WSW DLH 30 ESE MSP 35 NNE FOD SUX 35 N VTN 30 N RAP 55 NE 4BQ 10 W GDV 35 E OLF 65 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 30 SSE AUS 30 WNW JCT 10 S HOB 65 NE 4CR GUC 45 N PUC 35 S MLD 45 NE SUN 40 WSW MSO 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NE MQT 35 ESE CWA DBQ 15 ENE P35 50 ENE CNU 60 N HOT 45 N TUP 50 S BNA 20 WNW TRI CHO ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. THRU THE DAY2 PERIOD. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND POSITIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO SERN ALBERTA DRAGGING THE SRN PORTION ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS. COMPARING THE NAM WITH THE GFS AND NAMKF...WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION IN THIS FORECAST. NAM LOOKS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN NEB INTO MN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THIS HAS LEAD TO AN ABUNDANCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...GFS DOES A BETTER JOB INDICATING STRENGTH OF THICKNESS RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY 03/00Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD THRU CENTRAL ND...THEN SWWD ACROSS W CENTRAL SD INTO NRN NV. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50-60 KT AND NEAR 100 KT RESPECTIVELY IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND W CENTRAL MT BY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES EXIT REGION OVER CENTRAL AND ERN MT BY EVENING WITH DIVERGENT FLOW FROM EXTREME ERN MT SWD OVER ERN CO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO 40-50 KT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN SD INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS EAST AND NORTH OF SURFACE LOW. AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCAPE REACHES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS NWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT/WRN ND... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY EVENING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND EXIT REGION MOVES OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS ENHANCING UVVS. ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER/MID LEVEL CAP...BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AS ACTIVITY FORMS INTO AN MCS MOVING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER CENTRAL AND SERN SD IN AREA OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT JUST W OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE IS MOST FAVORABLE. ...GULF COAST STATES... MOIST...UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW /EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD STILL REMAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 06:19:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 01:19:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507020630.j626UGrr025048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020627 SWODY2 SPC AC 020627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DEN 50 SSW HSI LNK OTG AXN BJI 50 SSW INL DLH CWA JVL MMO BMI SPI JEF TUL GAG CAO TAD 40 NE DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CRP VCT LFK GGG PRX DUA SPS LBB CVS TCC 25 W RTN 55 W COS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM LWT MLS 55 SSE Y22 50 NW ABR JMS 70 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NNE APN MBS HUF MDH ARG LIT PBF GLH GWO TUP LBE AOO HGR SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB 40 WSW ECG 50 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...MAIN FEATURE OF RELEVANCE BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN BC. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...DURING DAY-1 PERIOD...REACHING SERN SASK AND DAKOTAS BY APPROXIMATELY 04/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM ERN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB/NERN CO EARLY IN PERIOD...EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS LS REGION. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS PORTIONS IA/NWRN KS/ERN CO. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST E OF TX/NM BORDER NWD ACROSS SRN CO/KS BORDER REGION ...THEN INTERSECT FRONT...DURING LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT...IN AN ARC FROM MN ACROSS WRN IA/SWRN NEB...WSWWD TO ERN CO. ...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY... STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE FCST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT SWRN IA/SERN NEB NWD...WHILE STRONGEST MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT SRN MN SWD...AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS OVER THAT CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OVER PORTIONS WRN IA/NWRN MO/SERN NEB AREA...S OF REGION WHERE CANADIAN SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING VEER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WEAKER AND POTENTIALLY BACKED SFC WINDS OVER THIS AREA YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF ADVECTIVE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID 60S - MID 70S F RANGE DURING AFTERNOON OVER IA/NEB BORDER REGION...WHERE GREATEST CAPE AND MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATIONS OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IA AND/OR NRN MO...MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BOTH 1. ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT HAVE LARGEST CHANCE TO BREAK CAP AND 2. IN ERN CO WHERE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE. STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ACROSS CO/KS NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. MOISTURE AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE STRONGER OVER KS...MAKING AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL BUT ALSO MORE POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS. AS OFTEN IS TRUE IN SIMILAR PATTERNS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OVER ERN CO...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED. ONE OR TWO NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES MAY DEVELOP IN SITU OR FROM AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOVING SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD KS/OK BORDER REGION WITH SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ...SERN CONUS... RESIDUAL SEGMENTS OF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG SFC HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY EARLY-MIDDLE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY FORM MULTICELL CLUSTERS. BOTH PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EACH POSSIBLE. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FCST..AND MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES UNDEFINABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO DISORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 07:37:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 02:37:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507020748.j627m7gf021056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020745 SWODY2 SPC AC 020744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DEN 50 SSW HSI LNK OTG AXN BJI 50 SSW INL DLH CWA JVL MMO BMI SPI JEF TUL GAG CAO TAD 40 NE DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CRP VCT LFK GGG PRX DUA SPS LBB CVS TCC 25 W RTN 55 W COS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM LWT MLS 55 SSE Y22 50 NW ABR JMS 70 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NNE APN MBS HUF MDH ARG LIT PBF GLH GWO TUP LBE AOO HGR SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB 40 WSW ECG 50 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...MAIN FEATURE OF RELEVANCE BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN BC. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...DURING DAY-1 PERIOD...REACHING SERN SASK AND DAKOTAS BY APPROXIMATELY 04/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM ERN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB/NERN CO EARLY IN PERIOD...EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS LS REGION. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS PORTIONS IA/NWRN KS/ERN CO. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST E OF TX/NM BORDER NWD ACROSS SRN CO/KS BORDER REGION ...THEN INTERSECT FRONT...DURING LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT...IN AN ARC FROM MN ACROSS WRN IA/SWRN NEB...WSWWD TO ERN CO. ...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY... STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE FCST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT SWRN IA/SERN NEB NWD...WHILE STRONGEST MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT SRN MN SWD...AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS OVER THAT CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OVER PORTIONS WRN IA/NWRN MO/SERN NEB AREA...S OF REGION WHERE CANADIAN SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING VEER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WEAKER AND POTENTIALLY BACKED SFC WINDS OVER THIS AREA YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF ADVECTIVE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID 60S - MID 70S F RANGE DURING AFTERNOON OVER IA/NEB BORDER REGION...WHERE GREATEST CAPE AND MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATIONS OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IA AND/OR NRN MO...MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BOTH 1. ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT HAVE LARGEST CHANCE TO BREAK CAP AND 2. IN ERN CO WHERE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE. STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ACROSS CO/KS NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. MOISTURE AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE STRONGER OVER KS...MAKING AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL BUT ALSO MORE POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS. AS OFTEN IS TRUE IN SIMILAR PATTERNS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OVER ERN CO...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED. ONE OR TWO NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES MAY DEVELOP IN SITU OR FROM AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOVING SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD KS/OK BORDER REGION WITH SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ...SERN CONUS... RESIDUAL SEGMENTS OF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG SFC HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY EARLY-MIDDLE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY FORM MULTICELL CLUSTERS. BOTH PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EACH POSSIBLE. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FCST..AND MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES UNDEFINABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO DISORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 17:17:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 12:17:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507021728.j62HSm33000835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021726 SWODY2 SPC AC 021725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RRT 45 W RHI 25 ESE CWA 40 S OSH 15 W CGX 35 ENE BMI COU 10 SE CNU 50 WSW END 35 NW CSM 35 N AMA 10 NW TAD COS FCL 55 ESE CYS 25 SW IML 15 SW MCK 20 SSE HSI 15 ENE OLU 40 N RWF 15 NW AXN 15 NW TVF 35 SSE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ OSC 35 E LAF 25 S MTO 10 WSW TBN 40 SW JLN SPS LBB CVS 15 NE ALS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM 20 ESE 3HT 40 NW 4BQ 50 NW PHP 20 SSE MBG 60 SW JMS 55 NE BIS 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP VCT LFK 15 NNW ESF GWO BNA 25 NNW LEX 25 NE DAY 30 NNW MFD 10 SW ERI JHW 15 NE DUJ 20 SW AOO 20 ENE EKN 10 SSE ROA 25 W DAN 10 NE RDU 15 ENE RWI 30 WSW ECG 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...WHILE A FLAT RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN SWWD INTO SWRN KS BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TIME. ...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION... GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE PUSHING THROUGH ERN MN/WRN WI AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL NEED TIME TO DESTABILIZE... DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM IA SWWD INTO NEB. MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN MN/WI AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING STRONGEST FORCING IN SRN ONTARIO AND SERN NEB/IA AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT FROM MN SWD INTO WRN IA/SERN NEB AS DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS WEAK CAP IN MN ...WHILE STRONGER FORCING IN SERN NEB/IA AIDS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY PLUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRONG CURATIVE IN THE LOWER 3 KM...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/ LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATES NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NEB AND IA...WITH THE GREATEST INITIAL THREAT LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL. ONCE THE DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND MCS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...IL AND NRN MO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG HEATING AND MASS CONVERGENCE AID IN WEAKENING A STRONG CAP. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD DURING THE EVENING ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES LIFT AND ADVECTS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED. WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN CO...BUT SHOULD TURN SEWD INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT. ...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... WEAK UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BE IDENTIFIED. ..IMY.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 06:11:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 01:11:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507030622.j636MpnA030900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030621 SWODY2 SPC AC 030620 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK DDC CSM LTS CDS PVW CVS 50 W TCC RTN TAD PUB COS DEN CYS DGW 45 S GCC 45 WSW RAP 55 ENE CDR MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW SDF HOP 25 WNW MEM 55 NNE LIT HRO JEF MLI MTW 40 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX 55 S CLL AUS SJT BGS HOB 35 NW GDP ALM ONM 4SL 45 N CEZ CNY 50 NE U24 30 WSW OGD 40 SE MLD RKS RWL 30 SW CPR 30 SSW COD WEY 60 SW 27U BOI SVE RBL 35 W MHS MFR RDM PDT ALW GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 45 NW HVR PIR 9V9 OFK LNK BIE MHK OJC P35 MCW STC AXN JMS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNE MOT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MI TO ERN OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST IMPORTANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE FIRST -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MT/SK LINE -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD GENERALLY ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED/AMPLITUDE/TILT OF THIS FEATURE ARE FAR SMALLER THAN IN PRIOR RUNS...AND NOW INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED PERTURBATION FROM SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY REGION...SWWD ACROSS NRN ONT TO UPPER MS VALLEY...BY ABOUT 05/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM LH AND LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/ERN MO BY THEN...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY INVOF RED RIVER AND WWD INTO ERN NM. ...GREAT LAKES TO AR... LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS EXISTS OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND MORE SPORADIC/ISOLATED DOWNBURST EVENTS EXTENDS FARTHER SW INTO ERN OZARKS REGION..DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES -- NEVER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG BECAUSE OF LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING WITH HEIGHT -- ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTEND ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES 35-34 KT IN NRN LOWER MI...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 15 KT OVER AR. BY CONTRAST...BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...BECAUSE OF LARGER DEGREES OF BOTH SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. SFC DEW POINTS 70S F SUPPORT FCST MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG OVER AR/WRN KY/SERN MO REGION...DIMINISHING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER DEW POINTS MAY RESTRAIN BUOYANCY. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED WITH HAIL BEING MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED. A NOCTURNAL CLUSTER OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND MAINTAIN WIND POTENTIAL WELL AFTER DARK...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF OUTLOOK AREA. SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST N OF SFC FRONT...OVER BROAD AREA FROM NERN NM NWD PAST BLACK HILLS. GREATEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED UPSLOPE SHOULD BE FROM VICINITY CO/NM BORDER REGION NWD ACROSS CO. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN -- SUCH AS RTN/PALMER/CYS RIDGES AND OF ERN FRONT OF MOUNTAINS -- SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE IN PROFILE OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS BUT MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT WRN PART OF THIS OUTLOOK CORRIDOR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS DURING EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY CONGEAL FROM THIS ACTIVITY..OR IN SITU AFTER DARK. PRIND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DAMAGING MCS DEVELOPMENT IS FROM ERN CO/NERN NM ACROSS WRN KS OR PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 16:57:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 11:57:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507031708.j63H8geo031604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031706 SWODY2 SPC AC 031705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK DDC CSM 10 WSW LTS CDS PVW 10 SSW CVS 50 W TCC RTN TAD PUB COS DEN CYS DGW 45 S GCC 45 WSW RAP 55 ENE CDR MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW SDF HOP 50 NE PBF 45 NW LIT 20 WNW HRO 10 ESE COU MLI MTW 40 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX 55 S CLL AUS SJT BGS HOB 35 NW GDP ALM ONM 4SL 45 N CEZ CNY 50 NE U24 30 WSW OGD 40 SE MLD RKS RWL 30 SW CPR 30 SSW COD WEY 60 SW 27U BOI SVE RBL 35 W MHS MFR RDM PDT ALW GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 45 NW HVR 30 NNE PHP 9V9 65 W YKN 40 ENE BUB 30 SE HSI 25 SSE CNK 20 E FNB 15 N LWD MCW STC AXN JMS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNE MOT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO AR... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH MONDAY...SKIRTING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/GREAT LAKES REGION. A SECONDARY SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO UPPER MI...WI SWWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. A WEAK LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KANSAS CITY...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVEL NEWD TOWARD CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE. WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE OCCURRING VCNTY THE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO ERN KS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW AGAIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS. FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID-LEVELS WILL PRIMARILY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY...SUGGESTING THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWS ECHOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODES ACROSS LOWER MI...IL AND INDIANA. FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT...THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER N. IN CONTRAST...BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATER FARTHER S GIVEN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/FRONT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...MAINLY FROM NERN AR NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... REMNANT MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND CNTRL OK MONDAY MORNING. LLJ THAT WILL BE FEEDING THIS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH A BRANCH TRANSLATING FARTHER NE INTO THE LOWER OH VLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE MCS. THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS /WITH RISKS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME DIVERGENT ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH TIME AND ANY DEFINED FOCI...IF ANY...ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM. BY AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE FROM NERN NM TO SERN MT. STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT/CONVERGENCE IS APT TO EXIST ALONG/N OF THE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED FRONT ACROSS CO/NERN NM. INTENSE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT LARGE DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM ERN CO/NERN NM INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. ..RACY.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 06:04:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 01:04:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507040615.j646FS5l024828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040612 SWODY2 SPC AC 040611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ROW 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN MCK DDC GAG 40 SE CDS 70 NW ABI 50 NNW HOB 55 NNE ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL LCI MSV EKN CRW HTS LUK 35 W DAY 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BPT CLL JCT DRT ...CONT... ELP TCS 4SL GUC ASE EGE 50 NE RKS IDA 40 NNE 27U 3DU LWT MLS GDV SDY 80 NNW ISN ...CONT... 95 N GFK DVL MBG 50 ENE PIR SUX OMA EMP BVO FYV HRO STL CGX MKE VOK EAU 45 N BRD RRT ...CONT... ACY 10 WNW NHK RIC 35 ENE RWI 55 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID/UPPER OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL FEATURE FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY REGION...AND RIDGING ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT VERY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 04/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 03/21Z SREF MEMBERS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PATTERN. PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS -- POSSIBLY INCLUDING MVC FROM DAY-1 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES -- SHOULD LEAD TO TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SEWD ACROSS SWRN GREAT LAKES TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS KY TO ARKLATEX. FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER W THROUGH W TX AND NM WILL BE STRONGLY MODULATED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ...NERN CONUS... DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DAY IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS FROM OH VALLEY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH...MOIST ADVECTION AND DIURNAL/DIABATIC SFC HEATING. ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK CINH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF CONVECTION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...BOTH OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF ONT. MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING SRN EDGE OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL RATHER NEBULOUS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... NW-FLOW SEVERE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN CO THROUGH ERN NM. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL SPEEDS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS MOVING SEWD TO SSEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF MOTION IS FCST -- TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER EVENTS OVER WRN TX/NM UNDER WEAK-MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT -- KEEPING BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER HIGH PLAINS EVEN AFTER DARK. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE EXPECTED IN INFLOW REGION OF CONVECTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AIDING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO RELATIVELY DENSE CLUSTER OR MCS AND MOVE SSEWD OR SWD OVER SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AFTER DARK. MORE SPECIFIC CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS REGION -- INCLUDING MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS -- WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON POSITION/ORIENTATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY LATE DAY-1 CONVECTION. ...SRN LOW PLAINS... MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL MAY MOVE SEWD FROM SERN CO/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIODS. REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR FCST DETAILS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER PAST 05/12Z AS ACTIVITY ENTERS PARTS OF NW TX...AND/OR RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX. PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MORNING AS 1. BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLES...CAUSING WEAKENING LLJ AND DIMINISHING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND 2. ACTIVITY MOVES INTO REGIME OF WEAKER MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS AND SMALLER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 17:19:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 12:19:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507041730.j64HUnrF008784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041728 SWODY2 SPC AC 041727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E 4CR 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN HLC 45 ENE GAG SPS 30 S SEP 55 SW SJT 15 E CNM 50 E 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL POU 45 WSW MRB 10 SW CRW 35 SE LUK 25 NNW LUK 20 NNW DAY 60 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 SSE ALM ONM 40 N GNT 25 SW MTJ U24 40 NE TPH 20 ESE LOL 40 W OWY IDA 40 NNE 27U 50 NE MSO 55 N LWT 65 S GGW 30 NNW GDV 35 WNW ISN 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK DVL 45 SSE BIS 50 ENE PIR 35 WNW DSM 30 S P35 30 S OJC SGF 15 NW UNO 30 WSW MTO CGX 30 SSE MKE 10 ESE LNR 15 ENE MKT 45 S AXN RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK / NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEHIND THIS TROUGH / AHEAD OF QUASI-STATIONARY SWRN U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / PLAINS STATES ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE A SECOND FRONTAL SURGE MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN MUDDLED ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITH STRONGEST BOUNDARIES LIKELY BEING THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO TX / OK... MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE ENHANCED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS. OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS / MCSS -- INITIATING PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW -- AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. EXACT LOCATIONS OF CONCENTRATED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THREAT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM...AS WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- AND SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD -- WILL AFFECT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM ERN CO / SWRN NEB SWD ACROSS ERN NM / PARTS OF NWRN TX. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...DEGREE OF RESULTING INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOCATION OF ANY SUCH ENHANCED THREAT AREAS CANNOT BE DISCERNED ATTM. ...THE NORTHEAST... DIURNAL HEATING OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT / AWAY FROM CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON...FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERAL MORE ORGANIZED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. WEAKER FLOW FROM KY SWWD INTO AR SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM OH / WV NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN STORMS / SEVERE THREAT LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 06:10:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 01:10:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507050621.j656L1mA002600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050617 SWODY2 SPC AC 050616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL P28 CSM 50 NNW CDS EHA LHX 40 E DEN BFF AIA LBF RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 7R4 LFT HEZ GWO TUP CSV LOZ LEX BMG DNV CGX MKG OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF GDP CVS TCC RTN 4FC LAR 50 NE CPR 50 ENE COD WEY SUN 75 SE 4LW 45 SSW SVE RBL MFR DLS 65 NNE 4OM ...CONT... RRT TVF FAR 45 ENE ATY FOD IRK COU TBN HRO 45 SSE DAL DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH FCST PERIOD...AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NWRN ONT SSWWD TOWARD NRN IA -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER GREAT LAKES THROUGH PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND NERN PLAINS. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL TROUGH -- ACROSS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC REGION -- AND MOST PROBABLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA. THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE -- 1005-1010 MB RANGE WITH WEAK SURROUNDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS...PREVIOUS RUNS OF SAME...AND 21Z SREF MEMBERS AS TO ITS CENTRAL LOCATION AND SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ATTACHED FRONTS. PRIND WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ZONALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD OR SWWD INTO LOW...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION FROM PA/NJ THROUGH CAROLINAS. FARTHER W...WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SHIFTING SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS/ERN CO. BY AFTERNOON...VERY BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD EXTEND WNW-ESE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...MODULATED HEAVILY BY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OCCURRING BEFORE THEN. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER REGION AGAIN THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. SPECIFIC FOCI WILL BE MESOSCALE IN NATURE AND DICTATED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES OCCURRING THIS MORNING THROUGH DAY-1 PERIOD. MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD BE FROM PORTIONS ERN CO SEWD TOWARD NERN OK...WHERE SFC FLOW IS RELATIVELY BACKED...E-NE OF WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW AND INVOF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. EXPECT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR GIVEN ELY/SELY SFC FLOW AND NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS...YIELDING POTENTIALLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN SOME LOCALES. HOWEVER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT DURATION/LONGEVITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BETWEEN MIDAFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S MAY COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS SOME PORTIONS WRN KS AND NW OK. FARTHER NW ACROSS ERN CO...PROGGED ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE AMIDST STRONG SFC HEATING AND WEAKENING AFTERNOON CAP. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION OF T.D. 3 TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SERN LA DURING THIS PERIOD. REF NHC BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES AND FCST TRACK/INTENSITY. PROGGED WIND FIELDS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...OVER SOME PORTION OF NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION. ANY CHANGES IN SYSTEM TRACK OR SIZE/INTENSIFY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS COMPARED TO THOSE CURRENTLY PROGGED WOULD COMPEL ADJUSTMENT OF OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY. ...NERN CONUS... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY OVER PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR...S THROUGH E OF SFC LOW. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN AFTERNOON WHEN SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MLCAPE EACH ARE STRONGEST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...I.E. 50-60 KT AT 250MB...HOWEVER WEAK FLOW BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN MOST AREAS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MARGINAL ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA. ...NRN PLAINS... VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LARGE BUOYANCY BUY AFTERNOON...ALONG AND E OF A CONFLUENCE LINE/WEAK DRYLINE THAT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS/ERN WY. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS...E OF UPPER RIDGE WHERE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS SOME NLY COMPONENT. MIDLEVEL FLOWS 10-15 KT WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD BE WEAK. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS INSUFFICIENT ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 17:16:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:16:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507051727.j65HRUxD014454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051725 SWODY2 SPC AC 051724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL 25 E P28 45 SW END 30 W LTS 15 NNE PVW 35 E TCC LHX 40 NW LIC 25 ESE CYS 20 S BFF 30 SE AIA 20 NE MCK RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1 45 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW HEZ 30 N GLH 30 E MEM 55 N MSL 40 SE BNA 45 N CSV 25 S LEX 25 N LUK 30 SW FDY 30 ENE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF GDP 40 NNE ROW 40 NW TCC 30 SW PUB 20 SSE 4FC LAR 35 NE CPR 20 WSW SHR 30 ENE WEY 20 NW SUN 75 SE 4LW 45 SSW SVE RBL MFR DLS 65 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 75 NNE DVL 20 N JMS ABR 30 ESE MHE 35 NE OMA 30 ENE MKC 15 N UMN 10 WSW PGO 35 WNW ACT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE EXTREME NRN ROCKIES AND SWRN CANADA DURING THE DAY. NRN PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA. TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM DAY 1 OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA AND A LEE TROUGH OVER CO/NM WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME FROM PARTS OF NM NWD THROUGH CO AND SERN WY AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A MCS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED E OF THE CENTER OF TS CINDY AS IT MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND... BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF AL. ...CNTRL/ERN MT... MID/UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MOVE EWD ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH MT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES...BUT HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 06:03:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 01:03:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507060614.j666El7Y015342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060610 SWODY2 SPC AC 060609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK JMS MBG 40 SE REJ 40 SW 4BQ MLS GDV SDY ISN 80 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS TCC LHX LIC AKO IML MCK HLC GAG CDS 55 E LBB 60 SSE CVS CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW PBG ISP ...CONT... 35 ESE GPT TCL HSV CSV LOZ LEX IND 45 WSW FWA 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ELO DLH STC BKX MHE BUB EAR SLN ICT OKC BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 4FC CPR WRL SUN SVE MHS 65 NNE MFR RDM 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS/SERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND HUDSON BAY REGIONS. DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER ERN CONUS. OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...ALONG WITH MANY 21Z SREF MEMBERS...AGREE ON WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB OVER ERN GREAT LAKES OR ADJACENT PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA OF SERN ONT/SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN NEWD EJECTION OF REMAINS OF TS CINDY...SEE NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR SPECIFIC FCST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER NW...MINOR/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO PASS OVER PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...AMIDST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY/WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND PORTIONS DAKOTAS...WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SERN MT/NWRN SD PORTION OF FRONT. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CLUSTERING INTO AN MCS OR TWO IN EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AS RIDGE BUILDS TO W AND NW...FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAT DAY-1...ESPECIALLY IN UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN MORE BRIEF WINDOW FOR OPTIMAL STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...FCST LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ENLARGED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS. THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATED STRONG AFTERNOON BUOYANCY -- SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT. ...DAKOTAS/SERN MT AREA... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCI SHOULD BE FRONTAL ZONE OVER DAKOTAS/SERN MT...AND POSTFRONTAL NELYS ADVECTING RESIDUAL MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS SRN MT. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT AND IS EXPECTED TO ME MARGINAL INVOF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED SFC DEW POINTS IN 60S F SHOULD YIELD MDT-STRONG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY OVER ND AND NRN SD. LINE OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PRIMARILY MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR N-NE OF LEE CYCLONE ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FROM SERN MT TOWARD WRN DAKOTAS. ...TIDEWATER/PIEDMONT AREAS...DELMARVA TO SC... REMAINS OF TS CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH -- AND PERHAPS REGIONALLY ENHANCE -- WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED SW-NE OVER SERN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND BACKED FLOW ALONG/E OF THAT FRONT MAY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SE-NE OF LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING OPTIMIZES SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS THIS FAR INLAND...AND OF MESOSCALE DETAILS REGARDING FRONTAL INTERACTION -- PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 17:18:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 12:18:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507061729.j66HTJqJ032176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061727 SWODY2 SPC AC 061726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW GFK 65 SW JMS 35 SW Y22 25 SE 4BQ 45 SSE BIL 25 WNW BIL 35 SE LWT 40 SSW OLF 10 NW ISN 80 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CVS 50 ENE LVS 25 WSW PUB DEN 40 E FCL 30 SSW SNY 40 WSW IML 55 S GLD 30 SW LBL 30 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 S LBB 55 NNE HOB 20 W CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 45 E INL 20 NNE BRD 20 S ATY 30 N GRI 40 W HUT 20 ENE SPS 30 WSW MWL 25 WNW LFK 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 40 W RTN 10 SE CAG 20 S WRL 40 E MLD 25 NW LOL 30 ESE MHS 50 NE MFR 15 S ALW 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NEWD INTO S CNTRL CANADA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE AND MOVE FROM ERN MT BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO WRN ND BY THURSDAY EVENING. REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ERN U.S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ...ND THROUGH NW MN... A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO ND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHUNTED OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CANADA. