From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 05:11:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 00:11:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502010514.j115EI1D023454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010511 SWODY2 SPC AC 010509 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LCH 20 WNW JAN 30 ENE CBM 15 SW RMG 25 SSE AND 25 SSE CAE 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE JAX 50 SSE CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF STATES TO SC... UPSTREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL AID NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SFC LOW ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. RESULTANT MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE DEEP CONVECTION INTERCEPTS WHAT LITTLE BUOYANCY IS AVAILABLE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS ISOLATED...MAINLY ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...EWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 17:14:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 12:14:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502011717.j11HHigU005993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011715 SWODY2 SPC AC 011714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 10 NNW MCB 35 W MEI 30 W TCL 25 NW BHM 15 NE GAD 25 S RMG 25 SSE ATL 20 S MCN 45 NE MGR 35 S VLD 25 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVE TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE BAJA NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO/GULF OF CA...WHILE AN EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE NCNTRL GULF COAST. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH... SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SERN LA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY NEAR SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WHERE WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM INLAND ATOP COOL/STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR WILL MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS AND NCEP-SREF MEAN MASS FIELDS. THEREFORE... WHILE A COUPLE OF STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM THE MS DELTA EAST TO THE WRN FL PNHDL...BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL POSE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING FORCING. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 05:45:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502020548.j125mNUB026168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020547 SWODY2 SPC AC 020546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 55 ENE ABY 45 WSW AGS 15 ESE AND 15 WSW CLT 30 W SOP 15 NE ILM ...CONT... 30 N PBI 30 SSE SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD TO NEAR THE SC COAST BY 04/12Z. DEEP WLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF BOTH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WRN ATLANTIC WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. POOR INSTABILITY INLAND WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT SFC-BASED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG WIND SHIFT...WHEREAS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE ROOTED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 850MB AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. ..DARROW.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 17:07:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 12:07:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502021709.j12H9wK8010497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021707 SWODY2 SPC AC 021706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 10 SW PIE ...CONT... PFN 35 SE MCN 40 SE AHN 15 SW GSP 25 NNE CLT 25 W RDU 40 SE EWN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SOME PHASING BETWEEN NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL...A NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL STRENGTHEN BENEATH THE NOSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A WELL-FORMED CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA...AND ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. ...SOUTHEAST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY FROM GA INTO SC...WITHIN ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE AIRMASS. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INTENSIFIES ACROSS SC. GIVEN ANTECEDENT COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITHIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER ERN SC SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...WHILE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NRN FL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEST AND EAST OF THE PENINSULA. INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ..CARBIN.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 06:26:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 01:26:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502030629.j136TTrX026479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030626 SWODY2 SPC AC 030625 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 ESE SEA 10 SW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE JET MAX WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITHIN STRONGER/DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NWRN MEXICO AS SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO FAR WEST TX LATE. IT APPEARS THE LOW LATITUDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AZ...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ..DARROW.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 17:02:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 12:02:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502031704.j13H4hLB015216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031702 SWODY2 SPC AC 031701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 ESE SEA 10 SW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS... PRIMARILY WEST OF THE WA CASCADES. ...DESERT SW... CNTRL BAJA CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD INTO SONORA LATE FRIDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WRAPPING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD TOWARD SRN AZ/NM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RESULTANT SHOWERS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THOUGH ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 05:51:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:51:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502040556.j145u0LZ021138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040551 SWODY2 SPC AC 040550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU TUS 10 SE INW DRO ALS 40 W RTN 25 W LVS 4CR ALM GDP FST 20 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STABLY STRATIFIED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE U.S...AND MODELS INDICATE LITTLE MODIFICATION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO CLOSED LOW...NOW WEST OF BAJA...IS PROGGED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REACH SONORA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWER-LEVELS...HOWEVER...ARE INITIALLY DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD...WITH SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUS...ANY MOISTENING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO EVAPORATION FROM PRECIPITATION ALOFT...AND THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STABLE STRATIFICATION AND PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES APPEAR TO EXIST SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS TOWARD FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AREA SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF INTO TEXAS WILL OCCUR...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL STRONGER UPPER FORCING HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD CAP RETURNING MOISTURE. ..KERR.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 16:17:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 11:17:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502041619.j14GJigr018579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041617 SWODY2 SPC AC 041616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU TUS 10 SE INW DRO ALS 40 W RTN 25 W LVS 4CR ALM GDP FST 20 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... BAJA UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT ENEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES ON SATURDAY. COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE HEATING IN WAKE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SERN AZ INTO NM. THERMAL BUOYANCY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA WHERE MOST UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LOCATED. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD FAR W TX LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE THEY CROSS THE RIO GRANDE. ...SRN PLAINS... A COUPLE OF ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL/N TX SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING IMPULSE. MUCAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN SUB-10 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 05:49:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 00:49:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502050551.j155pxE2007836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050550 SWODY2 SPC AC 050548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 45 SSE CLL GGG FSM UMN VIH 35 SSW BLV 10 SE CGI 10 SSE DYR 15 SW HEZ 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N BLI 50 ENE SEA YKM 45 SSW BOI SLC VEL GJT 10 SSE U17 P38 15 W LOL MFR 25 NNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE BAJA VICINITY. REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE PROGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND SHEARING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD...AS ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD BASE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FOUR CORNERS... DESPITE LINGERING COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGIN OF DIGGING CYCLONIC JET. THIS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS FORCING DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. ...WESTERN GULF COAST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST WEAKENS. BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS SUGGEST TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OZARK PLATEAU...JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND FORCING ALONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...NEAR SATURATED MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...FROM PRIOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME...WILL ONLY SUPPORT VERY WEAK CAPE. EVEN RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LOW UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WHEN UPPER FORCING WITH HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHENING. ..KERR.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 17:11:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:11:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502051713.j15HDh5C029916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051710 SWODY2 SPC AC 051709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N BLI 50 ENE SEA YKM 45 SSW BOI SLC VEL GJT 10 SSE U17 P38 15 W LOL MFR 25 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP 55 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 20 NE HDO 40 S FTW 15 NNE ADM 35 SW TUL VIH 50 N POF 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW GLH 20 NE POE 20 SE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW-GREAT BASIN... UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A LOW SUNDAY AND DROP SEWD INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY MONDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG/NORTH OF CYCLONIC JET AXIS WILL SPREAD SEWD DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SPORADIC TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS THE WASATCH. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG/WEST OF THE WA/ORE CASCADES. ...SRN PLAINS-OZARKS... MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE EJECTING BAJA TROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO OK/AR AND SRN MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MINIMAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIMIT THREATS FOR A WIDESPREAD TSTM THREAT. RATHER...ISOLD LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL THEN INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN TX. ..RACY.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 16:16:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 11:16:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502061618.j16GIpZx011267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061615 SWODY2 SPC AC 061614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ENV 35 WSW OGD 20 ESE EVW 55 W CAG 25 WNW MTJ 35 NNE 4BL 25 NNW U17 55 WNW MLF 15 ESE ENV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 45 WNW VCT AUS TPL 45 ENE DAL 15 SSE PGO HRO 55 E VIH 10 WSW EVV 30 SSW HSV 40 E MEI 25 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-SOUTH... MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO AT MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF RAIN/ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD OR VIGOROUS TSTMS. IMPULSE NEARING SAN DIEGO ATTM WILL TURN EWD AND REACH THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN GRADUALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WEAK RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BENEATH THESE LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THERMAL BUOYANCY DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE FIVE PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILISTIC THREAT. ...ERN GREAT BASIN... UPPER LOW VCNTY WA COAST WILL DROP SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COMBO OF OROGRAPHICS...WEAK BUOYANCY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN REGION...PRIMARILY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..RACY.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 05:55:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 00:55:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502120558.j1C5wA63006520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120555 SWODY2 SPC AC 120554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 55 E CLL 30 NNW GGG 25 ENE PGO 30 NE FYV 20 ESE SGF 20 SE TBN 55 NNW POF 20 SSW CGI 10 SSE DYR 10 NNE UOX 35 NNE JAN 20 E MCB 30 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFE 50 SW ALI 45 NW NIR 15 ENE AUS 50 NE ACT 25 ESE DUA 15 SSW MKO 40 ENE BVO 45 SSW OJC 35 E MKC 30 SSW IRK 40 ENE UIN 10 S BMI 10 SW LAF MIE 25 SE DAY 30 NNW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 25 ENE HSS 25 W AND 40 NNW MCN 15 SW ABY 25 S TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CA HAS BEGUN ADVANCING EWD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO MO BY NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH OK AND NW TX WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM SWRN MO INTO WRN AR AND ERN TX. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX LATER TODAY AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF AR AND SRN MO WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE TX AND LA COASTS. DESPITE THE MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -18C AT 6 KM ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SET THE STATE FOR DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN TX INTO PARTS OF SRN MO...AR AND LA. AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN DRY SLOT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 900 TO 1200 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN MO INTO AR...LA AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO PARTS OF SERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SERN U.S.... AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PERSIST INTO THE SERN STATES MUCH OF SUNDAY. THOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HEATING WILL RESULT IN MEAGER INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..DIAL.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 17:32:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 12:32:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502121736.j1CHa7ux026938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121734 SWODY2 SPC AC 121733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 10 W CLL 35 SW TXK 50 SSW HRO 35 NW POF 25 S CGI 35 ENE DYR 40 SW CBM 45 SW LUL 30 SSW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MFE 45 SW ALI 45 NW NIR 15 ENE AUS 25 ESE DUA 40 ENE BVO 15 WSW SZL 35 SE BRL 25 WSW JXN 40 ESE DTW 10 NE EKN 15 WNW AND 35 E MCN 35 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS -- WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY / ERN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER KS / OK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME / MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS E TX / THE OZARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE LOWER OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS AND TX GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO RETREAT EWD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING SLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS PERIOD. AREA OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING SHOULD BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AR / LA / SE TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX / LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY ELEVATED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN LA DURING THE DAY MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES. WITH STRONG / WEAKLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY -- AND EWD TOWARD SRN MS / SRN AL LATER IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / COOLING ALOFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD E TX / AR BEHIND INITIAL PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/ TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WOULD LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND ERN AR SWWD ACROSS NWRN LA INTO PARTS OF E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THREAT TO DECREASE...LIMITED THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- MAY PERSIST EWD INTO MS WRN TN INTO THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 05:54:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 00:54:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502130558.j1D5w5Qe001355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130555 SWODY2 SPC AC 130554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ESE GPT 60 NNE MOB 20 SSE 0A8 30 ESE BHM 25 NE ANB 35 N ATL 15 WSW AHN 30 WSW AGS 35 SSE AGS 35 W CHS 25 NNE CHS 30 N CRE 15 NW OAJ 35 N EWN 15 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN U.S. MONDAY AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM VORT MAX AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CONSOLIDATE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP AS SRN STREAM VORT MAX APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD VEER AND WEAKEN MONDAY AS PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS TOWARD THE NERN U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT NEWD ADVECTION OF MODIFYING GULF AIR AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION INTO GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF AL AND GA EARLY MONDAY. INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM SRN AL...SWRN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTING INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM. ..DIAL.