From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 06:25:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 01:25:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501010627.j016Raa4001352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010624 SWODY2 SPC AC 010623 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU SAD ABQ 10 SE TCC 10 SSE AMA P28 OJC IRK 10 SSE JVL 45 ENE MKE AZO ARB 35 NNW MFD LUK OWB GLH 35 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 20 SE CRP SAT JCT 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH ACV 35 NNW SFO SMX LGB 10 SSE SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WITHIN BROADER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC/ WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD BASE OF TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...THE OTHER ACROSS BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR BOTH FEATURES TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. CIRCULATION AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. DESPITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WEAK LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ON WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TEND TO LIMIT CAPE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS ALREADY EMANATED FROM WESTERN TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTRIBUTES TO EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NEAR WAVE AND AHEAD OF TRAILING SURFACE FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATES INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ...WRN GULF COAST INTO SRN PLAINS/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR THERMAL GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE ABOVE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST SOUTH OF THIS ZONE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS PROGRESSION OF FEATURES WITHIN UPPER PATTERN CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. ..KERR.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 17:11:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 12:11:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501011713.j01HDHB0029170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011710 SWODY2 SPC AC 011708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU SAD ABQ 10 SE TCC 10 SSE AMA P28 OJC IRK 10 SSE JVL 45 ENE MKE 30 SW MBS 10 NE ARB 35 NNW MFD LUK OWB GLH 30 ESE BPT ...CONT... 20 SE CRP SAT JCT 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH ACV 35 NNW SFO SMX LGB 10 SSE SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD TOWARD COASTAL CA ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE LOW. ONE SUCH JETLET WILL REACH THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER LOW VCNTY CA COAST WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE THREATS AS THE NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND COMES TO A CLOSE. ...SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VLY... BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MOIST ALONG/S OF THE POLAR FRONT THAT SHOULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NWRN OK-SERN KS-OH VLY LINE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTENANCE OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPLY A WARM MID-TROPOSPHERE...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SURFACE BASED PARCELS MOST OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NEWD INTO THE REGION INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES FROM NCNTRL TX NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN OK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF HEATING IS SUFFICIENT... STORMS MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. BUT...THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND THE FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE/UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH. ...UPPER MIDWEST... TSTMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE CORN BELT/MID-MO VLY TODAY MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY SUNDAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS BOTH HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LLJ BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EWD BY MID-DAY. ...COASTAL CA... MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...WILL MOVE ONSHORE CA...WITH THE HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW CORE. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SPREAD SWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS/ SANTA BARBARA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..RACY.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 06:55:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 01:55:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501020657.j026vcCX000396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020653 SWODY2 SPC AC 020653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 INK 20 ENE ROW 35 NW TCC 50 S LAA 40 NW GCK 30 WSW STJ 45 NE UIN 15 NE DNV 25 NE DAY 15 N PKB 15 SSW CRW 35 E BNA 40 NE ELD TYR 25 ENE SAT 40 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UKI 10 ENE SJC 25 SW FAT 20 NNE EDW 35 N EED 35 NNW PRC 25 SSE FLG 65 ENE PHX 15 WNW TUS 65 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE OREGON COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN CA MONDAY EVENING...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. 50-60 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY/NERN STATES WILL BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW AND A FLAT RIDGE FROM SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE ERN AND SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ...WRN TX NEWD ACROSS OK... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF NRN BAJA AT 30N 125W PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NM AT THE START OF DAY 2 BEFORE SHEARING NEWD ACROSS KS TO LOWER MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST W OF CENTRAL BAJA IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE ETA/GFS DIFFERING IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONT. GFS INDICATED THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2... BEFORE RETREATING NWD MONDAY NIGHT. THE ETA SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FROM SRN MO INTO CENTRAL/NRN OK. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK BY MONDAY EVENING. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES THROUGH 04/00Z...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/ MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF NRN TX INTO OK. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS NRN TX INTO WRN OK DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A GREATER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING OVER WRN TX AND CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT INTO OK AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR AN ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SURFACE FEATURES CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED. ...SRN CA EWD TO AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND OFFSHORE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN CA. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN 40 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THIS AREA AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER AZ BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER SRN CA AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-28 TO -30C AT 500 MB/ MOVES INLAND LATER IN THE DAY. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 17:35:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 12:35:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501021737.j02HbCEP024357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021735 SWODY2 SPC AC 021733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DRT INK 20 ENE ROW 35 NW TCC 50 S LAA 40 NW GCK 30 WSW STJ 45 NE UIN 15 NE DNV 25 NE DAY 15 N PKB 15 SSW CRW 35 E BNA 15 SE LIT 25 ENE GGG 15 NE TPL 30 NNW HDO 35 NNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UKI 10 ENE SJC 25 SW FAT 20 NNE EDW 35 N EED 35 NNW PRC 25 SSE FLG 65 ENE PHX 15 WNW TUS 65 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OFF ORE COAST WILL DROP SWD OFF THE CA WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE LOW AND THEN EJECT EWD INTO THE DESERTS. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH SRN CA AND NRN BAJA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL JETLETS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE QUASI- STATIONARY FROM THE TX PNHDL EWD TO THE OH VLY. ...SRN CA... MID-TROPOSPHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BANDS OF STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM THE LA BASIN SWD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL BAJA AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH OFFSHORE WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR. ...SRN PLAINS... DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH SHORT TERM MODEL SPREADS RATHER LARGE WITH RESPECT TO QPF. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE E-W FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING TSTMS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NEWD AND WEAKEN AS LLJ VEERS/ WEAKENS. DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIED WITH POTENTIAL AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. GIVEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND PRESENCE OF WARM MID-TROPOSPHERE...RISKS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SEEM RATHER LOW. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT PIN-POINTING AN EXACT AREA IS CHALLENGING GIVEN SPREAD IN MODELS. ATTM...BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE FROM NRN OK NEWD TOWARD THE OH VLY. GIVEN MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW THREATS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD NOT SPREAD EWD FROM THE CA SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY. ..RACY.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 07:02:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 02:02:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501030704.j03743Iv017879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030658 SWODY2 SPC AC 030657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MRY 30 SSE PRB 35 SSE BFL 25 NNW DAG 40 SE LAS 35 SE SGU 25 NNE U17 15 N TAD 50 SSW HLC 30 SE CNK 50 S P35 30 S SPI BMG 20 SSE SDF 40 NW CSV 25 SSW PBF 40 NNE GGG 20 N HDO DRT ...CONT... 35 S P07 25 NE MRF 70 WNW MRF 15 WNW ELP 15 ESE DMN 55 NNE DUG 30 SW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF CA...AS IT WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON TUESDAY AND MOVES ENEWD FROM SRN CA TO CO/NRN NM BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE OPEN WAVE WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FAR SRN MO SWWD TO SWRN OK...AND THEN WNWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TO SERN CO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND N-S ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER... WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING EWD TUESDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPS-BGS-MRF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...FAR ERN NM/WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE/WRN OK... SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SSELY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF TX. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PER BROAD LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN TX. MODELS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FOR WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS TX INTO SRN KS WITH MID-LEVEL SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 60 KT OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN AS A STRONG 90-100 KT JET NOSES INTO WRN TX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE N-S SURFACE TROUGH...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS OK INTO FAR SRN MO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS. ..PETERS.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 17:01:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 12:01:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501031703.j03H31FH002097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031700 SWODY2 SPC AC 031659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA DAG 45 NNW EED BCE PUC EGE COS GCK EMP STL BMG DAY PKB CRW BNA PBF TYR SJT 65 WNW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OK/TX... ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES ON TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN OK. AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT AND IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...OVER WESTERN OK AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX...WILL SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER WEST TX AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES REGION. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK DURING THE EVENING. KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR AGAINST ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME IS LIMITED INSTABILITY. ..HART.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 05:57:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 00:57:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501040559.j045xmtF025862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040557 SWODY2 SPC AC 040556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 25 ENE ABI 40 SSW LTS 25 WNW CSM 25 NNW END 45 NE SZL 20 SE LAF 35 SE MIE 40 ENE SDF 55 NE MKL 50 S GLH 30 NNW ESF 40 WSW LFK 30 WNW TPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AREA AT THE START OF DAY 2 AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT 100 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM SRN NM TO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE OZARKS WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A FRONT... WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER TN/MS VALLEYS AND MUCH OF TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX TO SERN KS/SRN MO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN MINIMAL INHIBITION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN TX TO SRN IL THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...PRECLUDING INCLUSION INTO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 17:18:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 12:18:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501041720.j04HKWmu026347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041718 SWODY2 SPC AC 041717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW TPL 15 SW ABI 55 SSE CDS 10 ESE CSM 40 NNE PNC 40 SSW IRK 10 WSW BMI 30 S FDY 25 S ZZV 15 WNW 5I3 15 WNW CHA 55 W JAN 25 NNW LFK 40 NW TPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH VALLEY... CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING WEAK SFC WAVE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO EXTREME SRN IND. IT APPEARS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME AS LLJ FOCUSES FROM NRN TN INTO SRN OH. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SWD INTO TX SUGGEST CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER REGION...NEWD. NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE MAINTAINING ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 05:48:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 00:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501050550.j055oGqg024307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050548 SWODY2 SPC AC 050547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SERN STATES AND MEAN TROUGH POSITION REMAINS OVER THE WRN STATES. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TO WRN GULF COAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DEVELOPS EWD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF WA/ORE AND CENTRAL/SRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ONE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES SRN CA...AND A SECOND VERY COLD TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES AT -30 TO -36C/ DIGS SSEWD OFF THE BC/PAC NW COAST. ..PETERS.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 17:14:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 12:14:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501051716.j05HGdWJ027209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051712 SWODY2 SPC AC 051711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW AUS 20 E ACT 15 NW GGG 30 E SHV 30 W ESF 10 WSW LCH 40 SSW PSX 25 N ALI 15 S HDO 55 WNW AUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX COASTAL PLAINS... POLAR HIGH WILL FORCE COLD FRONT INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY1 PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A NWD EVOLVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP JUST OFF THE TX COAST AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUOYANT PARCELS IF LIFTED FROM NEAR 850MB...MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 07:14:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 02:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501060715.j067Fs8D009659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060712 SWODY2 SPC AC 060711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HQM 25 E AST 30 ENE OTH 35 NNE 4BK 35 SE CEC 45 SSE EKA 10 WSW UKI 30 NNE SFO 15 SE SJC 40 NW PRB 20 ESE SMX 10 S OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 40 SW CLL 65 SSW TYR 10 N PBF 35 SSW DYR 25 SSW CKV 30 NNW CSV TYS 20 NNE ATL 25 S AUO 25 S CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 34N 133W...WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z FRIDAY AS IT PHASES WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF DAY 1. ON DAY 2 THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...WITH HEIGHT RISES LIKELY FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE TX/LA COAST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTAL AREAS AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN TX/NRN LA FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO WV BY 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS. IN THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AND HEIGHTS FALL WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SWD OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW AND NRN CA. ...ERN TX/LOWER MS TO TN VALLEYS... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO SRN AR DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL ZONE PER 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD...SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG/N OF SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LA NEWD ACROSS MS TO ERN TN BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE WARM SECTOR MAY MOVE INLAND TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. THUS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT. ..PETERS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 17:20:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 12:20:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501061721.j06HLx07015775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061718 SWODY2 SPC AC 061717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HQM 25 E AST 30 ENE OTH 35 NNE 4BK 35 SE CEC 45 SSE EKA 10 WSW UKI 30 NNE SFO 15 SE SJC 40 NW PRB 20 ESE SMX 10 S OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 40 SW CLL 55 E ACT 35 N TXK 25 WNW LIT 25 WNW MEM 15 N MSL 10 NNW BHM 40 W SEM 35 SSE MCB 40 WSW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING FOR POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTENING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS RECOVERING AIRMASS BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG WEAKLY FOCUSED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN TX INTO NRN MS. ...WEST COAST... THERMAL PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE WRN U.S. SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED AT TIMES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SHOULD ALLOW LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO SPREAD INLAND FROM SWRN WA TO CNTRL CA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ORE COAST INTO NWRN CA. ..DARROW.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 06:56:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 01:56:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501070658.j076wc3b005904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070654 SWODY2 SPC AC 070653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N AST 20 SSE AST 25 NE ONP 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE EKA 30 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 40 N MCB 35 ENE CBM 40 WNW CHA 10 NW TYS 15 S HSS SPA 25 N AGS 60 E MCN 15 NW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN US... WSWLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2. A SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SWWD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MS AND AL. A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD ALLOWING MID-LEVEL WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS MS AND AL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS AL INTO GA AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BECOMING ISOLATED DURING THE DAY. ...WEST COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY NEAR THE COASTS OF NRN CA...ORE AND WA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 17:24:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 12:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501071725.j07HPogL029208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071722 SWODY2 SPC AC 071721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N AST 40 W PDX EUG 35 NW MFR 45 E ACV 25 E UKI 25 ENE SJC 35 WNW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IT APPEARS STEEPEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST FROM NEAR THE MIDDLE CALIFORNIA COAST...NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FOCUSED ZONES OF CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE DIFFICULT...BUT INSTRUMENTAL IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVERGENCE. ..DARROW.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 06:40:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 01:40:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501080641.j086fpki012441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080639 SWODY2 SPC AC 080638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WSWLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2 WITH AN UPPER-LOW SITTING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSE TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA...ORE AND CA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL PRECIPITATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT NEAR THE COAST AS THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND. ELSEWHERE..SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CNTRL AND ERN US WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 17:18:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 12:18:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501081720.j08HKQat031850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081718 SWODY2 SPC AC 081717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OFF THE WA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36HR. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP MARITIME AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND WITH WLY FLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE WA/ORE COAST...OR PERHAPS MOVE INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING. ..DARROW.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 06:35:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 01:35:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501090637.j096b7X6010758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090635 SWODY2 SPC AC 090634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 35 E PRX 40 NNE PRX 30 NW PGO 20 N FYV 35 NNE VIH 30 SSE SPI 25 NW HUF 15 SE IND 35 W LUK 15 NNW LEX 55 WNW LOZ 15 S BNA 10 NNE UOX 40 NE ELD TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S EKA 55 NNW SAC 45 NE SCK 30 ENE MER 30 SW FAT 30 NW SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DROP SEWD DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD TAKE IT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SRN US ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ..BROYLES.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 05:31:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 00:31:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501140534.j0E5YbFe031640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140532 SWODY2 SPC AC 140531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE CENTRAL/ERN NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE TROUGH -- ANCHORED BY LARGE/COMPLEX LOW COVERING MOST OF NERN CANADA. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL MINOR/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES EWD AND SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ATLANTIC COAST. SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY AS A DOUBLE-STRUCTURED BAROCLINIC ZONE STRADDLING CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WILL COMBINE DURING UPCOMING DAY-1 AND SWEEP OFFSHORE ALL BUT PERHAPS SERN-MOST FL BY 15/12Z. PRIND FRONT MAY BE TOTALLY CLEAR OF FL THEN AS WELL. SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW QUITE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN GULF -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FL LATE DAY-1 AND OFFSHORE CAROLINAS EARLY DAY-2. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST WELL OFFSHORE SRN ATLANTIC COAST ALONG SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE COLD FRONT OUT OF PENINSULA AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE BEGINNING OF PERIOD. EXPECT TSTM POTENTIAL TO BE MINIMAL...BOTH OVER SRN FL AND REMAINDER CONUS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 17:17:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 12:17:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501141720.j0EHKGec004830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141718 SWODY2 SPC AC 141717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S FMY 55 E FMY 25 W VRB 40 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... BROAD...CYCLONIC LONG WAVE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC/ WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THIS MEAN PATTERN...ONE OF WHICH BEING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE /PER CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ OVER NRN BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MEXICO/SRN TX TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NRN GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A SWWD EXTENSION TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ERN FL PENINSULA AND THEN ACROSS SRN FL. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME...ALLOWING TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY TO TEMPORARILY SAG SEWD OFF THE FL COAST. HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GULF...BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT NWD TO VICINITY OF S FL COAST OR POSSIBLY ONSHORE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST OVER S FL THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 05:00:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 00:00:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501150503.j0F53G9N006312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150501 SWODY2 SPC AC 150500 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CONUS. WITH FRONTAL BAND WELL OFFSHORE OVER ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL/POLAR ANTICYCLONE AT SFC WILL KEEP AIR MASS TOO DRY/COLD/STABLE FOR TSTMS E OF ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER NERN PACIFIC IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS MUCH OF CA/NV BY END OF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TO ITS E...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO SCANT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 16:47:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 11:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501151650.j0FGoVKX021101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151648 SWODY2 SPC AC 151647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. FARTHER W...SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT AIR MASS OVER THE NATION WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH NO TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 04:41:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 23:41:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501160444.j0G4iFXG020657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160442 SWODY2 SPC AC 160441 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH DAY-2 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN TROUGH...AND SOMEWHAT FLATTER RIDGE ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA THAT WILL BE PENETRATED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. MOST PROMINENT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL PACIFIC NW -- WILL AMPLIFY DURING DAY-2 OVER 4-CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGIONS...AFTER IT LEAVES LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION. ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW AND VERY HIGH BASED CONVECTION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM RISK. FARTHER W...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME EXPECTED OVER COASTAL PACIFIC NW...AHEAD OF OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH. PRIND BUOYANCY SHOULD BE TOO WEAK OVER LAND FOR GEN THUNDER RISK...THOUGH THUNDER MAY BE MORE COMMON OFFSHORE. STABILIZING EFFECTS OF STRONG CONTINENTAL/POLAR ANTICYCLONE IN LOW LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES. ..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 16:48:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 11:48:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501161650.j0GGoctR006958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161648 SWODY2 SPC AC 161647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE E AND RIDGING OFF THE CA COAST. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THIS MEAN PATTERN...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH CHINOOK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ..MEAD.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 05:57:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:57:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501170559.j0H5xxNG023150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170558 SWODY2 SPC AC 170557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EXPECTED AMIDST PREVAILING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REGIME. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV. ONE SEGMENT OF VORTICITY FIELD WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN MEX AND DECELERATE AS A WEAK UPPER LOW...WHILE PROGRESSIVE SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS WRN GULF COAST/MS DELTA REGIONS AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. DESTABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MEX PORTION OF TROUGH MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD...IN NRN MEX. SREF GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL SHORT-RANGE MODELS REASONABLY INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REMAIN LARGELY OR ENTIRELY S OF MEX BORDER ON HIGHER TERRAIN...GIVEN LACK OF SFC MOISTURE N OF BORDER. ALTHOUGH A FEW CB MAY MOVE CLOSE TO U.S. TERRITORY BETWEEN SERN AZ AND TX BIG BEND REGION...PROBABILITY OF TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR GEN THUNDER AREA ATTM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALONG PACIFIC NW COAST AMIDST PERSISTENT WAA REGIME. PRIND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE. THOUGH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY HAPPEN NEAR COAST...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER FCST ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 17:26:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 12:26:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501171729.j0HHTL3M003040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171726 SWODY2 SPC AC 171725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... A LONG FETCH OF DEEP...MOIST WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PACIFIC AND INTO THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE NWRN STATES. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THESE IMPULSES AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF THE CASCADES. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 05:17:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 00:17:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501180519.j0I5JqPH004098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180518 SWODY2 SPC AC 180517 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MAJORITY OF CONUS...BECAUSE OF MEAN RIDGE JUST INLAND W COAST AND MEAN TROUGH INVOF ATLANTIC COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DAY-2. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SOME PRECIP...EFFECTS OF LOW-THETAE TRAJECTORIES FROM CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE NOW OVER SERN CONUS WILL PREVENT ENOUGH MOISTENING/WARMING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER SW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ATTM IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE RAOB ANALYSES FROM 4 CORNERS AREA TO NWRN MEX. MAIN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING/RETROGRADING ACROSS NWRN MEX/BAJA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WAA AND MOISTENING ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF NWRN MEX...WHERE DIABATIC HEATING CAN FURTHER AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AIR MASS N OF MEX BORDER SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 17:24:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 12:24:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501181726.j0IHQb0W027921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181725 SWODY2 SPC AC 181724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WRN STATES AND MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST. INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE SRN TX COAST. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL INVERSION SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 05:40:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 00:40:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501190543.j0J5hPQG025875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190542 SWODY2 SPC AC 190541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 15 E AST ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS. EXPECT CUT-OFF LOW TO MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS NEAR WRN BAJA...ASSOCIATED ASCENT/MOISTURE BEING TOO FAR S INTO MEX TO YIELD TSTM THREAT FOR BORDERLANDS. UNFAVORABLY LOW THETAE IN CONTINENTAL-POLAR TRAJECTORIES IN LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT TSTM POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN PACIFIC INVOF 150W-155W...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE WA/NRN ORE COASTS BETWEEN 20/18Z AND 21/00Z BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z SHORT-RANGE/DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE INLAND WA/ORE/ID AS IT PENETRATES POSITION OF LARGER SCALE RIDGE. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB ARE LIKELY OVER PACIFIC WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. AS RELATED ZONE OF DPVA MOVES ASHORE...SO MAY SOME OF THE CB WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO 200 J/KG INDICATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ABOVE NEARLY SATURATED PARCELS IN LOW LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 17:16:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 12:16:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501191718.j0JHIvQK010755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191716 SWODY2 SPC AC 191715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S./WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO SUGGEST EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME...AND CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WHICH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NATION. THUS...RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 06:05:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 01:05:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501200607.j0K67fmQ023498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200604 SWODY2 SPC AC 200603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MVN BMG LUK JKL LOZ TUP GWO GLH PBF LIT UNO MVN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN SAD ALM GDP MRF 55 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SRN STREAM AND OVER ERN STATES. NERN PACIFIC TROUGH -- NOW APCHG WA/ORE COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION LATTER HALF DAY-1...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND AMPLIFY DAY-2. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PHASE/MERGE WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW BREACHING NRN EXTENT OF MEAN RIDGE OVER WRN NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA. COMBINED TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD...FOLLOWING ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHILE SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIFTS NWD. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF LOW NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC...CENTERED W OF BAJA SPUR. AS IS TYPICAL WITH CUT-OFF/SLOW-MOVING SRN STREAM SYSTEMS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS PERTURBATION BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SREF GUIDANCE. LATEST MODELS INDICATE ONLY SMALL SEGMENT OF ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FIELD WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO PREVAILING NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...WHILE MOST OF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MEX BORDERLANDS AND EJECTS A FEW DAYS LATER. THEREFORE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE OVER MID/UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW TROUGH. ...AR TO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP FROM MS DELTA REGION NEWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM PERTURBATION. IN LOW LEVELS...UPSTREAM GULF AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THROUGH PERIOD WITH MARGINAL BUT INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. BY LAST 6-9 HOURS OF PERIOD...EXPECT SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA -- PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 500 J/KG IN SWRN PORTIONS AND DECREASING NEWD. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT - AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC WARM FROM -- AS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED PARCELS REACH LFC AMIDST WEAKENING CINH ALOFT. PRIND BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 22/12Z. ...MEX BORDERLANDS -- BIG BEND TO AZ... WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING -- VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE -- SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CB DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER MEX...A FEW BRIEF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BIG BEND MOUNTAINS WNWWD TOWARD SERN AZ. ..EDWARDS.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 17:07:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 12:07:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501201709.j0KH9qXD019588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201706 SWODY2 SPC AC 201705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 40 SSE PHX 50 N SAD 15 WNW TCS 40 NE ELP 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ THROUGH SRN NM INTO FAR W TX... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH FRIDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL CAPE...MAINLY FROM SRN AZ INTO SWRN NM. A FEW SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SOME HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR. ...WRN TN THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY... WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH AIR OVER THE GULF STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION AND EXPECTED WSWLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...ONLY MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FROM KY NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN/KY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY IN RESPONSE TO SEWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND EXPECTED STRONGER LIFT TO REMAIN NE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 05:37:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501210540.j0L5e3M1013131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210538 SWODY2 SPC AC 210536 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 65 WSW MIA ...CONT... 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE MLU 35 WSW UOX 35 WNW MSL 55 NNE HSV 25 ENE CHA 45 SW AVL 15 ENE SPA 30 SW SOP 15 ENE GSB 25 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMPOSITE OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...CURRENTLY IN FORMATIVE STAGES OF INTENSIFICATION/PHASING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA...WILL EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...BAJA CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...AND RETURNS NWD OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS FROM OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEEDING THE FRONT...FROM LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST AREA... WHILE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FCST TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION...MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 200-600 J/KG BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF ETA/ETAKF FCST SOUNDINGS. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 50KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING COINCIDENT WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY AS DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 17:34:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 12:34:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501211736.j0LHaZ1M009017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211734 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE MLU 20 N UOX 50 E MKL 45 ESE BWG 35 ESE LEX 30 NE JKL 20 S 5I3 25 WSW TRI 10 SE AVL 25 WSW CLT SOP 10 SSE RWI 25 NNE ECG ...CONT... 20 N VRB 65 WSW MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON SATURDAY AS IT TRACKS ESEWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD TOWARD SRN PA/WV WITH A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL BAJA CA. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TX/LA COAST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AIDING IN FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST STATES... LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER ACROSS THIS AREA ADVECTING A NARROW MOIST AXIS EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MOIST AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AVAILABILITY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 200-600 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN WAA REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED STORMS BEGINNING AT OR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN GULF COAST STATES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS...WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS WITH 40-50 KT POSSIBLE AT 850 MB SHOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 05:41:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501220544.j0M5iBef000635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220543 SWODY2 SPC AC 220542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S FMY 20 N PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC AIR MOVES SEWD INTO THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY STILL OVER S FL. FARTHER W...CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE NRN BAJA/NRN MEXICO AREA. ...S FL... TRAILING PORTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER S FL BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES...TIME OF DAY AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THIS AREA. ..DIAL.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 17:27:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 12:27:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501221729.j0MHTfYB001775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221727 SWODY2 SPC AC 221726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND INTENSE MID-UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DELMARVA TO SERN NY REGION AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON DAY 2. ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT ALSO TRACKS NEWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PORTION THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 32N 147W/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE SWRN STATES. ...SRN FL... STRONG NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER THIS BOUNDARY SWD AND SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONGEST UPPER FORCING REMAINING WELL NNE OF THIS REGION AND TIME OF DAY...