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. WITH STRONGER MID AND UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST FRONTAL REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES APPEAR MOST LIKELY STORM TYPE...BUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT WHERE NLY POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE NNWLY...RESULTING IN WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE LIMITING FACTORS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...NM AND SRN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 25-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT OF UPPER FLOW...STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING E OF THE CO/NM BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... REMNANTS OF TS CINDY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 17:49:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 12:49:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507061800.j66I00fl017536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061757 SWODY2 SPC AC 061756 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW GFK 65 SW JMS 35 SW Y22 25 SE 4BQ 45 SSE BIL 25 WNW BIL 35 SE LWT 40 SSW OLF 10 NW ISN 80 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CVS 50 ENE LVS 25 WSW PUB DEN 40 E FCL 30 SSW SNY 40 WSW IML 55 S GLD 30 SW LBL 30 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 S LBB 55 NNE HOB 20 W CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 W RTN 10 SE CAG 20 S WRL 40 E MLD 25 NW LOL 30 ESE MHS 50 NE MFR 15 S ALW 50 N FCA ...CONT... 45 E INL 15 NNE BRD 35 ENE ATY 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD 20 SE SUX 30 NNE GRI 40 W HUT 20 ENE SPS 30 WSW MWL 25 WNW LFK 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE IA IN GENERAL THUNDER ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NEWD INTO S CNTRL CANADA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE AND MOVE FROM ERN MT BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO WRN ND BY THURSDAY EVENING. REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ERN U.S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ...ND THROUGH NW MN... A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO ND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHUNTED OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CANADA. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. WITH STRONGER MID AND UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST FRONTAL REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES APPEAR MOST LIKELY STORM TYPE...BUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT WHERE NLY POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE NNWLY...RESULTING IN WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE LIMITING FACTORS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...NM AND SRN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 25-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT OF UPPER FLOW...STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING E OF THE CO/NM BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... REMNANTS OF TS CINDY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 05:59:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:59:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507070609.j6769tmo024309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070607 SWODY2 SPC AC 070606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CMX JVL RFD PIA UIN MKC HUT GAG 65 WSW SPS MWL LFK HEZ MGM AUO LGC ATL TYS LOZ LEX MIE FWA JXN FNT 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 40 W CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... ELP ONM 4SL CPR WRL JAC BYI 4LW LMT 55 NNE MFR 50 ESE SLE DLS EPH 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW PIE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN GBN PHX SAD 45 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CO ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY. TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AK PANHANDLE/BC COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM PACIFIC NW NEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SRN ONT AND ERN GREAT LAKES FROM SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ENHANCING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ...MN/IA/ERN SD... POTENTIAL LATE DAY-1 MCS MAY STILL CONTAIN SOME STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S AND LOW 70S. REF LATEST DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. PRIND ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MORNING AS DIABATIC HEATING REDUCES/ELIMINATES NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...CAUSING WEAKENING OF LLJ. BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY ANY MORNING COMPLEX MAY...IN TURN...PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUCH CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...HEATED/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...BUILDING RIDGE TO W AND INCREASING CAPPING...COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO RELIANCE ON PRIOR CONVECTION...MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO SWD THROUGH W TX/ERN NM REGION. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE UPSLOPE...AMIDST STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR BOTH ALONG COMMON OROGRAPHIC FOCI AND ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT BY DAY-1 ACTIVITY. AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS...HOWEVER...LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE MULTICELL/TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE MODES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MORE MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/ERN MT AND WRN DAKOTAS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF JET MAX. MEAN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM ARE REASONABLY PROGGED OVER REGION GIVEN PERSISTENT WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. CONCERNS OVER MOISTURE AND LOCATION/STRENGTH OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING PRECLUDE LARGE ENOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...TIDEWATER AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN... REMAINS OF FORMER T.S. CINDY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN PERIOD. FAVORABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E AND S OF TRACK OF ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. THREAT MAY BE OVERWITH ALTOGETHER BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD IF CYCLONE REMNANTS EJECT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PROGGED. ...S FL... DENNIS IS FCST BY NHC TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO SERN GULF LATE IN PERIOD AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND RELATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES MAY AFFECT FL KEYS AND BRUSH PORTIONS SRN PENINSULA. IF CURRENT TRACK/INTENSITY PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE AS IS OR SHIFT EWD AT ALL...THIS AREA EVENTUALLY MAY NEED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 17:32:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 12:32:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507071743.j67HhGOZ029301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071741 SWODY2 SPC AC 071740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 4CR LVS 35 SE RTN 15 WSW DHT 20 NE PVW 50 SE LBB 40 S BGS 10 NE P07 40 ESE MRF 45 S GDP 40 NW GDP 10 S 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ELO 45 SE DLH 35 ESE BRD 25 SE AXN 45 W FOD 40 WNW BIE 40 SE LBF 35 W CDR 45 ESE 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 20 SSW Y22 30 SW MBG 40 W ABR 45 ESE JMS 60 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 45 NNE TUS 40 NE DUG 20 W SVC 55 ENE SOW U17 35 E SLC 20 SSW MLD 40 NE EKO 55 N BAM 60 SW BNO 30 SSW PDT 35 NW CTB ...CONT... 105 NE MQT 30 SSE CWA 25 SSE LNR 20 SSW OTM STJ MHK 20 E GAG 20 NNW LTS 35 SE SPS 15 NE SHV 20 N LUL 25 N TOI 30 NW AGS 30 W HSS 50 NNE HSV 35 ENE PAH 15 NE DEC 35 NE CGX 35 W MBS 60 SE OSC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AS REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THOUGH OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AWAY FROM AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEMS...BROAD SLY / SELY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION / UPSLOPE FLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS... LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY LARGE MCS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NAM / NAMKF BOTH SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY EVOLVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / NEB...PORTIONS OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY COOLED -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIKELY YIELDING A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN AREAS FOR AFTERNOON STORM REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED / SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- PERHAPS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF IA WWD ACROSS NEB AND THEN NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN / WRN ND IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION...WITH MAIN THREATS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH TIME AND THEN SHIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX... WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM / FAR W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NLY / NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY...DRY / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AN MCS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE COLD POOL MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE SEWD / SWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT... LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MT THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ATTM...GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED...AND WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... REMNANTS OF CINDY SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN NC / VA EARLY IN THE PERIOD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NC / VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION WITH TIME. GIVEN VERY MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS S AND E OF CIRCULATION CENTER...STRONG / ROTATING STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION. ...S FL AND THE KEYS... DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL / WRN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD AS A POTENTIALLY MAJOR HURRICANE -- PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NHC / TPC. ASSUMING NERN QUADRANT OF DENNIS CROSSES THE KEYS / SRN FL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS / ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL MAINTAIN A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR THIS AREA TO REFLECT THIS THREAT...WITH A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS ASSUMING TRACK FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT. ..GOSS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 05:38:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 00:38:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507080548.j685mtZx012067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080547 SWODY2 SPC AC 080545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PNS 30 SSW CEW 35 N DHN 30 WSW MCN 55 S AGS 40 ENE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 45 WNW JMS MBG 25 E REJ 25 SSE MLS 60 SSW GGW 65 NW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE PLACES HURRICANE DENNIS IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING NNWWD TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING EXPANDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GA...AL AND SC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE SHOW STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF FL...SRN GA AND SE AL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD ON SATURDAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SW FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ...WEST TX/ERN NM... THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN CO. EAST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NLY ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM CREATING STRONGLY VEERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SAT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM AND WEST TX DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 05:51:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 00:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507080601.j6861uR5017398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080559 SWODY2 SPC AC 080558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 45 WNW JMS MBG 25 E REJ 25 SSE MLS 60 SSW GGW 65 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PNS 30 SSW CEW 35 N DHN 30 WSW MCN 55 S AGS 40 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ACY 15 W TTN 20 NW ELM 35 NNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 30 SW ESC 25 WSW CID 30 W HUT 45 NE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50 NE JCT 20 WNW ACT 20 N PRX 40 WNW HOT 20 S MEM 35 NE CHA 60 SW RIC WAL ...CONT... 20 WNW ELP 35 ENE DRO 30 SW CAG 25 N RWL 25 NE RIW 45 ESE JAC 15 NNW MLD 60 WNW TWF 25 NNE BKE 20 SW S06 25 N CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE PLACES HURRICANE DENNIS IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING NNWWD TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING EXPANDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GA...AL AND SC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE SHOW STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF FL...SRN GA AND SE AL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD ON SATURDAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SW FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ...WEST TX/ERN NM... THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN CO. EAST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NLY ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM CREATING STRONGLY VEERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SAT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM AND WEST TX DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 17:24:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 12:24:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507081735.j68HZEYp015871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081732 SWODY2 SPC AC 081731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNE DVL 35 NW JMS 45 N RAP 40 ENE 4BQ 50 NNE SHR 40 ESE BIL 55 ESE LWT 55 SW GGW 55 NNW OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNS 40 NNE CEW ABY 15 WSW JAX DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 85 WNW TCS 30 SW CAG 35 E RKS 40 SE BPI 35 E MLD 65 NNE ENV 35 SSE BOI 80 E BKE 30 NNW HLN 50 ESE HVR 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 70 NW ANJ 40 ESE MKE 25 NE MLI 35 S FOD 25 ENE GRI 30 W HUT 35 ENE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50 NE JCT 20 WNW ACT 20 N PRX 20 S HRO 20 WSW JBR 35 NNW TUP 35 NNW BHM 40 WNW AND 25 ENE CRW 25 SE HLG 20 SE YNG 55 WNW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SWRN GA / SERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS ERN MT AND INTO WRN ND / NWRN SD... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF THIS PERIOD...WITH U.S. LANDFALL NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WINDS / OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN U.S. WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ERN MT / WRN ND / PARTS OF WY...WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FL AND ADJACENT SERN AL / SWRN GA... ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC / TPC...HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED W OF THE FL KEYS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG SUCH A TRACK...STRONG SLY FLOW AROUND ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS FL...AND INTO PARTS OF SRN GA / SRN AL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST...AS TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUTER BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WHERE FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. ...ERN MT / WRN ND... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN MT / NWRN ND / NRN WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS WRN ND OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT OVER SERN AND ERN MT SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY BUT STRONGER CAP SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL FORCING INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND VICINITY...AND THEN DEVELOP / SPREAD ENEWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN ND. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...BELT OF MUCH STRONGER / SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF ND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS AREAS FROM WRN ND WWD. WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE HIGH-BASED ABOVE A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE / EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER WRN ND...THOUGH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER / INCREASED CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN NM AND PARTS OF W TX... WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MODEST /50S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY HIGH-BASED STORM...A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER / POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND ADJACENT W TX. ACROSS THIS REGION...A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 KT NNWLYS AT MID-LEVELS MAY YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF MULTICELL /WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LIMITED WIND / HAIL POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 05:36:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 00:36:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507090546.j695kias027192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090544 SWODY2 SPC AC 090543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 35 SE JMS 35 E PIR 45 WNW VTN 20 NNE BFF 50 NW BFF 30 NNE DGW 30 SSW 81V 35 E REJ 50 ENE DIK 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 20 S ORL 30 SSW AGR 35 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 E PNS SEM 10 NE BHM 40 NNE GAD 35 ESE CHA 50 NNW AHN 25 SSE AND 30 SE AGS 30 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ELP 45 SSE ALS 35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 20 NE 3TH 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 25 NE RWF 35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E BVO 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW BMG 40 ENE LEX 30 W BKW 30 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN 15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL...GA AND FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND...SD...FAR NWRN NEB AND FAR ERN WY... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LATEST HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE MOVES HURRICANE DENNIS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER MOVING ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EAST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FL...GA AND ERN AL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY EAST OF THE CENTER SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUITABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST OVER A LARGE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MORE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF A DRY SLOT CAN WRAP AROUND THE HURRICANE ALLOWING STRONG SFC HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RAINBANDS THAT MOVE NORTH AND NWWD ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN PLAINS... A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH INTO ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND WRN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2500 J/KG. IF THIS VERIFIES...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 17:26:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 12:26:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507091736.j69Hanbr001949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091733 SWODY2 SPC AC 091731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 20 SE FAR 35 ENE PIR 30 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 45 SE 4BQ 25 E DIK 55 NNE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PNS 30 SSW CBM 20 NNE TUP 25 SSE BNA 30 SW TYS 30 NE AGS 25 SW DAB 20 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CMX 25 NE RWF 35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E BVO 50 SSE SZL 55 SSE SDF 35 NNW HKY 25 ESE GSO 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 45 SSE ALS 35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 25 NW HLN 35 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN 15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THIS PERIOD. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA / SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC / TPC. MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. / NRN ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ERN RIDGE -- EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY INTO THE ARCTIC. SURFACE LOW / FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SERN CONUS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK / INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HURRICANE DENNIS...LARGE AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY / ELY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED -- WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE STORM CIRCULATION -- FROM FL NWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND AL...AND INTO TN. WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR / HELICITY FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN OUTER BANDS. ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ONLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INVOF FRONT. AS BELT OF STRONGER /35 TO 45 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS MT / WY INTO WRN AND CENTRAL ND / WRN SD WITH TIME...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS. THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WOULD SUGGEST THAT EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING / SUPERCELL STORMS. OVERNIGHT...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY YIELD MCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAKER WIND FIELD / LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD COMBINE WITH STRONGER CAPPING TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN SD / ERN CO INTO NERN NM....AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SERN NM / W TX...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED / LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. FURTHER...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. THEREFORE...THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST...AND WILL EXTEND 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY SWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE RIO GRANDE. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 05:39:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 00:39:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507100550.j6A5oMW2023644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100548 SWODY2 SPC AC 100547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 40 SSW ESF 30 N MLU 65 SSW JBR 40 S CGI 40 WNW HOP 30 S BWG 40 E CHA 15 SE MCN 25 N VLD 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DRT 60 E JCT 15 N DAL BVO 45 E ICT 30 SSW HUT 25 ENE GAG 65 NNE BGS 20 N FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 W ELP 20 ENE ALM 45 NE 4CR 45 WSW RTN 25 NNW FCL 35 NNW REJ 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 55 NE CMX 35 SE EAU 45 ENE ALO 10 SE MLI 40 W UNI 15 ESE EKN 20 SE HGR 10 ESE ELM 35 WNW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY... ...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY... THE LATEST HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE BRINGS HURRICANE DENNIS INLAND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND MOVING ACROSS MS ON MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL IN RAINBANDS THAT SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS MS...AL AND WRN TN WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 M/S FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE RAINBANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD INTO SRN CANADA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN MN SSWWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL NEB. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF ASCENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 17:27:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 12:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507101737.j6AHbjh0013536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101735 SWODY2 SPC AC 101734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S MOB 25 SE MEI 30 SW TUP 25 SW DYR 30 SSW CGI 15 WNW MVN 40 NNW EVV 60 W LOZ 50 ESE CHA 30 W ABY 10 SSW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DRT 40 ENE AUS 50 NNW POE 10 WSW GLH 35 W ARG 30 ESE VIH 25 ESE OJC 25 NNE EMP 30 ESE ICT 10 WSW SPS 15 E SJT 50 ESE P07 ...CONT... 20 W ELP 20 ENE ALM 55 NNE 4CR 50 NNW LVS 40 NE ALS 35 ESE EGE 25 WNW LAR 55 WSW RAP 35 NNW REJ 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 85 NNW ANJ 15 WSW CWA 35 W JVL 20 SW FWA 20 S CMH 25 ENE LBE 25 WSW ACY 15 NNE PHL 25 S IPT 35 NNE BFD 45 NW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL SYSTEM DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE WELL INLAND -- ACROSS NERN MS -- AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NWD TOWARD SRN IL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACCORDING TO LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC / TPC. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WLYS N OF SWRN U.S. RIDGE -- SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME SHUNTED NEWD WITH TIME AS IT IMPINGES UPON STRONG NERN U.S. / ERN CANADA RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST ASIDE FROM DENNIS WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS... THOUGH DENNIS WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN ENHANCED SLY / SELY FLOW FIELD AROUND THE ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS THROUGH 12/12Z. ...NRN PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INVOF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE / REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE U.S. / CANADA BORDER...MODERATE SWLYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WEAKENING WITH TIME AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...WITH MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... BROAD ZONE OF SELY / ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH TIME ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. WITH UPPER RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY WWD DUE TO DENNIS...UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH 20 TO 25 KT ANTICYCLONIC NWLY / NLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG ERN FRINGES OF UPPER HIGH...RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE STORMS. WITH NAM APPARENTLY TOO FAR W WITH DENNIS...EXACT LOCATION OF WRN UPPER RIDGE -- AND STRENGTH / LOCATION OF BELT OF NLY FLOW AROUND ERN PORTION OF RIDGE -- REMAINS A QUESTION. THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 05:33:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 00:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507110543.j6B5hnjs011167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110541 SWODY2 SPC AC 110540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EFK 10 W BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG 20 WNW FMN 30 W ASE 10 SW LAR 40 WNW ABR 20 ESE INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN US... LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER PLACES THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TUESDAY. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH REDEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LOW CENTER WHERE FLOW WILL BE WLY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO THE MTNS OF SE WY...CO AND NRN NM. AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP TUESDAY MORNING...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SLOWLY SWD PARALLELING THE FRONT RANGE AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 17:26:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 12:26:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507111737.j6BHbL0x019673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111735 SWODY2 SPC AC 111733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 40 NNW GUP 10 WSW ASE 35 ESE CYS 30 NW YKN 20 E INL ...CONT... 25 W EFK 10 W BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF HRCN DENNIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...OTHER THAN THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY... SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA OF IL/IN/KY DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM/ETA FORECASTS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY TO BE ACROSS IL EWD INTO NRN OH...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MOIST. THUS...WILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. GIVEN THAT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S GIVING MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED...THUS THE LOW PROBABILITIES. ...ERN CO INTO NERN NM... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/COLORADO HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW. DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM TO NEAR/AROUND 8.5C/KM. THUS... WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 05:50:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 00:50:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507120600.j6C60q9M006075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120558 SWODY2 SPC AC 120557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MOT 35 SSE GDV 25 E WEY 35 WSW MQM 40 SW 27U 50 WNW 27U 25 SW MSO 30 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 10 NNE RUT 15 SW POU 20 NE ACY ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 35 E INW 45 N CEZ 30 ESE ASE 20 SW GLD 40 SSW HSI 15 WNW SPW 40 NE IWD 80 NNE MQT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL BE ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ISOLATED MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE FEATURE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS MT. EARLY EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL MT WEDNESDAY SHOW LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 50 KT ACROSS MOST OF MT. THIS SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AS A STORM CLUSTER MOVES ENEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO FAR NW ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:19:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:19:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507121729.j6CHTthi026127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121727 SWODY2 SPC AC 121726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE MOT MOT DIK REJ CDR AIA GLD RSL SLN MHK FNB FOD RST AUW 20 E APN ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 45 E PHX FLG 40 SE PGA 4BL MTJ ASE 4FC LAR 60 S SHR COD IDA OWY 30 WNW RNO 50 ESE RBL MHS LMT BKE S80 FCA 65 NNW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN TO HUDSON BAY...AND BY BROAD AND QUASISTATIONARY DEEP-LAYER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. GIVEN BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...LOW SHOULD MEANDER SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY ACROSS SRN IL/LOWER OH VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE....NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND -- IS FCST TO MOVE ASHORE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN PERIOD...ACROSS NRN ROCKIES DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER SRN SASK/NRN MT BY 14/12Z. WEAK COMBINATION OF LEE-SIDE AND FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MT. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN MB ACROSS WRN ND INTO N-CENTRAL AND WRN WY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/WRN MT DURING AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN REGION OF NELY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS REGION. CONCERNS OVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM...THOUGH AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS SOME PART OF THIS REGION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APCHS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECT TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS BEHIND SFC FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NW-W OF SFC CYCLONE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES 50-55 KT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN MT...DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC FRONT. STRONG HEATING AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND LIMITED BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING AFTERNOON...THOUGH 60S F DEW POINTS AND MDT BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN OVER SOME AREAS OF ERN MT/WRN ND...E OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK INSOLATION RELATED HEATING...AND AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED ALONG WEAK MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE LINES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES YET TO BE ESTABLISHED. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TO OFFSET MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 DEG C/KM...TO YIELD MLCAPES LOCALLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. WEAKLY ENHANCED LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MULTICELLS OVER NRN AL/NRN GA/ERN TN AREA...RELATIVE TO ELSEWHERE AROUND CIRCULATION ENVELOPE OF LOW. ..EDWARDS.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 05:57:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 00:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507130608.j6D688em017301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130605 SWODY2 SPC AC 130604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND EXPAND SWD INTO NRN SD BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS CONVECTION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVES EWD INTO NW MN. PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-TROUGH IN CNTRL CANADA WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 06:59:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 01:59:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507130710.j6D7APAG008818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130705 SWODY2 SPC AC 130704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 20 N STC 15 NNE FSD 25 E AKO LIC 10 N LHX 25 SW GCK TOP 25 S MKE 65 ESE OSC ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 30 NW SOW 30 NE U17 30 SSE EVW 40 W BPI 20 ENE JAC 55 E BIL 65 NNE ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND EXPAND SWD INTO NRN SD BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS CONVECTION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVES EWD INTO NW MN. PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-TROUGH IN CNTRL CANADA WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:22:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:22:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507131732.j6DHWti4006968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131731 SWODY2 SPC AC 131730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ELO BRD ATY HON PIR MBG 75 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL AUG BAF 30 N MSV UCA MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 70 N TUS INW GUP 55 ENE DRO RWL RIW 25 NNE WEY LVM BIL MLS GDV SDY 60 N ISN ...CONT... 60 NNE CMX IWD SPW SUX OFK MCK 55 ENE LAA LBL GAG END BVO COU STL HOP 50 NW CSV 45 WNW TRI 35 E 5I3 CRW 25 SW ZZV CMH 50 WSW FWA SBN GRR 65 SE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND AND NRN/ERN NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN MN AND ERN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD FROM SASK AND NRN MT TO MN AND NWRN ONT BY 15/12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IS PROGGED AMPLITUDE...RECENT RUNS OF OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...AS WELL AS 09Z SREF MEMBERS -- ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SRN PORTION OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN QUE EARLY IN PERIOD...CROSSING NERN NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THEREAFTER. IN SRN STREAM...BLOCKING GREAT BASIN HIGH AND BROAD/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER LOWER OH VALLEY EACH SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT POSITIONS. AT SFC...DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE LOWER OH VALLEY CYCLONE -- REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS -- AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH NRN STREAM TROUGH. EASTERN FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NERN NY...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SWD OVER ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NRN PORTION OF REMAINS OF DENNIS. OVER NRN PLAINS...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND AND WRN SD EARLY IN PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD ACROSS NERN/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO BY 15/12Z. ...ERN/NERN NY...NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR BOWS WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HINDER SFC HEATING IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY IN DAY. HOWEVER...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXPECT 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND INSOLATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION AS QUE TROUGH APPROACHES. WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY EXCEPT INVOF ANY OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT MAY LINGER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 15/00Z BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND POSTFRONTAL CAA. ...NRN PLAINS... TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH TIME OVER WARM SECTOR..AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM W...CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ONLY SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...INDICATING LARGELY LINEAR OR SEGMENT CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WIND IS PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH INTENSE SFC HEATING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH FRONTAL LIFT TO INITIATE TSTMS FARTHER S OVER SD/NEB...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WHILE CAPPING INCREASES. THERFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECOME MARGINAL SWWD THROUGH THAT AREA AND TOWARD CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS... SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE IS FCST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM OH VALLEY CYCLONE ACROSS AR AND N TX...POTENTIALLY SERVING AS ENHANCED FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD SERVE AS NRN BOUND FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIR MASS S OF THAT BOUNDARY AND INVOF SFC ROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLY HEATED DURING AFTERNOON...