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 17:13:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 12:13:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502131716.j1DHGxTK021402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131714 SWODY2 SPC AC 131713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 15 WNW BTR 40 WNW JAN 10 SW UOX 40 WNW MSL 55 WNW CHA 45 NNE ATL 35 SSE AND 20 WSW FLO 30 ESE FAY 35 N EWN 35 SE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY FORECAST ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL DEAMPLIFY / MOVE EWD THIS PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE. AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS LIKEWISE FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AS PRIMARY LOW SHIFTS NNEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- AND THUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALONG REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MS / ERN LA EWD INTO NRN FL / GA / COASTAL CAROLINAS... DESPITE A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS PERIOD...ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. THIS AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...THUS LIMITING CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- ALBEIT QUITE LIMITED -- WOULD LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION...WHERE COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY-SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW A WEAK TORNADO SPIN-UP BENEATH A BRIEFLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT. LIKEWISE...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST COULD ALSO SUPPORT A SIMILAR THREAT FOR A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO. OVERALL HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW THUS NOT WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITY LINES THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 05:41:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:41:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502140544.j1E5imBE007068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140542 SWODY2 SPC AC 140541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BKW 35 WSW BKW 45 SSE JKL 15 N CSV 20 ESE MKL 30 N MEM 10 NE ARG 60 NW POF 35 SSW STL 15 NNE SLO 15 NNW BMG 20 W DAY 10 NNE CMH 20 NE ZZV 35 SSW HLG 40 W EKN 30 NNE BKW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...OH THROUGH TN VALLEYS... SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM TX THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR OVER THE WRN GULF WILL YIELD LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THUS...DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 17:31:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 12:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502141734.j1EHY8w5014780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SSU 10 E TRI 45 SSW TYS 20 ENE HSV 10 NNE UOX 25 E LIT 55 NNW LIT 20 SW TBN 30 NNE VIH 30 SSW SPI 25 W DAY 30 NW CMH 10 SW CAK 10 ESE PIT 15 N EKN 10 WNW SSU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING REX BLOCK FROM THE GULF OF AK SWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL STATES. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL EXTEND TO THE ERN SEABOARD AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN STATES DE-AMPLIFIES AND MOVES ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SERN CANADA...AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS NOSE INTO SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO THE OK/KS BORDER WILL STRENGTHEN BY 16/00Z BENEATH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. ...SERN MO/NERN AR ENEWD ALONG OH/TN VALLEYS... ALTHOUGH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS REGION...LIMITED RETURN OF MODIFIED WRN GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE AVAILABLE SBCAPE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN MO/LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSLATING NEWD SHOULD AID IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTMS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STRONG...DEEP UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING TREND FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF WSW-ENE BANDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SWD. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 05:48:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 00:48:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502150551.j1F5pKHA030362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150549 SWODY2 SPC AC 150548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO 35 NW FLO 40 ESE CLT 35 SSW GSO 15 NE GSO 20 SE LYH 25 SE CHO 25 SSW DCA 15 SE BWI 30 NE DOV 10 E ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S EKA 45 WSW RBL 60 N SAC 40 SW TVL 30 E MER 50 S FAT 20 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES WITH A FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN U.S. SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE TODAY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF LATER TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACCOMPANYING THE DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW WILL BE LIMITED...WITH ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS NEAR AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. DESPITE THE LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. ETA MAY BE OVER FORECASTING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OVER ERN NC INTO PARTS OF ERN VA. HOWEVER...MLCAPE COULD RANGE FROM 300 TO 800 J/KG BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT INTERCEPTS AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. STRONG LARGELY SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...SO ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 05:32:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502160535.j1G5ZjHh019831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160534 SWODY2 SPC AC 160533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM W TX WWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVE INLAND. OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 17:25:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 12:25:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502161728.j1GHSafN027971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161726 SWODY2 SPC AC 161725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 35 NW BFL 35 NNW NID 30 N LAS 10 WNW PGA 30 W FMN 35 S GNT 40 N SAD 70 NNW GBN 25 S BLH 15 SSW IPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING OVER HUDSON BAY...A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPANSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF COAST. ...SRN CA COAST INTO THE DESERT SW... SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ORIGINATING FROM THE BASE OF ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CA/BAJA CA INTO THE DESERT SW AND ADJACENT SRN ROCKIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE SRN SIERRAS EWD ACROSS THE MOGOLLON PLATEAU OWING TO RATHER STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM...WEAK OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND EPISODIC DEEPER-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE W. ..MEAD.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 05:56:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 00:56:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502170559.j1H5xWna027417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170557 SWODY2 SPC AC 170555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W UKI 35 NE SAC 45 NNE BIH 60 N DRA 45 E SGU 25 NNE FLG 40 ESE PHX 50 S GBN 65 SE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST SHOULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NEWD INTO CA AND THE SWRN STATES. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF NW-SE ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN CA WHERE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THREAT APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL...AND ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ...SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG AND S OF RETREATING DEFORMATION ZONE FROM TX NEWD INTO OK. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS MODIFYING GULF AIR ADVECTS NWD THROUGH TX UNDERNEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS INSTABILITY GENERALLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST. ..DIAL.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 17:26:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 12:26:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502171729.j1HHTNgd007607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171727 SWODY2 SPC AC 171726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W UKI 35 NE SAC 45 NNE BIH 30 SSE CDC 25 NNW DRO 10 W 4SL 80 NNW SVC 25 SSE SAD 20 SW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD LARGELY IN PART TO WEAKENING OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NEWD FROM BASE OF THIS LOW INTO THE DESERT SW WHILE STRONG NRN BRANCH FEATURE RETROGRADES SWWD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. FARTHER E... DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH FAST WNWLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SERN STATES WHILE LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. ...CA INTO THE SWRN DESERTS... WHILE ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA ON FRIDAY AND INTO AZ FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY STEEPER. ..MEAD.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 06:05:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 01:05:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502180608.j1I68qGt001308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180607 SWODY2 SPC AC 180605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 30 WNW FST 25 ESE ABI 35 NW MLC 35 SW CNU 25 SSW HLC 40 N GLD 45 N IML 30 NNE GRI 40 SW IRK 20 ENE MDH 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CBM 35 NW HEZ 45 W POE 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP 40 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CEC 45 N MER 30 ENE FAT 70 NNE NID 20 S 4HV 20 SSW GUC 20 NNE 4SL 30 E SOW 65 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPS SWD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM THE PACIFIC LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE DESERTS AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE 4-CORNERS EARLY SATURDAY AND TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A LEE-LOW OVER CO THAT WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN KS BY 12Z/20TH. FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS/PCPN OVER A WIDE SWATH OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. MINIMAL HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS LOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD PCPN BAND...HOWEVER. MORE LIKELY AREA FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM SRN NEB...NRN KS INTO PARTS OF MO AND AR WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. MOISTENING COLUMN AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. OTHER TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND PARTS OF CA WHERE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS COASTAL CA. ..RACY.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 17:22:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 12:22:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502181725.j1IHPmrW007245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181721 SWODY2 SPC AC 181720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CEC 45 N MER 30 ENE FAT 70 NNE NID 20 S 4HV 20 SSW GUC 20 NNE 4SL 30 E SOW 65 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 10 E INK 35 WNW ABI 35 NW MLC 35 SW CNU 25 SSW HLC 40 N GLD 45 N IML 30 NNW OMA 15 SW OTM 25 W MVN 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CBM 35 NW HEZ 45 W POE 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP 40 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A CONTINUED BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IN SEVERAL PIECES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 29N AND 124W/ WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RETROGRADE SWWD...FORMING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND CA COASTS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THIS LOW GENERALLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME FROM THIS LOW SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. ...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS... INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO SRN OK BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A PLUME OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7 -8 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD NRN EXTENT OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO LI/S OF -2 TO -3...MLCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG...AND ALSO A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM ERN TX INTO AR ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ANY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE UNLIKELY FARTHER W ACROSS MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS OWING TO GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN AN ARC FROM NRN KS/SRN NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG NOSE OF 50-60KT LLJ. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...CA TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION... RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET AXES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY WIDE CORRIDOR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD...WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MORE LOCALIZED ASCENT IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 06:30:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 01:30:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502190633.j1J6XXVD004828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190630 SWODY2 SPC AC 190629 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW HOT 50 NNE LIT 45 ENE PBF 45 S ELD 20 W LFK 25 NW CLL 40 NNW ACT 40 WSW PRX 45 NNW HOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT 55 NW MWL 25 SSW JLN 35 ENE SZL 40 NW LAF 15 ENE CMH 15 N BLF 30 NE RMG 15 E ESF 35 NNE VCT 55 NNE DRT 50 WSW SJT 40 N SJT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE DESERTS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE OH VLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE DESERTS/SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NERN KS EARLY SUNDAY TO CNTRL IND BY SUNDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO OK WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER OH VLY TO CNTRL TX. THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS. ...CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER OH VLY... LATEST OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS PENETRATED WELL S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUGGESTS THAT RETURN FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT BE OF HIGH QUALITY. MOREOVER... LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE SRN STREAM WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO A RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD...BUT WILL REINFORCE THE EML FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY. NAM/NAMKF SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO UNSTABLE...WITH THE GFS SCENARIO PREFERRED. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED FROM CNTRL TX-ARKLATEX-MID SOUTH/LOWER OH VLY WHERE MLCAPES WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TSTMS COULD INITIATE IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX TO THE ARKLATEX MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50-55 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH POSSIBLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MOVING INTO WRN/MID TN AND NWRN MS LATER AT NIGHT. FARTHER N...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY...PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN FARTHER SW...PRESENCE OF WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AOA 50 KTS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 17:28:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 12:28:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502191731.j1JHVfFG006125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191724 SWODY2 SPC AC 191723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE COU 20 E UIN 25 N CMI 15 SSE IND 20 E SDF 40 E BWG 55 SSW CKV 25 NNE MEM 50 SW ARG 30 WNW UNO 10 ESE COU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRA 45 S SLC 30 SSE CAG 45 W ALS 25 WNW ABQ 50 SSE PHX 20 WSW GBN 30 NNW EED 40 ENE DRA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 50 WSW FAT PMD 45 S RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT 50 ESE SPS 20 WNW JLN 25 NE BIE 20 N OMA RFD 20 NW SBN 15 ENE CMH 15 N BLF 30 NE RMG 15 E ESF 35 NNE VCT 55 NNE DRT 50 WSW SJT 40 N SJT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NRN UT AND SRN CA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE OVER THE PLAINS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...PRIOR TO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NERN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NERN MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY NRN OH BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS. ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY... THOUGH MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS REMAINS CONFINED TO THE LOWER TX COAST AND DEEP S TX...INSPECTION OF 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWS RICHER MOISTURE BASED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AS FAR N AS FTW AND SHV. SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD SHOULD ENHANCE THE NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MO AND SRN IL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB AND RESULTANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /APPROACHING 8 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...EVEN DESPITE THE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGION ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 1 KM OR LESS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TSTMS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH SRN EXTENT. ...ARKLATEX... WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS REGION IS WHETHER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE FARTHER S. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM AREA. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ..MEAD.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 06:42:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 01:42:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502200645.j1K6jJAe031533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200643 SWODY2 SPC AC 200642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UKI 50 NNE MER 50 WNW NID 50 WSW EED 10 W PRC 25 ENE PHX 75 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SSI 15 WNW MAI 25 E BTR 35 WNW LFT 15 WNW HOU 55 SE AUS 40 E TPL 25 WSW TYR 40 WSW TXK 40 SE PGO 25 SE FYV 15 WSW HRO 35 ENE HRO 25 SSE CGI 40 ENE PAH 35 N SDF 30 WSW CMH 30 SSW HLG 20 S MGW 40 N SSU 10 SE SSU LYH 35 NNW RIC 15 ENE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER DROPS SWD SUNDAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES BREAKING OFF OF THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EWD. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE APPROACHING SRN CA EARLY SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD REACH THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TN VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE BRITISH COLUMBIA IMPULSE WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG UPPER LOW AND MOVE TO NEAR SRN CA BY LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPING NWD THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS AR SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A DRYLINE SWWD INTO ERN TX. ...LOWER MS VLY/MID-SOUTH... CONVECTION/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT 60S DEW POINTS NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC WITH H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID MINUS TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY/MID-SOUTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK WSWLY H85 FLOW...THERE COULD BE A PROPENSITY FOR EITHER THE ELEVATED MORNING ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD WWD TOWARD THE THETA-E AXIS...OR FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY BOUNDARIES. OVERALL THREAT IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEW CA SYSTEM. GIVEN TSTMS...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE UNIDIRECTIONALITY OF THE FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS THAT TSTM CLUSTERS COULD DEVELOP SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS GIVING WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS BACKBUILD WWD WITH TIME. OVERALL UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK...BUT WILL INCLUDE A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PROBABILISTIC HAIL AND WIND. ...SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VLY... WAVES OF CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SRN CA AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLD HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A WATERSPOUT/TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 06:08:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 01:08:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502210610.j1L6AxxN016318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210608 SWODY2 SPC AC 210607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DAB 20 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO MER 25 E BIH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 40 ENE GJT 30 E RTN 45 ENE GAG 40 NW HOT 30 SSE UOX 15 WNW AND 45 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 25 SSE FST 35 NW HOB 60 N ROW 35 N 4CR 35 ENE TCS 45 SE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING SWD OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET BOWING BACK NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...POLAR VORTEX WILL SINK SWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THIS NRN STREAM FEATURE AND THE SRN STREAM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES. WWD EXTENT OF THIS FRONT...AND AN OLD WARM FRONT...WILL MEANDER ACROSS CNTRL/NWRN TX THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES SWD INTO TX AND THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...SRN CA TO SCNTRL AZ... WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA UPPER LOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS AZ EARLY TUESDAY AND PROBABLY STALL VCNTY NM BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING. DEEP UVV ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT H5 JET WRAPPING NEWD FROM BAJA/SONORA AND STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP TSTM PROBABILITIES HIGH. KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVEYOR IN THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS WHERE POSSIBLE HEATING WILL AUGMENT THERMAL BUOYANCY. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS THROUGH 8KM SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.. ESPECIALLY IF HEATING CAN OCCUR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...DETAILS /MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/ ARE IN QUESTION. ONCE THESE DETAILS ARE RESOLVED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED. FARTHER W...CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /MINUS 25C H5 TEMPERATURES/ WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FARTHER S AND EAST. BUT...GIVEN A COLD PROFILE...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS COULD GIVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR EVEN A WATERSPOUT/ISOLD TORNADO. ...CNTRL/W TX... LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL GRADUALLY TURN UPSLOPE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX AS THE CA SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE W TX S PLAINS AND SERN NM BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HEATING SHOULD BE STRONGEST ALONG/WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL CONVECTION/CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC... GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE/HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCNTRL TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EWD ALONG A FRONT INTO CNTRL TX. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE OR IF TSTMS WILL INDEED DEVELOP. AS SUCH...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE CONDITIONAL LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 17:42:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 12:42:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502211745.j1LHjLoj005261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211739 SWODY2 SPC AC 211738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 25 S SAT 55 NE DRT 35 WSW SJT 45 NNE BGS 25 ESE PVW 40 W CDS 40 SE CDS 40 NNW MWL 15 ESE DAL 10 ENE GGG 40 SW MLU 35 SW JAN 25 ENE LUL 35 S SEM 15 S TOI 30 WSW DHN 30 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 25 SSE FST 35 NW HOB 60 N ROW 35 N 4CR 35 ENE TCS 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 35 NW SFO MER 25 E BIH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 40 ENE GJT 30 E RTN 45 ENE GAG 40 NW HOT 30 SSE UOX 15 WNW AND 45 ESE ECG ...CONT... 35 N DAB 20 SW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE...SITUATED BENEATH FAST MID LEVEL FLOW...SINKS GRADUALLY SWD INTO INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM NRN TX/TXK AREA ESEWD TO THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER WEST...DEEP UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED STRONGLY DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SRN CA AND THE LWR CO RIVER VLY. ...NERN TX ACROSS NRN GULF COAST... MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING SWD TOWARD N TX AND THE TXK AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP RETURNING GULF AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION... AND PRESENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WITHIN FAST SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM...MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING A SMALL ELEVATED MCS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF SEP-DFW LINE. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN UNDERGO UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AID OF UPPER DYNAMICS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...AND FORCING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SHV TO LWR MS VALLEY...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS TAPPED ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP WLY FLOW WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE WITH WIND AND HAIL MOVING FROM LA ACROSS SRN MS/AL THROUGH EVENING. ...WCNTRL/CNTRL TX... IN THE WAKE OF EARLY ELEVATED AND ISOLD STORMS MENTIONED ABOVE...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WCNTRL TX WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH UPR 50S TO LWR 60S F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS SUBTLE WITH REGION GENERALLY BENEATH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DISTURBANCES WITHIN SUB-TROPICAL JET...COUPLED WITH ELIMINATION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD AID SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...TOPPED BY 35-40KT WLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ...SRN CA/AZ... COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA AND THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. NUMEROUS IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL AID STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E USUALLY LEAD TO LIMITED CAPE. HOWEVER...REGION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 06:32:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 01:32:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502220635.j1M6ZqK3014353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220633 SWODY2 SPC AC 220632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 35 SSE ROW 40 NNE ALM 35 W ALM 30 WSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PRB 20 S MER 30 ENE MER 20 SSE BIH 55 SSE TPH 50 N P38 40 ENE PUC 15 SW ASE 20 NNW LHX 35 SW GCK 35 ESE DDC 30 NNE END 40 E OKC 30 SE HOT 15 NNE AUO 30 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-WEEK UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER LOW OFF CA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SERN STATES BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VLY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND TX. ...SRN CA TO SCNTRL AZ... MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY EARLY WED TO SRN AZ BY AFTERNOON. A 50-55 KT CYCLONIC JET WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT PLACE MUCH OF SRN AZ IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL PASS EWD...WITH SOME DEGREE OF INSOLATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS. GIVEN MINUS 25C AT H5 AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 8 KM WILL EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL AZ AND IF HEATING CAN BE REALIZED...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED SCNTRL AZ VLYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAN REMAINED BACKED. WHEN DETAILS OF THE UPPER LOW TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY CAN BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS...A SLGT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED. TO THE WEST...COLD CORE ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THAT MAY YIELD HAIL ACROSS SRN CA. ...SW/SCNTRL TX... ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WCNTRL TX ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN/ERN TX. COLD POOL GENERATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE A COMPOSITE FRONT SWD INTO SW/SCNTRL TX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT TO SW/SCNTRL TX. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF SUBTROPICAL CLOUD DEBRIS...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE VCNTY BOUNDARIES/FRONT AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON. 30-40 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CINH WILL BE HARD TO ERASE FARTHER S ACROSS DEEP S TX WHERE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL EXIST. ...ERN GULF COAST... IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS TO ORGANIZE INTO LEWPS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON MAGNITUDE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GIVEN THE FLAT H5 FLOW AND WILL PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 04:45:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:45:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502230610.j1N6AhLk016809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230608 SWODY2 SPC AC 230606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OXR DAG 50 WSW SGU 50 NE FLG 30 WSW GNT 35 W GDP 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 N SAT 35 NNW LFT 25 S SEM 10 ESE AUO 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLB 10 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO OVERALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH DEEP S TX. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL GULF...THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL OR SRN GA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...DEEP S TX... SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY DEEP S TX BY 18Z THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING SEWD INTO MEXICO/GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THEY INDEED FORM...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT... ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO CARRY SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES NEWD FROM MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/CAP...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ...SERN STATES... THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH GFS A LITTLE FARTHER S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL /6.5 C/KM/...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...TSTM CLUSTERS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...BOW AND GIVE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE. UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...SWRN STATES... GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THURSDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HAVE RELAXED BY THURSDAY AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT...THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM. ..RACY.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 04:54:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502230619.j1N6JKCq021452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230617 SWODY2 SPC AC 230616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OXR DAG 50 WSW SGU 50 NE FLG 30 WSW GNT 35 W GDP 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 N SAT 35 NNW LFT 25 S SEM 10 ESE AUO 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLB 10 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO OVERALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH DEEP S TX. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL GULF...THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL OR SRN GA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...DEEP S TX... SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY DEEP S TX BY 18Z THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING SEWD INTO MEXICO/GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THEY INDEED FORM...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT... ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO CARRY SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES NEWD FROM MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/CAP...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ...SERN STATES... THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH GFS A LITTLE FARTHER S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL /6.5 C/KM/...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...TSTM CLUSTERS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...BOW AND GIVE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE. UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...SWRN STATES... GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THURSDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HAVE RELAXED BY THURSDAY AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT...THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM. ..RACY.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 16:17:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 11:17:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502231742.j1NHgYh9028112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231740 SWODY2 SPC AC 231739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO 45 SSE UKI 30 ESE UKI 20 NNE SAC 50 S TVL 40 WNW BIH 15 ESE BIH 60 S TPH 35 W SGU 20 SSE PGA 65 WNW GUP 25 N GNT 25 N 4CR 25 S HOB 20 SE BGS 20 WNW SEP 25 SW TYR 45 N POE 25 SW JAN 25 SE MEI 15 SW SEM 20 NNE MGM 15 NW ATL 45 W CAE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY DEGRADING HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK ENCOMPASSING THE WEST...A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST... AND A MODERATELY FAST AND ACTIVE SRN STREAM FROM MEXICO...ACROSS SRN TX...TO NRN FL. A DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PRIMARILY ZONAL SRN JET STREAM FROM TX EWD ACROSS LA TO GA/FL. LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL PROMOTE EPISODES OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. TSTM OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WNWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ACT TO NUDGE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NWRN/NRN GULF...AND SOUTH INTO NRN FL. ...SERN TX TO LA... NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE DEEP SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER CA/NRN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER TX LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THIS NEXT MCS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ATOP COLD AND STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF LA. HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD TO THE MID/LWR TX GULF COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN TX. HOWEVER... THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ACTIVITY GENERATED IN MCS OUTFLOW/FRONTAL SURGE COULD ORGANIZE AND RESULT IN A WIND/TORNADO HAZARD. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY STREAMING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD FUEL STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO LA WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FURTHER COMPLICATIONS TRYING TO ANTICIPATE MCS FORMATION AND LOCATION...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF THE TX GULF COAST...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN LA...MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS OVERALL SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER. ...SOUTHEAST/NRN FL... WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD DETER ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM GA WWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN WEAK CAP AND MODEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING COULD ATTAIN GREATER ORGANIZATION AND POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...AZ... A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY BENEATH REMAINS OF COLD CORE LOW MOVING ACROSS AZ. LOW CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 04:45:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 23:45:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502240610.j1O6AbdG015143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240608 SWODY2 SPC AC 240606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 25 E JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW VBG 45 E MRY 50 N FAT 55 ESE BIH 35 SW SGU 60 E GCN 25 NNW SOW 40 NNE TUS 55 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CNTRL FL EARLY FRIDAY INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOISTEN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS...MINIMAL HEATING IS EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MEAGER INSTABILITY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL/SRN FL BY FRIDAY NIGHT....BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS...DESPITE 40-50 KTS OF H5 FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...REMNANT UPPER LOW/COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE DESERT SW ON FRIDAY. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA INTO AZ. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...RELATIVELY COLD TROPOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 15:57:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 10:57:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502241722.j1OHMDvc010744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241720 SWODY2 SPC AC 241719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 25 E JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW VBG 45 E MRY 50 N FAT 60 WNW DRA 15 NNW SGU 70 N INW 35 SSW GUP 35 E SAD 45 WSW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS WRN CANADA AND WA/NRN ID. CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SRN PART OF THE BLOCK IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO FL...WITH ERN TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. ...FL... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD FROM CENTRAL TO SRN FL ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA EWD INTO AZ. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM SRN CA TO SRN AZ...WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. A FEW HAIL REPORTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 05:40:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 00:40:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502250705.j1P75m8k000462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250659 SWODY2 SPC AC 250658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 35 WSW MER 40 WSW RBL 50 E ACV 15 WSW MHS 45 SE MHS 40 S TVL 70 NW BIH 55 NW TPH 15 SSE ENV 55 W VEL 45 SSW LAR 25 NNE AKO 30 WSW LBF 30 SSE EAR 35 SSE DDC 30 E DHT 10 ENE CVS 30 ESE CNM 20 SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 WNW LRD 40 SSE SAT 40 NE LCH 25 WNW MSY 20 NNW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN ROCKIES. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. FURTHER S...SEVERAL FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF REGION IN SWLY MID-LEVEL JET SE OF UPPER LOW. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY / ARKLATEX REGION. THOUGH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF / S OF FL BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW WRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THOUGH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT COASTAL TX THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT IN EITHER OF THESE AREAS...AND COOL / STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL FURTHER N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 16:12:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:12:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502251737.j1PHbNJf002816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251735 SWODY2 SPC AC 251734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 45 SE SAT 30 SSE LFK 15 WNW BTR 20 NNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 15 W BLH 55 NNW NID 65 NW BIH 25 ESE U31 10 SE ENV 45 ENE VEL 20 NE FCL 15 NE AKO 40 ESE TAD 40 SW CVS 35 SW HOB 30 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REX BLOCK OVER THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS THE BROAD SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RETROGRADES WWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW AND CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL TRACK FROM NWRN MEXICO TO THE UPPER TX COAST/ARKLATEX REGION ON SATURDAY. ...COASTAL TX TO LA... SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL KEYS EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SWRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EARLY SATURDAY OVER NERN MEXICO /TO THE S OF BRO/...WITH THIS LOW TRACKING NEWD ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD SWRN LA BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GULF. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER DEEP S TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE LA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS. ..PETERS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 05:42:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 00:42:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502260707.j1Q77f5e006245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260704 SWODY2 SPC AC 260703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE GPT 15 NNE GPT 30 NNW CEW 10 ENE AYS 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW DMN 50 NNW TUS 40 SE PRC 30 W ABQ 15 N LVS 25 ENE TCC 15 SE GAG 25 SSW END 15 NE LFK 15 ESE ESF 15 E GWO 30 N HSV 30 NNW TYS AHN 40 ESE CLT 35 NNW RWI 40 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GLS 40 S CLL 25 ESE FST 45 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EUG 45 SSW MFR 65 SE RBL 20 NNW SCK 25 NW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST / FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE A MERGING / INTERACTION OF WRN U.S. LOW / TROUGH AND STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES SHOULD INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS / MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD...AS WRN FEATURES MOVE E AND NRN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SSEWD. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD...WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE E COAST. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARILY WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. NAM FORECASTS A LOW INITIALLY OVER SWRN LA...WHICH THEN DEEPENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD WITH TIME WHILE REMAINING W OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GFS PLACES A WEAKER LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF INITIALLY...AND THEN MOVES IT ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND THEN UP THE SERN U.S. / CAROLINA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS DIFFERENT YET...WITH LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SERN GULF...ACROSS SRN FL BY SUNSET...AND THEN WELL OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ATTM...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WIDESPREAD / WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIST E / NE OF THIS LOW...KEEPING EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN GULF OR PERHAPS JUST ONSHORE. IN THIS SCENARIO...LOW WOULD LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NRN FL...AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE SOUTHEAST... BASED ON ABOVE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW...MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS FL...BENEATH BROAD ZONE OF 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST WITH WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS FL / INTO THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH / OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SECOND EPISODE OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG COLD FRONT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS FL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND LIKELIHOOD OF 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING ACROSS FL / THE GULF COAST REGION SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL DEPICTION OF SURFACE / BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS REGION. ...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX... MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS A DIURNALLY HEATED BUT MARGINALLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ENHANCED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ..GOSS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 16:28:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 11:28:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502261753.j1QHrls9009402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261751 SWODY2 SPC AC 261749 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 10 NNW TLH 55 NW AYS 40 SE CAE 20 SW FAY 20 NW OAJ 30 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ONP 45 NNW MFR 10 S MHS 40 NNE MER 30 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 10 N HDO 30 NE P07 50 SE ELP ...CONT... 45 SW DMN 50 NNW TUS 40 SE PRC 30 W ABQ 15 N LVS 25 ENE TCC 25 WSW GCK 50 NNW P28 40 NW TYR 10 NNE ESF 15 ENE GWO 45 NNW HSV 30 NNW TYS 20 NW AND 10 N CLT 25 ESE DAN 30 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL INTO SERN GA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE WRN STATES AND NRN STREAM COMBINED WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX TODAY WILL INTERACT TO SUPPORT TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE EPISODES ON DAY 2.../1/ ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND /2/ ACROSS SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PHASE/INTERACT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES AND A RIDGE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE WEST...AS A PAC TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA TO THE PAC NW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN WAS FORECAST WITH THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SERN STATES... AIR MASS ACROSS FL INTO THE FAR SERN STATES WILL MODIFY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD OVER FL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN FL. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA BY 00Z...AIDING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF A SWLY LLJ TO 30-40 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FL. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES STRONGER DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. 55-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE INCREASING LLJ WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. MODELS SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS FL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS RESULTING IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...VERIFYING WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA TO NC. ...SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN CA/NWRN NV...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES ACROSS NWRN TX BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TOWARD THE TX COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ SURFACE LOW AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ALSO MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IN RELATION TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS HAIL THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD DURING THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY REACH THE TX COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. ..PETERS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 05:13:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 00:13:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502270638.j1R6ce3Y028854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270637 SWODY2 SPC AC 270636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FMY 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 30 E FAY 40 NNW RWI 35 ESE RIC 15 W DOV EWR 20 NNW BID 15 E HYA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN / MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE LOW / FRONTAL POSITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM STILL THE FURTHEST W WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE HOW LONG -- IF AT ALL -- THE FRONT REMAINS ONSHORE OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND WHETHER ANY WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS CAN SNEAK ONSHORE OVER COASTAL NC JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN THE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER SRN FL...BUT CONFINE IT TO EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED...THE NAM IS FURTHEST N WITH ITS FRONTAL POSITION -- AND THUS SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FORM OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS AS WELL AS NCEP SREF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY / CONDITIONAL SEVERE FORECAST ACROSS THE EVERGLADES / SRN FL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY / CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS FAR SERN VA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME ERN NC / THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN...MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF LOW CENTER. CONCENSUS FORECAST WOULD PLACE THE LOW ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OR JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AT 28/12Z...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARM SECTOR FROM WORKING ONSHORE. IN THE EVENT THAT LOW WERE FURTHER INLAND...MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS / INTO COASTAL AREAS OF NC / SERN VA. IN THIS SCENARIO...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY INTRODUCTION OF 5% PROBABILITY. ..GOSS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 16:18:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 11:18:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502271743.j1RHh7va017767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271740 SWODY2 SPC AC 271739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 35 N FLO 25 N SOP 35 ESE RIC 15 W DOV EWR 20 NNW BID 15 E HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FMY 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BLI 20 NNE EAT 45 SSW GEG 30 E BOI 40 NW OWY 65 WSW BNO 15 ESE MFR 60 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AMPLIFIES SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY TO SERN STATES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM ERN NC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON DAY 2. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE WWD TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THUS...TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF OVER SRN FL AT 28/12Z. SPLIT FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES GIVEN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF WRN NORTH AMERICA. ...SRN FL... AIR MASS OVER SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SSEWD MONDAY MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW /40 KT AT 850 MB AND 50 KT AT 700 MB/. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A CATEGORICAL RISK...WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ...PAC NW... SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO THE RIDGE...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST BY 01/12Z. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-26 C AT 500 MB/ WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PAC NW ON MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER THIS REGION AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT SPREADS NEWD. ..PETERS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 05:56:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 00:56:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502280721.j1S7LaV0022329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280719 SWODY2 SPC AC 280718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MLU ESF 10 SW LFK 30 E TPL 40 E ABI 55 SE CDS 45 WSW END 35 SSW PNC MKO 25 NNE TXK 20 SW MLU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH / LOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO LINGER OVER / INVOF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL / STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AFFECT THE PAC NW LATE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE...MAIN THUNDER THREAT IS EXPECTED IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS... THOUGH LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF LARGE ERN U.S. SURFACE CYCLONE...PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INDUCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- EFFECTIVELY BISECTING SURFACE RIDGE. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE ERN PLAINS...RESULTING GRADIENT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX / OK. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY...WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING -- WITHIN APPROXIMATELY THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER. THIS MOISTENING -- BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL / PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL / N TX INTO OK. BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND PERHAPS INTO N TX...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD EXIST ALONG WITH HAIL -- GIVEN INVERTED-V TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE AND MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO HOWEVER WILL BE THAT STORMS DEVELOP FROM N TX NWD IN AN ELEVATED LAYER ABOVE PERSISTENTLY COOL / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER -- PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR / ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINATION FOR HAIL...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW / CONDITIONAL HAIL PROBABILITY ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION WHICH MAY OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 15:54:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 10:54:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502281719.j1SHJD3k018897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281716 SWODY2 SPC AC 281715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LFK 40 ESE ACT 25 WSW SEP 50 NNW ABI 20 SE CDS 25 NNW LTS 10 S OKC 50 NW MLC 10 W PGO 40 N TXK 35 WNW ELD 50 ESE SHV 50 NNW POE 30 WNW LFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION PROCESS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH AN EXTENSIVE BELT OF DEEP LAYER NWLY/WLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GULF. FAST STJ WILL PERSIST FROM BAJA TO FL WITH AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS STREAM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC TO NRN MEXICO. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE SITUATED ON EITHER SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE WESTERNMOST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER WA/ORE...WHILE THE OTHER IMPULSE DROPS SEWD ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS... FROM CO TO THE SRN PLAINS. ...NERN TX/SRN OK... WHILE MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND GENERALLY STABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...WEAK RETURN OF LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FCST ACROSS SCNTRL TX ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINTAINED BY WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...AND FAST SRN STREAM...WILL MAINTAIN ZONE OF DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS TX AND THE NWRN GULF COAST. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AIR PARCELS ORIGINATING IN THE MOIST AXIS ATTAINING AN LFC ABOVE 850MB ACROSS NRN/NERN TX. WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STRONG TSTMS IS POSSIBLE. ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 05:11:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 00:11:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502010514.j115EI1D023454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010511 SWODY2 SPC AC 010509 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LCH 20 WNW JAN 30 ENE CBM 15 SW RMG 25 SSE AND 25 SSE CAE 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE JAX 50 SSE CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GULF STATES TO SC... UPSTREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL AID NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SFC LOW ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. RESULTANT MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE DEEP CONVECTION INTERCEPTS WHAT LITTLE BUOYANCY IS AVAILABLE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS ISOLATED...MAINLY ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...EWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 17:14:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 12:14:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502011717.j11HHigU005993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011715 SWODY2 SPC AC 011714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 10 NNW MCB 35 W MEI 30 W TCL 25 NW BHM 15 NE GAD 25 S RMG 25 SSE ATL 20 S MCN 45 NE MGR 35 S VLD 25 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVE TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE BAJA NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO/GULF OF CA...WHILE AN EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE NCNTRL GULF COAST. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH... SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SERN LA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY NEAR SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WHERE WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM INLAND ATOP COOL/STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DECREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SURFACE LOW AND WARM SECTOR WILL MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST GFS AND NCEP-SREF MEAN MASS FIELDS. THEREFORE... WHILE A COUPLE OF STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM THE MS DELTA EAST TO THE WRN FL PNHDL...BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL POSE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING FORCING. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 05:45:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502020548.j125mNUB026168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020547 SWODY2 SPC AC 020546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 55 ENE ABY 45 WSW AGS 15 ESE AND 15 WSW CLT 30 W SOP 15 NE ILM ...CONT... 30 N PBI 30 SSE SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD TO NEAR THE SC COAST BY 04/12Z. DEEP WLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF BOTH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WRN ATLANTIC WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. POOR INSTABILITY INLAND WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT SFC-BASED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG WIND SHIFT...WHEREAS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE ROOTED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 850MB AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. ..DARROW.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 17:07:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 12:07:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502021709.j12H9wK8010497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021707 SWODY2 SPC AC 021706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 10 SW PIE ...CONT... PFN 35 SE MCN 40 SE AHN 15 SW GSP 25 NNE CLT 25 W RDU 40 SE EWN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SOME PHASING BETWEEN NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL...A NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL STRENGTHEN BENEATH THE NOSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A WELL-FORMED CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA...AND ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. ...SOUTHEAST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY FROM GA INTO SC...WITHIN ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE AIRMASS. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INTENSIFIES ACROSS SC. GIVEN ANTECEDENT COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITHIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER ERN SC SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...WHILE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NRN FL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEST AND EAST OF THE PENINSULA. INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ..CARBIN.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 06:26:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 01:26:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502030629.j136TTrX026479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030626 SWODY2 SPC AC 030625 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 ESE SEA 10 SW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE JET MAX WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITHIN STRONGER/DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NWRN MEXICO AS SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO FAR WEST TX LATE. IT APPEARS THE LOW LATITUDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AZ...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ..DARROW.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 17:02:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 12:02:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502031704.j13H4hLB015216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031702 SWODY2 SPC AC 031701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 ESE SEA 10 SW AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS... PRIMARILY WEST OF THE WA CASCADES. ...DESERT SW... CNTRL BAJA CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD INTO SONORA LATE FRIDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WRAPPING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD TOWARD SRN AZ/NM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RESULTANT SHOWERS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THOUGH ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 05:51:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:51:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502040556.j145u0LZ021138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040551 SWODY2 SPC AC 040550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU TUS 10 SE INW DRO ALS 40 W RTN 25 W LVS 4CR ALM GDP FST 20 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STABLY STRATIFIED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE U.S...AND MODELS INDICATE LITTLE MODIFICATION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO CLOSED LOW...NOW WEST OF BAJA...IS PROGGED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REACH SONORA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWER-LEVELS...HOWEVER...ARE INITIALLY DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD...WITH SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUS...ANY MOISTENING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO EVAPORATION FROM PRECIPITATION ALOFT...AND THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STABLE STRATIFICATION AND PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES APPEAR TO EXIST SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS TOWARD FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AREA SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF INTO TEXAS WILL OCCUR...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL STRONGER UPPER FORCING HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD CAP RETURNING MOISTURE. ..KERR.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 16:17:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 11:17:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502041619.j14GJigr018579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041617 SWODY2 SPC AC 041616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU TUS 10 SE INW DRO ALS 40 W RTN 25 W LVS 4CR ALM GDP FST 20 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... BAJA UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT ENEWD INTO THE SWRN STATES ON SATURDAY. COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE HEATING IN WAKE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SERN AZ INTO NM. THERMAL BUOYANCY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA WHERE MOST UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LOCATED. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD FAR W TX LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE THEY CROSS THE RIO GRANDE. ...SRN PLAINS... A COUPLE OF ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL/N TX SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING IMPULSE. MUCAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN SUB-10 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 05:49:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 00:49:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502050551.j155pxE2007836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050550 SWODY2 SPC AC 050548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 45 SSE CLL GGG FSM UMN VIH 35 SSW BLV 10 SE CGI 10 SSE DYR 15 SW HEZ 30 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N BLI 50 ENE SEA YKM 45 SSW BOI SLC VEL GJT 10 SSE U17 P38 15 W LOL MFR 25 NNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE BAJA VICINITY. REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE PROGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND SHEARING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD...AS ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD BASE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FOUR CORNERS... DESPITE LINGERING COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGIN OF DIGGING CYCLONIC JET. THIS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS FORCING DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. ...WESTERN GULF COAST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST WEAKENS. BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS SUGGEST TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OZARK PLATEAU...JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND FORCING ALONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...NEAR SATURATED MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...FROM PRIOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME...WILL ONLY SUPPORT VERY WEAK CAPE. EVEN RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LOW UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WHEN UPPER FORCING WITH HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHENING. ..KERR.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 17:11:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:11:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502051713.j15HDh5C029916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051710 SWODY2 SPC AC 051709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N BLI 50 ENE SEA YKM 45 SSW BOI SLC VEL GJT 10 SSE U17 P38 15 W LOL MFR 25 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP 55 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 20 NE HDO 40 S FTW 15 NNE ADM 35 SW TUL VIH 50 N POF 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW GLH 20 NE POE 20 SE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW-GREAT BASIN... UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A LOW SUNDAY AND DROP SEWD INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY MONDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG/NORTH OF CYCLONIC JET AXIS WILL SPREAD SEWD DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SPORADIC TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS THE WASATCH. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG/WEST OF THE WA/ORE CASCADES. ...SRN PLAINS-OZARKS... MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE EJECTING BAJA TROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO OK/AR AND SRN MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MINIMAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIMIT THREATS FOR A WIDESPREAD TSTM THREAT. RATHER...ISOLD LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL THEN INCREASE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN TX. ..RACY.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 16:16:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 11:16:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502061618.j16GIpZx011267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061615 SWODY2 SPC AC 061614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ENV 35 WSW OGD 20 ESE EVW 55 W CAG 25 WNW MTJ 35 NNE 4BL 25 NNW U17 55 WNW MLF 15 ESE ENV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PSX 45 WNW VCT AUS TPL 45 ENE DAL 15 SSE PGO HRO 55 E VIH 10 WSW EVV 30 SSW HSV 40 E MEI 25 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-SOUTH... MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO AT MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF RAIN/ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD OR VIGOROUS TSTMS. IMPULSE NEARING SAN DIEGO ATTM WILL TURN EWD AND REACH THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN GRADUALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. WEAK RETURN OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BENEATH THESE LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THERMAL BUOYANCY DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE FIVE PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILISTIC THREAT. ...ERN GREAT BASIN... UPPER LOW VCNTY WA COAST WILL DROP SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COMBO OF OROGRAPHICS...WEAK BUOYANCY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN REGION...PRIMARILY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..RACY.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 05:55:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 00:55:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502120558.j1C5wA63006520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120555 SWODY2 SPC AC 120554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 55 E CLL 30 NNW GGG 25 ENE PGO 30 NE FYV 20 ESE SGF 20 SE TBN 55 NNW POF 20 SSW CGI 10 SSE DYR 10 NNE UOX 35 NNE JAN 20 E MCB 30 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFE 50 SW ALI 45 NW NIR 15 ENE AUS 50 NE ACT 25 ESE DUA 15 SSW MKO 40 ENE BVO 45 SSW OJC 35 E MKC 30 SSW IRK 40 ENE UIN 10 S BMI 10 SW LAF MIE 25 SE DAY 30 NNW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 25 ENE HSS 25 W AND 40 NNW MCN 15 SW ABY 25 S TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CA HAS BEGUN ADVANCING EWD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO MO BY NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH OK AND NW TX WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM SWRN MO INTO WRN AR AND ERN TX. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX LATER TODAY AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF AR AND SRN MO WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE TX AND LA COASTS. DESPITE THE MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -18C AT 6 KM ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SET THE STATE FOR DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN TX INTO PARTS OF SRN MO...AR AND LA. AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN DRY SLOT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 900 TO 1200 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN MO INTO AR...LA AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO PARTS OF SERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SERN U.S.... AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PERSIST INTO THE SERN STATES MUCH OF SUNDAY. THOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HEATING WILL RESULT IN MEAGER INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..DIAL.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 17:32:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 12:32:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502121736.j1CHa7ux026938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121734 SWODY2 SPC AC 121733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 10 W CLL 35 SW TXK 50 SSW HRO 35 NW POF 25 S CGI 35 ENE DYR 40 SW CBM 45 SW LUL 30 SSW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MFE 45 SW ALI 45 NW NIR 15 ENE AUS 25 ESE DUA 40 ENE BVO 15 WSW SZL 35 SE BRL 25 WSW JXN 40 ESE DTW 10 NE EKN 15 WNW AND 35 E MCN 35 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS -- WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY / ERN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER KS / OK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME / MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS E TX / THE OZARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE LOWER OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS AND TX GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO RETREAT EWD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING SLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS PERIOD. AREA OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING SHOULD BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AR / LA / SE TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX / LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY ELEVATED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN LA DURING THE DAY MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES. WITH STRONG / WEAKLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY -- AND EWD TOWARD SRN MS / SRN AL LATER IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / COOLING ALOFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD E TX / AR BEHIND INITIAL PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/ TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FORECAST...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WOULD LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND ERN AR SWWD ACROSS NWRN LA INTO PARTS OF E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THREAT TO DECREASE...LIMITED THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- MAY PERSIST EWD INTO MS WRN TN INTO THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 05:54:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 00:54:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502130558.j1D5w5Qe001355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130555 SWODY2 SPC AC 130554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ESE GPT 60 NNE MOB 20 SSE 0A8 30 ESE BHM 25 NE ANB 35 N ATL 15 WSW AHN 30 WSW AGS 35 SSE AGS 35 W CHS 25 NNE CHS 30 N CRE 15 NW OAJ 35 N EWN 15 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN U.S. MONDAY AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM VORT MAX AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CONSOLIDATE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP AS SRN STREAM VORT MAX APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD VEER AND WEAKEN MONDAY AS PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS TOWARD THE NERN U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT NEWD ADVECTION OF MODIFYING GULF AIR AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION INTO GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF AL AND GA EARLY MONDAY. INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM SRN AL...SWRN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTING INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM. ..DIAL.