[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011715
SWODY2
SPC AC 011714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 10 NNW MCB
35 W MEI 30 W TCL 25 NW BHM 15 NE GAD 25 S RMG 25 SSE ATL 20 S MCN
45 NE MGR 35 S VLD 25 W CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO/GULF OF CA...WHILE AN EJECTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE
NCNTRL GULF COAST.

...NCNTRL GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH...
SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SERN LA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY NEAR
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WHERE
WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM INLAND ATOP COOL/STABLE
SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE
EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SURFACE LOW AND 
WARM SECTOR WILL MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS AND NCEP-SREF MEAN MASS FIELDS. THEREFORE...
WHILE A COUPLE OF STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST FROM THE MS DELTA EAST TO THE WRN FL PNHDL...BULK OF
ACTIVITY WILL POSE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
DIMINISHING FORCING.

..CARBIN.. 02/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.