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. MESOSCALE/MULTICELL CONCENTRATIONS OF TSTMS MAY BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS MOVING SLOWLY AROUND SRN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 05:50:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 00:50:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507140601.j6E61qMP018396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140559 SWODY2 SPC AC 140559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ANW 25 NNW BFF 25 NNE DGW 20 NNE GCC 35 W REJ 40 SE REJ 45 SE MBG 60 E FAR 25 SW ELO 45 WNW IWD 55 NNE EAU 35 SSE FSD 35 S ANW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 SSW PWM ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 30 SE P38 45 SSW MLD BIL 35 E MLS 50 SW DIK 10 W Y22 50 NNE MBG 35 SSW TVF 35 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN ERN WY AND SRN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN ERN WY. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN SD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM. AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS ERN SD...MN AND NRN WI...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 17:31:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 12:31:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507141743.j6EHhFvL004479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141741 SWODY2 SPC AC 141740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DGW 10 N GCC 35 W REJ 40 SSW Y22 40 WNW PIR 35 NW VTN 25 WNW MHN BFF 20 NNE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 SE P38 40 SSW MLD 50 SW MQM 45 WSW 27U 50 E S80 15 SSW MSO 25 SW HVR 40 N HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 20 W P24 15 WSW BIS 25 W JMS 25 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SWD LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EXITING THIS REGION TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A MORE NEWD TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION... A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN RIDGE...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. STRENGTHENING HEIGHT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL W/NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM NERN MN SWWD TO WRN NEB/ NERN CO AT 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN MT/ERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED ATOP THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN WY INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ATOP THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SSELY LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CANADA AND SUBSEQUENT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH A FEW MULTICELLS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 05:29:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 00:29:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507150541.j6F5fFP2020464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150538 SWODY2 SPC AC 150537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 20 S GFK 45 ENE MBG 30 S PHP 35 ENE CDR 20 NW CDR 45 W RAP 45 WSW REJ 10 W 4BQ 35 NW SHR 45 SW BIL 15 NNE 3HT 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FHU 45 W SAD 25 SSW FLG 25 SSE BCE 35 ENE SLC 15 NNW WEY 20 WNW BTM 50 S FCA 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO 50 NE ATY 40 E ANW 30 SW MCK 20 W AMA 30 WNW HOB 50 ESE GDP 25 SW FST 70 SW SJT 40 WNW SEP 10 E PRX FSM 30 N JLN 15 ENE FLV 30 NW LWD 30 WSW ALO 30 NE LSE 95 NNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC NW FRI NIGHT THEN EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE COMING IN SEVERAL PARTS WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DAKS AS EARLY AS SAT AFTN. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL STALL AND RETURN NWD FRI NIGHT/SAT AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREAD EWD. A LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD INTENSIFY AND MIGRATE INTO WRN ND/SD SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CNTRL MT LATE SAT AFTN...WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING SEWD INTO CNTRL ND...NWRN SD AND WY LATE SAT. VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/ PLAINS ON SAT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH DRYLINE ACROSS THE DAKS. BUT...60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH THE STOUT EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE FIRST IN CANADA...THEN DEVELOP SEPARATELY OR BACKBUILD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND LATE SAT AFTN...IF SUFFICIENT CINH EROSION CAN OCCUR. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE VERY LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PROLONGED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT LATE SAT AFTN AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS EWD. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT INTO ND. INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. OTHER HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S...PROBABLY DEVELOPING IN THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MOVING EWD INTO SWRN SD/NWRN NEB SAT EVE. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND INSTABILITY LESS THAN FARTHER N. THUS...STORMS MAY BE MORE MULTICELL IN THE SPECTRUM WITH POSSIBLE PULSE-TYPE SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..RACY.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 17:18:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 12:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507151730.j6FHU8qi015459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151728 SWODY2 SPC AC 151726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 W RRT 35 NNE JMS 45 ENE MBG 30 S PHP 35 ENE CDR 20 NW CDR 45 W RAP 45 WSW REJ 25 NW SHR 15 SE BIL 60 ESE LWT 40 W GGW 55 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FHU 45 W SAD 25 SSW FLG 25 SSE BCE 35 ENE SLC 15 NNW WEY 20 WNW BTM 50 S FCA 55 NNE FCA ...CONT... 20 E INL 50 NE ATY 25 N LBF 20 SSW IML 20 W AMA 30 WNW HOB 50 ESE GDP 25 SW FST 70 SW SJT 40 WNW SEP 45 SW ADM 25 W FSM 30 N JLN 30 S OMA 10 WSW SPW 20 WSW RST 35 N EAU 120 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN CANADA/PAC NW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ESE ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF 40-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO FAR NRN ND/SRN CANADA BY 17/00Z. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD AND REACHING WRN ND TO SERN/SRN MT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED OVER SERN MT/NWRN SD AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW INTO CO. 25-30 KT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEB TO ND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REACHING INTO ND/NRN MN AS A COUPLE OF WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARIES RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONTS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO NWRN MN AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF ND...AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER SRN CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER. FARTHER S...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-WRN ND INTO MT. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONTS OVER WRN/CENTRAL ND. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND N OF THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT INTO ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO 12Z SUNDAY. ..PETERS.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 05:39:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 00:39:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507160550.j6G5osst005747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160548 SWODY2 SPC AC 160547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 N CMX 25 SSW CMX 30 SSW CWA 15 S FNB 25 E RSL 20 WNW GCK 10 S LHX 25 SW PUB 45 WNW COS 20 E 4FC 35 ENE FCL 25 E SNY 20 W BBW 20 SE MHE 20 N ATY 10 N FAR 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 15 SW TUS 35 NNE TUS 45 S INW 50 SSW 4BL 10 S GJT 30 SW CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 45 SSW PIR 25 NNE PIR 25 E MBG 45 NNW MBG 15 NE Y22 60 NNW REJ 25 SW GDV 30 NW OLF 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 25 SSW BWD 30 WSW ADM 50 NW MLC 45 E BVO 40 N SGF 20 SSW SZL 30 SSE EMP 20 S P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 15 ESE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... SIXTY TO 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW TROUGH WILL SWING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING WRN MN AND SERN SD BY EARLY SUN AFTN. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE GIVEN MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING. WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY CAPPED...BUT AS STRONG LINEAR FORCING/ASCENT APPROACH THE INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MID-AFTN SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE BACKED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW W.R.T. THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS/UPPER MS VLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH A LESSENING SEVERE RISK WITH TIME. FARTHER SW...A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SAGGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN NEB AND IN THE INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. ACROSS THESE AREAS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS PASS N OF THE REGION. BUT...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SINCE THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT/EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RISKS OF HAIL/WIND MAY VERY WELL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...CNTRL GRTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST... AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ON SUN...THE WEAK UPPER LOW RESIDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE OWING TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F AND H5 TEMPERATURES MINUS 7-8C. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UPS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING PEAK HEATING. ..RACY.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 17:15:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 12:15:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507161727.j6GHR1v3015545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161725 SWODY2 SPC AC 161724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 NNE CMX 35 WNW MQT 35 ENE VOK 35 SSE OTM 15 NNW ICT 20 E LBL 55 SSE LHX 40 NW TAD 45 WNW COS 20 E 4FC 40 ENE DEN 50 ESE AKO 20 W EAR 20 SE MHE 20 N ATY 10 N FAR 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 25 SSW BWD 30 WSW ADM 50 NW MLC 45 E BVO 40 N SGF 55 SW SZL 20 W CNU 30 SSE P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 25 NW TUS 55 E PHX 30 WSW INW 50 SSW 4BL 10 S GJT 30 SW CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 45 SSW PIR 25 NNE PIR 25 E MBG 45 NNW MBG 15 NE Y22 60 NNW REJ 25 SW GDV 30 NW OLF 65 NNE GGW ...CONT... 50 N BML 15 ESE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...REACHING AN ERN WI/NRN MO/NRN NM LINE BY 18/12Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD... WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI/IA/ERN NEB. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MN AND EXTREME ERN SD...THEN DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN NEB AND NWRN IA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVE TO THE FRONT FAVORS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 04-06Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ERN CO... THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF KS INTO ERN CO. INITIALLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOA -6C/ WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE SRN END OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT INTO PARTS OF KS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROMOTE FORMATION OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ORIENTED IN A SLOW MOVING BAND ACROSS KS INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 05:07:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507170519.j6H5JUac000652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170517 SWODY2 SPC AC 170516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 20 NW ZZV 40 SE DAY 30 SSW BMG 10 SSE SLO 25 S SPI 25 SSE MMO 20 ESE MKG 55 NNE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 25 SSE TUS 35 NE TUS 50 WNW SAD 35 W SOW 40 W GUP 10 SE FMN 35 SE MTJ 35 ESE CAG 25 WSW CYS 35 WNW AKO 35 E LIC 50 ESE GLD 35 N CNK 35 NW DSM 10 SSW EAU 20 SW IWD 80 E ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MIDWEST... ...CNTRL GRTLKS SWWD TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GRTLKS REGION BY MON EVE. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY MON AND BE SITUATED FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 00Z TUE. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN PLAINS PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH EARLY MON AS STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT/LLJ TRANSLATE NWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO LWR MI AND INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL IL AND IND. ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE...THOUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /LESS THAN 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM/. NONETHELESS... PRESENCE OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODEST BUOYANCY BY MID-AFTN. THOUGH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION. BOTH SPEED/ DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS THE UPPER JET PEELS INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY. BUT...THE DEEP WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AOA 30 KTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME MON NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER GRTLKS AND OH VLY. FARTHER SW...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. HERE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FARTHER N. FURTHERMORE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY BECOME DIVERGENT...LESSENING CONVERGENCE BY LATE AFTN. THUS...WHILE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEAR LOW ATTM. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST NCEP SREF/NAM/GFS PAINT A MORE UNCERTAIN PICTURE CONCERNING SEVERE TSTMS PROBABILITIES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MON AFTN/EVE. SELY UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 20-25 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT...GIVEN INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING CAPPED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS SHOULD HUG THE FRONT RANGE/MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AND WHAT COULD END UP BEING LESS TSTM COVERAGE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT LEVELS. ..RACY.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 16:59:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 11:59:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507171711.j6HHB4D9031698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171708 SWODY2 SPC AC 171707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW YNG 20 S MFD 35 NW LUK 20 SW MDH 30 ENE VIH 35 SSW UIN 40 WSW PIA 40 NE MKE 20 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 35 W SOW 40 W GUP 10 SE FMN 35 SE MTJ 30 W 4FC 15 S FCL 30 SW AKO 35 E LIC 50 ESE GLD 35 NE CNK 15 N DSM 45 WSW CWA 35 N RHI 45 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BEFORE LIFTING ENEWD INTO NERN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY EXTENDING BY 00Z FROM NRN LAKE HURON..LOWER MI..CENTRAL IL..SWRN MO..TX PANHANDLE THEN NNWWD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. ...GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY... SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN UPR MI ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WI AND IA INTO NRN MO AND KS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERMIT AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 90F DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MI/WRN OH SWWD ACROSS IL INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO. STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL AUGMENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION OF HEATING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI..IN..OH..IL INTO ERN MO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...ERN CO INTO NERN NM AND WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES... LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/NERN NM/SWRN KS AND THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. IN ADDITION...PREDICTED WIND PROFILES INDICATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO NWLY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM OUTPUT FROM THE SREF. 12Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR THE ERN SLOPES OF CO AND NM BUT THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE PROCESSES IN BMJ PARAMETERIZATION THAT EXCESSIVELY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BELOW 500 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS OUTLOOK BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. ..WEISS.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 05:39:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 00:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507180551.j6I5pDjW012734@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180548 SWODY2 SPC AC 180548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 50 S FLG 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 10 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 35 SSW LHX 45 SW CAO 45 E TCC AMA 50 NNE CSM 45 NNE JLN 45 ENE JEF 20 S LAF 50 NNW MFD 65 NW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CMX 40 SW IWD 25 SE MKT 35 NE SUX 15 ESE ANW 30 WNW VTN 15 SSE PHP 60 N PHP BIS 45 N MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CROSS THE GRTLKS REGION MON...THEN EJECT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA WHILE WEAKENING ON TUE. SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...REACHING WRN NY EARLY TUE AFTN...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE NERN STATES ON TUE...OWING PARTIALLY TO REMNANTS OF DENNIS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB 6 DEG C PER KM/ ACROSS THE REGION. BUOYANCY WILL BE LARGELY MODULATED BY MAGNITUDE OF INSOLATION AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT DEEP BUT SKINNY CAPE. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT MORE LIKELY ALONG LEE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. STRONGER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SERN CANADA WITH H5 WINDS GENERALLY AOB 25 KTS FARTHER S. RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT LIMITED HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN TROPICAL NATURE TO THE AIR MASS. IF A TSTM CLUSTER CAN BECOME ORIENTED N-S...THE WSWLY MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BOWING STRUCTURES WITH PERHAPS A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. THE SEVERE THREATS DO NOT SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ...NRN PLAINS... THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF ARE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINLY PASS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST H5 WINDS WILL SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKS TUE AFTN AND A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD...PROBABLY REACHING FAR NRN MN/ND BY WED MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH TUE...BENEATH A STRENGTHENING EML. THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODELS/NCEP SREF THAT ISOLD SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED BANDS OF TSTMS TO FORM DOWNSTREAM FROM CAP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MN AND THE ERN DAKS OVERNIGHT TUE...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM...40-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...GIVEN AMPLE CAPE-BEARING SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON THE PROSPECTS FOR DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT...OR HOW WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NCEP SREF SUGGESTS. ...DEEP S TX... OFFICIAL NHC FCST HAS HURCN EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS TAMAULIPAS STATE IN MEXICO...AROUND 100 NM S OF KBRO BY LATE TUE NIGHT. OUTER BANDS OF THE HURCN WILL LIKELY REACH DEEP S TX TUE EVE. THOUGH HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER NERN MEXICO...THE THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO ACROSS DEEP S TX GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. ..RACY.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 05:59:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 00:59:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507190611.j6J6B4xK028632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190609 SWODY2 SPC AC 190607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE APN 20 WNW HTL 40 SSW MKE 15 SSE DBQ 45 NNE DSM 30 ENE SUX 25 ENE FSD 50 SSW AXN 45 WSW CMX 125 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE COD 40 WSW COD 20 SSE DLN 45 W MSO 75 ENE 63S 45 N FCA 60 W GTF 30 N LVM 45 WNW SHR 35 W SHR 30 SSE COD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER 30 ENE SAC 40 SE RBL 35 NE RBL 60 E MHS 50 SE 4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY 30 NNW DRA 35 WSW LAS 45 NNW EED 60 SSE SGU 45 W 4HV 15 ENE VEL 35 NE CAG 15 NNE FCL 25 NNW LIC 35 WSW LHX 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV 15 ENE SZL 10 S LWD 25 S OLU 50 ENE ANW 20 SW ABR 20 W FAR 15 NW INL ...CONT... 20 W CLE 20 W EKN 40 NNE RIC 15 N WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION... ...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION... LARGELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD DIG SEWD INTO SRN ALTA...THEN STREAK EWD INTO NWRN ONT BY WED AFTN. SRN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE UPPER MS VLY FROM LATE TUE INTO WED EVE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE WED. BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MN LATE TUE /DAY 1 PERIOD/ AND BE ONGOING EARLY WED ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. IT APPEARS THAT THE LLJ/NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND MOVE NWD INTO ONT...IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THUS...THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SHOULD BE LEFT TO WARM CONSIDERABLY. PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THOUGH THE MAIN PVA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA...H5 FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK...ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT AND ANTICIPATED HEATING WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION. STORMS WILL DEVELOP MOST RAPIDLY IN THE WEAKER CAP OVER THE UPPER GRTLKS...WITH LESSER COVERAGE FARTHER W. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. BUT...WSWLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AID IN EVOLUTION INTO SW-NE ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD BOW AS THEY MATURE AND TRANSLATE ACROSS WI TOWARD MI OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME/EWD EXTENT. THE WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BLOWING FROM A HIGH LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING TSTMS LATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/SRN MN. THESE STORMS WOULD MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ...SRN AZ... AS THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES E-W...ENELY H7-H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AOA 25 KTS ACROSS SRN AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...OWING TO THE UPSWING IN DAILY CONVECTION SINCE THE WEEKEND. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN PROPAGATE SWWD TOWARD PHX/TUS DURING THE EVE WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED...PENDING DAY 1 TSTM EVOLUTION AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE. ...S TX... REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE WWD INTO NERN MEXICO THROUGH WED. WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE STRONGER WINDS COLLAPSE TO THE CENTER. BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS S TX WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 17:17:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 12:17:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507191728.j6JHSZVC016846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191726 SWODY2 SPC AC 191725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ANJ 25 NNW HTL 10 S MKE 25 NNW BRL 40 SSE OMA 15 ESE OLU 30 N YKN 50 NW RWF 25 NW IWD 115 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CLE 45 WNW EKN 40 NNE RIC 15 N WAL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV JLN 50 S OJC 35 SSE TOP 25 SE SLN 40 S RSL 45 S HLC 30 SSE MCK 40 SSW BBW 45 NE ANW 25 NW HON 15 SSE FAR 15 NW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER 50 WNW RBL 20 E CEC 45 ESE OTH 60 ESE EUG 40 S RDM 25 NNW 4LW 40 ESE 4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY 30 NNW DRA 25 ESE DRA 25 E LAS 60 SSE SGU 60 SE PGA 35 NE 4BL 20 SSE CAG 10 SE FCL 30 ENE LIC 15 WNW LAA 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE WI/MN/IA AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD MN/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN SD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP SWD WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 20/12Z INVOF MN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NW IA AREA ON THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON...WHILE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...SRN AZ... ELY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH FORMING OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE RIM/MOUNTAINS OF SE AZ TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LOW-LEVEL WLY/SWLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL ELY FLOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A PORTION OF SRN AZ MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES. ...DEEP S TX... HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NE MEXICO EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER TOMORROW. RESIDUAL STRONG FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER S TX DURING THE DAY...WHERE RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW...DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFIC TRACK/INTENSITY OF EMILY NEAR AND AFTER LANDFALL. ..THOMPSON.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 05:46:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 00:46:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507200558.j6K5wKKc028303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200555 SWODY2 SPC AC 200554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE LNR 10 W BEH 10 SSW FWA 45 ESE IND 30 NNW SDF 20 ENE MVN 30 NNW STL 25 N OTM 20 NNW ALO 35 SSE RST 10 NNE LNR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ELO 15 SW MSP FSD 20 S 9V9 30 NE PIR 60 SE JMS 25 SE GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CZZ 30 SE RAL 25 ENE OXR 15 ENE SMX 25 E PRB 45 WNW BFL 35 NNE BFL 40 NE FAT 25 SSW TVL 40 WNW TVL 50 SW SVE 30 N RBL 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 25 WNW PDX 20 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKO 25 SE OJC FNB 45 SW EAR 15 NNW GLD CAO 35 SW HOB 55 NNE P07 25 SSW SEP 35 ENE DUA 35 NE MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW EPM 25 S MWN 10 SW POU 25 SW DOV 35 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN RED RVR VLY INTO MN... ...NRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON THU WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS ALONG THE NRN TIER AND CANADA. WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NERN THIRD OF THE NATION BY EARLY FRI. EACH IMPULSE THAT MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL HAVE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS THAT SETTLE SWD...LIKELY AUGMENTED BY TSTM CLUSTERS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AND MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...AIDED BY WSWLY LLJ. THE UPPER IMPULSE TIED TO THE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 ACTIVITY WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE DAY...RESULTING IN WEAKENING LLJ/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD FROM LOWER MI TOWARD THE UPPER OH VLY DURING THE AFTN. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /REMOVED FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN CANADA/. BUT...MULTICELL CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. FARTHER W...PERSISTENT /BUT WEAK/ WLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE PLAINS. TRAILING PORTION OF THE OUTFLOWS MAY BE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION WHERE LOCAL CONVERGENCE BREECHES THE CAP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY COULD ALSO CONGEAL AND PROPAGATE SEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS GOING AGAINST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...NAMELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THUS...HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK ATTM. GIVEN SHORT WAVELENGTHS...NEXT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA BY LATE FRI AFTN. RAPID RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD ADVECT VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STOUT CAP...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN RED RVR VLY INTO PARTS OF NWRN MN. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS. ...SWRN STATES... TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE FRI. ELY FLOW AOA 20 KTS AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE LOWER CO RVR VLY LATER IN THE EVENING. ...PAC NW... AS MID-LEVEL WAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM OFF THE PAC COAST...A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD FROM SRN CA. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HEATING ALONG THE CASCADES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN. DEEP S-SWLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN...OR MOVE OFF THE EAST. VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND ENEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN WA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NEWD. ..RACY.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 17:22:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 12:22:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507201734.j6KHYD85014764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201731 SWODY2 SPC AC 201730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CMX 45 W RHI 30 NNW RST 30 NE MCW 45 NE ALO 20 SSW MSN 25 W BEH 15 SSW FWA 40 NNE SDF 25 NNE BWG CKV 40 SW PAH 25 ESE VIH 55 SW IRK 10 SE FNB 20 NNW EAR 35 SSW ANW 15 SE MBG 40 S DVL 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MKO 35 N CNU MHK 45 ESE AKO 15 WSW LIC 25 NNW TAD 20 NNW CNM 55 NNE P07 25 SSW SEP 30 NE DUA 30 NNE MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW EPM 25 S MWN 10 SW POU 25 SW DOV 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 55 N S80 75 WSW BOI 35 NNE WMC 25 S EKO 15 E ENV 20 WSW JAC 45 ESE LVM 25 W MLS 40 NNE REJ 20 NE Y22 25 NE BIS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 S CZZ 30 SE RAL 25 ENE OXR 15 ENE SMX 25 E PRB 45 WNW BFL 35 NNE BFL 40 NE FAT 45 N FAT 35 WSW TVL 60 SE RBL 35 SSW RBL 40 NNW UKI 25 SSE EKA 40 SSE OTH 25 WNW PDX 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN.... ...NRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA... A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL EXPAND EWD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAINING NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ONE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ONTARIO...WITH A SRN EXTENSION OVER WRN WI...WILL MOVE EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC AND LOSE AMPLITUDE...WHILE A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS FROM ROUGHLY OH TO NEB. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD NRN MN/WI. THE SCENARIO FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE AFFECTS OF ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL FORM AND MOVE SEWD TOMORROW ACROSS IL/IND/KY. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER NW...OTHER STORM CLUSTERS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NEB...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. LASTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION AND A FEW LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND EVENTS BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN...WITH CONVECTION AND SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD NW WI LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN AZ AREA... ELY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ TO THE S/SW OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE BEEN MOISTENING ACROSS SRN AZ THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHILE A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER W TX SHOULD MOVE WWD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SRN AZ TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM PROPAGATION WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH THE 30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SRN AZ AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES...PENDING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...ORE CASCADES AREA... UPSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HIGH...A MID LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 35 N AND 133 W WILL EJECT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE TO WRN ORE BY LATE THURSDAY. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY ACROSS THE PAC NW...THE EJECTING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME NOW SPREADING WNWWD OVER SRN NV/SE CA. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE...ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS WRN ORE. ..THOMPSON.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 05:39:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 00:39:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507210551.j6L5pVUU016878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210549 SWODY2 SPC AC 210548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW VTN 35 WSW PHP 40 NNE REJ 20 ESE DIK 50 ESE BIS 50 NNW ABR 10 S ATY 20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 40 N ANW 25 NNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SAN 15 SE RAL 25 S PMD 35 NNE SBA 40 E MRY 30 W MER 35 E SAC 50 SW SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 SW LMT 35 NW MFR 15 NW EUG 35 S OLM 65 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 60 S DLH 20 SW EAU 20 SE LNR 35 WNW CGX 30 WSW BEH 10 SW AZO 30 W MBS 80 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FST 35 E SJT 10 NW FTW 40 WNW FYV 15 SSE OJC 35 NNW FNB 20 WSW OLU 30 WNW LBF 30 WSW AKO 45 NW TAD 40 N 4CR 50 NNW GDP 15 ENE FST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND SD... ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW NOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SRN CANADA WLYS...ACTING TO FLATTEN NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH ON FRI. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD FROM THE DESERT SW. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN ID ACROSS PARTS OF MT. MEANWHILE...THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE IN THE SREF/ETA/GFS THAT TSTMS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION FRI AFTN. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED INITIALLY BUT COULD ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD DURING THE EVE. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE INCREASING LLJ WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SWRN STATES... NRN EXTENT OF REMNANT EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NWRN MEXICO/AZ ON FRI AFTN/EVE. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE INJECTION OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /CLOUDS-PCPN/ WILL REDUCE INSOLATION OVER MOST OF AZ ON FRI. MOREOVER...IT APPEARS WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE...ACTING TO POTENTIALLY CAP SURFACE BASED PARCELS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HOWEVER... TSTMS WILL BUILD ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE WWD OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SWRN AZ/ SRN CA WHERE LOW-LEVELS COULD BE MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL RESEMBLE INVERTED-V STRUCTURES...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY IN THESE IMPORTANT VARIABLES PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...NERN STATES... SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR AS GREAT AS MODELS INDICATED EARLY IN THE WEEK. DIFFICULT-TO-TIME MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRAZE NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND/NY IN WAKE OF ONE IMPULSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE SEWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH SAT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OH VLY ON FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS OVER QUE. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF MAINE ON FRI. AT LEAST WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/LEE-TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN TSTM INITIATION. GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT... ISOLD PULSE TYPE SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL. THREATS SEEM TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..RACY.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:22:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:22:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507211734.j6LHYhiW016798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 35 SE DVL 45 ENE ABR 25 ESE MHE 60 W YKN 45 WNW VTN 20 NNW CDR 70 SSE 81V 25 SSE GCC 20 WNW 4BQ 35 SW GDV 20 ESE SDY 60 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IPL 15 NE TRM 55 W EED 40 S LAS 40 NNE IGM 60 NNW PRC 30 NNE PHX 75 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FST 35 E SJT 10 NW FTW 40 WNW FYV 15 SSE OJC 35 NNW FNB 20 WSW OLU 30 WNW LBF 30 WSW AKO 45 NW TAD 40 N 4CR 50 NNW GDP 15 ENE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SAN 10 WSW RAL 25 S PMD 35 NNE SBA 40 E MRY 30 W MER 35 E SAC 50 SW SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 SW LMT 35 NW MFR 15 NW EUG 35 S OLM 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 60 S DLH 20 SW EAU 20 SE LNR 35 WNW CGX 30 WSW BEH 10 SW AZO 30 W MBS 80 NE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER BAND OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. PACIFIC TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. IN THE EAST...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES. IN THE SOUTHWEST...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING WWD AND INTO AZ ON DAY 2. AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE TROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THEN NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...NERN WY/SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... MODELS DIFFER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AT 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...WITH CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE WRN STATES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN DAKOTAS BY 23/00Z IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS LEAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EMILY WILL SPREAD ACROSS AZ ON FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MAINLY ERN AZ EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED SOME BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION...SUPPORTING STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN AZ INTO ERN PORTION OF SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CA...WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE WWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS... THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE ONGOING MCS... CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN LAKE MI...WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 23/00Z. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD WITHIN NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN RIDGE. AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NEWD ALONG THE OH/TN VALLEYS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NJ AND NERN STATES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE OH MCS TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. FARTHER SW...WEAK ASCENT WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER...BUT AT LEAST 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WOULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...NEW ENGLAND... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 06:03:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 01:03:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507220615.j6M6FlUG031907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220614 SWODY2 SPC AC 220613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E APN 10 W OSC 30 WNW MBL 40 S LSE 35 SW SPW 20 ESE YKN 15 ENE MHE 25 NNE ATY 35 SSE GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MTC DTW 40 SW FDY 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 35 WSW JAC 35 SE MQM 60 E S80 55 NNE S80 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 NNE DRT 50 SSW CDS 15 SSW CSM 10 S JLN 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST / LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN U.S. / SRN CANADA THIS PERIOD...WHILE LARGE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ATLANTIC. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE BRINGS A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS -- PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS -- SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...MAINTAINED BY STRONG / PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY CAPPING INVERSION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON -- FROM MN WSWWD ACROSS SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION...WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR FRONT AS SECOND BRANCH OF LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG /45 TO 65 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG THE CANADA / U.S. BORDER...WITH SRN EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS SD / SRN MN / THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO ACCOMPANY STORMS / MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST...SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE S OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR APPEARS TO EXIST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR ALLOWING MCS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME GREATER. MEANWHILE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...AS ENE-WSW ORIENTATION OF COLD FRONT WOULD SUGGEST VEERED / SWLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR THUS LIMITING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..GOSS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 17:33:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 12:33:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507221744.j6MHiwR6024670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221741 SWODY2 SPC AC 221740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E APN 10 W OSC 30 WNW MBL 40 S LSE 35 SW SPW 20 ESE YKN 25 WNW MHE 40 E ABR 35 SSE GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MTC DTW 40 SW FDY 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 NNE DRT 50 SSW CDS 15 SSW CSM 10 S JLN 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP ...CONT... 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 35 WSW JAC 35 SE MQM 60 E S80 55 NNE S80 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONGEST BAND OF ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL STATES... WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CANADA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TO UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE AFTER 24/00Z...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS SRN CANADA. PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS AND 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NRN STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ AS IT TRANSLATES EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW...EXPECTED TO HAVE STRONGER DEEPENING SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MAINLY ND IN REGION OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. GIVEN THIS LLJ WILL PERSIST AT SIMILAR STRENGTHS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN MN TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE S OF THE MEAN WIND...GIVEN A STRONG SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THIS REGION. THUS...STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED...POSING A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING THIS CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN SD/WRN MN TOWARD 00Z. A STRONGLY SHEARED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME QUICKLY LINEAR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN INTO WI. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO NRN NEB...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN AN MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... POTENTIALLY MOVING SEWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 05:56:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 00:56:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507230608.j6N68jZT001158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230606 SWODY2 SPC AC 230605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 30 NNE UCA 30 N EWR 20 ENE DOV 35 S MRB 20 WNW EKN 20 SE MIE 10 SW PIA 25 NE FNB 35 SSW EAR 25 SSW SNY 35 NNE CYS 45 NNE CPR 35 N SHR 45 NNE 4BQ 10 SSW REJ 15 SW VTN 55 WSW YKN 25 S FSD 25 SSW MSP 45 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW MRF 30 E CVS 10 S LBL 35 ENE HUT 45 WSW JEF 40 S BMG 45 NNE TYS 30 SE HSV 30 SSW PGO 55 SSW SJT 45 W DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 50 S EKO 55 NE ENV 25 WNW EVW 40 NNE VEL 55 SSE RWL 50 SSE WRL 30 E MQM 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE ISN 45 ESE P24 45 ESE MBG ATY 30 NE BRD 15 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BML PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN 3/4 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAST / FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE NRN 1/4 OF THE U.S. / SRN CANADA. FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THESE WLYS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MANITOBA / ONTARIO THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS NEB SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME AS WRN FRINGES OF BOUNDARY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NY WWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES TO SRN NEB. ...GREAT LAKES REGION / MIDWEST WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS / MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH STORMS LIKELY ELEVATED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N AND E OF LOW / WARM FRONT. THOUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WHERE GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. SHOULD STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS WARM FRONT / INTO WARM SECTOR...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FURTHER W / ALONG COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI WWD INTO NEB / KS. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY WWD INTO THE PLAINS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INVOF BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WHERE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP. WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS N OF BOUNDARY...MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. FINALLY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ATTM TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...THUS LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN WY / WRN SD...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THIS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 17:23:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 12:23:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507231735.j6NHZEw0028113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231733 SWODY2 SPC AC 231732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 30 NNE UCA 30 N EWR 20 ENE DOV 15 SSE DCA 35 NW RIC 25 SW SHD 35 SE UNI 30 S CMH 20 SE MIE 10 SW PIA 25 NE FNB 35 SSW EAR 25 SSW SNY 35 NNE CYS 45 NNE CPR 35 N SHR 45 NNE 4BQ 10 SSW REJ 55 ESE PHP 20 ESE YKN 30 NE MCW VOK 35 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 55 SSW SJT 30 SSW PGO 30 SE HSV 45 NNE TYS 40 S BMG 45 WSW JEF 35 ENE HUT 10 S LBL 30 E CVS 55 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 25 WNW TWF 25 NW LND 55 ENE JAC 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 45 ESE P24 40 WNW ABR 35 ENE ATY 55 SW DLH 65 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 15 ENE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION WWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN 3/4 OF THE WRN-CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW REMAINING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA. ONE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW ALONG THE BC COAST...DIGS SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES BY THE LATTER HALF OF DAY 2. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO IA AND THEN WWD ACROSS NEB AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E ON SUNDAY AS THE NRN PORTION SPREADS EWD REACHING NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING WRN PORTION SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 25/00Z AND INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO LOWER MI...WITH THIS COMPLEX LOCATED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF A 60 KT WLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS LLJ WILL WEAKEN SOME... BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THUS...ONGOING MCS MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY...BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WV TO WRN VA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS... SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS PRODUCING MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NEB INTO SD AND POTENTIALLY EWD TO SRN MN/IA...AS A NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WWD TO NRN UT AREA... NRN EXTENT OF LOWER-MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AIDED BY STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW...BUT FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW MULTICELLS. A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...MID ATLANTIC/GULF COAST STATES WWD TO EAST TX... MODERATE NELY TO ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE ERN TO SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO ERN TX. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL TRANSLATE SW AND W WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE PERTURBATIONS...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 05:58:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 00:58:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507240610.j6O6AkCK006780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240609 SWODY2 SPC AC 240607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BUF 25 SSW JHW ZZV 40 E BMG 15 WNW UIN 20 NW FLV 35 W HLC 15 SSE AKO 35 ESE CYS 55 SSE SHR 40 NE COD 40 ESE BIL 15 SW REJ 15 WSW PHP 15 W MHE 35 NE EAU 15 W PLN 40 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 45 NNW EED 55 W P38 55 NNW P38 10 SW DPG 15 NNW MLD 40 ENE SUN 55 NNE BOI 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CTB 50 SSW HVR 75 NE LWT 30 W SDY 40 NNW P24 25 WNW DVL 45 WNW HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 50 WSW SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX PGO 45 NNW SGF 10 N EMP 50 SSE DDC 60 S LBL 35 N HOB 65 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWESTERN STATES WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN / DIG SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ...GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AND POSSIBLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME OVER THE MO VALLEY...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST / MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...POSING A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON -- INITIALLY FROM WI SSWWD INTO SERN SD / NRN NEB...AS STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS INVOF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI / SEWD ACROSS IA AND NEB WITH TIME...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN EVOLVING ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN SD / WRN NEB / NERN CO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE -- PARTICULARLY FROM WI EWD INTO UPPER MI WITHIN ZONE OF MODERATELY-STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STORMS WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...THOUGH THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...AS FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. ...NEW ENGLAND... NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THOUGH IT BREAKS OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE...WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF OVERACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT NEITHER THE NAMKF RUN NOR THE GFS SHOW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN NEW ENGLAND ATTM. ..GOSS.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 18:40:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 13:40:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507241852.j6OIqTYg000769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241724 SWODY2 SPC AC 241723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BUF 25 SSW JHW ZZV 40 E BMG 15 WNW UIN 20 NW FLV 35 W HLC 15 SSE AKO 35 ESE CYS 55 SSE SHR 40 NE COD 40 ESE BIL 15 SW REJ 25 NW PHP 10 N HON 35 NE EAU 15 W PLN 40 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 50 WSW SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX PGO 45 NNW SGF 10 N EMP 50 SSE DDC 60 S LBL 35 N HOB 65 S MRF ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 45 NNW EED 55 W P38 55 NNW P38 10 SW DPG 15 NNW MLD 40 ENE SUN 55 NNE BOI 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 20 NE DVL 45 WNW HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INLAND OVER BC...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NWRN INTO NORTH CENTRAL STATES. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS ORE/WA...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THIS WEAKENING WAVE...AN ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL BE A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND SE/E TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF ND INTO NWRN SD. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO SRN MN/IA. THE LATTER ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE LLJ DECREASES IN STRENGTH MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE...A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND/OR THE MORNING ND THUNDERSTORM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS A LINEAR FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. FARTHER W...MOIST ENELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT TO WY BENEATH INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MONDAY EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS...MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT 12Z MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS ME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME REMAINS LOW. THUS...WILL NOT ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 05:44:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 00:44:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507250556.j6P5u6c7023451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250553 SWODY2 SPC AC 250552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JFK 25 W CXY 15 NNW JKL 35 WSW BNA 30 SW DYR 50 SSE HRO 25 S PNC 35 ESE ICT 25 WNW COU 35 SSE MMO 20 SSE JXN 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 15 W MSS 20 NNE BTV 15 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CRP 20 W NIR 55 S CLL 25 W POE 20 E HEZ 45 NNW JAN 10 NW GLH 30 NNW GGG 55 SE BWD 15 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW YUM 50 WNW EED 55 NW DRA 55 WNW P38 25 W CDC 20 SE U17 25 W GJT 50 ESE RKS 55 ESE WRL 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW CMX 60 S DLH 35 NNE HON 40 SSE PHP 10 E AIA 15 W IML 50 NNE HLC 40 SSE OMA 40 S ALO 20 SE OSH 25 ESE ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN KS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FRONT IS FASTER / MUCH FURTHER S ACCORDING TO THE NAM THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SWATH OF 35 TO 40 KT FLOW...WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NERN CONUS SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING NEAR FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE / INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. THOUGH COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG STRONG FRONT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WITH SHEAR GENERALLY LIMITED WITHIN WARM SECTOR...STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED / SHORT-LIVED IN GENERAL. SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED OVERALL. GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST FROM PARTS OF IN / OH ACROSS WRN PA INTO NY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONGER FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS MAY YIELD MODERATE / UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY DIURNALLY DECREASES. ...CO FRONT RANGE... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS. WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 05:39:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 00:39:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507260608.j6Q683rK017545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260605 SWODY2 SPC AC 260605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IPL 15 ESE TRM 10 S DAG 45 SSW LAS 45 SSW GCN 75 S 4BL 40 S MTJ 20 E EGE 45 E DGW 55 WSW RAP 40 NNE SHR 25 NE HLN 80 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ 30 WNW GRB 40 NNW VOK 25 N MCW 35 SW OTG 50 W EAR 10 SSE HLC 25 SE LBL 40 ENE TCC 15 N PVW 10 ENE CDS 25 SW OKC 15 SE SGF 15 WNW SLO 20 W CMH 20 E BGM 40 W BGR 20 N CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEY REGION INTO W TX WILL CONTINUE SEWD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SRN TX. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND S TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WW TO THE TN VALLEY... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INVOF FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE CONVECTION. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL...DEGREE OF THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM. ...CO FRONT RANGE... MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST / VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS INVOF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY... WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG FRONT ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AIDED BY MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 16:58:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 11:58:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507271727.j6RHRuhx026245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271726 SWODY2 SPC AC 271725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N INW 50 NE GUP ALS 35 NW FCL CPR RIW EVW 25 NW BCE 50 N INW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IPL 25 NNE LAX NID RNO 4LW BNO 45 ESE EPH 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW DVL JMS ABR 10 NNE BKX MKT 45 N EAU 30 SSE CMX ...CONT... 75 NE MTC MKG 10 SSE RFD 40 ENE P35 FNB 55 N GCK TCC TCS 10 NNW ELP 10 SE MRF TPL 55 WSW TYR 10 NNE TXK PBF 10 E BNA 15 SSW CRW 10 SSW MGW IPT PSF 15 ESE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BEFORE STRONGER WESTERLIES BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...MODELS SUGGEST ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH EASTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING PATTERN...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STALL/WEAKEN...BUT BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM HUMID AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO VICINITY OF NEW SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLATEAU...WITH PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WEAK FLOW/SHEAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS EXPECTED ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/ NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MATERIALIZES. MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS UPPER JET INTENSIFIES FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. BUT...FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT...WELL AFTER ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING/STABILIZATION. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL WARMING/STRENGTHENING OF CAP MAY OCCUR LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AS CAP BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...PROVIDING DOUBT AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME...BUT SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG. ..KERR.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 05:49:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 00:49:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507280618.j6S6IIFL018565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280616 SWODY2 SPC AC 280615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 45 SSW FAT 25 NW TVL 40 SSE MHS CEC 40 SE EUG 20 WNW MSO 20 WNW LWT 20 NE SHR 45 ENE 81V 25 E MLS 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CMX 40 NW RHI 15 SSW MCW 10 E OMA 55 ENE HLC 25 NNE DDC 55 WSW TCC 10 NNW DMN 40 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WNW MRF 55 SE GDP 10 SSE SJT 15 SSE TPL 50 ENE ACT 30 NNW TYR 25 S TXK 40 N MLU 15 S MEM 35 SSW CKV 35 ENE BWG 30 NNW LOZ 10 NE CRW 10 SE MGW PSB 25 S BGM 15 WSW PSF BOS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WHILE SHIFTING EWD. MEANWHILE...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND WITH TIME. SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST -- PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SRN AZ / CA...FROM ORE EWD SRN ID / THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN MT / WRN WY...AND PERHAPS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWD INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INVOF REMNANT FRONT THIS PERIOD...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF VA / NC JUST N OF BOUNDARY AND 10 TO 15 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS...A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ...SRN AZ... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AZ THIS PERIOD...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH SMALL BELT OF 25 KT ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS SRN AZ S OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ...PARTS OF ORE EWD INTO SWRN MT / WRN WY... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAK FEATURES ALOFT ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER HIGH. WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION N OF RIDGE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...NERN ND / NRN MN... AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS MOST THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A GREAT DEGREE. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION / SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND ELEVATED...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS. ..GOSS.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 16:47:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 11:47:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507281716.j6SHGKUs006938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281713 SWODY2 SPC AC 281713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 35 SSW FAT 55 E UKI 50 WNW MHS 60 NNE MFR 10 ENE S80 30 WNW 3HT 40 WNW SHR 25 NE SHR 20 NNE 4BQ 65 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E ELO 40 NNE ALO 25 WNW IRK 10 SW MKC 20 W SLN 50 ENE LAA 10 S 4SL 15 SE GNT 45 WSW ONM ALM 30 S MAF 25 NNW AUS 50 NW POE GLH 15 ENE DYR 35 WSW SDF 25 WNW HLG 25 SSE BGM 20 NNW POU 30 NNE EWB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD OSCILLATE NWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... AN UPPER-RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS AZ AND UT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY IN AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS PROFILES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 2 SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NE ND AND NW MN DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 05:38:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 00:38:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507290607.j6T67870008047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290604 SWODY2 SPC AC 290603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ MTW 20 N MKE MSN LSE MSP STC TVF 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LGB PRB 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 40 NNE 3DU LWT MLS DIK 40 SE P24 65 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNE MBS AZO 35 NW LAF SPI STJ RSL 35 SSE RTN ROW INK JCT 35 NNE SAT 30 S CLL POE ESF UOX 10 E JKL EKN HGR 20 NW TTN 20 SW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITH MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN ESEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER HIGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN ELY AND SLY FLOW ALOFT/MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW NWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ...UPPER MIDWEST... AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO TX WILL PREVENT RICHER GULF MOISTURE FROM SPREADING NWD....WITH DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY LIKELY OVER ESTIMATED ON NAM. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER/MID 60 DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MN/NWRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WARM MID TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY AND AIR MASS SHOULD BE CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SLIGHT LOWERING IN HEIGHTS SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTHENING NWLY WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 500-300 MB INDICATE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD FROM MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. ...PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND IA... MODELS INDICATE THAT IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM WY INTO SRN SD/NEB LATE SATURDAY WITHIN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN A DEEP AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ...ERN COAST STATES FROM DELMARVA SWD INTO GA... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALOFT...THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS. ...AZ/SRN CA... DIFFICULT TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN 20-25 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WINDS ALOFT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE WWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS. IF THIS OCCURS...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE-600 MB WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 16:25:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 11:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507291654.j6TGsA22010746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291651 SWODY2 SPC AC 291651 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ANJ 15 W TVC 15 SW OSH 25 ENE LSE 15 SE STC 25 SW AXN 20 SE ABR 20 SE MBG 45 SSW BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LGB 45 ESE PRB 40 NE MRY 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 35 SSW GDV 35 WNW DIK 40 NW P24 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 35 E SBN 25 NNE BMI IRK RSL 35 W CAO 50 SE LVS ROW INK JCT 35 NNE SAT 30 S CLL 45 E LFK 10 NE ELD 25 WNW MEM 20 NNW JKL 25 SSW AOO 40 ENE CXY 25 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ONE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ID EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY REACH THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. OTHER STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD ACROSS MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB WITH VERY WARM SFC TEMPS AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT AND LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM SUGGEST HIGH-BASED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...NRN MN AND NRN WI WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WRN US WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY ANY SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND NRN CO AND MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. HOWEVER...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MATURE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SW DESERTS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS STORMS INITIATE IN THE WHITE MTNS AND ON THE MOGOLLON RIM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ELY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CELLS TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY INTO THE DESERTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 05:28:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 00:28:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507300557.j6U5vKTU012514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300553 SWODY2 SPC AC 300552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ MER 40 SE UKI 35 ESE EKA MFR 50 ESE RDM S80 MSO LWT 80 WNW MLS 55 SSW OLF 60 N OLF ...CONT... CLE FDY RFD 35 S RST 40 NW DSM CNK LBL AMA BGS DRT ...CONT... 40 SW PSX VCT 30 SSE CLL 20 SE LFK MLU MEM LOZ 5I3 MGW UCA ALB BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE WESTERLYS AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY LOCATED IN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STREAM NWWD FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SW AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...GREAT LAKES AREA AND MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB... VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AND ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/NRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AROUND 20 KT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT MICROBURSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 05:52:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 00:52:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507300621.j6U6Lk7l018286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300620 SWODY2 SPC AC 300619 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ MER 40 SE UKI 35 ESE EKA MFR 50 ESE RDM S80 MSO LWT 80 WNW MLS 55 SSW OLF 60 N OLF ...CONT... CLE FDY RFD 35 S RST 40 NW DSM CNK LBL AMA BGS DRT ...CONT... 40 SW PSX VCT 30 SSE CLL 20 SE LFK MLU MEM LOZ 5I3 MGW UCA ALB BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO CHANGE MONDAY TO SUNDAY IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE WESTERLYS AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY LOCATED IN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STREAM NWWD FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SW AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...GREAT LAKES AREA AND MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB... VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AND ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/NRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AROUND 20 KT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT MICROBURSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 16:26:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 11:26:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507301655.j6UGtHxc014099@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301652 SWODY2 SPC AC 301652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E APN 10 S PLN 30 S IMT 30 NNW EAU 15 ESE STC 20 WSW BRD 30 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 40 NW VCT 20 W CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 30 SSW FKL 25 SSW ERI 50 NNE CLE ...CONT... 20 SSE MTC 20 NNE AZO 40 W RFD 20 SSW FNB 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 20 NE GDP 30 SW P07 ...CONT... 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 35 ENE 4BK 50 ENE EUG 15 SSW GEG 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 55 WNW HVR 55 WNW HVR 55 SE HVR 80 NNE BIL 55 NE DGW 25 NE CDR 50 SSE PHP 15 NW PIR 30 SSE BIS 75 NE ISN ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 E BML 30 ENE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND NRN MI... ...UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...BUILDING SLIGHTLY NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY A SPECIFIC DISTURBANCE...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS MAY FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MN. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WI AND MI. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS STRONG AS FORECAST. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...THE STORMS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S F SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY REMAINS AND THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. IF A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 05:22:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 00:22:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507310551.j6V5pOpt020882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310548 SWODY2 SPC AC 310547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ FAT 35 ESE SAC RBL MFR 40 WSW RDM PDT 30 WSW PUW 30 N 63S ...CONT... 35 NNE MTC MBS GRB 65 ENE STC AXN 20 NW ATY 35 NNW VTN 40 ESE AIA LHX 25 SSE ELP ...CONT... 15 SE CRP 35 NNW NIR 45 SW CLL 45 NE LFK 30 SW GLH 30 SW MEM 20 E MKL 30 E BWG 25 ESE LOZ 20 S BLF 40 WSW RIC 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... ACY 15 WSW ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN WRN AND ERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY SWD AND MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND. AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WHILE A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD AID IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ...NY AND NEW ENGLAND... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER....MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS MT/ND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM. A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 550 MB DOES RESULT IN SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 25 KT ALONG WITH 40-50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SPARSE...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY IS FORECAST. ..WRN MT/ID AND ERN ORE... SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM EXTREME WRN MT SWWD INTO SRN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS THROUGH VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS ALOFT. ..IMY.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 16:36:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 11:36:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507311705.j6VH5DSY002345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311702 SWODY2 SPC AC 311701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 35 W TPL 10 W PBF 50 N JKL 25 E PKB 20 W PIT 40 E TOL 20 SW AZO 40 W MMO 20 N SZL 25 SW EMP 20 NE HUT 20 S CNK 10 W BIE 25 SSE RST 10 WNW EAU 60 S DLH 50 N BRD 45 SSW GFK 45 NE MBG 30 SSE PIR 10 W MCK 55 N CAO 15 NW ONM 20 SW DUG ...CONT... CZZ 30 NNW EDW 45 SSW TVL 35 ENE MHS 30 SSE OLM 20 E CLM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT AND MONDAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NRN ROCKIES AND NEAR A SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN WY AND WRN NEB. COLD AIR ADVECTION AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...NORTHEAST... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NERN US MONDAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 05:52:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 00:52:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507010604.j616452o016067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010602 SWODY2 SPC AC 010601 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL BRD 55 ENE ATY 10 WSW HON PIR 81V GCC SHR 3HT LWT GGW 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT GRB DBQ UIN POF 35 S MKL MSL HSV AVL CHO ACY ...CONT... GLS AUS MAF HOB 65 NE 4CR GUC 45 N PUC MLD 27U 3TH 85 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN MT TO WRN/NRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN GREAT LAKES CROSSES QUE AND WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...STALLING ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS WARM FRONT...BECOMING DIFFUSE EXCEPT WHERE REINFORCED BY ANY MCS OUTFLOWS FROM LATE DAY-1 CONVECTION. WLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SFC HEATING/MIXING JUST E OF ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN SD SSEWD TO VICINITY KS/CO BORDER. MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF BC -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/SHIFT EWD ACROSS MT/DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NWRN TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS... LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION IS FCST TO SPREAD INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS STATES BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVER NRN PLAINS...SFC THETAE WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SELY FLOW FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY ENRICHED CORN BELT MOISTURE. MAIN POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH PLAINS OF MT/NERN WY...AND PERHAPS WRN DAKOTAS. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FOR ANY SUCH ACTIVITY...EXCEPT IN THE EVENT OF CAP BREAKAGE OVER CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS CLOSER TO RICH SFC MOISTURE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER DAKOTAS AND ERN/NRN MN OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY NOCTURNAL MCS THAT EVOLVES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SEVERAL DAYS OF WLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP GREAT PLAINS AIR MASS...RESULTING IN STRONG CAPPING ALONG MOST OF WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE. ANY TSTMS FORMING ALONG/E OF DRYLINE OR INVOF WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL BE IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...GULF COAST STATES AND GA/CAROLINAS... BROAD AREA OF PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...FROM NC TO E TX -- MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE DURING DAY-2. VERY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT...THEREFORE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK NOT JUSTIFIED THIS SOON. HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. ...SRN PLAINS... GULF COAST REGIME MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS N TX OR OK...EXCEPT WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM MORE SLY SFC WINDS AND NW FLOW ALOFT. PLACEMENT OF EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE -- DEPENDS STRONGLY ON DEVELOPMENT/POSITIONING OF OUTFLOWS FROM ANY LATE DAY-1 MCS. THEREFORE VERY BROAD CORRIDOR IS ASSIGNED MARGINAL PROBABILITIES ATTM...WHICH MAY INCREASE ONCE MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 1 17:25:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Jul 2005 12:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507011736.j61HaM9F001960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011734 SWODY2 SPC AC 011733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 15 WSW DLH 30 ESE MSP 35 NNE FOD SUX 35 N VTN 30 N RAP 55 NE 4BQ 10 W GDV 35 E OLF 65 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 30 SSE AUS 30 WNW JCT 10 S HOB 65 NE 4CR GUC 45 N PUC 35 S MLD 45 NE SUN 40 WSW MSO 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NE MQT 35 ESE CWA DBQ 15 ENE P35 50 ENE CNU 60 N HOT 45 N TUP 50 S BNA 20 WNW TRI CHO ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. THRU THE DAY2 PERIOD. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND POSITIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO SERN ALBERTA DRAGGING THE SRN PORTION ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS. COMPARING THE NAM WITH THE GFS AND NAMKF...WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION IN THIS FORECAST. NAM LOOKS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN NEB INTO MN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS. THIS HAS LEAD TO AN ABUNDANCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...GFS DOES A BETTER JOB INDICATING STRENGTH OF THICKNESS RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY 03/00Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD THRU CENTRAL ND...THEN SWWD ACROSS W CENTRAL SD INTO NRN NV. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50-60 KT AND NEAR 100 KT RESPECTIVELY IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND W CENTRAL MT BY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES EXIT REGION OVER CENTRAL AND ERN MT BY EVENING WITH DIVERGENT FLOW FROM EXTREME ERN MT SWD OVER ERN CO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO 40-50 KT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN SD INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS EAST AND NORTH OF SURFACE LOW. AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCAPE REACHES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS NWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT/WRN ND... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY EVENING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND EXIT REGION MOVES OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS ENHANCING UVVS. ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER/MID LEVEL CAP...BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AS ACTIVITY FORMS INTO AN MCS MOVING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER CENTRAL AND SERN SD IN AREA OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT JUST W OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE IS MOST FAVORABLE. ...GULF COAST STATES... MOIST...UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW /EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD STILL REMAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 06:19:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 01:19:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507020630.j626UGrr025048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020627 SWODY2 SPC AC 020627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DEN 50 SSW HSI LNK OTG AXN BJI 50 SSW INL DLH CWA JVL MMO BMI SPI JEF TUL GAG CAO TAD 40 NE DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CRP VCT LFK GGG PRX DUA SPS LBB CVS TCC 25 W RTN 55 W COS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM LWT MLS 55 SSE Y22 50 NW ABR JMS 70 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NNE APN MBS HUF MDH ARG LIT PBF GLH GWO TUP LBE AOO HGR SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB 40 WSW ECG 50 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...MAIN FEATURE OF RELEVANCE BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN BC. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...DURING DAY-1 PERIOD...REACHING SERN SASK AND DAKOTAS BY APPROXIMATELY 04/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM ERN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB/NERN CO EARLY IN PERIOD...EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS LS REGION. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS PORTIONS IA/NWRN KS/ERN CO. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST E OF TX/NM BORDER NWD ACROSS SRN CO/KS BORDER REGION ...THEN INTERSECT FRONT...DURING LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT...IN AN ARC FROM MN ACROSS WRN IA/SWRN NEB...WSWWD TO ERN CO. ...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY... STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE FCST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT SWRN IA/SERN NEB NWD...WHILE STRONGEST MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT SRN MN SWD...AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS OVER THAT CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OVER PORTIONS WRN IA/NWRN MO/SERN NEB AREA...S OF REGION WHERE CANADIAN SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING VEER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WEAKER AND POTENTIALLY BACKED SFC WINDS OVER THIS AREA YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF ADVECTIVE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID 60S - MID 70S F RANGE DURING AFTERNOON OVER IA/NEB BORDER REGION...WHERE GREATEST CAPE AND MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATIONS OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IA AND/OR NRN MO...MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BOTH 1. ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT HAVE LARGEST CHANCE TO BREAK CAP AND 2. IN ERN CO WHERE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE. STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ACROSS CO/KS NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. MOISTURE AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE STRONGER OVER KS...MAKING AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL BUT ALSO MORE POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS. AS OFTEN IS TRUE IN SIMILAR PATTERNS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OVER ERN CO...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED. ONE OR TWO NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES MAY DEVELOP IN SITU OR FROM AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOVING SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD KS/OK BORDER REGION WITH SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ...SERN CONUS... RESIDUAL SEGMENTS OF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG SFC HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY EARLY-MIDDLE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY FORM MULTICELL CLUSTERS. BOTH PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EACH POSSIBLE. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FCST..AND MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES UNDEFINABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO DISORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 07:37:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 02:37:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507020748.j627m7gf021056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020745 SWODY2 SPC AC 020744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DEN 50 SSW HSI LNK OTG AXN BJI 50 SSW INL DLH CWA JVL MMO BMI SPI JEF TUL GAG CAO TAD 40 NE DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CRP VCT LFK GGG PRX DUA SPS LBB CVS TCC 25 W RTN 55 W COS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM LWT MLS 55 SSE Y22 50 NW ABR JMS 70 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NNE APN MBS HUF MDH ARG LIT PBF GLH GWO TUP LBE AOO HGR SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB 40 WSW ECG 50 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...MAIN FEATURE OF RELEVANCE BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN BC. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...DURING DAY-1 PERIOD...REACHING SERN SASK AND DAKOTAS BY APPROXIMATELY 04/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM ERN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB/NERN CO EARLY IN PERIOD...EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS LS REGION. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS PORTIONS IA/NWRN KS/ERN CO. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST E OF TX/NM BORDER NWD ACROSS SRN CO/KS BORDER REGION ...THEN INTERSECT FRONT...DURING LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT...IN AN ARC FROM MN ACROSS WRN IA/SWRN NEB...WSWWD TO ERN CO. ...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY... STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE FCST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT SWRN IA/SERN NEB NWD...WHILE STRONGEST MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT SRN MN SWD...AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS OVER THAT CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OVER PORTIONS WRN IA/NWRN MO/SERN NEB AREA...S OF REGION WHERE CANADIAN SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING VEER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WEAKER AND POTENTIALLY BACKED SFC WINDS OVER THIS AREA YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF ADVECTIVE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID 60S - MID 70S F RANGE DURING AFTERNOON OVER IA/NEB BORDER REGION...WHERE GREATEST CAPE AND MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATIONS OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IA AND/OR NRN MO...MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BOTH 1. ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT HAVE LARGEST CHANCE TO BREAK CAP AND 2. IN ERN CO WHERE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE. STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ACROSS CO/KS NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. MOISTURE AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE STRONGER OVER KS...MAKING AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL BUT ALSO MORE POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS. AS OFTEN IS TRUE IN SIMILAR PATTERNS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OVER ERN CO...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED. ONE OR TWO NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES MAY DEVELOP IN SITU OR FROM AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOVING SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD KS/OK BORDER REGION WITH SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ...SERN CONUS... RESIDUAL SEGMENTS OF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG SFC HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY EARLY-MIDDLE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY FORM MULTICELL CLUSTERS. BOTH PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EACH POSSIBLE. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FCST..AND MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES UNDEFINABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO DISORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 2 17:17:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Jul 2005 12:17:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507021728.j62HSm33000835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021726 SWODY2 SPC AC 021725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RRT 45 W RHI 25 ESE CWA 40 S OSH 15 W CGX 35 ENE BMI COU 10 SE CNU 50 WSW END 35 NW CSM 35 N AMA 10 NW TAD COS FCL 55 ESE CYS 25 SW IML 15 SW MCK 20 SSE HSI 15 ENE OLU 40 N RWF 15 NW AXN 15 NW TVF 35 SSE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ OSC 35 E LAF 25 S MTO 10 WSW TBN 40 SW JLN SPS LBB CVS 15 NE ALS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM 20 ESE 3HT 40 NW 4BQ 50 NW PHP 20 SSE MBG 60 SW JMS 55 NE BIS 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP VCT LFK 15 NNW ESF GWO BNA 25 NNW LEX 25 NE DAY 30 NNW MFD 10 SW ERI JHW 15 NE DUJ 20 SW AOO 20 ENE EKN 10 SSE ROA 25 W DAN 10 NE RDU 15 ENE RWI 30 WSW ECG 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...WHILE A FLAT RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN SWWD INTO SWRN KS BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TIME. ...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION... GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE PUSHING THROUGH ERN MN/WRN WI AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL NEED TIME TO DESTABILIZE... DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM IA SWWD INTO NEB. MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN MN/WI AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING STRONGEST FORCING IN SRN ONTARIO AND SERN NEB/IA AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT FROM MN SWD INTO WRN IA/SERN NEB AS DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS WEAK CAP IN MN ...WHILE STRONGER FORCING IN SERN NEB/IA AIDS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY PLUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRONG CURATIVE IN THE LOWER 3 KM...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/ LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATES NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NEB AND IA...WITH THE GREATEST INITIAL THREAT LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL. ONCE THE DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND MCS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...IL AND NRN MO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG HEATING AND MASS CONVERGENCE AID IN WEAKENING A STRONG CAP. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD DURING THE EVENING ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS. STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ELY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES LIFT AND ADVECTS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED. WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN CO...BUT SHOULD TURN SEWD INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT. ...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... WEAK UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BE IDENTIFIED. ..IMY.. 07/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 06:11:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 01:11:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507030622.j636MpnA030900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030621 SWODY2 SPC AC 030620 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK DDC CSM LTS CDS PVW CVS 50 W TCC RTN TAD PUB COS DEN CYS DGW 45 S GCC 45 WSW RAP 55 ENE CDR MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW SDF HOP 25 WNW MEM 55 NNE LIT HRO JEF MLI MTW 40 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX 55 S CLL AUS SJT BGS HOB 35 NW GDP ALM ONM 4SL 45 N CEZ CNY 50 NE U24 30 WSW OGD 40 SE MLD RKS RWL 30 SW CPR 30 SSW COD WEY 60 SW 27U BOI SVE RBL 35 W MHS MFR RDM PDT ALW GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 45 NW HVR PIR 9V9 OFK LNK BIE MHK OJC P35 MCW STC AXN JMS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNE MOT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MI TO ERN OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... MOST IMPORTANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE FIRST -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MT/SK LINE -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD GENERALLY ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED/AMPLITUDE/TILT OF THIS FEATURE ARE FAR SMALLER THAN IN PRIOR RUNS...AND NOW INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED PERTURBATION FROM SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY REGION...SWWD ACROSS NRN ONT TO UPPER MS VALLEY...BY ABOUT 05/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM LH AND LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/ERN MO BY THEN...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY INVOF RED RIVER AND WWD INTO ERN NM. ...GREAT LAKES TO AR... LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS EXISTS OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND MORE SPORADIC/ISOLATED DOWNBURST EVENTS EXTENDS FARTHER SW INTO ERN OZARKS REGION..DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES -- NEVER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG BECAUSE OF LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING WITH HEIGHT -- ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTEND ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES 35-34 KT IN NRN LOWER MI...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 15 KT OVER AR. BY CONTRAST...BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...BECAUSE OF LARGER DEGREES OF BOTH SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. SFC DEW POINTS 70S F SUPPORT FCST MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG OVER AR/WRN KY/SERN MO REGION...DIMINISHING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER DEW POINTS MAY RESTRAIN BUOYANCY. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED WITH HAIL BEING MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED. A NOCTURNAL CLUSTER OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND MAINTAIN WIND POTENTIAL WELL AFTER DARK...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF OUTLOOK AREA. SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST N OF SFC FRONT...OVER BROAD AREA FROM NERN NM NWD PAST BLACK HILLS. GREATEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED UPSLOPE SHOULD BE FROM VICINITY CO/NM BORDER REGION NWD ACROSS CO. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN -- SUCH AS RTN/PALMER/CYS RIDGES AND OF ERN FRONT OF MOUNTAINS -- SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE IN PROFILE OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS BUT MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT WRN PART OF THIS OUTLOOK CORRIDOR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS DURING EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY CONGEAL FROM THIS ACTIVITY..OR IN SITU AFTER DARK. PRIND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DAMAGING MCS DEVELOPMENT IS FROM ERN CO/NERN NM ACROSS WRN KS OR PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 3 16:57:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 11:57:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507031708.j63H8geo031604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031706 SWODY2 SPC AC 031705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK DDC CSM 10 WSW LTS CDS PVW 10 SSW CVS 50 W TCC RTN TAD PUB COS DEN CYS DGW 45 S GCC 45 WSW RAP 55 ENE CDR MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW SDF HOP 50 NE PBF 45 NW LIT 20 WNW HRO 10 ESE COU MLI MTW 40 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX 55 S CLL AUS SJT BGS HOB 35 NW GDP ALM ONM 4SL 45 N CEZ CNY 50 NE U24 30 WSW OGD 40 SE MLD RKS RWL 30 SW CPR 30 SSW COD WEY 60 SW 27U BOI SVE RBL 35 W MHS MFR RDM PDT ALW GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 45 NW HVR 30 NNE PHP 9V9 65 W YKN 40 ENE BUB 30 SE HSI 25 SSE CNK 20 E FNB 15 N LWD MCW STC AXN JMS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNE MOT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB EWN HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO AR... H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH MONDAY...SKIRTING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/GREAT LAKES REGION. A SECONDARY SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO UPPER MI...WI SWWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. A WEAK LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KANSAS CITY...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVEL NEWD TOWARD CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE. WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE OCCURRING VCNTY THE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO ERN KS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW AGAIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS. FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID-LEVELS WILL PRIMARILY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY...SUGGESTING THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWS ECHOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODES ACROSS LOWER MI...IL AND INDIANA. FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT...THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER N. IN CONTRAST...BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATER FARTHER S GIVEN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/FRONT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...MAINLY FROM NERN AR NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... REMNANT MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND CNTRL OK MONDAY MORNING. LLJ THAT WILL BE FEEDING THIS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH A BRANCH TRANSLATING FARTHER NE INTO THE LOWER OH VLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE MCS. THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS /WITH RISKS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME DIVERGENT ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH TIME AND ANY DEFINED FOCI...IF ANY...ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM. BY AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE FROM NERN NM TO SERN MT. STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT/CONVERGENCE IS APT TO EXIST ALONG/N OF THE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED FRONT ACROSS CO/NERN NM. INTENSE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT LARGE DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM ERN CO/NERN NM INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. ..RACY.. 07/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 06:04:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 01:04:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507040615.j646FS5l024828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040612 SWODY2 SPC AC 040611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ROW 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN MCK DDC GAG 40 SE CDS 70 NW ABI 50 NNW HOB 55 NNE ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL LCI MSV EKN CRW HTS LUK 35 W DAY 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BPT CLL JCT DRT ...CONT... ELP TCS 4SL GUC ASE EGE 50 NE RKS IDA 40 NNE 27U 3DU LWT MLS GDV SDY 80 NNW ISN ...CONT... 95 N GFK DVL MBG 50 ENE PIR SUX OMA EMP BVO FYV HRO STL CGX MKE VOK EAU 45 N BRD RRT ...CONT... ACY 10 WNW NHK RIC 35 ENE RWI 55 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID/UPPER OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL FEATURE FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY REGION...AND RIDGING ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT VERY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 04/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 03/21Z SREF MEMBERS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PATTERN. PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS -- POSSIBLY INCLUDING MVC FROM DAY-1 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES -- SHOULD LEAD TO TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SEWD ACROSS SWRN GREAT LAKES TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS KY TO ARKLATEX. FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER W THROUGH W TX AND NM WILL BE STRONGLY MODULATED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ...NERN CONUS... DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DAY IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS FROM OH VALLEY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH...MOIST ADVECTION AND DIURNAL/DIABATIC SFC HEATING. ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK CINH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF CONVECTION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...BOTH OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF ONT. MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MAKING SRN EDGE OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL RATHER NEBULOUS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... NW-FLOW SEVERE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN CO THROUGH ERN NM. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL SPEEDS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS MOVING SEWD TO SSEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF MOTION IS FCST -- TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER EVENTS OVER WRN TX/NM UNDER WEAK-MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT -- KEEPING BULK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER HIGH PLAINS EVEN AFTER DARK. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE EXPECTED IN INFLOW REGION OF CONVECTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AIDING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO RELATIVELY DENSE CLUSTER OR MCS AND MOVE SSEWD OR SWD OVER SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AFTER DARK. MORE SPECIFIC CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS REGION -- INCLUDING MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS -- WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON POSITION/ORIENTATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY LATE DAY-1 CONVECTION. ...SRN LOW PLAINS... MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL MAY MOVE SEWD FROM SERN CO/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIODS. REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR FCST DETAILS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER PAST 05/12Z AS ACTIVITY ENTERS PARTS OF NW TX...AND/OR RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX. PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MORNING AS 1. BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLES...CAUSING WEAKENING LLJ AND DIMINISHING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND 2. ACTIVITY MOVES INTO REGIME OF WEAKER MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS AND SMALLER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 4 17:19:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 12:19:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507041730.j64HUnrF008784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041728 SWODY2 SPC AC 041727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E 4CR 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN HLC 45 ENE GAG SPS 30 S SEP 55 SW SJT 15 E CNM 50 E 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUL POU 45 WSW MRB 10 SW CRW 35 SE LUK 25 NNW LUK 20 NNW DAY 60 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 SSE ALM ONM 40 N GNT 25 SW MTJ U24 40 NE TPH 20 ESE LOL 40 W OWY IDA 40 NNE 27U 50 NE MSO 55 N LWT 65 S GGW 30 NNW GDV 35 WNW ISN 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK DVL 45 SSE BIS 50 ENE PIR 35 WNW DSM 30 S P35 30 S OJC SGF 15 NW UNO 30 WSW MTO CGX 30 SSE MKE 10 ESE LNR 15 ENE MKT 45 S AXN RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK / NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEHIND THIS TROUGH / AHEAD OF QUASI-STATIONARY SWRN U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / PLAINS STATES ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE A SECOND FRONTAL SURGE MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN MUDDLED ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITH STRONGEST BOUNDARIES LIKELY BEING THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO TX / OK... MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE ENHANCED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS. OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS / MCSS -- INITIATING PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW -- AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. EXACT LOCATIONS OF CONCENTRATED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THREAT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM...AS WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- AND SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD -- WILL AFFECT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM ERN CO / SWRN NEB SWD ACROSS ERN NM / PARTS OF NWRN TX. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...DEGREE OF RESULTING INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOCATION OF ANY SUCH ENHANCED THREAT AREAS CANNOT BE DISCERNED ATTM. ...THE NORTHEAST... DIURNAL HEATING OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT / AWAY FROM CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON...FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERAL MORE ORGANIZED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. WEAKER FLOW FROM KY SWWD INTO AR SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM OH / WV NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN STORMS / SEVERE THREAT LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 06:10:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 01:10:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507050621.j656L1mA002600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050617 SWODY2 SPC AC 050616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL P28 CSM 50 NNW CDS EHA LHX 40 E DEN BFF AIA LBF RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 7R4 LFT HEZ GWO TUP CSV LOZ LEX BMG DNV CGX MKG OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF GDP CVS TCC RTN 4FC LAR 50 NE CPR 50 ENE COD WEY SUN 75 SE 4LW 45 SSW SVE RBL MFR DLS 65 NNE 4OM ...CONT... RRT TVF FAR 45 ENE ATY FOD IRK COU TBN HRO 45 SSE DAL DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH FCST PERIOD...AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NWRN ONT SSWWD TOWARD NRN IA -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER GREAT LAKES THROUGH PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND NERN PLAINS. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL TROUGH -- ACROSS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC REGION -- AND MOST PROBABLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA. THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE -- 1005-1010 MB RANGE WITH WEAK SURROUNDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS...PREVIOUS RUNS OF SAME...AND 21Z SREF MEMBERS AS TO ITS CENTRAL LOCATION AND SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ATTACHED FRONTS. PRIND WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ZONALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD OR SWWD INTO LOW...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION FROM PA/NJ THROUGH CAROLINAS. FARTHER W...WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SHIFTING SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS/ERN CO. BY AFTERNOON...VERY BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD EXTEND WNW-ESE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...MODULATED HEAVILY BY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OCCURRING BEFORE THEN. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER REGION AGAIN THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. SPECIFIC FOCI WILL BE MESOSCALE IN NATURE AND DICTATED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES OCCURRING THIS MORNING THROUGH DAY-1 PERIOD. MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD BE FROM PORTIONS ERN CO SEWD TOWARD NERN OK...WHERE SFC FLOW IS RELATIVELY BACKED...E-NE OF WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW AND INVOF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. EXPECT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR GIVEN ELY/SELY SFC FLOW AND NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS...YIELDING POTENTIALLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN SOME LOCALES. HOWEVER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT DURATION/LONGEVITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BETWEEN MIDAFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S MAY COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS SOME PORTIONS WRN KS AND NW OK. FARTHER NW ACROSS ERN CO...PROGGED ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE AMIDST STRONG SFC HEATING AND WEAKENING AFTERNOON CAP. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION OF T.D. 3 TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SERN LA DURING THIS PERIOD. REF NHC BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES AND FCST TRACK/INTENSITY. PROGGED WIND FIELDS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...OVER SOME PORTION OF NERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION. ANY CHANGES IN SYSTEM TRACK OR SIZE/INTENSIFY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS COMPARED TO THOSE CURRENTLY PROGGED WOULD COMPEL ADJUSTMENT OF OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY. ...NERN CONUS... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY OVER PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR...S THROUGH E OF SFC LOW. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN AFTERNOON WHEN SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND MLCAPE EACH ARE STRONGEST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...I.E. 50-60 KT AT 250MB...HOWEVER WEAK FLOW BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN MOST AREAS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MARGINAL ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA. ...NRN PLAINS... VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LARGE BUOYANCY BUY AFTERNOON...ALONG AND E OF A CONFLUENCE LINE/WEAK DRYLINE THAT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS/ERN WY. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS...E OF UPPER RIDGE WHERE MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS SOME NLY COMPONENT. MIDLEVEL FLOWS 10-15 KT WILL LIMIT BULK SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD BE WEAK. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS INSUFFICIENT ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 5 17:16:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:16:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507051727.j65HRUxD014454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051725 SWODY2 SPC AC 051724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL 25 E P28 45 SW END 30 W LTS 15 NNE PVW 35 E TCC LHX 40 NW LIC 25 ESE CYS 20 S BFF 30 SE AIA 20 NE MCK RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1 45 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW HEZ 30 N GLH 30 E MEM 55 N MSL 40 SE BNA 45 N CSV 25 S LEX 25 N LUK 30 SW FDY 30 ENE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF GDP 40 NNE ROW 40 NW TCC 30 SW PUB 20 SSE 4FC LAR 35 NE CPR 20 WSW SHR 30 ENE WEY 20 NW SUN 75 SE 4LW 45 SSW SVE RBL MFR DLS 65 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 75 NNE DVL 20 N JMS ABR 30 ESE MHE 35 NE OMA 30 ENE MKC 15 N UMN 10 WSW PGO 35 WNW ACT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE EXTREME NRN ROCKIES AND SWRN CANADA DURING THE DAY. NRN PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA. TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM DAY 1 OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA AND A LEE TROUGH OVER CO/NM WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME FROM PARTS OF NM NWD THROUGH CO AND SERN WY AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A MCS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED E OF THE CENTER OF TS CINDY AS IT MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND... BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF AL. ...CNTRL/ERN MT... MID/UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MOVE EWD ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH MT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES...BUT HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 07/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 06:03:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 01:03:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507060614.j666El7Y015342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060610 SWODY2 SPC AC 060609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK JMS MBG 40 SE REJ 40 SW 4BQ MLS GDV SDY ISN 80 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS TCC LHX LIC AKO IML MCK HLC GAG CDS 55 E LBB 60 SSE CVS CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW PBG ISP ...CONT... 35 ESE GPT TCL HSV CSV LOZ LEX IND 45 WSW FWA 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ELO DLH STC BKX MHE BUB EAR SLN ICT OKC BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 4FC CPR WRL SUN SVE MHS 65 NNE MFR RDM 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS/SERN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND HUDSON BAY REGIONS. DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER ERN CONUS. OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...ALONG WITH MANY 21Z SREF MEMBERS...AGREE ON WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB OVER ERN GREAT LAKES OR ADJACENT PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA OF SERN ONT/SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN NEWD EJECTION OF REMAINS OF TS CINDY...SEE NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR SPECIFIC FCST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER NW...MINOR/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO PASS OVER PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...AMIDST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY/WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND PORTIONS DAKOTAS...WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SERN MT/NWRN SD PORTION OF FRONT. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CLUSTERING INTO AN MCS OR TWO IN EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AS RIDGE BUILDS TO W AND NW...FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAT DAY-1...ESPECIALLY IN UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN MORE BRIEF WINDOW FOR OPTIMAL STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...FCST LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ENLARGED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS. THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATED STRONG AFTERNOON BUOYANCY -- SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT. ...DAKOTAS/SERN MT AREA... PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCI SHOULD BE FRONTAL ZONE OVER DAKOTAS/SERN MT...AND POSTFRONTAL NELYS ADVECTING RESIDUAL MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS SRN MT. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT AND IS EXPECTED TO ME MARGINAL INVOF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED SFC DEW POINTS IN 60S F SHOULD YIELD MDT-STRONG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY OVER ND AND NRN SD. LINE OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PRIMARILY MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR N-NE OF LEE CYCLONE ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FROM SERN MT TOWARD WRN DAKOTAS. ...TIDEWATER/PIEDMONT AREAS...DELMARVA TO SC... REMAINS OF TS CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH -- AND PERHAPS REGIONALLY ENHANCE -- WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED SW-NE OVER SERN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND BACKED FLOW ALONG/E OF THAT FRONT MAY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SE-NE OF LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING OPTIMIZES SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS THIS FAR INLAND...AND OF MESOSCALE DETAILS REGARDING FRONTAL INTERACTION -- PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 17:18:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 12:18:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507061729.j66HTJqJ032176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061727 SWODY2 SPC AC 061726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW GFK 65 SW JMS 35 SW Y22 25 SE 4BQ 45 SSE BIL 25 WNW BIL 35 SE LWT 40 SSW OLF 10 NW ISN 80 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CVS 50 ENE LVS 25 WSW PUB DEN 40 E FCL 30 SSW SNY 40 WSW IML 55 S GLD 30 SW LBL 30 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 S LBB 55 NNE HOB 20 W CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 45 E INL 20 NNE BRD 20 S ATY 30 N GRI 40 W HUT 20 ENE SPS 30 WSW MWL 25 WNW LFK 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 40 W RTN 10 SE CAG 20 S WRL 40 E MLD 25 NW LOL 30 ESE MHS 50 NE MFR 15 S ALW 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NEWD INTO S CNTRL CANADA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE AND MOVE FROM ERN MT BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO WRN ND BY THURSDAY EVENING. REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ERN U.S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ...ND THROUGH NW MN... A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO ND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHUNTED OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CANADA. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. WITH STRONGER MID AND UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST FRONTAL REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES APPEAR MOST LIKELY STORM TYPE...BUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT WHERE NLY POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE NNWLY...RESULTING IN WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE LIMITING FACTORS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...NM AND SRN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 25-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT OF UPPER FLOW...STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING E OF THE CO/NM BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... REMNANTS OF TS CINDY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 6 17:49:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 12:49:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507061800.j66I00fl017536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061757 SWODY2 SPC AC 061756 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW GFK 65 SW JMS 35 SW Y22 25 SE 4BQ 45 SSE BIL 25 WNW BIL 35 SE LWT 40 SSW OLF 10 NW ISN 80 NE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CVS 50 ENE LVS 25 WSW PUB DEN 40 E FCL 30 SSW SNY 40 WSW IML 55 S GLD 30 SW LBL 30 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 S LBB 55 NNE HOB 20 W CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 W RTN 10 SE CAG 20 S WRL 40 E MLD 25 NW LOL 30 ESE MHS 50 NE MFR 15 S ALW 50 N FCA ...CONT... 45 E INL 15 NNE BRD 35 ENE ATY 10 W RST 35 SE DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD 20 SE SUX 30 NNE GRI 40 W HUT 20 ENE SPS 30 WSW MWL 25 WNW LFK 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE BUF ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE IA IN GENERAL THUNDER ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NEWD INTO S CNTRL CANADA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE AND MOVE FROM ERN MT BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO WRN ND BY THURSDAY EVENING. REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ERN U.S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ...ND THROUGH NW MN... A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO ND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHUNTED OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CANADA. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. WITH STRONGER MID AND UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST FRONTAL REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES APPEAR MOST LIKELY STORM TYPE...BUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT WHERE NLY POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE NNWLY...RESULTING IN WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE LIMITING FACTORS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...NM AND SRN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 25-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT OF UPPER FLOW...STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ADVANCING E OF THE CO/NM BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... REMNANTS OF TS CINDY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 07/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 05:59:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 00:59:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507070609.j6769tmo024309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070607 SWODY2 SPC AC 070606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CMX JVL RFD PIA UIN MKC HUT GAG 65 WSW SPS MWL LFK HEZ MGM AUO LGC ATL TYS LOZ LEX MIE FWA JXN FNT 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 40 W CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... ELP ONM 4SL CPR WRL JAC BYI 4LW LMT 55 NNE MFR 50 ESE SLE DLS EPH 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW PIE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN GBN PHX SAD 45 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CO ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY. TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AK PANHANDLE/BC COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM PACIFIC NW NEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SRN ONT AND ERN GREAT LAKES FROM SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ENHANCING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ...MN/IA/ERN SD... POTENTIAL LATE DAY-1 MCS MAY STILL CONTAIN SOME STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S AND LOW 70S. REF LATEST DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. PRIND ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MORNING AS DIABATIC HEATING REDUCES/ELIMINATES NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...CAUSING WEAKENING OF LLJ. BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY ANY MORNING COMPLEX MAY...IN TURN...PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUCH CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...HEATED/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...BUILDING RIDGE TO W AND INCREASING CAPPING...COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO RELIANCE ON PRIOR CONVECTION...MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO SWD THROUGH W TX/ERN NM REGION. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE UPSLOPE...AMIDST STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR BOTH ALONG COMMON OROGRAPHIC FOCI AND ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT BY DAY-1 ACTIVITY. AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS...HOWEVER...LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE MULTICELL/TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE MODES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MORE MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/ERN MT AND WRN DAKOTAS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF JET MAX. MEAN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM ARE REASONABLY PROGGED OVER REGION GIVEN PERSISTENT WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. CONCERNS OVER MOISTURE AND LOCATION/STRENGTH OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING PRECLUDE LARGE ENOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...TIDEWATER AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN... REMAINS OF FORMER T.S. CINDY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN PERIOD. FAVORABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E AND S OF TRACK OF ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. THREAT MAY BE OVERWITH ALTOGETHER BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD IF CYCLONE REMNANTS EJECT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PROGGED. ...S FL... DENNIS IS FCST BY NHC TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO SERN GULF LATE IN PERIOD AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND RELATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES MAY AFFECT FL KEYS AND BRUSH PORTIONS SRN PENINSULA. IF CURRENT TRACK/INTENSITY PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE AS IS OR SHIFT EWD AT ALL...THIS AREA EVENTUALLY MAY NEED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 7 17:32:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2005 12:32:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507071743.j67HhGOZ029301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071741 SWODY2 SPC AC 071740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 4CR LVS 35 SE RTN 15 WSW DHT 20 NE PVW 50 SE LBB 40 S BGS 10 NE P07 40 ESE MRF 45 S GDP 40 NW GDP 10 S 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ELO 45 SE DLH 35 ESE BRD 25 SE AXN 45 W FOD 40 WNW BIE 40 SE LBF 35 W CDR 45 ESE 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 20 SSW Y22 30 SW MBG 40 W ABR 45 ESE JMS 60 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 45 NNE TUS 40 NE DUG 20 W SVC 55 ENE SOW U17 35 E SLC 20 SSW MLD 40 NE EKO 55 N BAM 60 SW BNO 30 SSW PDT 35 NW CTB ...CONT... 105 NE MQT 30 SSE CWA 25 SSE LNR 20 SSW OTM STJ MHK 20 E GAG 20 NNW LTS 35 SE SPS 15 NE SHV 20 N LUL 25 N TOI 30 NW AGS 30 W HSS 50 NNE HSV 35 ENE PAH 15 NE DEC 35 NE CGX 35 W MBS 60 SE OSC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AS REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THOUGH OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AWAY FROM AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEMS...BROAD SLY / SELY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION / UPSLOPE FLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS... LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY LARGE MCS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NAM / NAMKF BOTH SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY EVOLVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / NEB...PORTIONS OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY COOLED -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIKELY YIELDING A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN AREAS FOR AFTERNOON STORM REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED / SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- PERHAPS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF IA WWD ACROSS NEB AND THEN NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN / WRN ND IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION...WITH MAIN THREATS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH TIME AND THEN SHIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX... WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM / FAR W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NLY / NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY...DRY / DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AN MCS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE COLD POOL MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE SEWD / SWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT... LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MT THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ATTM...GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED...AND WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... REMNANTS OF CINDY SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN NC / VA EARLY IN THE PERIOD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NC / VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION WITH TIME. GIVEN VERY MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS S AND E OF CIRCULATION CENTER...STRONG / ROTATING STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION. ...S FL AND THE KEYS... DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL / WRN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD AS A POTENTIALLY MAJOR HURRICANE -- PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NHC / TPC. ASSUMING NERN QUADRANT OF DENNIS CROSSES THE KEYS / SRN FL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS / ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL MAINTAIN A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR THIS AREA TO REFLECT THIS THREAT...WITH A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS ASSUMING TRACK FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT. ..GOSS.. 07/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 05:38:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 00:38:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507080548.j685mtZx012067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080547 SWODY2 SPC AC 080545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PNS 30 SSW CEW 35 N DHN 30 WSW MCN 55 S AGS 40 ENE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 45 WNW JMS MBG 25 E REJ 25 SSE MLS 60 SSW GGW 65 NW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE PLACES HURRICANE DENNIS IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING NNWWD TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING EXPANDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GA...AL AND SC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE SHOW STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF FL...SRN GA AND SE AL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD ON SATURDAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SW FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ...WEST TX/ERN NM... THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN CO. EAST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NLY ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM CREATING STRONGLY VEERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SAT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM AND WEST TX DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 05:51:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 00:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507080601.j6861uR5017398@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080559 SWODY2 SPC AC 080558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 45 WNW JMS MBG 25 E REJ 25 SSE MLS 60 SSW GGW 65 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PNS 30 SSW CEW 35 N DHN 30 WSW MCN 55 S AGS 40 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ACY 15 W TTN 20 NW ELM 35 NNW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 30 SW ESC 25 WSW CID 30 W HUT 45 NE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50 NE JCT 20 WNW ACT 20 N PRX 40 WNW HOT 20 S MEM 35 NE CHA 60 SW RIC WAL ...CONT... 20 WNW ELP 35 ENE DRO 30 SW CAG 25 N RWL 25 NE RIW 45 ESE JAC 15 NNW MLD 60 WNW TWF 25 NNE BKE 20 SW S06 25 N CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE PLACES HURRICANE DENNIS IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING NNWWD TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING EXPANDING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GA...AL AND SC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE SHOW STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF FL...SRN GA AND SE AL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD ON SATURDAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SW FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ...WEST TX/ERN NM... THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN CO. EAST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NLY ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM CREATING STRONGLY VEERING LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SAT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM AND WEST TX DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...ERN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SATURDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 8 17:24:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Jul 2005 12:24:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507081735.j68HZEYp015871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081732 SWODY2 SPC AC 081731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNE DVL 35 NW JMS 45 N RAP 40 ENE 4BQ 50 NNE SHR 40 ESE BIL 55 ESE LWT 55 SW GGW 55 NNW OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNS 40 NNE CEW ABY 15 WSW JAX DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 85 WNW TCS 30 SW CAG 35 E RKS 40 SE BPI 35 E MLD 65 NNE ENV 35 SSE BOI 80 E BKE 30 NNW HLN 50 ESE HVR 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 70 NW ANJ 40 ESE MKE 25 NE MLI 35 S FOD 25 ENE GRI 30 W HUT 35 ENE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50 NE JCT 20 WNW ACT 20 N PRX 20 S HRO 20 WSW JBR 35 NNW TUP 35 NNW BHM 40 WNW AND 25 ENE CRW 25 SE HLG 20 SE YNG 55 WNW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SWRN GA / SERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS ERN MT AND INTO WRN ND / NWRN SD... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF THIS PERIOD...WITH U.S. LANDFALL NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WINDS / OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN U.S. WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ERN MT / WRN ND / PARTS OF WY...WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FL AND ADJACENT SERN AL / SWRN GA... ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC / TPC...HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED W OF THE FL KEYS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG SUCH A TRACK...STRONG SLY FLOW AROUND ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS FL...AND INTO PARTS OF SRN GA / SRN AL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST...AS TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUTER BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WHERE FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. ...ERN MT / WRN ND... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN MT / NWRN ND / NRN WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS WRN ND OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT OVER SERN AND ERN MT SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY BUT STRONGER CAP SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL FORCING INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND VICINITY...AND THEN DEVELOP / SPREAD ENEWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN ND. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...BELT OF MUCH STRONGER / SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF ND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS AREAS FROM WRN ND WWD. WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE HIGH-BASED ABOVE A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE / EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER WRN ND...THOUGH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER / INCREASED CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN NM AND PARTS OF W TX... WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MODEST /50S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY HIGH-BASED STORM...A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER / POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND ADJACENT W TX. ACROSS THIS REGION...A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 KT NNWLYS AT MID-LEVELS MAY YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF MULTICELL /WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LIMITED WIND / HAIL POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 05:36:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 00:36:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507090546.j695kias027192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090544 SWODY2 SPC AC 090543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 35 SE JMS 35 E PIR 45 WNW VTN 20 NNE BFF 50 NW BFF 30 NNE DGW 30 SSW 81V 35 E REJ 50 ENE DIK 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 20 S ORL 30 SSW AGR 35 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 E PNS SEM 10 NE BHM 40 NNE GAD 35 ESE CHA 50 NNW AHN 25 SSE AND 30 SE AGS 30 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ELP 45 SSE ALS 35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 20 NE 3TH 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 25 NE RWF 35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E BVO 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW BMG 40 ENE LEX 30 W BKW 30 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN 15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL...GA AND FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND...SD...FAR NWRN NEB AND FAR ERN WY... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LATEST HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE MOVES HURRICANE DENNIS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER MOVING ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EAST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FL...GA AND ERN AL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY EAST OF THE CENTER SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUITABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST OVER A LARGE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MORE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF A DRY SLOT CAN WRAP AROUND THE HURRICANE ALLOWING STRONG SFC HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RAINBANDS THAT MOVE NORTH AND NWWD ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN PLAINS... A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH INTO ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND WRN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2500 J/KG. IF THIS VERIFIES...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 9 17:26:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 12:26:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507091736.j69Hanbr001949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091733 SWODY2 SPC AC 091731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 20 SE FAR 35 ENE PIR 30 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 45 SE 4BQ 25 E DIK 55 NNE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PNS 30 SSW CBM 20 NNE TUP 25 SSE BNA 30 SW TYS 30 NE AGS 25 SW DAB 20 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CMX 25 NE RWF 35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E BVO 50 SSE SZL 55 SSE SDF 35 NNW HKY 25 ESE GSO 20 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 45 SSE ALS 35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 25 NW HLN 35 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN 15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THIS PERIOD. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA / SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC / TPC. MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. / NRN ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ERN RIDGE -- EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY INTO THE ARCTIC. SURFACE LOW / FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SERN CONUS... BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK / INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HURRICANE DENNIS...LARGE AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY / ELY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED -- WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE STORM CIRCULATION -- FROM FL NWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND AL...AND INTO TN. WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR / HELICITY FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN OUTER BANDS. ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ONLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INVOF FRONT. AS BELT OF STRONGER /35 TO 45 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS MT / WY INTO WRN AND CENTRAL ND / WRN SD WITH TIME...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS. THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WOULD SUGGEST THAT EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING / SUPERCELL STORMS. OVERNIGHT...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY YIELD MCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAKER WIND FIELD / LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD COMBINE WITH STRONGER CAPPING TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN SD / ERN CO INTO NERN NM....AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SERN NM / W TX...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED / LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. FURTHER...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. THEREFORE...THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST...AND WILL EXTEND 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY SWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE RIO GRANDE. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 05:39:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 00:39:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507100550.j6A5oMW2023644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100548 SWODY2 SPC AC 100547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 40 SSW ESF 30 N MLU 65 SSW JBR 40 S CGI 40 WNW HOP 30 S BWG 40 E CHA 15 SE MCN 25 N VLD 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DRT 60 E JCT 15 N DAL BVO 45 E ICT 30 SSW HUT 25 ENE GAG 65 NNE BGS 20 N FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 W ELP 20 ENE ALM 45 NE 4CR 45 WSW RTN 25 NNW FCL 35 NNW REJ 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 55 NE CMX 35 SE EAU 45 ENE ALO 10 SE MLI 40 W UNI 15 ESE EKN 20 SE HGR 10 ESE ELM 35 WNW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY... ...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY... THE LATEST HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE BRINGS HURRICANE DENNIS INLAND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND MOVING ACROSS MS ON MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL IN RAINBANDS THAT SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS MS...AL AND WRN TN WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 M/S FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE RAINBANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD INTO SRN CANADA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN MN SSWWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL NEB. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF ASCENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 10 17:27:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2005 12:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507101737.j6AHbjh0013536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101735 SWODY2 SPC AC 101734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S MOB 25 SE MEI 30 SW TUP 25 SW DYR 30 SSW CGI 15 WNW MVN 40 NNW EVV 60 W LOZ 50 ESE CHA 30 W ABY 10 SSW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DRT 40 ENE AUS 50 NNW POE 10 WSW GLH 35 W ARG 30 ESE VIH 25 ESE OJC 25 NNE EMP 30 ESE ICT 10 WSW SPS 15 E SJT 50 ESE P07 ...CONT... 20 W ELP 20 ENE ALM 55 NNE 4CR 50 NNW LVS 40 NE ALS 35 ESE EGE 25 WNW LAR 55 WSW RAP 35 NNW REJ 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 85 NNW ANJ 15 WSW CWA 35 W JVL 20 SW FWA 20 S CMH 25 ENE LBE 25 WSW ACY 15 NNE PHL 25 S IPT 35 NNE BFD 45 NW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL SYSTEM DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE WELL INLAND -- ACROSS NERN MS -- AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NWD TOWARD SRN IL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACCORDING TO LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC / TPC. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WLYS N OF SWRN U.S. RIDGE -- SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME SHUNTED NEWD WITH TIME AS IT IMPINGES UPON STRONG NERN U.S. / ERN CANADA RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST ASIDE FROM DENNIS WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS... THOUGH DENNIS WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN ENHANCED SLY / SELY FLOW FIELD AROUND THE ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS THROUGH 12/12Z. ...NRN PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INVOF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE / REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THOUGH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE U.S. / CANADA BORDER...MODERATE SWLYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WEAKENING WITH TIME AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...WITH MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... BROAD ZONE OF SELY / ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH TIME ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. WITH UPPER RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY WWD DUE TO DENNIS...UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH 20 TO 25 KT ANTICYCLONIC NWLY / NLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG ERN FRINGES OF UPPER HIGH...RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE STORMS. WITH NAM APPARENTLY TOO FAR W WITH DENNIS...EXACT LOCATION OF WRN UPPER RIDGE -- AND STRENGTH / LOCATION OF BELT OF NLY FLOW AROUND ERN PORTION OF RIDGE -- REMAINS A QUESTION. THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 05:33:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 00:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507110543.j6B5hnjs011167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110541 SWODY2 SPC AC 110540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EFK 10 W BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG 20 WNW FMN 30 W ASE 10 SW LAR 40 WNW ABR 20 ESE INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN US... LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER PLACES THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TUESDAY. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH REDEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LOW CENTER WHERE FLOW WILL BE WLY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO THE MTNS OF SE WY...CO AND NRN NM. AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP TUESDAY MORNING...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SLOWLY SWD PARALLELING THE FRONT RANGE AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 11 17:26:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 12:26:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507111737.j6BHbL0x019673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111735 SWODY2 SPC AC 111733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 40 NNW GUP 10 WSW ASE 35 ESE CYS 30 NW YKN 20 E INL ...CONT... 25 W EFK 10 W BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF HRCN DENNIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...OTHER THAN THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY... SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA OF IL/IN/KY DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM/ETA FORECASTS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY TO BE ACROSS IL EWD INTO NRN OH...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MOIST. THUS...WILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. GIVEN THAT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S GIVING MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED...THUS THE LOW PROBABILITIES. ...ERN CO INTO NERN NM... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/COLORADO HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW. DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM TO NEAR/AROUND 8.5C/KM. THUS... WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 05:50:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 00:50:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507120600.j6C60q9M006075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120558 SWODY2 SPC AC 120557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MOT 35 SSE GDV 25 E WEY 35 WSW MQM 40 SW 27U 50 WNW 27U 25 SW MSO 30 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 10 NNE RUT 15 SW POU 20 NE ACY ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 35 E INW 45 N CEZ 30 ESE ASE 20 SW GLD 40 SSW HSI 15 WNW SPW 40 NE IWD 80 NNE MQT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL BE ENHANCED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ISOLATED MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE FEATURE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS MT. EARLY EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL MT WEDNESDAY SHOW LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 50 KT ACROSS MOST OF MT. THIS SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AS A STORM CLUSTER MOVES ENEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO FAR NW ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 12 17:19:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 12:19:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507121729.j6CHTthi026127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121727 SWODY2 SPC AC 121726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE MOT MOT DIK REJ CDR AIA GLD RSL SLN MHK FNB FOD RST AUW 20 E APN ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 45 E PHX FLG 40 SE PGA 4BL MTJ ASE 4FC LAR 60 S SHR COD IDA OWY 30 WNW RNO 50 ESE RBL MHS LMT BKE S80 FCA 65 NNW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN TO HUDSON BAY...AND BY BROAD AND QUASISTATIONARY DEEP-LAYER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. GIVEN BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...LOW SHOULD MEANDER SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY ACROSS SRN IL/LOWER OH VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE....NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND -- IS FCST TO MOVE ASHORE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN PERIOD...ACROSS NRN ROCKIES DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER SRN SASK/NRN MT BY 14/12Z. WEAK COMBINATION OF LEE-SIDE AND FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MT. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN MB ACROSS WRN ND INTO N-CENTRAL AND WRN WY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/WRN MT DURING AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN REGION OF NELY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS REGION. CONCERNS OVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM...THOUGH AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS SOME PART OF THIS REGION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APCHS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECT TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS BEHIND SFC FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NW-W OF SFC CYCLONE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES 50-55 KT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN MT...DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC FRONT. STRONG HEATING AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND LIMITED BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING AFTERNOON...THOUGH 60S F DEW POINTS AND MDT BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN OVER SOME AREAS OF ERN MT/WRN ND...E OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK INSOLATION RELATED HEATING...AND AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED ALONG WEAK MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE LINES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES YET TO BE ESTABLISHED. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TO OFFSET MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 DEG C/KM...TO YIELD MLCAPES LOCALLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. WEAKLY ENHANCED LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MULTICELLS OVER NRN AL/NRN GA/ERN TN AREA...RELATIVE TO ELSEWHERE AROUND CIRCULATION ENVELOPE OF LOW. ..EDWARDS.. 07/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 05:57:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 00:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507130608.j6D688em017301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130605 SWODY2 SPC AC 130604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND EXPAND SWD INTO NRN SD BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS CONVECTION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVES EWD INTO NW MN. PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-TROUGH IN CNTRL CANADA WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 06:59:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 01:59:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507130710.j6D7APAG008818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130705 SWODY2 SPC AC 130704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 20 N STC 15 NNE FSD 25 E AKO LIC 10 N LHX 25 SW GCK TOP 25 S MKE 65 ESE OSC ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 30 NW SOW 30 NE U17 30 SSE EVW 40 W BPI 20 ENE JAC 55 E BIL 65 NNE ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AND EXPAND SWD INTO NRN SD BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. INVERTED V-SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THREAT MAY EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS CONVECTION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVES EWD INTO NW MN. PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-TROUGH IN CNTRL CANADA WILL SLIDE ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FORECAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 13 17:22:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 12:22:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507131732.j6DHWti4006968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131731 SWODY2 SPC AC 131730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ELO BRD ATY HON PIR MBG 75 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL AUG BAF 30 N MSV UCA MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 70 N TUS INW GUP 55 ENE DRO RWL RIW 25 NNE WEY LVM BIL MLS GDV SDY 60 N ISN ...CONT... 60 NNE CMX IWD SPW SUX OFK MCK 55 ENE LAA LBL GAG END BVO COU STL HOP 50 NW CSV 45 WNW TRI 35 E 5I3 CRW 25 SW ZZV CMH 50 WSW FWA SBN GRR 65 SE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND AND NRN/ERN NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN MN AND ERN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC NW AND SRN BC -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD FROM SASK AND NRN MT TO MN AND NWRN ONT BY 15/12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IS PROGGED AMPLITUDE...RECENT RUNS OF OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...AS WELL AS 09Z SREF MEMBERS -- ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SRN PORTION OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN QUE EARLY IN PERIOD...CROSSING NERN NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THEREAFTER. IN SRN STREAM...BLOCKING GREAT BASIN HIGH AND BROAD/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER LOWER OH VALLEY EACH SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT POSITIONS. AT SFC...DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE LOWER OH VALLEY CYCLONE -- REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS -- AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH NRN STREAM TROUGH. EASTERN FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NERN NY...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SWD OVER ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NRN PORTION OF REMAINS OF DENNIS. OVER NRN PLAINS...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND AND WRN SD EARLY IN PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD ACROSS NERN/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO BY 15/12Z. ...ERN/NERN NY...NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR BOWS WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HINDER SFC HEATING IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY IN DAY. HOWEVER...