[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281716
SWODY2
SPC AC 281715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LFK 40 ESE ACT
25 WSW SEP 50 NNW ABI 20 SE CDS 25 NNW LTS 10 S OKC 50 NW MLC 10 W
PGO 40 N TXK 35 WNW ELD 50 ESE SHV 50 NNW POE 30 WNW LFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION PROCESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH AN EXTENSIVE BELT OF DEEP LAYER
NWLY/WLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
GULF. FAST STJ WILL PERSIST FROM BAJA TO FL WITH AT LEAST ONE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS STREAM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC TO NRN
MEXICO. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE SITUATED
ON EITHER SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE WESTERNMOST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER WA/ORE...WHILE
THE OTHER IMPULSE DROPS SEWD ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS...
FROM CO TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...NERN TX/SRN OK...
WHILE MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND GENERALLY
STABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...WEAK RETURN OF LOW THROUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FCST ACROSS SCNTRL TX ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINTAINED
BY WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN NORTHEAST
UPPER LOW...AND FAST SRN STREAM...WILL MAINTAIN ZONE OF DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS TX AND THE NWRN GULF COAST. MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AIR PARCELS
ORIGINATING IN THE MOIST AXIS ATTAINING AN LFC ABOVE 850MB ACROSS
NRN/NERN TX. WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM CONTRIBUTING
TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STRONG TSTMS IS POSSIBLE. ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 02/28/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.