[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221727
SWODY2
SPC AC 221726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND INTENSE MID-UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
DELMARVA TO SERN NY REGION AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON DAY 2.  ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE
LOW INITIALLY OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE AS IT ALSO TRACKS NEWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.  TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PORTION THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.  

MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 32N 147W/ WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE WRN STATES TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE BAJA REGION TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS
NEWD TOWARD THE SWRN STATES.

...SRN FL...
STRONG NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER THIS
BOUNDARY SWD AND SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONGEST UPPER FORCING REMAINING WELL NNE OF
THIS REGION AND TIME OF DAY...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUTLOOK AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD.

...SRN AZ...
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM DRY ELY FLOW TO SELY AND
SLY ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN.  THIS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-350 MB LAYER EXPECTED TO COOL BY 2-3 DEGREES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OPEN WAVE SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG OR NEAR THE
SONORA BORDER. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THIS THREAT.

..PETERS.. 01/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.