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...EXPECT 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND INSOLATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION AS QUE TROUGH APPROACHES. WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY EXCEPT INVOF ANY OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT MAY LINGER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 15/00Z BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND POSTFRONTAL CAA. ...NRN PLAINS... TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH TIME OVER WARM SECTOR..AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM W...CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ONLY SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...INDICATING LARGELY LINEAR OR SEGMENT CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WIND IS PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH INTENSE SFC HEATING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH FRONTAL LIFT TO INITIATE TSTMS FARTHER S OVER SD/NEB...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WHILE CAPPING INCREASES. THERFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECOME MARGINAL SWWD THROUGH THAT AREA AND TOWARD CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS... SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE IS FCST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM OH VALLEY CYCLONE ACROSS AR AND N TX...POTENTIALLY SERVING AS ENHANCED FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD SERVE AS NRN BOUND FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIR MASS S OF THAT BOUNDARY AND INVOF SFC ROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLY HEATED DURING AFTERNOON...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. MESOSCALE/MULTICELL CONCENTRATIONS OF TSTMS MAY BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS MOVING SLOWLY AROUND SRN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 05:50:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 00:50:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507140601.j6E61qMP018396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140559 SWODY2 SPC AC 140559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ANW 25 NNW BFF 25 NNE DGW 20 NNE GCC 35 W REJ 40 SE REJ 45 SE MBG 60 E FAR 25 SW ELO 45 WNW IWD 55 NNE EAU 35 SSE FSD 35 S ANW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 SSW PWM ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 30 SE P38 45 SSW MLD BIL 35 E MLS 50 SW DIK 10 W Y22 50 NNE MBG 35 SSW TVF 35 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN ERN WY AND SRN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN ERN WY. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN SD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM. AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS ERN SD...MN AND NRN WI...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 14 17:31:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 12:31:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507141743.j6EHhFvL004479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141741 SWODY2 SPC AC 141740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DGW 10 N GCC 35 W REJ 40 SSW Y22 40 WNW PIR 35 NW VTN 25 WNW MHN BFF 20 NNE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 SE P38 40 SSW MLD 50 SW MQM 45 WSW 27U 50 E S80 15 SSW MSO 25 SW HVR 40 N HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 20 W P24 15 WSW BIS 25 W JMS 25 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SWD LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EXITING THIS REGION TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A MORE NEWD TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION... A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN RIDGE...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. STRENGTHENING HEIGHT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL W/NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM NERN MN SWWD TO WRN NEB/ NERN CO AT 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN MT/ERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED ATOP THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN WY INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ATOP THE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SSELY LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CANADA AND SUBSEQUENT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH A FEW MULTICELLS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 05:29:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 00:29:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507150541.j6F5fFP2020464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150538 SWODY2 SPC AC 150537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 20 S GFK 45 ENE MBG 30 S PHP 35 ENE CDR 20 NW CDR 45 W RAP 45 WSW REJ 10 W 4BQ 35 NW SHR 45 SW BIL 15 NNE 3HT 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FHU 45 W SAD 25 SSW FLG 25 SSE BCE 35 ENE SLC 15 NNW WEY 20 WNW BTM 50 S FCA 55 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ELO 50 NE ATY 40 E ANW 30 SW MCK 20 W AMA 30 WNW HOB 50 ESE GDP 25 SW FST 70 SW SJT 40 WNW SEP 10 E PRX FSM 30 N JLN 15 ENE FLV 30 NW LWD 30 WSW ALO 30 NE LSE 95 NNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC NW FRI NIGHT THEN EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE COMING IN SEVERAL PARTS WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DAKS AS EARLY AS SAT AFTN. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL STALL AND RETURN NWD FRI NIGHT/SAT AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREAD EWD. A LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD INTENSIFY AND MIGRATE INTO WRN ND/SD SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CNTRL MT LATE SAT AFTN...WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING SEWD INTO CNTRL ND...NWRN SD AND WY LATE SAT. VERY WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/ PLAINS ON SAT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH DRYLINE ACROSS THE DAKS. BUT...60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH THE STOUT EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE FIRST IN CANADA...THEN DEVELOP SEPARATELY OR BACKBUILD INTO WRN/CNTRL ND LATE SAT AFTN...IF SUFFICIENT CINH EROSION CAN OCCUR. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE VERY LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PROLONGED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT LATE SAT AFTN AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS EWD. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT INTO ND. INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. OTHER HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S...PROBABLY DEVELOPING IN THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND MOVING EWD INTO SWRN SD/NWRN NEB SAT EVE. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND INSTABILITY LESS THAN FARTHER N. THUS...STORMS MAY BE MORE MULTICELL IN THE SPECTRUM WITH POSSIBLE PULSE-TYPE SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ..RACY.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 15 17:18:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 12:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507151730.j6FHU8qi015459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151728 SWODY2 SPC AC 151726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 W RRT 35 NNE JMS 45 ENE MBG 30 S PHP 35 ENE CDR 20 NW CDR 45 W RAP 45 WSW REJ 25 NW SHR 15 SE BIL 60 ESE LWT 40 W GGW 55 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 ESE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FHU 45 W SAD 25 SSW FLG 25 SSE BCE 35 ENE SLC 15 NNW WEY 20 WNW BTM 50 S FCA 55 NNE FCA ...CONT... 20 E INL 50 NE ATY 25 N LBF 20 SSW IML 20 W AMA 30 WNW HOB 50 ESE GDP 25 SW FST 70 SW SJT 40 WNW SEP 45 SW ADM 25 W FSM 30 N JLN 30 S OMA 10 WSW SPW 20 WSW RST 35 N EAU 120 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN CANADA/PAC NW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE ESE ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF 40-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO FAR NRN ND/SRN CANADA BY 17/00Z. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD AND REACHING WRN ND TO SERN/SRN MT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED OVER SERN MT/NWRN SD AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW INTO CO. 25-30 KT OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEB TO ND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REACHING INTO ND/NRN MN AS A COUPLE OF WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARIES RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONTS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO NWRN MN AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF ND...AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER SRN CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER. FARTHER S...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-WRN ND INTO MT. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONTS OVER WRN/CENTRAL ND. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND N OF THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT INTO ND. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO 12Z SUNDAY. ..PETERS.. 07/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 05:39:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 00:39:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507160550.j6G5osst005747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160548 SWODY2 SPC AC 160547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 N CMX 25 SSW CMX 30 SSW CWA 15 S FNB 25 E RSL 20 WNW GCK 10 S LHX 25 SW PUB 45 WNW COS 20 E 4FC 35 ENE FCL 25 E SNY 20 W BBW 20 SE MHE 20 N ATY 10 N FAR 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 15 SW TUS 35 NNE TUS 45 S INW 50 SSW 4BL 10 S GJT 30 SW CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 45 SSW PIR 25 NNE PIR 25 E MBG 45 NNW MBG 15 NE Y22 60 NNW REJ 25 SW GDV 30 NW OLF 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 25 SSW BWD 30 WSW ADM 50 NW MLC 45 E BVO 40 N SGF 20 SSW SZL 30 SSE EMP 20 S P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 15 ESE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... SIXTY TO 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW TROUGH WILL SWING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD...REACHING WRN MN AND SERN SD BY EARLY SUN AFTN. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE GIVEN MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING. WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY CAPPED...BUT AS STRONG LINEAR FORCING/ASCENT APPROACH THE INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP MID-AFTN SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE BACKED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW W.R.T. THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS/UPPER MS VLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH A LESSENING SEVERE RISK WITH TIME. FARTHER SW...A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SAGGING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN NEB AND IN THE INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. ACROSS THESE AREAS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS PASS N OF THE REGION. BUT...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE FROM ERN CO INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SINCE THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT/EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RISKS OF HAIL/WIND MAY VERY WELL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...CNTRL GRTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST... AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ON SUN...THE WEAK UPPER LOW RESIDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE OWING TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F AND H5 TEMPERATURES MINUS 7-8C. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UPS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING PEAK HEATING. ..RACY.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 16 17:15:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 12:15:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507161727.j6GHR1v3015545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161725 SWODY2 SPC AC 161724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 NNE CMX 35 WNW MQT 35 ENE VOK 35 SSE OTM 15 NNW ICT 20 E LBL 55 SSE LHX 40 NW TAD 45 WNW COS 20 E 4FC 40 ENE DEN 50 ESE AKO 20 W EAR 20 SE MHE 20 N ATY 10 N FAR 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 25 SSW BWD 30 WSW ADM 50 NW MLC 45 E BVO 40 N SGF 55 SW SZL 20 W CNU 30 SSE P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 25 NW TUS 55 E PHX 30 WSW INW 50 SSW 4BL 10 S GJT 30 SW CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 45 SSW PIR 25 NNE PIR 25 E MBG 45 NNW MBG 15 NE Y22 60 NNW REJ 25 SW GDV 30 NW OLF 65 NNE GGW ...CONT... 50 N BML 15 ESE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...REACHING AN ERN WI/NRN MO/NRN NM LINE BY 18/12Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD... WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI/IA/ERN NEB. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MN AND EXTREME ERN SD...THEN DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN NEB AND NWRN IA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVE TO THE FRONT FAVORS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 04-06Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ERN CO... THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF KS INTO ERN CO. INITIALLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOA -6C/ WILL COOL SOMEWHAT AS THE SRN END OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT INTO PARTS OF KS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROMOTE FORMATION OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ORIENTED IN A SLOW MOVING BAND ACROSS KS INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 05:07:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507170519.j6H5JUac000652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170517 SWODY2 SPC AC 170516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ERI 20 NW ZZV 40 SE DAY 30 SSW BMG 10 SSE SLO 25 S SPI 25 SSE MMO 20 ESE MKG 55 NNE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 25 SSE TUS 35 NE TUS 50 WNW SAD 35 W SOW 40 W GUP 10 SE FMN 35 SE MTJ 35 ESE CAG 25 WSW CYS 35 WNW AKO 35 E LIC 50 ESE GLD 35 N CNK 35 NW DSM 10 SSW EAU 20 SW IWD 80 E ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MIDWEST... ...CNTRL GRTLKS SWWD TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GRTLKS REGION BY MON EVE. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY MON AND BE SITUATED FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 00Z TUE. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN PLAINS PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH EARLY MON AS STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT/LLJ TRANSLATE NWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO LWR MI AND INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL IL AND IND. ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE...THOUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /LESS THAN 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM/. NONETHELESS... PRESENCE OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODEST BUOYANCY BY MID-AFTN. THOUGH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK INHIBITION. BOTH SPEED/ DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS THE UPPER JET PEELS INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY. BUT...THE DEEP WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AOA 30 KTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME MON NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER GRTLKS AND OH VLY. FARTHER SW...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. HERE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FARTHER N. FURTHERMORE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY BECOME DIVERGENT...LESSENING CONVERGENCE BY LATE AFTN. THUS...WHILE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEAR LOW ATTM. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST NCEP SREF/NAM/GFS PAINT A MORE UNCERTAIN PICTURE CONCERNING SEVERE TSTMS PROBABILITIES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MON AFTN/EVE. SELY UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 20-25 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT...GIVEN INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE PLAINS REMAINING CAPPED. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS SHOULD HUG THE FRONT RANGE/MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AND WHAT COULD END UP BEING LESS TSTM COVERAGE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT LEVELS. ..RACY.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 17 16:59:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 11:59:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507171711.j6HHB4D9031698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171708 SWODY2 SPC AC 171707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW YNG 20 S MFD 35 NW LUK 20 SW MDH 30 ENE VIH 35 SSW UIN 40 WSW PIA 40 NE MKE 20 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 35 W SOW 40 W GUP 10 SE FMN 35 SE MTJ 30 W 4FC 15 S FCL 30 SW AKO 35 E LIC 50 ESE GLD 35 NE CNK 15 N DSM 45 WSW CWA 35 N RHI 45 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BEFORE LIFTING ENEWD INTO NERN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY EXTENDING BY 00Z FROM NRN LAKE HURON..LOWER MI..CENTRAL IL..SWRN MO..TX PANHANDLE THEN NNWWD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. ...GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY... SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN UPR MI ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WI AND IA INTO NRN MO AND KS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERMIT AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 90F DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MI/WRN OH SWWD ACROSS IL INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO. STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL AUGMENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION OF HEATING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM LOWER MI..IN..OH..IL INTO ERN MO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...ERN CO INTO NERN NM AND WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES... LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/NERN NM/SWRN KS AND THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. IN ADDITION...PREDICTED WIND PROFILES INDICATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO NWLY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. THIS IS REFLECTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM OUTPUT FROM THE SREF. 12Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR THE ERN SLOPES OF CO AND NM BUT THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE PROCESSES IN BMJ PARAMETERIZATION THAT EXCESSIVELY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BELOW 500 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS OUTLOOK BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. ..WEISS.. 07/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 18 05:39:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 00:39:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507180551.j6I5pDjW012734@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180548 SWODY2 SPC AC 180548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 50 S FLG 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 10 S DEN 15 SSW LIC 35 SSW LHX 45 SW CAO 45 E TCC AMA 50 NNE CSM 45 NNE JLN 45 ENE JEF 20 S LAF 50 NNW MFD 65 NW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CMX 40 SW IWD 25 SE MKT 35 NE SUX 15 ESE ANW 30 WNW VTN 15 SSE PHP 60 N PHP BIS 45 N MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CROSS THE GRTLKS REGION MON...THEN EJECT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA WHILE WEAKENING ON TUE. SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...REACHING WRN NY EARLY TUE AFTN...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE NERN STATES ON TUE...OWING PARTIALLY TO REMNANTS OF DENNIS. THIS WILL LIMIT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOB 6 DEG C PER KM/ ACROSS THE REGION. BUOYANCY WILL BE LARGELY MODULATED BY MAGNITUDE OF INSOLATION AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT DEEP BUT SKINNY CAPE. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO SLOWLY DEVELOP...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT MORE LIKELY ALONG LEE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. STRONGER FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SERN CANADA WITH H5 WINDS GENERALLY AOB 25 KTS FARTHER S. RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT LIMITED HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN TROPICAL NATURE TO THE AIR MASS. IF A TSTM CLUSTER CAN BECOME ORIENTED N-S...THE WSWLY MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BOWING STRUCTURES WITH PERHAPS A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. THE SEVERE THREATS DO NOT SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. ...NRN PLAINS... THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF ARE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINLY PASS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST H5 WINDS WILL SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A LEE-TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKS TUE AFTN AND A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD...PROBABLY REACHING FAR NRN MN/ND BY WED MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH TUE...BENEATH A STRENGTHENING EML. THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODELS/NCEP SREF THAT ISOLD SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED BANDS OF TSTMS TO FORM DOWNSTREAM FROM CAP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MN AND THE ERN DAKS OVERNIGHT TUE...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM...40-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...GIVEN AMPLE CAPE-BEARING SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON THE PROSPECTS FOR DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT...OR HOW WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NCEP SREF SUGGESTS. ...DEEP S TX... OFFICIAL NHC FCST HAS HURCN EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS TAMAULIPAS STATE IN MEXICO...AROUND 100 NM S OF KBRO BY LATE TUE NIGHT. OUTER BANDS OF THE HURCN WILL LIKELY REACH DEEP S TX TUE EVE. THOUGH HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST OVER NERN MEXICO...THE THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO ACROSS DEEP S TX GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. ..RACY.. 07/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 05:59:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 00:59:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507190611.j6J6B4xK028632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190609 SWODY2 SPC AC 190607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE APN 20 WNW HTL 40 SSW MKE 15 SSE DBQ 45 NNE DSM 30 ENE SUX 25 ENE FSD 50 SSW AXN 45 WSW CMX 125 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE COD 40 WSW COD 20 SSE DLN 45 W MSO 75 ENE 63S 45 N FCA 60 W GTF 30 N LVM 45 WNW SHR 35 W SHR 30 SSE COD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER 30 ENE SAC 40 SE RBL 35 NE RBL 60 E MHS 50 SE 4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY 30 NNW DRA 35 WSW LAS 45 NNW EED 60 SSE SGU 45 W 4HV 15 ENE VEL 35 NE CAG 15 NNE FCL 25 NNW LIC 35 WSW LHX 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV 15 ENE SZL 10 S LWD 25 S OLU 50 ENE ANW 20 SW ABR 20 W FAR 15 NW INL ...CONT... 20 W CLE 20 W EKN 40 NNE RIC 15 N WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION... ...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION... LARGELY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SHOULD DIG SEWD INTO SRN ALTA...THEN STREAK EWD INTO NWRN ONT BY WED AFTN. SRN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE UPPER MS VLY FROM LATE TUE INTO WED EVE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION AND UPPER MS VLY BY LATE WED. BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MN LATE TUE /DAY 1 PERIOD/ AND BE ONGOING EARLY WED ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. IT APPEARS THAT THE LLJ/NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND MOVE NWD INTO ONT...IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THUS...THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SHOULD BE LEFT TO WARM CONSIDERABLY. PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THOUGH THE MAIN PVA WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA...H5 FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK...ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT AND ANTICIPATED HEATING WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION. STORMS WILL DEVELOP MOST RAPIDLY IN THE WEAKER CAP OVER THE UPPER GRTLKS...WITH LESSER COVERAGE FARTHER W. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. BUT...WSWLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AID IN EVOLUTION INTO SW-NE ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD BOW AS THEY MATURE AND TRANSLATE ACROSS WI TOWARD MI OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME/EWD EXTENT. THE WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BLOWING FROM A HIGH LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING TSTMS LATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/SRN MN. THESE STORMS WOULD MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ...SRN AZ... AS THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES E-W...ENELY H7-H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AOA 25 KTS ACROSS SRN AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...OWING TO THE UPSWING IN DAILY CONVECTION SINCE THE WEEKEND. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN PROPAGATE SWWD TOWARD PHX/TUS DURING THE EVE WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED...PENDING DAY 1 TSTM EVOLUTION AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE. ...S TX... REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE WWD INTO NERN MEXICO THROUGH WED. WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE STRONGER WINDS COLLAPSE TO THE CENTER. BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS S TX WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 19 17:17:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 12:17:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507191728.j6JHSZVC016846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191726 SWODY2 SPC AC 191725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ANJ 25 NNW HTL 10 S MKE 25 NNW BRL 40 SSE OMA 15 ESE OLU 30 N YKN 50 NW RWF 25 NW IWD 115 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CLE 45 WNW EKN 40 NNE RIC 15 N WAL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 40 NNW DAL 40 NW FYV JLN 50 S OJC 35 SSE TOP 25 SE SLN 40 S RSL 45 S HLC 30 SSE MCK 40 SSW BBW 45 NE ANW 25 NW HON 15 SSE FAR 15 NW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SE RAL 10 N RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 NNE OXR 25 SSW BFL 20 NNE BFL 45 ESE FAT 55 NE MER 50 WNW RBL 20 E CEC 45 ESE OTH 60 ESE EUG 40 S RDM 25 NNW 4LW 40 ESE 4LW 70 NNW WMC 30 SW OWY 10 SSE EKO 55 NW ELY 30 WNW ELY 65 WSW ELY 30 NNW DRA 25 ESE DRA 25 E LAS 60 SSE SGU 60 SE PGA 35 NE 4BL 20 SSE CAG 10 SE FCL 30 ENE LIC 15 WNW LAA 30 S RTN 35 ENE 4CR 35 W ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE WI/MN/IA AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD MN/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN SD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP SWD WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 20/12Z INVOF MN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NW IA AREA ON THE NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON...WHILE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...SRN AZ... ELY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH FORMING OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE RIM/MOUNTAINS OF SE AZ TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LOW-LEVEL WLY/SWLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL ELY FLOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A PORTION OF SRN AZ MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES. ...DEEP S TX... HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NE MEXICO EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER TOMORROW. RESIDUAL STRONG FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER S TX DURING THE DAY...WHERE RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW...DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFIC TRACK/INTENSITY OF EMILY NEAR AND AFTER LANDFALL. ..THOMPSON.. 07/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 05:46:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 00:46:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507200558.j6K5wKKc028303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200555 SWODY2 SPC AC 200554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE LNR 10 W BEH 10 SSW FWA 45 ESE IND 30 NNW SDF 20 ENE MVN 30 NNW STL 25 N OTM 20 NNW ALO 35 SSE RST 10 NNE LNR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ELO 15 SW MSP FSD 20 S 9V9 30 NE PIR 60 SE JMS 25 SE GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CZZ 30 SE RAL 25 ENE OXR 15 ENE SMX 25 E PRB 45 WNW BFL 35 NNE BFL 40 NE FAT 25 SSW TVL 40 WNW TVL 50 SW SVE 30 N RBL 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 25 WNW PDX 20 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKO 25 SE OJC FNB 45 SW EAR 15 NNW GLD CAO 35 SW HOB 55 NNE P07 25 SSW SEP 35 ENE DUA 35 NE MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW EPM 25 S MWN 10 SW POU 25 SW DOV 35 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN RED RVR VLY INTO MN... ...NRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON THU WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS ALONG THE NRN TIER AND CANADA. WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE NERN THIRD OF THE NATION BY EARLY FRI. EACH IMPULSE THAT MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL HAVE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS THAT SETTLE SWD...LIKELY AUGMENTED BY TSTM CLUSTERS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AND MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A MCS OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...AIDED BY WSWLY LLJ. THE UPPER IMPULSE TIED TO THE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 ACTIVITY WILL DEPART EARLY IN THE DAY...RESULTING IN WEAKENING LLJ/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD FROM LOWER MI TOWARD THE UPPER OH VLY DURING THE AFTN. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /REMOVED FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN CANADA/. BUT...MULTICELL CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. FARTHER W...PERSISTENT /BUT WEAK/ WLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE PLAINS. TRAILING PORTION OF THE OUTFLOWS MAY BE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION WHERE LOCAL CONVERGENCE BREECHES THE CAP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY COULD ALSO CONGEAL AND PROPAGATE SEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS GOING AGAINST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...NAMELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THUS...HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK ATTM. GIVEN SHORT WAVELENGTHS...NEXT WAVE WILL ALREADY BE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA BY LATE FRI AFTN. RAPID RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD ADVECT VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STOUT CAP...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN RED RVR VLY INTO PARTS OF NWRN MN. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS. ...SWRN STATES... TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE FRI. ELY FLOW AOA 20 KTS AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE LOWER CO RVR VLY LATER IN THE EVENING. ...PAC NW... AS MID-LEVEL WAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM OFF THE PAC COAST...A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD FROM SRN CA. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...HEATING ALONG THE CASCADES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN. DEEP S-SWLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN...OR MOVE OFF THE EAST. VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND ENEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN WA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE EJECTS NEWD. ..RACY.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 20 17:22:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 12:22:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507201734.j6KHYD85014764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201731 SWODY2 SPC AC 201730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CMX 45 W RHI 30 NNW RST 30 NE MCW 45 NE ALO 20 SSW MSN 25 W BEH 15 SSW FWA 40 NNE SDF 25 NNE BWG CKV 40 SW PAH 25 ESE VIH 55 SW IRK 10 SE FNB 20 NNW EAR 35 SSW ANW 15 SE MBG 40 S DVL 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MKO 35 N CNU MHK 45 ESE AKO 15 WSW LIC 25 NNW TAD 20 NNW CNM 55 NNE P07 25 SSW SEP 30 NE DUA 30 NNE MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW EPM 25 S MWN 10 SW POU 25 SW DOV 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 55 N S80 75 WSW BOI 35 NNE WMC 25 S EKO 15 E ENV 20 WSW JAC 45 ESE LVM 25 W MLS 40 NNE REJ 20 NE Y22 25 NE BIS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 S CZZ 30 SE RAL 25 ENE OXR 15 ENE SMX 25 E PRB 45 WNW BFL 35 NNE BFL 40 NE FAT 45 N FAT 35 WSW TVL 60 SE RBL 35 SSW RBL 40 NNW UKI 25 SSE EKA 40 SSE OTH 25 WNW PDX 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN.... ...NRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY AREA... A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL EXPAND EWD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WESTERLIES REMAINING NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ONE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ONTARIO...WITH A SRN EXTENSION OVER WRN WI...WILL MOVE EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC AND LOSE AMPLITUDE...WHILE A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS FROM ROUGHLY OH TO NEB. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD NRN MN/WI. THE SCENARIO FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE AFFECTS OF ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL FORM AND MOVE SEWD TOMORROW ACROSS IL/IND/KY. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER NW...OTHER STORM CLUSTERS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NEB...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. LASTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION AND A FEW LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND EVENTS BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN...WITH CONVECTION AND SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD TOWARD NW WI LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN AZ AREA... ELY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER AZ TO THE S/SW OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW-LEVELS HAVE BEEN MOISTENING ACROSS SRN AZ THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHILE A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER W TX SHOULD MOVE WWD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SRN AZ TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM PROPAGATION WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH THE 30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SRN AZ AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER DAY 1 UPDATES...PENDING THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...ORE CASCADES AREA... UPSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HIGH...A MID LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 35 N AND 133 W WILL EJECT NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE TO WRN ORE BY LATE THURSDAY. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY ACROSS THE PAC NW...THE EJECTING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME NOW SPREADING WNWWD OVER SRN NV/SE CA. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE...ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS WRN ORE. ..THOMPSON.. 07/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 05:39:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 00:39:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507210551.j6L5pVUU016878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210549 SWODY2 SPC AC 210548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW VTN 35 WSW PHP 40 NNE REJ 20 ESE DIK 50 ESE BIS 50 NNW ABR 10 S ATY 20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 40 N ANW 25 NNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SAN 15 SE RAL 25 S PMD 35 NNE SBA 40 E MRY 30 W MER 35 E SAC 50 SW SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 SW LMT 35 NW MFR 15 NW EUG 35 S OLM 65 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 60 S DLH 20 SW EAU 20 SE LNR 35 WNW CGX 30 WSW BEH 10 SW AZO 30 W MBS 80 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FST 35 E SJT 10 NW FTW 40 WNW FYV 15 SSE OJC 35 NNW FNB 20 WSW OLU 30 WNW LBF 30 WSW AKO 45 NW TAD 40 N 4CR 50 NNW GDP 15 ENE FST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ND AND SD... ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW NOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SRN CANADA WLYS...ACTING TO FLATTEN NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH ON FRI. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD FROM THE DESERT SW. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN ID ACROSS PARTS OF MT. MEANWHILE...THERE IS REASONABLE EVIDENCE IN THE SREF/ETA/GFS THAT TSTMS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION FRI AFTN. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED INITIALLY BUT COULD ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD DURING THE EVE. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE INCREASING LLJ WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SWRN STATES... NRN EXTENT OF REMNANT EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NWRN MEXICO/AZ ON FRI AFTN/EVE. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE INJECTION OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /CLOUDS-PCPN/ WILL REDUCE INSOLATION OVER MOST OF AZ ON FRI. MOREOVER...IT APPEARS WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE...ACTING TO POTENTIALLY CAP SURFACE BASED PARCELS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HOWEVER... TSTMS WILL BUILD ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE WWD OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS SWRN AZ/ SRN CA WHERE LOW-LEVELS COULD BE MORE UNSTABLE AND WILL RESEMBLE INVERTED-V STRUCTURES...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY IN THESE IMPORTANT VARIABLES PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...NERN STATES... SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR AS GREAT AS MODELS INDICATED EARLY IN THE WEEK. DIFFICULT-TO-TIME MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRAZE NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND/NY IN WAKE OF ONE IMPULSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE SEWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH SAT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OH VLY ON FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS OVER QUE. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF MAINE ON FRI. AT LEAST WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/LEE-TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN TSTM INITIATION. GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT... ISOLD PULSE TYPE SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL. THREATS SEEM TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..RACY.