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUTLOOK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD. ...SRN AZ... LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM DRY ELY FLOW TO SELY AND SLY ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-350 MB LAYER EXPECTED TO COOL BY 2-3 DEGREES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OPEN WAVE SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG OR NEAR THE SONORA BORDER. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS THREAT. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 05:44:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 00:44:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501230547.j0N5l06c018183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230544 SWODY2 SPC AC 230543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST AND GULF COASTS WITH DRY AND COOL/COLD SURFACE AIR MASS LEADING TO MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY SPINNING WWD OVER THE BAJA REGION...IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND TRANSLATE EAST FROM AZ/NM TO OK/TX FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL BE KICKED EAST BY PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE FCST TO APPROACH THE CA COAST DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. LIFT AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND DURATION OF CG LTG ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 17:20:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 12:20:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501231722.j0NHMfLK004761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231720 SWODY2 SPC AC 231719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGHS...ONE APPROACHING THE CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THE SECOND MOVING ACROSS WRN CANADA ON MONDAY...WILL CONCURRENTLY AID IN BREAKING DOWN THE WRN RIDGE. THE APPROACH OF THE SRN TROUGH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT AN ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE BAJA CLOSED LOW ACROSS AZ/NM TO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. WEAK ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER... ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND DURATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 05:39:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 00:39:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501240541.j0O5fN4o003790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240539 SWODY2 SPC AC 240538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WITHIN PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL FALL THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS MOVE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS CA. CUTOFF LOW AHEAD OF THESE PACIFIC DISTURBANCES... CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE DOWNSTREAM TO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THIS SAME IMPULSE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING TUESDAY. WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ONTARIO TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON DAY TWO...AND ACT TO REINFORCE THE COLD/STABLE AIR MASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH... MIDWEST...AND EAST. WHILE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CA. ...CA... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/SHOWERS AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NRN CA COAST ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL VALLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM...COUPLED WITH MODEST 2M DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F...MAY SUPPORT MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 250 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...COULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD LAYER RESULTS IN MARGINAL EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF -12C TO -18C. WITH CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING GENERATION DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN THIS FCST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A TSTM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 17:09:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 12:09:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501241711.j0OHBVCW015617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241709 SWODY2 SPC AC 241708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LAX 30 W BFL SJC 35 ESE UKI RBL 30 E RBL 45 W TVL 30 WSW BIH NID DAG RAL 35 SSE LGB 15 WSW LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGE OVER W...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF WRN RIDGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. LONG-LIVED UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD THEN EWD THROUGH SRN ROCKIES DAY-1...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND AL/GA DAY-2 AS OPEN WAVE TROUGH. HIGHEST AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL DAY-3 PERIOD...BUT SEVERAL MINOR PERTURBATIONS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CA COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW. ...CA CENTRAL VALLEY TO L.A. BASIN... TSTM POTENTIAL MARGINAL FOR GEN THUNDER FCST...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITIES BEING 25/18-26/00Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- BENEATH SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW -- WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS REGION. MEAN LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC WITH MUCAPES REMAINING BELOW 100 J/KG...EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON. DIABATIC SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD WARM LOWER LEVELS OF SOUNDINGS ENOUGH TO YIELD 150-300 J/KG MUCAPE...AMIDST LITTLE CINH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE WEAK OUTSIDE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AREAS...ISOLATED/EPISODIC TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. ...SERN CONUS... SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA IN ITS PATH...FROM CENTRAL OK EARLY IN PERIOD ESEWD ACROSS TN AND CENTRAL/NRN GA BY 26/12Z. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER S AND SE...OVER GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF LA/MS/AL. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS IN BOTH CORRIDORS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL. ATTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO SMALL/CONDITIONAL FOR GEN THUNDER AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 06:15:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 01:15:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501250617.j0P6HrNP022830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250615 SWODY2 SPC AC 250614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW OTH 40 E ACV 40 SE RBL 45 ENE MER 55 S BIH 40 S DRA 40 SSE IGM 35 S PRC 65 ENE PHX 25 NNW SAD 35 WNW SVC 25 ENE SVC 45 NNW ELP 20 NNE ELP 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG ZONAL JET OVER THE NERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING SLOWLY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET CORE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA AND THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN GRADUAL AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE AREAS. BY EARLY THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RESEMBLE A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE PERSISTS BETWEEN CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. ...CA... IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF SFO WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE ORE/WA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE CA COAST. STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM AROUND 140W WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AIDED BY DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGES AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN CA ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADS ATOP HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS...RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX...INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 17:31:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 12:31:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501251733.j0PHXYWR008972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 10 NW EUG LMT 35 NNE SAC 55 S BIH LAS INW 85 ESE SOW 45 WSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2 PERIOD...AMIDST SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE WAVE TRAIN THAT HAS FEATURED ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK -- WILL ACCELERATE ESEWD OFF GA/SC COAST DURING PERIOD AMIDST CONFLUENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ALOFT. SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS -- WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MS VALLEY...APPALACHIANS AND SRN PLAINS. FRONT SHOULD REACH NRN FL AND NRN GULF BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AROUND 27/00Z. ...W COAST AND SW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NRN STREAM SEGMENT OF LANDFALLING UPPER TROUGH WILL FEATURE TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER MIDLEVEL DPVA/LIFT...BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE SRN STREAM PORTION CONTRIBUTES TO INLAND DESTABILIZATION AS FAR E AS SRN BASIN-AND-RANGE REGION. EXPECT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THROUGHOUT FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM LOWER CO VALLEY EWD BECAUSE OF SFC HEATING. HEATING WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF CA...BUT WITH STRONGER FORCING ALOFT. NET RESULT SHOULD BE 50-300 J/KG MLCAPE IN POCKETS ACROSS MUCH OF GEN THUNDER AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 06:07:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 01:07:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501290610.j0T6AbwY022724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290608 SWODY2 SPC AC 290606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 30 SSW HOB 20 W ROW 20 ENE TCS 45 SSW SAD 55 SSE GBN YUM 25 NE TRM 45 W DRA 65 ENE TPH 45 SSW ENV SLC 35 N VEL 50 ENE CAG 25 N COS 25 S LHX 15 E DHT 35 NNE PVW 50 NNW ABI 20 N ACT 55 ENE CLL 30 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GPT 55 NNE MOB 45 SSW CBM TUP 50 NNW MSL 40 S BNA 10 NW AND 35 SSW CLT 25 NE SOP 25 SE RWI 40 ENE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO AZ WILL EJECT EWD AT A SLOWER PACE. RESULTANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER TX WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD SWD WITH OVERALL HIGHER PRESSURES THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. AS A RESULT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TX...AND THAT MAY PROVE TO BE ISOLATED ...FOCUSED EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPSTREAM...CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALLOW SHALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH CRITICAL CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING GENERATION. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES. ...SERN U.S... MOISTENING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN INCREASINGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN ELEVATED FASHION AS POLAR AIRMASS WEDGED EAST/SOUTH OF MOUNTAINS BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN GA LATE. EVEN SO IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL PROVE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. ..DARROW.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 17:06:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 12:06:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501291709.j0TH90NE027234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291707 SWODY2 SPC AC 291705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ORL 15 NW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 15 WNW VLD 40 NNE SAV 15 NE FLO 40 N RWI 25 SSE RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 30 SSW HOB 25 SW ROW 35 NNW TCS 55 W SOW 20 N PRC 25 WSW GCN 30 W PGA 20 SE 4HV 15 ESE GJT 15 SW COS 15 WNW LTS 45 SW PRX 45 ESE SHV 15 E ESF 45 N LFT LFT 15 SSW 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE SWWD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN STATES. AT LOW-LEVELS...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F LIKELY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NERN MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TX...CREATING STRONG VEERING WINDS BELOW 700 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AS SHOWN ON THE DAY 2 KCRP 22Z FORECAST SOUNDING...SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FORECAST BY THE MODELS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. IF CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONT...AND STORMS DO INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN UPPER-LOW WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WEST TX AND THE SRN ROCKIES ON DAY 2. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 05:45:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 00:45:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501300548.j0U5mpSa028565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300547 SWODY2 SPC AC 300546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 30 SSE JCT 35 NNW AUS 35 NNW CLL 20 S LFK 20 SW POE 15 ENE LFT 35 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX... IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT CHANGES...IT APPEARS WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. AS SFC PRESSURES RISE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX...LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY AND A REFOCUS OF SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRAILING THE WIND SHIFT UP TO 100MI...THEN DEVELOPING SEWD WITH TIME AS NLY FLOW DEEPENS. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND POOR INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 17:20:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 12:20:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501301723.j0UHN0jk009433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301719 SWODY2 SPC AC 301718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 WNW AUS 40 NNE CLL 20 WSW POE 10 ENE LFT 35 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SWD ACROSS SOUTH AND SE TX SUNDAY. OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COOL DOME...