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 17:13:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 12:13:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502131716.j1DHGxTK021402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131714 SWODY2 SPC AC 131713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 15 WNW BTR 40 WNW JAN 10 SW UOX 40 WNW MSL 55 WNW CHA 45 NNE ATL 35 SSE AND 20 WSW FLO 30 ESE FAY 35 N EWN 35 SE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY FORECAST ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL DEAMPLIFY / MOVE EWD THIS PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE. AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS LIKEWISE FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AS PRIMARY LOW SHIFTS NNEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- AND THUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALONG REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MS / ERN LA EWD INTO NRN FL / GA / COASTAL CAROLINAS... DESPITE A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS PERIOD...ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. THIS AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...THUS LIMITING CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- ALBEIT QUITE LIMITED -- WOULD LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION...WHERE COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY-SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW A WEAK TORNADO SPIN-UP BENEATH A BRIEFLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT. LIKEWISE...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST COULD ALSO SUPPORT A SIMILAR THREAT FOR A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO. OVERALL HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN EVENT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW THUS NOT WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF ANY PROBABILITY LINES THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 05:41:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:41:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502140544.j1E5imBE007068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140542 SWODY2 SPC AC 140541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BKW 35 WSW BKW 45 SSE JKL 15 N CSV 20 ESE MKL 30 N MEM 10 NE ARG 60 NW POF 35 SSW STL 15 NNE SLO 15 NNW BMG 20 W DAY 10 NNE CMH 20 NE ZZV 35 SSW HLG 40 W EKN 30 NNE BKW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...OH THROUGH TN VALLEYS... SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM TX THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR OVER THE WRN GULF WILL YIELD LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THUS...DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 17:31:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 12:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502141734.j1EHY8w5014780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SSU 10 E TRI 45 SSW TYS 20 ENE HSV 10 NNE UOX 25 E LIT 55 NNW LIT 20 SW TBN 30 NNE VIH 30 SSW SPI 25 W DAY 30 NW CMH 10 SW CAK 10 ESE PIT 15 N EKN 10 WNW SSU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING REX BLOCK FROM THE GULF OF AK SWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL STATES. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL EXTEND TO THE ERN SEABOARD AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN STATES DE-AMPLIFIES AND MOVES ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SERN CANADA...AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS NOSE INTO SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO THE OK/KS BORDER WILL STRENGTHEN BY 16/00Z BENEATH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. ...SERN MO/NERN AR ENEWD ALONG OH/TN VALLEYS... ALTHOUGH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS REGION...LIMITED RETURN OF MODIFIED WRN GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE AVAILABLE SBCAPE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN MO/LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSLATING NEWD SHOULD AID IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTMS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STRONG...DEEP UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING TREND FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF WSW-ENE BANDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SWD. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 05:48:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 00:48:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502150551.j1F5pKHA030362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150549 SWODY2 SPC AC 150548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO 35 NW FLO 40 ESE CLT 35 SSW GSO 15 NE GSO 20 SE LYH 25 SE CHO 25 SSW DCA 15 SE BWI 30 NE DOV 10 E ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S EKA 45 WSW RBL 60 N SAC 40 SW TVL 30 E MER 50 S FAT 20 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES WITH A FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN U.S. SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE TODAY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF LATER TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACCOMPANYING THE DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW WILL BE LIMITED...WITH ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS NEAR AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. DESPITE THE LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. ETA MAY BE OVER FORECASTING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OVER ERN NC INTO PARTS OF ERN VA. HOWEVER...MLCAPE COULD RANGE FROM 300 TO 800 J/KG BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT INTERCEPTS AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. STRONG LARGELY SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...SO ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 05:32:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502160535.j1G5ZjHh019831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160534 SWODY2 SPC AC 160533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM W TX WWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM OFFSHORE UPPER LOW MOVE INLAND. OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 17:25:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 12:25:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502161728.j1GHSafN027971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161726 SWODY2 SPC AC 161725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 35 NW BFL 35 NNW NID 30 N LAS 10 WNW PGA 30 W FMN 35 S GNT 40 N SAD 70 NNW GBN 25 S BLH 15 SSW IPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH POLAR VORTEX PERSISTING OVER HUDSON BAY...A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...EXPANSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF COAST. ...SRN CA COAST INTO THE DESERT SW... SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ORIGINATING FROM THE BASE OF ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CA/BAJA CA INTO THE DESERT SW AND ADJACENT SRN ROCKIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE SRN SIERRAS EWD ACROSS THE MOGOLLON PLATEAU OWING TO RATHER STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM...WEAK OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND EPISODIC DEEPER-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE W. ..MEAD.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 05:56:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 00:56:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502170559.j1H5xWna027417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170557 SWODY2 SPC AC 170555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W UKI 35 NE SAC 45 NNE BIH 60 N DRA 45 E SGU 25 NNE FLG 40 ESE PHX 50 S GBN 65 SE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST SHOULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NEWD INTO CA AND THE SWRN STATES. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF NW-SE ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN CA WHERE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THREAT APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL...AND ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ...SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG AND S OF RETREATING DEFORMATION ZONE FROM TX NEWD INTO OK. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS MODIFYING GULF AIR ADVECTS NWD THROUGH TX UNDERNEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS INSTABILITY GENERALLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST. ..DIAL.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 17:26:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 12:26:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502171729.j1HHTNgd007607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171727 SWODY2 SPC AC 171726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W UKI 35 NE SAC 45 NNE BIH 30 SSE CDC 25 NNW DRO 10 W 4SL 80 NNW SVC 25 SSE SAD 20 SW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD LARGELY IN PART TO WEAKENING OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NEWD FROM BASE OF THIS LOW INTO THE DESERT SW WHILE STRONG NRN BRANCH FEATURE RETROGRADES SWWD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. FARTHER E... DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH FAST WNWLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SERN STATES WHILE LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. ...CA INTO THE SWRN DESERTS... WHILE ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA ON FRIDAY AND INTO AZ FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY STEEPER. ..MEAD.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 06:05:44 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 01:05:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502180608.j1I68qGt001308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180607 SWODY2 SPC AC 180605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 30 WNW FST 25 ESE ABI 35 NW MLC 35 SW CNU 25 SSW HLC 40 N GLD 45 N IML 30 NNE GRI 40 SW IRK 20 ENE MDH 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CBM 35 NW HEZ 45 W POE 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP 40 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CEC 45 N MER 30 ENE FAT 70 NNE NID 20 S 4HV 20 SSW GUC 20 NNE 4SL 30 E SOW 65 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPS SWD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM THE PACIFIC LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE DESERTS AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE 4-CORNERS EARLY SATURDAY AND TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A LEE-LOW OVER CO THAT WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN KS BY 12Z/20TH. FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS/PCPN OVER A WIDE SWATH OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. MINIMAL HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS LOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD PCPN BAND...HOWEVER. MORE LIKELY AREA FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM SRN NEB...NRN KS INTO PARTS OF MO AND AR WHERE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD. MOISTENING COLUMN AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. OTHER TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND PARTS OF CA WHERE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS COASTAL CA. ..RACY.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 17:22:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 12:22:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502181725.j1IHPmrW007245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181721 SWODY2 SPC AC 181720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CEC 45 N MER 30 ENE FAT 70 NNE NID 20 S 4HV 20 SSW GUC 20 NNE 4SL 30 E SOW 65 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 10 E INK 35 WNW ABI 35 NW MLC 35 SW CNU 25 SSW HLC 40 N GLD 45 N IML 30 NNW OMA 15 SW OTM 25 W MVN 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CBM 35 NW HEZ 45 W POE 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP 40 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A CONTINUED BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IN SEVERAL PIECES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 29N AND 124W/ WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RETROGRADE SWWD...FORMING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND CA COASTS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THIS LOW GENERALLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME FROM THIS LOW SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. ...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS... INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO SRN OK BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A PLUME OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7 -8 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD NRN EXTENT OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO LI/S OF -2 TO -3...MLCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG...AND ALSO A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM ERN TX INTO AR ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ANY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE UNLIKELY FARTHER W ACROSS MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS OWING TO GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN AN ARC FROM NRN KS/SRN NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG NOSE OF 50-60KT LLJ. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...CA TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION... RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET AXES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY WIDE CORRIDOR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD...WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MORE LOCALIZED ASCENT IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 06:30:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 01:30:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502190633.j1J6XXVD004828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190630 SWODY2 SPC AC 190629 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW HOT 50 NNE LIT 45 ENE PBF 45 S ELD 20 W LFK 25 NW CLL 40 NNW ACT 40 WSW PRX 45 NNW HOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT 55 NW MWL 25 SSW JLN 35 ENE SZL 40 NW LAF 15 ENE CMH 15 N BLF 30 NE RMG 15 E ESF 35 NNE VCT 55 NNE DRT 50 WSW SJT 40 N SJT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE DESERTS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE OH VLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE DESERTS/SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NERN KS EARLY SUNDAY TO CNTRL IND BY SUNDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO OK WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER OH VLY TO CNTRL TX. THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS. ...CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER OH VLY... LATEST OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS PENETRATED WELL S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUGGESTS THAT RETURN FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT BE OF HIGH QUALITY. MOREOVER... LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE SRN STREAM WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO A RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD...BUT WILL REINFORCE THE EML FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY. NAM/NAMKF SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO UNSTABLE...WITH THE GFS SCENARIO PREFERRED. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED FROM CNTRL TX-ARKLATEX-MID SOUTH/LOWER OH VLY WHERE MLCAPES WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TSTMS COULD INITIATE IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX TO THE ARKLATEX MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50-55 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH POSSIBLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MOVING INTO WRN/MID TN AND NWRN MS LATER AT NIGHT. FARTHER N...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY...PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN FARTHER SW...PRESENCE OF WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AOA 50 KTS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 17:28:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 12:28:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502191731.j1JHVfFG006125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191724 SWODY2 SPC AC 191723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE COU 20 E UIN 25 N CMI 15 SSE IND 20 E SDF 40 E BWG 55 SSW CKV 25 NNE MEM 50 SW ARG 30 WNW UNO 10 ESE COU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRA 45 S SLC 30 SSE CAG 45 W ALS 25 WNW ABQ 50 SSE PHX 20 WSW GBN 30 NNW EED 40 ENE DRA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 50 WSW FAT PMD 45 S RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT 50 ESE SPS 20 WNW JLN 25 NE BIE 20 N OMA RFD 20 NW SBN 15 ENE CMH 15 N BLF 30 NE RMG 15 E ESF 35 NNE VCT 55 NNE DRT 50 WSW SJT 40 N SJT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NRN UT AND SRN CA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE OVER THE PLAINS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...PRIOR TO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NERN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO NERN MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY NRN OH BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS. ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY... THOUGH MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS REMAINS CONFINED TO THE LOWER TX COAST AND DEEP S TX...INSPECTION OF 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWS RICHER MOISTURE BASED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AS FAR N AS FTW AND SHV. SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD SHOULD ENHANCE THE NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MO AND SRN IL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB AND RESULTANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /APPROACHING 8 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...EVEN DESPITE THE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGION ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 1 KM OR LESS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TSTMS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH SRN EXTENT. ...ARKLATEX... WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS REGION IS WHETHER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE FARTHER S. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM AREA. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ..MEAD.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 06:42:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 01:42:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502200645.j1K6jJAe031533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200643 SWODY2 SPC AC 200642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UKI 50 NNE MER 50 WNW NID 50 WSW EED 10 W PRC 25 ENE PHX 75 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SSI 15 WNW MAI 25 E BTR 35 WNW LFT 15 WNW HOU 55 SE AUS 40 E TPL 25 WSW TYR 40 WSW TXK 40 SE PGO 25 SE FYV 15 WSW HRO 35 ENE HRO 25 SSE CGI 40 ENE PAH 35 N SDF 30 WSW CMH 30 SSW HLG 20 S MGW 40 N SSU 10 SE SSU LYH 35 NNW RIC 15 ENE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER DROPS SWD SUNDAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES BREAKING OFF OF THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EWD. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE APPROACHING SRN CA EARLY SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD REACH THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TN VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE BRITISH COLUMBIA IMPULSE WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG UPPER LOW AND MOVE TO NEAR SRN CA BY LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPING NWD THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS AR SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A DRYLINE SWWD INTO ERN TX. ...LOWER MS VLY/MID-SOUTH... CONVECTION/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT 60S DEW POINTS NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC WITH H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID MINUS TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY/MID-SOUTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK WSWLY H85 FLOW...THERE COULD BE A PROPENSITY FOR EITHER THE ELEVATED MORNING ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD WWD TOWARD THE THETA-E AXIS...OR FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY BOUNDARIES. OVERALL THREAT IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEW CA SYSTEM. GIVEN TSTMS...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE UNIDIRECTIONALITY OF THE FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS THAT TSTM CLUSTERS COULD DEVELOP SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS GIVING WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS BACKBUILD WWD WITH TIME. OVERALL UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK...BUT WILL INCLUDE A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PROBABILISTIC HAIL AND WIND. ...SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VLY... WAVES OF CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SRN CA AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLD HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A WATERSPOUT/TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 06:08:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 01:08:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502210610.j1L6AxxN016318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210608 SWODY2 SPC AC 210607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DAB 20 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO MER 25 E BIH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 40 ENE GJT 30 E RTN 45 ENE GAG 40 NW HOT 30 SSE UOX 15 WNW AND 45 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 25 SSE FST 35 NW HOB 60 N ROW 35 N 4CR 35 ENE TCS 45 SE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING SWD OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET BOWING BACK NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...POLAR VORTEX WILL SINK SWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THIS NRN STREAM FEATURE AND THE SRN STREAM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES. WWD EXTENT OF THIS FRONT...AND AN OLD WARM FRONT...WILL MEANDER ACROSS CNTRL/NWRN TX THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES SWD INTO TX AND THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...SRN CA TO SCNTRL AZ... WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA UPPER LOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS AZ EARLY TUESDAY AND PROBABLY STALL VCNTY NM BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING. DEEP UVV ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT H5 JET WRAPPING NEWD FROM BAJA/SONORA AND STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP TSTM PROBABILITIES HIGH. KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVEYOR IN THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS WHERE POSSIBLE HEATING WILL AUGMENT THERMAL BUOYANCY. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS THROUGH 8KM SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.. ESPECIALLY IF HEATING CAN OCCUR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...DETAILS /MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/ ARE IN QUESTION. ONCE THESE DETAILS ARE RESOLVED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED. FARTHER W...CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /MINUS 25C H5 TEMPERATURES/ WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FARTHER S AND EAST. BUT...GIVEN A COLD PROFILE...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS COULD GIVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR EVEN A WATERSPOUT/ISOLD TORNADO. ...CNTRL/W TX... LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL GRADUALLY TURN UPSLOPE ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX AS THE CA SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE W TX S PLAINS AND SERN NM BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HEATING SHOULD BE STRONGEST ALONG/WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL CONVECTION/CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC... GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE/HIGHER TERRAIN OF WCNTRL TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EWD ALONG A FRONT INTO CNTRL TX. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE OR IF TSTMS WILL INDEED DEVELOP. AS SUCH...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE CONDITIONAL LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 17:42:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 12:42:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502211745.j1LHjLoj005261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211739 SWODY2 SPC AC 211738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 25 S SAT 55 NE DRT 35 WSW SJT 45 NNE BGS 25 ESE PVW 40 W CDS 40 SE CDS 40 NNW MWL 15 ESE DAL 10 ENE GGG 40 SW MLU 35 SW JAN 25 ENE LUL 35 S SEM 15 S TOI 30 WSW DHN 30 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 25 SSE FST 35 NW HOB 60 N ROW 35 N 4CR 35 ENE TCS 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 35 NW SFO MER 25 E BIH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 40 ENE GJT 30 E RTN 45 ENE GAG 40 NW HOT 30 SSE UOX 15 WNW AND 45 ESE ECG ...CONT... 35 N DAB 20 SW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE...SITUATED BENEATH FAST MID LEVEL FLOW...SINKS GRADUALLY SWD INTO INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS FROM NRN TX/TXK AREA ESEWD TO THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER WEST...DEEP UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED STRONGLY DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SRN CA AND THE LWR CO RIVER VLY. ...NERN TX ACROSS NRN GULF COAST... MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING SWD TOWARD N TX AND THE TXK AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP RETURNING GULF AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION... AND PRESENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WITHIN FAST SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM...MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING A SMALL ELEVATED MCS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF SEP-DFW LINE. IF THIS SYSTEM CAN UNDERGO UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AID OF UPPER DYNAMICS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...AND FORCING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SHV TO LWR MS VALLEY...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS TAPPED ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP WLY FLOW WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE WITH WIND AND HAIL MOVING FROM LA ACROSS SRN MS/AL THROUGH EVENING. ...WCNTRL/CNTRL TX... IN THE WAKE OF EARLY ELEVATED AND ISOLD STORMS MENTIONED ABOVE...WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/WCNTRL TX WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH UPR 50S TO LWR 60S F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS SUBTLE WITH REGION GENERALLY BENEATH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DISTURBANCES WITHIN SUB-TROPICAL JET...COUPLED WITH ELIMINATION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD AID SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...TOPPED BY 35-40KT WLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS...SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ...SRN CA/AZ... COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA AND THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. NUMEROUS IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL AID STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE OVER THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E USUALLY LEAD TO LIMITED CAPE. HOWEVER...REGION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 06:32:59 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 01:32:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502220635.j1M6ZqK3014353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220633 SWODY2 SPC AC 220632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 35 SSE ROW 40 NNE ALM 35 W ALM 30 WSW ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PRB 20 S MER 30 ENE MER 20 SSE BIH 55 SSE TPH 50 N P38 40 ENE PUC 15 SW ASE 20 NNW LHX 35 SW GCK 35 ESE DDC 30 NNE END 40 E OKC 30 SE HOT 15 NNE AUO 30 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-WEEK UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER LOW OFF CA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SERN STATES BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VLY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND TX. ...SRN CA TO SCNTRL AZ... MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY EARLY WED TO SRN AZ BY AFTERNOON. A 50-55 KT CYCLONIC JET WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT PLACE MUCH OF SRN AZ IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL PASS EWD...WITH SOME DEGREE OF INSOLATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS. GIVEN MINUS 25C AT H5 AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 8 KM WILL EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL AZ AND IF HEATING CAN BE REALIZED...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED SCNTRL AZ VLYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAN REMAINED BACKED. WHEN DETAILS OF THE UPPER LOW TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY CAN BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS...A SLGT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED. TO THE WEST...COLD CORE ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THAT MAY YIELD HAIL ACROSS SRN CA. ...SW/SCNTRL TX... ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WCNTRL TX ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN/ERN TX. COLD POOL GENERATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE A COMPOSITE FRONT SWD INTO SW/SCNTRL TX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT TO SW/SCNTRL TX. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF SUBTROPICAL CLOUD DEBRIS...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE VCNTY BOUNDARIES/FRONT AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON. 30-40 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CINH WILL BE HARD TO ERASE FARTHER S ACROSS DEEP S TX WHERE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL EXIST. ...ERN GULF COAST... IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS TO ORGANIZE INTO LEWPS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON MAGNITUDE OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GIVEN THE FLAT H5 FLOW AND WILL PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK ATTM. ..RACY.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 04:45:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:45:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502230610.j1N6AhLk016809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230608 SWODY2 SPC AC 230606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OXR DAG 50 WSW SGU 50 NE FLG 30 WSW GNT 35 W GDP 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 N SAT 35 NNW LFT 25 S SEM 10 ESE AUO 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLB 10 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO OVERALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH DEEP S TX. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL GULF...THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL OR SRN GA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...DEEP S TX... SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY DEEP S TX BY 18Z THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING SEWD INTO MEXICO/GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THEY INDEED FORM...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT... ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO CARRY SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES NEWD FROM MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/CAP...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ...SERN STATES... THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH GFS A LITTLE FARTHER S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL /6.5 C/KM/...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...TSTM CLUSTERS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...BOW AND GIVE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE. UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...SWRN STATES... GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THURSDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HAVE RELAXED BY THURSDAY AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT...THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM. ..RACY.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 04:54:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502230619.j1N6JKCq021452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230617 SWODY2 SPC AC 230616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OXR DAG 50 WSW SGU 50 NE FLG 30 WSW GNT 35 W GDP 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 N SAT 35 NNW LFT 25 S SEM 10 ESE AUO 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLB 10 W PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO OVERALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH DEEP S TX. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL GULF...THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL OR SRN GA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...DEEP S TX... SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY DEEP S TX BY 18Z THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING SEWD INTO MEXICO/GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THEY INDEED FORM...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT... ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO CARRY SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES NEWD FROM MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN HAIL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/CAP...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ...SERN STATES... THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH GFS A LITTLE FARTHER S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL /6.5 C/KM/...BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...TSTM CLUSTERS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...BOW AND GIVE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE. UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...SWRN STATES... GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THURSDAY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HAVE RELAXED BY THURSDAY AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT...THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM. ..RACY.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 16:17:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 11:17:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502231742.j1NHgYh9028112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231740 SWODY2 SPC AC 231739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO 45 SSE UKI 30 ESE UKI 20 NNE SAC 50 S TVL 40 WNW BIH 15 ESE BIH 60 S TPH 35 W SGU 20 SSE PGA 65 WNW GUP 25 N GNT 25 N 4CR 25 S HOB 20 SE BGS 20 WNW SEP 25 SW TYR 45 N POE 25 SW JAN 25 SE MEI 15 SW SEM 20 NNE MGM 15 NW ATL 45 W CAE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY DEGRADING HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK ENCOMPASSING THE WEST...A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST... AND A MODERATELY FAST AND ACTIVE SRN STREAM FROM MEXICO...ACROSS SRN TX...TO NRN FL. A DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE PRIMARILY ZONAL SRN JET STREAM FROM TX EWD ACROSS LA TO GA/FL. LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL PROMOTE EPISODES OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. TSTM OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WNWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ACT TO NUDGE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NWRN/NRN GULF...AND SOUTH INTO NRN FL. ...SERN TX TO LA... NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE DEEP SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER CA/NRN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER TX LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THIS NEXT MCS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ATOP COLD AND STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF LA. HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD TO THE MID/LWR TX GULF COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN TX. HOWEVER... THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ACTIVITY GENERATED IN MCS OUTFLOW/FRONTAL SURGE COULD ORGANIZE AND RESULT IN A WIND/TORNADO HAZARD. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY STREAMING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD FUEL STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO LA WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FURTHER COMPLICATIONS TRYING TO ANTICIPATE MCS FORMATION AND LOCATION...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF THE TX GULF COAST...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN LA...MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS OVERALL SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER. ...SOUTHEAST/NRN FL... WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD DETER ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM GA WWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GIVEN WEAK CAP AND MODEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING COULD ATTAIN GREATER ORGANIZATION AND POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...AZ... A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY BENEATH REMAINS OF COLD CORE LOW MOVING ACROSS AZ. LOW CAPE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 04:45:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 23:45:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502240610.j1O6AbdG015143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240608 SWODY2 SPC AC 240606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 25 E JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW VBG 45 E MRY 50 N FAT 55 ESE BIH 35 SW SGU 60 E GCN 25 NNW SOW 40 NNE TUS 55 SW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND A REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CNTRL FL EARLY FRIDAY INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOISTEN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS...MINIMAL HEATING IS EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MEAGER INSTABILITY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL/SRN FL BY FRIDAY NIGHT....BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS...DESPITE 40-50 KTS OF H5 FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...REMNANT UPPER LOW/COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE DESERT SW ON FRIDAY. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CA INTO AZ. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...RELATIVELY COLD TROPOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 15:57:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 10:57:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502241722.j1OHMDvc010744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241720 SWODY2 SPC AC 241719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 25 E JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW VBG 45 E MRY 50 N FAT 60 WNW DRA 15 NNW SGU 70 N INW 35 SSW GUP 35 E SAD 45 WSW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS WRN CANADA AND WA/NRN ID. CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SRN PART OF THE BLOCK IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO FL...WITH ERN TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. ...FL... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD FROM CENTRAL TO SRN FL ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA EWD INTO AZ. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM SRN CA TO SRN AZ...WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A SMALL HAIL THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. A FEW HAIL REPORTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 05:40:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 00:40:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502250705.j1P75m8k000462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250659 SWODY2 SPC AC 250658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 35 WSW MER 40 WSW RBL 50 E ACV 15 WSW MHS 45 SE MHS 40 S TVL 70 NW BIH 55 NW TPH 15 SSE ENV 55 W VEL 45 SSW LAR 25 NNE AKO 30 WSW LBF 30 SSE EAR 35 SSE DDC 30 E DHT 10 ENE CVS 30 ESE CNM 20 SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 WNW LRD 40 SSE SAT 40 NE LCH 25 WNW MSY 20 NNW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN ROCKIES. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. FURTHER S...SEVERAL FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF REGION IN SWLY MID-LEVEL JET SE OF UPPER LOW. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY / ARKLATEX REGION. THOUGH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF / S OF FL BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW WRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THOUGH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT COASTAL TX THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT IN EITHER OF THESE AREAS...AND COOL / STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL FURTHER N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 16:12:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:12:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502251737.j1PHbNJf002816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251735 SWODY2 SPC AC 251734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 45 SE SAT 30 SSE LFK 15 WNW BTR 20 NNW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 15 W BLH 55 NNW NID 65 NW BIH 25 ESE U31 10 SE ENV 45 ENE VEL 20 NE FCL 15 NE AKO 40 ESE TAD 40 SW CVS 35 SW HOB 30 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REX BLOCK OVER THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS THE BROAD SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RETROGRADES WWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW AND CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL TRACK FROM NWRN MEXICO TO THE UPPER TX COAST/ARKLATEX REGION ON SATURDAY. ...COASTAL TX TO LA... SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL KEYS EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SWRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EARLY SATURDAY OVER NERN MEXICO /TO THE S OF BRO/...WITH THIS LOW TRACKING NEWD ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD SWRN LA BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GULF. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER DEEP S TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE LA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS. ..PETERS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 05:42:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 00:42:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502260707.j1Q77f5e006245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260704 SWODY2 SPC AC 260703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE GPT 15 NNE GPT 30 NNW CEW 10 ENE AYS 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW DMN 50 NNW TUS 40 SE PRC 30 W ABQ 15 N LVS 25 ENE TCC 15 SE GAG 25 SSW END 15 NE LFK 15 ESE ESF 15 E GWO 30 N HSV 30 NNW TYS AHN 40 ESE CLT 35 NNW RWI 40 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GLS 40 S CLL 25 ESE FST 45 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EUG 45 SSW MFR 65 SE RBL 20 NNW SCK 25 NW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST / FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE A MERGING / INTERACTION OF WRN U.S. LOW / TROUGH AND STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES SHOULD INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS / MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD...AS WRN FEATURES MOVE E AND NRN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SSEWD. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD...WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE E COAST. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARILY WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. NAM FORECASTS A LOW INITIALLY OVER SWRN LA...WHICH THEN DEEPENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD WITH TIME WHILE REMAINING W OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GFS PLACES A WEAKER LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF INITIALLY...AND THEN MOVES IT ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND THEN UP THE SERN U.S. / CAROLINA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS DIFFERENT YET...WITH LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SERN GULF...ACROSS SRN FL BY SUNSET...AND THEN WELL OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ATTM...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WIDESPREAD / WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIST E / NE OF THIS LOW...KEEPING EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN GULF OR PERHAPS JUST ONSHORE. IN THIS SCENARIO...LOW WOULD LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NRN FL...AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE SOUTHEAST... BASED ON ABOVE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW...MOIST / POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS FL...BENEATH BROAD ZONE OF 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST WITH WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS FL / INTO THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH / OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SECOND EPISODE OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG COLD FRONT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS FL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND LIKELIHOOD OF 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING ACROSS FL / THE GULF COAST REGION SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL DEPICTION OF SURFACE / BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS REGION. ...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX... MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS A DIURNALLY HEATED BUT MARGINALLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ENHANCED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ..GOSS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 16:28:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 11:28:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502261753.j1QHrls9009402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261751 SWODY2 SPC AC 261749 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 10 NNW TLH 55 NW AYS 40 SE CAE 20 SW FAY 20 NW OAJ 30 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ONP 45 NNW MFR 10 S MHS 40 NNE MER 30 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 10 N HDO 30 NE P07 50 SE ELP ...CONT... 45 SW DMN 50 NNW TUS 40 SE PRC 30 W ABQ 15 N LVS 25 ENE TCC 25 WSW GCK 50 NNW P28 40 NW TYR 10 NNE ESF 15 ENE GWO 45 NNW HSV 30 NNW TYS 20 NW AND 10 N CLT 25 ESE DAN 30 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL INTO SERN GA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE WRN STATES AND NRN STREAM COMBINED WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX TODAY WILL INTERACT TO SUPPORT TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE EPISODES ON DAY 2.../1/ ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND /2/ ACROSS SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PHASE/INTERACT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES AND A RIDGE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE WEST...AS A PAC TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA TO THE PAC NW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN WAS FORECAST WITH THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SERN STATES... AIR MASS ACROSS FL INTO THE FAR SERN STATES WILL MODIFY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD OVER FL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN FL. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA BY 00Z...AIDING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF A SWLY LLJ TO 30-40 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FL. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES STRONGER DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. 55-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE INCREASING LLJ WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. MODELS SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS FL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS RESULTING IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...VERIFYING WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...THEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA TO NC. ...SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN CA/NWRN NV...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES ACROSS NWRN TX BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TOWARD THE TX COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ SURFACE LOW AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ALSO MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IN RELATION TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS HAIL THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD DURING THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY REACH THE TX COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. ..PETERS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 05:13:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 00:13:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502270638.j1R6ce3Y028854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270637 SWODY2 SPC AC 270636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FMY 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 30 E FAY 40 NNW RWI 35 ESE RIC 15 W DOV EWR 20 NNW BID 15 E HYA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN / MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE LOW / FRONTAL POSITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM STILL THE FURTHEST W WITH THE LOW. MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE HOW LONG -- IF AT ALL -- THE FRONT REMAINS ONSHORE OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND WHETHER ANY WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS CAN SNEAK ONSHORE OVER COASTAL NC JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN THE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER SRN FL...BUT CONFINE IT TO EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED...THE NAM IS FURTHEST N WITH ITS FRONTAL POSITION -- AND THUS SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FORM OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS AS WELL AS NCEP SREF OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY / CONDITIONAL SEVERE FORECAST ACROSS THE EVERGLADES / SRN FL FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY / CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS FAR SERN VA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME ERN NC / THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN...MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF LOW CENTER. CONCENSUS FORECAST WOULD PLACE THE LOW ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OR JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AT 28/12Z...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARM SECTOR FROM WORKING ONSHORE. IN THE EVENT THAT LOW WERE FURTHER INLAND...MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS / INTO COASTAL AREAS OF NC / SERN VA. IN THIS SCENARIO...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY INTRODUCTION OF 5% PROBABILITY. ..GOSS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 16:18:10 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 11:18:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502271743.j1RHh7va017767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271740 SWODY2 SPC AC 271739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 35 N FLO 25 N SOP 35 ESE RIC 15 W DOV EWR 20 NNW BID 15 E HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FMY 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BLI 20 NNE EAT 45 SSW GEG 30 E BOI 40 NW OWY 65 WSW BNO 15 ESE MFR 60 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AMPLIFIES SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY TO SERN STATES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM ERN NC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON DAY 2. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE WWD TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THUS...TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF OVER SRN FL AT 28/12Z. SPLIT FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES GIVEN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF WRN NORTH AMERICA. ...SRN FL... AIR MASS OVER SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SSEWD MONDAY MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW /40 KT AT 850 MB AND 50 KT AT 700 MB/. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A CATEGORICAL RISK...WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ...PAC NW... SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO THE RIDGE...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST BY 01/12Z. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-26 C AT 500 MB/ WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PAC NW ON MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER THIS REGION AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT SPREADS NEWD. ..PETERS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 05:56:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 00:56:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502280721.j1S7LaV0022329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280719 SWODY2 SPC AC 280718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MLU ESF 10 SW LFK 30 E TPL 40 E ABI 55 SE CDS 45 WSW END 35 SSW PNC MKO 25 NNE TXK 20 SW MLU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH / LOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO LINGER OVER / INVOF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL / STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THOUGH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AFFECT THE PAC NW LATE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE...MAIN THUNDER THREAT IS EXPECTED IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS... THOUGH LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF LARGE ERN U.S. SURFACE CYCLONE...PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INDUCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- EFFECTIVELY BISECTING SURFACE RIDGE. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE ERN PLAINS...RESULTING GRADIENT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX / OK. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY...WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING -- WITHIN APPROXIMATELY THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER. THIS MOISTENING -- BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL / PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL / N TX INTO OK. BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND PERHAPS INTO N TX...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEVELOP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD EXIST ALONG WITH HAIL -- GIVEN INVERTED-V TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE AND MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO HOWEVER WILL BE THAT STORMS DEVELOP FROM N TX NWD IN AN ELEVATED LAYER ABOVE PERSISTENTLY COOL / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER -- PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR / ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINATION FOR HAIL...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AREA OF LOW / CONDITIONAL HAIL PROBABILITY ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION WHICH MAY OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 15:54:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 10:54:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200502281719.j1SHJD3k018897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281716 SWODY2 SPC AC 281715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LFK 40 ESE ACT 25 WSW SEP 50 NNW ABI 20 SE CDS 25 NNW LTS 10 S OKC 50 NW MLC 10 W PGO 40 N TXK 35 WNW ELD 50 ESE SHV 50 NNW POE 30 WNW LFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION PROCESS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH AN EXTENSIVE BELT OF DEEP LAYER NWLY/WLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GULF. FAST STJ WILL PERSIST FROM BAJA TO FL WITH AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS STREAM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC TO NRN MEXICO. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE SITUATED ON EITHER SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE WESTERNMOST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER WA/ORE...WHILE THE OTHER IMPULSE DROPS SEWD ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS... FROM CO TO THE SRN PLAINS. ...NERN TX/SRN OK... WHILE MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND GENERALLY STABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...WEAK RETURN OF LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FCST ACROSS SCNTRL TX ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINTAINED BY WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...AND FAST SRN STREAM...WILL MAINTAIN ZONE OF DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS TX AND THE NWRN GULF COAST. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AIR PARCELS ORIGINATING IN THE MOIST AXIS ATTAINING AN LFC ABOVE 850MB ACROSS NRN/NERN TX. WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STRONG TSTMS IS POSSIBLE. ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.