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 21 17:22:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:22:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507211734.j6LHYhiW016798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 35 SE DVL 45 ENE ABR 25 ESE MHE 60 W YKN 45 WNW VTN 20 NNW CDR 70 SSE 81V 25 SSE GCC 20 WNW 4BQ 35 SW GDV 20 ESE SDY 60 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IPL 15 NE TRM 55 W EED 40 S LAS 40 NNE IGM 60 NNW PRC 30 NNE PHX 75 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FST 35 E SJT 10 NW FTW 40 WNW FYV 15 SSE OJC 35 NNW FNB 20 WSW OLU 30 WNW LBF 30 WSW AKO 45 NW TAD 40 N 4CR 50 NNW GDP 15 ENE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SAN 10 WSW RAL 25 S PMD 35 NNE SBA 40 E MRY 30 W MER 35 E SAC 50 SW SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 SW LMT 35 NW MFR 15 NW EUG 35 S OLM 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 60 S DLH 20 SW EAU 20 SE LNR 35 WNW CGX 30 WSW BEH 10 SW AZO 30 W MBS 80 NE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER BAND OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. PACIFIC TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. IN THE EAST...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES. IN THE SOUTHWEST...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING WWD AND INTO AZ ON DAY 2. AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE TROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM QUEBEC SWWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THEN NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...NERN WY/SERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... MODELS DIFFER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AT 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...WITH CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE WRN STATES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN DAKOTAS BY 23/00Z IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS LEAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL MT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EMILY WILL SPREAD ACROSS AZ ON FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MAINLY ERN AZ EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED SOME BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION...SUPPORTING STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN AZ INTO ERN PORTION OF SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CA...WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE WWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS... THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE ONGOING MCS... CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN LAKE MI...WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS OH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 23/00Z. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD WITHIN NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN RIDGE. AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NEWD ALONG THE OH/TN VALLEYS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NJ AND NERN STATES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE OH MCS TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. FARTHER SW...WEAK ASCENT WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER...BUT AT LEAST 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WOULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...NEW ENGLAND... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 06:03:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 01:03:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507220615.j6M6FlUG031907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220614 SWODY2 SPC AC 220613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E APN 10 W OSC 30 WNW MBL 40 S LSE 35 SW SPW 20 ESE YKN 15 ENE MHE 25 NNE ATY 35 SSE GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MTC DTW 40 SW FDY 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 35 WSW JAC 35 SE MQM 60 E S80 55 NNE S80 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 NNE DRT 50 SSW CDS 15 SSW CSM 10 S JLN 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST / LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN U.S. / SRN CANADA THIS PERIOD...WHILE LARGE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ATLANTIC. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE BRINGS A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS -- PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS -- SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...MAINTAINED BY STRONG / PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY CAPPING INVERSION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON -- FROM MN WSWWD ACROSS SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION...WITH SOME INCREASE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR FRONT AS SECOND BRANCH OF LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG /45 TO 65 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG THE CANADA / U.S. BORDER...WITH SRN EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS SD / SRN MN / THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO ACCOMPANY STORMS / MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION N OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST...SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE S OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR APPEARS TO EXIST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR ALLOWING MCS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME GREATER. MEANWHILE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...AS ENE-WSW ORIENTATION OF COLD FRONT WOULD SUGGEST VEERED / SWLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WITHIN WARM SECTOR THUS LIMITING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..GOSS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 22 17:33:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 12:33:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507221744.j6MHiwR6024670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221741 SWODY2 SPC AC 221740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E APN 10 W OSC 30 WNW MBL 40 S LSE 35 SW SPW 20 ESE YKN 25 WNW MHE 40 E ABR 35 SSE GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MTC DTW 40 SW FDY 20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 NNE DRT 50 SSW CDS 15 SSW CSM 10 S JLN 50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE ALM 45 WSW ELP ...CONT... 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55 SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 35 WSW JAC 35 SE MQM 60 E S80 55 NNE S80 75 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONGEST BAND OF ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL STATES... WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CANADA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TO UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE AFTER 24/00Z...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS SRN CANADA. PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS AND 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NRN STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ AS IT TRANSLATES EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW...EXPECTED TO HAVE STRONGER DEEPENING SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MAINLY ND IN REGION OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. GIVEN THIS LLJ WILL PERSIST AT SIMILAR STRENGTHS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN MN TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE S OF THE MEAN WIND...GIVEN A STRONG SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THIS REGION. THUS...STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED...POSING A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING THIS CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN SD/WRN MN TOWARD 00Z. A STRONGLY SHEARED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME QUICKLY LINEAR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN INTO WI. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO NRN NEB...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN AN MCS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... POTENTIALLY MOVING SEWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 05:56:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 00:56:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507230608.j6N68jZT001158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230606 SWODY2 SPC AC 230605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 30 NNE UCA 30 N EWR 20 ENE DOV 35 S MRB 20 WNW EKN 20 SE MIE 10 SW PIA 25 NE FNB 35 SSW EAR 25 SSW SNY 35 NNE CYS 45 NNE CPR 35 N SHR 45 NNE 4BQ 10 SSW REJ 15 SW VTN 55 WSW YKN 25 S FSD 25 SSW MSP 45 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW MRF 30 E CVS 10 S LBL 35 ENE HUT 45 WSW JEF 40 S BMG 45 NNE TYS 30 SE HSV 30 SSW PGO 55 SSW SJT 45 W DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 50 S EKO 55 NE ENV 25 WNW EVW 40 NNE VEL 55 SSE RWL 50 SSE WRL 30 E MQM 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE ISN 45 ESE P24 45 ESE MBG ATY 30 NE BRD 15 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BML PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN 3/4 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAST / FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE NRN 1/4 OF THE U.S. / SRN CANADA. FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THESE WLYS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MANITOBA / ONTARIO THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW. WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS NEB SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E WITH TIME AS WRN FRINGES OF BOUNDARY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NY WWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES TO SRN NEB. ...GREAT LAKES REGION / MIDWEST WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS / MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH STORMS LIKELY ELEVATED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N AND E OF LOW / WARM FRONT. THOUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WHERE GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. SHOULD STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS WARM FRONT / INTO WARM SECTOR...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FURTHER W / ALONG COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI WWD INTO NEB / KS. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY WWD INTO THE PLAINS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INVOF BOUNDARY -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WHERE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP. WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS N OF BOUNDARY...MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. FINALLY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ATTM TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...THUS LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN WY / WRN SD...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE / SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THIS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 23 17:23:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 12:23:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507231735.j6NHZEw0028113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231733 SWODY2 SPC AC 231732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ART 30 NNE UCA 30 N EWR 20 ENE DOV 15 SSE DCA 35 NW RIC 25 SW SHD 35 SE UNI 30 S CMH 20 SE MIE 10 SW PIA 25 NE FNB 35 SSW EAR 25 SSW SNY 35 NNE CYS 45 NNE CPR 35 N SHR 45 NNE 4BQ 10 SSW REJ 55 ESE PHP 20 ESE YKN 30 NE MCW VOK 35 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 55 SSW SJT 30 SSW PGO 30 SE HSV 45 NNE TYS 40 S BMG 45 WSW JEF 35 ENE HUT 10 S LBL 30 E CVS 55 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT 35 ESE BAM 25 WNW TWF 25 NW LND 55 ENE JAC 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 45 ESE P24 40 WNW ABR 35 ENE ATY 55 SW DLH 65 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 15 ENE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION WWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN 3/4 OF THE WRN-CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW REMAINING ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA. ONE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW ALONG THE BC COAST...DIGS SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES BY THE LATTER HALF OF DAY 2. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO IA AND THEN WWD ACROSS NEB AT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E ON SUNDAY AS THE NRN PORTION SPREADS EWD REACHING NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING WRN PORTION SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 25/00Z AND INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO LOWER MI...WITH THIS COMPLEX LOCATED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG THE NOSE OF A 60 KT WLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS LLJ WILL WEAKEN SOME... BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THUS...ONGOING MCS MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY...BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WV TO WRN VA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS... SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS PRODUCING MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NEB INTO SD AND POTENTIALLY EWD TO SRN MN/IA...AS A NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WWD TO NRN UT AREA... NRN EXTENT OF LOWER-MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AIDED BY STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW...BUT FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW MULTICELLS. A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...MID ATLANTIC/GULF COAST STATES WWD TO EAST TX... MODERATE NELY TO ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE ERN TO SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO ERN TX. MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL TRANSLATE SW AND W WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE PERTURBATIONS...SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 05:58:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 00:58:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507240610.j6O6AkCK006780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240609 SWODY2 SPC AC 240607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BUF 25 SSW JHW ZZV 40 E BMG 15 WNW UIN 20 NW FLV 35 W HLC 15 SSE AKO 35 ESE CYS 55 SSE SHR 40 NE COD 40 ESE BIL 15 SW REJ 15 WSW PHP 15 W MHE 35 NE EAU 15 W PLN 40 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 45 NNW EED 55 W P38 55 NNW P38 10 SW DPG 15 NNW MLD 40 ENE SUN 55 NNE BOI 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CTB 50 SSW HVR 75 NE LWT 30 W SDY 40 NNW P24 25 WNW DVL 45 WNW HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 50 WSW SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX PGO 45 NNW SGF 10 N EMP 50 SSE DDC 60 S LBL 35 N HOB 65 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWESTERN STATES WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN / DIG SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ...GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AND POSSIBLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME OVER THE MO VALLEY...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST / MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...POSING A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON -- INITIALLY FROM WI SSWWD INTO SERN SD / NRN NEB...AS STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS INVOF DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI / SEWD ACROSS IA AND NEB WITH TIME...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN EVOLVING ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN SD / WRN NEB / NERN CO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE -- PARTICULARLY FROM WI EWD INTO UPPER MI WITHIN ZONE OF MODERATELY-STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THREAT LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STORMS WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...THOUGH THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...AS FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. ...NEW ENGLAND... NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THOUGH IT BREAKS OUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE...WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF OVERACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT NEITHER THE NAMKF RUN NOR THE GFS SHOW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN NEW ENGLAND ATTM. ..GOSS.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 24 18:40:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005 13:40:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507241852.j6OIqTYg000769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241724 SWODY2 SPC AC 241723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BUF 25 SSW JHW ZZV 40 E BMG 15 WNW UIN 20 NW FLV 35 W HLC 15 SSE AKO 35 ESE CYS 55 SSE SHR 40 NE COD 40 ESE BIL 15 SW REJ 25 NW PHP 10 N HON 35 NE EAU 15 W PLN 40 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 50 WSW SJT 35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX PGO 45 NNW SGF 10 N EMP 50 SSE DDC 60 S LBL 35 N HOB 65 S MRF ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 45 NNW EED 55 W P38 55 NNW P38 10 SW DPG 15 NNW MLD 40 ENE SUN 55 NNE BOI 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 20 NE DVL 45 WNW HIB 50 E DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INLAND OVER BC...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NWRN INTO NORTH CENTRAL STATES. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS ORE/WA...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THIS WEAKENING WAVE...AN ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL BE A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND SE/E TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF ND INTO NWRN SD. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO SRN MN/IA. THE LATTER ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE LLJ DECREASES IN STRENGTH MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN RE-INTENSIFY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE...A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND/OR THE MORNING ND THUNDERSTORM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS A LINEAR FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. FARTHER W...MOIST ENELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT TO WY BENEATH INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MONDAY EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS...MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT 12Z MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS ME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL OUTCOME REMAINS LOW. THUS...WILL NOT ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 25 05:44:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 00:44:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507250556.j6P5u6c7023451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250553 SWODY2 SPC AC 250552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JFK 25 W CXY 15 NNW JKL 35 WSW BNA 30 SW DYR 50 SSE HRO 25 S PNC 35 ESE ICT 25 WNW COU 35 SSE MMO 20 SSE JXN 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 15 W MSS 20 NNE BTV 15 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CRP 20 W NIR 55 S CLL 25 W POE 20 E HEZ 45 NNW JAN 10 NW GLH 30 NNW GGG 55 SE BWD 15 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW YUM 50 WNW EED 55 NW DRA 55 WNW P38 25 W CDC 20 SE U17 25 W GJT 50 ESE RKS 55 ESE WRL 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW CMX 60 S DLH 35 NNE HON 40 SSE PHP 10 E AIA 15 W IML 50 NNE HLC 40 SSE OMA 40 S ALO 20 SE OSH 25 ESE ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN KS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FRONT IS FASTER / MUCH FURTHER S ACCORDING TO THE NAM THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SWATH OF 35 TO 40 KT FLOW...WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NERN CONUS SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING NEAR FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE / INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. THOUGH COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG STRONG FRONT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WITH SHEAR GENERALLY LIMITED WITHIN WARM SECTOR...STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED / SHORT-LIVED IN GENERAL. SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED OVERALL. GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST FROM PARTS OF IN / OH ACROSS WRN PA INTO NY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONGER FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS MAY YIELD MODERATE / UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY DIURNALLY DECREASES. ...CO FRONT RANGE... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS. WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE. ..GOSS.. 07/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 26 05:39:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 00:39:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507260608.j6Q683rK017545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260605 SWODY2 SPC AC 260605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IPL 15 ESE TRM 10 S DAG 45 SSW LAS 45 SSW GCN 75 S 4BL 40 S MTJ 20 E EGE 45 E DGW 55 WSW RAP 40 NNE SHR 25 NE HLN 80 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ 30 WNW GRB 40 NNW VOK 25 N MCW 35 SW OTG 50 W EAR 10 SSE HLC 25 SE LBL 40 ENE TCC 15 N PVW 10 ENE CDS 25 SW OKC 15 SE SGF 15 WNW SLO 20 W CMH 20 E BGM 40 W BGR 20 N CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEY REGION INTO W TX WILL CONTINUE SEWD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SRN TX. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND S TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WW TO THE TN VALLEY... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INVOF FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE CONVECTION. THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL...DEGREE OF THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM. ...CO FRONT RANGE... MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST / VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS INVOF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY... WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG FRONT ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AIDED BY MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...AND SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 27 16:58:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 11:58:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507271727.j6RHRuhx026245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271726 SWODY2 SPC AC 271725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N INW 50 NE GUP ALS 35 NW FCL CPR RIW EVW 25 NW BCE 50 N INW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IPL 25 NNE LAX NID RNO 4LW BNO 45 ESE EPH 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 70 NW DVL JMS ABR 10 NNE BKX MKT 45 N EAU 30 SSE CMX ...CONT... 75 NE MTC MKG 10 SSE RFD 40 ENE P35 FNB 55 N GCK TCC TCS 10 NNW ELP 10 SE MRF TPL 55 WSW TYR 10 NNE TXK PBF 10 E BNA 15 SSW CRW 10 SSW MGW IPT PSF 15 ESE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BEFORE STRONGER WESTERLIES BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...MODELS SUGGEST ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTH...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH EASTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING PATTERN...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STALL/WEAKEN...BUT BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM HUMID AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO VICINITY OF NEW SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/EAST OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLATEAU...WITH PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WEAK FLOW/SHEAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS EXPECTED ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/ NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MATERIALIZES. MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS UPPER JET INTENSIFIES FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. BUT...FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT...WELL AFTER ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING/STABILIZATION. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL WARMING/STRENGTHENING OF CAP MAY OCCUR LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AS CAP BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...PROVIDING DOUBT AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME...BUT SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG. ..KERR.. 07/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 05:49:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 00:49:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507280618.j6S6IIFL018565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280616 SWODY2 SPC AC 280615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 45 SSW FAT 25 NW TVL 40 SSE MHS CEC 40 SE EUG 20 WNW MSO 20 WNW LWT 20 NE SHR 45 ENE 81V 25 E MLS 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CMX 40 NW RHI 15 SSW MCW 10 E OMA 55 ENE HLC 25 NNE DDC 55 WSW TCC 10 NNW DMN 40 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WNW MRF 55 SE GDP 10 SSE SJT 15 SSE TPL 50 ENE ACT 30 NNW TYR 25 S TXK 40 N MLU 15 S MEM 35 SSW CKV 35 ENE BWG 30 NNW LOZ 10 NE CRW 10 SE MGW PSB 25 S BGM 15 WSW PSF BOS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WHILE SHIFTING EWD. MEANWHILE...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND WITH TIME. SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST -- PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SRN AZ / CA...FROM ORE EWD SRN ID / THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN MT / WRN WY...AND PERHAPS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWD INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INVOF REMNANT FRONT THIS PERIOD...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF VA / NC JUST N OF BOUNDARY AND 10 TO 15 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS...A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ...SRN AZ... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AZ THIS PERIOD...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH SMALL BELT OF 25 KT ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS SRN AZ S OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ...PARTS OF ORE EWD INTO SWRN MT / WRN WY... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY WEAK FEATURES ALOFT ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER HIGH. WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION N OF RIDGE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...NERN ND / NRN MN... AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS MOST THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A GREAT DEGREE. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY MOVE SEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION / SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND ELEVATED...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS. ..GOSS.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 28 16:47:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 11:47:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507281716.j6SHGKUs006938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281713 SWODY2 SPC AC 281713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W PMD 35 SSW FAT 55 E UKI 50 WNW MHS 60 NNE MFR 10 ENE S80 30 WNW 3HT 40 WNW SHR 25 NE SHR 20 NNE 4BQ 65 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E ELO 40 NNE ALO 25 WNW IRK 10 SW MKC 20 W SLN 50 ENE LAA 10 S 4SL 15 SE GNT 45 WSW ONM ALM 30 S MAF 25 NNW AUS 50 NW POE GLH 15 ENE DYR 35 WSW SDF 25 WNW HLG 25 SSE BGM 20 NNW POU 30 NNE EWB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD OSCILLATE NWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... AN UPPER-RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS AZ AND UT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY IN AZ WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS PROFILES WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL US. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 2 SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NE ND AND NW MN DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 07/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 05:38:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 00:38:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507290607.j6T67870008047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290604 SWODY2 SPC AC 290603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ MTW 20 N MKE MSN LSE MSP STC TVF 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LGB PRB 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 40 NNE 3DU LWT MLS DIK 40 SE P24 65 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNE MBS AZO 35 NW LAF SPI STJ RSL 35 SSE RTN ROW INK JCT 35 NNE SAT 30 S CLL POE ESF UOX 10 E JKL EKN HGR 20 NW TTN 20 SW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITH MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN ESEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER HIGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN ELY AND SLY FLOW ALOFT/MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW NWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ...UPPER MIDWEST... AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO TX WILL PREVENT RICHER GULF MOISTURE FROM SPREADING NWD....WITH DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY LIKELY OVER ESTIMATED ON NAM. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER/MID 60 DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MN/NWRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WARM MID TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY AND AIR MASS SHOULD BE CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SLIGHT LOWERING IN HEIGHTS SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTHENING NWLY WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 500-300 MB INDICATE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD FROM MN INTO WI OVERNIGHT. ...PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND IA... MODELS INDICATE THAT IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM WY INTO SRN SD/NEB LATE SATURDAY WITHIN 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN A DEEP AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ...ERN COAST STATES FROM DELMARVA SWD INTO GA... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALOFT...THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS. ...AZ/SRN CA... DIFFICULT TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN 20-25 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WINDS ALOFT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE WWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS. IF THIS OCCURS...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE-600 MB WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 29 16:25:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 11:25:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507291654.j6TGsA22010746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291651 SWODY2 SPC AC 291651 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ANJ 15 W TVC 15 SW OSH 25 ENE LSE 15 SE STC 25 SW AXN 20 SE ABR 20 SE MBG 45 SSW BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LGB 45 ESE PRB 40 NE MRY 50 N UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 35 SSW GDV 35 WNW DIK 40 NW P24 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 35 E SBN 25 NNE BMI IRK RSL 35 W CAO 50 SE LVS ROW INK JCT 35 NNE SAT 30 S CLL 45 E LFK 10 NE ELD 25 WNW MEM 20 NNW JKL 25 SSW AOO 40 ENE CXY 25 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ONE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ID EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY REACH THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. OTHER STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD ACROSS MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB WITH VERY WARM SFC TEMPS AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT AND LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM SUGGEST HIGH-BASED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...NRN MN AND NRN WI WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WRN US WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY ANY SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND NRN CO AND MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. HOWEVER...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS MATURE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SW DESERTS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS STORMS INITIATE IN THE WHITE MTNS AND ON THE MOGOLLON RIM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ELY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CELLS TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY INTO THE DESERTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 05:28:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 00:28:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507300557.j6U5vKTU012514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300553 SWODY2 SPC AC 300552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ MER 40 SE UKI 35 ESE EKA MFR 50 ESE RDM S80 MSO LWT 80 WNW MLS 55 SSW OLF 60 N OLF ...CONT... CLE FDY RFD 35 S RST 40 NW DSM CNK LBL AMA BGS DRT ...CONT... 40 SW PSX VCT 30 SSE CLL 20 SE LFK MLU MEM LOZ 5I3 MGW UCA ALB BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE WESTERLYS AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY LOCATED IN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STREAM NWWD FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SW AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...GREAT LAKES AREA AND MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB... VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AND ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/NRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AROUND 20 KT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT MICROBURSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 05:52:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 00:52:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507300621.j6U6Lk7l018286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300620 SWODY2 SPC AC 300619 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ MER 40 SE UKI 35 ESE EKA MFR 50 ESE RDM S80 MSO LWT 80 WNW MLS 55 SSW OLF 60 N OLF ...CONT... CLE FDY RFD 35 S RST 40 NW DSM CNK LBL AMA BGS DRT ...CONT... 40 SW PSX VCT 30 SSE CLL 20 SE LFK MLU MEM LOZ 5I3 MGW UCA ALB BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO CHANGE MONDAY TO SUNDAY IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE WESTERLYS AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY LOCATED IN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STREAM NWWD FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SW AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...GREAT LAKES AREA AND MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB... VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENCE AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AND ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/NRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK....AROUND 20 KT...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT SUPPORT MICROBURSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 30 16:26:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2005 11:26:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507301655.j6UGtHxc014099@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301652 SWODY2 SPC AC 301652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E APN 10 S PLN 30 S IMT 30 NNW EAU 15 ESE STC 20 WSW BRD 30 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 40 NW VCT 20 W CLL 25 E MEM 30 SE LEX HLG 30 SSW FKL 25 SSW ERI 50 NNE CLE ...CONT... 20 SSE MTC 20 NNE AZO 40 W RFD 20 SSW FNB 40 NE LVS 45 NNW 4CR 40 SSW 4CR 20 NE GDP 30 SW P07 ...CONT... 20 SE SAN 30 ENE BFL 20 N SCK 55 W RBL 35 ENE 4BK 50 ENE EUG 15 SSW GEG 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 55 WNW HVR 55 WNW HVR 55 SE HVR 80 NNE BIL 55 NE DGW 25 NE CDR 50 SSE PHP 15 NW PIR 30 SSE BIS 75 NE ISN ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 E BML 30 ENE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND NRN MI... ...UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...BUILDING SLIGHTLY NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY A SPECIFIC DISTURBANCE...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS MAY FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MN. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WI AND MI. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS STRONG AS FORECAST. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...THE STORMS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...NEW ENGLAND... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S F SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY REMAINS AND THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. IF A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 05:22:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 00:22:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507310551.j6V5pOpt020882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310548 SWODY2 SPC AC 310547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ FAT 35 ESE SAC RBL MFR 40 WSW RDM PDT 30 WSW PUW 30 N 63S ...CONT... 35 NNE MTC MBS GRB 65 ENE STC AXN 20 NW ATY 35 NNW VTN 40 ESE AIA LHX 25 SSE ELP ...CONT... 15 SE CRP 35 NNW NIR 45 SW CLL 45 NE LFK 30 SW GLH 30 SW MEM 20 E MKL 30 E BWG 25 ESE LOZ 20 S BLF 40 WSW RIC 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... ACY 15 WSW ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN WRN AND ERN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY SWD AND MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND. AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WHILE A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD AID IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ...NY AND NEW ENGLAND... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER....MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS MT/ND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM. A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 550 MB DOES RESULT IN SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 25 KT ALONG WITH 40-50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SPARSE...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY IS FORECAST. ..WRN MT/ID AND ERN ORE... SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM EXTREME WRN MT SWWD INTO SRN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS THROUGH VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEEP DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS ALOFT. ..IMY.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 31 16:36:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 11:36:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200507311705.j6VH5DSY002345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311702 SWODY2 SPC AC 311701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 35 W TPL 10 W PBF 50 N JKL 25 E PKB 20 W PIT 40 E TOL 20 SW AZO 40 W MMO 20 N SZL 25 SW EMP 20 NE HUT 20 S CNK 10 W BIE 25 SSE RST 10 WNW EAU 60 S DLH 50 N BRD 45 SSW GFK 45 NE MBG 30 SSE PIR 10 W MCK 55 N CAO 15 NW ONM 20 SW DUG ...CONT... CZZ 30 NNW EDW 45 SSW TVL 35 ENE MHS 30 SSE OLM 20 E CLM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT AND MONDAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NRN ROCKIES AND NEAR A SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN WY AND WRN NEB. COLD AIR ADVECTION AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...NORTHEAST... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NERN US MONDAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.