[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170557
SWODY2
SPC AC 170555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W UKI 35 NE SAC 45
NNE BIH 60 N DRA 45 E SGU 25 NNE FLG 40 ESE PHX 50 S GBN 65 SE YUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES...

REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST SHOULD
PERSIST INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA EMANATING
FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NEWD INTO CA AND THE SWRN STATES. WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF
NW-SE ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND
SRN CA WHERE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. WHERE SURFACE
HEATING CAN OCCUR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME THREAT APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL...AND ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

...SRN PLAINS...

ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ALONG AND S OF RETREATING DEFORMATION ZONE FROM TX NEWD INTO
OK. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS MODIFYING GULF AIR ADVECTS NWD
THROUGH TX UNDERNEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS INSTABILITY GENERALLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.