[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021707
SWODY2
SPC AC 021706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 10 SW PIE
...CONT... PFN 35 SE MCN 40 SE AHN 15 SW GSP 25 NNE CLT 25 W RDU 40
SE EWN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME PHASING BETWEEN NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MIDDLE STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL...A
NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL STRENGTHEN BENEATH THE NOSE OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A WELL-FORMED
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA...AND ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER.

...SOUTHEAST...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE DAY FROM GA INTO SC...WITHIN ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE AIRMASS. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE WRN CAROLINAS AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INTENSIFIES ACROSS SC.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITHIN STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER ERN SC
SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED.
THUS...WHILE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NRN FL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO NEAR OR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WEST AND EAST OF THE PENINSULA. INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AS
WELL.

..CARBIN.. 02/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.