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF NRN NM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS EAST TX MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 06:25:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 01:25:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501010627.j016Raa4001352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010624 SWODY2 SPC AC 010623 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU SAD ABQ 10 SE TCC 10 SSE AMA P28 OJC IRK 10 SSE JVL 45 ENE MKE AZO ARB 35 NNW MFD LUK OWB GLH 35 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 20 SE CRP SAT JCT 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH ACV 35 NNW SFO SMX LGB 10 SSE SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WITHIN BROADER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC/ WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD BASE OF TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...THE OTHER ACROSS BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR BOTH FEATURES TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. CIRCULATION AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. DESPITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WEAK LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ON WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TEND TO LIMIT CAPE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS ALREADY EMANATED FROM WESTERN TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTRIBUTES TO EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NEAR WAVE AND AHEAD OF TRAILING SURFACE FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATES INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ...WRN GULF COAST INTO SRN PLAINS/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH SURFACE FRONT WILL ADVANCE...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR THERMAL GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE ABOVE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST SOUTH OF THIS ZONE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION. THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS PROGRESSION OF FEATURES WITHIN UPPER PATTERN CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. ..KERR.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 17:11:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 12:11:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501011713.j01HDHB0029170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011710 SWODY2 SPC AC 011708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU SAD ABQ 10 SE TCC 10 SSE AMA P28 OJC IRK 10 SSE JVL 45 ENE MKE 30 SW MBS 10 NE ARB 35 NNW MFD LUK OWB GLH 30 ESE BPT ...CONT... 20 SE CRP SAT JCT 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH ACV 35 NNW SFO SMX LGB 10 SSE SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD TOWARD COASTAL CA ON SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE LOW. ONE SUCH JETLET WILL REACH THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER LOW VCNTY CA COAST WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE THREATS AS THE NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND COMES TO A CLOSE. ...SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VLY... BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MOIST ALONG/S OF THE POLAR FRONT THAT SHOULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NWRN OK-SERN KS-OH VLY LINE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTENANCE OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPLY A WARM MID-TROPOSPHERE...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SURFACE BASED PARCELS MOST OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NEWD INTO THE REGION INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES FROM NCNTRL TX NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN OK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF HEATING IS SUFFICIENT... STORMS MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. BUT...THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND THE FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE/UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH. ...UPPER MIDWEST... TSTMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE CORN BELT/MID-MO VLY TODAY MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY SUNDAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS BOTH HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LLJ BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EWD BY MID-DAY. ...COASTAL CA... MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...WILL MOVE ONSHORE CA...WITH THE HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW CORE. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SPREAD SWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS/ SANTA BARBARA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..RACY.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 06:55:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 01:55:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501020657.j026vcCX000396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020653 SWODY2 SPC AC 020653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 INK 20 ENE ROW 35 NW TCC 50 S LAA 40 NW GCK 30 WSW STJ 45 NE UIN 15 NE DNV 25 NE DAY 15 N PKB 15 SSW CRW 35 E BNA 40 NE ELD TYR 25 ENE SAT 40 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UKI 10 ENE SJC 25 SW FAT 20 NNE EDW 35 N EED 35 NNW PRC 25 SSE FLG 65 ENE PHX 15 WNW TUS 65 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE OREGON COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN CA MONDAY EVENING...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. 50-60 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY/NERN STATES WILL BE MAINTAINED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW AND A FLAT RIDGE FROM SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE ERN AND SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ...WRN TX NEWD ACROSS OK... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF NRN BAJA AT 30N 125W PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NM AT THE START OF DAY 2 BEFORE SHEARING NEWD ACROSS KS TO LOWER MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST W OF CENTRAL BAJA IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE ETA/GFS DIFFERING IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONT. GFS INDICATED THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2... BEFORE RETREATING NWD MONDAY NIGHT. THE ETA SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FROM SRN MO INTO CENTRAL/NRN OK. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK BY MONDAY EVENING. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES THROUGH 04/00Z...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/ MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF NRN TX INTO OK. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS NRN TX INTO WRN OK DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A GREATER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING OVER WRN TX AND CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT INTO OK AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR AN ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SURFACE FEATURES CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED. ...SRN CA EWD TO AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND OFFSHORE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN CA. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN 40 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THIS AREA AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER AZ BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER SRN CA AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-28 TO -30C AT 500 MB/ MOVES INLAND LATER IN THE DAY. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 17:35:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 12:35:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501021737.j02HbCEP024357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021735 SWODY2 SPC AC 021733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DRT INK 20 ENE ROW 35 NW TCC 50 S LAA 40 NW GCK 30 WSW STJ 45 NE UIN 15 NE DNV 25 NE DAY 15 N PKB 15 SSW CRW 35 E BNA 15 SE LIT 25 ENE GGG 15 NE TPL 30 NNW HDO 35 NNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UKI 10 ENE SJC 25 SW FAT 20 NNE EDW 35 N EED 35 NNW PRC 25 SSE FLG 65 ENE PHX 15 WNW TUS 65 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OFF ORE COAST WILL DROP SWD OFF THE CA WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE LOW AND THEN EJECT EWD INTO THE DESERTS. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH SRN CA AND NRN BAJA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL JETLETS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE QUASI- STATIONARY FROM THE TX PNHDL EWD TO THE OH VLY. ...SRN CA... MID-TROPOSPHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BANDS OF STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM THE LA BASIN SWD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL BAJA AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH OFFSHORE WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR. ...SRN PLAINS... DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH SHORT TERM MODEL SPREADS RATHER LARGE WITH RESPECT TO QPF. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE E-W FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING TSTMS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NEWD AND WEAKEN AS LLJ VEERS/ WEAKENS. DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIED WITH POTENTIAL AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. GIVEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND PRESENCE OF WARM MID-TROPOSPHERE...RISKS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SEEM RATHER LOW. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT PIN-POINTING AN EXACT AREA IS CHALLENGING GIVEN SPREAD IN MODELS. ATTM...BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE FROM NRN OK NEWD TOWARD THE OH VLY. GIVEN MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW THREATS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD NOT SPREAD EWD FROM THE CA SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY. ..RACY.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 07:02:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 02:02:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501030704.j03743Iv017879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030658 SWODY2 SPC AC 030657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MRY 30 SSE PRB 35 SSE BFL 25 NNW DAG 40 SE LAS 35 SE SGU 25 NNE U17 15 N TAD 50 SSW HLC 30 SE CNK 50 S P35 30 S SPI BMG 20 SSE SDF 40 NW CSV 25 SSW PBF 40 NNE GGG 20 N HDO DRT ...CONT... 35 S P07 25 NE MRF 70 WNW MRF 15 WNW ELP 15 ESE DMN 55 NNE DUG 30 SW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF CA...AS IT WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON TUESDAY AND MOVES ENEWD FROM SRN CA TO CO/NRN NM BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE OPEN WAVE WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FAR SRN MO SWWD TO SWRN OK...AND THEN WNWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TO SERN CO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND N-S ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER... WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING EWD TUESDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPS-BGS-MRF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...FAR ERN NM/WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE/WRN OK... SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SSELY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF TX. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD TO THE TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PER BROAD LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN TX. MODELS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FOR WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS TX INTO SRN KS WITH MID-LEVEL SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 60 KT OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN AS A STRONG 90-100 KT JET NOSES INTO WRN TX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE N-S SURFACE TROUGH...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS OK INTO FAR SRN MO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS. ..PETERS.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 17:01:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 12:01:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501031703.j03H31FH002097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031700 SWODY2 SPC AC 031659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA DAG 45 NNW EED BCE PUC EGE COS GCK EMP STL BMG DAY PKB CRW BNA PBF TYR SJT 65 WNW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OK/TX... ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES ON TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN OK. AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT AND IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...OVER WESTERN OK AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX...WILL SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER WEST TX AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES REGION. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK DURING THE EVENING. KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR AGAINST ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME IS LIMITED INSTABILITY. ..HART.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 05:57:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 00:57:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501040559.j045xmtF025862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040557 SWODY2 SPC AC 040556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 25 ENE ABI 40 SSW LTS 25 WNW CSM 25 NNW END 45 NE SZL 20 SE LAF 35 SE MIE 40 ENE SDF 55 NE MKL 50 S GLH 30 NNW ESF 40 WSW LFK 30 WNW TPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AREA AT THE START OF DAY 2 AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT 100 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM SRN NM TO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE OZARKS WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A FRONT... WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER TN/MS VALLEYS AND MUCH OF TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX TO SERN KS/SRN MO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN MINIMAL INHIBITION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN TX TO SRN IL THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...PRECLUDING INCLUSION INTO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 17:18:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 12:18:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501041720.j04HKWmu026347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041718 SWODY2 SPC AC 041717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW TPL 15 SW ABI 55 SSE CDS 10 ESE CSM 40 NNE PNC 40 SSW IRK 10 WSW BMI 30 S FDY 25 S ZZV 15 WNW 5I3 15 WNW CHA 55 W JAN 25 NNW LFK 40 NW TPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH VALLEY... CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING WEAK SFC WAVE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO EXTREME SRN IND. IT APPEARS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME AS LLJ FOCUSES FROM NRN TN INTO SRN OH. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SWD INTO TX SUGGEST CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER REGION...NEWD. NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE MAINTAINING ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 05:48:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 00:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501050550.j055oGqg024307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050548 SWODY2 SPC AC 050547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SERN STATES AND MEAN TROUGH POSITION REMAINS OVER THE WRN STATES. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TO WRN GULF COAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DEVELOPS EWD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF WA/ORE AND CENTRAL/SRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ONE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES SRN CA...AND A SECOND VERY COLD TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES AT -30 TO -36C/ DIGS SSEWD OFF THE BC/PAC NW COAST. ..PETERS.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 17:14:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 12:14:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501051716.j05HGdWJ027209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051712 SWODY2 SPC AC 051711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW AUS 20 E ACT 15 NW GGG 30 E SHV 30 W ESF 10 WSW LCH 40 SSW PSX 25 N ALI 15 S HDO 55 WNW AUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX COASTAL PLAINS... POLAR HIGH WILL FORCE COLD FRONT INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY1 PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A NWD EVOLVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP JUST OFF THE TX COAST AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUOYANT PARCELS IF LIFTED FROM NEAR 850MB...MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 07:14:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 02:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501060715.j067Fs8D009659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060712 SWODY2 SPC AC 060711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HQM 25 E AST 30 ENE OTH 35 NNE 4BK 35 SE CEC 45 SSE EKA 10 WSW UKI 30 NNE SFO 15 SE SJC 40 NW PRB 20 ESE SMX 10 S OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 40 SW CLL 65 SSW TYR 10 N PBF 35 SSW DYR 25 SSW CKV 30 NNW CSV TYS 20 NNE ATL 25 S AUO 25 S CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 34N 133W...WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z FRIDAY AS IT PHASES WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF DAY 1. ON DAY 2 THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...WITH HEIGHT RISES LIKELY FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE TX/LA COAST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTAL AREAS AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN TX/NRN LA FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO WV BY 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS. IN THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AND HEIGHTS FALL WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SWD OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW AND NRN CA. ...ERN TX/LOWER MS TO TN VALLEYS... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO SRN AR DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL ZONE PER 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD...SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG/N OF SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LA NEWD ACROSS MS TO ERN TN BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE WARM SECTOR MAY MOVE INLAND TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. THUS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT. ..PETERS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 17:20:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 12:20:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501061721.j06HLx07015775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061718 SWODY2 SPC AC 061717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HQM 25 E AST 30 ENE OTH 35 NNE 4BK 35 SE CEC 45 SSE EKA 10 WSW UKI 30 NNE SFO 15 SE SJC 40 NW PRB 20 ESE SMX 10 S OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 40 SW CLL 55 E ACT 35 N TXK 25 WNW LIT 25 WNW MEM 15 N MSL 10 NNW BHM 40 W SEM 35 SSE MCB 40 WSW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING FOR POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTENING PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THICK CLOUD COVER LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS RECOVERING AIRMASS BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG WEAKLY FOCUSED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN TX INTO NRN MS. ...WEST COAST... THERMAL PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE WRN U.S. SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED AT TIMES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SHOULD ALLOW LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO SPREAD INLAND FROM SWRN WA TO CNTRL CA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ORE COAST INTO NWRN CA. ..DARROW.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 06:56:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 01:56:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501070658.j076wc3b005904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070654 SWODY2 SPC AC 070653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N AST 20 SSE AST 25 NE ONP 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE EKA 30 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 40 N MCB 35 ENE CBM 40 WNW CHA 10 NW TYS 15 S HSS SPA 25 N AGS 60 E MCN 15 NW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN US... WSWLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2. A SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SWWD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MS AND AL. A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD ALLOWING MID-LEVEL WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS MS AND AL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS AL INTO GA AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BECOMING ISOLATED DURING THE DAY. ...WEST COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY NEAR THE COASTS OF NRN CA...ORE AND WA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 17:24:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 12:24:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501071725.j07HPogL029208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071722 SWODY2 SPC AC 071721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N AST 40 W PDX EUG 35 NW MFR 45 E ACV 25 E UKI 25 ENE SJC 35 WNW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IT APPEARS STEEPEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST FROM NEAR THE MIDDLE CALIFORNIA COAST...NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FOCUSED ZONES OF CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE DIFFICULT...BUT INSTRUMENTAL IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVERGENCE. ..DARROW.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 06:40:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 01:40:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501080641.j086fpki012441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080639 SWODY2 SPC AC 080638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WSWLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2 WITH AN UPPER-LOW SITTING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSE TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA...ORE AND CA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL PRECIPITATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT NEAR THE COAST AS THE HEAVIER RAINBANDS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND. ELSEWHERE..SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CNTRL AND ERN US WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 17:18:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 12:18:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501081720.j08HKQat031850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081718 SWODY2 SPC AC 081717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OFF THE WA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36HR. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP MARITIME AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND WITH WLY FLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE WA/ORE COAST...OR PERHAPS MOVE INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING. ..DARROW.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 06:35:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 01:35:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501090637.j096b7X6010758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090635 SWODY2 SPC AC 090634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 35 E PRX 40 NNE PRX 30 NW PGO 20 N FYV 35 NNE VIH 30 SSE SPI 25 NW HUF 15 SE IND 35 W LUK 15 NNW LEX 55 WNW LOZ 15 S BNA 10 NNE UOX 40 NE ELD TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S EKA 55 NNW SAC 45 NE SCK 30 ENE MER 30 SW FAT 30 NW SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DROP SEWD DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD TAKE IT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE SRN US ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ..BROYLES.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 05:31:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 00:31:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501140534.j0E5YbFe031640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140532 SWODY2 SPC AC 140531 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE CENTRAL/ERN NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE TROUGH -- ANCHORED BY LARGE/COMPLEX LOW COVERING MOST OF NERN CANADA. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL MINOR/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES EWD AND SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ATLANTIC COAST. SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY AS A DOUBLE-STRUCTURED BAROCLINIC ZONE STRADDLING CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WILL COMBINE DURING UPCOMING DAY-1 AND SWEEP OFFSHORE ALL BUT PERHAPS SERN-MOST FL BY 15/12Z. PRIND FRONT MAY BE TOTALLY CLEAR OF FL THEN AS WELL. SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW QUITE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN GULF -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FL LATE DAY-1 AND OFFSHORE CAROLINAS EARLY DAY-2. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST WELL OFFSHORE SRN ATLANTIC COAST ALONG SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE COLD FRONT OUT OF PENINSULA AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE BEGINNING OF PERIOD. EXPECT TSTM POTENTIAL TO BE MINIMAL...BOTH OVER SRN FL AND REMAINDER CONUS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 17:17:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 12:17:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501141720.j0EHKGec004830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141718 SWODY2 SPC AC 141717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S FMY 55 E FMY 25 W VRB 40 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... BROAD...CYCLONIC LONG WAVE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC/ WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THIS MEAN PATTERN...ONE OF WHICH BEING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE /PER CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ OVER NRN BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MEXICO/SRN TX TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NRN GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A SWWD EXTENSION TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ERN FL PENINSULA AND THEN ACROSS SRN FL. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME...ALLOWING TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY TO TEMPORARILY SAG SEWD OFF THE FL COAST. HOWEVER...WITH APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GULF...BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT NWD TO VICINITY OF S FL COAST OR POSSIBLY ONSHORE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST OVER S FL THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 05:00:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 00:00:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501150503.j0F53G9N006312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150501 SWODY2 SPC AC 150500 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVES ARE FCST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CONUS. WITH FRONTAL BAND WELL OFFSHORE OVER ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL/POLAR ANTICYCLONE AT SFC WILL KEEP AIR MASS TOO DRY/COLD/STABLE FOR TSTMS E OF ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER NERN PACIFIC IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS MUCH OF CA/NV BY END OF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TO ITS E...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO SCANT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 16:47:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 11:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501151650.j0FGoVKX021101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151648 SWODY2 SPC AC 151647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. FARTHER W...SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT AIR MASS OVER THE NATION WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE WITH NO TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 04:41:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 23:41:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501160444.j0G4iFXG020657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160442 SWODY2 SPC AC 160441 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH DAY-2 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN TROUGH...AND SOMEWHAT FLATTER RIDGE ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA THAT WILL BE PENETRATED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. MOST PROMINENT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL PACIFIC NW -- WILL AMPLIFY DURING DAY-2 OVER 4-CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGIONS...AFTER IT LEAVES LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION. ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW AND VERY HIGH BASED CONVECTION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM RISK. FARTHER W...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME EXPECTED OVER COASTAL PACIFIC NW...AHEAD OF OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH. PRIND BUOYANCY SHOULD BE TOO WEAK OVER LAND FOR GEN THUNDER RISK...THOUGH THUNDER MAY BE MORE COMMON OFFSHORE. STABILIZING EFFECTS OF STRONG CONTINENTAL/POLAR ANTICYCLONE IN LOW LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES. ..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 16:48:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 11:48:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501161650.j0GGoctR006958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161648 SWODY2 SPC AC 161647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE E AND RIDGING OFF THE CA COAST. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THIS MEAN PATTERN...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH CHINOOK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST OWING TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. ..MEAD.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 05:57:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:57:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501170559.j0H5xxNG023150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170558 SWODY2 SPC AC 170557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EXPECTED AMIDST PREVAILING WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REGIME. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV. ONE SEGMENT OF VORTICITY FIELD WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN MEX AND DECELERATE AS A WEAK UPPER LOW...WHILE PROGRESSIVE SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS WRN GULF COAST/MS DELTA REGIONS AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. DESTABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MEX PORTION OF TROUGH MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD...IN NRN MEX. SREF GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL SHORT-RANGE MODELS REASONABLY INDICATE SBCAPE WILL REMAIN LARGELY OR ENTIRELY S OF MEX BORDER ON HIGHER TERRAIN...GIVEN LACK OF SFC MOISTURE N OF BORDER. ALTHOUGH A FEW CB MAY MOVE CLOSE TO U.S. TERRITORY BETWEEN SERN AZ AND TX BIG BEND REGION...PROBABILITY OF TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR GEN THUNDER AREA ATTM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALONG PACIFIC NW COAST AMIDST PERSISTENT WAA REGIME. PRIND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE. THOUGH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY HAPPEN NEAR COAST...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER FCST ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 17:26:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 12:26:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501171729.j0HHTL3M003040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171726 SWODY2 SPC AC 171725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... A LONG FETCH OF DEEP...MOIST WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PACIFIC AND INTO THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE NWRN STATES. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THESE IMPULSES AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF THE CASCADES. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 05:17:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 00:17:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501180519.j0I5JqPH004098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180518 SWODY2 SPC AC 180517 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MAJORITY OF CONUS...BECAUSE OF MEAN RIDGE JUST INLAND W COAST AND MEAN TROUGH INVOF ATLANTIC COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DAY-2. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SOME PRECIP...EFFECTS OF LOW-THETAE TRAJECTORIES FROM CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE NOW OVER SERN CONUS WILL PREVENT ENOUGH MOISTENING/WARMING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER SW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ATTM IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE RAOB ANALYSES FROM 4 CORNERS AREA TO NWRN MEX. MAIN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING/RETROGRADING ACROSS NWRN MEX/BAJA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WAA AND MOISTENING ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF NWRN MEX...WHERE DIABATIC HEATING CAN FURTHER AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AIR MASS N OF MEX BORDER SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 17:24:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 12:24:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501181726.j0IHQb0W027921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181725 SWODY2 SPC AC 181724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WRN STATES AND MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST. INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER THE SRN TX COAST. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL INVERSION SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 05:40:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 00:40:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501190543.j0J5hPQG025875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190542 SWODY2 SPC AC 190541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 15 E AST ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND RIDGE ACROSS WRN CONUS. EXPECT CUT-OFF LOW TO MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS NEAR WRN BAJA...ASSOCIATED ASCENT/MOISTURE BEING TOO FAR S INTO MEX TO YIELD TSTM THREAT FOR BORDERLANDS. UNFAVORABLY LOW THETAE IN CONTINENTAL-POLAR TRAJECTORIES IN LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT TSTM POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN PACIFIC INVOF 150W-155W...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE WA/NRN ORE COASTS BETWEEN 20/18Z AND 21/00Z BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z SHORT-RANGE/DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE INLAND WA/ORE/ID AS IT PENETRATES POSITION OF LARGER SCALE RIDGE. ...PACIFIC NW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB ARE LIKELY OVER PACIFIC WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. AS RELATED ZONE OF DPVA MOVES ASHORE...SO MAY SOME OF THE CB WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO 200 J/KG INDICATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ABOVE NEARLY SATURATED PARCELS IN LOW LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 17:16:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 12:16:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501191718.j0JHIvQK010755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191716 SWODY2 SPC AC 191715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S./WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO SUGGEST EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME...AND CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WHICH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NATION. THUS...RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 06:05:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 01:05:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501200607.j0K67fmQ023498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200604 SWODY2 SPC AC 200603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MVN BMG LUK JKL LOZ TUP GWO GLH PBF LIT UNO MVN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN SAD ALM GDP MRF 55 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SRN STREAM AND OVER ERN STATES. NERN PACIFIC TROUGH -- NOW APCHG WA/ORE COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION LATTER HALF DAY-1...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND AMPLIFY DAY-2. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PHASE/MERGE WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW BREACHING NRN EXTENT OF MEAN RIDGE OVER WRN NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA. COMBINED TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD...FOLLOWING ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHILE SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN REGION AND LIFTS NWD. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF LOW NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC...CENTERED W OF BAJA SPUR. AS IS TYPICAL WITH CUT-OFF/SLOW-MOVING SRN STREAM SYSTEMS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS PERTURBATION BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SREF GUIDANCE. LATEST MODELS INDICATE ONLY SMALL SEGMENT OF ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FIELD WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO PREVAILING NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...WHILE MOST OF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MEX BORDERLANDS AND EJECTS A FEW DAYS LATER. THEREFORE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE OVER MID/UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW TROUGH. ...AR TO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP FROM MS DELTA REGION NEWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM PERTURBATION. IN LOW LEVELS...UPSTREAM GULF AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THROUGH PERIOD WITH MARGINAL BUT INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT. BY LAST 6-9 HOURS OF PERIOD...EXPECT SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA -- PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 500 J/KG IN SWRN PORTIONS AND DECREASING NEWD. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT - AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC WARM FROM -- AS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED PARCELS REACH LFC AMIDST WEAKENING CINH ALOFT. PRIND BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 22/12Z. ...MEX BORDERLANDS -- BIG BEND TO AZ... WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING -- VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE -- SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CB DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER MEX...A FEW BRIEF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BIG BEND MOUNTAINS WNWWD TOWARD SERN AZ. ..EDWARDS.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 17:07:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 12:07:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501201709.j0KH9qXD019588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201706 SWODY2 SPC AC 201705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 40 SSE PHX 50 N SAD 15 WNW TCS 40 NE ELP 45 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ THROUGH SRN NM INTO FAR W TX... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH FRIDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL CAPE...MAINLY FROM SRN AZ INTO SWRN NM. A FEW SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SOME HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR. ...WRN TN THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY... WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH AIR OVER THE GULF STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION AND EXPECTED WSWLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...ONLY MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FROM KY NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN/KY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY IN RESPONSE TO SEWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND EXPECTED STRONGER LIFT TO REMAIN NE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 05:37:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501210540.j0L5e3M1013131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210538 SWODY2 SPC AC 210536 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 65 WSW MIA ...CONT... 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE MLU 35 WSW UOX 35 WNW MSL 55 NNE HSV 25 ENE CHA 45 SW AVL 15 ENE SPA 30 SW SOP 15 ENE GSB 25 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMPOSITE OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...CURRENTLY IN FORMATIVE STAGES OF INTENSIFICATION/PHASING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA...WILL EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...BAJA CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...AND RETURNS NWD OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS FROM OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEEDING THE FRONT...FROM LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST AREA... WHILE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FCST TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION...MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 200-600 J/KG BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF ETA/ETAKF FCST SOUNDINGS. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 50KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING COINCIDENT WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY AS DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 17:34:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 12:34:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501211736.j0LHaZ1M009017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211734 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE MLU 20 N UOX 50 E MKL 45 ESE BWG 35 ESE LEX 30 NE JKL 20 S 5I3 25 WSW TRI 10 SE AVL 25 WSW CLT SOP 10 SSE RWI 25 NNE ECG ...CONT... 20 N VRB 65 WSW MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON SATURDAY AS IT TRACKS ESEWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD TOWARD SRN PA/WV WITH A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL BAJA CA. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TX/LA COAST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AIDING IN FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST STATES... LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER ACROSS THIS AREA ADVECTING A NARROW MOIST AXIS EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MOIST AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AVAILABILITY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 200-600 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN WAA REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED STORMS BEGINNING AT OR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN GULF COAST STATES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS...WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS WITH 40-50 KT POSSIBLE AT 850 MB SHOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 05:41:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501220544.j0M5iBef000635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220543 SWODY2 SPC AC 220542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S FMY 20 N PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ARCTIC AIR MOVES SEWD INTO THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY STILL OVER S FL. FARTHER W...CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE NRN BAJA/NRN MEXICO AREA. ...S FL... TRAILING PORTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER S FL BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES...TIME OF DAY AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THIS AREA. ..DIAL.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 17:27:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 12:27:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501221729.j0MHTfYB001775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221727 SWODY2 SPC AC 221726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND INTENSE MID-UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DELMARVA TO SERN NY REGION AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON DAY 2. ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT ALSO TRACKS NEWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE PORTION THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 32N 147W/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE SWRN STATES. ...SRN FL... STRONG NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER THIS BOUNDARY SWD AND SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONGEST UPPER FORCING REMAINING WELL NNE OF THIS REGION AND TIME OF DAY...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUTLOOK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD. ...SRN AZ... LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM DRY ELY FLOW TO SELY AND SLY ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-350 MB LAYER EXPECTED TO COOL BY 2-3 DEGREES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OPEN WAVE SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG OR NEAR THE SONORA BORDER. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS THREAT. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 05:44:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 00:44:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501230547.j0N5l06c018183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230544 SWODY2 SPC AC 230543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST AND GULF COASTS WITH DRY AND COOL/COLD SURFACE AIR MASS LEADING TO MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY SPINNING WWD OVER THE BAJA REGION...IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND TRANSLATE EAST FROM AZ/NM TO OK/TX FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL BE KICKED EAST BY PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE FCST TO APPROACH THE CA COAST DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. LIFT AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND DURATION OF CG LTG ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 17:20:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 12:20:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501231722.j0NHMfLK004761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231720 SWODY2 SPC AC 231719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGHS...ONE APPROACHING THE CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THE SECOND MOVING ACROSS WRN CANADA ON MONDAY...WILL CONCURRENTLY AID IN BREAKING DOWN THE WRN RIDGE. THE APPROACH OF THE SRN TROUGH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT AN ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE BAJA CLOSED LOW ACROSS AZ/NM TO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. WEAK ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER... ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND DURATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 05:39:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 00:39:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501240541.j0O5fN4o003790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240539 SWODY2 SPC AC 240538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WITHIN PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL FALL THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS MOVE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS CA. CUTOFF LOW AHEAD OF THESE PACIFIC DISTURBANCES... CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE DOWNSTREAM TO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THIS SAME IMPULSE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING TUESDAY. WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ONTARIO TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON DAY TWO...AND ACT TO REINFORCE THE COLD/STABLE AIR MASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH... MIDWEST...AND EAST. WHILE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CA. ...CA... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/SHOWERS AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NRN CA COAST ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL VALLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM...COUPLED WITH MODEST 2M DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F...MAY SUPPORT MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 250 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...COULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD LAYER RESULTS IN MARGINAL EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF -12C TO -18C. WITH CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING GENERATION DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN THIS FCST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A TSTM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 17:09:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 12:09:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501241711.j0OHBVCW015617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241709 SWODY2 SPC AC 241708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LAX 30 W BFL SJC 35 ESE UKI RBL 30 E RBL 45 W TVL 30 WSW BIH NID DAG RAL 35 SSE LGB 15 WSW LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGE OVER W...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD BREAKDOWN OF WRN RIDGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. LONG-LIVED UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD THEN EWD THROUGH SRN ROCKIES DAY-1...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND AL/GA DAY-2 AS OPEN WAVE TROUGH. HIGHEST AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL DAY-3 PERIOD...BUT SEVERAL MINOR PERTURBATIONS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CA COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW. ...CA CENTRAL VALLEY TO L.A. BASIN... TSTM POTENTIAL MARGINAL FOR GEN THUNDER FCST...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITIES BEING 25/18-26/00Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- BENEATH SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW -- WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS REGION. MEAN LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC WITH MUCAPES REMAINING BELOW 100 J/KG...EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON. DIABATIC SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD WARM LOWER LEVELS OF SOUNDINGS ENOUGH TO YIELD 150-300 J/KG MUCAPE...AMIDST LITTLE CINH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE WEAK OUTSIDE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AREAS...ISOLATED/EPISODIC TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. ...SERN CONUS... SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA IN ITS PATH...FROM CENTRAL OK EARLY IN PERIOD ESEWD ACROSS TN AND CENTRAL/NRN GA BY 26/12Z. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER S AND SE...OVER GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF LA/MS/AL. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS IN BOTH CORRIDORS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL. ATTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO SMALL/CONDITIONAL FOR GEN THUNDER AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 06:15:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 01:15:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501250617.j0P6HrNP022830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250615 SWODY2 SPC AC 250614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW OTH 40 E ACV 40 SE RBL 45 ENE MER 55 S BIH 40 S DRA 40 SSE IGM 35 S PRC 65 ENE PHX 25 NNW SAD 35 WNW SVC 25 ENE SVC 45 NNW ELP 20 NNE ELP 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG ZONAL JET OVER THE NERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING SLOWLY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET CORE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA AND THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN GRADUAL AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE AREAS. BY EARLY THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RESEMBLE A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND STRONG DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE PERSISTS BETWEEN CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. ...CA... IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF SFO WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE ORE/WA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE CA COAST. STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM AROUND 140W WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AIDED BY DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE COAST RANGES AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN CA ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADS ATOP HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS...RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX...INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 17:31:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 12:31:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501251733.j0PHXYWR008972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 10 NW EUG LMT 35 NNE SAC 55 S BIH LAS INW 85 ESE SOW 45 WSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2 PERIOD...AMIDST SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE WAVE TRAIN THAT HAS FEATURED ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK -- WILL ACCELERATE ESEWD OFF GA/SC COAST DURING PERIOD AMIDST CONFLUENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ALOFT. SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS -- WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MS VALLEY...APPALACHIANS AND SRN PLAINS. FRONT SHOULD REACH NRN FL AND NRN GULF BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AROUND 27/00Z. ...W COAST AND SW... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NRN STREAM SEGMENT OF LANDFALLING UPPER TROUGH WILL FEATURE TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER MIDLEVEL DPVA/LIFT...BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE SRN STREAM PORTION CONTRIBUTES TO INLAND DESTABILIZATION AS FAR E AS SRN BASIN-AND-RANGE REGION. EXPECT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THROUGHOUT FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM LOWER CO VALLEY EWD BECAUSE OF SFC HEATING. HEATING WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF CA...BUT WITH STRONGER FORCING ALOFT. NET RESULT SHOULD BE 50-300 J/KG MLCAPE IN POCKETS ACROSS MUCH OF GEN THUNDER AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 06:07:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 01:07:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501290610.j0T6AbwY022724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290608 SWODY2 SPC AC 290606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 30 SSW HOB 20 W ROW 20 ENE TCS 45 SSW SAD 55 SSE GBN YUM 25 NE TRM 45 W DRA 65 ENE TPH 45 SSW ENV SLC 35 N VEL 50 ENE CAG 25 N COS 25 S LHX 15 E DHT 35 NNE PVW 50 NNW ABI 20 N ACT 55 ENE CLL 30 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GPT 55 NNE MOB 45 SSW CBM TUP 50 NNW MSL 40 S BNA 10 NW AND 35 SSW CLT 25 NE SOP 25 SE RWI 40 ENE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO AZ WILL EJECT EWD AT A SLOWER PACE. RESULTANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER TX WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD SWD WITH OVERALL HIGHER PRESSURES THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. AS A RESULT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TX...AND THAT MAY PROVE TO BE ISOLATED ...FOCUSED EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPSTREAM...CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALLOW SHALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH CRITICAL CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING GENERATION. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES. ...SERN U.S... MOISTENING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN INCREASINGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN ELEVATED FASHION AS POLAR AIRMASS WEDGED EAST/SOUTH OF MOUNTAINS BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN GA LATE. EVEN SO IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL PROVE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. ..DARROW.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 17:06:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 12:06:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501291709.j0TH90NE027234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291707 SWODY2 SPC AC 291705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ORL 15 NW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 15 WNW VLD 40 NNE SAV 15 NE FLO 40 N RWI 25 SSE RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 30 SSW HOB 25 SW ROW 35 NNW TCS 55 W SOW 20 N PRC 25 WSW GCN 30 W PGA 20 SE 4HV 15 ESE GJT 15 SW COS 15 WNW LTS 45 SW PRX 45 ESE SHV 15 E ESF 45 N LFT LFT 15 SSW 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE SWWD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN STATES. AT LOW-LEVELS...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F LIKELY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NERN MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TX...CREATING STRONG VEERING WINDS BELOW 700 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AS SHOWN ON THE DAY 2 KCRP 22Z FORECAST SOUNDING...SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FORECAST BY THE MODELS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. IF CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONT...AND STORMS DO INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN UPPER-LOW WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WEST TX AND THE SRN ROCKIES ON DAY 2. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 05:45:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 00:45:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501300548.j0U5mpSa028565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300547 SWODY2 SPC AC 300546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 30 SSE JCT 35 NNW AUS 35 NNW CLL 20 S LFK 20 SW POE 15 ENE LFT 35 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX... IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT CHANGES...IT APPEARS WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. AS SFC PRESSURES RISE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX...LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY AND A REFOCUS OF SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY TRAILING THE WIND SHIFT UP TO 100MI...THEN DEVELOPING SEWD WITH TIME AS NLY FLOW DEEPENS. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND POOR INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 17:20:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 12:20:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200501301723.j0UHN0jk009433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301719 SWODY2 SPC AC 301718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 WNW AUS 40 NNE CLL 20 WSW POE 10 ENE LFT 35 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SWD ACROSS SOUTH AND SE TX SUNDAY. OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COOL DOME...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF NRN NM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS EAST TX MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ..BROYLES.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.