[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 311748
SWODY2
SPC AC 311747

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
MKL 20 SSE PAH 25 ENE OWB 10 E SDF 20 W LEX 40 WNW LOZ 30 N CSV 10
WSW CSV CHA 25 S RMG ANB 15 N BHM 35 E TUP 25 N TUP 10 NE MKL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW 7R4 40 SSW HEZ
20 WSW MEM 20 NE POF 30 SSE UIN 15 NNW IRK 10 WNW OXV 20 SSW ALO 25
WNW DBQ 25 ENE RFD JXN 35 N CLE 10 NE YNG 15 ENE PIT 20 SW MGW 50
ENE CRW 10 W BLF 50 N HKY HKY 10 ESE CLT 35 NNE FLO 35 SSE FAY 10 NE
ILM 45 ESE ILM ...CONT... 30 ENE DAB 60 S CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE UIL 20 SSE AST
30 ESE OTH 45 ESE CEC 45 SE EKA UKI 50 NNW SFO 10 SSE SFO 20 NW MRY
50 SSW MRY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND THE
TN VALLEY AREA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR AS INCESSANT
SERIES OF INTENSE PACIFIC DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND
INLAND. PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN CA AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BROAD BAND OF 80-100KT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
IMPULSE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND RESULT IN LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM
THE MO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

...NCNTRL GULF COAST TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
BROAD WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXISTENCE OF MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE CLOSE TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WILL SUPPORT
A STRONG INLAND INFLUX OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN MODEST
INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE SLOPED ASCENT AND MOISTENING WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO OVERCOME
WEAKER INHIBITION FROM IND/OH SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL. GIVEN MODEST
UPSTREAM DESTABILIZATION/LAPSE RATES.

INCREASINGLY INTENSE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY AFTER DARK. THIS PROCESS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK OF
NEAR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS RESIDUAL CAPPING
INVERSION/INHIBITION IS ELIMINATED. GFS...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...BOTH APPEAR TO SUGGEST CONVECTION BACKBUILDING
ACROSS PARTS OF KY AND THE TN VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING 60KT ACROSS THESE AREAS...WARM FRONT WILL FURTHER
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCUS FOR SUPERCELLS IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN ANTICIPATED MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING...AND PROXIMITY OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...EXPECT POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS ROTATING STORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 12/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM